Airline Pilot Forums

Airline Pilot Forums was designed to be a community where working airline pilots can share ideas and information about the aviation field. In the forum you will find information about major and regional airline carriers, career training, interview and job seeker help, finance, and living the airline pilot lifestyle.




View Full Version : Picket May 17th, 2018


BeatNavy
04-24-2018, 08:39 AM
See you guys there!


Bluedriver
04-24-2018, 09:40 AM
Agree, see you there!

The701Express
04-24-2018, 09:44 AM
See you guys there!
Already registered. I'm looking forward to walking alongside you all again!

Everyone needs to get in touch with as many friends here as possible and encourage them to turn out for this picket. We set a high bar with the first picket. Now we need to follow through with another strong showing to demonstrate our discontentment and anger not just to management but to the shareholders as well.


biigD
04-24-2018, 09:46 AM
Is this one open to anyone? Iím sure Iíll get an email from my union if it is, but was curious ahead of time.

Itíd be great to come up and show some support!

hilltopflyer
04-24-2018, 10:06 AM
Have they set a time yet?

aldonite7667
04-24-2018, 10:21 AM
Is this one open to anyone? Iím sure Iíll get an email from my union if it is, but was curious ahead of time.

Itíd be great to come up and show some support!


I hope so! And thank you!

Rickce7
04-24-2018, 11:57 AM
Is this one open to anyone? Iím sure Iíll get an email from my union if it is, but was curious ahead of time.

Itíd be great to come up and show some support!
It would be awesome to have some support from Big D and anyone else!

say again
04-24-2018, 12:00 PM
Rearranging my schedule now.

AYLflyer
04-24-2018, 12:11 PM
Hoping it's in the AM???

I have a trip that starts mid afternoon in BOS. I missed the first one because I was flying, I sure as hell don't want to miss this one.

Combatcraig
04-24-2018, 12:28 PM
Canít wait! 2nd battle star!

RiddleEagle18
04-24-2018, 12:29 PM
First one I can make! Should be fun.


Sent from my iPhone using Tapatalk

Bozo the pilot
04-24-2018, 12:55 PM
First one I can make! Should be fun.


Sent from my iPhone using Tapatalk

Me too- see you there guys.

PasserOGas
04-24-2018, 04:15 PM
3 weeks notice? How are people supposed to bid this off?

nuball5
04-24-2018, 04:26 PM
3 weeks notice? How are people supposed to bid this off?

Yeah that left me scratching my head too. This easily could've been planned three weeks ago prior to May bidding I would think. Getting half of the 700 we got last time will be a success.

hilltopflyer
04-24-2018, 04:49 PM
Yeah that left me scratching my head too. This easily could've been planned three weeks ago prior to May bidding I would think. Getting half of the 700 we got last time will be a success.

Yep I had that day off and already bought tickets on southwest for vacation. Bought them last week.... frustrating

CanoeBum
04-24-2018, 05:03 PM
See you hosers there again!

Bluedriver
04-24-2018, 09:31 PM
I have a theory, but I'll keep it private for now. Anyway, it will be a success even if a few less show up, short notice and all.

The ball is in the company's court now, they CAN avoid this next picket entirely if they close this out at the next meeting.

schwa
04-25-2018, 04:13 AM
I have a theory, but I'll keep it private for now. Anyway, it will be a success even if a few less show up, short notice and all.

The ball is in the company's court now, they CAN avoid this next picket entirely if they close this out at the next meeting.

Is your theory that this announcement is more just posturing for the troops, and that this picket won't actually be necessary because they'll come to an agreement, which is why they announced at a time when people couldn't bid it off?

hyperboy
04-25-2018, 04:26 AM
Is your theory that this announcement is more just posturing for the troops, and that this picket won't actually be necessary because they'll come to an agreement, which is why they announced at a time when people couldn't bid it off?

A picketing event can come at any time. No need to read into it.

Bozo the pilot
04-25-2018, 04:27 AM
A picketing event can come at any time. No need to read into it.

There better be more strategy than that HB:rolleyes:

CaptCoolHand
04-25-2018, 05:02 AM
There better be more strategy than that HB:rolleyes:

Actually Hyper is right.

And there's a lot more to it than that.

Hope to see ya all there again if you can make it!!

Bozo the pilot
04-25-2018, 05:41 AM
Actually Hyper is right.

And there's a lot more to it than that.

Hope to see ya all there again if you can make it!!

Wait..So Im right too cch? Please say yes;)

SmitteyB
04-25-2018, 05:49 AM
Iíll be there.

Arenít the shareholder meetings now done via Web conference? Meaning no shareholders will actually see us picketing?

Softpayman
04-25-2018, 05:57 AM
Iíll be there.

Arenít the shareholder meetings now done via Web conference? Meaning no shareholders will actually see us picketing?

Not critically important and certainly understood when planning.

Any news coming from that day, be it an expansion of service to Europe or a large order will have a tag on the article mentioning hundreds of JB pilots were also out picketing. It sours their milk.

capt707
04-25-2018, 06:07 AM
Iíll be there.

Arenít the shareholder meetings now done via Web conference? Meaning no shareholders will actually see us picketing?

Yes, it is a "virtual" conference.

CaptCoolHand
04-25-2018, 06:18 AM
Wait..So Im right too cch? Please say yes;)

Of course you are buddy! 😆

Flytolive
04-25-2018, 06:20 AM
Can someone post all the details of when, where, uniform, etc. so those of us who can make it can try to attend? Thanks.

Tom a Hawk
04-25-2018, 06:24 AM
Can someone post all the details of when, where, uniform, etc. so those of us who can make it can try to attend? Thanks.

When the union gives us that info weíll pass it on. The first time they asked for it to be just B6 pilots, dunno if theyíll do that again

Bluedriver
04-25-2018, 07:39 AM
Is your theory that this announcement is more just posturing for the troops, and that this picket won't actually be necessary because they'll come to an agreement, which is why they announced at a time when people couldn't bid it off?

As I said, I will keep my opinion to myself at this time, but on any given day the exact same number of pilots are off work. There is a difference on the margins of many guys who would have bid it off intentionally, as some have voiced, but we are nearly *ALL* pretty damn mad right now so turnout among those that are already off work or those that trade should still be very good, myself included.

So yes, we may see a marginal reduction in turnout, which would mean that JB pilots may only achieve the 2nd highest proportion of it's group show up to a picketing event (we already had the highest, so now we will have the 1st & 2nd), which is still amazing.

Or, we may surpass the 1st one. As I said, we are nearly *ALL* mad as hell right now. A few exceptions of course, every airline has it's collosal morons.

May 17th will be a success.

Bozo the pilot
04-25-2018, 07:46 AM
As I said, I will keep my opinion to myself at this time, but on any given day the exact same number of pilots are off work. There is a difference on the margins of many guys who would have bid it off intentionally, as some have voiced, but we are nearly *ALL* pretty damn mad right now so turnout among those that are already off work or those that trade should still be very good, myself included.

So yes, we may see a marginal reduction in turnout, which would mean that JB pilots may only achieve the 2nd highest proportion of it's group show up to a picketing event (we already had the highest, so now we will have the 1st & 2nd), which is still amazing.

Or, we may surpass the 1st one. As I said, we are nearly *ALL* mad as hell right now. A few exceptions of course, every airline has it's collosal morons.

May 17th will be a success.

Yup- Mad as hell with management thinking the opposite. What are they smoking?

pilotpayne
04-25-2018, 08:56 AM
Wait..So Im right too cch? Please say yes;)

Without sounding sarcastic do you really think the union does not have a plan?

I read this from guys all the time (not talking about you)
They most certainly have a plan I would say to this point itís been well executed, right down to the last picket. We troll jetblue on Twitter, talking to Alpa guys our digital stuff is more than any other airline has done or ever thought about. Along with the traditional stuff I think itís amazing how some act like there isnít a plan.

Itís siege warfare guys. We donít just throw guys at the wall, you organize, suround them, dig tunnels, cut off supplyís, bring in heavy artillery, destroy the walls and finish off the city.

Step by step, mess up a step and you just get crushed.

Bozo the pilot
04-25-2018, 01:30 PM
Without sounding sarcastic do you really think the union does not have a plan?

I read this from guys all the time (not talking about you)
They most certainly have a plan I would say to this point itís been well executed, right down to the last picket. We troll jetblue on Twitter, talking to Alpa guys our digital stuff is more than any other airline has done or ever thought about. Along with the traditional stuff I think itís amazing how some act like there isnít a plan.

Itís siege warfare guys. We donít just throw guys at the wall, you organize, suround them, dig tunnels, cut off supplyís, bring in heavy artillery, destroy the walls and finish off the city.

Step by step, mess up a step and you just get crushed.
Im not the one who suggested they dont. I believe they do- it was Hb mentioning the "out of the blue" scenario.

PasserOGas
04-25-2018, 01:39 PM
Did you guys notice this little gem from the earnings call?

"Brandon Oglenski

Hi, good morning everyone and thanks for taking my question. Steve, can you remind us what the long-term CASM goal as we get out of 2019 and 2020 and whether or not you guys factored in the pilot deal for that goal.

Steve Priest

Good morning, Brandon and thanks for the question. We've talked about in terms of the strategy going forward. It's a zero to one CASM CAGR over the 2018 to 2020 period. So 2018, 2019, 2020. And it does indeed include a pilot deal."

WOW. So CASM will only go up a MAX of 1% with our contract. These guys are delusional. Get your striken' boots ready. SOP boys.

FUPM

PowderFinger
04-25-2018, 03:24 PM
Can’t wait! 2nd battle star!

Battle stars normally reference having honored the picket line during a strike.

In the union sense that is.

hyperboy
04-25-2018, 03:38 PM
Im not the one who suggested they dont. I believe they do- it was Hb mentioning the "out of the blue" scenario.

Out of the blue scenario? Do tell?:D

hyperboy
04-25-2018, 03:40 PM
Did you guys notice this little gem from the earnings call?

"Brandon Oglenski

Hi, good morning everyone and thanks for taking my question. Steve, can you remind us what the long-term CASM goal as we get out of 2019 and 2020 and whether or not you guys factored in the pilot deal for that goal.

Steve Priest

Good morning, Brandon and thanks for the question. We've talked about in terms of the strategy going forward. It's a zero to one CASM CAGR over the 2018 to 2020 period. So 2018, 2019, 2020. And it does indeed include a pilot deal."

WOW. So CASM will only go up a MAX of 1% with our contract. These guys are delusional. Get your striken' boots ready. SOP boys.

FUPM

Go back and reads he said " it excludes a pilot contract"......

PasserOGas
04-25-2018, 04:56 PM
Go back and reads he said " it excludes a pilot contract"......

Um, no. This is copied directly from the transcript no editing done.

Bozo the pilot
04-25-2018, 05:16 PM
A picketing event can come at any time. No need to read into it.

Im looking at "at any time" Is that not synonymous with "out of the blue"?
Do tell...

Alterbridge
04-25-2018, 05:17 PM
He contradicts himself in his reply to the follow-up question about the last half of this year by saying the giudance does not include any ALPA deal.

Bozo the pilot
04-25-2018, 05:18 PM
He contradicts himself in his reply to the follow-up question about the last half of this year by saying the giudance does not include any ALPA deal.

Yea Priest was all over the place trying not to step on a land mine.:cool:

Alterbridge
04-25-2018, 05:19 PM
Battle stars normally reference having honored the picket line during a strike.

In the union sense that is.

I think he's indeed saying that he's previously earned a Battle Star and is more than willing to earn another one.

Combatcraig
04-25-2018, 06:22 PM
I think he's indeed saying that he's previously earned a Battle Star and is more than willing to earn another one.

My bad. Misused the term. Only my 2nd picket but happy to be there and pull my weight!

pilotpayne
04-25-2018, 06:34 PM
Yea Priest was all over the place trying not to step on a land mine.:cool:

Exactly that. It was like yes no yes no maybe

Alterbridge
04-25-2018, 06:56 PM
My bad. Misused the term. Only my 2nd picket but happy to be there and pull my weight!

Ah. Aaaaaand I badly misinterpreted the misuse. Whoopsy.

Off to bed. As if that will help me....

PasserOGas
04-26-2018, 04:08 AM
He contradicts himself in his reply to the follow-up question about the last half of this year by saying the giudance does not include any ALPA deal.

Ah, went back and found it.

Hyperboy was right. What if... what if hyperboy has been right this whole time? OMG. Mind bending. Up is down and down is up. Jetblue is an honorable company and Delta is a failed business model. The sweet spot is REAL. Hey, this feels GOOD! I'm just gonna hang out in HB's head space for a while before work so I will be in a good mood today.

PowderFinger
04-26-2018, 04:50 AM
My bad. Misused the term. Only my 2nd picket but happy to be there and pull my weight!

Super ... Wishing you guys success ... And soon.

benzoate
04-26-2018, 04:58 AM
He contradicts himself in his reply to the follow-up question about the last half of this year by saying the giudance does not include any ALPA deal.

If you take a step back and think about it his statement epitomizes Jetblue, say one thing and mean or another. Barger was absolutely famous for this and clearly his rambling rhetoric is strong in Priest.

Bluedriver
04-26-2018, 07:14 AM
Go back and reads he said " it excludes a pilot contract"......

Absolutely NOT correct Hyper.

The CFO made a very specific declaration to institutional investors on a recorded public call saying the 2018-2020 CAGR CASM guidance "does indeed include a pilot deal". The transcript was published by JB, no retraction or correction was issued.

The second question was whether or not a pilot deal was included in the 2nd half 2018 CASM guidance, to which he said no.

Those are two different guides, with two different answers. No mistake was made.

They have included, at least what the company thinks a CBA will cost, into the CASM guidance with a start date no later than December 31 2020... Definitely FAR from good news, but it's in the 3 year guidance at a cost base the company assumes.

I'm having a hard time deciding what color my new car will be, in late 2020.

hyperboy
04-26-2018, 08:12 AM
Absolutely NOT correct Hyper.

The CFO made a very specific declaration to institutional investors on a recorded public call saying the 2018-2020 CAGR CASM guidance "does indeed include a pilot deal". The transcript was published by JB, no retraction or correction was issued.

The second question was whether or not a pilot deal was included in the 2nd half 2018 CASM guidance, to which he said no.

Those are two different guides, with two different answers. No mistake was made.

They have included, at least what the company thinks a CBA will cost, into the CASM guidance with a start date no later than December 31 2020... Definitely FAR from good news, but it's in the 3 year guidance at a cost base the company assumes.

I'm having a hard time deciding what color my new car will be, in late 2020.

Why would up make up fake stuff like you? I listened to the call you should have too. That is what he said. You need to listen better.......

You can also go to page 12 of the earnings call presentation and look at the notes at the bottom of the page.......

Either way yet again guilty of your "fake news"! You coward and bully! Man up! You have my number

Bet you are a real treat to fly with.......

Bluedriver
04-26-2018, 08:32 AM
I listened to the call you should have too. That is what he said. You need to listen better.......

I know you are ESL, but this is getting pathetic and embarrassing for you, if you had the self awareness to actually recognize it.

I listened. I read this part of the transcript. The difference is I actually understand the subject matter and understand the fine nuances of the English language.

You are fully wrong, again.

No correction or retraction has been posted by the company regarding their comments specific to the 2018-2020 CASM guidance where the company's CFO said clearly "it does indeed include a pilot deal".

Period.

hyperboy
04-26-2018, 08:34 AM
I know you are ESL, but this is getting pathetic and embarrassing for you, if you had the self awareness to actually recognize it.

I listened. I read this part of the transcript. The difference is I actually understand the subject matter and understand the fine nuances of the English language.

You are fully wrong, again.

No correction or retraction has been posted by the company regarding their comments specific to the 2018-2020 CASM guidance where the company's CFO said clearly "it does indeed include a pilot deal".

Period.

well then go to page 12 tool belt.

Bluedriver
04-26-2018, 08:39 AM
well then go to page 12 tool belt.

You would think that when someone tells you that you are not seeing the big picture and don't fully understand the topic, that a guy would stop digging the hole he's fallen into and go try to better understand the subject. Especially since the key to his misunderstanding was given to him on a plastic spoon in a prior post.

But not you!

Bluedriver
04-26-2018, 08:54 AM
Please let us all know when you figure it out, don't just fade into silence when the light bulb finally comes on Hyper.

rvr1800
04-26-2018, 09:22 AM
Will you two just make out already?

Bluedriver
04-26-2018, 09:36 AM
Will you two just make out already?

At least this has a topic that is not subjective. There is right and wrong by SEC standards.

Bluedriver
04-26-2018, 09:41 AM
At least we aren't arguing about whether or not JB is totally awesome like usual.

It's not by the way.

BeatNavy
04-26-2018, 10:04 AM
http://otp.investis.com/generic/sec/sec-show.aspx?ipage=12697751&Cik=0001158463&Type=PDF

Page 12, or 26/36 in the presentation, has the note: “the estimates above do not include the potential outcome of a pilot deal.”

“So you’re saying there’s a chance!!”

But really, they won’t project how much a new labor deal will cost for a contract that’s still being negotiated...while they have their estimates, that would 1) show their hand, 2) be a potentially inaccurate projection. They only thing they can accurately advertise and plan on is the current book costs. Once something material changes, ie a deal is done, they update their cost estimates accordingly...but not before. I think that’s pretty standard. And I think we went over this last investor call, and the union addressed it as something not to read into. I think that was put out in a union email, and I believe at the pre-picket rally it was discussed. I could be wrong. But feel free to contact the union, even the NC directly, and get it straight from the horse’s mouth.

We have 24 E190 orders on the books and listed in our investor information (10K/8Ks), but we know we aren’t taking them. But until the order officially changes or cancels, it’s retained in there. Plenty of reasons to be plssed off at and about this company, specifically about them dragging out negotiations while buying back insane amounts of stock to line their own pockets, sending millions upon millions of our hard earned money to tech ventures, investing millions in another airline, etc. But their stated information about CASM ex-fuel/labor costs staying flat isn’t indicative of any actual plan for negotiations to stall further. Could they stall another couple years? Sure. Could they be done next session? Sure. But their investor presentations won’t give any indication of when it will be done.

Bluedriver
04-26-2018, 10:11 AM
http://otp.investis.com/generic/sec/sec-show.aspx?ipage=12697751&Cik=0001158463&Type=PDF

Page 12, or 26/36 in the presentation, has the note: ďthe estimates above do not include the potential outcome of a pilot deal.Ē

ďSo youíre saying thereís a chance!!Ē

But really, they wonít project how much a new labor deal will cost for a contract thatís still being negotiated...while they have their estimates, that would 1) show their hand, 2) be a potentially inaccurate projection. They only thing they can accurately advertise and plan on is the current book costs. Once something material changes, ie a deal is done, they update their cost estimates accordingly...but not before. I think thatís pretty standard. And I think we went over this last investor call, and the union addressed it as something not to read into. I think that was put out in a union email, and I believe at the pre-picket rally it was discussed. I could be wrong. But feel free to contact the union, even the NC directly, and get it straight from the horseís mouth.

We have 24 E190 orders on the books and listed in our investor information (10K/8Ks), but we know we arenít taking them. But until the order officially changes or cancels, itís retained in there. Plenty of reasons to be plssed off at and about this company, specifically about them dragging out negotiations while buying back insane amounts of stock to line their own pockets, sending millions upon millions of our hard earned money to tech ventures, investing millions in another airline, etc. But their stated information about CASM ex-fuel/labor costs staying flat isnít indicative of any actual plan for negotiations to stall further. Could they stall another couple years? Sure. Could they be done next session? Sure. But their investor presentations wonít give any indication of when it will be done.

There are 2, *two*, *TWO* separate CASM estimates. There were 2 questions asked, each regarding a *different* CASM estimate. And 2 correspondingly different, seemingly conflicting answers given.

The asterisk applys to one of the CASM guides, not the other. That is why there are two different answers, and why no correction or retraction issued.

To further explain, a 2018-2020 CASM guide has been issued that DOES "indeed" include a pilot CBA (management assumptions). There is a separate 2nd half 2018 CASM guide that does NOT include a pilot CBA.

BeatNavy
04-26-2018, 10:18 AM
To further explain, a 2018-2020 CASM guide has been issued that DOES "indeed" include a pilot CBA (management assumptions). There is a separate 2nd half 2018 CASM guide that does NOT include a pilot CBA.

Where are you looking?

Bluedriver
04-26-2018, 10:32 AM
Where are you looking?

They issued the 2018-2020 CAGR CASM estimate to be 0-1% several quarters ago, and have been having to reaffirm that guide several times in the last few calls because Wall Street is very skeptical about it. Our CFO was asked about it again in this last call, to which he reaffirmed the 0-1% CASM 2018-2020 and added that it "indeed" includes a pilot deal.

There is a separate CASM estimate for 2nd half 2018 that does not include a CBA, note the asterisk already mentioned. If you look at slide 12, it says the "information above" does not include a pilot deal. To the right, it touches on the 2019-2020 CASM, but it's not cristal clear, but take note that that estimate is to the right, not "above" and it also does not have the famous asterisk...

It's not very clear, and that's part of the reason the analyst asked for clarification on both *separate* CASM guides.

Bluedriver
04-26-2018, 10:35 AM
And you are correct Beat, the absence of a CBA included in the 2nd half 2018 guidance is meaningless. They have indicated that and have full legal ability to conclude CBA negotiations this year and simply update the guidance.

Bluedriver
04-26-2018, 10:52 AM
The 2018-2020 CASM guide has been discussed frequently, and if I remember correctly it was discussed in January in this presentation (can't remember if it was the Barclays or the J.P. Morgan):

http://mediaroom.jetblue.com/investor-relations/press-releases/2018/02-16-2018-230023274

But everything you really need to know about the 2018-2020 CASM guide is right in the transcript:

"Brandon Oglenski

Hi, good morning everyone and thanks for taking my question. Steve, can you remind us what the long-term CASM goal as we get out of 2019 and 2020 and whether or not you guys factored in the pilot deal for that goal.

Steve Priest

Good morning, Brandon and thanks for the question. We've talked about in terms of the strategy going forward. It's a zero to one CASM CAGR over the 2018 to 2020 period. So 2018, 2019, 2020. And it does indeed include a pilot deal.

Brandon Oglenski

Okay. And just a point of clarification, the back half of this year, though, you're not assuming any new labor contracts, right?

Steve Priest

We haven't made any specific comments or predictions around the specific pilot deal. The guide that we've given excludes any alpha deal, and we continue to negotiate good safety to alpha at the table, and I'm looking forward to moving forward with those contracts in due course."

End of quote.

The second question is a shifting of gears to the 2nd half 2018 guide (this wasn't very clear, because Wall Street'ers understand the fine nuances of this stuff better than most of us), which is the slide 12 guide.

pilotpayne
04-26-2018, 01:01 PM
And pretty much all they can guide right now with pilot costs is status quo.
There is no way (not saying thatís what you are saying) they would be like we expect pilot costs to go up this much.

So for now itís project costs based on the numbers we are living under. While they might know the range of the pilot costs(Iím sure they do) itís not a hard fixed number yet.

Not saying good or bad, just not surprised.

Bozo the pilot
04-26-2018, 01:03 PM
And pretty much all they can guide right now with pilot costs is status quo.
There is no way (not saying thatís what you are saying) they would be like we expect pilot costs to go up this much.

So for now itís project costs based on the numbers we are living under. While they might know the range of the pilot costs(Iím sure they do) itís not a hard fixed number yet.

Not saying good or bad, just not surprised.

Agreed- The earnings call was a nothing burger as far as a T/A timeline.
Stock footage.:cool:

pilotpayne
04-26-2018, 04:06 PM
Agreed- The earnings call was a nothing burger as far as a T/A timeline.
Stock footage.:cool:

Pretty much

Bluedriver
04-26-2018, 07:01 PM
And pretty much all they can guide right now with pilot costs is status quo.
There is no way (not saying thatís what you are saying) they would be like we expect pilot costs to go up this much.

So for now itís project costs based on the numbers we are living under. While they might know the range of the pilot costs(Iím sure they do) itís not a hard fixed number yet.

Not saying good or bad, just not surprised.

I can't quite tell but am I understanding that you disagree with my assessment?

Are you saying you think the CFO simply misspoke when he said it did "indeed" include a pilot CBA?

queue
04-27-2018, 10:14 AM
I hope this demonstration is not as castrated as every other one in history. Obviously ALPA has not learned that the *only* response that works is a nuclear response. Picketing with vague, friendly slogans that no one cares about doesn't work. How about "We Save Your Lives, We Demand Compensation", "JB Abuses Pilots", "JB Pays Us 40% Less", "JB Exploits Pilots", "JB Steals from Pilots", "JB disrespects pilots", "JB doesn't care about its pilots", "JB Culture is Fake", "JB's fake culture doesn't pay the bills", "JB Lies, Lies, Lies". I hope that gold mine of ALPA dues goes towards handing out informational pamphlets, buying air horns, hiring sky-writers, and approaching every news media around.

People, you have no power other than striking and the court of public opinion. The public doesn't care unless you become their problem. The system is rigged against you (RLA). Accomplished history demonstrates nothing but systemic failure in previous ALPA campaigns (vs. time/money expended). Time to try other techniques. Learn from what other people in other industries and politics do to achieve their objectives. Contact B6 ALPA and tell them this is war, not Sunday church. We will only win if we exert pressure ourselves, each and every one of us, on B6 ALPA and ALPA to get results. Remember, the RLA is merely a MINIMUM framework. JB could be convinced to simple settle this overnight if they are given sufficient reason to do so.


This communique is for entertainment purposes only. It does not implicitly or explicitly acknowledge employment with any air carrier nor is any relationship implied. This communique does not represent the opinions or policies of ALPA or JB ALPA and does not represent the collective pilot group, ALPA, nor does it imply collective bargaining, advocacy, or workforce actions intended to disrupt operations.

rvr1800
04-27-2018, 10:50 AM
I hope this demonstration is not as castrated as every other one in history. Obviously ALPA has not learned that the *only* response that works is a nuclear response. Picketing with vague, friendly slogans that no one cares about doesn't work. How about "We Save Your Lives, We Demand Compensation", "JB Abuses Pilots", "JB Pays Us 40% Less", "JB Exploits Pilots", "JB Steals from Pilots", "JB disrespects pilots", "JB doesn't care about its pilots", "JB Culture is Fake", "JB's fake culture doesn't pay the bills", "JB Lies, Lies, Lies". I hope that gold mine of ALPA dues goes towards handing out informational pamphlets, buying air horns, hiring sky-writers, and approaching every news media around.

People, you have no power other than striking and the court of public opinion. The public doesn't care unless you become their problem. The system is rigged against you (RLA). Accomplished history demonstrates nothing but systemic failure in previous ALPA campaigns (vs. time/money expended). Time to try other techniques. Learn from what other people in other industries and politics do to achieve their objectives. Contact B6 ALPA and tell them this is war, not Sunday church. We will only win if we exert pressure ourselves, each and every one of us, on B6 ALPA and ALPA to get results. Remember, the RLA is merely a MINIMUM framework. JB could be convinced to simple settle this overnight if they are given sufficient reason to do so.


This communique is for entertainment purposes only. It does not implicitly or explicitly acknowledge employment with any air carrier nor is any relationship implied. This communique does not represent the opinions or policies of ALPA or JB ALPA and does not represent the collective pilot group, ALPA, nor does it imply collective bargaining, advocacy, or workforce actions intended to disrupt operations.


So we can count on seeing you there?

Bluedriver
04-27-2018, 11:16 AM
1. Any CFO and labor consultant group can figure out what this CBA is going to cost within 2% with a napkin and a crayon. And they have had ALPAs complete contract proposals for months and know where the industry is at.

2. The transcript clearly says "it does indeed include a pilot *deal*". Deal clearly infers a new paradigm, not status quo.

3. Did our CFO also misspeak here between minutes 13-15:

https://cc.talkpoint.com/barc002/022118a_as/?entity=28_XEEYQF2

pilotpayne
04-28-2018, 04:28 AM
I can't quite tell but am I understanding that you disagree with my assessment?

Are you saying you think the CFO simply misspoke when he said it did "indeed" include a pilot CBA?

I donít feel like doing this with you.

Bozo the pilot
04-28-2018, 04:48 AM
I don’t feel like doing this with you.
Maybe its early but I found this response awesome- and No disrespect to you, Blue- you may be absolutely correct.
Nobody outside of that room knows for sure.

Tom a Hawk
04-28-2018, 06:30 AM
An alternate explanation:

CFO believes a deal will be done before 2020 and said so on the call. He also believes that he can get a cost neutral deal out of this pilot group.

Itís time we disabuse him of that fantasy. See you on the 17th.

jetpilot285
04-28-2018, 07:47 AM
Opinion: With negotiations taking place literally every month I highly doubt this is gonna drag till 2020 not even mid 2019. Management came up with Alaska rate -1% and retirement that will grow to 16% over the life of the contract back in January. Although not good enough, but I believe progress is being made let's be optimistic and trust the Alpa guys to do their job.

hilltopflyer
04-28-2018, 10:18 AM
Opinion: With negotiations taking place literally every month I highly doubt this is gonna drag till 2020 not even mid 2019. Management came up with Alaska rate -1% and retirement that will grow to 16% over the life of the contract back in January. Although not good enough, but I believe progress is being made let's be optimistic and trust the Alpa guys to do their job.

Retirement growing to 16% over lifetime of contract is a bunch of crap. Just saying.

Rascal
04-28-2018, 10:21 AM
Opinion: With negotiations taking place literally every month I highly doubt this is gonna drag till 2020 not even mid 2019. Management came up with Alaska rate -1% and retirement that will grow to 16% over the life of the contract back in January. Although not good enough, but I believe progress is being made let's be optimistic and trust the Alpa guys to do their job.

This deal included scheduling concessions... We are very far apart.

Bozo the pilot
04-28-2018, 10:38 AM
This deal included scheduling concessions... We are very far apart.

Yea but they have to try to nickel and dime.
It makes no difference, the NC isnt going to present anything to us that is substandard. Sop could solve alot of this doubt.
The latest email says it all: Do your job and NOT ANYONE ELSES.
What is so tough about that?

capt707
04-28-2018, 10:40 AM
Opinion: With negotiations taking place literally every month I highly doubt this is gonna drag till 2020 not even mid 2019. Management came up with Alaska rate -1% and retirement that will grow to 16% over the life of the contract back in January. Although not good enough, but I believe progress is being made let's be optimistic and trust the Alpa guys to do their job.

Yup... just enough progress to get us thru the summer. This will go on a couple more years, we still have too many selfish wh0res around here.

schwa
04-28-2018, 10:49 AM
Opinion: With negotiations taking place literally every month I highly doubt this is gonna drag till 2020 not even mid 2019. Management came up with Alaska rate -1% and retirement that will grow to 16% over the life of the contract back in January. Although not good enough, but I believe progress is being made let's be optimistic and trust the Alpa guys to do their job.

What was the significance of Alaska -1%? Why not +1% or -2%? Does it have something to do with mergers or the relationship between the two companies?

Bluedriver
04-28-2018, 11:37 AM
I donít feel like doing this with you.

Then don't, obviously, but if you are saying our CFO simply misspoke twice or that they can't guide anything but status quo, you might want to rethink that:

1. Any CFO and labor consultant group can figure out what this CBA is going to cost within 2% with a napkin and a crayon. And they have had ALPAs complete contract proposals for months and know where the industry is at.

2. The transcript clearly says "it does indeed include a pilot *deal*". *Deal* clearly infers a new paradigm, not status quo.

3. Did our CFO also misspeak here between minutes 13-15:

https://cc.talkpoint.com/barc002/022118a_as/?entity=28_XEEYQF2

4. Moving on.

5. FUPM.

6. See everyone May 17th.

Bluedriver
04-28-2018, 12:05 PM
Maybe its early but I found this response awesome- and No disrespect to you, Blue- you may be absolutely correct.
Nobody outside of that room knows for sure.

Everyone in the room, and every Wall Street analyst who read the transcript, listened to the Q1 conference call or listened to the Barclay's conference.

😁

BeatNavy
04-28-2018, 12:52 PM
BD: this is also at the end of the transcript:

When used in this document and in documents incorporated herein by reference, the words ďexpects,Ē ďplans,Ē ďanticipates,Ē ďindicates,Ē ďbelieves,Ē ďforecast,Ē ďguidance,Ē ďoutlook,Ē ďmay,Ē ďwill,Ē ďshould,Ē ďseeks,Ē ďtargetsĒ and similar expressions are intended to identify forward-looking statements. Forward-looking statements involve risks, uncertainties and assumptions, and are based on information currently available to us. Actual results may differ materially from those expressed in the forward-looking statements due to many factors, including, without limitation, our extremely competitive industry; volatility in financial and credit markets which could affect our ability to obtain debt and/or lease financing or to raise funds through debt or equity issuances; volatility in fuel prices, maintenance costs and interest rates; our ability to implement our growth strategy; our significant fixed obligations and substantial indebtedness; our ability to attract and retain qualified personnel and maintain our culture as we grow; our reliance on high daily aircraft utilization; our dependence on the New York and Boston metropolitan markets and the effect of increased congestion in these markets; our reliance on automated systems and technology; our being subject to potential unionization, work stoppages, slowdowns or increased labor costs;

The 2019-2020 ď0 to 1Ē could factor in the planned structural cost reduction, which I think was $300m, to offset a pilot deal. Is that enough to pay for our contract? I dunno. Priest isnít going to come out and say they plan on pilot costs increasing $300m per year and cost reductions of $300m for a net zero - 1% gain. He doesnít know, nor will he estimate, when it will get done or how much it will costóthey donít know when our NC will finally bite and what we will ultimately vote on. Forecasting CASM in 2020 based on a crappy/vs strong pilot contract has probably been done by the company, but they wonít show that in these calls. Whether or not itís factored in for long term CASM guidance? Sure a lowball deal could be, or is, factored in...but that number could easily change with a keystroke, and then guidance gets revised.

blueballs
04-28-2018, 01:13 PM
BD: this is also at the end of the transcript:



The 2019-2020 ď0 to 1Ē could factor in the planned structural cost reduction, which I think was $300m, to offset a pilot deal. Is that enough to pay for our contract? I dunno. Priest isnít going to come out and say they plan on pilot costs increasing $300m per year and cost reductions of $300m for a net zero - 1% gain. He doesnít know, nor will he estimate, when it will get done or how much it will costóthey donít know when our NC will finally bite and what we will ultimately vote on. Forecasting CASM in 2020 based on a crappy/vs strong pilot contract has probably been done by the company, but they wonít show that in these calls. Whether or not itís factored in for long term CASM guidance? Sure a lowball deal could be, or is, factored in...but that number could easily change with a keystroke, and then guidance gets revised.

Well said. BD I get the anger and negative attitude but until a pilot deal is in writing the company will not include that into forecast. Yes they can predict but until itís set in stone why give Wall Street any news like that. Thatís why they have small print during earnings calls on forward looking statements. This isnít going to stretch out for another 2 years.

jtrain609
04-28-2018, 01:14 PM
Well said. BD I get the anger and negative attitude but until a pilot deal is in writing the company will not include that into forecast. Yes they can predict but until itís set in stone why give Wall Street any news like that. Thatís why they have small print during earnings calls on forward looking statements. This isnít going to stretch out for another 2 years.

It's not about wall street.

They don't want to give ALPA information like that.

pilotpayne
04-28-2018, 02:24 PM
Well said. BD I get the anger and negative attitude but until a pilot deal is in writing the company will not include that into forecast. Yes they can predict but until itís set in stone why give Wall Street any news like that. Thatís why they have small print during earnings calls on forward looking statements. This isnít going to stretch out for another 2 years.

Oh my GOD you said negative

Heís making a list checking it twice gonna find out who called him negative and not nice, bluedriver is coming to get you.

:)

pilotpayne
04-28-2018, 02:34 PM
Well said. BD I get the anger and negative attitude but until a pilot deal is in writing the company will not include that into forecast. Yes they can predict but until itís set in stone why give Wall Street any news like that. Thatís why they have small print during earnings calls on forward looking statements. This isnít going to stretch out for another 2 years.

Or if we look at it under BD interpretation(could be right)of what they said, ALPA should go full ape crap crazy because we are looking at 2020

N311JB
04-28-2018, 03:27 PM
It's not about wall street.

They don't want to give ALPA information like that.

Ahh this. This is why we’re all a bunch a pilots that weren’t able to hack it doing anything else. There’s a reason they put out an earnings call because IT is ALL about Wall Street. Good lord are some of you are so naive. But then again being naive is what got us in the mess to begin with. You know. Those promises that were made to you by a bunch of suits. If it means dragging this out another year to save a single dollar they will! My last company it took 5 years. Bunch of suckers that think they know everything. If you knew just an inkling we would have had a Union from the get go. But hey we’re gonna show em this summer. Yeah we’re gonna show em after our families divorce us for not being around for the 5th summer in a row. I think the real issue is we’re not so much as ****ed at the company but rather ourselves because we all got taken for a ride and we all know it’s too late. Nothing will change that.

Bluedriver
04-28-2018, 03:46 PM
The cost of a pilot CBA (managements projections) IS included in the 3 year CAGR CASM guidance they gave Wall Street. Because of the automatic cloudiness of a 3 year CAGR guide, coupled with the structural items that will REDUCE non-fuel CASM over the next 3 years (structural cost program, A320 seat densification), there is no way (not enough information) for ALPA or any Wall Street analyst or even me to get a solid read on what portion of the CASM is dedicated to raising pilot wages. Therefore, it is not sensitive information to kept under top secret.

2. What they have done, which is explained fairly well in the Barclay's presentation, is give a 3 year guide that will be between 0-1% on a CAGR basis ("The CAGR is a mathematical formula that provides a "smoothed" rate of return. It is really a pro forma number that tells you what an investment yields on an annually compounded basis ") through 2020. This 0-1% would have been a negative because of all the structural cost items and the A320 seat densification, both reduce CASM, if not for the "headwind" of a pilot contract deal. Again, explained in the Barclay's presentation.

3. So yes, they are counting on the structural cost program and A320 seat densification to roughly pay for our CBA, which is fine.

pilotpayne
04-28-2018, 04:11 PM
The cost of a pilot CBA (managements projections) IS included in the 3 year CAGR CASM guidance they gave Wall Street. Because of the automatic cloudiness of a 3 year CAGR guide, coupled with the structural items that will REDUCE non-fuel CASM over the next 3 years (structural cost program, A320 seat densification), there is no way (not enough information) for ALPA or any Wall Street analyst or even me to get a solid read on what portion of the CASM is dedicated to raising pilot wages. Therefore, it is not sensitive information to kept under top secret.

2. What they have done, which is explained fairly well in the Barclay's presentation, is give a 3 year guide that will be between 0-1% on a CAGR basis ("The CAGR is a mathematical formula that provides a "smoothed" rate of return. It is really a pro forma number that tells you what an investment yields on an annually compounded basis ") through 2020. This 0-1% would have been a negative because of all the structural cost items and the A320 seat densification, both reduce CASM, if not for the "headwind" of a pilot contract deal. Again, explained in the Barclay's presentation.

3. So yes, they are counting on the structural cost program and A320 seat densification to roughly pay for our CBA, which is fine.

I know Iím dumb.
The way I was reading what you were saying was that because they were only projecting 1% increase in casm we would not get a contract anytime soon.

I guess it depends how much of the casm is around pilot costs.

But thatís why I. Just an express pilot.

hyperboy
04-28-2018, 04:37 PM
Opinion: With negotiations taking place literally every month I highly doubt this is gonna drag till 2020 not even mid 2019. Management came up with Alaska rate -1% and retirement that will grow to 16% over the life of the contract back in January. Although not good enough, but I believe progress is being made let's be optimistic and trust the Alpa guys to do their job.


Negative it was within A percent of the old rates. A percent is not 1 percent. Could be any percent. Not good. 15-16 % is standard.

Bluedriver
04-28-2018, 05:27 PM
I know Iím dumb.
The way I was reading what you were saying was that because they were only projecting 1% increase in casm we would not get a contract anytime soon.

I guess it depends how much of the casm is around pilot costs.

But thatís why I. Just an express pilot.

Ah, I think I see the disconnect.

No, they could give us a very good contract tomorrow, and still make the 0-1% guide over the next 3 years.

They would need to publish new guidance for the rest of 2018 though, which is normal and is what Wall Street is expecting anyway.

Bluedriver
04-28-2018, 05:30 PM
Negative it was within A percent of the old rates. A percent is not 1 percent. Could be any percent. Not good. 15-16 % is standard.

He's saying 16% over the life of the contract is bad because it should be 16% on day 1, not increasing to 16% over several years like the company offered.

pilotpayne
04-28-2018, 05:31 PM
Ah, I think I see the disconnect.

No, they could give us a very good contract tomorrow, and still make the 0-1% guide over the next 3 years.

They would need to publish new guidance for the rest of 2018 though, which is normal and is what Wall Street is expecting anyway.


Yeah totally not the way I took it.
I got what you are saying now.


See you werenít being negative;)

hyperboy
04-28-2018, 05:34 PM
He's saying 16% over the life of the contract is bad because it should be 16% on day 1, not increasing to 16% over several years like the company offered.

I am aware......and I am saying that 15-16 % is standard.

Bozo the pilot
04-28-2018, 05:42 PM
I am aware......and I am saying that 15-16 % is standard.

For now...:)

Bluedriver
04-28-2018, 06:14 PM
Yeah totally not the way I took it.
I got what you are saying now.


See you werenít being negative;)

I took my meds.

😁

pilotpayne
04-30-2018, 05:29 AM
I took my meds.

😁

Oh the happy pills?

Where did you get them my stash is running low.

PasserOGas
04-30-2018, 05:50 AM
Oh the happy pills?

Where did you get them my stash is running low.

Ask Hyperboy. We all know he is on something good.

cmesoar
04-30-2018, 06:16 AM
https://www.marketwatch.com/Story/jetblues-stock-drops-after-downgrade-spirit-shares-jump-after-jp-morgan-swings-to-bullish-2018-04-30?&siteid=yhoof2&yptr=yahoo

This is what Iím talking about! See you on the 17th :D

pilotpayne
04-30-2018, 06:42 AM
https://www.marketwatch.com/Story/jetblues-stock-drops-after-downgrade-spirit-shares-jump-after-jp-morgan-swings-to-bullish-2018-04-30?&siteid=yhoof2&yptr=yahoo

This is what Iím talking about! See you on the 17th :D

Talk about absolutely perfect timing.
I think the board has a meeting this month as well as the shareholders meeting. Right before our next negotiations and an info pickett and now Wall St is actively concerned about a contract.
One reason he upgraded Spirit was the fact that their contract was done. Wall St likes ďknownsĒ and right now the only thing they know is the ELT is screwing this up.

The obvious answer is sign the contract make peace with your labor groups come out with a plan and get back to running an airline, maybe if a tech venture company said that they would do it.

Wait wait, I need to go form a company real quick.

BeatNavy
04-30-2018, 07:31 AM
Talk about absolutely perfect timing.
I think the board has a meeting this month as well as the shareholders meeting. Right before our next negotiations and an info pickett and now Wall St is actively concerned about a contract.
One reason he upgraded Spirit was the fact that their contract was done. Wall St likes ďknownsĒ and right now the only thing they know is the ELT is screwing this up.

The obvious answer is sign the contract make peace with your labor groups come out with a plan and get back to running an airline, maybe if a tech venture company said that they would do it.

Wait wait, I need to go form a company real quick.

Timing for the CSPP was pretty ideal too.

hyperboy
04-30-2018, 07:32 AM
https://www.marketwatch.com/Story/jetblues-stock-drops-after-downgrade-spirit-shares-jump-after-jp-morgan-swings-to-bullish-2018-04-30?&siteid=yhoof2&yptr=yahoo

This is what Iím talking about! See you on the 17th :D

See you there.

blueballs
04-30-2018, 07:50 AM
See you there.
Will you be looking down at us from one of the offices at LSC? I love how this place #keepsgettingbetter

hyperboy
04-30-2018, 08:00 AM
Will you be looking down at us from one of the offices at LSC? I love how this place #keepsgettingbetter

Yes cause thats the way you treat and talk to a fellow union brother and ALPA volunteer.......classy.

blueballs
04-30-2018, 08:27 AM
Yes cause thats the way you treat and talk to a fellow union brother and ALPA volunteer.......classy.

You brought this on yourself sweetcheeks

Bluedriver
04-30-2018, 09:45 AM
Oh the happy pills?

Where did you get them my stash is running low.

I could share some, but then I go back to being angry and violent and no one likes me that way, apparently.

😀

hyperboy
04-30-2018, 09:51 AM
You brought this on yourself sweetcheeks




Call me anytime you want the truth?! Until then continue to lie and assassinate your union brothers and sisters that are actually trying to achieve a good contract. Certainly won't be done on these boards...

blueballs
04-30-2018, 10:31 AM
Call me anytime you want the truth?! Until then continue to lie and assassinate your union brothers and sisters that are actually trying to achieve a good contract. Certainly won't be done on these boards...
I don’t lie and I certainly don’t attack my union brothers and sisters. I do call you out as you lie on here about it being good and getting better. It isn’t. You are painting this picture for potential new hires of this place, but you are misleading them. If your cheerleading for jetblue brings just one person here, then in my opinion you are slowing the contract negotiations and you are no brother of mine. You turned yourself into the enemy when you came on here to tell people it just keeps getting better when in fact each day is worse than the day before. We are stuck in that scene of office space. Until a market rate CBA is achieved we should be shouting on every forum we can how this company is treating us. You have decided not too. You are not helping, go away. I will not call you company man!!!

ARL120384
04-30-2018, 10:47 AM
See you there!

hyperboy
04-30-2018, 03:09 PM
You brought this on yourself sweetcheeks

by saying i will see you there? Please quit looking at my cheeks it makes me uncomfortable.

hyperboy
04-30-2018, 03:12 PM
I don’t lie and I certainly don’t attack my union brothers and sisters. I do call you out as you lie on here about it being good and getting better. It isn’t. You are painting this picture for potential new hires of this place, but you are misleading them. If your cheerleading for jetblue brings just one person here, then in my opinion you are slowing the contract negotiations and you are no brother of mine. You turned yourself into the enemy when you came on here to tell people it just keeps getting better when in fact each day is worse than the day before. We are stuck in that scene of office space. Until a market rate CBA is achieved we should be shouting on every forum we can how this company is treating us. You have decided not too. You are not helping, go away. I will not call you company man!!!

and I will call you the man that has a fetish for blue and balls!!! and you call me a company man?

Theotheaviator
05-01-2018, 04:24 PM
Flight, hotel and RSVP booked!

Blue Dude
05-01-2018, 07:59 PM
Ditto. See you there.



Search Engine Optimization by vBSEO 3.6.1