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View Full Version : ALGT below $120???


tyler durden
08-17-2017, 03:10 PM
ALGT is hovering around half of the $234 it hit 2 years ago. Thoughts?


rickair7777
08-17-2017, 03:17 PM
Don't invest in the company or industry you work in...especially airlines, the industry is fragile and the potential downside is varied and vast.

Ok to exercise options if you have them, but don't hold it longer than you have to.

Whiskey4
08-17-2017, 03:33 PM
Don't invest in the company or industry you work in...especially airlines, the industry is fragile and the potential downside is varied and vast.

Ok to exercise options if you have them, but don't hold it longer than you have to.

What about the employees who held SWA options from day zero? That worked out rather well. Depends on the company. How much do you believe the model will inspire Wall Street analysts going forward? Granted, the "pay shortage" going on at the airlines probably won't inspire much confidence in the bottom lines over the next decade. The pilotless plane investment would be the bandwagon to jump on if it ever looks like a reality. Wall Street loves employees losing jobs to automation.


rickair7777
08-17-2017, 03:49 PM
What about the employees who held SWA options from day zero?

A lot more UAL employees lost their butts on ESOP...

If you want to get in on the ground floor of a unicorn, go to silicon value...the odds are terrible there, but still far better than the airlines as far as that goes.

Flyby1206
08-17-2017, 04:53 PM
There is a lot of doubt lately among analysts whether the ULCC model is sustainable. Check Spirit (SAVE) performance, and Frontier postponed their IPO. The Big 3 are getting aggressive and competing with ULCCs by offering bare bones fares in some parts of coach class. I'm not sure if ALGT is in the same business model as Spirit, so maybe this shouldn't be dragging the stock down.

Trowserchilli
08-17-2017, 05:07 PM
There is a lot of doubt lately among analysts whether the ULCC model is sustainable. Check Spirit (SAVE) performance, and Frontier postponed their IPO. The Big 3 are getting aggressive and competing with ULCCs by offering bare bones fares in some parts of coach class. I'm not sure if ALGT is in the same business model as Spirit, so maybe this shouldn't be dragging the stock down.

Nothing new, been going on for decades. Devaluing their product has never worked.
Kirby went after Spirit at DFW. When they raised their prices again it just caused Spirits stock to rally.

The legacies repeat the same process over and over. I'll never understand it. They get wrapped around the axle and slash their own fares over a very small segment of passenger traffic. My opinion, I think they should continue to charge a premium and focus on providing a superior product.
The ULCC model is here to stay, it's almost entirely focused on leisure travel. ULCC's don't bat an eye about the legacies. Their competition is Greyhound, Amtrak and the automobile.

JustWatching
08-17-2017, 05:41 PM
It's amazing how the stock always drops when the company authorizes a buy back.

mainlineAF
08-17-2017, 05:47 PM
Nothing new, been going on for decades. Devaluing their product has never worked.

Kirby went after Spirit at DFW. When they raised their prices again it just caused Spirits stock to rally.



The legacies repeat the same process over and over. I'll never understand it. They get wrapped around the axle and slash their own fares over a very small segment of passenger traffic. My opinion, I think they should continue to charge a premium and focus on providing a superior product.

The ULCC model is here to stay, it's almost entirely focused on leisure travel. ULCC's don't bat an eye about the legacies. Their competition is Greyhound, Amtrak and the automobile.



When the legacies match fares it's only for a certain number of tickets and for flights around the same time as the ULCC competition. If AA matches a spirit DFW-wherever flight it's not like they're doing it on all the tickets for all the flights that day.

Beretta01
08-17-2017, 05:48 PM
....[filler]

sqwkvfr
08-17-2017, 06:58 PM
It's amazing how the stock always drops when the company authorizes a buy back.

It's more the other way around. Management has had continuous authorization repurchase stock for the last few years; when the price dips, they buy like crazy in order to maximize EPS as cheaply as possible.

Speaking of that, since the YOY numbers have taken a hit the last few quarters, even modest numbers starting 3Q17 are going to look like a reasonable improvement. That should help the price tick up, provided the overall market isn't pulling everything downward.

I'm waiting to see what happens politically over the next few months, but barring any unforeseen events, ALGT could very well end up being a risk worth taking .

Whiskey4
08-17-2017, 08:50 PM
....[filler]

Buy the dip!!! ;D

ecam
08-18-2017, 06:35 AM
It was clearly stated in the Spring 17 investor conference call that the stock price was greatly overvalued. Allegiant Travel Company spokespeople said they understood that, and expected to see losses with the fleet transition and "other factors" taking place during fiscal 2017 which would reduce profitability. And that's exactly what happened. Move along, nothing to see here.

Now if we want to get into conspiracy theories, it's been rumored for quite some time now that Allegiant Travel Co. wants to spin Allegiant Air off or sell it outright, but the capital value of the company was too high and was a huge barrier. So it would have made sense to make negative forward looking statements and get that price down if they want to get something together. Seems it's back in reasonable buyout territory already.

As for the usual subjects making noise about the legacy carriers killing the ULCCs, keep making me laugh. Spirit and Frontier are down because they have major labor problems right now, particularly Spirit. And those two are probably most likely to merge. Allegiant really doesn't compete with the legacy airlines or even the other ULCCs except maybe a handful of routes. The legacy carriers can cut service and fares all they want to, but until they start offering direct service from podunk to podunk and filling planes with 187 people, Allegiant has nothing to worry about. I certainly don't see that happening any time soon.

iahflyr
08-18-2017, 11:49 AM
Most airlines are back into the razor thin single digit profit margins. Fuel prices are up (oil is not at $26/barrel anymore, its double that), and labor costs are up. Plus airlines have been spending a ton of money on capital (new airplanes, upgraded interiors, lounges, you name it). It's no surprise to me at all

e6bpilot
08-18-2017, 12:03 PM
Most airlines are back into the razor thin single digit profit margins. Fuel prices are up (oil is not at $26/barrel anymore, its double that), and labor costs are up. Plus airlines have been spending a ton of money on capital (new airplanes, upgraded interiors, lounges, you name it). It's no surprise to me at all



You sure about that?
2Q2017 margin
AA 11.7
UA 12.6
DL 18.4
WN 21.8

sqwkvfr
08-19-2017, 06:36 AM
Most airlines are back into the razor thin single digit profit margins. Fuel prices are up (oil is not at $26/barrel anymore, its double that), and labor costs are up. Plus airlines have been spending a ton of money on capital (new airplanes, upgraded interiors, lounges, you name it). It's no surprise to me at all

You really need to check your facts.

tyler durden
08-24-2017, 09:22 AM
Buy the dip!!! ;D

Allegiant Travel (ALGT) Slips to 52-Week Low: Here's Why
https://finance.yahoo.com/news/allegiant-travel-algt-slips-52-105810222.html

Trying to find the bottom! LOL.

At $114 and falling, I don't want to catch the falling knife.

Beretta01
08-24-2017, 09:28 AM
Allegiant Travel (ALGT) Slips to 52-Week Low: Here's Why
https://finance.yahoo.com/news/allegiant-travel-algt-slips-52-105810222.html

Trying to find the bottom! LOL.

At $114 and falling, I don't want to catch the falling knife.

It's all relative.....

tyler durden
08-24-2017, 10:36 AM
It's all relative.....

Granted, the Transports Sector is down somewhat, but with the exception of ULCCs like Spirit and ALGT, airlines aren't trading at their 52-week lows. As opposed to losing over half their market cap over the last 2 years, AAL, UAL, DAL, and LUV are actually trading higher.

Just looking for sound investment advice and I'm told pilots are a great resource (sarcasm). Jim Cramer claims airline stocks are oversold, might be a good time to buy.

crxpilot
08-24-2017, 04:42 PM
Granted, the Transports Sector is down somewhat, but with the exception of ULCCs like Spirit and ALGT, airlines aren't trading at their 52-week lows. As opposed to losing over half their market cap over the last 2 years, AAL, UAL, DAL, and LUV are actually trading higher.

Just looking for sound investment advice and I'm told pilots are a great resource (sarcasm). Jim Cramer claims airline stocks are oversold, might be a good time to buy.

If you read the investor reports and listen to the conference calls they put out, they fully acknowledge that the "transition" is/will wear down the stock price. Dont ya know its gonna pop up though come 2019.

Chimpy
08-24-2017, 05:35 PM
There is a lot of doubt lately among analysts whether the ULCC model is sustainable. Check Spirit (SAVE) performance, and Frontier postponed their IPO. The Big 3 are getting aggressive and competing with ULCCs by offering bare bones fares in some parts of coach class. I'm not sure if ALGT is in the same business model as Spirit, so maybe this shouldn't be dragging the stock down.

The legacy "basic fares" are not what's causing SAVES crappy performance, besides, margins are stilll higher than legacies even with aggressive pricing

KC135
08-24-2017, 08:38 PM
Granted, the Transports Sector is down somewhat, but with the exception of ULCCs like Spirit and ALGT, airlines aren't trading at their 52-week lows. As opposed to losing over half their market cap over the last 2 years, AAL, UAL, DAL, and LUV are actually trading higher.

To be fair, none of those other airline stocks you mentioned popped 250% in 1.5 years. Early 2014 ALGT was $91/share and $232 by Fall of 2015. I'm not surprised at all by the pull back, almost typical with any small cap runner.

ecam
08-25-2017, 06:17 AM
The sky is falling!

Unless you're an investor (and I HOPE you aren't buying stock in your own airline), it doesn't matter what the stock price is. This company is absolutely not going bankrupt, and as long as my pay check clears, I'm good. So the investors are overreacting. Big deal. Wall Street is nothing but a big casino anyhow. It's actually better for the stock to be realistically priced than massively overvalued like it was until recently. but some people just need to spread doom and gloom all the time.

tyler durden
08-25-2017, 07:40 AM
The sky is falling!

Unless you're an investor (and I HOPE you aren't buying stock in your own airline), it doesn't matter what the stock price is. This company is absolutely not going bankrupt, and as long as my pay check clears, I'm good. So the investors are overreacting. Big deal. Wall Street is nothing but a big casino anyhow. It's actually better for the stock to be realistically priced than massively overvalued like it was until recently. but some people just need to spread doom and gloom all the time.

Sky is Falling? Who said anything about Bankruptcy??Talk about spreading doom and gloom and overreacting. Take your meds and step away from the key board.

Yes, I am an investor, and like many, I've owned stock here since it was issued. Looking for insights, not drama.

tyler durden
08-25-2017, 07:41 AM
To be fair, none of those other airline stocks you mentioned popped 250% in 1.5 years. Early 2014 ALGT was $91/share and $232 by Fall of 2015. I'm not surprised at all by the pull back, almost typical with any small cap runner.

Good point.

tyler durden
08-25-2017, 10:31 AM
ALGT up 4%. Jim Cramer might be on to something.



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