Airline Pilot Forums

Airline Pilot Forums was designed to be a community where working airline pilots can share ideas and information about the aviation field. In the forum you will find information about major and regional airline carriers, career training, interview and job seeker help, finance, and living the airline pilot lifestyle.




View Full Version : Class dates


SkyNation
07-24-2017, 04:19 AM
How often are they? Monthly?
Dates for upcoming classes?
How many in each?


Warhawg01
07-24-2017, 04:38 AM
3-4 per month. I think they now start on Tuesday. Around 28 per class.

Hiring around 900 this year and 1000 next year.

PropPiedmont
07-24-2017, 10:09 AM
494 hired this year so far, including the 7/18/17 class. Don't know how many of those are still employed at SWA.

Hiring projection from SWAPA shows 292 more new hire slots for the remainder of the year.

So it looks like it'll be close to 786 new hires for 2017.

Remaining New Hire Slots per month
AUG 2017 - 100
SEP 2017 - 48
OCT 2017 - 72
NOV 2017 - 48
DEC 2017 - 24


captkirk3000
07-24-2017, 12:51 PM
Any idea on Sept and Oct class dates?

NorskAir
07-24-2017, 12:58 PM
Latest hiring projection from the training center is 915 for the year, they have added an additional class for Sept through Dec.

494 hired this year so far, including the 7/18/17 class. Don't know how many of those are still employed at SWA.

Hiring projection from SWAPA shows 292 more new hire slots for the remainder of the year.

So it looks like it'll be close to 786 new hires for 2017.

Remaining New Hire Slots per month
AUG 2017 - 100
SEP 2017 - 48
OCT 2017 - 72
NOV 2017 - 48
DEC 2017 - 24

captkirk3000
07-24-2017, 02:17 PM
Ok so no known class dates for Sept and Oct yet?

ANGFlight81
07-24-2017, 02:59 PM
Interesting they are ramping up hiring; right as we begin retiring the classics.
Hmmmmmmmmm....

WHACKMASTER
07-24-2017, 06:07 PM
Interesting they are ramping up hiring; right as we begin retiring the classics.
Hmmmmmmmmm....

Yup. The only thing that makes sense to me is a flood of red-eye flights (like a hundred per night off the West Coast).

Woodbourne23
07-24-2017, 06:14 PM
Yup. The only thing that makes sense to me is a flood of red-eye flights (like a hundred per night off the West Coast).
Red eyes won't be ready till 2019

bitatasg
07-25-2017, 03:56 AM
Ok so no known class dates for Sept and Oct yet?

3 of the 4 Tuesday's in September and 4 of the 5 in October would be a pretty strong guess.

captkirk3000
07-25-2017, 05:05 AM
3 of the 4 Tuesday's in September and 4 of the 5 in October would be a pretty strong guess.


Thanks, looking forward to the concrete date!

PropPiedmont
07-25-2017, 06:59 AM
Latest hiring projection from the training center is 915 for the year, they have added an additional class for Sept through Dec.

Wow! 421 more new hires in the next 5 months. That's 85ish per month or a new hire class starting every week, minus the holiday weeks, through years end. Hope that means the upgrade numbers are increasing too.

SkyNation
07-25-2017, 07:59 AM
what percentage do they run reserves at? Like 15%?

TexasFlight
07-25-2017, 08:16 AM
According to SWAPA they are running 24 upgrades per month, which isnt much but it does provide a trickle of movement. It will be interesting to see what upgrade time starts to look like in the next 3-5 years as the folks pushed down by the Airtran merger get their number called. As for Reserves, contractually its 8% of total lines with RSV lines being awarded along with hard lines on the 9th of every month.

WHACKMASTER
07-25-2017, 09:29 PM
According to SWAPA they are running 24 upgrades per month, which isnt much but it does provide a trickle of movement. It will be interesting to see what upgrade time starts to look like in the next 3-5 years as the folks pushed down by the Airtran merger get their number called. As for Reserves, contractually its 8% of total lines with RSV lines being awarded along with hard lines on the 9th of every month.

"Pushed down from the AirTran merger"? When you have zero deliveries and growth scheduled, gain an average of 8% relative seniority by the "merger", "capture" ALL of our cptn seats, how can you claim to be "pushed down"?!

Let's keep the facts straight. GMAFB!!!!

itsmytime
07-26-2017, 03:48 AM
"Pushed down from the AirTran merger"? When you have zero deliveries and growth scheduled, gain an average of 8% relative seniority by the "merger", "capture" ALL of our cptn seats, how can you claim to be "pushed down"?!

Let's keep the facts straight. GMAFB!!!!

I thought it was the AirTran guys he was referring to. LOL!

TexasFlight
07-26-2017, 06:32 AM
"Pushed down from the AirTran merger"? When you have zero deliveries and growth scheduled, gain an average of 8% relative seniority by the "merger", "capture" ALL of our cptn seats, how can you claim to be "pushed down"?!

Let's keep the facts straight. GMAFB!!!!

I'm still an FNG so it was more anecdotal on my part than anything. While I wasn't trying to place blame on either "group" my buddies whom were hired by SWA and reside in the 90K range all cite that one event(merger) as the cause of their 12-14 year upgrade.

My hope is lessons were learned from that experience.

Indyjetav8er
07-26-2017, 06:40 AM
Based on the growth numbers they are staying at the interviews. Some one starting today could be at 50% in 10 years.


Sent from my iPhone using Tapatalk

MudhammedCJ
07-26-2017, 07:56 AM
"Pushed down from the AirTran merger"? When you have zero deliveries and growth scheduled, gain an average of 8% relative seniority by the "merger", "capture" ALL of our cptn seats, how can you claim to be "pushed down"?!

Let's keep the facts straight. GMAFB!!!!
Why don't you go send a few cases of wine to your girl Claire. Without her you likely wouldn't even be on the bottom.

ZapBrannigan
07-26-2017, 08:31 AM
Based on the growth numbers they are staying at the interviews. Some one starting today could be at 50% in 10 years.


Wait... let me stop laughing for a second and share with you some of the things I've been told during interviews, indocs, etc over the last 20 years or so.

- You're all going to be captains in 5 years
- We had to hire the best of the best because the upgrade time is so quick
- This is the last uniform that you will ever wear
- You just won the lottery
- Airlines don't furlough to profitability

https://media.giphy.com/media/QgixZj4y3TwnS/giphy.gif



Sent from my iPad using Tapatalk

ZapBrannigan
07-26-2017, 08:39 AM
Here is a random newhire (hired last month). He has about 22 years until retirement. Based on retirements only, here is when he would reach 56% system seniority based on a 1% growth rate. Just short of January of 2030 - about 12.5 years.

https://uploads.tapatalk-cdn.com/20170726/7ed41e4bc45c8f118a2739ebacd3873c.png


Sent from my iPad using Tapatalk

Peacock
07-26-2017, 08:55 AM
Here is a random newhire (hired last month). He has about 22 years until retirement. Based on retirements only, here is when he would reach 56% system seniority based on a 1% growth rate. Just short of January of 2030 - about 12.5 years.

https://uploads.tapatalk-cdn.com/20170726/7ed41e4bc45c8f118a2739ebacd3873c.png


Sent from my iPad using Tapatalk
Is 56% what's required to hold CA? Aren't there some who never upgrade, and of course others who retire prior to 65?

ANGFlight81
07-26-2017, 09:36 AM
Here is a random newhire (hired last month). He has about 22 years until retirement. Based on retirements only, here is when he would reach 56% system seniority based on a 1% growth rate. Just short of January of 2030 - about 12.5 years.

https://uploads.tapatalk-cdn.com/20170726/7ed41e4bc45c8f118a2739ebacd3873c.png


Sent from my iPad using Tapatalk

Cool. I was hired last year and have something like 1400 pilots beneath me; 1000 more in 2017, 1000 more in 2018.

My point is, where are you coming up with 1% growth? Mail me that crystal ball of yours, too many factors.

ZapBrannigan
07-26-2017, 10:55 AM
My point is, where are you coming up with 1% growth? Mail me that crystal ball of yours, too many factors.


A couple of ways. First, I looked at the annual report for the last few years. They typically advertise around 2-3% capacity growth. But remember, capacity growth doesn't necessarily mean more airplanes. The 737-800 holds about 19% more passengers than the 737-700 (or 300). So capacity growth CAN be transparent to pilots.

Here is an excerpt from the annual report.

"The Company currently plans to grow its 2017 available seat miles approximately 3.5 percent, year- over-year, with approximately 2.5 points of that increase relating to domestic growth."

Secondly, I figured the company would eventually max out at between 10,000 and 11,000 pilots. (Speculating based on the number of pilots at mature carriers like AA, DAL, UA that have reached the limits of their growth) So 1% growth over the next 22 years would yield around 11,000 pilots. Granted we might reach that number sooner, which would naturally alter how quickly someone reaches that percentage.

It's all a wag. Nobody has a crystal ball. (I was forecast to retire number 1 at Legacy Brand X when I was hired there 18 years ago. Stuff happens) But I think it is responsible to use a conservative model to forecast upgrade when you're making your decision about where to apply. 1% growth is certainly modest and conservative. No way to know how many pilots actually make it to age 65 or punch out early. As the group ages and more pilots earn 5 weeks of vacation per year (at least 15 weeks with overlap corrections) it will alter the staffing model too.

But anyway... that's how I got the number I used for our little pencil to paper example of how long upgrade COULD take for someone hired today.




Sent from my iPad using Tapatalk

ZapBrannigan
07-26-2017, 10:58 AM
Just for the heck of it, here is the same guy with a projected upgrade at 60% and 3% growth per year. It's at least fair to look at both projections.

https://uploads.tapatalk-cdn.com/20170726/62174482a17960a4b18597704e5a64e7.png


Sent from my iPad using Tapatalk

ANGFlight81
07-26-2017, 11:14 AM
A couple of ways. First, I looked at the annual report for the last few years. They typically advertise around 2-3% capacity growth. But remember, capacity growth doesn't necessarily mean more airplanes. The 737-800 holds about 19% more passengers than the 737-700 (or 300). So capacity growth CAN be transparent to pilots.

Here is an excerpt from the annual report.

"The Company currently plans to grow its 2017 available seat miles approximately 3.5 percent, year- over-year, with approximately 2.5 points of that increase relating to domestic growth."

Secondly, I figured the company would eventually max out at between 10,000 and 11,000 pilots. (Speculating based on the number of pilots at mature carriers like AA, DAL, UA that have reached the limits of their growth) So 1% growth over the next 22 years would yield around 11,000 pilots. Granted we might reach that number sooner, which would naturally alter how quickly someone reaches that percentage.

It's all a wag. Nobody has a crystal ball. (I was forecast to retire number 1 at Legacy Brand X when I was hired there 18 years ago. Stuff happens) But I think it is responsible to use a conservative model to forecast upgrade when you're making your decision about where to apply. 1% growth is certainly modest and conservative. No way to know how many pilots actually make it to age 65 or punch out early. As the group ages and more pilots earn 5 weeks of vacation per year (at least 15 weeks with overlap corrections) it will alter the staffing model too.

But anyway... that's how I got the number I used for our little pencil to paper example of how long upgrade COULD take for someone hired today.




Sent from my iPad using Tapatalk

Fair enough. It's all timing...

Tao of Funk
07-26-2017, 11:15 AM
Just for the heck of it, here is the same guy with a projected upgrade at 60% and 3% growth per year. It's at least fair to look at both projections.

Thank you for posting, it's good info regardless.

GWY320
07-26-2017, 11:19 AM
Sent from my iPhone using Tapatalk

e6bpilot
07-26-2017, 12:48 PM
Good info by all (except Whack, let it go dude). Zap always has a very realistic and reality based outlook. His crystal ball sucks a lot less than mine.
A wag of about 10 years to upgrade for someone hired now is pretty close imo. The 5 year numbers that I have heard recently coming out of the training center are a complete fabrication and there is just no way it can happen.
As long as the economy keeps ticking along, I suspect we will grow slightly more than projected in the annual report just like we have over the last 3-4 years.
Of course, age 67, another merger, an economic downturn, etc can throw the proverbial wrench in all of this.
If it doesn't happen then oh well. Being a FO here is not a bad gig as long as you aren't wound too tight. I don't base my happiness on which seat I sit in (BTDT just like everyone else here) and to do so is foolish IMO.

ZapBrannigan
07-26-2017, 01:18 PM
Being a FO here is not a bad gig


True. It's all in how you look at it. I have an 11 year old boy, so I have made the commitment to my family that EVEN IF upgrade were available today, I would not bid it until he graduates from high school.

Why? Because seniority in the right seat insures that I will be able to be home for all of the ball games, karate tournaments, father and son potato sack races, science fairs, graduations, dances, etc. Hopefully it means I'll be able to get some summer vacations before he is too old to think vacationing with the parents is cool. It means if I can't be off on Christmas, I can sure as heck get home Christmas morning before the family even changes out of their pajamas. And on July 4th I'll be home long before the fireworks start.

If you add up all of the places I've worked, I've been a copilot for about 19 years. I don't own an airplane or a boat. I don't have a pool with a grotto. But we do ok. And all of the toys in the world isn't worth being gone for all of the "firsts" that you experience being a parent.

It also makes it so I have zero stress about a lengthy upgrade time. If we're at Delta today, there is no way I'd be bidding one of those junior Captain positions. Any position that 6000 FOs say "eh... thanks anyway" I probably don't want anyway!

So on the off chance that an upgrade becomes available before around May 2024, you can count on me bypassing it.




Sent from my iPad using Tapatalk

RJSAviator76
07-26-2017, 02:17 PM
Personally, I don't use myseniority.com for anything other than domicile seniority snapshot. We are hiring far too many for this to show any accurate information using 1-2% numbers. Besides, these percentage points aren't referring to the airline growth, they're referring to our seniority list growth. Until that stabilizes, it's anyone's guess.

Here's what I do, and maybe some math major can correct me, but I take a WAG on total pilots on seniority list by a specific date in near future and then adjust growth rate to meet that number, and take a snapshot. For example, I've heard things like 11,000 pilots by 2020. I guestimate the growth rate until a date chosen on that chart matches with around 11,000 pilots, then you can have some idea of where you'll stand if that happens at that point.

One thing is for sure - timing is everything.

ANGFlight81
07-26-2017, 03:42 PM
Personally, I don't use myseniority.com for anything other than domicile seniority snapshot. We are hiring far too many for this to show any accurate information using 1-2% numbers. Besides, these percentage points aren't referring to the airline growth, they're referring to our seniority list growth. Until that stabilizes, it's anyone's guess.

Here's what I do, and maybe some math major can correct me, but I take a WAG on total pilots on seniority list by a specific date in near future and then adjust growth rate to meet that number, and take a snapshot. For example, I've heard things like 11,000 pilots by 2020. I guestimate the growth rate until a date chosen on that chart matches with around 11,000 pilots, then you can have some idea of where you'll stand if that happens at that point.

One thing is for sure - timing is everything.

^^^This^^^

WHACKMASTER
07-26-2017, 04:25 PM
If you run the numbers and the company hires the 950 they're claiming to this year plus a thousand next year, we'll be just a touch over 10,000 by the end of 2018 after subtracting out the retirements left this year and all of next year.

ZapBrannigan
07-26-2017, 05:06 PM
If you run the numbers and the company hires the 950 they're claiming to this year plus a thousand next year, we'll be just a touch over 10,000 by the end of 2018 after subtracting out the retirements left this year and all of next year.


And I still won't be able to hold summer vacation! [emoji23]


Sent from my iPad using Tapatalk

e6bpilot
07-26-2017, 05:11 PM
And I still won't be able to hold summer vacation! [emoji23]


Sent from my iPad using Tapatalk



Quit whining! You're a socialist! You just want what I earned! Rabble rabble!

ZapBrannigan
07-26-2017, 05:46 PM
Quit whining! You're a socialist! You just want what I earned! Rabble rabble!


http://gph.is/1dFR3GF


Sent from my iPhone using Tapatalk

WHACKMASTER
07-26-2017, 05:48 PM
And I still won't be able to hold summer vacation! [emoji23]


Sent from my iPad using Tapatalk

Weren't we supposed to be voting on whether or not to get rid of block bidding vacations?

ZapBrannigan
07-26-2017, 06:06 PM
Weren't we supposed to be voting on whether or not to get rid of block bidding vacations?


We are in Nov.


Sent from my iPhone using Tapatalk

WHACKMASTER
07-26-2017, 06:21 PM
We are in Nov.


Sent from my iPhone using Tapatalk

Block bidding two weeks max per round seems like a fair compromise to me.

tanker
07-27-2017, 05:37 AM
Since just about everything that AirTran did was better than what SWA does they should do the vacation bidding the way AirTran did it. One round of biddiding done by pure seniority, at least AirTran didn't do block bids.

e6bpilot
07-27-2017, 06:37 AM
Block bidding two weeks max per round seems like a fair compromise to me.



I am personally in the any two weeks camp. The vast majority of pilots here don't want two consecutive weeks of vacation because it is pointless to have two consecutive weeks of vacation. If we started bidding for what we intended to actually use, these stupid shenanigans with bidding and trading to your cartel buddies or sugar daddies would stop and you would see a more equitable spread of vacation throughout the list.
I am all about seniority. The super senior should absolutely get the weeks of vacation they desire. They can do that, however, without block bidding 5 weeks of summer vacation that they will not use just to turn around and trade them out of seniority to their buddies. I once flew with a guy and watched him trade into a summer week for 5 buddy passes. Wtf? How is that any different than paying someone cash?

e6bpilot
07-27-2017, 06:38 AM
Since just about everything that AirTran did was better than what SWA does they should do the vacation bidding the way AirTran did it. One round of biddiding done by pure seniority, at least AirTran didn't do block bids.



Surely you can't be serious.

ZapBrannigan
07-27-2017, 10:39 AM
I am personally in the any two weeks camp. The vast majority of pilots here don't want two consecutive weeks of vacation because it is pointless to have two consecutive weeks of vacation. If we started bidding for what we intended to actually use, these stupid shenanigans with bidding and trading to your cartel buddies or sugar daddies would stop and you would see a more equitable spread of vacation throughout the list.
I am all about seniority. The super senior should absolutely get the weeks of vacation they desire. They can do that, however, without block bidding 5 weeks of summer vacation that they will not use just to turn around and trade them out of seniority to their buddies. I once flew with a guy and watched him trade into a summer week for 5 buddy passes. Wtf? How is that any different than paying someone cash?



YES YES YES 1000 TIMES YES!!! But jeebus forgive that I suggest such a thing on the line or the forums. How dare I take away their little cottage industry of using vacation weeks as currency... [emoji35]


Sent from my iPad using Tapatalk

tanker
07-27-2017, 10:53 AM
Surely you can't be serious.
I kept hearing how much better everything was done at AirTran compared to what is done at SWA. So if that is the case I thought I would throw out the idea of how they did vacation bidding.
In reality I believe that 2 weeks of block bidding or bidding any 2 weeks in the 1st round would be fair.

RJSAviator76
07-27-2017, 03:18 PM
1,001 FO's can hold captain and are bypassing right now. Plug captain is now at 61.9% seniority as of Sep 1 vacancy bid. Interesting...

For those with class dates and applying, the new-hires hitting the line and done with IOE went to BWI, MDW, OAK, MCO and it still looks like one should be able to hold anything within 2-3 months from hitting the line with the exception of ATL.

e6bpilot
07-27-2017, 03:50 PM
1,001 FO's can hold captain and are bypassing right now. Plug captain is now at 61.9% seniority as of Sep 1 vacancy bid. Interesting...



For those with class dates and applying, the new-hires hitting the line and done with IOE went to BWI, MDW, OAK, MCO and it still looks like one should be able to hold anything within 2-3 months from hitting the line with the exception of ATL.



ATL is rapidly approaching the bottom of the AirTran FOs. There were a few 6 digit guys who got in there this bid. I would say a couple more good months like this and all the tran guys who want back will get there. Many of them have moved to other bases. ATL is finally growing a bit, albeit slowly.
Once this happens, ATL is going to start going a lot more junior. I wouldn't be surprised to see it even out into a Denver type of base in the next couple of years.

GatorHog
07-27-2017, 05:47 PM
I am personally in the any two weeks camp. The vast majority of pilots here don't want two consecutive weeks of vacation because it is pointless to have two consecutive weeks of vacation. If we started bidding for what we intended to actually use, these stupid shenanigans with bidding and trading to your cartel buddies or sugar daddies would stop and you would see a more equitable spread of vacation throughout the list.
I am all about seniority. The super senior should absolutely get the weeks of vacation they desire. They can do that, however, without block bidding 5 weeks of summer vacation that they will not use just to turn around and trade them out of seniority to their buddies. I once flew with a guy and watched him trade into a summer week for 5 buddy passes. Wtf? How is that any different than paying someone cash?
YES YES YES 1000 TIMES YES!!! But jeebus forgive that I suggest such a thing on the line or the forums. How dare I take away their little cottage industry of using vacation weeks as currency... [emoji35]

What, if anything, is stopping the bottom ~60% of the seniority list from fixing this? Or do you guys think this is that what's likely about to happen with the vote in November? From the outside looking in it seems like a no brainier to vote in a new system that, while still allowing the most senior to get the vacation they want/deserve, is more equitable across the board.

e6bpilot
07-27-2017, 05:58 PM
What, if anything, is stopping the bottom ~60% of the seniority list from fixing this? Or do you guys think this is that what's likely about to happen with the vote in November? From the outside looking in it seems like a no brainier to vote in a new system that, while still allowing the most senior to get the vacation they want/deserve, is more equitable across the board.



It's going to change. There is no doubt. It isn't even the bottom 60 percent. It's more like the bottom 70-75 percent.
The union proposed a change a few years ago in a very "old swapa" way of doing things. They put out a survey. It was the modern equivalent of "Saddam yes or Saddam no?" and was (not shockingly) found to be inconclusive. Enough guys called BS to have the new regime put out a well thought out and researched education piece and set up a vote that will actually impose the will of the majority.
I am still relatively junior and I don't expect a summer week or Christmas. That will come in time. I just hate the current system as it stands. It is (in my opinion) corrupt and not being used as it was intended.

GatorHog
07-27-2017, 07:28 PM
It's going to change. There is no doubt. It isn't even the bottom 60 percent. It's more like the bottom 70-75 percent.
The union proposed a change a few years ago in a very "old swapa" way of doing things. They put out a survey. It was the modern equivalent of "Saddam yes or Saddam no?" and was (not shockingly) found to be inconclusive. Enough guys called BS to have the new regime put out a well thought out and researched education piece and set up a vote that will actually impose the will of the majority.
I am still relatively junior and I don't expect a summer week or Christmas. That will come in time. I just hate the current system as it stands. It is (in my opinion) corrupt and not being used as it was intended.

Good to hear common sense is hopefully about to prevail.

ZapBrannigan
07-28-2017, 01:37 AM
It may not matter. Even if the group overwhelmingly votes to change the company may come back and ask for concessions in exchange. Especially if they determine that doing so will increase their costs. Plus whatever burden costs they have in reprogramming the scheduling software to the new system.

Hopefully they wouldn't fight us on this, but if recent history is any indication, nothing is free.


Sent from my iPhone using Tapatalk

hoover
07-29-2017, 08:16 PM
Implementation date: 3rd quater 2021.
Also a lot of guys bypass in the vacation bidding month. Oct should be more accurate for upgrades.

Peacock
07-30-2017, 03:38 PM
How does seniority within a class get decided? Age? I assume you still bid amongst a class for initial domiciles?

e6bpilot
07-30-2017, 04:08 PM
Implementation date: 3rd quater 2021.

Also a lot of guys bypass in the vacation bidding month. Oct should be more accurate for upgrades.



Good point. It's actually pretty dumb to upgrade in a vacation bid month.

ROFF
07-30-2017, 04:19 PM
How does seniority within a class get decided? Age? I assume you still bid amongst a class for initial domiciles?

Rock-Paper-Scissors tournament.

#bestdayoftrainingever

e6bpilot
07-30-2017, 04:20 PM
How does seniority within a class get decided? Age? I assume you still bid amongst a class for initial domiciles?



Age.
There will be up to 4 classes in a bid period. Being in the most senior class will help tremendously. The junior class almost always goes to the junior base in its entirety.

Psycho18th
07-30-2017, 04:46 PM
Age.
There will be up to 4 classes in a bid period. Being in the most senior class will help tremendously. The junior class almost always goes to the junior base in its entirety.

So with a 1 Aug start date, is that the senior class for the month, or does it depend on a finish date and when bidding for the following month occurs?

flyguy81
07-30-2017, 06:19 PM
So with a 1 Aug start date, is that the senior class for the month, or does it depend on a finish date and when bidding for the following month occurs?

The last class in July will prob be the sr class since I don't think they were on the Sept bid. So 8/1 will be in the middle/jr class. Might have another class behind that depending on their start date.

TheRealQuixote
07-31-2017, 03:20 AM
Class dates are Aug 8, 22, 29, Sept 12 so far from what I understand...

flyguy81
07-31-2017, 05:31 AM
Class dates are Aug 8, 22, 29, Sept 12 so far from what I understand...

If that's true then the last July and 1st 2 classes in aug should be on the Oct bid. The last 2 Aug and first Sept would prob be on the Nov bid.

WDEInTexas
07-31-2017, 05:55 AM
The next class after 1 August is 8 August then a two week gap until the third one.

GatorHog
07-31-2017, 06:34 AM
If that's true then the last July and 1st 2 classes in aug should be on the Oct bid. The last 2 Aug and first Sept would prob be on the Nov bid.

I know a guy in the July 18th class and he said they'll put in bids in Aug for Oct, also. Sounds like their class will be the most senior in that group of new classes.

flyguy81
07-31-2017, 02:27 PM
I know a guy in the July 18th class and he said they'll put in bids in Aug for Oct, also. Sounds like their class will be the most senior in that group of new classes.

The cutoff is usually around then so could go either way. If you spend most of the month in training I think you get the temp base vs get on the vacancy bid. My class was earlier in the month and we did IOE the end of the prev month to the first week of the next month and we bid on the vacancy bid. Class that started the week behind us got the temp base and they started IOE around the same time.

Edpilot23
07-31-2017, 07:37 PM
What are the junior bases? How long before holding a line? How is training pay? I'm sorry this must be covered somewhere else but I'm new :D:D

Peacock
07-31-2017, 07:57 PM
2.9 tfp per day for a 30 day month at 67.32 per

e6bpilot
07-31-2017, 08:20 PM
What are the junior bases? How long before holding a line? How is training pay? I'm sorry this must be covered somewhere else but I'm new :D:D


The junior base thing has been covered ad nauseam. All bases except ATL are all relatively junior and can be held in three months time. Start at the coasts and work inward for relative juniority.
Training pay is min guarantee for the month. It should come out to a little over 6k gross. No perdiem in training but hotel is covered.

TerrainTerrain
08-08-2017, 11:27 AM
For the lucky new gals and guys, how far back are classes going? They into October yet?

Peacock
08-08-2017, 12:03 PM
They seem to be giving class dates about a month after CJO. I got the call on July 26th and start August 22nd

captkirk3000
08-14-2017, 05:17 PM
Does anyone have the dates for the upcoming classes after 8/29?

v1valarob
08-15-2017, 05:02 AM
does anyone have the dates for the upcoming classes after 8/29?

9/12, 9/19

captkirk3000
08-15-2017, 10:59 AM
Awesome, thanks!

CODs4ever
08-15-2017, 03:50 PM
They seem to be giving class dates about a month after CJO. I got the call on July 26th and start August 22nd

We'll be there to welcome you on Monday night. Congrats!

SINCE
08-16-2017, 08:14 AM
Looking for some insight to reserve at SWA.

What could a new hire in BWI expect for number of reserve days in a row/monthly total?

How long is callout? Short-call and/or long-call available?

AM vs. PM reserve exist?

How likely would scheduling allow a newb to pick up OT on days off?

Interviewing in September and trying to gain a foothold if I do well.

Thanks all.

Kilroy
08-16-2017, 08:52 AM
Looking for some insight to reserve at SWA.

What could a new hire in BWI expect for number of reserve days in a row/monthly total?

How long is callout? Short-call and/or long-call available?

AM vs. PM reserve exist?

How likely would scheduling allow a newb to pick up OT on days off?

Interviewing in September and trying to gain a foothold if I do well.

Thanks all.

When did you apply? How soon after applying did you get the interview invite?

Warhawg01
08-16-2017, 09:06 AM
15-16 Days of Reserve per month. The line you bid will not have more than a four day block. Can go up to six in month-month overlap correction, though. But you can make one of those days non-RON.

Yes. AM and PM reserves. In my base, AMs start at 0330 and PMs start at 1100

There is only 2-hour call out for reserves. No long call.

Yes, you can bid whatever OT you want and you'll get what your seniority can hold. As a first year, bid OT time trips at straight pay. You'll be awarded the trip over all the dudes bidding premium pay for it and you'll get near premium pay (actually, you get paid second year pay for OT picked up from the company, and that is pretty close to premium).

RJSAviator76
08-16-2017, 09:25 AM
Yes, you can bid whatever OT you want and you'll get what your seniority can hold. As a first year, bid OT time trips at straight pay. You'll be awarded the trip over all the dudes bidding premium pay for it and you'll get near premium pay (actually, you get paid second year pay for OT picked up from the company, and that is pretty close to premium).



Actually, that's a little misleading.

Pay attention to monthly caps... if you're under the cap, you'll beat out a number 1 FO bidding for the same trip if he's over the cap. Seniority only applies if you're both in the same category - both over or both under the cap. I rarely flew at straight during my first year.

Anything you pick up from Open Time above your original line value pays second year pay.

If you pick up at premium, you get premium value at 2nd year rate.

If you pick up at straight time, you get straight value at 2nd year rate.

If you pick up reserve block from Open Time system, you get 2nd year pay for anything that happens during that reserve block. In other words, if you fly, anything that trip pays will pay you at 2nd year. Or if you don't fly at all, you get 6 TFP per day at 2nd year rate.

SINCE
08-16-2017, 10:32 AM
When did you apply? How soon after applying did you get the interview invite?

Applied August 1. OBAP August 10th. Invite August 11

ZapBrannigan
08-22-2017, 05:35 AM
For those who are new to 121: a friend of mine was given the opportunity to attend a class on short notice, about a month earlier than planned. This will put him ahead of around 60 other pilots on the seniority list vs attending the later class. Just to give you an example of how many pilots that is, in Dallas in September there are 61 reserve lines.

Seniority is everything. The more senior you are the quicker you get off reserve, get weekday flying, avoid working holidays, earn premium open time. It is also increases the buffer between you and any potential furlough. So, without trying to sound preachy, take the earliest class you can!


Sent from my iPhone using Tapatalk

Twinjetav8r
08-22-2017, 05:41 AM
For those who are new to 121: a friend of mine was given the opportunity to attend a class on short notice, about a month earlier than planned. This will put him ahead of around 60 other pilots on the seniority list vs attending the later class. Just to give you an example of how many pilots that is, in Dallas in September there are 61 reserve lines.

Seniority is everything. The more senior you are the quicker you get off reserve, get weekday flying, avoid working holidays, earn premium open time. It is also increases the buffer between you and any potential furlough. So, without trying to sound preachy, take the earliest class you can!


Sent from my iPhone using Tapatalk



I wonder who that could be??[emoji12][emoji12]

ZapBrannigan
08-22-2017, 04:38 PM
I wonder who that could be??[emoji12][emoji12]


I can't say. You know how secretive pilots are. This one will let the world know when he/she is ready. [emoji1]


Sent from my iPad using Tapatalk

4myfamily
08-25-2017, 05:30 AM
Will someone please most junior line holder and junior reserve for ATL FO? Curious how long it would take to hold ATL. Thank you

howardhughes8
08-25-2017, 06:14 AM
Will someone please most junior line holder and junior reserve for ATL FO? Curious how long it would take to hold ATL. Thank you


Here you go:

3245

slavetotheman
08-25-2017, 06:29 AM
Will someone please most junior line holder and junior reserve for ATL FO? Curious how long it would take to hold ATL. Thank you

At this point, you would need about 10 years worth of seniority to hold ATL as the FO plug. It is a smaller base with lots of pilots still trying to get in. If ATL is a must have for you, Delta may be a better career goal. Best of luck!

e6bpilot
08-25-2017, 06:46 AM
ATL is going to start going a lot more junior. It is growing at a snails pace, true, but they have been slowly growing the base and the flying out of ATL.
Last bid saw six digit former AirTran folks getting into ATL. They represent the bottom of the AirTran seniority list. Many trannies have moved to another base or accepted upgrade as a commuter. There will be a little filling in with guys wanting lines, etc, but there will also be guys upgrading.
I would not be surprised in the least if I was able to hold ATL in the next year and I have only been here 3 years. It is going to be relatively senior for a while, but like MCO and PHX, it will eventually be a senior base with junior guys holding it.
Just my prediction.

4myfamily
08-25-2017, 08:36 AM
ATL is going to start going a lot more junior. It is growing at a snails pace, true, but they have been slowly growing the base and the flying out of ATL.
Last bid saw six digit former AirTran folks getting into ATL. They represent the bottom of the AirTran seniority list. Many trannies have moved to another base or accepted upgrade as a commuter. There will be a little filling in with guys wanting lines, etc, but there will also be guys upgrading.
I would not be surprised in the least if I was able to hold ATL in the next year and I have only been here 3 years. It is going to be relatively senior for a while, but like MCO and PHX, it will eventually be a senior base with junior guys holding it.
Just my prediction.

Thanks to everyone for the info. I'd rather two leg commute to work for SW then drive to work in ATL for Delta.

ZapBrannigan
08-25-2017, 12:53 PM
Will someone please most junior line holder and junior reserve for ATL FO? Curious how long it would take to hold ATL. Thank you


Let me put it this way. Here's a pic of the last guy to hold ATL first officer.

https://uploads.tapatalk-cdn.com/20170825/12a00784fec37209a235396ef8daa4e4.jpg



Sent from my iPad using Tapatalk

Tenacvols
08-25-2017, 04:21 PM
Let me put it this way. Here's a pic of the last guy to hold ATL first officer.

https://uploads.tapatalk-cdn.com/20170825/12a00784fec37209a235396ef8daa4e4.jpg



Sent from my iPad using Tapatalk

Why is he in the left seat?

Twinjetav8r
08-25-2017, 05:47 PM
https://uploads.tapatalk-cdn.com/20170826/8a8f142680241d96b60a9d295f69b357.jpg

ZapBrannigan
08-26-2017, 01:20 AM
Why is he in the left seat?


Because he can hold Captain in the other bases. [emoji6]


Sent from my iPhone using Tapatalk

CODs4ever
08-26-2017, 03:22 AM
Thanks to everyone for the info. I'd rather two leg commute to work for SW then drive to work in ATL for Delta.

Ouch!

Of course even if you lived in Atlanta and commuted to another base for a few years you could still pick up open time there at home.

captkirk3000
08-26-2017, 03:40 AM
Any new base rumors?

Was told during my interview FLL and STL are strong possibilities!

flyguy81
08-26-2017, 06:57 AM
FLL growth is being covered for the time being by MCO which is one reason new hires are now getting it. So if I had to guess STL would be a base before FLL.

I think we do more departures/day out of STL then we did out of LAS or DEN when those became bases.

at6d
08-26-2017, 11:31 AM
New domicile rumors are STL, MCI, LAX, and FLL.

New mini-domicile rumors are FLL, LAX.

Most think LAX as a base won't happen because of $$$.

Obvious new service from West Coast will be Hawaii, likely from SMF, OAK, LAX, and/or SEA.

Look for new routes to Latin America and Canada.

MountainWaves
08-26-2017, 07:57 PM
Ouch!

Of course even if you lived in Atlanta and commuted to another base for a few years you could still pick up open time there at home.

When the rochambeau champ of SWA flyday speaks...people listen:D

Loon
08-28-2017, 10:37 PM
Let me put it this way. Here's a pic of the last guy to hold ATL first officer.

https://uploads.tapatalk-cdn.com/20170825/12a00784fec37209a235396ef8daa4e4.jpg



Sent from my iPad using Tapatalk

Zap, just spit out my beer!
Thanks for the lol!

Neosporin
09-03-2017, 08:59 AM
Are there classes every Tuesday from here on out?
The last post about classes were Sept 12 and 19.
Thx

Sqwk7700
09-03-2017, 12:37 PM
Are there classes every Tuesday from here on out?

The last post about classes were Sept 12 and 19.

Thx



I think they're only running 2 classes in Sept.

Neosporin
09-03-2017, 01:28 PM
I think they're only running 2 classes in Sept.

after... the rest of the year

Woodbourne23
09-04-2017, 01:36 PM
after... the rest of the year

600 new hires thus far in 2017. 186 more divided by 24 is about 8 classes, so two per month

Neosporin
09-04-2017, 01:44 PM
Cheers woody! Thanks
I'm curious of dates, but sincerely Thx!

SINCE
09-10-2017, 08:07 AM
Previous posts are claiming 2 classes per month for rest of 2017. Anyone know when they might be for October and November?

Thanks!

flyguy81
09-10-2017, 01:30 PM
Didn't they raise the # to 885 or so for this year?

Twinjetav8r
09-10-2017, 05:24 PM
A new class starts Tuesday the 12th. And then another Tuesday the 19th. Come on seniority!


Sent from my iPad using Tapatalk

at6d
09-10-2017, 05:30 PM
Didn't they raise the # to 885 or so for this year?

I heard that too. Also 900-1000 next year. Who knows.

Sqwk7700
09-12-2017, 07:59 AM
after... the rest of the year

One class started today, I think another starts 9/19. Just heard Oct 3, 10, 17, and 24 as well.

ANGFlight81
09-13-2017, 10:24 AM
Any good rumors as to why all the hiring? I'm not complaining but our fleet projections aren't showing the need...

Peacock
09-13-2017, 02:39 PM
Any good rumors as to why all the hiring? I'm not complaining but our fleet projections aren't showing the need...
More international, more red eyes, better reliability and utilization for the MAX than 300's, less premium pay?

I've heard all of those but I don't think anyone here knows.

cheech
09-13-2017, 06:14 PM
Latest word is one more class in Sep (19th), 4 classes in Oct, 3 in Nov, and 2 in Dec. Around 915 hires this year. Prob about the same next year.

WHACKMASTER
09-14-2017, 09:49 AM
Any good rumors as to why all the hiring? I'm not complaining but our fleet projections aren't showing the need...

Delta is buying SWA and we'll be under DLA's staffing formula which is much more inefficient thus the need for all the hiring.

flyguy81
09-14-2017, 11:28 AM
Delta is buying SWA and we'll be under DLA's staffing formula which is much more inefficient thus the need for all the hiring.

Ewwwwwwwww. Gross 😂

SkyNation
09-14-2017, 02:47 PM
1300+ in 2018 I just heard from a friend in newhire

ANGFlight81
09-14-2017, 04:31 PM
1300+ in 2018 I just heard from a friend in newhire

Holy Sh*t

Are we getting 787's too?

FlyingPirate
09-14-2017, 08:20 PM
1300+ in 2018 I just heard from a friend in newhire

:eek: yeah right..

WHACKMASTER
09-14-2017, 09:14 PM
1300+ in 2018 I just heard from a friend in newhire

Um, yeah.....okay. Now that I don't believe. First of all WHY? Second of all HOW?

Why in the world would we need that many pilots given our orders (even with a lot of red-eyes getting added (?).

How could they possibly train that many?!

Woodbourne23
09-14-2017, 09:31 PM
More international, more red eyes, better reliability and utilization for the MAX than 300's, less premium pay?

I've heard all of those but I don't think anyone here knows.

All those reasons are correct (except red eyes). Flight ops chases metrics and has for decades. In the more premium vs more hiring seesaw, more hiring is currently the manning favorite. On the bright side, maybe someone will actually pick up my giveaway

SWAPA says lines for October are projected to contain a ton of reserve trips and summer staffing for 2018 should be in positive territory. 4500 flights per day

ZapBrannigan
09-15-2017, 02:20 AM
My problem with that is that if their goal is less JA, then it doesn't matter how many pilots they have if they don't change their utilization of reserves.

Right now they will utilize a reserve to cover open time for tomorrow rather than awarding it as premium. But then when someone calls in sick tomorrow, they're up a creek. They split to cover and end up with a junk trip that nobody will pick up even at premium because it doesn't pay anything. So they JA.

Until they decide to hang on to a few reserves and accept that some days those reserves may not fly - that they will act as an insurance policy in the event of sick calls or irregular ops - then it doesn't matter how many pilots they hire. Their behavior will still result in JAs.


Sent from my iPhone using Tapatalk

ground stop
09-15-2017, 08:12 AM
1300+ for 2018 is vastly different from what the union put out in the monthly update email at the beginning of this month.

Update on 2017 & 2018 Pilot hiring numbers
Last count for 2017 - 786
2017 - Expecting 884 total
2018 - Estimating slightly below 700

Although I flew with a guy who told me new hires were being told they should upgrade in about 7 yrs.

ANGFlight81
09-15-2017, 09:26 AM
1300+ for 2018 is vastly different from what the union put out in the monthly update email at the beginning of this month.

Update on 2017 & 2018 Pilot hiring numbers
Last count for 2017 - 786
2017 - Expecting 884 total
2018 - Estimating slightly below 700

Although I flew with a guy who told me new hires were being told they should upgrade in about 7 yrs.

Just went to training. Was told number had changed to roughly 1000 in 2018

ground stop
09-15-2017, 09:43 AM
Bring 'em on! Maybe the hiring next yr will be for growing Phx!

flyguy81
09-15-2017, 10:49 AM
I can see upgrade eventually getting to the 7-8 yr range once you get through the backlog of people hired 2007-8 range. After that we only hired roughly 1500 in the next 7-8 years. So it'll drop assuming growth and hiring stays the same. Another recession and "poof"....

ZapBrannigan
09-15-2017, 11:19 AM
Eh. I don't put much stock in upgrade forecasts even during significant hiring. In 1999 and 2000 the legacies all hired 100 pilots per month right up until 9/11. Then they furloughed all of those pilots and then some. There are pilots getting hired at SWA today who worked for those legacies pre 9/11... and there are pilots getting hired at SWA today who hadn't even taken their first flying lesson by 9/11. We all view this profession through the lens of our personal and professional experience.

As a 9/11 furloughee I can tell you a decade long upgrade seems pretty quick to me. But then again I've spent the lions share of the last twenty two years as a first officer at a variety of operators. So what's another decade between friends? [emoji6]


Sent from my iPad using Tapatalk

ANGFlight81
09-15-2017, 11:26 AM
Eh. I don't put much stock in upgrade forecasts even during significant hiring. In 1999 and 2000 the legacies all hired 100 pilots per month right up until 9/11. Then they furloughed all of those pilots and then some. There are pilots getting hired at SWA today who worked for those legacies pre 9/11... and there are pilots getting hired at SWA today who hadn't even taken their first flying lesson by 9/11. We all view this profession through the lens of our personal and professional experience.

As a 9/11 furloughee I can tell you a decade long upgrade seems pretty quick to me. But then again I've spent the lions share of the last twenty two years as a first officer at a variety of operators. So what's another decade between friends? [emoji6]


Sent from my iPad using Tapatalk


Agree Zap. Though for people hired today I don't believe the upgrade will be 10+ years but anything is possible.

Additionally, even if the upgrade was 10 years; since when did that become a LONG time to upgrade?!?!

ZapBrannigan
09-15-2017, 11:30 AM
Additionally, even if the upgrade was 10 years; since when did that become a LONG time to upgrade?!?!


That's my point. Legacy upgrade times have traditionally been lengthy. There will always be the lucky few who caught it at the right time and managed a 5 year upgrade. They're few and far between.

If we are looking at the quick upgrades at Delta, I guess you have to ask yourself this... if there is an upgrade that 6000 first officers choose to bypass - is it really an upgrade you want?


Sent from my iPad using Tapatalk

SINCE
09-15-2017, 12:02 PM
If you live in domicile, the chance to pull down 250 large and put up with a few shenanigans on reserve ain't so bad. After you've had it and paid off all your debt and burned the mortgage choose a nice seat as an FO.

Proximity
09-15-2017, 12:08 PM
I would expect upgrade times to maybe slightly increase, then drop. If you look at the seniority list, after the AT purchase but before 2015 there was very little hiring. Also, senior FOs make great money and have great schedules, and reserve is still pretty brutal, so I'd expect more FOs to bypass. For those hired 2015 and later, 7 year upgrade could be realistic. SWA does actually have retirements that start to increase around 2023 onwards, or 5-7 years from someone hired today.

PowerShift
09-16-2017, 07:52 AM
My guess is all the hiring is for better manning and increased growth.
It's cheaper to pay Premium pay to an existing employee then to hire another to pay both straight time. I get the feeling SW is gearing up for a major expansion.

ANGFlight81
09-16-2017, 08:57 AM
My guess is all the hiring is for better manning and increased growth.
It's cheaper to pay Premium pay to an existing employee then to hire another to pay both straight time. I get the feeling SW is gearing up for a major expansion.

Agreed. Wonder if a new type is coming?

RJSAviator76
09-18-2017, 05:22 AM
My guess is all the hiring is for better manning and increased growth.
It's cheaper to pay Premium pay to an existing employee then to hire another to pay both straight time. I get the feeling SW is gearing up for a major expansion.


I keep hearing from multiple sources that the goal is 12,000 pilots by 2022. So I went to myseniority.com to see the seniority list growth rate graph. That's roughly 7% seniority list growth rate by 2022. Please don't pay attention to numbers beyond 2022 as data becomes gibberish, as in no we most likely won't have 45000 pilots on the property by your retirement date. :)

We currently have right around 9,000 pilots on the property. Within that same time frame, we will be retiring around 600 pilots according to SWAPA retirement schedule. That means that in order to achieve the 12,000 mark, we'll need to hire 3,600 pilots over the next 5 years, or 720 per year.

Bear in mind, this is also assuming 0 early-outs, nor does it include any other factors such as people reaching the 18 year mark and having 5 weeks of vacation as opposed to 4.

This brings me to our upgrade times. Current junior captains are right around 60-61% on the master seniority list. Using that same seniority percentage, depending on when one was hired, the data seems to support a 5-7 year upgrade for those hired during this wave of hiring. For me personally, it falls just shy of 6 years on the property.

Now... this is all assuming organic growth, i.e. no mergers.

If we were to merge with someone, keep their pilots and dump their aircraft a'la AirTran, forget these numbers...

If we were to introduce a new aircraft type and keeping it organic, these numbers will likely get even better as it would require more hiring which would mean even quicker upgrade.

Who knows what will happen... but I do believe something is up as I know Southwest doesn't blow 9 figures on building facilities they don't fully intend to use to their max potential.

Salukidawg
09-18-2017, 06:50 AM
I keep hearing from multiple sources that the goal is 12,000 pilots by 2022. So I went to myseniority.com to see the seniority list growth rate graph. That's roughly 7% seniority list growth rate by 2022. Please don't pay attention to numbers beyond 2022 as data becomes gibberish, as in no we most likely won't have 45000 pilots on the property by your retirement date. :)

We currently have right around 9,000 pilots on the property. Within that same time frame, we will be retiring around 600 pilots according to SWAPA retirement schedule. That means that in order to achieve the 12,000 mark, we'll need to hire 3,600 pilots over the next 5 years, or 720 per year.

Bear in mind, this is also assuming 0 early-outs, nor does it include any other factors such as people reaching the 18 year mark and having 5 weeks of vacation as opposed to 4.

This brings me to our upgrade times. Current junior captains are right around 60-61% on the master seniority list. Using that same seniority percentage, depending on when one was hired, the data seems to support a 5-7 year upgrade for those hired during this wave of hiring. For me personally, it falls just shy of 6 years on the property.

Now... this is all assuming organic growth, i.e. no mergers.

If we were to merge with someone, keep their pilots and dump their aircraft a'la AirTran, forget these numbers...

If we were to introduce a new aircraft type and keeping it organic, these numbers will likely get even better as it would require more hiring which would mean even quicker upgrade.

Who knows what will happen... but I do believe something is up as I know Southwest doesn't blow 9 figures on building facilities they don't fully intend to use to their max potential.
Bank on another M&A event in the next 12-24 months, so you can pretty much throw out any upgrade projections unless you are due to upgrade within that timeframe. I'd love to believe that the new sim building is for organic growth, but I've been here long enough to know better unfortunately and I've seen this before the AirTran acquisition and all signs point to another "merger". Even money on a JetBlue, Alaska, or Hawaiian merger in the not too distant future.

ANGFlight81
09-18-2017, 07:19 AM
Bank on another M&A event in the next 12-24 months, so you can pretty much throw out any upgrade projections unless you are due to upgrade within that timeframe. I'd love to believe that the new sim building is for organic growth, but I've been here long enough to know better unfortunately and I've seen this before the AirTran acquisition and all signs point to another "merger". Even money on a JetBlue, Alaska, or Hawaiian merger in the not too distant future.

So based on this post is it safe to say we can throw out the projections on myseniority.com, or is this a one sided thesis?

Salukidawg
09-18-2017, 09:14 AM
So based on this post is it safe to say we can throw out the projections on myseniority.com, or is this a one sided thesis?

My seniority.com is a tool and a snapshot in time. As of today, those projections if nothing changes are probably pretty close. As we all know, nothing in this industry stays the same. Change is constant, so I'm just adding my take to temper any expectations that what my seniority.com says today may not reflect what happens 1,5, even 10 years down the road, that's all.

Proximity
09-18-2017, 10:43 AM
Bank on another M&A event in the next 12-24 months, so you can pretty much throw out any upgrade projections unless you are due to upgrade within that timeframe.

Southwest paid 1.4B for AirTran.

Alaska - 9.3B
JetBlue - 7.38B
Hawaiian - 2.26B
Spirit - 2.71B

None of these airlines compete as directly with SWA as AirTran did, and other than Alaska, none have an orderbook full of 737s.

Alaska and JetBlue are really expensive.

Hawaiian and Spirit are expensive for what you get.

I just don't see it. AirTran merger proved that an acquisition isn't a shortcut to growth.

The seniority integration won't be as easy compared to how it went during the AT merger. Many lessons have been learned since then, and I'm sure the company knows this.

e6bpilot
09-18-2017, 11:26 AM
I don't see it happening either. AirTran was bought on the cheap. They were losing money and fuel was through the roof. Look at airline stock performance and price today vs then. The only thing I could see would be a fringe player like Sun Country or a minority stake in a foreign carrier.
When you think about an acquisition, think about it in the lens of an accountant, not a pilot. What do you get for the $$$?
We got a lot from AirTran and knocked out a direct competitor for cheap.

ANGFlight81
09-18-2017, 11:34 AM
I don't see it happening either. AirTran was bought on the cheap. They were losing money and fuel was through the roof. Look at airline stock performance and price today vs then. The only thing I could see would be a fringe player like Sun Country or a minority stake in a foreign carrier.
When you think about an acquisition, think about it in the lens of an accountant, not a pilot. What do you get for the $$$?
We got a lot from AirTran and knocked out a direct competitor for cheap.

This exactly. Too many pilots think the airline thinks about them and makes decisions based on them. Think about the future of an airline as if you were a fly on the wall in a board meeting. Sorry to sound grim, but we don't matter...

RJSAviator76
09-18-2017, 02:13 PM
Bank on another M&A event in the next 12-24 months, so you can pretty much throw out any upgrade projections unless you are due to upgrade within that timeframe. I'd love to believe that the new sim building is for organic growth, but I've been here long enough to know better unfortunately and I've seen this before the AirTran acquisition and all signs point to another "merger". Even money on a JetBlue, Alaska, or Hawaiian merger in the not too distant future.

Since we're spiff balling here, Alaska is WAY too expensive and probably wouldn't pass the DOJ smell test. Think about the PR nightmare of killing the Alaska brand...

I don't see Hawaiian either as we have absolutely ZERO commonality with them. Also, the State of Hawaii would also pitch a major fit over the loss of their "home" airline as they depend on reliable interisland air transportation that's already gotten battered with the loss of Aloha. No way they'd want or allow a mainland airline to control that. The whole thing would be a PR nightmare for Southwest.

I don't see JetBlue either... too expensive and incompatible with us.

I could see Frontier (not sure it'd pass the DOJ smell test) maybe and possibly Spirit, though again doubtful.

I don't see Sun Country - too small and barely even registering. Maybe for their aircraft?

Who knows....

SimMonkey
09-18-2017, 02:35 PM
I would be hoarding cash for the downturn in the economy. That is when a sale would make sense. Bargain hunting 101.

hoover
09-18-2017, 07:16 PM
I'll put two beers that it will be Copa and 777 announced in the next 5 yrs

PowerShift
09-18-2017, 10:48 PM
I don't see the big 4 getting into price wars with each other, but I do see them reclaiming lost markets.

The airlines are making money hand over fist right now. In business terms, that means a war chest. The time to kill the startups will be during the next economical down turn. You hedge your loss. Buy them, or price war them into bankruptcy. The later being the more economical option if the targeted company has low cash assets, and no callateral equity.

Who is that? Sun Country is not cash ripe, and they lease everything.
Frontier I believe is owned by a holdings company (think shell game to strip the cash). Spirit? Not sure about their structure.

So, as a bean counter what do you want? You want their market share. You don't want their debt or leased planes. You "drive them out". I think Allegiant, Frontier, Spirit, etc won't be bought, they will be the next targets of the big 4. Of the 4 who has the war chest? SWA and DAL.

Just one guy's take :)

Salukidawg
09-19-2017, 05:37 AM
I don't see the big 4 getting into price wars with each other, but I do see them reclaiming lost markets.

The airlines are making money hand over fist right now. In business terms, that means a war chest. The time to kill the startups will be during the next economical down turn. You hedge your loss. Buy them, or price war them into bankruptcy. The later being the more economical option if the targeted company has low cash assets, and no callateral equity.

Who is that? Sun Country is not cash ripe, and they lease everything.
Frontier I believe is owned by a holdings company (think shell game to strip the cash). Spirit? Not sure about their structure.

So, as a bean counter what do you want? You want their market share. You don't want their debt or leased planes. You "drive them out". I think Allegiant, Frontier, Spirit, etc won't be bought, they will be the next targets of the big 4. Of the 4 who has the war chest? SWA and DAL.

Just one guy's take :)

So it's s settled, SWA/DAL merger. You heard it here first.

deltajuliet
09-19-2017, 07:38 AM
For those with class dates and applying, the new-hires hitting the line and done with IOE went to BWI, MDW, OAK, MCO and it still looks like one should be able to hold anything within 2-3 months from hitting the line with the exception of ATL.

Informative post, thank you. One other question - could anyone say how many pilots are based in MDW? Thanks!

at6d
09-19-2017, 07:55 AM
600 captains
588 FOs

deltajuliet
09-19-2017, 08:01 AM
Thank you!

PowerShift
09-19-2017, 01:40 PM
Bulk of new hires are going to BWI, MDW and OAK. DEN and PHX look like about 5-6 mo on property to hold.

Proximity
09-19-2017, 08:25 PM
Bulk of new hires are going to BWI, MDW and OAK. DEN and PHX look like about 5-6 mo on property to hold.

The very bottom vaires month to month. PHX was junior last year, now it's one of the more senior. MCO had new hires for a few months, then went senior. Last bid had HOU getting new hires for the first time in awhile. Basically, you really can't count on anything other then you'll get what you want in a reasonable amount of time, other than ATL.

Skyward
09-27-2017, 06:27 PM
About how long for a new hire to hold LAS?

NorskAir
09-28-2017, 01:05 PM
About how long for a new hire to hold LAS?

Early August hires just got LAS on the November vacancy released today. It ebbs and flows, but as a new hire you can hold any base except ATL within 4 months of hire.

Woodbourne23
09-29-2017, 06:58 AM
4 in October. 3 in November and 2 in December. All 26 for a total of 883 in 2017.

2018 is currently approved for 600 but that number will rise. Manning just submitted a request for more; waiting for the bean counters to approve.

100 more upgrades through the end of 2017. Hawaii to be announced soon no red eyes or codeshare yet. No real "growth" either. Back to 2015 fleet levels end of 18, just with newer and more reliable planes that fly longer per day and break less



Search Engine Optimization by vBSEO 3.6.1