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View Full Version : Civilian New Hire Stats?


Bonanzer
01-23-2018, 10:36 AM
Hello, just curious what that stats are for civilian new hires? Havenít gotten a call but here are my stats:

5600 TT
1100 Jet Pic
Bachelors degree
No incidents, accidents, violations
Current 121 captain

Seems to me they like to hire guys from my airline that are at about 10 yr longevity with 8000 plus hours.


80emb145
01-23-2018, 10:48 AM
I received the invite to interview at:

5100tt, mostly 121 with some 135
700tpic
121 check airman
Bachelors

at6d
01-23-2018, 11:16 AM
Two years ago for me:

7000+
1200 TPIC
4100 regional 121
2600 91 corporate
Training Manager
3 types (incl 737)
CFI alphabet
Volunteer work

Majority civies in my class had the type and similar times/backgrounds. Of course, the 737 type stat is no longer the case with new hires.


ZapBrannigan
01-23-2018, 11:35 AM
Four years ago for me.
10000+
1500TPIC
6000 part 121 regionals, other majors
2500 91 corporate
training manager
4 types (incl 737)
CFI, CFII, MEI, AGI, IGI
Aircraft Dispatcher
Bachelors
Volunteer work

All of the civilians in my class were between 8000-12000 TT... but there were only a handful of civilians in my class.


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Palmtree Pilot
01-23-2018, 04:11 PM
Was told in August during my sit down with a recruiter pilot at OBAP that my 9000 plus TT and 2100 plus 121 PIC was just starting to become competitive. They said everything looked great just keep applying in each window. My app went "under review" in that window, but now closed complete and no calls. I've been applying for 5 years so maybe one of these days they'll get to my lower qualification level, at least pray they do.

EngineOut
01-23-2018, 04:41 PM
Was told in August during my sit down with a recruiter pilot at OBAP that my 9000 plus TT and 2100 plus 121 PIC was just starting to become competitive. They said everything looked great just keep applying in each window. My app went "under review" in that window, but now closed complete and no calls. I've been applying for 5 years so maybe one of these days they'll get to my lower qualification level, at least pray they do.

In class now:
9600 TT
3000 TPIC (all CRJ and ERJ)
Lower 40's in age
E175 SkyWest Captain
4-year degree (Business)
No accidents
No checkairman
No type
No job fair
1 checkride failure (61 IR-A, 15 years ago)
Applied when I upgraded in 2014
Updated, every other window. Got the email after most recent update with new medical in September.

It is wonderful here. Totally different than anything you've ever experienced...worth the wait, definitely worth the effort.

Milksheikh
01-23-2018, 04:43 PM
Was told in August during my sit down with a recruiter pilot at OBAP that my 9000 plus TT and 2100 plus 121 PIC was just starting to become competitive. They said everything looked great just keep applying in each window. My app went "under review" in that window, but now closed complete and no calls. I've been applying for 5 years so maybe one of these days they'll get to my lower qualification level, at least pray they do.

This doesn't make much sense because from what I've heard, they're also taking some guys in their mid 20's too who couldn't have more than 5-6k total time. Anyone know what the avg age has been in recent classes? I also remember reading something about them trying to vary the ages a little so as not to have a giant retirement bubble further out.

flyguy81
01-23-2018, 07:38 PM
This doesn't make much sense because from what I've heard, they're also taking some guys in their mid 20's too who couldn't have more than 5-6k total time. Anyone know what the avg age has been in recent classes? I also remember reading something about them trying to vary the ages a little so as not to have a giant retirement bubble further out.

Oldest in the last 2 classes born in mid-60ís. Youngest born late 80ís-1990. Before that youngest was born early 80ís so depends on the class.

TheBlueBaron
01-23-2018, 08:07 PM
In a Jan. class
15,500 TT
8,100 TPIC
ATR72/42 & CL-65 Types
12 year 121 CA
No 121 Failures
BS-Aviation Flight Technology
No checkairmen
No job fairs
No accidents/incidents
Age: 44
Updated every window and updated flight times after every single trip

ZapBrannigan
01-24-2018, 01:23 AM
The downside for those of us hired in our mid 40s is only having around a decade (medical permitting) in the left seat. [emoji31]


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Jeff Lebowski
01-24-2018, 03:03 AM
The downside for those of us hired in our mid 40s is only having around a decade (medical permitting) in the left seat. [emoji31]


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You just had to point that out.

Guess I should probably just trash all these boat catalogs ...

Blackhawk
01-24-2018, 11:22 AM
The downside for those of us hired in our mid 40s is only having around a decade (medical permitting) in the left seat. [emoji31]


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Based upon current upgrades. Granted, one should be conservative. But we've seen upgrade times shift very quickly in the past. Who would have thought some would upgrade at six months over at DAL?

saab2000
01-24-2018, 11:28 AM
Based upon current upgrades. Granted, one should be conservative. But we've seen upgrade times shift very quickly in the past. Who would have thought some would upgrade at six months over at DAL?

Six month upgrades won't be happening at Southwest. It may come down and I would expect that it will come down, but it's still a long upgrade. Right now it seems to be running about 10 years.

e6bpilot
01-24-2018, 12:55 PM
It will trend down no doubt but I would be very surprised if it went below 8 or so years anytime soon. There is a big bubble of AirTran guys chomping at the bit to upgrade otherwise the upgrade time would go way way down.

hoover
01-24-2018, 02:20 PM
I'm curious to see how many of the 90xxx number guys pass when they get their chance this summer?

PotatoChip
01-24-2018, 06:27 PM
And even if it does come down to 8-10 years, that means you are going to take an upgrade to sit reserve in a domicile you may not want. More realistically, many people are going to wait 12 to 15 years upgrade In order to get what they want. Food for thought.

Blackhawk
01-24-2018, 08:01 PM
Six month upgrades won't be happening at Southwest. It may come down and I would expect that it will come down, but it's still a long upgrade. Right now it seems to be running about 10 years.

I was not saying it would. I'm just saying they may be hard to judge future upgrade times based upon current events. My point about the six months at DAL is that no one saw that coming just a few years ago.

Dukeuno
01-24-2018, 08:31 PM
4600 Pilots are going to have to retire between now and 2030( if it stays at 65). That is half the seniority list. Now who knows how Upgrade could go. SWA could end up buying another airline.

Proximity
01-24-2018, 10:19 PM
The last AirTran pilot is sitting at around 70%, upgrade is currently around 59%. For the pilots in the 59%-70% range, they could expect a 10+ year upgrade, especially those near the end of that cohort, due to them all having similar hire dates. However, after that there wasn't much hiring until 2014, and hiring really didn't take off until summer 2015. So for those hired 2014+ onwards, especially at the beginning of the hiring wave, they could expect to upgrade sooner.

ZapBrannigan
01-25-2018, 01:14 AM
Not perfect. I put in 2% growth just to settle the total pilot count at around 10,500. I figure that is reasonable growth over the next 5 years or so. I doubt we would get much over that.

What this says is that with normal retirement at a pilot count of just over 10,000 I could expect to upgrade in early 2024. Of course this wouldnít take into account mergers, furloughs, or other hiccups. Thatís right at 10 years to upgrade to whatever the most junior domicile is at the time.

This is with an early 2014 DOH

https://uploads.tapatalk-cdn.com/20180125/77385a2bb8cccebd6e03f47b53af077e.jpg


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Wingsuit
01-25-2018, 05:31 AM
Hello, just curious what that stats are for civilian new hires?

6500 TT
1350 TPIC
Prior 121
Corporate Check Airman
Associates degree
April Ď17 job fair

Interviewed July 2017
Started August 2017

e6bpilot
01-25-2018, 06:35 AM
Not perfect. I put in 2% growth just to settle the total pilot count at around 10,500. I figure that is reasonable growth over the next 5 years or so. I doubt we would get much over that.

What this says is that with normal retirement at a pilot count of just over 10,000 I could expect to upgrade in early 2024. Of course this wouldnít take into account mergers, furloughs, or other hiccups. Thatís right at 10 years to upgrade to whatever the most junior domicile is at the time.

This is with an early 2014 DOH

https://uploads.tapatalk-cdn.com/20180125/77385a2bb8cccebd6e03f47b53af077e.jpg


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I think that is a reasonable, conservative estimate.
On the flip side, hiring continues unfettered with a stated goal of over 800 pilots this year. I suck at math, but that is more than two percent.
I had a HQ type on the jumpseat. I asked him point blank why the hiring when we have no stated growth plans. I told him the theory held by some of not wanting to pay premium. He said it will all make sense soon and not to worry. When I asked what that meant he pointed to the thanksgiving holiday and said that we flew more seat miles and block hours with 40 less airplanes than last year and that Summer is coming and we are getting new and used airframes as fast as we can take them.
Basically the plan is to stretch the flying day and stop utilizing the planes in a two shift mentality when it comes to manning. With that comes decreased efficiency that requires more pilots to execute.
Look, I am not a rah rah this place is awesome guy, but I donít think SWA poured a bunch of cash into a new training center and Sims to hire a bunch of guys for three years and stop.
I personally donít care and as long as things stay good for me in the right seat, I donít plan on taking the first upgrade anyway. I am just trying to present the whole enchilada.

flyguy81
01-25-2018, 07:31 AM
I think that is a reasonable, conservative estimate.
On the flip side, hiring continues unfettered with a stated goal of over 800 pilots this year. I suck at math, but that is more than two percent.
I had a HQ type on the jumpseat. I asked him point blank why the hiring when we have no stated growth plans. I told him the theory held by some of not wanting to pay premium. He said it will all make sense soon and not to worry. When I asked what that meant he pointed to the thanksgiving holiday and said that we flew more seat miles and block hours with 40 less airplanes than last year and that Summer is coming and we are getting new and used airframes as fast as we can take them.
Basically the plan is to stretch the flying day and stop utilizing the planes in a two shift mentality when it comes to manning. With that comes decreased efficiency that requires more pilots to execute.
Look, I am not a rah rah this place is awesome guy, but I donít think SWA poured a bunch of cash into a new training center and Sims to hire a bunch of guys for three years and stop.
I personally donít care and as long as things stay good for me in the right seat, I donít plan on taking the first upgrade anyway. I am just trying to present the whole enchilada.


Makes sense. I live in base and am planning to take the first available in my base (depending on the age of the kids). I'd maybe commute to LAS for a little bit....but probably not. I'm lazy and like driving to work.

RJSAviator76
01-25-2018, 08:26 AM
Zap... though your graph may provide a reasonable guess over your career span, it's completely wrong for the near-term/present-day state of the affairs.

You guestimated our seniority list growth at 2% over the span of your career. That's a fair average estimate over the 20+ year period.

The airline may grow 2% or so per year, but that's not what we're measuring here. We are measuring the growth of the seniority list.
I'm coming up on 2 years on the property, and I'm already in the mid-80's percentage on the seniority list. That'll end up being a little over 7% growth per year during my time here. How long it continues is another question...

We're hiring at least 900 this year. As of this moment, 9187 pilots on the seniority list. Using SWAPA's projected seniority, 99 pilots reaching Age 65 for the rest of the year. Assume no early-outs or medicals. That puts us pretty close to 10,000 pilots by the end of this year.

According to your charted graph and projections, you're hitting 10,260 pilots 6 years from now. That's why your graph is wrong in the near term and depending on your vacancy preferences, you might find yourself very pleasantly surprised much sooner than you think.

Proximity
01-25-2018, 08:36 AM
Not perfect. I put in 2% growth just to settle the total pilot count at around 10,500.

Not perfect. I put in 2% growth just to settle the total pilot count at around 10,500.

This is my projections based on financials are out today. We're sitting at 706 aircraft, which gives us a ratio of 13 pilots per aircraft.

Aircraft orders including options (swa has always taken options):
2018 - 44
2019 - 22
2020 - 25
2021 - 34
2022 - 31
2023 - 57
2024 - 64
2025 - 76

Retirements:
2018 - 99
2019 - 133
2020 - 157
2021 - 195
2022 - 189
2023 - 235
2024 - 284
2025 - 305

Pilots needed to staff at 13 per aircraft and cover retirements:
2018 - New Hires: 671, Total: 9,732
2019 - New Hires: 419, Total: 10,018
2020 - New Hires: 482, Total: 10,343
2021 - New Hires: 637, Total: 10,785
2022 - New Hires: 592, Total: 11,188
2023 - New Hires: 403, Total: 11,356
2023 - New Hires: 976, Total: 12,087
2024 - New Hires: 1,116, Total: 12,929
2025 - New Hires: 1,290, Total: 13,914

First 2014 hire is at around 77% today. Based on the above projection they'll hit 60% early 2021, so that's a 7-8 year upgrade.

I'm not factoring in any attrition, medical issues, or more block hours per aircraft. Also not factored in is the purchase of more used NGs.

Unknowns are what will happen with the NG fleet longterm. Last year the company added 18 used NGs, and has yet to indicate there will be any NG retirements. I would guess that the plan is to keep all the NGs for the foreseeable future if the economy is good. If there is a downturn, I would guess we'd keep taking the MAXs and retire or store some of the oldest NGs. For these reason, I'd say number up to around 2023 are pretty good, after that it they start to get fuzzy. And as always, a major event could change everything.

RJSAviator76
01-25-2018, 08:41 AM
One other thing that many, myself included, also tend to overlook, and apparently that's also one of the drivers behind this hiring are the number of people crossing the vacation thresholds... Supposedly, many people crossing from 2 weeks of vacation to 3 weeks per year, also 3-4, and 4-5.

FWIW...

Proximity
01-25-2018, 08:58 AM
One other thing that many, myself included, also tend to overlook, and apparently that's also one of the drivers behind this hiring are the number of people crossing the vacation thresholds... Supposedly, many people crossing from 2 weeks of vacation to 3 weeks per year, also 3-4, and 4-5.

Efficiency will no doubt go down with increased vacation, more international flying, and more days of training per year (FAA mandates and ETOPS).

at6d
01-25-2018, 10:00 AM
LAX ETOPS base this year, 500 pilots there by November. Thatís my guess.

drivinghome
01-25-2018, 11:47 AM
6500 TT
1350 TPIC
Prior 121
Corporate Check Airman
Associates degree
April Ď17 job fair

Interviewed July 2017
Started August 2017
This gives me hope. So glad you posted.

ZapBrannigan
01-25-2018, 12:18 PM
Proximity:
Can you explain your math re: The 2014 hires hitting 60% in 2021? There were a lot of numbers in your post and I am easily confused. [emoji23]

RJSAviator76:
I picked the 2% just to get to what I believe to be a realistic number on the seniority list. Somewhere in the 10,500 neighborhood. I understand the chart doesnít reflect the actual growth of the seniority list over the last few years. So I was trying to figure out, if we had 10,500 pilots today, when would I upgrade? I think thatís what that 2023 number represents. It would be no different than if we had 10,500 pilots and I entered 0% growth. Based solely on retirements when would you hit that 60% mark? Or am I looking at it wrong?


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Proximity
01-25-2018, 12:31 PM
Sure thing. BTW I was off by one year...I should have written 60% by the end of 2021.

Take the first 2014 hire's seniority and subtract retirements thru the end of 2021. That puts them around 6470.

Pilot group at the the end of 2021, 10,785.

That puts that pilot right at 60%.

Upgrade on the bid that just came out was at 59.97%.

Attrition will be a little higher then only retirements. Also, I'd also assume we will still be looking for used NGs. Hence my optimism 2014 and later hires will have chance to upgrade in 2021.

ZapBrannigan
01-25-2018, 01:00 PM
Ok. I get it. And you are predicating the 10,785 number on fleet count, assuming we take delivery of all of the airplanes as planned and none are retired? (I assume some of the older NGs will be retired in the interim, but probably only a few dozen)

I like your optimism! I hope it ends up being true! I canít help but to wonder how many pilots they want on the list when the music stops. The retirements are anemic. Only 584 in the next 4 years. Thatís depressing compared with what is happening at the legacies. So we are all going to be counting on seniority list growth to bridge that gap. I donít care if they grow the list by growing hulls, or by growing block hours... as long as itís sustainable of course.

Thanks for showing your work! My kiddo graduates high school in Spring of 2024. I canít imagine taking an upgrade before that, so Iíll be passing in 2021 if youíre right!


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RJSAviator76
01-25-2018, 01:33 PM
Zap, I'm going by "12,000 pilots on the list by 2022." That's been coming out of GO now since I've been here, and given the numbers and the hiring that's taken place since I've been here and forecast going forward, the numbers add up. Essentially, it's around 850 or so newhires per year.

So, using myseniority, I've used 7% as seniority list growth rate and stretched it out on the graph until January 2022. I know it sounds ridiculously high, but when someone not on the property two full years is in the mid-80's percentage systemwide, what do you think?

We've been kicked for way too long so now we bark and bite at anyone offering anything but doom and gloom. I think your timing here has been fantastic, and I think you'll upgrade in 2021 assuming the hiring and the plans continue as told today.

Those of us hired in 2015-2016 era, I'd venture late 2021 to 2022 most likely.

flyguy81
01-25-2018, 01:55 PM
Zap, I'm going by "12,000 pilots on the list by 2022." That's been coming out of GO now since I've been here, and given the numbers and the hiring that's taken place since I've been here and forecast going forward, the numbers add up. Essentially, it's around 850 or so newhires per year.

So, using myseniority, I've used 7% as seniority list growth rate and stretched it out on the graph until January 2022. I know it sounds ridiculously high, but when someone not on the property two full years is in the mid-80's percentage systemwide, what do you think?

We've been kicked for way too long so now we bark and bite at anyone offering anything but doom and gloom. I think your timing here has been fantastic, and I think you'll upgrade in 2021 assuming the hiring and the plans continue as told today.

Those of us hired in 2015-2016 era, I'd venture late 2021 to 2022 most likely.

I'll take a 7-8 yr upgrade. Could be sooner too depending on people deferring for family or schedule reasons. There's hundreds who could hold it now if they wanted and are choosing to bypass.

Cysco4120
01-25-2018, 02:00 PM
I'm curious to see how many of the 90xxx number guys pass when they get their chance this summer?


Iím one of those 90xxx numbers. I hit 10 years in June and Iím roughly 400 numbers from upgrade. I can only speak for myself but I imagine I wonít take an upgrade for another 2 years at least. I commute and Iím not commuting to reserve. Life as a senior FO is too good. The other big factor is roughly 850 FOís have bypassed upgrade probably for some of the same reasons. So I think my number might come up this fall but it will probably be another year or two before I could hold a line.

Someone also mentioned additional staffing because of increased vacation weeks. I think all of us 90xxx numbers will be at 4 weeks next year.

Proximity
01-25-2018, 05:20 PM
Ok. I get it. And you are predicating the 10,785 number on fleet count, assuming we take delivery of all of the airplanes as planned and none are retired? (I assume some of the older NGs will be retired in the interim, but probably only a few dozen)

10,785 just based on taking delivery of all airplanes and maintaining the current staffing ratio. That's only about an 18% increase from where we stand today.

I'm also guessing that at-least as far in the future as 2021-2022 we will continue to purchase used 700s and not retire any airplanes. In the financials they report they only plan to purchase 4 used airplanes this year, but I think in reality they'll purchase any good/cheap 700s they can find.

ZapBrannigan
01-25-2018, 06:03 PM
In the 4th quarter earnings briefing they said:

ďWe will have significant 737-700 NG retirements over the next 10 years to 15 years based on their age and this order book refresh, along with our remaining order book and option, which allow us to manage through those retirement in a measure way, while allowing flexibility for growth.Ē

Granted that is a time horizon far beyond the next 5 years.


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e6bpilot
01-26-2018, 06:54 AM
The guy ďin the knowĒ on the jumpseat told us that they are looking to retire some of the older, high cycle 700s sooner rather than later and replace them with low cycle used airplanes.
After retiring the 300s, they have realized that dispatch reliability is huge and a broken originator can cause a huge and costly ripple on a peak flying day with no spare airplanes.
I donít want to mention the dude by name, but he was a straight shooter and not a kool aid guy at all.
Look at the airplanes you fly now on the Line. I bet a good half or more of the 700s are not original SWA deliveries. There are some dead giveaways...a bondo'd hole where a wiper switch used to be, SELCAL placards, etc. Those airplanes arenít part of the order book and fly under the radar on investor reports.

ZapBrannigan
01-26-2018, 08:41 AM
It was so new that the printer and window shades were still in the trash can in the galley! [emoji44][emoji1]


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Proximity
01-26-2018, 08:58 AM
Those airplanes arenít part of the order book and fly under the radar on investor reports.

They do put used airplane purchases in the reports, for 2018 they predict 4 used 700s. I forget how many they predicted for 2017, but they bought more then what they told investors. I've believe we've stopped looking for 700s when a quarter goes by and we don't report buying any. I get the feeling that our main limitation right now is airplanes.

e6bpilot
01-26-2018, 09:11 AM
They do put used airplane purchases in the reports, for 2018 they predict 4 used 700s. I forget how many they predicted for 2017, but they bought more then what they told investors. I've believe we've stopped looking for 700s when a quarter goes by and we don't report buying any. I get the feeling that our main limitation right now is airplanes.



Yeah thatís what I meant about under the radar. They appear, but I donít think all of the aircraft are counted as a growth metric. We ended up getting a bunch over the last couple of years. If they are replacing old aircraft I doubt anyone even blinks.
The guy (way smarter than me) who was filling me in on the details of all this said that it is way cheaper in the long run to buy a reliable, low cycle used aircraft than continue to operate and maintain aircraft around the age of our older NGs with high cycles, more inspections, and low dispatch reliability. There is a break even point somewhere in there that someone smarter than me figured out.

hoover
01-31-2018, 07:59 AM
Iím one of those 90xxx numbers. I hit 10 years in June and Iím roughly 400 numbers from upgrade. I can only speak for myself but I imagine I wonít take an upgrade for another 2 years at least. I commute and Iím not commuting to reserve. Life as a senior FO is too good. The other big factor is roughly 850 FOís have bypassed upgrade probably for some of the same reasons. So I think my number might come up this fall but it will probably be another year or two before I could hold a line.

Someone also mentioned additional staffing because of increased vacation weeks. I think all of us 90xxx numbers will be at 4 weeks next year.

Thanks for the feedback. That's the general consensus I hear from your peers.
Now we'll see how splitting the group up into ETOPS will affect upgrade.
Also dare I mention another type...

Thunder1
02-05-2018, 08:41 PM
You just had to point that out.

Guess I should probably just trash all these boat catalogs ...

Go ahead and keep those boat catalogs.....mid-level F/Os can be making 250K+ total compensation here. Life is good here....not perfect, but very good. :)

Jeff Lebowski
02-06-2018, 06:54 AM
Go ahead and keep those boat catalogs.....mid-level F/Os can be making 250K+ total compensation here. Life is good here....not perfect, but very good. :)

At every job I've ever had I've had to live the Good Life vicariously, through the CA's I've flown with. But if I ever do upgrade, I've got a TON of ideas.

First I'll get a really nice boat. Or horses--a man can't go wrong with horses. Or guns.

I'll get a team of Clydesdales to pull my boat trailer. Then I'll get a quad-fifty and mount it on the stern just for grins.

I'll be the baddest individual on Lake Lewisville ...

Happyflyer
02-06-2018, 09:22 AM
At every job I've ever had I've had to live the Good Life vicariously, through the CA's I've flown with. But if I ever do upgrade, I've got a TON of ideas.

First I'll get a really nice boat. Or horses--a man can't go wrong with horses. Or guns.

I'll get a team of Clydesdales to pull my boat trailer. Then I'll get a quad-fifty and mount it on the stern just for grins.

I'll be the baddest individual on Lake Lewisville ...

Best plan I've ever heard!



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