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FTFFv2
02-10-2018, 04:24 AM
Robots aside, for now, Amazon’s announcement of their intention to fully enter the B2C shipping market could (does?) affect a pilot career at UPS/FedEx. Thought it would be good to have a discussion here for the hopefuls, new hires, and maybe even guys like me starting to think about a possible need to jump back to the pax side of the world.

So, Amazon: threat or hype?


BoilerUP
02-10-2018, 04:42 AM
Near term? All hype.

Long term? *Potential* threat to the duopoly, depending on how their logistics (specifically Prime Air) infrastructure does or does not get built out over the next half-decade or so.

I personally don’t “fear” Amazon or Bezos; some felt our world was ending when they formally announced Prime Air couple years ago and yet, our Amazon volume has only increased.

So much of Amazon and SWA hinges on technology (per their and analysts’ statements)...but there’s only so much technology does for you in “disrupting” logistics. Eventually you gotta source physical infrastructure.

Where I personally see the most potential “disruptive risk” to the duopoly is Amazon purchasing control of DHL North America and integrating/growing their existing network and infrastructure.

Risk to UPS flying jobs? Nope.

Ray Kinsella
02-10-2018, 08:05 AM
DHL tried it and lost billions.


Browntown
02-10-2018, 08:38 AM
UPS and Fedex should immediately cease all contact with Amazon, no deliveries to Amazon affiliates, no pickups at the sort centers, no Prime deliveries. Crazy that they're helping their (now) DIRECT competition build themselves up. Instead they should try and collapse their business model by refusing packages. Would cost them short term a little but preserve the duopoly. Imagine Spirit wants to enter a new market where they aren't, like SLC, would Delta, for a fee, carry Spirit passengers until Spirit had enough planes to do it themselves? No way. They should've done this when Prime Air was announced.

JackStraw
02-10-2018, 08:42 AM
UPS and Fedex should immediately cease all contact with Amazon, no deliveries to Amazon affiliates, no pickups at the sort centers, no Prime deliveries. Crazy that they're helping their (now) DIRECT competition build themselves up. Instead they should try and collapse their business model by refusing packages. Would cost them short term a little but preserve the duopoly. Imagine Spirit wants to enter a new market where they aren't, like SLC, would Delta, for a fee, carry Spirit passengers until Spirit had enough planes to do it themselves? No way. They should've done this when Prime Air was announced.

Fred Smith doesn’t view Amazon as a competitor. “Amazon is a retailer” and “Fedex is a transporter” according to him.

SilentLurker
02-10-2018, 08:58 AM
Fred Smith doesn’t view Amazon as a competitor. “Amazon is a retailer” and “Fedex is a transporter” according to him.



There was a recent Fox Business News video interview with Fred Smith. Google search it. Very enlightening.

Quote above is correct Fred Smith does not see Amazon as a threat, and put out a figure that without Amazon they transport millions of packages a day, and generate income from various sources, and FedEx business model is resilient without Amazon and is still growing.

The interview also touched on Unmanned Cargo flight research and development, improved distribution efficiencies potentials, facilities upgrades (increases CapItal Expenditures) thanks to new tax law, and international growth. Lots of money out there!

On a side note, UPS also just ordered like 14 Boeing 747 to keep the production alive a couple more years. Amazing really.

We are living in interesting times, a lot of growth and money out there. Companies are looking to spend on growth, acquisitions, and people.

Robots, 1 /single pilots crew, then unmanned automation are a couple years away in Fed Smiths life time (as he put it in the interview), 1 leap in technology/discovery & costs can shorten that time frame.

Fly safe, enjoy the growth, put yourself in position to take advantage of opportunities inside and outside of aviation, and earn enough to cushion yourself during any down-cycle.

zerozero
02-10-2018, 09:12 AM
Two words: "Service Failures".

Both UPS and FDX have struggled during recent Q4s with service failures. This was part of the motivation for Amazon to handle some of their own deliveries.

But if UPS and FDX, the undisputed leaders in overnight package delivery, have troubles with dedicated, in-house crews and aircraft just what sort of trouble is Amazon gonna have with their OUTSOURCED, disgruntled, whipsawed labor problems?

Amazon: ARE YOU READING THIS?

Get it together guys. Get it TF TOGETHER.

The extra competition in this market posed by Amazon is only gonna serve to make UPS and FDX leaner and meaner. Great for the customers actually as Amazon makes Brown and Purple stronger.

UPSFO4LIFE
02-10-2018, 09:38 AM
My take is that short term, not really a big deal. But I think UPS and FredEx should see this as a potentially bad long term problem. Maybe it's the wake-up call UPS needs to get their crap together and get back in the customer service game. Reminds me of Pan Am and Eastern thinking they were too big to fail, when in fact, no company is too big to fail. Despite making money hand over fist, Amazon is not a happy place to work, or contracting for. Go talk to anyone working at whole foods and see how they like their new owner. Go talk to the people working in their warehouses or delivering(sometimes even to the right house) their packages.

BlazingSaddles
02-10-2018, 10:31 AM
My wife and I were talking about it the other day. We decided that we were going to cancel our prime membership and stop shopping amazon altogether. We came to the conclusion that amazon is putting to many other businesses out of business and I’d rather shop local even if it cost me a little bit more.

Ray Kinsella
02-10-2018, 10:41 AM
UPS and Fedex should immediately cease all contact with Amazon, no deliveries to Amazon affiliates, no pickups at the sort centers, no Prime deliveries. Crazy that they're helping their (now) DIRECT competition build themselves up. Instead they should try and collapse their business model by refusing packages. Would cost them short term a little but preserve the duopoly. Imagine Spirit wants to enter a new market where they aren't, like SLC, would Delta, for a fee, carry Spirit passengers until Spirit had enough planes to do it themselves? No way. They should've done this when Prime Air was announced.

That’s against the law from what I’ve been told.

gatorhater
02-10-2018, 10:53 AM
That’s against the law from what I’ve been told.

Illegal? Maybe to cancel a contract, but not to refuse a new one. They don’t need stop servicing the amazon outlets, they just need to end preferred rates at the end of their current contracts and make the Amazon world pay full fare at the UPS Store, Kinkos or the Post Office like everyone else.

brownie
02-10-2018, 11:11 AM
My wife and I were talking about it the other day. We decided that we were going to cancel our prime membership and stop shopping amazon altogether. We came to the conclusion that amazon is putting to many other businesses out of business and I’d rather shop local even if it cost me a little bit more.

We did exactly the same . Gonna take advantage of it this year since we already paid but no more renewal. Gonna order pack of gum every week too;);)

Tumbl3weed
02-10-2018, 11:23 AM
You all can stop worrying Amazon will negatively harm UPS/FEDEX business or your careers. Until they stop messing around with ACMI carriers and start their own airline paying appropriate wages...services failures will continue and most definitely get worse.
The ACMI carriers have turned into a training ground for every other airline. It will continue this way for the next 5-10 years. At that point, most of pilots doing the training will have retired and the training turnstile will be moving so fast they won't be able to keep up.

Hacker15e
02-10-2018, 03:16 PM
Amazon is about 40 years of experience behind Brown and Purple in the overnight package delivery game.

It looks "easy" to the outside observer, when it is actually thousands of consecutive miracles being pulled off every night.

Someone entering the field -- regardless of their technology or "disruptive potential" -- will have years of expen$ive catching up to do.

iPilot
02-10-2018, 03:47 PM
You really think Fred Smith would go on TV with wild eyes and dripping with sweat and tell the world he's scared to death of Amazon? Of course not. The first time UPS or FedEx announce a concern about Amazon eating them alive it'll be too late. Reminds me a lot of Microsoft and Blackberry laughing at Apple when they came out with the iPhone. By the time they said there was an issue it was all over.

The funny thing is with the long term contracts Amazon has in place with UPS and FedEx they're basically forced to continue to do business for Amazon while they get to slowly build out their own competing logistics system. Without that no company would ever be able to build out that much infrastructure to pose any sort of competition from them. But now they have nothing to do but sit back and hope Amazon can't get their network in place before those contracts expire.

mainlineAF
02-10-2018, 04:49 PM
There was a recent Fox Business News video interview with Fred Smith. Google search it. Very enlightening.

Quote above is correct Fred Smith does not see Amazon as a threat, and put out a figure that without Amazon they transport millions of packages a day, and generate income from various sources, and FedEx business model is resilient without Amazon and is still growing.

The interview also touched on Unmanned Cargo flight research and development, improved distribution efficiencies potentials, facilities upgrades (increases CapItal Expenditures) thanks to new tax law, and international growth. Lots of money out there!

On a side note, UPS also just ordered like 14 Boeing 747 to keep the production alive a couple more years. Amazing really.

We are living in interesting times, a lot of growth and money out there. Companies are looking to spend on growth, acquisitions, and people.

Robots, 1 /single pilots crew, then unmanned automation are a couple years away in Fed Smiths life time (as he put it in the interview), 1 leap in technology/discovery & costs can shorten that time frame.

Fly safe, enjoy the growth, put yourself in position to take advantage of opportunities inside and outside of aviation, and earn enough to cushion yourself during any down-cycle.



I listened to the interview. He said they’re heavily looking into autonomous trucks and aircraft. He would be doing his shareholders a disservice if he didn’t look into them.

Now whether those autonomous vehicles and aircraft ever become certified and proven they will be cheaper than manned vehicles is the big question.

SaltyDog
02-11-2018, 07:30 AM
You really think Fred Smith would go on TV with wild eyes and dripping with sweat and tell the world he's scared to death of Amazon? Of course not. The first time UPS or FedEx announce a concern about Amazon eating them alive it'll be too late. Reminds me a lot of Microsoft and Blackberry laughing at Apple when they came out with the iPhone. By the time they said there was an issue it was all over.

The funny thing is with the long term contracts Amazon has in place with UPS and FedEx they're basically forced to continue to do business for Amazon while they get to slowly build out their own competing logistics system. Without that no company would ever be able to build out that much infrastructure to pose any sort of competition from them. But now they have nothing to do but sit back and hope Amazon can't get their network in place before those contracts expire.

FedEx or UPS could very quickly start an online retail business. Both could do so much quicker and much more simply than Amazon can create a transportation infrastructure. Amazon would have to compete for workers that are hard to find even for UPS and FedEx that would be reliable enough to move their own volume, much less open market volume. Certainly Bezos likes his disrupter moniker, but business reality in the transportation side really isn't his core business. He is simply looking to add reliability and cost savings on his core feeds internally for his distribution nodes. Makes sense. The rest is market fodder for ego.

Littlebird
02-11-2018, 09:27 AM
:eek::eek:FedEx or UPS could very quickly start an online retail business. Both could do so much quicker and much more simply than Amazon can create a transportation infrastructure. Amazon would have to compete for workers that are hard to find even for UPS and FedEx that would be reliable enough to move their own volume, much less open market volume. Certainly Bezos likes his disrupter moniker, but business reality in the transportation side really isn't his core business. He is simply looking to add reliability and cost savings on his core feeds internally for his distribution nodes. Makes sense. The rest is market fodder for ego.

Don't put your head in the sand with this company. They're on the heals of being the Largest market cap company in the U.S. Soon to take over CVG and they have access to very affordable, efficient Aircraft at their disposal. They're just spooling up. Some top :eek:UPS/FedEx executives have already crossed over. To think they started as a online used book store!

SaltyDog
02-11-2018, 12:24 PM
:eek::eek:

Don't put your head in the sand with this company. They're on the heals of being the Largest market cap company in the U.S. Soon to take over CVG and they have access to very affordable, efficient Aircraft at their disposal. They're just spooling up. Some top :eek:UPS/FedEx executives have already crossed over. To think they started as a online used book store!

They already have CVG. They buying out the rest of the pax ops?
Common for execs to jump ship when opportunity knocks. Corporate America normal. All mercenary at that level. UPS/FedEx get top level mercenaries too. Unless they are going after Airbus freighters, Boeing lanes pretty full for awhile. Then have to pay pilots much more that what he is willing to contract at present, then he will need to bring in house....
My head is out of the sand, joy to watch the heads in the stratosphere

G550Guy
02-12-2018, 12:32 AM
Walmart is launching a full on Amazon assault... hip new commercials are airing during the Olympics with the focus on the Walmart package showing up at your door.

Amazon stock will self correct when the competition gets real. No single company is going to rule the US consumer goods economy. The government wouldn’t allow it, and most Americans would revolt against it.

Here is a recent Walmart commercial about the box from a few weeks ago. They’re getting “primed” to go toe-2-toe with Amazon.

https://youtu.be/azV8J9wMNXs


Sent from my iPhone using Tapatalk

Pinkdog
02-12-2018, 04:12 AM
Interesting to see how this plays out.

https://www.seattletimes.com/business/amazons-delivery-dream-is-a-nightmare-for-fedex-and-ups/

brownie
02-12-2018, 04:32 AM
Walmart is launching a full on Amazon assault... hip new commercials are airing during the Olympics with the focus on the Walmart package showing up at your door.

Amazon stock will self correct when the competition gets real. No single company is going to rule the US consumer goods economy. The government wouldn’t allow it, and most Americans would revolt against it.

Here is a recent Walmart commercial about the box from a few weeks ago. They’re getting “primed” to go toe-2-toe with Amazon.

https://youtu.be/azV8J9wMNXs


Sent from my iPhone using Tapatalk

I'm with you on this but still a Walmart. As long as Walmart keeps it's superb customer service; ) intact Amazon will continue to kick ass and take numbers.

CaptainHvac
02-12-2018, 08:02 AM
I would hope that UPS and Fedex (and their unions) are smart enough not to completely disregard any and all threats Amazon may provide. This is a ruthless low margin business and one of the most powerful US companies is going to take a dive into it. Right now they have terrible service, starting from almost zero, and are widely disliked, but do not underestimate the power and momentum of a $600billion company. Remember how Amazon gets into and eventually dominates market sectors....they dip a toe and chip chip chip away to strike at the perfect moment and utterly crush the competition. That moment certainly isn't now, but if you are unprepared you will lose when the time comes.

BoilerUP
02-12-2018, 08:27 AM
I believe it is just as naive to overstate the actual risk Amazon poses to UPS/FDX as it is to underestimate their potential risk to UPS/FDX.

Think about Amazon's current logistics and delivery infrastructure: limited sort capability outside distribution centers, 40 aircraft, Prime semi trailers pulled by contractors, packages delivered the last mile by either USPS or contractors in their private vehicles with no markings or uniforms identifying them as Amazon representatives.

Now compare that to UPS and FDX; there really isn't any comparison *today*.

Could Amazon become a risk to the duopoly? Sure, they absolutely could...years down the road...but in order to do so they will need to spend tens if not hundreds of BILLIONS in CapEx on logistics and inventory structure. Lots more airplanes, LOTS more trailers and trucks, lots more sort facilities, all the support equipment required to support all the above, a vastly more reliable last mile delivery setup, and tens of thousands more employees reliable enough to make service guarantees.

All those billions in capital investment for physical infrastructure...just to capture low margin, incremental revenue growth?

Of course, if Bezos buys all or at least a controlling stake of DHL North America the equation changes significantly...and the proposed Amazon hub at CVG along with current co-mingling of DHL and Amazon volume makes that look like a possibility.

Should Memphis and Sandy Springs be paying attention and reading business changes to adapt to a well-funded intransigent competitor? Sure, absolutely! Should they be quaking in their boots at the Amazon juggernaut imminently poised to muscle them out of the logistics and delivery business? Nah....

Tango Uniform
02-12-2018, 09:01 AM
Anybody notice the rebranding of Fed Ex Ground? FDX ground switching to FDX Express color scheme. They are building hubs and centers which some are even connected between express and ground. FDX is also building hubs next too Amazon Fullfillment centers.

I’m willing to bet FDX combines Express and Ground in the future. Start diverting Express volume into the Ground Network like UPS does. Cut their labor costs with elimination of company paid Express drivers and reduce pilot force. Continue to use subcontractor model that is in existence in FDX Ground.

So FDX will increase profit, be able to do it for less than UPS. Already have infrastructure in place near Amazon fullfillment centers to accommodate Amazon business model.

I know it sounds as far fetched as drones delivering packages😁

brownie
02-12-2018, 09:21 AM
I would hope that UPS and Fedex (and their unions) are smart enough not to completely disregard any and all threats Amazon may provide. This is a ruthless low margin business and one of the most powerful US companies is going to take a dive into it. Right now they have terrible service, starting from almost zero, and are widely disliked, but do not underestimate the power and momentum of a $600billion company. Remember how Amazon gets into and eventually dominates market sectors....they dip a toe and chip chip chip away to strike at the perfect moment and utterly crush the competition. That moment certainly isn't now, but if you are unprepared you will lose when the time comes.

Exactly. ...nobody thought that one day you get into a strangers car and be treaded better for less money or I never thought I spend a night in someone's house for lot less money and double the comfort. Next is carbnb to replace traditional car rentals. Corporate America better take thier heads out of their respective asses and pay attention to what's happening.

BlueMoon
02-12-2018, 12:54 PM
Anybody notice the rebranding of Fed Ex Ground? FDX ground switching to FDX Express color scheme. They are building hubs and centers which some are even connected between express and ground. FDX is also building hubs next too Amazon Fullfillment centers.

I’m willing to bet FDX combines Express and Ground in the future. Start diverting Express volume into the Ground Network like UPS does. Cut their labor costs with elimination of company paid Express drivers and reduce pilot force. Continue to use subcontractor model that is in existence in FDX Ground.

So FDX will increase profit, be able to do it for less than UPS. Already have infrastructure in place near Amazon fullfillment centers to accommodate Amazon business model.

I know it sounds as far fetched as drones delivering packages��

FDX announced about a year and a half ago they were going to a standard color scheme of an orange ”Ex” and getting rid of the multiple different colors for different operating units.

FedEx Is Making All of Its Logos Purple and Orange, Its Most Recognized Color Scheme ? Adweek (http://www.adweek.com/brand-marketing/why-fedex-consolidating-its-color-scheme-173130/)

Sluggo_63
02-12-2018, 01:00 PM
Next is carbnb to replace traditional car rentals.Next? Too late...

www.turo.com

FTFFv2
02-13-2018, 04:40 AM
Exactly. ...nobody thought that one day you get into a strangers car and be treaded better for less money or I never thought I spend a night in someone's house for lot less money and double the comfort. Next is carbnb to replace traditional car rentals. Corporate America better take thier heads out of their respective asses and pay attention to what's happening.

The comparison isn’t logical here: Amazon isn’t attempting to do anything revolutionary with package delivery. A spattering of last mile gig-economy delivery guys isn’t going to change the game and personally, I won’t ship if I know it’s going to arrive with one of these guys - had a couple of bad experiences.

Great rational arguments as always Boiler. Thx.

Jason605
02-13-2018, 09:18 AM
DHL tried it and lost billions.

DHL didn't actually "try it" though. When DHL bought Airborne, they didn't listen to Airborne. The Germans wanted to do it their way. Had they listened to Airborne, I think the landscape today would have been much more different.

DHL as a whole ships more worldwide than UPS and FEDEx. Just buying DHL America would make Amazon a force. If he bought DHL and ran it right? That would be a lot of trouble for the duo. Wouldn't put them out of biz but it would hurt.

sky jet
02-13-2018, 10:47 AM
I've not seen this in print and there are a ton of problems to the plan but I don't think that with Amazons money they are insurmountable. Why not buy the USPS off the US government. If you commit to home mail delivery staying as it is for let's say 30 or more years and keeping the workforce that is there Amazon would receive a turn key operation that already delivers to every address in the USA and it's territories.

The US government keeps home delivery for every citizen and rids itself of a burden that it hasn't really wanted since the 1980's or earlier. It also eliminates overnight the pension expense in the Federal budget of all of those retired mail workers.

While the cost would be high to Amazon they have the market capitalization to pull it off. With a Republican president and congress now would be a great time to push for privatization.

Some people, especially older Americans who rely more heavily on snail mail to do business might fight it but much like Amtrak does the federal government really need to be in the mail or rail business in the digital era?

Huck
02-13-2018, 11:17 AM
I've not seen this in print and there are a ton of problems to the plan but I don't think that with Amazons money they are insurmountable. Why not buy the USPS off the US government. If you commit to home mail delivery staying as it is for let's say 30 or more years and keeping the workforce that is there Amazon would receive a turn key operation that already delivers to every address in the USA and it's territories.

The US government keeps home delivery for every citizen and rids itself of a burden that it hasn't really wanted since the 1980's or earlier. It also eliminates overnight the pension expense in the Federal budget of all of those retired mail workers.

While the cost would be high to Amazon they have the market capitalization to pull it off. With a Republican president and congress now would be a great time to push for privatization.

Some people, especially older Americans who rely more heavily on snail mail to do business might fight it but much like Amtrak does the federal government really need to be in the mail or rail business in the digital era?

https://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/Postal_Clause

sky jet
02-13-2018, 11:26 AM
I don't see anything that bans a third party from delivering the mail as long as congress continues to monitor that delivery. There are contract mail carriers all over rural America. This would be the same thing only on a massive scale. There could still be a Postmaster General and staff to make sure the third party maintains the minimum service while they are maximizing the rest of the operation.

I get almost nothing in the mail that I could not receive digitally. As a tax payer I am all for privatization of services that the private sector could do better and cheaper.

Tumbl3weed
02-13-2018, 03:14 PM
DHL didn't actually "try it" though. When DHL bought Airborne, they didn't listen to Airborne. The Germans wanted to do it their way. Had they listened to Airborne, I think the landscape today would have been much more different.

DHL as a whole ships more worldwide than UPS and FEDEx. Just buying DHL America would make Amazon a force. If he bought DHL and ran it right? That would be a lot of trouble for the duo. Wouldn't put them out of biz but it would hurt.

Agree; BUT, right now it appears Amazon is making the same mistakes DHL made...first and foremost, using ACMI carriers may be cheaper, but you get what you pay for. If they ever want to compete with UPS/FEDEX they need to have direct control of the airline. On time performance failures will not be tolerated by US business customers(as DHL found out in less than 2 years) and will soon wear thin with the door to door consumers. DHL never understood the first 10 minutes of “Castaway”...time will tell if Bezos is a Tom Hanks fan

Atrasaty
02-13-2018, 05:24 PM
No one will ever compete with Purple or Brown by doing it on the cheap and trying to undercut. Both DHL and Amazon despise employees and thus contract out as much as possible to the lowest bidder and I don't think they are capable of changing their business model. FedEx and UPS have frontline EMPLOYEES with skin in the game and it seriously shows when comparing the ramp operations in MEM, SDF and CVG. And I have flown using all three call signs.

airbus300
02-13-2018, 06:11 PM
---------......

clb2vnav
02-14-2018, 01:23 AM
Amazon won't compete with anyone if the ACMIs think they can continue to offer low QOL and low pay with no work rules. There will be no one to staff the planes.

brownie
02-14-2018, 02:23 AM
Amazon won't compete with anyone if the ACMIs think they can continue to offer low QOL and low pay with no work rules. There will be no one to staff the planes.

There are plenty of snowflakes willing to sell their soul for 80k to fly those shiny primes metals. They've done it at the commuters for a fraction of that.

Ludicrous Speed
02-14-2018, 02:41 AM
The comparison isn’t logical here: Amazon isn’t attempting to do anything revolutionary with package delivery. A spattering of last mile gig-economy delivery guys isn’t going to change the game and personally, I won’t ship if I know it’s going to arrive with one of these guys - had a couple of bad experiences.


Just do a YouTube search and you’ll find a plethora of videos with FDX/UPS delivery guys (as with Amazon gig drivers, although not as many...yet) doing all kinds of dastardly deeds to someone’s packages. Being a uniform wearing W2 employee isn’t necessarily indicative of a good work ethic.

sky jet
02-14-2018, 04:42 AM
Agree; BUT, right now it appears Amazon is making the same mistakes DHL made...first and foremost, using ACMI carriers may be cheaper, but you get what you pay for. If they ever want to compete with UPS/FEDEX they need to have direct control of the airline. On time performance failures will not be tolerated by US business customers(as DHL found out in less than 2 years) and will soon wear thin with the door to door consumers. DHL never understood the first 10 minutes of “Castaway”...time will tell if Bezos is a Tom Hanks fan

DHL uses the same model all over the world and is far and away the largest freight/package/next day company in Europe, Asia and the Middle East. They can compete in the USA just fine using ACMI airlines if they learned the lessons from the last time.

I can hear the peanut gallery now. But, but, but UPS brought it in house because the contract guys couldn't do it to their standards. The ACMI carriers of today are nothing like the ones in the 1980's. But, but, but the FAA wont let them operate this way because of operational control. Again, not the 1980's. We gave had 30 years now of the majors effectively controlling the regionals and the FAA hasn't stepped in. The political climate is far different today also.

Trust me, our German Overlords know how to move freight, on time, anywhere in the world. Yes they made a mistake in the US years ago. But I wouldn't bet on them repeating it.

METO Guido
02-14-2018, 05:14 AM
Just do a YouTube search and you’ll find a plethora of videos with FDX/UPS delivery guys (as with Amazon gig drivers, although not as many...yet) doing all kinds of dastardly deeds to someone’s packages. Being a uniform wearing W2 employee isn’t necessarily indicative of a good work ethic.
On the one hand, you decry big business, right wing boilerplate (whatever that is these days) as anathema to collective bargaining. On the other, represented delivery workers as uncompetitive. Which is it?

Jurassic Jet
02-14-2018, 05:15 AM
Trust me, our German Overlords know how to move freight, on time

Thanks for the laugh! Have you ever been to CVG?

:p :D

sky jet
02-14-2018, 05:27 AM
Thanks for the laugh! Have you ever been to CVG?

:p :D

All the time. I see 7 or eight different airlines from several countries operating as they should. The problems you see in CVG are caused almost exclusively by the ground staff. There is nothing wrong with the model as per the airlines. There is definitely something wrong with the ground people. I see no reason why that part of the operation couldn't be improved and then the whole thing run as efficiently as the competitors. The staff of all three are hired within a 200 mile radius so it's basically the same pool. Besides, have you listened to yhe ramp stories of your UPS and FedEx friend. It is a lot of the same. When was the last time a CVG problem was a crew or airlines fault? Not counting mechanicals because I know Brown and Purple planes break at times also. I took a delay last month for an MD-11 that pushed back and then wouldn't start.

nonrev dad
02-14-2018, 06:23 AM
A spattering of last mile gig-economy delivery guys isn’t going to change the game

Yes, the last mile is the most costly and difficult to complete, can't see that going well for Amazon overall. But it could mean opportunity for the ground games of Brown and FedEx as Postal continues to bleed red ink and reduce service (no rural door delivery, coming to your area soon!)

No Land 3
02-14-2018, 06:26 AM
Yes, Amazon is a threat. Not today, but tomorrow.

DC8DRIVER
02-14-2018, 08:16 AM
All the time. I see 7 or eight different airlines from several countries operating as they should.

Perhaps you could have your vision checked. Those of us who have worked at CVG for the past twenty years have seen the inefficiencies that the Germans have brought to the operation in an effort to save a buck. They are efficient at saving money ... no matter what the cost!

Not only does the lack of oversight and accountability show in daily snafus, but it also results in no transparency of problems like duplicate flights and scheduling errors. Just as one example, a 767 was broken and needed to be rescued. The rescue plane and crew at CVG (from a different airline) dispatched immediately from Cincinnati to JFK to rescue the freight. Upon arrival at JFK, the crew of the empty freighter were told that the cargo they were supposed to "rescue" was still sitting in the broken plane.

In CVG.

German efficiency my butt ...

I highly doubt that Amazon, a company with zero experience at running an airline, will fare any better.

8

dera
02-14-2018, 08:38 AM
Amazon would receive a turn key operation that already delivers to every address in the USA and it's territories.

The US government keeps home delivery for every citizen and rids itself of a burden that it hasn't really wanted since the 1980's or earlier. It also eliminates overnight the pension expense in the Federal budget of all of those retired mail workers.



USPS doesn't do "home delivery for every citizen". There are plenty of small towns with no home delivery mail, PO box only.

Sluggo_63
02-14-2018, 08:49 AM
Trust me, our German Overlords know how to move freight, on time, anywhere in the world. Yes they made a mistake in the US years ago. But I wouldn't bet on them repeating it.Ha! I live in Germany, and let me tell you, DHL ain’t all that. Routinely have packages late, couple times lost, and more often than I would like, they’d just rather just put a sticker on our mailbox that says we can pick up our package at the “local” DHL Paketshop, 3km away.

sky jet
02-14-2018, 08:50 AM
Well, you guys may be right about Amazon or DHL not being able to challenge FedEx and UPS.... today. But someone will. There is too much ecommerce. Somebody right now is working on a plan to get a big piece of that pie. It is probably somebody we have never yet heard of. This I know, history is littered with companies that were the largest in their industry but were eventually dethroned by technology or an evolving market place. (railroads, steamship lines, aircraft manufactures, stage coach lines to name a few. These companies were huge but at some point didn't evolve into the next thing. Why is it that the huge steamship companies of the late 1800's early 1900's didn't get into the airline business? It was theirs for the taking.) While I don't think Brown and Purple are going to be gone I am certain that they will be sharing the market with some other players someday.

No Land 3
02-14-2018, 10:54 AM
The richest man in the world can do anything he wants.

Jurassic Jet
02-14-2018, 11:13 AM
The richest man in the world can do anything he wants.

Amazon could pay cash for 100 brand spanking new 767s, 15,000 delivery vehicles and all the ground support equipment and still have 2/3rds of their current cash on hand in the bank.

Tumbl3weed
02-14-2018, 11:17 AM
Well, you guys may be right about Amazon or DHL not being able to challenge FedEx and UPS.... today. But someone will. There is too much ecommerce. Somebody right now is working on a plan to get a big piece of that pie. It is probably somebody we have never yet heard of. This I know, history is littered with companies that were the largest in their industry but were eventually dethroned by technology or an evolving market place. (railroads, steamship lines, aircraft manufactures, stage coach lines to name a few. These companies were huge but at some point didn't evolve into the next thing. Why is it that the huge steamship companies of the late 1800's early 1900's didn't get into the airline business? It was theirs for the taking.) While I don't think Brown and Purple are going to be gone I am certain that they will be sharing the market with some other players someday.
Not sure where you’re coming from, but seems pretty obvious you don’t really know what goes on in CVG. DHL is constantly late and the loads seem to steadily shrink...if DHL is Amazons model, I’ll put my money on UPS/FEDEX running them out of the sector.

Ludicrous Speed
02-14-2018, 11:19 AM
On the one hand, you decry big business, right wing boilerplate (whatever that is these days) as anathema to collective bargaining. On the other, represented delivery workers as uncompetitive. Which is it?

I don’t know what kind of straw man that you’re trying to create, but I did not say that at all.....not even close.

CallmeJB
02-14-2018, 11:38 AM
I highly doubt that Amazon, a company with zero experience at running [a warehouse/a membership program/a trucking company/a video rental store/a mobile app/a grocery store/a supply chain/an airline], will fare any better.

Fixed it for you.

I'm not saying they will be successful challenging Fedex and UPS, I'm just stating the obvious: there's a long list of companies that didn't think Amazon would be a threat.

How does one company end up challenging grocery stores and Netflix in the same decade? Those aren't even close to the same sector.

sky jet
02-14-2018, 11:56 AM
Not sure where you’re coming from, but seems pretty obvious you don’t really know what goes on in CVG. DHL is constantly late and the loads seem to steadily shrink...if DHL is Amazons model, I’ll put my money on UPS/FEDEX running them out of the sector.

I just said you might be right about DHL. As to my impression of CVG I am usually there several times a month and things generally go pretty well. My experience might be different because I don't do it daily and I only fly the flights that connect the hubs. But I do believe that if FedEx and UPS don't stay ahead of the curve there will be other people enter their markets and compete sucessfully.

METO Guido
02-14-2018, 02:23 PM
I don’t know what kind of straw man that you’re trying to create, but I did not say that at all.....not even close.

If you knew anything about labor history, long and recent past, you would know that voting Republican is clearly worse for unions than voting Democrat. Are Dems hands clean? No. Nevertheless, being pro union and voting Republican is a contradiction.

Being a uniform wearing W2 employee isn’t necessarily indicative of a good work ethic.


Efforts to politicize or equate conservative values as anti-labor are misguided. The uniformed, full time with benefits delivery worker at UPS, FDX or USPS is in the cross hairs of a business strategy designed to dramatically lower cost through advanced IT management of piece work contracting in process areas where automation is not yet possible.

The story of transportation is, hand in glove, a story of organized labor. If AMZN is to change that, they're going to need a bigger Death Star.

DC8DRIVER
02-14-2018, 03:26 PM
Originally Posted by DC8DRIVER View Post
I highly doubt that Amazon, a company with zero experience at running [a warehouse/a membership program/a trucking company/a video rental store/a mobile app/a grocery store/a supply chain/an airline], will fare any better.

Fixed it for you.

I'm not saying they will be successful challenging Fedex and UPS, I'm just stating the obvious: there's a long list of companies that didn't think Amazon would be a threat.

How does one company end up challenging grocery stores and Netflix in the same decade? Those aren't even close to the same sector.

Yes because running an airline is JUST like running a grocery store!

DC8DRIVER
02-14-2018, 03:36 PM
The richest man in the world can do anything he wants.

Amazon could pay cash for 100 brand spanking new 767s, 15,000 delivery vehicles and all the ground support equipment and still have 2/3rds of their current cash on hand in the bank.

Richest man in the world can't perform surgery on himself.
Richest man in the world can't beat LeBron in one-on one.
And the richest man in the world can't fly 767's.

He can buy every jet out there but it is the intricate command and control structure that takes years to develop. Heck look at established airlines that STILL screw things up royally every year.

All the cash in the world can't buy experience and, unless the cash is industry standard, hopefully he won't get enough pilots to fly all of his new jets.

Amazon needs to cough up the cash. It's not like they can't afford it.

Pilots need to know their worth!

Timberdux
02-14-2018, 03:43 PM
The richest man in the world can do anything he wants.

He’s the richest man alive due to his owning 78.9 million shares of Amazon. He/Amazon are one mistake away from having the rug pulled out from under them. Investing enough of their money to compete with Purple and Brown would be EXTREMELY risky. Even if they were able to suceeed, ecommerce is projected to double over the next 4-5 years. I think there will be more than enough freight available to keep everyone in the black.

No Land 3
02-14-2018, 04:02 PM
People said Elon Musk couldn’t do the things he has done, and will continue to do. The doubters need to accept that it is a possibility. The driving force in all of this is the consumer. If I can send a package through Amazon for half the price UPS and FedEx charged, guess what? There’s always pilots willing to fly a 767 for less than what Brown/Purple, and Connie are paying. Brown and Purple being competitive will do what they need to do. Pilot pay may or may not be affected, but Bezos WILL find his pilots.

Timberdux
02-14-2018, 04:11 PM
There’s a possibility that a meteorite will take out the superhub tonight and I’ll be out of a job when I wake up, but I’m not gonna lose any sleep over that either.

BlueMoon
02-14-2018, 06:19 PM
How do the plan on making it substantially cheaper? Delivery is an amiazingly capital instensive business. Planes, sort facilities and all the other associated support equipment cost a lot of money. And they likely won’t have much of an advantage here as pretty much everyone is going to pay market rates for infastructure.

They can try to save on labor/automate or they can subsidies shipping from the rest of their business just to try and drive competitors out of business and hope not to cause harm to thier core business. UPS and FDX will likely innovate to keep pace and find ways to cut cost.

Doing it cheaper isn’t a given.

CallmeJB
02-15-2018, 07:14 AM
Doing it cheaper isn’t a given.

Yep. I agree with this.

atpcliff
02-15-2018, 10:29 AM
People said Elon Musk couldn’t do the things he has done, and will continue to do. The doubters need to accept that it is a possibility. The driving force in all of this is the consumer. If I can send a package through Amazon for half the price UPS and FedEx charged, guess what? There’s always pilots willing to fly a 767 for less than what Brown/Purple, and Connie are paying. Brown and Purple being competitive will do what they need to do. Pilot pay may or may not be affected, but Bezos WILL find his pilots.

For the number of aircraft required to fill the hub in CVG, Amazon will need to get pilots to choose to fly the Amazon aircraft, instead of going to DAL/AA/UAL/SWA/UPS/FedEx. This means the contract to fly the Amazon planes will have to be, on average, better than the contracts for the big 6.

Namaste...

galaxy flyer
02-15-2018, 11:15 AM
For the number of aircraft required to fill the hub in CVG, Amazon will need to get pilots to choose to fly the Amazon aircraft, instead of going to DAL/AA/UAL/SWA/UPS/FedEx. This means the contract to fly the Amazon planes will have to be, on average, better than the contracts for the big 6.

Namaste...

Have you thought your position through? There will be droves of guys who will fly for Amazon as a stepping stone to the big leagues; especially if regionals really shrink. There are tons of 135 guys who will jump at it.

GF

Jason605
02-15-2018, 03:20 PM
DHL never understood the first 10 minutes of “Castaway”...time will tell if Bezos is a Tom Hanks fan

Excellent statement! I agree.

Ludicrous Speed
02-15-2018, 06:07 PM
Efforts to politicize or equate conservative values as anti-labor are misguided.

Nope. Not at all. To say there is no political component to labor is intellectually dishonest at best. History speaks for itself and your biases has no effect on such.


The uniformed, full time with benefits delivery worker at UPS, FDX or USPS is in the cross hairs of a business strategy designed to dramatically lower cost through advanced IT management of piece work contracting in process areas where automation is not yet possible.

The story of transportation is, hand in glove, a story of organized labor. If AMZN is to change that, they're going to need a bigger Death Star.

First of all, FDX mostly uses contractors for its “last mile” delivery, and unfortunately, they are typically non-union. UPS delivery drivers are all union. Otherwise, I agree with the rest.

Overall, your previous post was still way off and smelled of the straw man.

iHateAMR
02-15-2018, 07:17 PM
Amazon could pay cash for 100 brand spanking new 767s, 15,000 delivery vehicles and all the ground support equipment and still have 2/3rds of their current cash on hand in the bank.

Great, but FedEx has 660 airplanes, many of them able to haul more than a “brand spanking new 767.” They also have 90,000 vehicles, and 220,000 people. Amazon would need to not only match that, but do it overnight. Then, sustain the operation in a multi billion a year loss state until they build up a customer base that makes money. Not to mention Amazon has done nothing innovative that makes it more efficient than FedEx/UPS, so it will cost the same to run their operation. The entire company has made only 2 billion in 2016, it’s highest profit ever! They could pull all their boxes off FedEx, but FedEx would only lose at most 3% of their revenue and be left with loads of bulk space for higher margin boxes from other retailers.

So go ahead amazon, spend your entire worth on building a network overnight, attempt to sustain it thru your low margin sales. We’ll see how long that will last.

No Land 3
02-15-2018, 08:21 PM
Amazon also delivers on Sundays...

Red Baron
02-16-2018, 03:12 AM
Maybe Amazon will buy FedEx.......stranger things have happened in this industry.

3pointlanding
02-16-2018, 03:55 AM
Great, but FedEx has 660 airplanes, many of them able to haul more than a “brand spanking new 767.” They also have 90,000 vehicles, and 220,000 people. Amazon would need to not only match that, but do it overnight. Then, sustain the operation in a multi billion a year loss state until they build up a customer base that makes money. Not to mention Amazon has done nothing innovative that makes it more efficient than FedEx/UPS, so it will cost the same to run their operation. The entire company has made only 2 billion in 2016, it’s highest profit ever! They could pull all their boxes off FedEx, but FedEx would only lose at most 3% of their revenue and be left with loads of bulk space for higher margin boxes from other retailers.

So go ahead amazon, spend your entire worth on building a network overnight, attempt to sustain it thru your low margin sales. We’ll see how long that will last.

I hate to bust your bubble but FedExx doesn't have anything close to 660 aircraft. Out D085 lists around 360 aircraft

BoilerUP
02-16-2018, 04:06 AM
I hate to bust your bubble but FedExx doesn't have anything close to 660 aircraft. Out D085 lists around 360 aircraft

The 2017 Annual Report shows 657 aircraft in the FedEx Express Aircraft Fleet....which includes feeder aircraft.

https://about.van.fedex.com/newsroom/fedex-express-continues-modernization-of-aircraft-fleet/

FedEx currently deploys more than 300 feeder aircraft in 45 countries. Most of these feeder aircraft are owned by FedEx, and are leased and operated by different third-party air carriers under their own operating certificates. The FedEx feeder fleet is comprised of aircraft under 60,000 pounds maximum gross take-off weight, and allows the company to provide fast, economical service to small and medium-sized markets around the world.

The FedEx feeder fleet complements the company’s jet fleet of over 360 aircraft, including Boeing 777s, B767s and B757s, MD11s, MD10s, Airbus 300s and Airbus 310s.

USMCFDX
02-16-2018, 04:13 AM
I hate to bust your bubble but FedExx doesn't have anything close to 660 aircraft. Out D085 lists around 360 aircraft

The 600 number includes FedEx owned feeder aircraft.

METO Guido
02-16-2018, 05:45 AM
First of all, FDX mostly uses contractors for its “last mile” delivery, and unfortunately, they are typically non-union. UPS delivery drivers are all union. Otherwise, I agree with the rest.

Overall, your previous post was still way off and smelled of the straw man.

I don't tell anyone how to vote, who to watch or what to read. If that makes me a straw man, so be it.

FDX employs an army of full time couriers to staff so called last mile delivery logistics. That component is said to account for up to 30% of doorstep shipment cost. If a competitor succeeds in Uber-ing that number down, they create an advantage the others cannot ignore.

AMZN's transportation & parcel handling initiatives will succeed or fail on their own merits. A compelling enterprise drama it is. Financial performance during the next economic cycle trough will be telling. Not to mention share value as colossal bills for what they're attempting mount.

https://s9.postimg.org/4vixrmo7j/Milkshake.png (https://postimages.org/)

spanners70
02-16-2018, 06:59 AM
My money isn’t on amazon going it alone, nor buying ups or fed ex.
Look what there doing in Cvg. Dhl is the worlds biggest international delivery outfit and pretty much all night they work and everything sit idle during the day. Amazon are using Cvg in the day not at night. DHL’s biggest customer? Amazon. Put them together what have you got over night....watch the space instantly amazon have a worldwide proven time definite delivery system to over 220 countries using an existing system that’s already in place...and using the assets at opposite times. It’s just a question of when they merge

No way they will touch ups or fed ex, the management way of doing things at Dhl and amazon are so similar. look in Europe where all the amazon warehouses are popping up right next to the airports where Dhl are a big air operator..

iPilot
02-16-2018, 09:37 AM
I doubt Amazon would buy DHL just because of the international regulation that would come from that. However I can see them basically doing a joint venture of sorts.

One of DHL's biggest obstacles in the US is that they're a foreign entity and therefore can't own a US transportation system. They can rely on 3rd party carriers like they are but that can only take you so far. No way even Atlas could find enough financing to get the airplanes needed since they have only a 5 year contract to back up the financing (versus FedEx and UPS which have their own business as proof that flying won't just dry up overnight and leave aircraft lessors holding the bag).

However here's Amazon with a need for a transportation network and the finances to make it happen. What they don't have is access to international markets which no amount of money can be bought overnight.

Amazon could build as big a network as it wants in the US since it's a domestic company which will help DHL penetrate that market. Amazon can use DHL's international presence both to sell internationally but also to bring goods in from China and the rest of the world. You could ship a DHL box that would ride on an Amazon jet to CVG and out to the rest of the world and Amazon can bring a pallet of stuff from China using DHL's existing network. Consider it a codeshare for boxes.

I don't think FedEx and UPS have much to worry about until Amazon starts to sell excess freight to other companies at or below cost. I think this will very much follow how Amazon became a leader in cloud computing where they had all this excess computing capacity for their online store which they sold to other companies for cheap. In a way they could have this entire transportation system paid for by everyone else and thus their own shipping costs are zero or even below zero (if they decide to make money on it). It'll be pretty hard for a profit-oriented FedEx or UPS to compete with an entity that doesn't have to make money so much as reduce its own costs.

CallmeJB
02-16-2018, 10:01 AM
No way even Atlas could find enough financing to get the airplanes needed since they have only a 5 year contract to back up the financing.

Just a small correction: Atlas has a 7 year contract to operate the aircraft; but more importantly, Amazon agreed to sign 10 years leases on each aircraft that Atlas (Titan) acquired to operate. So there is a 10 year lease to back up the financing.

Otherwise, I agree with everything in your post, especially that Amazon doesn't need to make money on their transportation system, they just need to spend less than they are paying FedEx and UPS to operate the transportation system for them.

iPilot
02-16-2018, 10:12 AM
Just a small correction: Atlas has a 7 year contract to operate the aircraft; but more importantly, Amazon agreed to sign 10 years leases on each aircraft that Atlas (Titan) acquired to operate. So there is a 10 year lease to back up the financing.

Otherwise, I agree with everything in your post, especially that Amazon doesn't need to make money on their transportation system, they just need to spend less than they are paying FedEx and UPS to operate the transportation system for them.


Eh its all semantics. Point being that an ACMI has only a contract for lift or at best a track record of finding work when a lessor agrees to buy them an airplane. That's fine when you're talking about a few dozen airplanes spread out amongst several contracts. However good luck getting Wall Street to agree to buying say, 100 airplanes on an ACMI contract of any length. If Amazon kissed Atlas or ABX goodbye there would be no way those companies or the underlying leasing firms could find a use for all those jets. If outsourcing was the way to go you can bet UPS and FedEx would of cracked that nut long ago.

brownie
02-16-2018, 11:15 AM
Eh its all semantics. Point being that an ACMI has only a contract for lift or at best a track record of finding work when a lessor agrees to buy them an airplane. That's fine when you're talking about a few dozen airplanes spread out amongst several contracts. However good luck getting Wall Street to agree to buying say, 100 airplanes on an ACMI contract of any length. If Amazon kissed Atlas or ABX goodbye there would be no way those companies or the underlying leasing firms could find a use for all those jets. If outsourcing was the way to go you can bet UPS and FedEx would of cracked that nut long ago.

Ups had the nut cracked for a loooooooooooooooooooong time but the Feds had them seal it with the help of FedEx.

Elevation
02-16-2018, 12:20 PM
Back in the day a mathematician observed a bunch of people trying to guess the weight of a cow at a county fair. The farmer whose guess came closest won the beautiful bovine. Nobody guessed anywhere near the correct weight of the cow. However, when the mathematician averaged the guesses, he found that the median guess was almost exactly correct.

At the next county fair, while farmers were guessing the weight of a prize pig, the mathematician jotted down the guesses for the pig’s weight, averaged them and submitted that number. He won a gorgeous, well-mannered pig!

My point is we can be that pig-owning math-nerd!

A very large number of Atlas pilots are waiting for a call from UPS. Still more have left for FedEx. That said a sizeable minority of young and qualified pilots have chosen to stay and wait to see how contract negotiations and other things play out.

Based on the deliberate decisions of our peers, I’d say the odds are next to nil that we will see Amazon put UPS or FedEx out of business. We will likely, however, see Amazon rise to ant equal or near-position over the next decades. From a pilot’s perspective people generally see a more lucrative and stable future at UPS or FedEx, but that could change in the very long term.

Whaledriver101
02-17-2018, 09:45 PM
Amazon is in no way a threat to UPS or Fedex. They still have the "anti labor" mentality of the 80's,,90's. Using low cost dirt bag carriers like Atlas & ATI. Atlas & ATI are just contractors. Dont give a **** if the Amazon boxes move on time or not.

atpcliff
02-17-2018, 10:04 PM
Have you thought your position through? There will be droves of guys who will fly for Amazon as a stepping stone to the big leagues; especially if regionals really shrink. There are tons of 135 guys who will jump at it.

GF

Currently, Atlas, Southern, Omni, ATI, etc., etc. are all having severe pilot hiring and retention problems, because we all have sub-standard contracts. If Amazon offers the same type of contract, they will have the same HR problems that we all are having.

Jurassic Jet
02-18-2018, 10:12 AM
Trust me, our German Overlords know how to move freight, on time, anywhere in the world.

900 stores shut down. :D;)


https://www.mirror.co.uk/news/uk-news/dhl-apologise-kfc-chicken-shortage-12047682?utm_source=google_news&utm_medium=referral&utm_campaign=google_news&utm_content=sitemap

wjcandee
02-18-2018, 10:34 PM
900 stores shut down. :D;)


https://www.mirror.co.uk/news/uk-news/dhl-apologise-kfc-chicken-shortage-12047682?utm_source=google_news&utm_medium=referral&utm_campaign=google_news&utm_content=sitemap

Geez, what a debacle. No KFC for days all over Britain? Yikes. Candidly, it sounds like this operation was helmed by the same geniuses who demanded that Airborne cut over to the new German automated system at ILN on the same day that DHL changed a bunch of destination codes. Result: Chaos, and really the beginning of the end of domestic DHL as customers fled.

As of tonight, 5 days after the switchover, per the KFC website, I count fewer than 250 restaurants of the 900 in the UK as open. Uhboy.

Arrogance, hubris, you pick the right word. Companies like SYSCO have spent literally decades refining restaurant delivery service. It's incredibly-complicated to receive fresh and frozen foods from manufacturers, store them, and deliver them temperature-controlled as needed to franchisees and company-owned restaurant locations. The number one most important thing any customer wants is ease of ordering and reliability and accuracy of delivery, with no damage to or contamination of the product from manufacturer to restaurant door. It's a hard, expensive business, and for some newbies who have never done it to highlight goals like "zero-net-emissions" makes it sound like maybe reliability and integrity of delivery isn't Job One when they "rewrite the rulebook". And if those aren't the primary missions, stuff like this happens.

Whole Foods found this out when they switched over to a 2-years-in-the-making "just in time" delivery model where they stopped storing virtually anything in the back of the stores to make the beancounters happy by reducing inventory. So when the Amazon purchase caused demand for their products to rise by 20 or 30 percent -- whoops! -- the new system couldn't handle it and huge swaths of shelves ended up looking for days like a Piggly-Wiggly in Pensacola on the night before a hurricane.

Maybe I have become an old fuddy-duddy, but there's merit in the concept of "if it ain't broke, don't fix it". Tweak it, sure. But do a wholesale overnight replacement at your peril.

One final thought: my EWAG is that this whole fiasco actually damages the KFC brand in Britain for another reason. All the British papers are blaming DHL and showing picture after picture of a basic DHL delivery truck. Of course, that's not the special refrigerated vehicle that DHL's partner is going to use to do the actual deliveries. But looking at the pictures when reading the articles, the idea that leaky boxes of fresh chicken are going to be coming to my restaurant in the dirty back of that unrefrigerated DHL truck just skeeves me out. Blecch. I know that's not the actual procedure but the picture is just imprinted on my brain. Gross. I have to think that others are going to have the same reaction and will just be turned off to the brand. I guess we'll see. (Note to DHL: There's a reason that SYSCO trucks look like they do -- gleaming stainless steel, refrigeration units blasting away -- because people notice.)

ocskyguy
02-19-2018, 02:59 AM
Gee,

I should probably cruise the chains that don't have any thing to do with Kalitta more often. You guys are actually having an intelligent conversation.

Having said that, I think that the ACMI model that Amazon is using is just a stepping stone to truly becoming an integrator on their own. Albeit a vertically integrated company. They got Atlas and ATSG to climb on board in return for their ability to purchase significant amounts of company stock. There would be no need to acquire DHL, since the lift is already captive. And, the CVG sort that they are contemplating is significantly larger than the DHL facility.

When Amazon actually pulls the trigger, I would bet that they acquire controlling interest in both ATSG and Atlas. Then, merge them both and press on. Share holders will be happy. ATSG and Atlas execs will be happy with their buyouts. Pilots will get the scraps (as we always do) until they go to the line in negotiations. And, FDX and UPS will lose a fairly significant customer. But, there is plenty of business out there. FDX and UPS may miss the Amazon traffic for a while, but they will survive nicely on other business.

We just need to make sure that the pilots get a piece of the pie..

atpcliff
02-27-2018, 12:39 AM
Amazon starting up Down Under.

https://www.reuters.com/article/us-australia-amazon-com/amazon-takes-on-delivery-challenge-for-australian-merchants-idUSKCN1GA2WK

Namaste...

Sluggo_63
03-08-2018, 08:02 AM
https://thejourney.van.fedex.com/?cmp=BAC-1004338-2-5-952-1110000-US-US-EN-1503096:213609527:1801037#page01

Video on first page. Your move, Amazon...

brownie
03-08-2018, 09:25 AM
https://thejourney.van.fedex.com/?cmp=BAC-1004338-2-5-952-1110000-US-US-EN-1503096:213609527:1801037#page01

Video on first page. Your move, Amazon...

I agree with your sentiment but it took them 40 years because they started with almost zero but Amazon is starting out with net worth of 750 Billion. It's a big difference and a new world....FedEx started out with Falcons Amazon started with 40 767's and probably more to come, I agree Rome wasn't build in one day but if it's up to Amazon it will build it in two day prime😉😉😉we shall see.

dynap09
03-08-2018, 06:00 PM
https://thejourney.van.fedex.com/?cmp=BAC-1004338-2-5-952-1110000-US-US-EN-1503096:213609527:1801037#page01

Video on first page. Your move, Amazon...

Love the video.

That said - this also shows how deadly serious Fedex is taking amazon -
rightfully so.

Amazon owns a lot of customers. For example, they have some deal where printer companies auto communicate with amazon to send new toner. Once folks sign up that's a nice lockin.

Another point - someone orders off some brick and motor website with free shipping but it takes a week and half to show up. They order something else from amazon - there in two days. Ironically both delivered by fedex or ups - but in their head amazon is "fast", fedex is "slow".

I wouldn't underestimate amazon, but the market is huge, they have a long way to go before they can even deliver their own volume (inbound + outbound has to be major already). But it won't cost them much to dip a pretty big toe in (they already have reasonably automated warehouses).

crewman
03-12-2018, 06:57 AM
https://beta.techcrunch.com/2018/02/09/amazon-said-to-launch-delivery-service-to-compete-with-ups-and-fedex/

https://aircargoworld.com/allposts/amazon-adds-210-acres-to-future-cincinnati-airport-hub/

motorclutch
03-12-2018, 07:19 AM
Old news....and DHL was gonna decimate the domestic overnight market! How did that work out?

Tango Uniform
03-12-2018, 11:12 AM
I live near two Amazon Fulfillment Centers. Recently have been seeing a number of DHL Supply Chain tractor trailers going there. They are not the bright yellow and red either. All white tractors with DHL Supply chain solutions stickers very small and rental trailers or all white trailers with no markings for the most part. Something is going on between the two.

Amazon has also hired away a number of UPS management. Not sure if that helps them though.....

CactusCrew
03-12-2018, 11:56 AM
Amazon has also hired away a number of UPS management. Not sure if that helps them though.....

:D LOL

Depends on which ones, and how long they were at Brown.

There might be hope for them ... :D

brownie
03-12-2018, 12:04 PM
I live near two Amazon Fulfillment Centers. Recently have been seeing a number of DHL Supply Chain tractor trailers going there. They are not the bright yellow and red either. All white tractors with DHL Supply chain solutions stickers very small and rental trailers or all white trailers with no markings for the most part. Something is going on between the two.

Amazon has also hired away a number of UPS management. Not sure if that helps them though.....

And ups has hired Wal-Mart and Amazon hireups and exec's too and it doesn't mean squat. All this hype of Amazon going head to head with FedEx and ups is nothing more than w hen SWA bought Airtran and was moving into Atlanta or when jet blue came into business to compete in LCC market and so on. Look packages and people are all the same there are plenty to go around and E-commerce is doubling in next 10 to 15 yrs. Amazon wants to jump in they're more than welcome it's still not enough planes and people to handle the rate of growth to keep up with demand. As of 2017 only 8% of total us retail purchase was done online now you do the math in next 10 to 15 yrs as e commerce double as online shopping and shipping how entering Amazon into logistics can hurt ups or FedEx. Simply not enough lift no matter who comes in to the play.
JMO

Tango Uniform
03-12-2018, 02:16 PM
And ups has hired Wal-Mart and Amazon hireups and exec's too and it doesn't mean squat. All this hype of Amazon going head to head with FedEx and ups is nothing more than w hen SWA bought Airtran and was moving into Atlanta or when jet blue came into business to compete in LCC market and so on. Look packages and people are all the same there are plenty to go around and E-commerce is doubling in next 10 to 15 yrs. Amazon wants to jump in they're more than welcome it's still not enough planes and people to handle the rate of growth to keep up with demand. As of 2017 only 8% of total us retail purchase was done online now you do the math in next 10 to 15 yrs as e commerce double as online shopping and shipping how entering Amazon into logistics can hurt ups or FedEx. Simply not enough lift no matter who comes in to the play.
JMO

With the amount of Amazon Fulfillment Centers going up, did you think about majority of packages never touching an airplane like UPS? Able to reach the majority of the population with in two days by ground? UPS built the ground infrastructure first. Amazon is doing the same putting up million square foot centers around the country.

Amazon's North American sales increased 25.2% in 2016. Meanwhile, the U.S. Census Bureau has been tracking e-commerce sales growth at around 15.5% through the first three quarters of 2016.
Put another way, despite its size, Amazon continues to take share of the growing e-commerce market, and competitors (Walmart) are struggling to keep up.

I would say that no competitor of Amazon would use Amazon. Finding out a lot of their competitors are using their cloud based servers along with Fed Ex.

I'm also seeing FDX Ground centers going up right beside new Amazon centers. Don't know what to make of that one.

Tango Uniform
03-12-2018, 02:20 PM
LOL

Depends on which ones, and how long they were at Brown.

There might be hope for them ...


:D Exactly!!! I think most of the good ones left back in 1999 when the IPO hit. The ones left are bean counter drones that stripped away the identity of UPS. Remember these days? This ship sailed :D https://www.youtube.com/watch?v=Mk8BhQEuzyI

brownie
03-12-2018, 02:55 PM
With the amount of Amazon Fulfillment Centers going up, did you think about majority of packages never touching an airplane like UPS? Able to reach the majority of the population with in two days by ground? UPS built the ground infrastructure first. Amazon is doing the same putting up million square foot centers around the country.

Amazon's North American sales increased 25.2% in 2016. Meanwhile, the U.S. Census Bureau has been tracking e-commerce sales growth at around 15.5% through the first three quarters of 2016.
Put another way, despite its size, Amazon continues to take share of the growing e-commerce market, and competitors (Walmart) are struggling to keep up.

I would say that no competitor of Amazon would use Amazon. Finding out a lot of their competitors are using their cloud based servers along with Fed Ex.

I'm also seeing FDX Ground centers going up right beside new Amazon centers. Don't know what to make of that one.

I agree as far as fulfilment centers going that's to feed the low yield stuff th at don't need to touch planes. It costs Amazon lots a money for prime 2 day when shipping has to go on an airplane however cargo and high volume which accounts for 65% of us goods needs to be brought in by ships and planes and be distributed . Companies like Alibaba with bigger reach world wide than Amazon are starting to take market share and that will be a game changer now how ups and FedEx will be handling all this change it's a story to watch by all of us but there bas to be a reason why Brown & Purple investing over 12 Billion over next few years upgrading and buying new infrastructures.

whalesurfer
03-12-2018, 03:34 PM
Anybody notice the rebranding of Fed Ex Ground? FDX ground switching to FDX Express color scheme. They are building hubs and centers which some are even connected between express and ground. FDX is also building hubs next too Amazon Fullfillment centers.
...

Maybe they’re just preparing for a combined future? ;)

“Prime On Time”, new callsign - PrimEx.
_____

Should Amazon Just Buy FedEx?
Teresa Rivas Nov. 17, 2017 10:08 a.m. ET

While Amazon (AMZN) has made two-day and even two-hour order fulfillment a reality, it still faces a problem with shipping, along with every other retailer: It doesn't control the "last mile" delivery to consumers, Loop Capital's Anthony Chukumba and Rick Paterson write. Their solution: Buy FedEx (FDX).

The issue is that Amazon has to rely on third parties when it comes to delivery and returns, and Chuckumba and Paterson write that FedEx and UPS (UPS) naturally want to take "their pound of flesh" from the process, in this case in the form of margin.

Yet doing so, while a thorn in Amazon's side, is becoming more important to UPS and FedEx, as business-to-consumer shipments, which are low margin, have reached a "critical mass," that's straining their margins and budgets--which hasn't gone unnoticed by shareholders, who want price increases.

This is playing out agains a broader backdrop of inefficiencies in the system that make a deal more appealing:

Finally, there are also inherent cost inefficiencies in the broader system driven by the lack of coordination and competing interests between the sellers and shippers that could be eliminated by bringing them under one roof. Amazon's options are to: 1) do nothing (unlikely); 2) build its own last mile network (drones are no silver bullet); or 3) buy. In this report we discuss all three options and focus on FedEx for the buy option, which we regard as the better fit.
That said, they don't think that an Amazon bid for FedEx is probable in the near-term (or maybe even ever), given Amazon's focus on expanding into international markets, developing AI via Alexa, and retooling its video strategy, but they think it's "food for thought" as the company seeks new solutions for the last mile problem.

Amazon, FedEx, and UPS are all down about 0.3% in recent trading.

https://www.barrons.com/articles/should-amazon-just-buy-fedex-1510931336

Tango Uniform
03-12-2018, 03:39 PM
Maybe they’re just preparing for a combined future? ;)

_____

Should Amazon Just Buy FedEx?
Teresa Rivas Nov. 17, 2017 10:08 a.m. ET

While Amazon (AMZN) has made two-day and even two-hour order fulfillment a reality, it still faces a problem with shipping, along with every other retailer: It doesn't control the "last mile" delivery to consumers, Loop Capital's Anthony Chukumba and Rick Paterson write. Their solution: Buy FedEx (FDX).

The issue is that Amazon has to rely on third parties when it comes to delivery and returns, and Chuckumba and Paterson write that FedEx and UPS (UPS) naturally want to take "their pound of flesh" from the process, in this case in the form of margin.

Yet doing so, while a thorn in Amazon's side, is becoming more important to UPS and FedEx, as business-to-consumer shipments, which are low margin, have reached a "critical mass," that's straining their margins and budgets--which hasn't gone unnoticed by shareholders, who want price increases.

This is playing out agains a broader backdrop of inefficiencies in the system that make a deal more appealing:

Finally, there are also inherent cost inefficiencies in the broader system driven by the lack of coordination and competing interests between the sellers and shippers that could be eliminated by bringing them under one roof. Amazon's options are to: 1) do nothing (unlikely); 2) build its own last mile network (drones are no silver bullet); or 3) buy. In this report we discuss all three options and focus on FedEx for the buy option, which we regard as the better fit.
That said, they don't think that an Amazon bid for FedEx is probable in the near-term (or maybe even ever), given Amazon's focus on expanding into international markets, developing AI via Alexa, and retooling its video strategy, but they think it's "food for thought" as the company seeks new solutions for the last mile problem.

Amazon, FedEx, and UPS are all down about 0.3% in recent trading.

https://www.barrons.com/articles/should-amazon-just-buy-fedex-1510931336

The only union that FDX has on property is the pilots too.... I think it’s a stretch but stranger things have happened.

Spike from flyi
03-15-2018, 01:25 PM
Perhaps Bezos has overplayed his hand:

https://www.theguardian.com/technology/2018/mar/15/not-welcome-here-amazon-faces-growing-resistance-to-its-second-home

atpcliff
03-20-2018, 08:10 AM
from Bloomberg:
"Airbus Weighs New A330 Cargo Model, Spurred by Amazon"

https://www.bloomberg.com/news/articles/2018-03-19/airbus-is-said-to-weigh-new-a330-cargo-model-spurred-by-amazon

Amazon plans an initial fleet of 40 used 767 freighters for its Prime Air fleet, and has discussed ordering airplanes with Boeing in the past. The $1.5 billion air hub the company is plotting to build near Cincinnati suggests it will eventually have a far larger operation.

BlueSkies88
03-20-2018, 10:17 AM
https://www.bloomberg.com/news/articles/2018-03-19/airbus-is-said-to-weigh-new-a330-cargo-model-spurred-by-amazon

I heard they’re giving ATI pilots a 1% discount and a free prime pilot bag tag for the type rating of the A330 at AIRBUS training center in Miami.

#pilotpaymatters
#makepilotpaygreatagain

BlueSkies88
05-11-2018, 02:42 PM
https://m.youtube.com/watch?v=bYt9I2Znrik

https://cargofacts.com/just-what-is-amazon-carrying-on-its-prime-planes-video/

midnightshuttle
05-13-2018, 09:03 AM
https://www.bloomberg.com/news/articles/2018-03-19/airbus-is-said-to-weigh-new-a330-cargo-model-spurred-by-amazon

I heard they’re giving ATI pilots a 1% discount and a free prime pilot bag tag for the type rating of the A330 at AIRBUS training center in Miami.

#pilotpaymatters
#makepilotpaygreatagain

Amazon bag tag

FYI, the last one I saw had an old “hope and change” sticker on the kit bag

WE ALL know how that went down.

PurpleToolBox
05-20-2018, 02:55 PM
I am employed by FedEx. Yes, I am long term worried about Amazon.



Many people think FedEx airplanes are filled with eCommerce packages. During peak, maybe. Day to day, no. When I go to the back and I see whats on the airplanes I see bulk items, palletized items, large shipments of items between businesses, and hazmat.



Unless Amazon chooses to get into this space with their business to business model, yes Amazon will become a threat to UPS and FDX. However, if they're going to remain in the eCommerce space, I don't see them competing much with UPS and FDX, rather trying to build out their own shipping system to lower their shipping costs as much as possible.


What I find interesting is that Amazon noted service failures on FDX and UPS as the reason why they started their own shipping service. Why does Amazon think they're not susceptible to the same service failures as FDX and UPS? When the weather gets bad, Amazon will have the same issues.


Also, FDX has installed electronic vision and HUDs in their aircraft whereas Amazon has not. So technically FDX airplanes have a better chance getting into airports with bad weather.



How all of this plays out remains to be seen. But yes, Amazon is a threat and if Smith is really not concerned, then FDXers have a big problem. But just as he said FedEx must be looking at drones and automated technology because of his commitment to share holders etc.etc., he is watching and looking at Amazon.

nitefr8dog
05-21-2018, 04:14 AM
I am employed by FedEx. Yes, I am long term worried about Amazon.



Many people think FedEx airplanes are filled with eCommerce packages. During peak, maybe. Day to day, no. When I go to the back and I see whats on the airplanes I see bulk items, palletized items, large shipments of items between businesses, and hazmat.



Unless Amazon chooses to get into this space with their business to business model, yes Amazon will become a threat to UPS and FDX. However, if they're going to remain in the eCommerce space, I don't see them competing much with UPS and FDX, rather trying to build out their own shipping system to lower their shipping costs as much as possible.


What I find interesting is that Amazon noted service failures on FDX and UPS as the reason why they started their own shipping service. Why does Amazon think they're not susceptible to the same service failures as FDX and UPS? When the weather gets bad, Amazon will have the same issues.


Also, FDX has installed electronic vision and HUDs in their aircraft whereas Amazon has not. So technically FDX airplanes have a better chance getting into airports with bad weather.



How all of this plays out remains to be seen. But yes, Amazon is a threat and if Smith is really not concerned, then FDXers have a big problem. But just as he said FedEx must be looking at drones and automated technology because of his commitment to share holders etc.etc., he is watching and looking at Amazon.

The real issue why Amazon decided to reduce reliance on FedEx/UPS started not only because of weather.....but saturation at peak. When this happened at peak Fedex and UPS made a decision to only move Fedex and UPS freight and push Amazon freight off into the weeds. Weather may have played a part in that...but the decision to move only their branded freight was the catalyst for Amazon to start moving their own freight via aircraft and invest in 2 airlines. Also with domestic Amazon freight ...electronic vision and HUDs would be rarely used and would not help at all for landing on a snow/ice covered runway or severe weather over the airport.

BoilerUP
05-21-2018, 06:49 AM
I’ve read on here (one of the ATI/ABX/Amazon threads) that many Prime Air 767s are regularly flying with only 15-20k payload.

nitefr8dog
05-21-2018, 07:03 AM
I’ve read on here (one of the ATI/ABX/Amazon threads) that many Prime Air 767s are regularly flying with only 15-20k payload.
I think that could verywell be true.....the majority of the packages have bulk but not much weight. Also until the sort center in CVG is built Amazon is still using many other sources to move their boxes.

b707guy
05-21-2018, 02:25 PM
They have always kept their cards very close to their chest. Outside of peak, and since its inception, I can count on maybe two appendages (digitally-equipped ones, that is!) the number of times the load called for a -300. During peak is another matter. But either way, much of the actual "load" is box-enclosed sailboat fuel.


The service was kicked off with immediate access to a bunch of -200s, and the Prime-painted -300s trickled on as they became/become available. Even though most of it can be done with -200s most of the year, the very presence of a still-growing fleet of painted -300s pretty much points to a plan for this to be around for a while, with room to grow. Will it eclipse brown or purple? Probably not any time soon, or at any sort of rate that would put either of them in jeopardy, beyond slower potential growth (absent Prime) versus the economy.

KC10 FATboy
05-22-2018, 02:01 PM
The real issue why Amazon decided to reduce reliance on FedEx/UPS started not only because of weather.....but saturation at peak. When this happened at peak Fedex and UPS made a decision to only move Fedex and UPS freight and push Amazon freight off into the weeds. Weather may have played a part in that...but the decision to move only their branded freight was the catalyst for Amazon to start moving their own freight via aircraft and invest in 2 airlines. Also with domestic Amazon freight ...electronic vision and HUDs would be rarely used and would not help at all for landing on a snow/ice covered runway or severe weather over the airport.

The problem is Amazon wanted way more space than what FedEx could provide. Then the wanted X number of airplanes dedicated solely to Amazon peak. FedEx didn’t have a spare X of airplanes to dedicate to Amazon for only peak.

Then — and this is key — Amazon sold well above what they contracted for and the blamed FedEx and UPS for not being able to deliver. That’s a bunch of BS.

Even as of last year I saw Amazon commercials late on the 23rd guaranteeing delivery by Christmas. Impossible.

Amazon promised too much to too many people and then sold out FedEx and UPS. While both had some service problems, FedEx’s was very minor, Amazon three then under the bus.

The problem is you can’t staff an airline only for peak. When peak comes, there isn’t enough planes and crews available.

When I worked at previous company, CVG ran out of deicing fluid twice. It will be interesting to see who Amazon blames when CVG gets weathered out during the holidays.

nitefr8dog
05-23-2018, 07:21 AM
The problem is Amazon wanted way more space than what FedEx could provide. Then the wanted X number of airplanes dedicated solely to Amazon peak. FedEx didn’t have a spare X of airplanes to dedicate to Amazon for only peak.

Then — and this is key — Amazon sold well above what they contracted for and the blamed FedEx and UPS for not being able to deliver. That’s a bunch of BS.

Even as of last year I saw Amazon commercials late on the 23rd guaranteeing delivery by Christmas. Impossible.

Amazon promised too much to too many people and then sold out FedEx and UPS. While both had some service problems, FedEx’s was very minor, Amazon three then under the bus.

The problem is you can’t staff an airline only for peak. When peak comes, there isn’t enough planes and crews available.

When I worked at previous company, CVG ran out of deicing fluid twice. It will be interesting to see who Amazon blames when CVG gets weathered out during the holidays.
What you just said is very reason Amazon is in the process of having their own dedicated airline. Going forward with peak being just that....any increase in peak freight from Amazon would be left behind. As you pointed out...an airline cannot staff for only peak. Likewise Amazon or anybody else for that matter cannot pay peak shipping rates all year to guarantee space available at peak. However flying a 300 1/2 to 3/4 full until peak costs very little more than a full 200 yr rd. And the decision to move the freight after a delay is not put in behind anyone else's. Like what happened in the past. The Amazon freight was up to 2 weeks late. Also it was not just the bump in Amazon at peak...by their own admission UPS and Federal had more freight then expected.

dynap09
05-23-2018, 09:08 AM
The other part here is that Amazon seems to be focusing on getting product to customers in a timely way as a competitive advantage of theirs in the online e-commerce space. They can't differentiate with just UPS as easily.

Shipping seems to be an area Bezos is hooked into (the whole prime membership started with shipping as a hook). Lockers, doorbells, car trunks, they are putting a fair bit of effort into just getting packages to people.

Macjet
05-24-2018, 04:17 AM
My wife and I were talking about it the other day. We decided that we were going to cancel our prime membership and stop shopping amazon altogether. We came to the conclusion that amazon is putting to many other businesses out of business and I’d rather shop local even if it cost me a little bit more.

You're definitely in the minority. I don't know anyone (my country parents included) that aren't Prime members. TV. Shopping. Huge discounts. Local shop wanted $92 for my dryer heating element. Amazon was $22 and delivered the next day. Same OEM part. Savings like that once every three weeks and my Prime membership is paying me money hand over fist.

As a consumer I loathe UPS and go out of my way from having anything shipped by them. As a fellow aviator my advice would be to stop worrying about Amazon and keep an eye on the single pilot/autonomous push that seems to be coming from the board room, stock holders, and the FAA. If that elephant finds its way into your flight deck it'll only be a matter of time before its in mine as well.

nonrev dad
05-24-2018, 05:23 AM
Quite possibly the story is not over when it comes to the last mile. In our zip code and adjacent zip codes Postal has a new policy for their rural carriers, no deliveries to the door will be provided if the carrier is required to back their vehicle up in order to make the delivery. You will receive a notice that your parcel is available for pick up during Postal's business hours at your local P.O. Advantage Amazon...lost!

If this policy spreads, and if anything comes of Trump's declarations that Postal needs to charge Amazon more, then who knows who will get the last mile.

And the big Brown parcel cars... no problem taking it to the door!

dynap09
05-24-2018, 06:10 AM
Advantage Amazon...lost!


If USPS takes rates way up for the small package last mile stuff shippers are using (it's Amazon and plenty of others) this will be advantage amazon big time.

Most other shippers cannot afford to solve last mile, they need to be able to add their packages to existing delivery networks. In urban areas, amazon is *already* running their own contracted deliveries - they have that much volume (ONE seller running trucks).

USPS rates go above their own cost to deliver - everyone else is screwed and advantage amazon again, it'll become cost effective to expand their own delivery footprint.

Trail Blazer
05-24-2018, 07:11 AM
You're definitely in the minority. I don't know anyone (my country parents included) that aren't Prime members. TV. Shopping. Huge discounts. Local shop wanted $92 for my dryer heating element. Amazon was $22 and delivered the next day. Same OEM part. Savings like that once every three weeks and my Prime membership is paying me money hand over fist.

As a consumer I loathe UPS and go out of my way from having anything shipped by them. As a fellow aviator my advice would be to stop worrying about Amazon and keep an eye on the single pilot/autonomous push that seems to be coming from the board room, stock holders, and the FAA. If that elephant finds its way into your flight deck it'll only be a matter of time before its in mine as well.

I disagree Macjet, I stopped using Amazon 3 years ago as I saw the disruption they are causing local retailers/other online retailers and their poor treatment of employees. Amazon is the king of automation/outsourcing and wants to take over every business. I have very few friends left using Amazon, there is an anti-Amazon movement going on. Also, rarely does Amazon offer the lowest price. You don't have to shop local, just check google shopping sometime for other online retailers with better pricing.

Whale Driver
05-24-2018, 11:47 AM
……………………………………. rarely does Amazon offer the lowest price. …………………………………………………...

Not true. There are many apps that install in your browser such as Wikibuy, that automatically checks the web for cheaper options in real-time. Amazon is the cheapest end cost solution very often and is almost always the cheapest option to be delivered in two days or less. YMMV.

mrvmo
05-24-2018, 06:00 PM
Not true. There are many apps that install in your browser such as Wikibuy, that automatically checks the web for cheaper options in real-time. Amazon is the cheapest end cost solution very often and is almost always the cheapest option to be delivered in two days or less. YMMV.

Disagree....most everything is cheaper elsewhere....and with free shipping. 90% of the time what you are looking for is cheaper on eBay. What u may not get thru free shipping on eBay is guaranteed 2 day service....but more times than not it’s at ur door in 2-3 days. If it things were cheaper on Amazon I’d be buying on Amazon as I am an extreme cheap a$$.

howardhughes8
05-24-2018, 07:54 PM
Disagree....most everything is cheaper elsewhere....and with free shipping. 90% of the time what you are looking for is cheaper on eBay. What u may not get thru free shipping on eBay is guaranteed 2 day service....but more times than not it’s at ur door in 2-3 days. If it things were cheaper on Amazon I’d be buying on Amazon as I am an extreme cheap a$$.



Shipping is not free. It is $119/yr.

mrvmo
05-24-2018, 08:02 PM
Shipping is not free. It is $119/yr.

Precisely.....

KC10 FATboy
05-24-2018, 10:01 PM
Shipping costs more than $119 per year. You’re paying for it elsewhere.

I don’t use Amazon because of the huge conterfiet problem Amazon products have (which they seem to ignore) and/or not really knowing who you are buying from.

nitefr8dog
05-25-2018, 08:19 AM
Shipping costs more than $119 per year. You’re paying for it elsewhere.

I don’t use Amazon because of the huge conterfiet problem Amazon products have (which they seem to ignore) and/or not really knowing who you are buying from.
I use both Amazon and EBay often...I have had just as many problems with EBay as Amazon or more. And very little is shipped free. Amazon makes most returns painless..Ebay is a nightmare.

BoilerUP
05-25-2018, 08:50 AM
I have found stuff cheaper than Amazon recently from Wal-Mart, Best Buy, Target, Cabelas and Tractor Supply.

I would have to *gasp* actually get off my behind and *sigh* drive to the store to get it, though.

nitefr8dog
05-25-2018, 09:14 AM
I have found stuff cheaper than Amazon recently from Wal-Mart, Best Buy, Target, Cabelas and Tractor Supply.

I would have to *gasp* actually get off my behind and *sigh* drive to the store to get it, though.

I do have to agree to a point....I order stuff from Wal-Mart and go to the store to pick it up... fairly painless.

G550Guy
05-25-2018, 11:37 AM
I have found stuff cheaper than Amazon recently from Wal-Mart, Best Buy, Target, Cabelas and Tractor Supply.



Don’t forget “Merica’s” most awesome store....

COSTCO.




Sent from my iPhone using Tapatalk

midnightshuttle
05-25-2018, 11:57 AM
AMAZON will take over the world with LOW paid pilots flying airbuses that they pull out of the garbage and paint.

Brown and Purple will be overrun by a co with the 3500hr 75K per year regional transplants flying the bus in 5-7yrs

BlueSkies88
05-30-2018, 10:58 AM
https://www.usatoday.com/story/tech/talkingtech/2018/05/30/drag-queens-pilots-activists-protest-amazon-annual-meeting/653678002/

Look at the picture of the pilots in the article above, they have a sign of ABX, Atlas & Southern...but the ATI name is nowhere to be found.
:D
Why would that be?????

nitefr8dog
05-30-2018, 11:05 AM
https://www.usatoday.com/story/tech/talkingtech/2018/05/30/drag-queens-pilots-activists-protest-amazon-annual-meeting/653678002/

Look at the picture of the pilots in the article above, they have a sign of ABX, Atlas & Southern...but the ATI name is nowhere to be found.
:D
Why would that be?????
Because the ATI pilots are a bunch of sheep?

BlueSkies88
05-30-2018, 11:13 AM
Because the ATI pilots are a bunch of sheep?

For a quick minute I thought they were the drag queens, but after close observation I didn’t see any bag tags.

WingOffLight
05-30-2018, 11:28 AM
I’ve read on here (one of the ATI/ABX/Amazon threads) that many Prime Air 767s are regularly flying with only 15-20k payload.

Thats why ATSG is already pushing the 321’s to Amazon they are moving the cert process now.

Dont believe Amazon is all that serious on the Air side. The “hub” hasnt broke ground. No more growth. It was a mere threat to the big boys as a negotiating tactic. Look at the results: ups and fedex guys on here worried of the future.

It worked

Precontact
05-30-2018, 11:34 AM
Heard that FedEx views Amazon as a competitor while UPS views them as a customer. This has dramatically driven up UPS’s daily volume. 2DA (afternoon) volume levels are really high these days.

BlueSkies88
06-09-2018, 07:12 AM
https://airlinegeeks.com/2018/06/08/the-cost-of-free-shipping-cargo-pilots-claim-amazon-is-driving-down-air-cargo-industry-standards/

whalesurfer
06-09-2018, 07:53 AM
Heard that FedEx views Amazon as a competitor while UPS views them as a customer. This has dramatically driven up UPS’s daily volume. 2DA (afternoon) volume levels are really high these days.

Hmm.. I think it might be the other way around.

Amazon views ups as a customer. ..and maybe they view fedex as a future takeover target? Who knows.. :confused:

PrimeAir Resistance is Futile

atpcliff
06-09-2018, 03:13 PM
I have found stuff cheaper than Amazon recently from Wal-Mart, Best Buy, Target, Cabelas and Tractor Supply.

I would have to *gasp* actually get off my behind and *sigh* drive to the store to get it, though.

If you want to compare prices, you need to figure your costs of driving to get your stuff. It's expensive to drive, and very highly subsidized by us, the taxpayers, via the US gov't. That keeps your personal costs way down.

atpcliff
06-09-2018, 03:14 PM
AMAZON will take over the world with LOW paid pilots flying airbuses that they pull out of the garbage and paint.

Brown and Purple will be overrun by a co with the 3500hr 75K per year regional transplants flying the bus in 5-7yrs

Why would a regional pilot fly for amazon at that rate, when they can go almost anywhere else and get much higher pay???

BoilerUP
06-09-2018, 03:22 PM
If you want to compare prices, you need to figure your costs of driving to get your stuff. It's expensive to drive, and very highly subsidized by us, the taxpayers, via the US gov't. That keeps your personal costs way down.


Opportunity cost of getting your stuff now vs. waiting.

Also, we all pay per-gallon fuel excise taxes into the highway trust find...

atpcliff
06-09-2018, 05:02 PM
Opportunity cost of getting your stuff now vs. waiting.

Also, we all pay per-gallon fuel excise taxes into the highway trust find...

The fuel taxes didn't cover the costs of the roads we used on day one. Now the gap is much worse.

wjcandee
06-09-2018, 05:28 PM
The fuel taxes didn't cover the costs of the roads we used on day one. Now the gap is much worse.

Here in NY, a huge percentage of the fuel taxes (and tolls) are diverted to fund discounted mass transit.



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