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fenix1
02-02-2018, 02:52 PM
I'm a career changer on track to begin flying professionally in my early 40's. I'd envisioned pursuing Part 121 opportunities flying pax (a destination job with Big 3/legacy or perhaps a major or LCC), but - at this point - I'm finding myself motivated to learn more about Part 121 cargo roles as I'm getting indications it might be a better fit for me, personally.

One of my big motivations for flying pax has been a perceived increased threat of unmanned aviation adversely affecting cargo flying (relative to pax). Given that I'll have 25+ years until mandated retirement, is my concern with unmanned aviation affecting cargo (more than pax) legitimate or unfounded? Should this be a significant factor in my decision to pursue cargo or pax opportunities?

I've looked into the threat posed by unmanned aviation to a flying career a significant amount and for every input one way there's an input the other way, so I've essentially cast my general fear of unmanned aviation aside and focused on my passion for flying. But I'm uncertain whether unmanned aviation is substantially more of a threat to cargo ops than pax. I apologize if this thread seems out of place here, but I couldn't think of a better group to ask so thanks for any help you're good enough to provide.


Jet757
02-02-2018, 03:04 PM
I think you're gonna be alright.

In my opinion we'll have to go a long way before we'll see an unmanned 777 goofing off in the sky. The public is terrified of flying to begin with. One of the main reasons in my opinion why it won't happen for a while is that passengers look for that last bit of human connection. And yes while freighters don't have pax, the public on the ground still wouldn't be comfortable with that. People would rather place their lives in the hands of other humans, not machines. It's more relatable and therefore more calming in psychological sense. Just my $.02

BoilerUP
02-02-2018, 03:11 PM
I’m in my mid-30s and not worried in the least about remote-piloted transport category cargo aircraft interfering with my career.


Ray Kinsella
02-02-2018, 04:04 PM
I used to be concerned. Not at all now. The Iranians have mastered the hacking of supposed stealth UAVs. Our military also has the same capability. In my opinion we will never see a 747/777 unmanned due to the potential of it being hacked and flown into a city.

Ray Kinsella
02-02-2018, 04:08 PM
The UAV folks in the USAF supposedly want autonomous drones meaning you press a button and it completes its predetermined flight path independent of, and not subject to, outside control. The hacking risk is so high remotely piloted is not viable for airline size platforms.

I just can’t foresee an autonomous 747!

Flydaplane
02-02-2018, 05:47 PM
I wouldn't worry too much until trains are all autonomous. They are on rails and don't have to contend with weather too much. Still have engineers in the cockpit. Knowhere near as complex as flying a plane. It may happen, but first would be a reduced cockpit of 1 pilot. If that happens probably got another 10-20 years before you'd need to worry about them flying solo. Airlines buying planes right now that they'll fly for 15+ years.

CL300
02-03-2018, 06:10 AM
My buddy flies drones in the Air Force. He says the general public has no idea how many we lose every month because of the poor infrastructure, and they don’t have plans to improve it soon. It would take years and billions of dollars to build an infrastructure capable of reliably piloting unmanned airliners and nobody will be willing to commit the resources to it.

The certification for Part 25 airplanes today is years in length. To add extra redundancies and ensure the flying public these planes couldn’t be hacked and flown into an elementary school would be an undertaking the manufacturers likely wouldn’t commit to. In the long run, it’s much cheaper to have a couple schleps in the front seat to handle the flying.

TiredSoul
02-03-2018, 08:27 AM
I used to be concerned. Not at all now. The Iranians have mastered the hacking of supposed stealth UAVs. Our military also has the same capability. In my opinion we will never see a 747/777 unmanned due to the potential of it being hacked and flown into a city.

This ^^^
The technology may be there or not far out from present but a safe enough data link may never be accomplished.
Look back at WW2 and the use of gliders during D-Day. I can foresee one time use cargo drones in war zones.
Troops in engagement and low on ammo and a disposable drone crash lands with new supplies.
Reusable cargo drones to and from forward air bases over hostile terrain.
But I don’t see converted pilotless freighters over congested areas.
We can’t even secure our national electrical grid.

fenix1
02-03-2018, 10:38 PM
Thanks to all and great points all around.

If unmanned aviation somehow sneaks up on us, will a career flying cargo likely be more at-risk than a career flying pax?

HwkrPlt
02-04-2018, 02:42 AM
Women have been pilots for a while now, I'm not sure why this is being discussed.

JackStraw
02-04-2018, 02:48 AM
What people don’t consider is that today’s public would be terrified of riding on a drone aircraft, but tomorrow’s public won’t be. The future public will be today’s kids who grew up with internet and iPads. They will have a lot more trust in technology and it’s exponential. It’s coming faster than you think. 20 years maybe.

BoilerUP
02-04-2018, 03:48 AM
I personally think cargo ops are more “at risk” for RPA operations than passenger ops.

That said, consider this:

Major freight airports are generally located in and around large metro areas. How so you think Joe Citizen and Mayor Bagodonuts would feel about streams of unmanned widebodies going over homes in the middle of the night?

Besides public acceptance at large, there are certification concerns about redundancy of aircraft and datalink robustness/security...especially operating on any significant scale.

Capital costs mean the value proposition simply does not exist for civil aviation, even discounting vaporware technology to enable it.

The Air Force will have remote piloted C-17s full of material and personnel going into hostile AOs *well* before the robots start to take our jerbs...

aiir
02-04-2018, 05:49 AM
I feel that there are many more things that plane manufacturers need to iron out before concentrating their efforts on unmanned airplanes.

The general public would value improved speed of airtravel a whole lot more than pilotless airplanes. Spending less time in the tube would be gravy for them, and even better for airlines since it means more flights and or better utilization of aircraft. Cargo moving faster would also be amazing.

Fuel technologies need to be improved. Our general public is increasingly more aware and worried in this area, and greener planes would be up on their list of wants.

I could list more things. Lol... but I suspect that no customer of any airline goes like, gee, you know what I really need right about now as I’m barreling down the air in this tube, is for the pilots to be gone and replaced by a computer. Especially since they know that this won’t in anyway affect their ticket prices.

I suspect that in the future you’re going to have a sort of pilot engineer onboard the aircraft. Someone who knows how to fly, but at the same time, it won’t be a maverick that will dazzle you with their stick and rudder skills. It’ll be a guy who is very intricately familiar with the systems of the plane and can trouble shoot any problem with the software. This will go on for a while until he is slowly phased out. But I still think this is at least 50 years away. The magnitude of the systems and testing that must be done is still very massive, along all of the safety mechanisms and back up systems that must be figured out. I suspect that by the time this happens, a great part of our world will have gone down this rabbit hole and our landscape will be very different.

Things don’t happen in vacuums or as single events. If you have large planes that can fly themselves, it means that we have taken a big stride as a species in other areas as well. Remember, the airplane itself had to come after the car, because we needed an engine that was light enough that fly with.

Anyways, let’s see what this “new” Boeing plane will look like because Airbus is certainly pushing the envelope of technology with those big screens on the A350 that display the same information that a 320 did like 30 years ago, and same goes for the 787 and C-Series. All great planes, but certainly moving at a snails pace on their way to being fully autonomous, and certainly don’t warrant all these threads on APC regarding the subject. Lol

BlazingSaddles
02-04-2018, 07:27 AM
This is one issue to pilotless aircraft.

http://www.aviationtoday.com/2017/11/08/boeing-757-testing-shows-airplanes-vulnerable-hacking-dhs-says/

Another issue is GPS. Almost everything we fly nowadays is GPS based so if gps gets compromised so does navigation. Now yes I know gps reverts to vor/vor or dme/dome and yes I know INS systems exist but until the worked out both of those issues I don’t see pilots going away. I could see maybe a single pilot aircraft but even then I feel like that’s a stretch due to incapacitation issues.

CaptainHvac
02-04-2018, 04:59 PM
It's an interesting question for sure. Reading the posts I see some people dont understand the exponential nature of technology evolution. (Moores law= Computing processing speed doubles every 18 months as a very basic example) Yes, if technology growth remained linear then no way would we have pilotless or minus one pilot aircraft in 20 years. If you think about business advantages and exponential technology growth, then there will become time in the future and almost instantly, where if Fedex, UPS, and Amazon DONT have a pilotless plane then they will be at a severe financial disadvantage and wont be able to compete. The public wont care if large planes are flying overhead if its proven without a doubt a pilotless airplane is much much safer than a human flown one, and that time will come sooner than later (it wouldnt matter if they did either...large companies tell the public what they want, not the other way around). Its all about exponentail growth of technology. Heck, IBMs Watson is already proven to be better in legal cases than a human Lawyer.

esa17
02-04-2018, 05:19 PM
In this thread we see who doesn’t know a think about unmanned aviation.

I firmly believe we will see single pilot 121 operations in our lifetimes with an unmanned datalink backup.

Also, the Iranians didn’t “hack” anything.

FlyNavy628
02-04-2018, 07:36 PM
Ok I'll bite. WRT to UPS the salary cost of the pilots is ~$630 million (average $225k*2800+/-) which is about 1% of their gross income. Fuel is ... way more than 1%.

Do I think we are going to lose the IRO on transcon in the next 30 years? Possible. Pilots in the cockpit for T/O and Landing in those major metropolitan areas. Going down to 1 pilot doesn't make sense. The whole point is redundancy and a second set of eyes on the human element. The cost savings doesn't justify the change in risk.

Do I think we are going to go pilotless for big airplanes in the next 30 years? No. There are too many vulnerabilities in the spectrum that it just doesn't make sense to rely solely on it. Additionally there is too much risk of that computer going haywire .0000001% of the time. What was it 2 months ago in ATL where the system and all the back ups failed?

Is AI good? Sure, but what happens when you have a plane take off out of JFK fly through a flock of birds and the computer computes that it try to Teterboro because a HUMAN!! programmed it, but crashes in Hoboken? It'll be the end of pilotless airplanes that's for sure.

If I was in charge, I'd be looking for technology to bring my fuel cost down, and efficiency up before cutting the man in the loop. Then again I'm just a pilot.

Harrisburg
02-04-2018, 08:18 PM
but I couldn't think of a better group to ask so thanks for any help you're good enough to provide.

So you think cargo pilots have the inside knowledge of when robots are taking over?

fenix1
02-05-2018, 01:56 AM
A rimshot sounded in my noggin as I read this - well played, sir/ma’am, well played

Women have been pilots for a while now, I'm not sure why this is being discussed.

fenix1
02-05-2018, 02:02 AM
This definitely concerns me. Also, the idea that ‘necessity is the mother of invention’ is disconcerting as the pilot shortage (pay shortage??) deepens. But there’s so many practical things to overcome and the carrot (reduced labor costs) aren’t nearly as significant to the bottom line as many perceive them to be. There’s plenty of inputs going both ways toward unmanned aviation, but the fact that so many of you scoff at the question is reassuring.

What people don’t consider is that today’s public would be terrified of riding on a drone aircraft, but tomorrow’s public won’t be. The future public will be today’s kids who grew up with internet and iPads. They will have a lot more trust in technology and it’s exponential. It’s coming faster than you think. 20 years maybe.

fenix1
02-05-2018, 02:05 AM
I don’t mean to be confrontational (honest question), but do you mind if I ask what your background/credentials/experience/etc is that you believe has given you greater insight than most into unmanned aviation? I appreciate you weighing in - thanks a lot.

In this thread we see who doesn’t know a think about unmanned aviation.

I firmly believe we will see single pilot 121 operations in our lifetimes with an unmanned datalink backup.

Also, the Iranians didn’t “hack” anything.

fenix1
02-05-2018, 02:17 AM
Pilots know everything - just ask them!

All kidding aside, I asked the pilot group because: A). They’re doing the job everyday right now meaning they (pilots) understand the challenges that unmanned aviation would need to be able to effectively address; B). They understand the automation present in modern equipment (aircraft) better than anyone (except possibly the engineers and/or mechanics...but that crowd is better equipped to share how things are SUPPOSED to work, not how they actually do on a regular basis); C). This group has the most to lose if unmanned aviation emerges so I figured most would be monitoring the latest developments pretty closely; D). I figured a few folks had to be waiting for chow & a barley soda in a hotel bar/restaurant somewhere and might be good enough to fill that idle layover time by making me less dumb on the matter.

For the practical & realistic insight I hoped to gain, I didn’t think there was a better group to ask.

So you think cargo pilots have the inside knowledge of when robots are taking over?

SideSticker
02-05-2018, 04:27 AM
If you are imagining your curent jet without a pilot, you are thinking about this all wrong.


Boeing Unveils New Unmanned Cargo Air Vehicle Prototype
The electric vertical-takeoff-and-landing multi-copter UAV is designed to carry up to 500 pounds

The prototype aims to further develop and mature the building blocks of autonomy and electric propulsion

NEWS PROVIDED BY

Boeing
Jan 10, 2018, 12:15 ET

CHICAGO, Jan. 10, 2018 /PRNewswire/ -- Boeing [NYSE: BA] today unveiled a new unmanned electric vertical-takeoff-and-landing (eVTOL) cargo air vehicle (CAV) prototype that will be used to test and evolve Boeing's autonomy technology for future aerospace vehicles. It is designed to transport a payload up to 500 pounds for possible future cargo and logistics applications.

"This flying cargo air vehicle represents another major step in our Boeing eVTOL strategy," said Boeing Chief Technology Officer Greg Hyslop. "We have an opportunity to really change air travel and transport, and we'll look back on this day as a major step in that journey."

In less than three months, a team of engineers and technicians across the company designed and built the CAV prototype. It successfully completed initial flight tests at Boeing Research & Technology's Collaborative Autonomous Systems Laboratory in Missouri.

Boeing researchers will use the prototype as a flying test bed to mature the building blocks of autonomous technology for future applications. Boeing HorizonX, with its partners in Boeing Research & Technology, led the development of the CAV prototype, which complements the eVTOL passenger air vehicle prototype aircraft in development by Aurora Flight Sciences, a company acquired by Boeing late last year.

"Our new CAV prototype builds on Boeing's existing unmanned systems capabilities and presents new possibilities for autonomous cargo delivery, logistics and other transportation applications," said Steve Nordlund, Boeing HorizonX vice president. "The safe integration of unmanned aerial systems is vital to unlocking their full potential. Boeing has an unmatched track record, regulatory know-how and systematic approach to deliver solutions that will shape the future of autonomous flight."

Powered by an environmentally-friendly electric propulsion system, the CAV prototype is outfitted with eight counter rotating blades allowing for vertical flight. It measures 15 feet long (4.57 meters), 18 feet wide (5.49 meters) and 4 feet tall (1.22 meters), and weighs 747 pounds (339 kilograms).

Chicago-based Boeing is the world's largest aerospace company and leading manufacturer of commercial jetliners and defense, space and security systems. A top U.S. exporter, the company supports airlines and U.S. and allied government customers in 150 countries.

BoilerUP
02-05-2018, 04:59 AM
If you are imagining your current jet without a pilot, you are thinking about this all wrong.

Airplanes and their associated support cost a LOT of money, but they have a relatively long useful lifespan to amortize acquisition costs.

In just the last few weeks we've seen FDX and especially UPS stock take a beating when CEOs say they are going to take income and tax reform savings and invest it in CapEx to grow the business instead of returning it to shareholders via dividends or stock buybacks.

There are no single/remote piloted narrowbody civil cargo aircraft on a 10 year horizon that could carry even the 3T payload of the recently announced Cessna 408 SkyCourier...let alone 20T+ like a narrowbody 738, 320/321, or 757 to say nothing of widebodies. As cargo fleets continue to age, they will be recapitalized with current generation aircraft that have 30+ year lifespans. It is that next generation of aircraft, maybe, possibly, that will have single/remote pilot capabilities...

Capital costs are but one reason "fear" of this is greatly overblown in any of our lifetimes.

Low Flyin
02-05-2018, 08:19 AM
Airlines are doing well now...but just a few years ago they were declaring bankruptcy

SaltyDog
02-05-2018, 08:34 AM
Most interesting conversation on this topic I heard: One rarely mentioned.
The lawyers will keep it from happening in the legal realm based on numerous issues.
Liability in other countries...
communities suing to prevent pilotless airliners from flying over their neighborhood on approach or takeoff...
Would be tied up in litigation and negotiations for decades to iron out the risks etc
Reagrdless, a long time away for anyone in the business today or just starting out.

package puppy
02-05-2018, 02:04 PM
....and yet there seems to be no shortage of those who are willing to spend significant negotiating capital on useless contract language in a vain attempt to alleviate fears that could easily be proven wrong if they would educate themselves on the cost of certifying a FAR Part 25 airliners to single or no pilots. Sigh, perhaps they need a new tin foil hat?

esa17
02-05-2018, 05:12 PM
I don’t mean to be confrontational (honest question), but do you mind if I ask what your background/credentials/experience/etc is that you believe has given you greater insight than most into unmanned aviation? I appreciate you weighing in - thanks a lot.

After I earned my ATP and A&P I spent 5 years flying two different types of tactical unmanned aircraft on 3 continents. Everything from anti-drug interdiction to other...stuff.

TiredSoul
02-05-2018, 06:02 PM
After I earned my ATP and A&P I spent 5 years flying two different types of tactical unmanned aircraft on 3 continents. Everything from anti-drug interdiction to other...stuff.

So that makes you an expert in wide body cargo operations?
You may know more then most of us about the drone-driving business but there’s people here that know more about the cargo-moving business.

You need seemless transition systems between different countries and different continents.
Good luck with that.
Never gonna happen..

C130driver
02-05-2018, 08:19 PM
What people don’t consider is that today’s public would be terrified of riding on a drone aircraft, but tomorrow’s public won’t be. The future public will be today’s kids who grew up with internet and iPads. They will have a lot more trust in technology and it’s exponential. It’s coming faster than you think. 20 years maybe.

Yeah, until George starts having technical issues and starts crashing. They will set them straight.

G550Guy
02-06-2018, 04:32 AM
The future public will be today’s kids who grew up with internet and iPads. They will have a lot more trust in technology and it’s exponential. It’s coming faster than you think. 20 years maybe.


And you somehow think this makes them more intelligent??? I fail to see your point.

The most intelligent men/women on earth broke the sound barrier, created a hi bypass engine, went to the moon and back.... all with a slide ruler. Not one of them had an iPad.

These “super smart snowflakes” haven’t shown me much to be honest... unless you count the graphics on an Xbox.



Sent from my iPhone using Tapatalk

JackStraw
02-06-2018, 05:00 AM
And you somehow think this makes them more intelligent??? I fail to see your point.

The most intelligent men/women on earth broke the sound barrier, created a hi bypass engine, went to the moon and back.... all with a slide ruler. Not one of them had an iPad.

These “super smart snowflakes” haven’t shown me much to be honest... unless you count the graphics on an Xbox.



Sent from my iPhone using Tapatalk


How can you fail to see my point? I’ll dumb it down for you. They’re stupid (like you said). So, boarding a pilotlesss airplane with a face-full of smartphone would be a no-brainer for them.

You actually contradicted yourself. Nice post.

CactusCrew
02-06-2018, 06:56 AM
Whatever happens in the future of "unmanned" commercial aviation, rest assured, UPS will not lead the way. They will boldly follow, where others have ventured successfully.

Think of the logistics of unmanned flight into different countries and airspace. Then think of the ineptitude of this company to procure simple items.

Someday airliners may be unmanned. That's probably when UPS will be parking its MD-11 fleet and will be able to procure some high time B777s with lousy seats.

:D:D:D

esa17
02-06-2018, 09:37 AM
So that makes you an expert in wide body cargo operations?
You may know more then most of us about the drone-driving business but there’s people here that know more about the cargo-moving business.

You need seemless transition systems between different countries and different continents.
Good luck with that.
Never gonna happen..

Yeah, because amazon purchases are a lot more logistically tricky than multi-spectral optics, MPRs, or encrypted sensors. The time I spent working with DARPA on this exact thing just must have been wasted time.

The days of the cargo pilot are numbered.

tomgoodman
02-06-2018, 10:30 AM
The days of the cargo pilot are numbered.

That number is probably large, because cargo haulers (unlike DOD), have to make a profit. Show Fred how much he will save and how soon; only then will he reach for his checkbook.

Anderson
02-06-2018, 10:51 AM
The days of the cargo pilot are numbered.


What about the days of the passenger pilot? Honest question.



Sent from my iPhone using Tapatalk

SaltyDog
02-06-2018, 12:14 PM
The days of the cargo pilot are numbered.

And that is a true statement. The end of the world is nigh is also true, but when is nigh?
The discussion is when. Many in this thread opine a significant time for all to occur so in their careers of even younger pilots, not an immediate threat.

Many, myself included, also have researched/worked with/collaborated with folks who are AI engineers, EE's, Test pilots, aero engineers, security experts (physical security to electronic security), scientists, politicians, FAA officials, etc. Like many things, even with same experience, training, background, we find wide ranging conclusions as to timeline. Certainly a march is on for this vision.

Legal and economic realities often take precedence over technology.

Military has many advantages that abates the economic issues as well as some of the more common business legal and logistic realities.
If one equates an equal landscape (military=business), then haven't talked to corporate legal and business leaders.
Fun to speculate though ;)

vprof
02-06-2018, 12:46 PM
I don't think people realize that unpiloted aircraft still have pilots somewhere at the controls. If UPS wants to pay me to login and fly there MD-11 to CGN from my couch, count me in:)

esa17
02-06-2018, 03:08 PM
What about the days of the passenger pilot? Honest question.



Sent from my iPhone using Tapatalk

I believe we will see single pilot 121 operations within 25 years. The data links won’t require intense bandwidth since they will only transmit telemetry and not ultra high-res video. Instead of a co-pilot you’ll see a dispatcher working 5 workstations acting as an SIC in the event of necessary intervention or sharing the workload during an IFE. Under normal operations the pilot will be heavily assisted by the robust autopilot systems that are so prevalent in UASs.

The augmented systems will allow hyper accurate flow-control during all phases of flight increasing safety, efficiency and reducing costs. The pilot will still be in charge but the GCS will time the flight plan to the second.

Once private space flight drops the bottom out of SATCOM prices you’ll see the augmented flight deck take off, so to speak.

Next, someone will say: “What about when the autopilot fails?” Well, what happens now? The only time I had a near miss with a manned aircraft it was because the manned aircraft was someplace he wasn’t supposed to be.

And as far as the logistics between countries...Do you not realize we are already doing that? I used to love the looks of 121 pilots when my large UAV taxied by them at an international airport.

TiredSoul
02-06-2018, 03:19 PM
Yes...and we still need to call on VHF 15-20 min before a FIR crossing and ATC controllers sound like they’re outside under a tarp in a rain shower talking into a zinc bucket.
And frequency changes every 3 min in Europe.
:rolleyes:

BlazingSaddles
02-06-2018, 07:10 PM
So here’s the question. We get semi trucks driving across country without a driver, ships moving across the seas without people at the controls and airplanes flying around the world without pilots. Many basic min wage jobs are going bye bye due to automation, factory worker jobs are going away due to automation

1: what happens when/if the gps satellites go down due to failure, hacking/jamming or some typw of solar flare or magnetic pole reversal

2: what exactly do all these people who now have no job/career do for work/money.

At some point all the automation becomes its own death unless a basic income law goes into effect because people can’t afford it because there are no jobs.

FTFFv2
02-06-2018, 09:36 PM
I believe we will see single pilot 121 operations within 25 years. The data links won’t require intense bandwidth since they will only transmit telemetry and not ultra high-res video. Instead of a co-pilot you’ll see a dispatcher working 5 workstations acting as an SIC in the event of necessary intervention or sharing the workload during an IFE. Under normal operations the pilot will be heavily assisted by the robust autopilot systems that are so prevalent in UASs.

The augmented systems will allow hyper accurate flow-control during all phases of flight increasing safety, efficiency and reducing costs. The pilot will still be in charge but the GCS will time the flight plan to the second.

Once private space flight drops the bottom out of SATCOM prices you’ll see the augmented flight deck take off, so to speak.

Next, someone will say: “What about when the autopilot fails?” Well, what happens now? The only time I had a near miss with a manned aircraft it was because the manned aircraft was someplace he wasn’t supposed to be.

And as far as the logistics between countries...Do you not realize we are already doing that? I used to love the looks of 121 pilots when my large UAV taxied by them at an international airport.

Because tech is evolving rapidly, everything else will evolve rapidly? Your basic argument here fails many logic tests without even getting into the aviation specific example.

The biggest thing you forgot / overlooked / didn’t know about is that nothing moves fast in aviation. ATC is still working on next gen tech which is 20 years behind our iPhone’s tech (Getting a text message uplink is still a big deal in 121). UAV integration will be require a long, drawn out process for implementation not only for ATC reasons but for legal and international ones too. The system isn’t even focusing on anything like that at the moment. Just because the tech is available doesn’t mean the industry is ready, willing, or able.

Aircraft orders (Boeing and Airbus) go into the mid 2020’s. Planes that will be sold in the late 20’s-30’s are on the drawing board right now. I’d imagine manufacturers are starting to consider design features that will make a conversion to the single pilot mod affordable for these future aircraft but it doesn’t seem there is much info suggesting this is the actual case. Nevertheless, youre looking at the 40’s before anything gets tried out for demonstration and into the 50’s until a dedicated single pilot airline size plane makes to the market. Then you start fleet replacement which will carry on into the 60’s and 70’s. Remember, these are 50-100m toys, you can’t just rapidly swap everything out because a single operating cost factor can be reduced.

Autopilot vs manned example: another failed logic argument on your part. Remind us all of the crash rate of drones vs manned aircraft. And you never answered the question, when the AP does fail what is the backup strategy. Your first answer as a drone flyer should have been fail safe protocols used on backup control systems. But when a cargo fire takes most of that out....1 heavy crash into a neighborhood is more expensive than keeping a human onboard.

Agree single pilot is on the horizon, just a little longer than 25 years out imo.

fenix1
02-07-2018, 01:39 AM
Great discussion and thanks to all, particularly esa17 for weighing-in with what's shaped up so far as a minority opinion/conclusion but one based on first-hand experience with unmanned aviation.

whalesurfer
02-07-2018, 02:25 AM
I don't think people realize that unpiloted aircraft still have pilots somewhere at the controls. If UPS wants to pay me to login and fly there MD-11 to CGN from my couch, count me in:)

They’ll gladly sign you up.
Except you’ll be doing it all from a couch in your trailer, somewhere in eastern Kentucky. Well, at least for a few years. That’s when they’ll move you to Shenzhen or Almaty.. :rolleyes:

whalesurfer
02-07-2018, 02:59 AM
...
At some point all the automation becomes its own death unless a basic income law goes into effect because people can’t afford it because there are no jobs.
“Basic income law”? :D

Too funny.
Bernie, you act like this is the first time in humankind’s history people have invented and improved things?

http://rlv.zcache.com/caveman_wheel_invention_jet_lag_greeting_cards-rfdf35829bfb648a2869a9c2efd6048d2_xvuak_8byvr_512. jpg

BlazingSaddles
02-07-2018, 04:24 AM
“Basic income law”? :D

Too funny.
Bernie, you act like this is the first time in humankind’s history people have invented and improved things?

http://rlv.zcache.com/caveman_wheel_invention_jet_lag_greeting_cards-rfdf35829bfb648a2869a9c2efd6048d2_xvuak_8byvr_512. jpg

Not at all but basically outsourcing of a different form. Believe me I’d rather not see that but if you take this whole automation/driverless machines to the extreme end of it where taxi drivers are not needed sailors are not needed, train engineers are not needed, pilots, cashiers assembly workers and so on at some point you’d have to look around and say well what jobs/industries are there left. I don’t think it’s anywhere remotely close to that nor will it be in my lifetime but if people want to go down the path of “the machines are taking our jobs” then at some point “you’d” have to have the conversation of well what jobs are left that can’t be automated.

aiir
02-07-2018, 04:47 AM
Not at all but basically outsourcing of a different form. Believe me I’d rather not see that but if you take this whole automation/driverless machines to the extreme end of it where taxi drivers are not needed sailors are not needed, train engineers are not needed, pilots, cashiers assembly workers and so on at some point you’d have to look around and say well what jobs/industries are there left. I don’t think it’s anywhere remotely close to that nor will it be in my lifetime but if people want to go down the path of “the machines are taking our jobs” then at some point “you’d” have to have the conversation of well what jobs are left that can’t be automated.

This is a whole different conversation but I suspect that we will become a very hyper-consumer focused society, preoccupied with the superficial, more so than we are today. Virtual reality and simulation world building will evolve to a point where people are going to be able to escape to other worlds of sorts. Social media and the like will continue to expand...basically, most people are going to be useless and if there is no basic income, which I think there will be, most people will make their money hustling like they always have. It's just that the hustle will be different, and will most likely pertain to needs in industries that will evolve out of new things, most will probably very superficial.

On the other end of the spectrum, there will be people with actual jobs and professions, continuing to move the world forward, but as a result of automation, these people will be fewer and highly selected, by their own efforts or the economics of the time. They will do so for the love of whatever they are pursuing since the option to vegetate will always be there.

This can go on indefinitely, or until some meteor hits the earth again and we go back to square one.

Machines, automation, and AI really are game changers with consequences that we have never seen, nor can quite predict. Human populations around the world would also begin to drastically dwindle because up to now the major push for offsprings has been to assist with manual labor, and in some westerns countries, we are already seeing that reverse, with people having fewer children.

I believe that people need a purpose and something to do, I also believe that most people are not intelligent enough to find a purpose. Basic income will only go so far with these people before they become bored and dangerous to society and to themselves. They'll need an escape, drugs or some sort of virtual world where they'll be able to find some purpose... anyway, I'm just throwing darts at a wall, I suppose no one really knows what the future holds.

BlazingSaddles
02-07-2018, 10:27 AM
It is a different discussion but by the time aircraft ever go completely pilotless automobiles and trains would probably have been there already and possibly ships as well. Once/if that happens you’d also have to look at what job opportunities replace those positions and at what income range because then it also becomes a tax revenue issue for the governments and what effect it would have on the economy. It’s all hypothetical what if’s at the moment and I don’t foresee any issues for anyone 30 and above worrying about their careers due to pilotless aircraft but if AI and machines that could replace human ever does become a reality there’s a lot of jobs that could be replaced by it.

Bigapplepilot
02-07-2018, 10:44 AM
With technology increasing at an ever increasing rate, I would say most if not all jobs are subject to change/obsolescence. What can the human brain learn and store that can’t fall to Algorithms and artificial intelligence? In 2030? 2040? 2050? Having a career is a very recent blip on the human experience. Even physicians, financial analysts, accountants, etc etc. Even those that can’t traditionally be automated, may not be necessary with the amount of data and instance collaboration the internet and future technologies provides. Heck, even WIRED magazine has a cover ‘The End of Code.’

https://www.youtube.com/watch?v=7Pq-S557XQU

tomgoodman
02-07-2018, 11:30 AM
Frank Herbert (Dune) foresaw one possible outcome: a human vs. machine war he called the Butlerian Jihad. :(

BlazingSaddles
02-07-2018, 12:04 PM
Frank Herbert (Dune) foresaw one possible outcome: a human vs. machine war he called the Butlerian Jihad. :(

I thought that was Terminator

tomgoodman
02-07-2018, 12:40 PM
I thought that was Terminator

That too, but Dune was 19 years earlier. The human/machine conflict theme goes back to Asimov’s I, Robot, and even before that.

whalesurfer
02-07-2018, 03:22 PM
...I don’t think it’s anywhere remotely close to that nor will it be in my lifetime but if people want to go down the path of “the machines are taking our jobs” then at some point “you’d” have to have the conversation of well what jobs are left that can’t be automated.

Blazing - I disagree. This is nothing new, humanity has kept evolving and, as always, we’ll adapt to changes. No basic income or other nonsensical leftist, zuckerberg-tainted wetdream is necessary.

To go back to the original subject, my prediction:
~15 years from now IROs at some (not all but some) airlines are ground based. So a third, ground-based pilot is monitoring along with one of the cockpit-based pilots while one of them is in the bunk. ~10 years later the FO position becomes ground-based too. Not sure when and if it’ll ever go totally “pilot-less” but in all likelihood one day it’ll happen.
Who knows how it’ll all work out, BUT there will be other jobs and people will adapt.

whalesurfer
02-07-2018, 03:27 PM
...Once/if that happens you’d also have to look at what job opportunities replace those positions and at what income range because then it also becomes a tax revenue issue for the governments and what effect it would have on the economy...

Only because of the sick mindset of our government which taxes work instead of consumption.

scottm
02-08-2018, 04:31 AM
I work in industrial automation, building and selling robots of all shapes and flavors. We build the very newest and latest technology there is in automation, and it is changing so fast now I can't keep up, it is a blur of new things doing new things. Jobs we couldn't possibly automate a year ago we are automating, perfectly. Machine vision and sensing is the area that is advancing the fastest, and that is what is making a robot pilot rapidly more likely.

DARPA has spent tens of millions having aerospace and automation companies develop robots for older cockpits, in their ALIAS program. These robots visually watch the instruments, all of them, all the time. If the flap display starts to show a flap asymmetry, it will be noticed and dealt with immediately, without missing a level off or turn. Flat panel or round "steam" dials, it doesn't matter, the robot vision systems can watch and interpret them with perfection and consistency. They can read instructions off CPDLC displays, and even type out responses with their robot grippers. They don't need a connection to the airplane other than power, or to a pilot in a trailer in the desert. They can't be hacked. They can be sent instructions by the captain or ATC, and they can be set up to respond to encrypted instructions from pilots on the ground.

There are stunning videos on YouTube of these robots flying, they are very good. But those robots are obsolete, improvements are happening quickly. These ALIAS robots used to be pretty bad, lots of hand-made parts prone to fail and expensive. The newer ones are mostly off-the-shelf industrial robots, extremely reliable and precise, and relatively cheap. And they can be purchased in huge numbers rapidly, when the industry starts using them.

You guys have no idea how ready these robots are. They do a lot of things better than a human pilot possibly can. And they are improving rapidly. They are getting more powerful vision systems that can watch for ground and air traffic, weather, terrain. They can use that to navigate visually if needed, looking through clouds in spectrums we can't see in, setting up a glidepath visually by looking at the runway.

This is all waiting for the right moment now, it is ready. That right moment will be when the aviation industry convinces Congress and the FAA to approve it. Congress is quick to approve things that the economy needs and voters/contributors want. This pilot shortage is going to be huge and rapid, I predict Congress will make the necessary changes within three years, and robots in cargo right seats will be soon after. We won't need them in passenger airlines for a while after if that puts enough cargo pilots on the streets to keep pilot costs down.

CaptainHvac
02-08-2018, 06:24 AM
I work in industrial automation, building and selling robots of all shapes and flavors. We build the very newest and latest technology there is in automation, and it is changing so fast now I can't keep up, it is a blur of new things doing new things. Jobs we couldn't possibly automate a year ago we are automating, perfectly. Machine vision and sensing is the area that is advancing the fastest, and that is what is making a robot pilot rapidly more likely.

DARPA has spent tens of millions having aerospace and automation companies develop robots for older cockpits, in their ALIAS program. These robots visually watch the instruments, all of them, all the time. If the flap display starts to show a flap asymmetry, it will be noticed and dealt with immediately, without missing a level off or turn. Flat panel or round "steam" dials, it doesn't matter, the robot vision systems can watch and interpret them with perfection and consistency. They can read instructions off CPDLC displays, and even type out responses with their robot grippers. They don't need a connection to the airplane other than power, or to a pilot in a trailer in the desert. They can't be hacked. They can be sent instructions by the captain or ATC, and they can be set up to respond to encrypted instructions from pilots on the ground.

There are stunning videos on YouTube of these robots flying, they are very good. But those robots are obsolete, improvements are happening quickly. These ALIAS robots used to be pretty bad, lots of hand-made parts prone to fail and expensive. The newer ones are mostly off-the-shelf industrial robots, extremely reliable and precise, and relatively cheap. And they can be purchased in huge numbers rapidly, when the industry starts using them.

You guys have no idea how ready these robots are. They do a lot of things better than a human pilot possibly can. And they are improving rapidly. They are getting more powerful vision systems that can watch for ground and air traffic, weather, terrain. They can use that to navigate visually if needed, looking through clouds in spectrums we can't see in, setting up a glidepath visually by looking at the runway.

This is all waiting for the right moment now, it is ready. That right moment will be when the aviation industry convinces Congress and the FAA to approve it. Congress is quick to approve things that the economy needs and voters/contributors want. This pilot shortage is going to be huge and rapid, I predict Congress will make the necessary changes within three years, and robots in cargo right seats will be soon after. We won't need them in passenger airlines for a while after if that puts enough cargo pilots on the streets to keep pilot costs down.

After reading more into the ALIAS program and understanding the exponential nature of technological growth, no way we make it 20 years as cargo pilots like I've been thinking. The leap ALIAS has made in the past 2 years is unbelievable. Just imagine 10 more years of exponential advancement...we're toast!

ducgsxr
02-08-2018, 07:12 AM
After reading more into the ALIAS program and understanding the exponential nature of technological growth, no way we make it 20 years as cargo pilots like I've been thinking. The leap ALIAS has made in the past 2 years is unbelievable. Just imagine 10 more years of exponential advancement...we're toast!

I disagree. I may have a somewhat rare perspective on this in that I came from the ISR aviation world initially, and also flew unmanned aircraft in the Military. I then went on to IARPA where I worked on unmanned programs. I was lucky to get back in the cockpit, and go to law school. Anyway, with that being said... I am of the opinion that our children may face the threat of pilots being replaced in the 121 world. We will not, for liability reasons above all others.

brownie
02-08-2018, 08:33 AM
We won't need them in passenger airlines for a while after if that puts enough cargo pilots on the streets to keep pilot costs down.


Hahahahahahahahahahahahahahahahaha....There's always a future as a,comedian.

scottm
02-08-2018, 09:23 AM
I disagree. I may have a somewhat rare perspective on this in that I came from the ISR aviation world initially, and also flew unmanned aircraft in the Military. I then went on to IARPA where I worked on unmanned programs. I was lucky to get back in the cockpit, and go to law school. Anyway, with that being said... I am of the opinion that our children may face the threat of pilots being replaced in the 121 world. We will not, for liability reasons above all others.

You flew drones. Unmanned aircraft. That isn't what ALIAS is about. ALIAS keeps at least one live pilot, as another level of protection and for liability reasons. ALIAS and automation is advancing rapidly in capability, most people have no idea how capable robot systems have gotten in just the last year, even the past few months. Unless you are working in the industry, you have no idea. I work in the industry, and I'm blown away by advances, constantly. People bring in new inventions, vastly improved versions of what we have been using, and even my automation engineers are shocked at what these new products are capable of.

Pilots almost universally think they know what automation can and can't do in an airplane. Based on what? The skills and knowledge to fly airplanes? Or primitive drones?

The only people who have any incentive to protect the careers of pilots, are pilots. Pretty much everyone else will benefit from your pay going down or your hours going up, or you getting displaced by automation. If you stick your heads in the sand, nobody will be watching or resisting this change. If you are a senior captain, I guess no worries. You will probably make it to retirement without much loss.

BrownDoubles
02-08-2018, 09:35 AM
You flew drones. Unmanned aircraft. That isn't what ALIAS is about. ALIAS keeps at least one live pilot, as another level of protection and for liability reasons. ALIAS and automation is advancing rapidly in capability, most people have no idea how capable robot systems have gotten in just the last year, even the past few months. Unless you are working in the industry, you have no idea. I work in the industry, and I'm blown away by advances, constantly. People bring in new inventions, vastly improved versions of what we have been using, and even my automation engineers are shocked at what these new products are capable of.

Pilots almost universally think they know what automation can and can't do in an airplane. Based on what? The skills and knowledge to fly airplanes? Or primitive drones?

The only people who have any incentive to protect the careers of pilots, are pilots. Pretty much everyone else will benefit from your pay going down or your hours going up, or you getting displaced by automation. If you stick your heads in the sand, nobody will be watching or resisting this change. If you are a senior captain, I guess no worries. You will probably make it to retirement without much loss.

I think we will all agree that the limitation isn't really the technology but what the public allows. Public perception in how safe the automation is has a lot more to do with how other automation projects progress. Until cars, trains and buses make significant moves I can't see large aircraft going that way. Only time will tell... keep this thread going for the next 20 years.

b2pilot186
02-08-2018, 12:17 PM
They can't be hacked.

:rolleyes:

BlazingSaddles
02-08-2018, 02:26 PM
That’s one thing that is interesting about the whole robot/automation/driverless cars, ships, trains, planes. That technology will put so many people out of work if it ever gets developed to that stage. Then it will be interesting to see how it progresses because business may want it because it saves them money long term but the people losing the jobs will be pushing back as well. Personally I hope it never sees development to that phase, be it 10 years or 100, either through inability or worst case laws being passed that would prohibit it. Too many jobs would be at stake.

tomgoodman
02-08-2018, 03:36 PM
Never a horse that couldn’t be rode
Never a rider that couldn’t be throwed
Never a code that couldn’t be cracked
Never a link that couldn’t be hacked :p

scottm
02-08-2018, 05:40 PM
:rolleyes:

CPDLC could be hacked, and it could read and follow a clearance the same as I would. But hacking in and telling it to change course/altitude/speed would not really be possible without some data connection to the outside world. This robot really would not need such a connection, as long as there is a human pilot directing it in the cockpit, which is what this robot is developed for.

TiredSoul
02-09-2018, 12:08 AM
Let’s make sure we put the robots on the scab list so we can deny them a jumpseat.

FTFFv2
02-09-2018, 03:19 AM
Scott,

Start thinking like a businessman: if I have to pay a pilot anyway why replace him with a robot?

CaptainHvac
02-09-2018, 03:55 AM
Scott,

Start thinking like a businessman: if I have to pay a pilot anyway why replace him with a robot?

Exactly! The amount of leverage a "businessman" would instantly have over a pilot group when they threaten to replace one pilot with a robot is imense! The remaining pilot wouldnt have much to stand on if its bascially a test program to remove them completely in the future. Gotta start somewhere...

Some of this isnt about robots or exponential growth of technology, its about a management team suddenly having the largest lever bar in the history of pilot/management relations. When our unions dont think this can happen we are already at a disadvantage.

scottm
02-09-2018, 04:05 AM
Scott,

Start thinking like a businessman: if I have to pay a pilot anyway why replace him with a robot?

Really? You're a pilot, not stupid by any means, but you don't go through all the nuances of the cost of workers and of automation very often. I work in business, selling robots to some of the biggest companies, and small businesses. The financial argument for replacing even low-paid workers with robots is getting harder and harder to resist. People come asking for very expensive automation systems to replace fairly low-paid workers. This past year we built millions of $ worth of automation for a German company, that build air conditioning condensers for every brand car from Fiat to Tesla, in Mexico. China is going crazy replacing their workers with automation, it is a national policy there. In the U.S., it is estimated half the jobs could be done cheaper/better by current automation technology.

When the train crashed in Tacoma last month, there was an immediate cry of why were humans trusted instead of automation? People trust automation now. Insurance companies would rather have more automation and less pilots in cockpits, their data says it would be safer/more profitable.

Commercial pilots almost universally insist this will not happen, or not happen in their lifetime, or not happen during their career. But they have no data or experience to base that on, just emotion. I try to tell pilots: this is coming, be ready. When contract negotiations come: think about this possibility, and watch for things the company wants in the contract that you would wish weren't there if they start automating the FO seat.

This could become a game of Musical Chairs. If you can't hold a captain seat, bummer. I worry about young people starting out, they are looking at a 40 to 45 year career.

BoilerUP
02-09-2018, 04:11 AM
You work in automation, right? Not aviation?

And while you see the rapid advances made in automation technology, you are naive to the, well, not-so-rapid advances that occur in commercial aviation...especially with regards to certification and liability?

Just because the technology might exist in a DARPA-financed test setting does not mean it is close to mature enough to be inserted into this industry; not worrying about robots taking our jobs isn't naively putting our heads in the sand it is based on DECADES of observation watching how technology has (and has not) changed this job. You might know automation, but have no data or experience with regards to Parts 25 and 121 upon which to make your grand claims.

Just look at how long it took for the FAA to approve electronic flight bags for 121 operations, let alone a safety-enhancing feature like own-ship position...

I'll absolutely take your three year bet on Congress approving robot copilots - Youtube videos aside, robots that build widgets aren't exactly equivalent to operating in a three-dimensional dynamic environment.

The sky ain't falling...

dustrpilot
02-09-2018, 04:23 AM
I get that robots are getting better, but worse case, engine failure of a single engine or dual engine failure of a twin, can a robot look out side and find a suitable landing area?


Sent from my iPhone using Tapatalk

scottm
02-09-2018, 05:08 AM
You work in automation, right? Not aviation?

My dad retired from AA, my brother is a captain there. I flew AFRES tankers 11 years, was a high-time flyer there, left with more tanker time than anyone in my unit. I flew some charter and a lot of Wings of Mercy, my dad was buds with the founder Pete VandenBosch.

While an engineer and factory manager and pilot, I was also tapped to be the Chairman of Labor Relations at the Fortune 500 company where I worked. Busy boy. So I spent some time in corporate management and labor relations. This was a great company to work for, mostly automotive, so I had the pleasure of fighting the UAW and Teamsters and other unions. Yep, I was a union buster, and I kept the unions out of our factories for many years. Unions suck, but when management sucks worse, unions are necessary.

Currently I'm 787/I/ORD/FO/AA. I was kicked off my Shanghai trip this week for training, so I've been putting in ten hour days at the automation shop. Taking today off to work on my boat in winter storage, engines and transmissions getting some love today down in the engine room. I'm a workaholic and a tech geek, love automation and machinery and business, and love flying. Hate the airlines, but love the flying. And the money, gobs of money, can't hate that.

So yeah, I know a bit about aviation. And labor, and management, and automation, and business. My opinions are still opinions, maybe slightly more informed than average.

CactusCrew
02-09-2018, 05:33 AM
Really? You're a pilot, not stupid by any means, but you don't go through all the nuances of the cost of workers and of automation very often. I work in business, selling robots to some of the biggest companies, and small businesses. The financial argument for replacing even low-paid workers with robots is getting harder and harder to resist. People come asking for very expensive automation systems to replace fairly low-paid workers.

If that's the case, we'll see robot flight attendants on airlines first :D

BoilerUP
02-09-2018, 05:40 AM
That's a rather broad and diverse resume.

Which makes it all the more interesting that you, as a long-time professional pilot with probably a couple decades of longevity at AA, are so bullish about robot copilots being certified to replace Part 25 aircraft required crewmembers in Part 121 operations by the end of 2021.

I suppose we'll find out soon enough, eh?

scottm
02-09-2018, 05:45 AM
If that's the case, we'll see robot flight attendants on airlines first :D

Lol......
.

Bigapplepilot
02-09-2018, 05:55 AM
Really? You're a pilot, not stupid by any means, but you don't go through all the nuances of the cost of workers and of automation very often. I work in business, selling robots to some of the biggest companies, and small businesses. The financial argument for replacing even low-paid workers with robots is getting harder and harder to resist. People come asking for very expensive automation systems to replace fairly low-paid workers. This past year we built millions of $ worth of automation for a German company, that build air conditioning condensers for every brand car from Fiat to Tesla, in Mexico. China is going crazy replacing their workers with automation, it is a national policy there. In the U.S., it is estimated half the jobs could be done cheaper/better by current automation technology.

When the train crashed in Tacoma last month, there was an immediate cry of why were humans trusted instead of automation? People trust automation now. Insurance companies would rather have more automation and less pilots in cockpits, their data says it would be safer/more profitable.

Commercial pilots almost universally insist this will not happen, or not happen in their lifetime, or not happen during their career. But they have no data or experience to base that on, just emotion. I try to tell pilots: this is coming, be ready. When contract negotiations come: think about this possibility, and watch for things the company wants in the contract that you would wish weren't there if they start automating the FO seat.

This could become a game of Musical Chairs. If you can't hold a captain seat, bummer. I worry about young people starting out, they are looking at a 40 to 45 year career.

What data exactly are they using? Not one person has been killed on a US Air Carrier since 2009. A whole revamp of the system including infrastructure and regulations contains data that shows even safer statistics than the astronomical safety record we already have?

And your ‘worried’ about pilots 45 years from now? The Director of Engineering at Google has stated The Technological Singularity is coming in 2046. Even if the ‘Singularity ‘ is a word people scoff at, the exponential progress in technology will affect anything the human brain can do. Even doctors and financial analysts will be affected.

whalesurfer
02-09-2018, 06:51 AM
...Not one person has been killed on a US Air Carrier since 2009...

Hmm.. :(
I understand, and agree, with the point you’re trying to make BUT the statement above is not true.
I know of 4 fantatic “persons who were killed on a US Air Carrier since 2009”. Of course, according to the faa crew members don’t count. They’re merely “insignificant loss of life”. :mad:

...now back to your regular programming ..

scottm
02-09-2018, 07:11 AM
Even doctors and financial analysts will be affected.

There is a large factory north of me that has gone heavily automation. I go there occasionally. The large parking lots are mostly empty, just a few cars around the entrances. Trucks are lined up at both ends of the factory dropping off raw materials, and picking up finished goods.

The neighborhood and town around the factory used to be a vibrant and prosperous area, now is third-world. Not only did the factory workers and white-collar office workers at the plant and office building lose their jobs, the community lost a huge amount of jobs the factory and workers there supported. Doctors, lawyers, pastors, mechanics, garbage men, municipal workers, police, fire, hairdressers, they all lost their jobs when the factory automated. Strip malls and churches are boarded up.

This is just one factory, and this is happening all over the world. And not just factories. Dentists use computers to look things up quickly, so fewer dentists can handle more patients. Roofer and framers have adopted nail guns, so there are far fewer roofers and framers needed to build houses. Plumbers use plastic pipe to plumb houses, and one plumber can plumb a new house in a day. Most products have been re-designed to make them easier to produce with automation, our world is changing to accommodate robots. I work with manufacturers to do this, and it scares the bejeezus out of me sometimes. Feels like I'm living in a sci-fi scary movie.

BlazingSaddles
02-09-2018, 07:23 AM
That’s what makes me wonder what happens when so many jobs are automated. What do people do for work and for money?

CactusCrew
02-09-2018, 07:29 AM
That’s what makes me wonder what happens when so many jobs are automated. What do people do for work and for money?

Exactly, We can't all be pimps and ho's :D:D

Bigapplepilot
02-09-2018, 08:05 AM
Hmm.. :(
I understand, and agree, with the point you’re trying to make BUT the statement above is not true.
I know of 4 fantatic “persons who were killed on a US Air Carrier since 2009”. Of course, according to the faa crew members don’t count. They’re merely “insignificant loss of life”. :mad:

...now back to your regular programming ..

I’m sorry...pardon my ignorance... which incident was this?

Bigapplepilot
02-09-2018, 08:10 AM
There is a large factory north of me that has gone heavily automation. I go there occasionally. The large parking lots are mostly empty, just a few cars around the entrances. Trucks are lined up at both ends of the factory dropping off raw materials, and picking up finished goods.

The neighborhood and town around the factory used to be a vibrant and prosperous area, now is third-world. Not only did the factory workers and white-collar office workers at the plant and office building lose their jobs, the community lost a huge amount of jobs the factory and workers there supported. Doctors, lawyers, pastors, mechanics, garbage men, municipal workers, police, fire, hairdressers, they all lost their jobs when the factory automated. Strip malls and churches are boarded up.

This is just one factory, and this is happening all over the world. And not just factories. Dentists use computers to look things up quickly, so fewer dentists can handle more patients. Roofer and framers have adopted nail guns, so there are far fewer roofers and framers needed to build houses. Plumbers use plastic pipe to plumb houses, and one plumber can plumb a new house in a day. Most products have been re-designed to make them easier to produce with automation, our world is changing to accommodate robots. I work with manufacturers to do this, and it scares the bejeezus out of me sometimes. Feels like I'm living in a sci-fi scary movie.

Exactly my point. Good post! Even jobs that can’t be automated, may just not be necessary anymore with the instant access and correlation of data and info. Look at police. Nanobots in our bloodstream connected to the internet(don’t know if this is possible but)? Then your whereabouts are known all the time. Less traditional police needed. Driverless cars? No more speeding...then no more highway patrol. Much less accidents? ..EMS budgets slashed. Insurance slashed. Etc etc.

b2pilot186
02-09-2018, 08:32 AM
CPDLC could be hacked, and it could read and follow a clearance the same as I would. But hacking in and telling it to change course/altitude/speed would not really be possible without some data connection to the outside world. This robot really would not need such a connection, as long as there is a human pilot directing it in the cockpit, which is what this robot is developed for.

...and when the single point of failure, your human pilot, dies or is incapacitated and someone from the outside world needs Mr. Roboto to descend or turn to avoid traffic all the passengers will die screaming...even if it can avoid traffic itself it'll still be in everyone else's way while ATC scrambles to cope with an aircraft that won't go where it's told to go...especially in close to the airport with heavy traffic. So your automaton will need to be able to accept outside (and hackable) communication for safety...which then leads to some Russian teen hacker sending the passengers (or boxes) in low altitude circles over downtown Manhattan or the middle of the Atlantic until it runs out of gas and crashes.

Automating an assembly line is one thing...automating the world ATC system is a different animal.

Good luck though with your plans for world domination.

;)

scottm
02-09-2018, 08:58 AM
There are a lot of ways for Mr. Roboto to communicate with the outside world, that are no more hackable than our current communications. Your $100 phone can understand English pretty well, you don't think Mr. Roboto can hear and respond to "UPS666, turn right heading 210"? The ability to respond to voice commands from the captain is one of the requirements of the ALIAS program.

Our TCAS can probably be hacked by someone clever, and we are required to mechanically trust and respond to TCAS like machines. Any worries about hacked TCAS guiding two planes into each other? No, we trust it completely, even though it might fail or be hacked. I've had to respond to TCAS commands for real, was glad it was there. We accept these automations because they are better.

b2pilot186
02-09-2018, 09:02 AM
There are a lot of ways for Mr. Roboto to communicate with the outside world, that are no more hackable than our current communications. Your $100 phone can understand English pretty well, you don't think Mr. Roboto can hear and respond to "UPS666, turn right heading 210"? The ability to respond to voice commands from the captain is one of the requirements of the ALIAS program.

Our TCAS can probably be hacked by someone clever, and we are required to mechanically trust and respond to TCAS like machines. Any worries about hacked TCAS guiding two planes into each other? No, we trust it completely, even though it might fail or be hacked. I've had to respond to TCAS commands for real, was glad it was there. We accept these automations because they are better.

So the terrorist gets a portable VHF transceiver and tells Mr. Roboto to head out over the Atlantic...LOL.

Keep trying robot boy. ;)

scottm
02-09-2018, 09:14 AM
So the terrorist gets a portable VHF transceiver and tells Mr. Roboto to head out over the Atlantic...LOL.

Keep trying robot boy. ;)

What does b2pilot186 do when ATC directs him to turn east over the Atlantic? Respond and turn. And if it was a kid with a portable radio, is b2pilot186 now doomed to a watery death? What if it was a CPDLC clearance, would b2pilot186 acknowledge and head out over the Atlantic and die then? Probably not. ATC would hear the readback, or notice the turn eventually, and guide him back to safety. When you accept the new clearance and see "INSUFFICIENT FUEL", you will query the controller.

We can play "what if" forever. Machines are capable, there will need to be some extra checks in the system, but it could be done today if laws and contracts allowed. But it won't happen today, it will happen years from now, and these robots will be dramatically better by then.

CactusCrew
02-09-2018, 09:21 AM
I’m sorry...pardon my ignorance... which incident was this?

Two accidents, no survivors ...

UPS #6 in DXB

UPS #1354 in BHM

:(

Crew perished, therefore "no significant loss of life"

b2pilot186
02-09-2018, 09:22 AM
What does b2pilot186 do when ATC directs him to turn east over the Atlantic? Respond and turn. And if it was a kid with a portable radio, is b2pilot186 now doomed to a watery death? What if it was a CPDLC clearance, would b2pilot186 acknowledge and head out over the Atlantic and die then? Probably not. ATC would hear the readback, or notice the turn eventually, and guide him back to safety. When you accept the new clearance and see "INSUFFICIENT FUEL", you will query the controller.

Because I am human, I can fix stupid. The level of AI required to fix stupid or malicious instructions doesn't exist. You need a critical thinking, decision-making automaton to replace the level of complexity required to fly in a heavily-trafficked ATC environment. I've only spent a few minutes playing devil's advocate with you and you're scrambling to come up with ways to fly the aircraft when the human element is removed or incapacitated in the cockpit. I thought you said these things were on the shelf ready to be deployed?! Obviously not...You automate assembly line crap...you don't work for DARPA...you're just pulling stuff out of your backside champ.

BTW, you got a robot doing your real job? You spend an inordinate amount of time on APC spouting nonsense. I'd get back there and check on that thing if I were you.

:rolleyes:

Bigapplepilot
02-09-2018, 09:50 AM
Also keep in mind a human can register the smell of smoke possibly before the gauges tell you. Also lowering the landing gear manually in case of hydraulic failure, avoiding that buildup that’s not showing on the radar. While we live in times of exponential change, I think there will be humans in 121 cockpits for a long time.

Airbum
02-09-2018, 10:40 AM
UPS Flight 6 September 3 2010

UPS Flight 1354. August 14 2013

tomgoodman
02-09-2018, 10:47 AM
https://m.youtube.com/watch?v=ZDxBnYsjdKM

BlazingSaddles
02-09-2018, 11:05 AM
...and when the single point of failure, your human pilot, dies or is incapacitated and someone from the outside world needs Mr. Roboto to descend or turn to avoid traffic all the passengers will die screaming...even if it can avoid traffic itself it'll still be in everyone else's way while ATC scrambles to cope with an aircraft that won't go where it's told to go...especially in close to the airport with heavy traffic. So your automaton will need to be able to accept outside (and hackable) communication for safety...which then leads to some Russian teen hacker sending the passengers (or boxes) in low altitude circles over downtown Manhattan or the middle of the Atlantic until it runs out of gas and crashes.

Automating an assembly line is one thing...automating the world ATC system is a different animal.

Good luck though with your plans for world domination.
;)

Nice Pinky and the Brain reference.

Disco Stu
02-09-2018, 11:06 AM
There are a lot of ways for Mr. Roboto to communicate with the outside world, that are no more hackable than our current communications. Your $100 phone can understand English pretty well, you don't think Mr. Roboto can hear and respond to "UPS666, turn right heading 210"? The ability to respond to voice commands from the captain is one of the requirements of the ALIAS program.

Our TCAS can probably be hacked by someone clever, and we are required to mechanically trust and respond to TCAS like machines. Any worries about hacked TCAS guiding two planes into each other? No, we trust it completely, even though it might fail or be hacked. I've had to respond to TCAS commands for real, was glad it was there. We accept these automations because they are better.

Actually, we are only supposed to follow TCAS inputs unless in the opinion of the PILOT, doing so would pose a greater risk. Human reaction to an inhuman input.

BoilerUP
02-09-2018, 12:02 PM
https://78.media.tumblr.com/70b8125688ba9065ac1f11de08b10fb5/tumblr_o4wl41XO3S1tpri36o1_400.gif

Bigapplepilot
02-09-2018, 05:35 PM
Two accidents, no survivors ...

UPS #6 in DXB

UPS #1354 in BHM

:(

Crew perished, therefore "no significant loss of life"

Thanks. I did know about those and should have said passengers.

TiredSoul
02-10-2018, 01:58 AM
I get that robots are getting better, but worse case, engine failure of a single engine or dual engine failure of a twin, can a robot look out side and find a suitable landing area?


Sent from my iPhone using Tapatalk

GPD database will show built up areas.
Obviously anything can be added like coordinates of hospitals and schools and higher high profile soft targets to avoid.

FTFFv2
02-10-2018, 04:01 AM
That's a rather broad and diverse resume.

Which makes it all the more interesting that you, as a long-time professional pilot with probably a couple decades of longevity at AA, are so bullish about robot copilots being certified to replace Part 25 aircraft required crewmembers in Part 121 operations by the end of 2021.

I suppose we'll find out soon enough, eh?

Very interesting. $100 says this guy’s really a sour NURP behind the curtain.

dustrpilot
02-10-2018, 04:14 AM
GPD database will show built up areas.

Obviously anything can be added like coordinates of hospitals and schools and higher high profile soft targets to avoid.



I understand that, but wouldn’t that take a huge amount of time and energy to input correctly the first time, and then keep updated? I’m sure it could be done, but I wonder the dollar value of “crash here” versus “land there” in an emergency such as U S airways in the Hudson.


Sent from my iPhone using Tapatalk

TiredSoul
02-10-2018, 05:37 AM
I’m just gonna leave this here

https://www.theverge.com/2016/1/13/10759424/google-self-driving-car-accidents-driver-disengagements

scottm
02-10-2018, 12:16 PM
Every one of these discussions devolves into a bunch of "what if" scenarios, forgetting there is still one or more human pilots at the controls. There are single pilot airplanes flying all over the world right now. They have a higher accident rate, but they don't have this level of automation backing up the single pilot.

I am not talking about pilotless airplanes, can't really compare to self-driving cars or military drones.

Bombardier early in the development of the new CSeries, designed it to take advantage of the single-pilot airliner rules they thought would be in place by now. That cost them some development time and money, one of the reasons they will probably never recover their investment with CSeries sales. They are very smart people, know more about this industry than probably all of us. Perhaps their timing was off by a few years, or maybe they don't know as much as a bunch of pilots. A lot of companies are quietly putting a lot of money toward this eventuality. Maybe the airlines and air cargo, they aren't saying.

BoilerUP
02-10-2018, 12:35 PM
There are single pilot airplanes flying all over the world right now.

Yes, and the jets are all certified under Part 23 or Part 23 Commuter category, along with a very small handful of 500-series Citations with Part 25 Single Pilot Waivers.

Nothing bigger than a Phenom 300, CJ4 or Encore+ has ever been certified single pilot.

Also, the same Bombardier you say developed the C-Series with single-pilot ops in mind does not currently produce any single-pilot aircraft and has not once acknowledged Global 7000/8000 development to have single pilot operations in mind. I find that interesting in that both the FAA and EASA will almost certainly permit single pilot operation in transport category aircraft for NON-air carriers *well* before permitted for air carriers.

"The end is nigh for cargo pilots"...yet the Air Force isn't flying transports and tankers single/remote-piloted and bizjets more advanced than pretty much every airliner currently produced or under development also aren't certified for SP ops.

When the G600 gets approved for single-pilot ops, the canary in the coal mine will miss a few notes of its song...and when KC46As and C17s start operating into hostile AOs with an aircraft commander onboard and somebody at Nellis or Creech backing them up remotely, the canary will cough.

...but even then, it'll still be singing...

b2pilot186
02-10-2018, 01:38 PM
Every one of these discussions devolves into a bunch of "what if" scenarios, forgetting there is still one or more human pilots at the controls. There are single pilot airplanes flying all over the world right now. They have a higher accident rate, but they don't have this level of automation backing up the single pilot.

I am not talking about pilotless airplanes, can't really compare to self-driving cars or military drones.


There is really only one "what if" scenario...and that is "What happens when the human is removed from the equation due to death or incapicatation?"

The answer is DISASTER. Just keep the assembly lines running champ...we'll pilot the aircraft.

;)

767pilot
02-11-2018, 05:11 AM
I’m sorry...pardon my ignorance... which incident was this?


UPS 6 and UPS in Birmingham

BlazingSaddles
02-12-2018, 04:10 AM
https://www.theguardian.com/world/2018/feb/09/boeing-raises-prospect-of-only-one-pilot-in-the-cockpit-of-planes

crazycoconut
02-14-2018, 11:21 AM
in case you have not noticed, SpaceX is already sending "drone" rockets to orbit and then landing them back at the launch site.
Ya, they have had some failures all new technology does.
But if you think drone airplanes are no coming soon, you have not been paying attention to what is going on.

The people behind the drone airplane ideas say it will start with cargo. Mainly because it will take awhile to convince the public to get on an airplane with no pilots.

There are several companies already testing small package delivery with drones. Once that is established, the next step will be to upsize. i would not be surprised to see in a few years General Atomics start selling a commercial version of their drones to UPS and FEDEX to start a point to point delivery service. It will start in remote places like Alaska.

it will be here sooner than you think

dustrpilot
02-14-2018, 12:52 PM
http://www.abilene-rc.com/news/off-into-the-wild-blue-yonder-without-a-manned-pilot/article_c49b6470-0da6-11e8-a0b1-53160b4f8651.html

Any ideas how long this might take to get certified?


Sent from my iPhone using Tapatalk

No Land 3
02-14-2018, 04:11 PM
I believe I will have a good career, my son however will be affected by it. Cargo will become unmanned in our life time. If in 50 years we went from the Wright flyer to the SR71... Computing power has no less of an amazing rate of increase. The limiting factor that keeps us from doing it now is all the manned airplanes sharing the same airspace.

Adlerdriver
02-14-2018, 04:59 PM
Mainly because it will take awhile to convince the public to get on an airplane with no pilots.
:rolleyes: Yah think?

This will never happen in the lifetime of anyone alive today.

Cargo? meh... maybe once FedEx gets their investment back on the 150+ brand new 2-pilot 777s and 767s they're buying right now. Oh... and the FAA figures out how to segregate any unmanned cargo flights from the ones with people inside and still get cargo to where people live and use it. All without the occasional drone freighter planting itself in downtown Chicago or Atlanta.

C130driver
02-15-2018, 12:14 AM
There is really only one "what if" scenario...and that is "What happens when the human is removed from the equation due to death or incapicatation?"

The answer is DISASTER. Just keep the assembly lines running champ...we'll pilot the aircraft.

;)

I don’t think he’s an actual pilot, and if he is..well god help AA.

121again
02-15-2018, 02:09 AM
I'm so tired of these threads. It's hard enough just to get them to upgrade their tired CRT displays to LCD screens. :rolleyes:

Can we move this to the "Engineers and Technicians" sub forum and let them argue about it?

SaltyDog
02-15-2018, 02:50 AM
in case you have not noticed, SpaceX is already sending "drone" rockets to orbit and then landing them back at the launch site.
Ya, they have had some failures all new technology does.
But if you think drone airplanes are no coming soon, you have not been paying attention to what is going on.

The people behind the drone airplane ideas say it will start with cargo. Mainly because it will take awhile to convince the public to get on an airplane with no pilots.

There are several companies already testing small package delivery with drones. Once that is established, the next step will be to upsize. i would not be surprised to see in a few years General Atomics start selling a commercial version of their drones to UPS and FEDEX to start a point to point delivery service. It will start in remote places like Alaska.

it will be here sooner than you think

Opinions from the "people behind the drone airplane" that we will start with cargo may be true, however, far larger universe of reality. These "people" are but one element of a far larger equation that must be solved.

Unbiased discussion. How soon do you think? I think several generations of humans away from a truly reliable UAS future world with airliners flying remotely. Even then, humans will be on board many aircraft systems in some manner of operation. Certainly we will see a mix of manned and unmanned. That reality is already present in 2018.

Stated in an earlier post, not really just a technology issue. They can already fly any size aircraft remotely. It is the rest of the story that is the timeline driver. Read up on NEXGEN for only one glimpse of the challenges faced in an airspace system upgrade.
Economics ( infrastructure cost share on equipment and ground handling facilities plus Legal exposure and insurance requirements), Safety, physical security & cyber security, Add worldwide coordination, government(s) bureaucracy and politics.

If NEXGEN is but one guide, this is a sloooow multi generational process.

742Dash
02-15-2018, 04:23 AM
in case you have not noticed, SpaceX is already sending "drone" rockets to orbit and then landing them back at the launch site.

Ah. Musk.

This Tesla was on "Autopilot" (https://o.aolcdn.com/images/dims3/GLOB/crop/595x335+0+96/resize/800x450!/format/jpg/quality/85/http://o.aolcdn.com/hss/storage/midas/579272027d5b38879bda2df6f81f3a7d/206058280/Tesla-crash.jpeg). The fire truck was stopped in the lane, responding to an accident.

And then you have the Model 3's intermittent windshield wipers that do not work at night, which is funnier than MGB/Lucas jokes.

For the record, the ability to recover the first stage was explored during the 60's by NASA for the Saturn series and rejected because of the payload penalty. It was first flown with real hardware by McDonnall Douglas with their DC-X in 1993.

The 797 is nearing launch, and not one word about single pilot operations, let alone autonomous ops. Not even a "provisions being made for future development" hedge. Nothing.

Tony Clifton
02-15-2018, 05:16 AM
Robots:

https://www.cnbc.com/2018/02/13/robot-skiers-compete-in-south-korea-near-olympics.html

b2pilot186
02-15-2018, 07:56 AM
in case you have not noticed, SpaceX is already sending "drone" rockets to orbit and then landing them back at the launch site.

When they set one down at JFK during peak arrival time without killing anyone, then I'll start noticing.

;)

Adlerdriver
02-15-2018, 08:03 AM
The 797 is nearing launch, and not one word about single pilot operations, let alone autonomous ops. Not even a "provisions being made for future development" hedge. Nothing. Exactly. Some of you guys seem to have a great deal of trouble differentiating between the two sides of this. The broad range of possibilities offered by current technology and realities that are economically viable and can be implemented within the existing or future industry infrastructure (Regs, ATC, airports, airspace, etc.)

Changes on the scale required to make even single pilot ops happen will be glacial at best.

Timberdux
02-15-2018, 05:49 PM
Robots:

https://www.cnbc.com/2018/02/13/robot-skiers-compete-in-south-korea-near-olympics.html


:D

Total gapers.

C130driver
02-16-2018, 12:26 AM
Exactly. Some of you guys seem to have a great deal of trouble differentiating between the two sides of this. The broad range of possibilities offered by current technology and realities that are economically viable and can be implemented within the existing or future industry infrastructure (Regs, ATC, airports, airspace, etc.)

Changes on the scale required to make even single pilot ops happen will be glacial at best.

True. Also, cargo flies to many international destinations. Bare in mind that they too would need immense infrastructure and regulatory upgrades to support unmanned commercial airliners.

Huck
02-16-2018, 04:35 AM
It can be done.

It can't be done cheaper.

We were told in 2010 that FDX and UPS were five years away from this, by a really smart ex-Air Force person. They're a little late.

iHateAMR
02-16-2018, 04:53 AM
How will a robot understand what Ankara or Amazonica is saying? Because we all know they will still talk thru a tin can for the better part of the next century. There’s no incentive to upgrade when a single American cargo jet flies thru their airspace a day with its fancy robots on board that can’t hear.

767pilot
02-16-2018, 06:02 AM
I'm not threatened by unmanned cockpits in any way, shape, or form. We've had lots of all female crews around here

Tweetdrvr
03-19-2018, 10:16 AM
https://www.cnbc.com/2018/03/19/uber-self-driving-car-fatality-halts-testing-in-all-cities-report-says.html

Two dimensional travel at groundspeed less than 2 miles per minute doesn't seem ready for prime time. How are we going to get to three dimensions and 7 miles per minute groundspeed?

Selfmade92
03-19-2018, 04:35 PM
No pedestrians in the air. 😁

rickair7777
03-19-2018, 04:39 PM
https://www.cnbc.com/2018/03/19/uber-self-driving-car-fatality-halts-testing-in-all-cities-report-says.html

Two dimensional travel at groundspeed less than 2 miles per minute doesn't seem ready for prime time. How are we going to get to three dimensions and 7 miles per minute groundspeed?

30-40K Americans die on the roads each year and nobody bats an eye.

A jaywalker gets killed by a robot and it's national news and all stop, Katy-Bar-the-Door. As I've been saying for years, prime-time is some ways off.

aviatorhi
03-20-2018, 06:50 AM
https://www.cnbc.com/2018/03/19/uber-self-driving-car-fatality-halts-testing-in-all-cities-report-says.html

Two dimensional travel at groundspeed less than 2 miles per minute doesn't seem ready for prime time. How are we going to get to three dimensions and 7 miles per minute groundspeed?

We don't have manned two dimensional travel figured out at 1 mpm but we do have manned three dimensional travel in the blind figured out at 200 feet and 2-3 mpm. Aviation is much more controlled than people let on.

I won't start getting worried until the manufacturers start putting designs on paper without pilots. I think I can ride out the rest of my 34 years safely since it won't be an overnight change anyway.

Frosty88
03-26-2018, 02:16 PM
FAA announces ads-b requirement 10 years ahead of time but we will have something as impactful as single pilot 121 ops in the next few years with no warning. riiiiiiiight...
technology does not equal policy.