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View Full Version : Junior 500 age at DOH


Sliceback
06-06-2018, 02:39 PM
Not perfect because I didn't verify birthday vs DOH date. Just used birth year so there's some built-in inaccuracy. But close enough.

Covers September 2017 through May 2018. Junior 500(missed two, actually 498). No way to separate out flows vs OTS.

62 2
61 1
60 0

59 1
58 0
57 2
56 3
55 8
54 5
53 8
52 4
51 9
50 10

49 7
48 13
47 12
46 23
45 14
44 26
43 23
42 24
41 27
40 23

39 35
38 41
37 42
36 34
35 35
34 21
33 24
32 5
31 5
30 6

29 2
28 1
27 2
26 2

Median age is 39. Down from 42 in 2014-2015.

Youngest 5% is 33 and younger.
Youngest 10% is 34.
Youngest 20% is 35.
Youngest 1/3 is 37.

Oldest 5% is 53.
Oldest 10% is 51.
Oldest 20% is 46.
Oldest 1/3 is 43.

Obviously each class is different but this should give you a rough estimate of where you'd slot into your class based on your age.


thrust
06-07-2018, 06:39 AM
Great stuff. Any idea what seniority a 34-35 year old hired today could expect to be at when they reached 65 (approximately 2048)? Standard disclaimer of Black/white/purple/non-denominational/gender-neutral swans, etc notwithstanding.

Surprise
06-07-2018, 06:47 AM
Great stuff. Any idea what seniority a 34-35 year old hired today could expect to be at when they reached 65 (approximately 2048)? Standard disclaimer of Black/white/purple/non-denominational/gender-neutral swans, etc notwithstanding.

Hired today you’d retire around #267. That’s based on there being 266 people currently on the list aged 34 or younger. And like Slice above, I’m just doing it roughly with years, not actual birthdates.


dynap09
06-08-2018, 07:08 AM
Getting on to AA at 26 is a great career especially with current retirements hitting!

That's about 40 years to retirement age. Should be a comfortable retirement.

Saabs
06-08-2018, 07:34 AM
Getting on to AA at 26 is a great career especially with current retirements hitting!

That's about 40 years to retirement age. Should be a comfortable retirement.

40 years to retirement you should be worried about single pilot or no pilot.

Arado 234
06-08-2018, 08:32 PM
40 years to retirement you should be worried about single pilot or no pilot.

I have been using software since MS-DOS 3.2 and have not seen any PC, MAC (Apple), Os/2, or Android software that does not crash, freezes or reboots. Airbus OS (if you can call it that way) is pretty old, but after 4500 hours on type I have seen plenty things that make you wonder. I also wonder about older software on older machines, something "weird" is happening there.

Wanna get scared? Read up Tesla's X crash on autopilot in CA. That car accelerated right before it impacted a divider.

stillageek
06-09-2018, 02:23 PM
I have been using software since MS-DOS 3.2 and have not seen any PC, MAC (Apple), Os/2, or Android software that does not crash, freezes or reboots. Airbus OS (if you can call it that way) is pretty old, but after 4500 hours on type I have seen plenty things that make you wonder. I also wonder about older software on older machines, something "weird" is happening there.

Wanna get scared? Read up Tesla's X crash on autopilot in CA. That car accelerated right before it impacted a divider.

The Tesla crash operated as designed. It's a driver assistance feature. It was set to drive at 75 mph, however the car in front was driving slower so the Tesla was driving slower. The car ahead left thus the Tesla sped up. The driver failed to monitor and react. I have about 7000 flight hours and roughly 3000 Tesla autopilot hours. Autopilot is a horrible name for the Tesla driver assistance functions. I've driven from DFW to Orlando and back and used the autopilot feature 90% of the time. It makes for a more relaxed driving experience. The issue is misuse.

A330FoodCritic
06-09-2018, 03:33 PM
I have been using software since MS-DOS 3.2 and have not seen any PC, MAC (Apple), Os/2, or Android software that does not crash, freezes or reboots. Airbus OS (if you can call it that way) is pretty old, but after 4500 hours on type I have seen plenty things that make you wonder. I also wonder about older software on older machines, something "weird" is happening there.

Wanna get scared? Read up Tesla's X crash on autopilot in CA. That car accelerated right before it impacted a divider.

My computers, with SSDs, never crash, I have left them on for weeks.

Arado 234
06-09-2018, 04:12 PM
SSDs are not the issue, software is. Never had an ipad or other Os freeze up on you or (not) doing what it is supposed do? And I not not talking third party apps.

ShyGuy
06-09-2018, 04:35 PM
Tesla and Elon Musk are overrated.

I will never understand the human desire to automate themselves out of a job. Single-pilot commercial passenger jetliners is just stupid. As for the cars, most people can't drive worth a damn here. Driving standards (written tests, exams) are an absolute joke. And putting these safety features helps a little bit, but again shows you just how careless people are. An overwhelming majority of car accidents are human error - the driver. It's beyond pathetic.

Oh - people want flying cars :rolleyes:

Name User
06-09-2018, 07:52 PM
Tesla and Elon Musk are overrated.

I will never understand the human desire to automate themselves out of a job. Single-pilot commercial passenger jetliners is just stupid. As for the cars, most people can't drive worth a damn here. Driving standards (written tests, exams) are an absolute joke. And putting these safety features helps a little bit, but again shows you just how careless people are. An overwhelming majority of car accidents are human error - the driver. It's beyond pathetic.

Oh - people want flying cars :rolleyes:

Reason = $$$$

As to your second point about being mostly human error you literally just proved your point on why they will be automated.

Here's a nice podcast on it

Video: Podcast: Pilotless Airliner?How Realistic? How Soon? | Commercial Aviation content from Aviation Week (http://aviationweek.com/commercial-aviation/podcast-pilotless-airliner-how-realistic-how-soon#comments)

ShyGuy
06-09-2018, 08:09 PM
Reason = $$$$

As to your second point about being mostly human error you literally just proved your point on why they will be automated.

Here's a nice podcast on it

Video: Podcast: Pilotless Airliner?How Realistic? How Soon? | Commercial Aviation content from Aviation Week (http://aviationweek.com/commercial-aviation/podcast-pilotless-airliner-how-realistic-how-soon#comments)

Since 2010 it's been extremely safe for 121 airlines in this country. As for those automated machines, they are still programmed by humans. They will crash too.

Name User
06-10-2018, 04:59 AM
Since 2010 it's been extremely safe for 121 airlines in this country. As for those automated machines, they are still programmed by humans. They will crash too.

???

I never said airlines are unsafe. Your thought is pilot less planes are stupid. Well, maybe to you they are but to the industry they represent an enormous opportunity to make money (did you listen to that podcast?).

At this point the only thing stopping them is government regulation and the FAA.

Then you mentioned cars and literally stated the reasons WHY automation will take over, you just didn't realize it.

Sure some will crash but with 40,000 people being killed annually, the vast majority through driver error, automation will save tens of thousands of lives and billions of dollars a year. Insurance rates will drop, saving consumers money as well.

Castle Bravo
06-10-2018, 06:04 AM
The driver failed to monitor and react.

So what happens when they remove those pesky steering wheels and brake pedals? Then you're just along for the ride, which is the autonomous car designer's ultimate goal.

AFTrainerGuy
06-10-2018, 06:29 AM
???

I never said airlines are unsafe. Your thought is pilot less planes are stupid. Well, maybe to you they are but to the industry they represent an enormous opportunity to make money (did you listen to that podcast?).

At this point the only thing stopping them is government regulation and the FAA.

Then you mentioned cars and literally stated the reasons WHY automation will take over, you just didn't realize it.

Sure some will crash but with 40,000 people being killed annually, the vast majority through driver error, automation will save tens of thousands of lives and billions of dollars a year. Insurance rates will drop, saving consumers money as well.

We had a guy come speak to our squadron. He talked about this. It was one mans opinion, but one that consults almost every major corporation about safety, automation, and “how to be like airlines in terms of safety margins”. It was a 2 hour presentation so I couldn’t possibly do him justice.

Essentially, he said what airlines do is statistically impossible. Until 2018, there hadn’t been 1 death on a US Carrier since 2009. That’s billions of people and 0 deaths.

We accept car fatalities... like 40,000 a year as normal. In aviation, we do not. Every little thing is scrutinized and blown up in media.

In essence, he says, that’s where the problem in automated cars vs planes arises. The car companies just have to be safer than 40,000 a year (which they are apparently but nowhere near perfection), but the planes have to match our current track record which almost is perfect. It’s not that it can’t be done, it’s just that it has to be done better than we do now, or equal to it and that isn’t here yet my a long shot. And as he says... there lies the problem.

He also had a point about legal ramifications... so far not one automated crash has gone to court. Every time it’s settled. Pandora’s Box will be open on the first court case where “blame” gets assigned and $ gets paid out.

Anyway... really who knows. I think the technology is there, but that podcast is just like the guy i heard, just another persons’ opinion. I’m not worried about tomorrow or next year, but I’m not laying any bets either way on 10-20 years from now.

I’ll just continue to enjoy the career, save $, and if it happens, hopefully/most likely be in a position to walk away and enjoy retirement instead of scrambling for “what now”

Thedude86
06-10-2018, 07:34 AM
I know the technology will improve, but think about it. Automated cars make up about .00001% of the cars on the road today. Yet, it seems as if I hear about one killing someone once every 2-3 months or so. Not to mention I’m sure there would be a lot more accidents if it wasn’t for a “test driver” monitoring the automobile and taking over when it *******s up. Just imagine those statistics if every car on the road was autonomous. Plus, I bet half the population wouldn’t even monitor the controls. They’d have their heads buried in their phone on their way to work and won’t notice an imminent crash/death coming right at them. UAVs don’t have much of a safety record and they don’t have to worry about changing lanes in heavy traffic, stop lights, pedestrian cross walks, or little Johnny running out in the street for his soccer ball at the last second.

AFTrainerGuy
06-10-2018, 09:46 AM
I know the technology will improve, but think about it. Automated cars make up about .00001% of the cars on the road today. Yet, it seems as if I hear about one killing someone once every 2-3 months or so. Not to mention I’m sure there would be a lot more accidents if it wasn’t for a “test driver” monitoring the automobile and taking over when it *******s up. Just imagine those statistics if every car on the road was autonomous. Plus, I bet half the population wouldn’t even monitor the controls. They’d have their heads buried in their phone on their way to work and won’t notice an imminent crash/death coming right at them. UAVs don’t have much of a safety record and they don’t have to worry about changing lanes in heavy traffic, stop lights, pedestrian cross walks, or little Johnny running out in the street for his soccer ball at the last second.

Devils advocate... some of those acccidents have been people hitting the autonomous car and user error of system limitations.

Thing is, like aviation, what is the acceptable accident rate the general public will “allow” when/if it goes fully autonomous (cars or planes). Right now even just one wreck got them thrown outta AZ. Furthermore, who is at fault when the inevitable fatal accident happens (processing chip maker, software company, car company, insurance, government, app company, etc...)?

I don’t think it’s the technology... it’s the other things which make it anyone’s guess if/when/ever these things come to fruition.

Point I got from the speaker was “there’s a lot more issues than just if it’s capable of being done”

ShyGuy
06-10-2018, 09:53 AM
???

I never said airlines are unsafe. Your thought is pilot less planes are stupid. Well, maybe to you they are but to the industry they represent an enormous opportunity to make money (did you listen to that podcast?).

At this point the only thing stopping them is government regulation and the FAA.

Then you mentioned cars and literally stated the reasons WHY automation will take over, you just didn't realize it.

Sure some will crash but with 40,000 people being killed annually, the vast majority through driver error, automation will save tens of thousands of lives and billions of dollars a year. Insurance rates will drop, saving consumers money as well.

There are no pilot less commercial jetliners today or in production at Airbus and Boeing. Car automation is different, and as we've seen today have limitations and still have accidents. As a current pilot, I'm not too concerned. Maybe future generations will have some concerns and maybe not pursue this career.

Name User
06-10-2018, 05:04 PM
On a side note the A350 is self dispatching. So there's another job going away. It's basically flown with a mouse.

Name User
06-10-2018, 05:09 PM
I know the technology will improve, but think about it. Automated cars make up about .00001% of the cars on the road today. Yet, it seems as if I hear about one killing someone once every 2-3 months or so. Not to mention I’m sure there would be a lot more accidents if it wasn’t for a “test driver” monitoring the automobile and taking over when it *******s up. Just imagine those statistics if every car on the road was autonomous. Plus, I bet half the population wouldn’t even monitor the controls. They’d have their heads buried in their phone on their way to work and won’t notice an imminent crash/death coming right at them. UAVs don’t have much of a safety record and they don’t have to worry about changing lanes in heavy traffic, stop lights, pedestrian cross walks, or little Johnny running out in the street for his soccer ball at the last second.
Rear end collisions on cars equipped with self braking are down ~40%.

https://www.theverge.com/2016/1/27/10854478/iihs-collision-warning-autobrake-volvo-city-safety-research

That is saving everyone piles of money. It will only get better as automation increases.

Autonomous cars are actually much harder to implement than aircraft. They would be easy if all of a sudden everything was automated. But, you can't really do that in current society.

Name User
06-10-2018, 05:15 PM
We had a guy come speak to our squadron. He talked about this. It was one mans opinion, but one that consults almost every major corporation about safety, automation, and “how to be like airlines in terms of safety margins”. It was a 2 hour presentation so I couldn’t possibly do him justice.

Essentially, he said what airlines do is statistically impossible. Until 2018, there hadn’t been 1 death on a US Carrier since 2009. That’s billions of people and 0 deaths.

We accept car fatalities... like 40,000 a year as normal. In aviation, we do not. Every little thing is scrutinized and blown up in media.

In essence, he says, that’s where the problem in automated cars vs planes arises. The car companies just have to be safer than 40,000 a year (which they are apparently but nowhere near perfection), but the planes have to match our current track record which almost is perfect. It’s not that it can’t be done, it’s just that it has to be done better than we do now, or equal to it and that isn’t here yet my a long shot. And as he says... there lies the problem.

He also had a point about legal ramifications... so far not one automated crash has gone to court. Every time it’s settled. Pandora’s Box will be open on the first court case where “blame” gets assigned and $ gets paid out.

Anyway... really who knows. I think the technology is there, but that podcast is just like the guy i heard, just another persons’ opinion. I’m not worried about tomorrow or next year, but I’m not laying any bets either way on 10-20 years from now.

I’ll just continue to enjoy the career, save $, and if it happens, hopefully/most likely be in a position to walk away and enjoy retirement instead of scrambling for “what now”

That's a really good point. On a commercial scale they must be near perfect.

On a smaller, GA type or 135 scale, accidents are fairly frequent. I can see smaller C208 aircraft being integrated into the NAS flying FedEx feed at first.