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View Full Version : ORD Seniority


KickedPancake
03-08-2018, 07:30 AM
First post...so treat me gently :).

Hypothetical situation - you want to be domiciled in Chicago and had an offer in hand from both American and United:

1. What is the relative seniority of the ORD domicile within each airline and

2. Best educated guess on which airline has the best opportunity for moving up the ranks of seniority at ORD most quickly.

Realize that part 2 is a bit of a "crystal ball" question but invite educated opinions. Even uneducated ones are welcome as long as they are funny.

Also realize that you might be only able to speak for one, not both of the companies wrt seniority but appreciate any info out there.

Thanks!


mainlineAF
03-08-2018, 07:41 AM
At AA ORD is one of the most senior bases. Also thereís been some recent news about ORD with regards to new terminal construction and from what i remember itís not favorable for AA.

sherpster
03-08-2018, 08:13 AM
Is United even running classes? I was in the pool there for almost a year before going to indoc so donít even count on going to class with United. America is running a class every two weeks


KickedPancake
03-08-2018, 08:18 AM
Not sure if United is running classes. The gouge on this site is that they will be hiring 450 in 2018. But that qualifies as rumor I guess.

Any chance ORD is so senior at AA that it might become junior shortly? I.E., is it so top heavy that it will be hit first and hardest when retirements start happening in earnest in a few years?

I have never looked at the airline online tools for pilots so I don't know how much visibility you have when you go online to bid. It might be an impossible question to answer.

KickedPancake
03-08-2018, 08:20 AM
Another one for MainlineAF...do you recall who the terminal expansion was favoring...if not American?

svergin
03-08-2018, 08:32 AM
At AA ORD is one of the most senior bases. Also thereís been some recent news about ORD with regards to new terminal construction and from what i remember itís not favorable for AA.

United is getting 50% more new gates in ORD than AA is. It is going to become a super hub again. They just re-banked to allow more connecting flights. Thatís the corporate plan.

ORDinary
03-08-2018, 11:47 AM
In the most recent bid at AA ORD 737 FO dropped somewhat from where it was. It now seems possible to make it there in about a year (that is only my guess). But it is a relatively senior base and will be for quite a while. With retirements even senior bases will have movement, though you may be on reserve longer there, or hold a worse line than more junior bases.

At United ORD was really junior in the past few years. I know people who got it almost immediately. But I don't know what their hiring looks like right now.

The dispute between AA and UAL at ORD was over 5 future gates in the proposed expansion. The only way that will have a large effect on the pilots is if AA goes nuclear and massively shrinks at ORD in response. I have no idea how likely or unlikely that is, but for now AA is refusing to sign onto expansion plans, at least according to a local newspaper article here (I have no inside knowledge).

http://www.chicagotribune.com/news/local/politics/ct-met-ohare-airport-rahm-emanuel-american-airlines-20180228-story.html

Otterbox
03-08-2018, 11:54 AM
First post...so treat me gently :).

Hypothetical situation - you want to be domiciled in Chicago and had an offer in hand from both American and United:

1. What is the relative seniority of the ORD domicile within each airline and

2. Best educated guess on which airline has the best opportunity for moving up the ranks of seniority at ORD most quickly.

Realize that part 2 is a bit of a "crystal ball" question but invite educated opinions. Even uneducated ones are welcome as long as they are funny.

Also realize that you might be only able to speak for one, not both of the companies wrt seniority but appreciate any info out there.

Thanks!

Easy... take the first class date offered, then go to United when it has a class for you.

svergin
03-08-2018, 12:28 PM
In the most recent bid at AA ORD 737 FO dropped somewhat from where it was. It now seems possible to make it there in about a year (that is only my guess). But it is a relatively senior base and will be for quite a while. With retirements even senior bases will have movement, though you may be on reserve longer there, or hold a worse line than more junior bases.

At United ORD was really junior in the past few years. I know people who got it almost immediately. But I don't know what their hiring looks like right now.

The dispute between AA and UAL at ORD was over 5 future gates in the proposed expansion. The only way that will have a large effect on the pilots is if AA goes nuclear and massively shrinks at ORD in response. I have no idea how likely or unlikely that is, but for now AA is refusing to sign onto expansion plans, at least according to a local newspaper article here (I have no inside knowledge).

Emanuel vows to push ahead on $8.5B O'Hare expansion as American Airlines decries 'secret deal' - Chicago Tribune (http://www.chicagotribune.com/news/local/politics/ct-met-ohare-airport-rahm-emanuel-american-airlines-20180228-story.html)

Those 5 ďfuture gatesĒ represent the 5 gates American added, and United is merely getting 5 additional gates as well. Its like American is saying ďWe got our 5 gates, but we donít want United to get any moreĒ. American hasnít signed the deal, so they may end up abandoning ORD all together.

Sliceback
03-08-2018, 12:45 PM
If you want to live in Chicago, and have an offer from UA and AA, you should pick UA.

Bigger base, I think they have more foreign destinations (w/b flying), and the city of Chicago just favored UA by strengthening UA while weakening AA.

Sliceback
03-08-2018, 01:04 PM
Those 5 ďfuture gatesĒ represent the 5 gates American added, and United is merely getting 5 additional gates as well. Its like American is saying ďWe got our 5 gates, but we donít want United to get any moreĒ. American hasnít signed the deal, so they may end up abandoning ORD all together.

The fine print said AA paid for their five gates and not the city. Part of an attempt to regain gates (2) the DOJ made AA give up in the 2013 merger settlement.

KickedPancake
03-08-2018, 01:32 PM
Gents, that was exactly the feedback I was looking for. Thanks!

svergin
03-08-2018, 03:23 PM
The fine print said AA paid for their five gates and not the city. Part of an attempt to regain gates (2) the DOJ made AA give up in the 2013 merger settlement.

Right. They had to give them up for the merger, and now they want them back. Sorry. It is what it is. United getting 5 gates just evens the score, regardless who pays for them. Iím sure United would by most of Americanís gates in ORD, LAX, SFO, DEN, IAD, IAH and EWR.

89Pistons
03-08-2018, 08:17 PM
Easy... take the first class date offered, then go to United when it has a class for you.

I see what you did there. Good one.

Frip
03-09-2018, 05:04 AM
Any chance ORD is so senior at AA that it might become junior shortly? I.E., is it so top heavy that it will be hit first and hardest when retirements start happening in earnest in a few years?


That does happen... Witness LAX over the last couple of years.
Whether it will or not is more difficult to predict, ie; what is the backlog of people who would rather commute to ORD than to wherever they are commuting to now?

There are however signs that it may be beginning to happen at ORD.

Bid what you want. Take the first class offered. If that is AA then by the time UAL calls you'll have a decent idea what to do.

LuckyNow
03-12-2018, 07:35 PM
ORD doesnít have nearly the retirements of some of the other bases. Eventually, in 5 or 6 years a ton of guys will start falling off of the top. This last bid run was very good for getting new people into ORD, but prior to that it had been 2 years since any significant numbers were awarded ORD. I canít begin to speculate if future bids will see more movement into here.

As it sits now, seemingly the worst case scenario would be a couple of years to get ORD and it may turn out better than that. They only sure thing here is that if the winters donít kill you, the taxes will make you wish it had.

meyers9163
03-13-2018, 09:59 AM
ORD doesnít have nearly the retirements of some of the other bases. Eventually, in 5 or 6 years a ton of guys will start falling off of the top. This last bid run was very good for getting new people into ORD, but prior to that it had been 2 years since any significant numbers were awarded ORD. I canít begin to speculate if future bids will see more movement into here.

As it sits now, seemingly the worst case scenario would be a couple of years to get ORD and it may turn out better than that. They only sure thing here is that if the winters donít kill you, the taxes will make you wish it had.

Whatís being left out here is the complete closure of the 767 pilot base. That wasnít planned. Add that to it and FOS of the pilots you had two huge events causing ORD stagnation and backwards movement. Further the 777 closure announcement happened.

With that as soon as the 767 stopped closing we saw movement again into ord like they did before the FOS where pilots got ORD relatively quickly. This last bid has guys not off probation into ORD. It in my opinion only can get better and not worse. Maybe not the LUS retirements but many people eventually move away from ORD as kids graduate etc. Happens more and more it seems which then also brings movement.

Al Czervik
03-13-2018, 11:27 AM
Whatís being left out here is the complete closure of the 767 pilot base. That wasnít planned. Add that to it and FOS of the pilots you had two huge events causing ORD stagnation and backwards movement. Further the 777 closure announcement happened.

With that as soon as the 767 stopped closing we saw movement again into ord like they did before the FOS where pilots got ORD relatively quickly. This last bid has guys not off probation into ORD. It in my opinion only can get better and not worse. Maybe not the LUS retirements but many people eventually move away from ORD as kids graduate etc. Happens more and more it seems which then also brings movement.

People donít want to pay IL taxes after the kids leave?

meyers9163
03-13-2018, 04:34 PM
People donít want to pay IL taxes after the kids leave?

Haha right. Or even Wisconsin and MN. Spoken with a lot once kids are gone they are headed for a move. ORD I think will see movement. Just had bad luck with FOS, 767 base closure and 777 (although not finalized yet).