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Sliceback
07-07-2018, 05:46 PM
Source - apc airline profile data. Took half of 2018 and half of 2028 to estimate the 10 yr forecast.

AA - 59% (57% using AA data vs apc data)
DL - 44%
UPS - 43% (has 2013 data so it might be outdated)
UA - 42%
FDX - 40%
SW - 27%


AirBear
07-07-2018, 06:20 PM
Source - apc airline profile data. Took half of 2018 and half of 2028 to estimate the 10 yr forecast.

AA - 59% (57% using AA data vs apc data)
DL - 44%
UPS - 43% (has 2013 data so it might be outdated)
UA - 42%
FDX - 40%
SW - 27%

https://farm1.staticflickr.com/970/41869143821_bd4ddebb93_c.jpg (https://flic.kr/p/26MQiL2)Big 3 Retirements (https://flic.kr/p/26MQiL2)

TransWorld
07-07-2018, 07:07 PM
Every time I see the numbers it takes my breath away! If you think the regionals are having difficulty recruiting today. . .

And remember some of that tail will kick up with the pilots getting back into flying as a second career.

Oh, to be 21 again!


Sliceback
07-07-2018, 07:26 PM
Every time I see the numbers it takes my breath away! If you think the regionals are having difficulty recruiting today. . .

And remember some of that tail will kick up with the pilots getting back into flying as a second career.

Oh, to be 21 again!

It's only approx. 9800 pilots at UA/DL/AA in the next five years and 19700 in the next 10 yrs.

Remember the old days when the F/A's didn't want to wear their five year wings because they were gold? "You're still not married??"

At the current rate, except for the super senior who aren't going anywhere, will the majority of regional Captains have less than five years LOS? That will be a huge change from 5-10 years ago. Will it become a rare sighting to see a younger Captain with a five year pin? If it comes to be that will be a great bump for the younger generation.

TransWorld
07-07-2018, 07:36 PM
Remember the old days when the F/A's didn't want to wear their five year wings because they were gold? "You're still not married?Ē

Yes, except (to be polically incorrect for a moment), I donít recall them being called F/Aís. :eek:

FLYBOYMATTHEW
07-07-2018, 08:19 PM
Of course, this will only be an issue if there are still 2-man crewed cockpits in 10 years.

deadseal
07-08-2018, 09:39 AM
Of course, this will only be an issue if there are still 2-man crewed cockpits in 10 years.

There are so many errors caught by either pilot I just canít realistically see this happen. Maybe it will, but in the first 6 months there would be a crash and then back we go to 2 person ops. Plus youíd have to find a bunch of politicians that would stake their name to the safety of single pilot ops, and since they canít even agree to disagree on anything......I highly doubt anything will change anytime soon.

bozobigtop
07-08-2018, 09:56 AM
Management doesn't see it that way. It's all about cutting costs in which having regulators in your pocket makes it easy.

chrisreedrules
07-08-2018, 10:10 AM
I donít think relief is coming on the 1500 hour rule. I think theyíll try a different angle and raise the retirement age. It wonít solve their problem, but it will soften the blow.

Kebert Xela
07-08-2018, 10:49 AM
Source - apc airline profile data. Took half of 2018 and half of 2028 to estimate the 10 yr forecast.

AA - 59% (57% using AA data vs apc data)
DL - 44%
UPS - 43% (has 2013 data so it might be outdated)
UA - 42%
FDX - 40%
SW - 27%

Thanks for the numbers Slice. Any idea of the hiring numbers each has had in the last 5 years? For example I believe FDX has hired 30% of their ďlistĒ the last few years. So 40% may retire but that wonít be the same relative movement if they just started hiring a year ago.

Itíd be interesting to see a comparison of % retirements to % hired in last 5 years.

I would guess a new hire today would have greater relative seniority after 10 years at AA vs DL or FDX due to the amount of hiring they have done last couple years, not solely because of the amount of retirements alone. Any thoughts or numbers to that logic? Am I looking at incorrectly at all?

m3113n1a1
07-08-2018, 10:57 AM
Thanks for the numbers Slice. Any idea of the hiring numbers each has had in the last 5 years? For example I believe FDX has hired 30% of their “list” the last few years. So 40% may retire but that won’t be the same relative movement if they just started hiring a year ago.

It’d be interesting to see a comparison of % retirements to % hired in last 5 years.

I would guess a new hire today would have greater relative seniority after 10 years at AA vs DL or FDX due to the amount of hiring they have done last couple years, not solely because of the amount of retirements alone. Any thoughts or numbers to that logic? Am I looking at incorrectly at all?

If these projections are current, then it shouldn't matter how much hiring any airline has done up to this point. If the seniority lists stay the same size in 10 years at AA you'll be 41% seniority, Delta 56%, UPS 57%, UA 58%, etc, etc. But clearly AA has the most potential for insane movement in the next 10 years!

contrails
07-08-2018, 12:04 PM
If these projections are current, then it shouldn't matter how much hiring any airline has done up to this point.

I think it's extremely relevant to see how much hiring each has done in, say, the past five years.

One could see a much different career for their last ~20 years if there are 4000 pilots ahead of them that are mostly younger. Might get to XX% in whatever amount of time, and then plateau at one carrier vs. continue moving up at another.

chrisreedrules
07-08-2018, 12:08 PM
Any one else seeing potential for more mergers?

badflaps
07-08-2018, 12:09 PM
Yes, except (to be polically incorrect for a moment), I donít recall them being called F/Aís. :eek:

At Twenty Wobbleys they were "Hosties"

Kebert Xela
07-08-2018, 12:58 PM
I think it's extremely relevant to see how much hiring each has done in, say, the past five years.

One could see a much different career for their last ~20 years if there are 4000 pilots ahead of them that are mostly younger. Might get to XX% in whatever amount of time, and then plateau at one carrier vs. continue moving up at another.

That was my thought process exactly

Sliceback
07-08-2018, 01:03 PM
The recent hiring is an issue. It shows you how many younger guys have recently joined the list ahead of you. 'Bow wave' theory. On the bow wave you get pushed along. The guys by the stern get chewed up by the propellers if they're unlucky.

Going back exactly five years AA has hired approx. 2730 guys. That's 19% of the total list. Anyone have the DL/UA/SW/FX/UPS numbers?

A look back beyond five years gets really tricky to figure out at AA because of how the seniority list merger mixes up DOH's. The third listers are younger but the LUS and LAA guys aren't.

It gets trickier making a 1:1 comparison of new hires since not all of them are equal. About half of AA's are flow throughs and they are about 10-12 yrs older than the average OTS new hire. So there's a second mini retirement wave that the other new hires will benefit from as the F/T's retire.

Not all seniority numbers are equal. UPS is all w/b. JB and SW have none. Amongst the big 3 UA has more w/b's than AA and DL. But AA has more large w/b's than DL. So being #3000 might be more valuable at DL vs. AA, both of which might lag being #3000 at UA, but at #1000 the pecking order might be UA, then AA, then DL.

Boondoggle
07-08-2018, 02:44 PM
http://fapa.aero/hiringhistory.asp

Lists the recent hiring numbers.

Kebert Xela
07-08-2018, 03:12 PM
The recent hiring is an issue. It shows you how many younger guys have recently joined the list ahead of you. 'Bow wave' theory. On the bow wave you get pushed along. The guys by the stern get chewed up by the propellers if they're unlucky.

Going back exactly five years AA has hired approx. 2730 guys. That's 19% of the total list. Anyone have the DL/UA/SW/FX/UPS numbers?

A look back beyond five years gets really tricky to figure out at AA because of how the seniority list merger mixes up DOH's. The third listers are younger but the LUS and LAA guys aren't.

It gets trickier making a 1:1 comparison of new hires since not all of them are equal. About half of AA's are flow throughs and they are about 10-12 yrs older than the average OTS new hire. So there's a second mini retirement wave that the other new hires will benefit from as the F/T's retire.

Not all seniority numbers are equal. UPS is all w/b. JB and SW have none. Amongst the big 3 UA has more w/b's than AA and DL. But AA has more large w/b's than DL. So being #3000 might be more valuable at DL vs. AA, both of which might lag being #3000 at UA, but at #1000 the pecking order might be UA, then AA, then DL.

All excellent points, big reason why Iím thinking of passing on an interview at FDX and stay where I am!

As a side note hereís a somewhat outdated chart of the legacy fleets. If it holds somewhat true I was surprised that AA has nearly as many if not more w/bís than UA. Of course group 5 aircraft are retired (747s) so Iím not sure of the number of other retirements since this was published. Just thought it was interesting.

Kebert Xela
07-08-2018, 03:13 PM
http://fapa.aero/hiringhistory.asp

Lists the recent hiring numbers.

I lost that link, thanks!

Sliceback
07-08-2018, 03:39 PM
Missing the USAIR hiring data. 500+ third listers? Hired mid to late 2000's?

hammer pants
07-08-2018, 03:53 PM
UPS has hired just over 600 pilots since 2008. Roughly 425 of those coming after 2017. Total pilot count is just under 2800.

Retirements are picking up as guys are just now starting to max out their pensions. We also have around 35 new airframes coming thru 2022. Retirements plus growth should lead to rapid advancement.

Sliceback
07-08-2018, 05:17 PM
Missing the USAIR hiring data. 500+ third listers? Hired mid to late 2000's?

Apparently it was 574. 200x -20xx (2008-2013??)

AAL24
07-08-2018, 05:40 PM
All excellent points, big reason why Iím thinking of passing on an interview at FDX and stay where I am!

As a side note hereís a somewhat outdated chart of the legacy fleets. If it holds somewhat true I was surprised that AA has nearly as many if not more w/bís than UA. Of course group 5 aircraft are retired (747s) so Iím not sure of the number of other retirements since this was published. Just thought it was interesting.

I think whatís more important is the percentage of the fleet thatís widebody. AA also has many more total airframes than UAL. United has a much higher percentage of widebody flying vs total flying. You have to be in the top 20% of the seniority list at AA to hold group 4 CA (777,787,330). That seems like it will change though as AA replaces 767s with 787s creating more group 4 jobs.

Noworkallplay
07-08-2018, 05:42 PM
Thanks for the numbers Slice. Any idea of the hiring numbers each has had in the last 5 years? For example I believe FDX has hired 30% of their ďlistĒ the last few years. So 40% may retire but that wonít be the same relative movement if they just started hiring a year ago.

Itíd be interesting to see a comparison of % retirements to % hired in last 5 years.

I would guess a new hire today would have greater relative seniority after 10 years at AA vs DL or FDX due to the amount of hiring they have done last couple years, not solely because of the amount of retirements alone. Any thoughts or numbers to that logic? Am I looking at incorrectly at all?

As a late 2016 hire at FedEx I can tell you we havent hired 30 percent of our list in the past few years. In the past 4 years we have hired about 900 and our seniority list is about 4800. That is less than 20%. The fleet is also growing the past 3 years and if you look at planned aircraft retirement and deliveries the growth continues for some time. Onviously this is due to freight demand around the globe. The last two bids the past two years have seen numerous pilots awarded 757 Capt. with less than 3 years on property. Just wanted to give a little more accurate data for the airline I know.

busdriver12
07-08-2018, 05:51 PM
All excellent points, big reason why Iím thinking of passing on an interview at FDX and stay where I am!



Yet there is far more to this job than how many people might retire in front of you. When you are considering pax vs cargo, there are some major differences. Some of us might prefer flying pax, others prefer cargo. After flying for one of the big three, I wouldn't trade the #1 seniority number at a pax carrier for the bottom number at FedEx, despite our last mediocre contract. You should really consider all the things that are important to you personally.

sherpster
07-08-2018, 05:54 PM
Yet there is far more to this job than how many people might retire in front of you. When you are considering pax vs cargo, there are some major differences. Some of us might prefer flying pax, others prefer cargo. After flying for one of the big three, I wouldn't trade the #1 seniority number at a pax carrier for the bottom number at FedEx, despite our last mediocre contract. You should really consider all the things that are important to you personally.

Dumbest statement on the internet

busdriver12
07-08-2018, 06:03 PM
Dumbest statement on the internet

You obviously haven't read my other 2,166 posts.:D

May sound incredibly dumb to you....but it is certainly true. Not everyone has the same perspective, nor the same priorities. There is far more to the picture than how many people might retire in front of you.

Noworkallplay
07-08-2018, 06:11 PM
Yet there is far more to this job than how many people might retire in front of you. When you are considering pax vs cargo, there are some major differences. Some of us might prefer flying pax, others prefer cargo. After flying for one of the big three, I wouldn't trade the #1 seniority number at a pax carrier for the bottom number at FedEx, despite our last mediocre contract. You should really consider all the things that are important to you personally.

Im with you busdriver. As someone who left a major for FedEx I would never go back to the major I left. The schedual and money isnt even in the same zipcode.

ShyGuy
07-08-2018, 07:58 PM
You obviously haven't read my other 2,166 posts.:D

May sound incredibly dumb to you....but it is certainly true. Not everyone has the same perspective, nor the same priorities. There is far more to the picture than how many people might retire in front of you.

I think he meant that this didn't sound right:

"I wouldn't trade the #1 seniority number at a pax carrier for the bottom number at FedEx, despite our last mediocre contract."



Well duh. Why would you give up #1 (777/787/350) Captain to go be bottom plug at Fedex?

busdriver12
07-08-2018, 08:43 PM
I think he meant that this didn't sound right:

"I wouldn't trade the #1 seniority number at a pax carrier for the bottom number at FedEx, despite our last mediocre contract."



Well duh. Why would you give up #1 (777/787/350) Captain to go be bottom plug at Fedex?

Because it's a completely different sort of job. I don't care for pax/flight attendant contact, and I like being able to drop or swap my entire month. Those are my priorities, and pay is not that important. Other people might enjoy the social contact, hate night flying, and wouldn't fly freight unless they were desperate.

contrails
07-08-2018, 08:51 PM
Because it's a completely different sort of job. I don't care for pax/flight attendant contact, and I like being able to drop or swap my entire month. Those are my priorities, and pay is not that important. Other people might enjoy the social contact, hate night flying, and wouldn't fly freight unless they were desperate.

I generally have about 2 minutes of pax/FA contact per workday.

Hi, I'm contrails, nice to meet you. Sure, I'll take a bottle of water and may we get a trashbag please...thanks. No, we layover a bit longer than that, so we'll head downtown. Great, thanks again.

I think I'd enjoy freight but I will also say that I can drop/swap my entire month, not sure if you presumed that to be a thing unique to where you are but I don't think it is.

Both have their pros and cons.

m3113n1a1
07-08-2018, 09:54 PM
Because it's a completely different sort of job. I don't care for pax/flight attendant contact, and I like being able to drop or swap my entire month. Those are my priorities, and pay is not that important. Other people might enjoy the social contact, hate night flying, and wouldn't fly freight unless they were desperate.

You're making me regret my choice of a legacy pax carrier over FedEx. No pax/flight attendant contact sounds great.

Kebert Xela
07-08-2018, 11:43 PM
I think whatís more important is the percentage of the fleet thatís widebody. AA also has many more total airframes than UAL. United has a much higher percentage of widebody flying vs total flying. You have to be in the top 20% of the seniority list at AA to hold group 4 CA (777,787,330). That seems like it will change though as AA replaces 767s with 787s creating more group 4 jobs.


Yep didnít think of that, I lost my thought process after a few variables:D

Squirrel!!

Kebert Xela
07-08-2018, 11:47 PM
As a late 2016 hire at FedEx I can tell you we havent hired 30 percent of our list in the past few years. In the past 4 years we have hired about 900 and our seniority list is about 4800. That is less than 20%. The fleet is also growing the past 3 years and if you look at planned aircraft retirement and deliveries the growth continues for some time. Onviously this is due to freight demand around the globe. The last two bids the past two years have seen numerous pilots awarded 757 Capt. with less than 3 years on property. Just wanted to give a little more accurate data for the airline I know.

Thatís good news, thank you for the update. Guess Iím a little off on my numbers. Are you guys experiencing a training backlog? I thought folks were being award 75 CA but waiting a looong time before actually getting there.

Noworkallplay
07-09-2018, 04:07 AM
Thatís good news, thank you for the update. Guess Iím a little off on my numbers. Are you guys experiencing a training backlog? I thought folks were being award 75 CA but waiting a looong time before actually getting there.

No back log. Our bids for equipment only happen about once a year and that training letter will take up the whole year. So lets say your awarded 757 capt on the bid in Febuary but you may not train out until next fall. All the training slots monthly are bid for in seniority order.

sherpster
07-09-2018, 04:28 AM
You obviously haven't read my other 2,166 posts.:D

May sound incredibly dumb to you....but it is certainly true. Not everyone has the same perspective, nor the same priorities. There is far more to the picture than how many people might retire in front of you.

So for clarification: #1 at AA/DAL/UAL where you can fly when, what, and where you want for bottom of the list at Fedex flying night hub turns and flying out of Memphis? Just want to be clear thats what you are saying. Have you ever flown pax before? Very little contact. If you hate the terminal and TSA maybe I would get it but even then, #1 for the bottom? I stand by my statement.

BTW, I am a new hire at AA and I have been able to swap/drop my schedule completely around this summer and this is our "peak" season. Amazing the ability to change your schedule here. No weekends in July with only 6 days of flying and I turned around and picked up a 2.5 day trip ( wanted to visit a friend in a layover city) so now I am at 9 days. I am junior, imagine if I was senior (like say #1). They say AA has the worst contract, if this is bad then I cant imagine how good UAL and Delta are for trip trading and dropping. But hey, enjoy FedEx and I will enjoy AA.

Sliceback
07-09-2018, 07:14 AM
When you get senior enough on a w/b you hold trips that guys want. Bam, everything is gone. I've dropped my entire award in months past and replaced it with other flying. If I wanted to I could have dropped to zero.

The top guys are flying about 2.5 trips per month.

busdriver12
07-09-2018, 09:27 AM
So for clarification: #1 at AA/DAL/UAL where you can fly when, what, and where you want for bottom of the list at Fedex flying night hub turns and flying out of Memphis? Just want to be clear thats what you are saying. Have you ever flown pax before? Very little contact. If you hate the terminal and TSA maybe I would get it but even then, #1 for the bottom? I stand by my statement.

BTW, I am a new hire at AA and I have been able to swap/drop my schedule completely around this summer and this is our "peak" season. Amazing the ability to change your schedule here. No weekends in July with only 6 days of flying and I turned around and picked up a 2.5 day trip ( wanted to visit a friend in a layover city) so now I am at 9 days. I am junior, imagine if I was senior (like say #1). They say AA has the worst contract, if this is bad then I cant imagine how good UAL and Delta are for trip trading and dropping. But hey, enjoy FedEx and I will enjoy AA.

Yes, I have flown pax before, and there was plenty of contact with fa's/pax. I was always ending up dealing with pax, walking some old lady to her gate, expected to give directions and have intimate knowledge of every airport, just because I was a person in uniform. People glaring at me for being the last to show (called up on reserve), as if it was my fault the flight was delayed. FA's constantly coming up to the cockpit to chat with the pilots. And nowadays everyone has an iPhone camera on them. This is all fine for someone who is an extrovert and thrives on this....painful for an introvert. If we have an engine failure, smoke and fumes, we don't even make the newspaper. We might not even get an email from the company about it after filing an ASAP report.

I worked 1/2-2/3 a schedule for 18 years at FedEx when my kids were at home. Having the option to drop everything the months you want off, and pick up as much as you want the months you want to work extra is key. I'm glad AA has flexibility now, as back in the day what you were awarded was what you flew. Your hours increases were limited, and options to swap/drop were nil.

If I was a newhire, and I could be one of those Delta 900K+ captains on the first day for the next 30 years, yes, I'd choose that. But in my current situation where lifestyle is key and pay is not, I'd still be the bottom guy at FedEx, since people are moving up quickly, some are still hired into widebody slots. I'm flying widebody daytime deadhead trips with newhires, and it amazes me. However, at some point this is going to all come to an end, and no, I wouldn't want to be the last one hired into the right seat of the 757 for the rest of my career.

I apologize for the thread drift.

Noworkallplay
07-09-2018, 09:37 AM
So for clarification: #1 at AA/DAL/UAL where you can fly when, what, and where you want for bottom of the list at Fedex flying night hub turns and flying out of Memphis? Just want to be clear thats what you are saying. Have you ever flown pax before? Very little contact. If you hate the terminal and TSA maybe I would get it but even then, #1 for the bottom? I stand by my statement.

BTW, I am a new hire at AA and I have been able to swap/drop my schedule completely around this summer and this is our "peak" season. Amazing the ability to change your schedule here. No weekends in July with only 6 days of flying and I turned around and picked up a 2.5 day trip ( wanted to visit a friend in a layover city) so now I am at 9 days. I am junior, imagine if I was senior (like say #1). They say AA has the worst contract, if this is bad then I cant imagine how good UAL and Delta are for trip trading and dropping. But hey, enjoy FedEx and I will enjoy AA.

Sherp,

AA is a great gig and no one is discrediting this. As one who left the big 3 in late 2016 I can tell you unequivocally that the money and quality of life for me as a cummutter is way better now at FDX. I have been a WB FO from day 1. I upgrade to 757 Capt next year. I am 31 years old so do the math. Its simple math to add up the rates from AA and the rates from FDX and how long you will spend on each at each property. As you said AA is still lacking in its contract. I left one of the passanger ops that you labeled as a better contract place and I am saying my earning over a career are staggeringly diffrent now that im at FDX. Vacation, retirement and hourly rates are some big differences. Also we are almost always on soft time on a trip so a 4 day that pays 24 hours only has a block of less than 10 hours almost always domestically. Lots of 32+ hour overnights or weekend layovers for 2.5 days. A week of vacation with hard line bidding gets you the entire month off at FDX this is not the case with PBS. These are all the things I weighed when I made my choice. Its not a comparison contest im just stating the facts from a perpesctive of a guy who did both sides of the house.

intrepidcv11
07-19-2018, 06:01 AM
The leaps that artificial intelligence is gaining with 25+ years has me nervous about my career at a passenger carrier. If I were flying freight I would be doubly so.

AwkwardTurtle
07-19-2018, 11:24 AM
The leaps that artificial intelligence is gaining with 25+ years has me nervous about my career at a passenger carrier. If I were flying freight I would be doubly so.

FedEx just bought a plethora of airplanes designed in the 1980s and 70s. They still operate planes built in the 70s and retired the 727 only 5 years ago. Itís the pax carriers that are jizzing all over themselves trying to get the 787, A220 or whatever the latest is. Iíd be more nervous if I was a passenger pilot than the cargo guys.

sherpster
07-19-2018, 01:01 PM
FedEx just bought a plethora of airplanes designed in the 1980s and 70s. They still operate planes built in the 70s and retired the 727 only 5 years ago. Itís the pax carriers that are jizzing all over themselves trying to get the 787, A220 or whatever the latest is. Iíd be more nervous if I was a passenger pilot than the cargo guys.

I am new to 121 pax flying and you underestimate the fear the general public has about airplanes. I have already seen people get off the airplane for the slightest little maintenance or weather issue. You are flat out crazy to think pax carries will be automated before cargo. CRAZY.
But I get it, you have a lot of day flying and your commute is the easiest and Memphis isnt that hot in the summer. Got it.

Al Czervik
07-19-2018, 01:11 PM
FedEx just bought a plethora of airplanes designed in the 1980s and 70s. They still operate planes built in the 70s and retired the 727 only 5 years ago. Itís the pax carriers that are jizzing all over themselves trying to get the 787, A220 or whatever the latest is. Iíd be more nervous if I was a passenger pilot than the cargo guys.

Not a very good point.

wilco811
07-19-2018, 03:17 PM
The A220 and 787 A350 all require at least 2 pilots. Whatís the difference from FedEx buying a plethora of new airplanes? They all need two pilots. FedEx just bought a plethora of airplanes designed in the 1980s and 70s. They still operate planes built in the 70s and retired the 727 only 5 years ago. Itís the pax carriers that are jizzing all over themselves trying to get the 787, A220 or whatever the latest is. Iíd be more nervous if I was a passenger pilot than the cargo guys.

intrepidcv11
07-19-2018, 04:39 PM
FedEx just bought a plethora of airplanes designed in the 1980s and 70s. They still operate planes built in the 70s and retired the 727 only 5 years ago. It’s the pax carriers that are jizzing all over themselves trying to get the 787, A220 or whatever the latest is. I’d be more nervous if I was a passenger pilot than the cargo guys.

Was that the company that took an airliner certified for a 3 member crew and invested as much as it took to make it a 2 man crew? That one right?

Anderson
07-19-2018, 06:06 PM
Was that the company that took an airliner certified for a 3 member crew and invested as much as it took to make it a 2 man crew? That one right?



So youíre saying FedEx paved the way for two-man cockpits? Youíre unwittingly supporting his point.


Sent from my iPhone using Tapatalk

busdriver12
07-19-2018, 09:28 PM
I am new to 121 pax flying and you underestimate the fear the general public has about airplanes. I have already seen people get off the airplane for the slightest little maintenance or weather issue. You are flat out crazy to think pax carries will be automated before cargo. CRAZY.
But I get it, you have a lot of day flying and your commute is the easiest and Memphis isnt that hot in the summer. Got it.

Well, did you see that his information says that he joined APC in Jan 2018, and is a 737 FO. And you think he is making his points because he's a FedEx pilot? Yeah, we have all those 737's on property......:eek:

intrepidcv11
07-19-2018, 11:08 PM
So you’re saying FedEx paved the way for two-man cockpits? You’re unwittingly supporting his point.


Sent from my iPhone using Tapatalk

I am simply offering a counter to the claim that buying older airplanes leads to better long term pilot job longevity then new ones. Apparently u are lack the basic intellect to understand that.

Celeste
07-19-2018, 11:53 PM
I think it's extremely relevant to see how much hiring each has done in, say, the past five years.

One could see a much different career for their last ~20 years if there are 4000 pilots ahead of them that are mostly younger. Might get to XX% in whatever amount of time, and then plateau at one carrier vs. continue moving up at another.

Exactly. I personally know a bunch of under 30 year olds that have been picked up by delta. They seem to love the 24-28 year old demographic. I believe as a 33 year old, I would never break into the top 1000 on the delta seniority list. they are no longer my top choice.

saturn
07-20-2018, 12:45 AM
FedEx just bought a plethora of airplanes designed in the 1980s and 70s. They still operate planes built in the 70s and retired the 727 only 5 years ago. Itís the pax carriers that are jizzing all over themselves trying to get the 787, A220 or whatever the latest is. Iíd be more nervous if I was a passenger pilot than the cargo guys.

They don't upgrade to new airplanes because WHO CARES! If it looks old in the back, WHO CARES! If the cockpit is old...if its still safe to fly, why spend the money on it? Buy new planes with only 0/1 pilots? That DOES make $$ sense. And again, your customer does NOT care, just get my box to me on time. Box burned up in fireball crash by drone? Well at least we had insurance.

coryk
07-20-2018, 04:46 AM
They don't upgrade to new airplanes because WHO CARES! If it looks old in the back, WHO CARES! If the cockpit is old...if its still safe to fly, why spend the money on it? Buy new planes with only 0/1 pilots? That DOES make $$ sense. And again, your customer does NOT care, just get my box to me on time. Box burned up in fireball crash by drone? Well at least we had insurance.

Lol, fireball crash by drone? If it killed hundreds on the ground I donít think that would go over very well either. :confused:

itsmytime
07-20-2018, 06:50 AM
So youíre saying FedEx paved the way for two-man cockpits? Youíre unwittingly supporting his point.


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No. He's actually proving that working at a cargo carrier is no guarantee that management isn't willing to do whatever it takes to eliminate your job. Thus undercutting the OP's argument that pax guys should be more nervous than cargo.

iahflyr
07-21-2018, 11:24 AM
Exactly. I personally know a bunch of under 30 year olds that have been picked up by delta. They seem to love the 24-28 year old demographic. I believe as a 33 year old, I would never break into the top 1000 on the delta seniority list. they are no longer my top choice.

This is a statistic I would love to see. What is the age demographics of pilots at all the major airlines. It does seem to me that Delta has the youngest.

Pilot X
07-23-2018, 01:16 PM
I generally have about 2 minutes of pax/FA contact per workday.

Hi, I'm contrails, nice to meet you. Sure, I'll take a bottle of water and may we get a trashbag please...thanks. No, we layover a bit longer than that, so we'll head downtown. Great, thanks again.

I think I'd enjoy freight but I will also say that I can drop/swap my entire month, not sure if you presumed that to be a thing unique to where you are but I don't think it is.

Both have their pros and cons.

So you go by your APC handle in real life??? :eek: haha

terminal
07-23-2018, 02:45 PM
This is a statistic I would love to see. What is the age demographics of pilots at all the major airlines. It does seem to me that Delta has the youngest.

3 years ago SWA and DAL started hiring like gangbusters. Theyíve each put close 2500 pilots on property since then.
UA and AA have not. To me that makes UA and AA a better choice just from seniority alone.
The retirement charts show Delta reaching their peak retirements much earlier than UA or AA...could also be a factor in why the hiring numbers vary so much

Sputnik
07-24-2018, 02:35 AM
3 years ago SWA and DAL started hiring like gangbusters. Theyíve each put close 2500 pilots on property since then.
UA and AA have not. To me that makes UA and AA a better choice just from seniority alone.
The retirement charts show Delta reaching their peak retirements much earlier than UA or AA...could also be a factor in why the hiring numbers vary so much

Since hiring re-started in Jan of 14, Delta has added 4500 pilots

PRS Guitars
07-24-2018, 07:38 AM
Since hiring re-started in Jan of 14, Delta has added 4500 pilots

Only 2600 at AA (since Jan 2014, maybe 200 hired in 2013) so his concept his correct, just off on the numbers a bit.

terminal
07-24-2018, 11:15 AM
Only 2600 at AA (since Jan 2014, maybe 200 hired in 2013) so his concept his correct, just off on the numbers a bit.

Yeah - I was carrying the 2...
Point stands though-even bolstered more so with 4K on property at DAL since 2014