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fenix1
05-13-2018, 02:30 AM
A lot has happened as QX has taken on 175ís and thereís plenty some conflicting info. From whatís visible to you all on the inside, whatís your best guess/projection about the real (not recruiting pitch...) timeline for all 175ís to be on property? Also, how many total 175ís do you see ultimately at QX? I know thereís 30-ish firm 175 orders with options for 30-ish more, but some of QXís flying just seems like a lot better fit for Q400ís than the jet so seems unlikely that QX will go all 175.

QX looks like a really good situation in many ways, but all the Q400ís concerns me with respect to career progression (i.e., thereís too many getting 121 jet time at other regional airlines for that not to have some impact on career progression). But, it also seems the point could be moot by the time Iím 121-eligible, depending on 175 integration timeline & total quantity.


Excargodog
05-13-2018, 06:53 AM
A lot has happened as QX has taken on 175’s and there’s plenty some conflicting info. From what’s visible to you all on the inside, what’s your best guess/projection about the real (not recruiting pitch...) timeline for all 175’s to be on property? Also, how many total 175’s do you see ultimately at QX? I know there’s 30-ish firm 175 orders with options for 30-ish more, but some of QX’s flying just seems like a lot better fit for Q400’s than the jet so seems unlikely that QX will go all 175.

QX looks like a really good situation in many ways, but all the Q400’s concerns me with respect to career progression (i.e., there’s too many getting 121 jet time at other regional airlines for that not to have some impact on career progression). But, it also seems the point could be moot by the time I’m 121-eligible, depending on 175 integration timeline & total quantity.

Seems like perfectly reasonable questions but I doubt that anyone will be able to give you any reliable answers. Whatever the plan is/was, it seems like it has a whole lot of moving parts that are not currently predictable, everything from how well the Alaska/Virgin merger works out economically (and politically) the future price of Jet-A, as well as the general shortages of eligible and/or desirable candidates for hire by the regionals, how aggressively SWA and Delta try to push into areas now flow by AAG, how well the general economy performs, and a dozen other things that are similarly unknowable. While this seems to be a time of real opportunity for people who meet the criteria for entry into the 121 world, there are still a lot of unknowns. And for the most important unknowns, no one is hiding the answers from you, they simply don't know either.

fenix1
05-14-2018, 06:23 AM
I understand completely - I may have worded my original questions poorly, but I'm just looking for 'best guesses' from those with better overall situational awareness & understanding of how AAG/QX (possibly OO) management tends to think than what I have currently!

Seems like perfectly reasonable questions but I doubt that anyone will be able to give you any reliable answers. Whatever the plan is/was, it seems like it has a whole lot of moving parts that are not currently predictable, everything from how well the Alaska/Virgin merger works out economically (and politically) the future price of Jet-A, as well as the general shortages of eligible and/or desirable candidates for hire by the regionals, how aggressively SWA and Delta try to push into areas now flow by AAG, how well the general economy performs, and a dozen other things that are similarly unknowable. While this seems to be a time of real opportunity for people who meet the criteria for entry into the 121 world, there are still a lot of unknowns. And for the most important unknowns, no one is hiding the answers from you, they simply don't know either.


fivebyfive
05-14-2018, 02:40 PM
I understand completely - I may have worded my original questions poorly, but I'm just looking for 'best guesses' from those with better overall situational awareness & understanding of how AAG/QX (possibly OO) management tends to think than what I have currently!

Unfortunately there is no transparency. However, it is easy to read between the lines once you understand AG mgmt behavior. We know that AG is expecting tuff times in the foreseeable future. Hence the AS hiring freeze and deferred aircraft orders. Deferring orders is important because it lowers capital commitment which directly helps profit margins. That is a big one for the shareholders. QX is going to take on just enough E175s to do the short Q400 routs. These short routs are bread and butter for AS profits. They are what fill the AS 737s. However, Sky West will not do these short routs because they are not profitable for them. Cost of seat mile is too high and maintenance costs soar. Hence the value of QX to AG. QX has no choice. They do what AG tells them to do. AG finds it more cost effective to farm out all of the longer routs to Sky West. And Sky West will gladly take all of them. And that’s where the remainder of QX E175 orders will be deferred. Farming to Sky West both decreases cost and keeps capital commitment down. A win/win for AG.
I think smart money says just a couple more E175s will come onto QX property.

Flightsoffusion
05-14-2018, 05:14 PM
Odd, Interviewing in 3 weeks..

fivebyfive
05-14-2018, 07:30 PM
Odd, Interviewing in 3 weeks..

Only if you are interviewing at AS. QX is hiring street captains.

Flightsoffusion
05-14-2018, 07:57 PM
Only if you are interviewing at AS. QX is hiring street captains.

Okay. But I'm interviewing with Horizon.

LRSRanger
05-14-2018, 08:06 PM
Ive got a QX interview scheduled too. Probably going to cancel it though. I cant find anything super compelling about QX at this point as compared with their competition.

fenix1
05-14-2018, 11:01 PM
"Just a couple more" E175's...period/for long haul? Or "just a couple more" until...year end 2018? year end 2019?

Makes a lot of sense that SkyWest wouldn't touch the short routes for financial reasons. What is AG's incentive to get QX E175's onto these short routes instead of Q400's, which seem like they'd be more efficient operationally on short routes? (Increased capacity to feed AS?)

Unfortunately there is no transparency. However, it is easy to read between the lines once you understand AG mgmt behavior. We know that AG is expecting tuff times in the foreseeable future. Hence the AS hiring freeze and deferred aircraft orders. Deferring orders is important because it lowers capital commitment which directly helps profit margins. That is a big one for the shareholders. QX is going to take on just enough E175s to do the short Q400 routs. These short routs are bread and butter for AS profits. They are what fill the AS 737s. However, Sky West will not do these short routs because they are not profitable for them. Cost of seat mile is too high and maintenance costs soar. Hence the value of QX to AG. QX has no choice. They do what AG tells them to do. AG finds it more cost effective to farm out all of the longer routs to Sky West. And Sky West will gladly take all of them. And thatís where the remainder of QX E175 orders will be deferred. Farming to Sky West both decreases cost and keeps capital commitment down. A win/win for AG.
I think smart money says just a couple more E175s will come onto QX property.

amcnd
05-15-2018, 04:29 AM
OO does plenty of short routes... sea-yvr/psc/pdx. And tons of short inter California... the real reason is support. Look at OO MX basses. If a QX plane breakes in MKE... They are screweed. OO has a mx base there. Same for all the DAL east coast flying... I agree with the statement that more then 30 Ejets at QX is iffy right now.. AS is in buyers remorse over VX and to much capacity....

fivebyfive
05-15-2018, 07:54 AM
OO does plenty of short routes... sea-yvr/psc/pdx. And tons of short inter California... the real reason is support. Look at OO MX basses. If a QX plane breakes in MKE... They are screweed. OO has a mx base there. Same for all the DAL east coast flying... I agree with the statement that more then 30 Ejets at QX is iffy right now.. AS is in buyers remorse over VX and to much capacity....

Upcoming QX & OO rout schedules are public knowledge. You should check it out. The ratio of longer routs is overwhelmingly in favor of OO.
The MX point you made is legit and part of the equation. Those longer routs were never meant to go to QX. If OO found it profitable to pick up the Q400 routs, AG would give it to them too. The only reason QX Jets came on property is because OO wouldn’t commit to the Q400 routs.

Vanilla
05-15-2018, 10:09 AM
Only if you are interviewing at AS. QX is hiring street captains.

Technically we are not hiring street captains. (We may be hiring captain qualified pilots.) Still hired as an FO and finish the initial cycle as an FO. You can get awarded captain during groundschool/sim training. Captain pay doesn't kick in until PIC IOE and linecheck are done. That could be several months from DOH.

Dashdrvr
05-15-2018, 01:04 PM
Unfortunately there is no transparency. However, it is easy to read between the lines once you understand AG mgmt behavior. We know that AG is expecting tuff times in the foreseeable future. Hence the AS hiring freeze and deferred aircraft orders. Deferring orders is important because it lowers capital commitment which directly helps profit margins. That is a big one for the shareholders. QX is going to take on just enough E175s to do the short Q400 routs. These short routs are bread and butter for AS profits. They are what fill the AS 737s. However, Sky West will not do these short routs because they are not profitable for them. Cost of seat mile is too high and maintenance costs soar. Hence the value of QX to AG. QX has no choice. They do what AG tells them to do. AG finds it more cost effective to farm out all of the longer routs to Sky West. And Sky West will gladly take all of them. And thatís where the remainder of QX E175 orders will be deferred. Farming to Sky West both decreases cost and keeps capital commitment down. A win/win for AG.
I think smart money says just a couple more E175s will come onto QX property.
The latest public documents show through 2019: 30 E jets with Horizon, 35 E jets plus 8 options with Skywest.
As far as cost goes there is no indication Horizon is more expensive than Skywest. What is different, Skywest very likely has an industry standard CPA that protects their investment in those jets in the form of daily utilization and stage length. In the end it is very expensive for AS to NOT use Skywest on the long routes. I really don't think Skywest cares one way or another if they do short or long legs. Long legs pay well and the financial downside of short legs is mitigated in the CPA.

WesternSkies
05-15-2018, 01:49 PM
Unfortunately there is no transparency. However, it is easy to read between the lines once you understand AG mgmt behavior. We know that AG is expecting tuff times in the foreseeable future. Hence the AS hiring freeze and deferred aircraft orders. Deferring orders is important because it lowers capital commitment which directly helps profit margins. That is a big one for the shareholders. QX is going to take on just enough E175s to do the short Q400 routs. These short routs are bread and butter for AS profits. They are what fill the AS 737s. However, Sky West will not do these short routs because they are not profitable for them. Cost of seat mile is too high and maintenance costs soar. Hence the value of QX to AG. QX has no choice. They do what AG tells them to do. AG finds it more cost effective to farm out all of the longer routs to Sky West. And Sky West will gladly take all of them. And thatís where the remainder of QX E175 orders will be deferred. Farming to Sky West both decreases cost and keeps capital commitment down. A win/win for AG.


How does this not contradict itself?
OO does not get to tell its customer what it will and won't do or what flying contracts will be awarded to it.

Short routes are the "bread and butter", yet they are more expensive to operate so they assign the less expensive routes to a different company????

fivebyfive
05-15-2018, 02:43 PM
Glad u asked. OO gets to indirectly decide what it will and won’t do by the wording in the contract of the CPA. The wording in the AG - OO CPA mitigates how many cycles per 100 flight hours. Cycles cost money. Too many of them and you are not profitable. So OO is forcing AG’s hand to give them longer routs with the wording of the CPA. AG can mix a few short routs in but not too many.
I did not say the Q400 routs flown by the Jet are profitable to QX. I did say that AS depends on them to fill their 737s. It is safe to say that the Q400 has been the bread and butter 737 filler upper for quite some time. The QX aspect of air group is all about creative accounting.

Flightsoffusion
05-15-2018, 04:33 PM
Where does Q400 sim take place? How about classroom?

Thanks

ASpilot2be
05-15-2018, 04:53 PM
Where does Q400 sim take place? How about classroom?

Thanks

Sim is in Seattle, and classroom in Portland.

WesternSkies
05-15-2018, 05:13 PM
Glad u asked. OO gets to indirectly decide what it will and wonít do by the wording in the contract of the CPA. The wording in the AG - OO CPA mitigates how many cycles per 100 flight hours. Cycles cost money. Too many of them and you are not profitable. So OO is forcing AGís hand to give them longer routs with the wording of the CPA. AG can mix a few short routs in but not too many.
I did not say the Q400 routs flown by the Jet are profitable to QX. I did say that AS depends on them to fill their 737s. It is safe to say that the Q400 has been the bread and butter 737 filler upper for quite some time. The QX aspect of air group is all about creative accounting.

How did you get access to the CPA?

Dashdrvr
05-15-2018, 07:42 PM
How did you get access to the CPA?

You won't it is confidential information. Thats why you won't see any specifics. What is quoted is readily accepted templates of CPA in the industry. Most if not all airline labor financial analyst will tell you this. Common sense dictates this as well. Would you spend 30 million on a airplane and get paid by the hour to not have a minimum hours per day. Additionally would you not create an agreement that minimizes the wear and tear of said aircraft without some financial penalty if the lessor tries to wear it out prematurely( takeoffs and landings). Kind of the same idea as leasing a car. Go over agreed miles(extra and tear) you pay more. Damage the car beyond normal wear and tear you pay more.

Flightsoffusion
05-15-2018, 09:04 PM
Sim is in Seattle, and classroom in Portland.

Thank you!

fivebyfive
05-16-2018, 01:53 PM
AG is in a real bind right now. They are still very dependent on the Q400 rout structure to feed AS. It was a great niche in the market. Now it is 2018 and the the ol’ battle ax Q’s life span is coming to an end. What’s more, the flying public wants Jets. Unfortunately for AG, E175s were never designed to be flown in 28 min to 1 hr cycles. Though not their fault, this is going to end up as a big loss for QX.

fenix1
05-17-2018, 12:14 AM
Is there any reason that AAG would HAVE TO assign all 30 of these E-jets to QX? Couldnít some of them still go to OO (in addition to the 35 + 8 already planned to go to OO)? In other words, those 30 E-Jets arenít QXís - theyíre AAGís and the original plan was to send them to QX, but thereís no hard & fast reason that AAG couldnít devise a new plan to reallocate them to OO, right?

The latest public documents show through 2019: 30 E jets with Horizon, 35 E jets plus 8 options with Skywest.
As far as cost goes there is no indication Horizon is more expensive than Skywest. What is different, Skywest very likely has an industry standard CPA that protects their investment in those jets in the form of daily utilization and stage length. In the end it is very expensive for AS to NOT use Skywest on the long routes. I really don't think Skywest cares one way or another if they do short or long legs. Long legs pay well and the financial downside of short legs is mitigated in the CPA.

ASpilot2be
05-17-2018, 12:23 AM
Is there any reason that AAG would HAVE TO assign all 30 of these E-jets to QX? Couldnít some of them still go to OO (in addition to the 35 + 8 already planned to go to OO)? In other words, those 30 E-Jets arenít QXís - theyíre AAGís and the original plan was to send them to QX, but thereís no hard & fast reason that AAG couldnít devise a new plan to reallocate them to OO, right?

There is a LOA regarding 30 aircraft for Horizon. Also any aircraft that get delivered cant be sent elsewhere and flown for Alaska.

amcnd
05-17-2018, 04:46 AM
There is a LOA regarding 30 aircraft for Horizon. Also any aircraft that get delivered cant be sent elsewhere and flown for Alaska.

Yet they still did that with 5 or so aircraft in the OO system with HUD/Autoland...

ASpilot2be
05-17-2018, 08:47 AM
Yet they still did that with 5 or so aircraft in the OO system with HUD/Autoland...

Right. But in the end we will still end up with 30. Also ours don't have a HUD.

fivebyfive
05-17-2018, 10:25 AM
Aside from the LOA, what leads your logic in thinking QX will still receive 30 E75s?

ASpilot2be
05-17-2018, 10:45 AM
Aside from the LOA, what leads your logic in thinking QX will still receive 30 E75s?

Just being optimistic. I really have no clue what's gonna happen.

fenix1
05-18-2018, 02:39 AM
As more 175ís are accepted by QX (hopefully......), would you guess that all will remain SEA-based? Or is establishment of another 175 base likely? (PDX??)

fenix1
05-18-2018, 02:54 AM
Why no HUD/autoland for QX 175ís?

In reading comments here & in seeing announcements about no more service to Mamooth, I canít help but ask whether 175ís are a good thing for QX or not... Will the shiny new toy fundamentally change who QX is and reduce QXís ability to feed mainline AS from just about anywhere in any weather? In other words, is QX going to lose its identity through the 175ís and their poor fit for the 28 min jumps?

I want QX to take on 175ís as much as anyone - my biggest & perhaps only reservation about aspiring to work for QX is adverse career progression due to flying the turboprop - but Iím wondering if the overall impact of the 175ís will be negative on QXís business. Hereís to hoping Iím not seeing the whole picture or looking at this through the right lens??

Right. But in the end we will still end up with 30. Also ours don't have a HUD.

Fixnem2Flyinem
05-18-2018, 03:39 AM
Why no HUD/autoland for QX 175ís?

In reading comments here & in seeing announcements about no more service to Mamooth, I canít help but ask whether 175ís are a good thing for QX or not... Will the shiny new toy fundamentally change who QX is and reduce QXís ability to feed mainline AS from just about anywhere in any weather? In other words, is QX going to lose its identity through the 175ís and their poor fit for the 28 min jumps?

I want QX to take on 175ís as much as anyone - my biggest & perhaps only reservation about aspiring to work for QX is adverse career progression due to flying the turboprop - but Iím wondering if the overall impact of the 175ís will be negative on QXís business. Hereís to hoping Iím not seeing the whole picture or looking at this through the right lens??

If career progression due to flying a turboprop is your main issue with the Q, have no worry. Plenty of guys are getting scooped up by the majors without a single hour of jet time. Guess youíll have to find another excuse besides the fact you just really want to fly a new jet! 😁. Kiddn

But seriously, being on the Q will not keep you at the regionals because it isnít keeping people here now is it? Nope theyíre off to the green pastures

ASpilot2be
05-18-2018, 11:35 AM
Why no HUD/autoland for QX 175ís?



There is autoland, but no HUD. The autoland takes place of the HUD in regards to CATIII. Hopefully the 175 will be CATIII by this fall.

snackysmores
05-18-2018, 12:46 PM
There is autoland, but no HUD. The autoland takes place of the HUD in regards to CATIII. Hopefully the 175 will be CATIII by this fall.

I think they were being optimistic when they said they would have CAT II by fall. Cat III probably 2019/2020.

ASpilot2be
05-18-2018, 08:38 PM
I think they were being optimistic when they said they would have CAT II by fall. Cat III probably 2019/2020.

That makes sense. I should have figured seeing how 4.2 went

Dashdrvr
05-18-2018, 11:40 PM
There is a LOA regarding 30 aircraft for Horizon. Also any aircraft that get delivered cant be sent elsewhere and flown for Alaska.
The LOA states AAG if doesn't deliver 30 jets to Horizon by 2021 the the CBA signed in 2016 becomes amendable as opposed to being amendable 2024

fenix1
05-19-2018, 02:18 AM
Got it - thanks a lot

There is autoland, but no HUD. The autoland takes place of the HUD in regards to CATIII. Hopefully the 175 will be CATIII by this fall.

fenix1
05-19-2018, 02:25 AM
Everyoneís situation/profile is a little different; with the vast majority of regional flying being jet now, I hate the idea that someone would get passed over simply because their 121 time was all/mostly turboprop, but the margins can be so slim between those that get the nod at a legacy/major and those that donít that it seems like this would be an obvious & easy discriminator. It shouldnít be that way given the quality/intensity of the hours one builds at QX in the Q400, but Iíve heard plenty of times that legacy/majors sometimes view those with a lot of turboprop hours as a higher training risk. Personally, the Q400 ops at QX seem like great experience so no SJS here or desire to fly less & push more buttons here!

If career progression due to flying a turboprop is your main issue with the Q, have no worry. Plenty of guys are getting scooped up by the majors without a single hour of jet time. Guess youíll have to find another excuse besides the fact you just really want to fly a new jet! 😁. Kiddn

But seriously, being on the Q will not keep you at the regionals because it isnít keeping people here now is it? Nope theyíre off to the green pastures



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