Airline Pilot Forums

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100LL
01-09-2018, 12:57 PM
Ok so it's clear there's lots of movement within the airlines, as major pilots are retiring and allowing regional guys to move on and what not. But what happens when those large number of retiring pilots slows way down as the majors will then be occupied largely by slightly "younger guys" in their 40's and 50's? Will movement and hiring slow way down and get more competitive to get into the big 3? Then once on board if one is lucky how long could it take to upgrade to captain?


Alexander12
01-09-2018, 01:17 PM
Ok so it's clear there's lots of movement within the airlines, as major pilots are retiring and allowing regional guys to move on and what not. But what happens when those large number of retiring pilots slows way down as the majors will then be occupied largely by slightly "younger guys" in their 40's and 50's? Will movement and hiring slow way down and get more competitive to get into the big 3? Then once on board if one is lucky how long could it take to upgrade to captain?

That my friend is the million dollar question. Airline hiring and staffing is as fickle as the wind. Not a definite answer for you and Iím sorry but if you make it to the big three I donít see why you couldnít upgrade in a reasonable amount of time. Best of luck

Otterbox
01-09-2018, 01:53 PM
Ok so it's clear there's lots of movement within the airlines, as major pilots are retiring and allowing regional guys to move on and what not. But what happens when those large number of retiring pilots slows way down as the majors will then be occupied largely by slightly "younger guys" in their 40's and 50's? Will movement and hiring slow way down and get more competitive to get into the big 3? Then once on board if one is lucky how long could it take to upgrade to captain?

The big 3 and FedEx/UPS will always be the toughest to get on with.

This wave of large scale retirements will last approximately 10 more years before it (and thus hiring) slows down.


galaxy flyer
01-09-2018, 02:37 PM
Every boom is the next decade’s stagnation. It’s the nature of a seniority based system. With the new hire age range not as compressed as in prior booms, it may be lessened. Delta has hired over 3,500 pilots that’s most of their top paying captains for the next 10-20 years.

GF

Sliceback
01-09-2018, 03:16 PM
17 yrs before AAís future retirements drops to how many retired last year.

The retirement bubble is big.

ShyGuy
01-09-2018, 06:18 PM
The industry is and has always been cyclical. Enjoy it while the good lasts, the next downturn is coming as it always does. This time though the retirement numbers are astoundingly high and hopefully mitigates any chance of furloughs.

Aero1900
01-09-2018, 09:20 PM
This will probably be the biggest and longest lasting hiring period. The number old guys going bye bye is huge. No need to worry for at least 10 years.

putzin
01-10-2018, 06:32 AM
This will probably be the biggest and longest lasting hiring period. The number old guys going bye bye is huge. No need to worry for at least 10 years.


Which is why the retirement age should be raised to 70.

MudhammedCJ
01-10-2018, 06:55 AM
Sure. In 18 more years, feel free.

Speedbird2263
01-10-2018, 07:14 AM
Sure. In 18 more years, feel free.

Move that motion to 2052 and Iím onboard.

WHACKMASTER
01-10-2018, 08:24 AM
Which is why the retirement age should be raised to 70.

Bahahaha!!! Can we start a ďMost outlandish statement of the dayĒ thread?

Tell ya what....if we can do annual cognitive testing past age 65 then Iím on board. Oh wait.....even then Iím not.

GMAFB

Milksheikh
01-10-2018, 09:15 AM
Every boom is the next decadeís stagnation. Itís the nature of a seniority based system. With the new hire age range not as compressed as in prior booms, it may be lessened. Delta has hired over 3,500 pilots thatís most of their top paying captains for the next 10-20 years.
GF

That's a good point and something to consider for all with the goal of wanting to become widebody capts. With delta having the least amount of widebody aircrafts of the majors (total numbers, not sure percentage wise) and considering how many have already been hired, I wonder what that magical age to get hired at is if you want to be widebody capt for the last 10-15 years of your career. Certainly much younger than united or american. With AA having the most retirements and assuming a much older newhire age due to flow throughs the opportunity for advancement looks a lot better there. All this being said, still go to the first one to call.

Hossharris
01-10-2018, 09:46 AM
Which is why the retirement age should be raised to 70.

Who the hell wants to work until theyíre 70??!!!

I donít want to work to 65...

Qotsaautopilot
01-10-2018, 10:38 AM
Who the hell wants to work until theyíre 70??!!!

I donít want to work to 65...

Answer: all the 64year old pilots at your airline

Otterbox
01-10-2018, 10:43 AM
Which is why the retirement age should be raised to 70.

The age 60 to age 65 shift brought the US in line with ICAO standards... we should not have an age shift to take us beyond that in 121.

Want to work till age 70... go corporate.

rickair7777
01-10-2018, 12:21 PM
The age 60 to age 65 shift brought the US in line with ICAO standards... we should not have an age shift to take us beyond that in 121.

Want to work till age 70... go corporate.

The Japanese are already at 67. I expect we'll see that eventually at the rate things are trending. I think beyond that you'll really start pushing biology, and would need cog testing for sure.

But careful what you wish for... if implemented, cog testing might be applied to 50 year olds as well as 65 year olds. Or even all 121 pilots. Cog testing may be like ishihara tests... somebody who flies just fine may not be able to pass test.

rightside02
01-10-2018, 01:17 PM
The Japanese are already at 67. I expect we'll see that eventually at the rate things are trending. I think beyond that you'll really start pushing biology, and would need cog testing for sure.

But careful what you wish for... if implemented, cog testing might be applied to 50 year olds as well as 65 year olds. Or even all 121 pilots. Cog testing may be like ishihara tests... somebody who flies just fine may not be able to pass test.

I agree many test out there wouldn't be passed by common folk. Like the Ishihara color vision test , most commonly failed test , 1in 4 males have a color deficiency in green. Notcolor blind but a deficiency. Meanwhile plenty of other navy approved test are passed all day. I agree careful what we wish for . And don't even bring BMI into the U.S. Half the airlines would shut down tomorrow. Very large overweight group sadly .

ShyGuy
01-10-2018, 01:56 PM
The Japanese are already at 67. I expect we'll see that eventually at the rate things are trending. I think beyond that you'll really start pushing biology, and would need cog testing for sure.

But careful what you wish for... if implemented, cog testing might be applied to 50 year olds as well as 65 year olds. Or even all 121 pilots. Cog testing may be like ishihara tests... somebody who flies just fine may not be able to pass test.

The average Japanese is healthy and fit with a good diet. The average American today is obese (not even overweight, obese) with bad eating habits and lack of exercise. The Japanese also have a higher life expectancy than the average American. Thereís no comparison.

BobZ
01-10-2018, 02:33 PM
The average Japanese is healthy and fit with a good diet. The average American today is obese (not even overweight, obese) with bad eating habits and lack of exercise. The Japanese also have a higher life expectancy than the average American. Thereís no comparison.

good thing they also have nearly 2x the US incidence of smoking and drinking otherwise we would really suck,

they also have a genetically homogeneous population demographic.

which makes general life expectancy comparisons overly simplistic.

Al Czervik
01-10-2018, 03:55 PM
I agree many test out there wouldn't be passed by common folk. Like the Ishihara color vision test , most commonly failed test , 1in 4 males have a color deficiency in green. Notcolor blind but a deficiency. Meanwhile plenty of other navy approved test are passed all day. I agree careful what we wish for . And don't even bring BMI into the U.S. Half the airlines would shut down tomorrow. Very large overweight group sadly .

Do they have to do the kobayashi maru?

qball
01-10-2018, 05:55 PM
Do they have to do the kobayashi maru?

Only one man can pass that test.

Sliceback
01-10-2018, 06:26 PM
Japanese male life expectancy is 80.

U.S. college educated white male is ... 80.

I wouldn't sweat the details.

Speedbird2263
01-10-2018, 09:13 PM
Japanese male life expectancy is 80.

U.S. college educated white male is ... 80.

I wouldn't sweat the details.

What about the college educated white Japanese? :eek:

rightside02
01-11-2018, 03:11 AM
No clue what that test is ...

TransWorld
01-11-2018, 04:28 AM
Japanese male life expectancy is 80.

U.S. college educated white male is ... 80.

I wouldn't sweat the details.

So if I self identify as a Japanese male, I should be able to be hired by the majors without a college education? Makes sense to me. Rotfl

detpilot
01-11-2018, 04:51 AM
What about the college educated white Japanese? :eek:Black Japanese living in America with a Japanese associates degree... Go! I'm guessing 73 years!

Sent from my SAMSUNG-SM-G891A using Tapatalk

BobZ
01-11-2018, 08:54 AM
Only one man can pass that test.

And he had to cheat to do it! Lol!

Sliceback
01-11-2018, 09:16 AM
What about the college educated white Japanese? :eek:

Can they check the Ďwhiteí box?

1999 article said no age longevity difference between Japanese doctors and the general population.

Qotsaautopilot
01-11-2018, 09:41 AM
As long as our government requires me to retire prior to my SS age, I'll advocate working to or at least past that age as it has a tendency to shift.

My retirement planning is fine, but many others were affected by the last decade. So, I have no problem raising the age, nor testing past a certain age. 50 sound good to you?

Just because the age will be raised to 67 doesn't mean you have to work until that age, nor does it mean if you work to that age you have to fly 90 hours a month like at SWA.

Personally, given how much you whine, I doubt you'll make it to 60, [EDITED FOR TOS] ��

We don’t have to work to retirement age but the age change certainly affects the buying power of our relative seniority. All those that rose to the top when it was 60 got 5 free years of seniority stolen from those behind them. Now you advocate that the rest of us gladly hand over more of our own relative seniority growth again?

putzin
01-11-2018, 10:13 AM
We donít have to work to retirement age but the age change certainly affects the buying power of our relative seniority. All those that rose to the top when it was 60 got 5 free years of seniority stolen from those behind them. Now you advocate that the rest of us gladly hand over more of our own relative seniority growth again?

I walked a mile in those shoes with you, I just don't believe it's always about "ME".

Sorry

Qotsaautopilot
01-11-2018, 11:51 AM
I walked a mile in those shoes with you, I just don't believe it's always about "ME".

Sorry

When it comes to ones seniority itís always about ďMEĒ

putzin
01-11-2018, 12:37 PM
When it comes to ones seniority itís always about ďMEĒ


Generational difference, life experience.

Have a good week. I'm sure the next few will be full of turmoil. :D

CaptCoolHand
01-11-2018, 05:27 PM
Do they have to do the kobayashi maru?

http://giantgag.net/wp-content/uploads/2014/04/funny-do-you-ever-get-drunk-01.jpg

LMFAO

Floobs
01-12-2018, 12:24 PM
Bahahaha!!! Can we start a ďMost outlandish statement of the dayĒ thread?

Tell ya what....if we can do annual cognitive testing past age 65 then Iím on board. Oh wait.....even then Iím not.

GMAFB

To be honest we shouldn't have mandatory retirement age. We should have a more comprehensive medical exam one you hit 65. I know 75 year olds that climb the Matterhorn.

Qotsaautopilot
01-12-2018, 05:39 PM
To be honest we shouldn't have mandatory retirement age. We should have a more comprehensive medical exam one you hit 65. I know 75 year olds that climb the Matterhorn.

And they couldnít climb the Matterhorn unless they were retired. They had theyíre turn now move along

galaxy flyer
01-12-2018, 06:03 PM
And if climbing the Materhorn is ever made an ATP requirement, Iíll agree.

GF

max8222
01-12-2018, 08:45 PM
Maybe physically healthy enough to climb it, but does he remember doing it? Did he get to the top and yell at the clouds? Sarcasm inserted here!



QUOTE=galaxy flyer;2501466]And if climbing the Materhorn is ever made an ATP requirement, Iíll agree.

GF[/QUOTE]