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View Full Version : Staffing for new CBA.


Bluedriver
07-14-2018, 01:34 PM
The bulk of hiring probably 12-18 months away. The single biggest staffing driver will be the new vacation allocation and distribution. That doesn't start until 2020.

What do you guys think the short and long term bid divisor/ALV will do?

I tend to think it will go down on average with more staffing. Also, less open time in general as we are staffed better with more dudes with less credit hours (due to better staffing) chasing open time.

Counter thoughts?


pilotpayne
07-15-2018, 06:44 AM
The bulk of hiring probably 12-18 months away. The single biggest staffing driver will be the new vacation allocation and distribution. That doesn't start until 2020.

What do you guys think the short and long term bid divisor/ALV will do?

I tend to think it will go down on average with more staffing. Also, less open time in general as we are staffed better with more dudes with less credit hours (due to better staffing) chasing open time.

Counter thoughts?


Man you need the smart guys for a question like that. I have no clue :)

BunkerF16
07-15-2018, 06:50 AM
The bulk of hiring probably 12-18 months away. The single biggest staffing driver will be the new vacation allocation and distribution. That doesn't start until 2020.

What do you guys think the short and long term bid divisor/ALV will do?

I tend to think it will go down on average with more staffing. Also, less open time in general as we are staffed better with more dudes with less credit hours (due to better staffing) chasing open time.

Counter thoughts?


I flew with a CKA last week and he was told that if this passes, that they'll increase hiring the rest of this year alone 150 pilots. TIFWIW. I usually take what my buds from that office say with a grain of salt (we were getting 330s 2 years ago), but you'd think hiring increases would be something they'd know about since it directly affects their jobs.


Bluedriver
07-15-2018, 07:29 AM
I flew with a CKA last week and he was told that if this passes, that they'll increase hiring the rest of this year alone 150 pilots. TIFWIW. I usually take what my buds from that office say with a grain of salt (we were getting 330s 2 years ago), but you'd think hiring increases would be something they'd know about since it directly affects their jobs.

No, I agree they will need to hire SOME right away for work rules and other staffing drivers. I'm saying the biggest single staffing issue is probably vacation, and that doesn't start at all until 2020. So a lot of the CBA hiring is 12+ months away. Some now some later I guess is what I'm saying.

RiddleEagle18
07-15-2018, 07:35 AM
Side note : vacation Distribution within the month actually starts on this years vacation bid.


Sent from my iPhone using Tapatalk

BunkerF16
07-15-2018, 07:46 AM
No, I agree they will need to hire SOME right away for work rules and other staffing drivers. I'm saying the biggest single staffing issue is probably vacation, and that doesn't start at all until 2020. So a lot of the CBA hiring is 12+ months away. Some now some later I guess is what I'm saying.



You also realize this is JB we're talking about right? If you and I agree we should increase manning by 300 pilots, JB will hire 100 and RSA/VDA/Green slip the sh1t out open time/IROPS

CaptCoolHand
07-15-2018, 07:47 AM
The bulk of hiring probably 12-18 months away. The single biggest staffing driver will be the new vacation allocation and distribution. That doesn't start until 2020.

What do you guys think the short and long term bid divisor/ALV will do?

I tend to think it will go down on average with more staffing. Also, less open time in general as we are staffed better with more dudes with less credit hours (due to better staffing) chasing open time.

Counter thoughts?

My total WAG for the TA is 10%minimum to cover the new rules. IMO it should probably be closer to 15, but we won't get there.

BeatNavy
07-15-2018, 08:10 AM
We were about 14 pilots per plane a year or so ago, now we are 15 per. I think we will move to about 15.5-16 per plane, especially as the A220 comes online and thereís overlap with 3 fleet types, and especially if we increase A220 utilization over E190 utilization as we bulk up their use in 2022/23 (ie redeyes, which I anticipate eventually). With our remaining six 321 deliveries this year, that puts us at 254 planes. Thatís 3810 by yearís end with current staffing, and 4,064 at 16 per.

I donít think the new work rules, reserve, PTO/VPTO will change requirements a whole lot, frankly. Prem pickup, RSA/VDA will be alive and well and will keep the operation operating. Many people who sell back now will likely fly over vacation months, especially the trough months. Iíd be surprised if we ever hit 16.5 pilots per plane. Iím guessing we may hire a little heavier next year, but if you think about it, we are basically maxed right now unless we stop all the 3rd party use of our sims.

With the 190 to bus transitions, newhires, upgrades on 2 fleets, we are already at or near max capacity and have little room to throw in another fleet worth of NH and transitions. This big pay gap between 320 and 190 will trigger more training events than we are used to. Throw in the fact that we need to expand OSC just to get the A220 sims and FPTs in (or go 1 and 1 initially), it wonít happen overnight and our training department, which is already stretched thin, canít absorb that much more imo, until it grows. Especially since some of them will be going to do A220 initial cadre stuff in the next 12 months or so.

If we ever get a widebody, or possibly just with the LR, that may drive a few more pilots per airframe due to augmented ops, but the intl fleet will be so small itíll be de minimis.

TL;DR: maybe a couple hundred more than planned over the next couple years. Nothing cosmic, and canít imagine we can ramp it up very quickly anyway. Hopefully over 5,000 by end of 2023, and 5200-5400 by 2025.

My predictions (based on current order book/no 320 retirements) for EOY numbers:
2018: 3800
2019: 4100
2020: 4300
2021: 4600
2022: 4900
2023: 5200
2024: 5300
2025: 5300

BunkerF16
07-15-2018, 08:20 AM
My predictions (based on current order book/no 320 retirements) for EOY numbers:
2018: 3800
2019: 4100
2020: 4300
2021: 4600
2022: 4900
2023: 5200
2024: 5300
2025: 5300


Slight adjustment to your numbers:


2018: 3800
2019: 4100
2020: 15,000 (with white shirts and United ID cards)

Bluedriver
07-15-2018, 08:35 AM
Side note : vacation Distribution within the month actually starts on this years vacation bid.


Sent from my iPhone using Tapatalk

I think distribution WITHIN the month is the smallest Vaca staffing driver by far.

Bluedriver
07-15-2018, 08:40 AM
We were about 14 pilots per plane a year or so ago, now we are 15 per. I think we will move to about 15.5-16 per plane, especially as the A220 comes online and thereís overlap with 3 fleet types, and especially if we increase A220 utilization over E190 utilization as we bulk up their use in 2022/23 (ie redeyes, which I anticipate eventually). With our remaining six 321 deliveries this year, that puts us at 254 planes. Thatís 3810 by yearís end with current staffing, and 4,064 at 16 per.

I donít think the new work rules, reserve, PTO/VPTO will change requirements a whole lot, frankly. Prem pickup, RSA/VDA will be alive and well and will keep the operation operating. Many people who sell back now will likely fly over vacation months, especially the trough months. Iíd be surprised if we ever hit 16.5 pilots per plane. Iím guessing we may hire a little heavier next year, but if you think about it, we are basically maxed right now unless we stop all the 3rd party use of our sims.

With the 190 to bus transitions, newhires, upgrades on 2 fleets, we are already at or near max capacity and have little room to throw in another fleet worth of NH and transitions. This big pay gap between 320 and 190 will trigger more training events than we are used to. Throw in the fact that we need to expand OSC just to get the A220 sims and FPTs in (or go 1 and 1 initially), it wonít happen overnight and our training department, which is already stretched thin, canít absorb that much more imo, until it grows. Especially since some of them will be going to do A220 initial cadre stuff in the next 12 months or so.

If we ever get a widebody, or possibly just with the LR, that may drive a few more pilots per airframe due to augmented ops, but the intl fleet will be so small itíll be de minimis.

TL;DR: maybe a couple hundred more than planned over the next couple years. Nothing cosmic, and canít imagine we can ramp it up very quickly anyway. Hopefully over 5,000 by end of 2023, and 5200-5400 by 2025.

My predictions (based on current order book/no 320 retirements) for EOY numbers:
2018: 3800
2019: 4100
2020: 4300
2021: 4600
2022: 4900
2023: 5200
2024: 5300
2025: 5300

Correction, guys will TRY and fly over Vaca during trough months, but there won't be any open time...

I think as we beef up staffing we will have a little lower ALV and more dudes chasing the open time that exists.

My opinion of course.

GearAlarm
07-15-2018, 09:43 AM
How many pilots will simply try to bid down to 0 or as close as possible? If youíre well-funded, donít want to work and just want some of the benefits this might be an option. This will also allow pilots (perhaps senior) who want to put more time in their 2nd project/job a lot more flexibility.

BeatNavy
07-15-2018, 09:50 AM
Slight adjustment to your numbers:


2018: 3800
2019: 4100
2020: 15,000 (with white shirts and United ID cards)

Whatís worse, working under Scott Kirby or JG?

BeatNavy
07-15-2018, 09:53 AM
How many pilots will simply try to bid down to 0 or as close as possible? If youíre well-funded, donít want to work and just want some of the benefits this might be an option. This will also allow pilots (perhaps senior) who want to put more time in their 2nd project/job a lot more flexibility.

Canít bid down to 0. You can only drop to 70. You can trade down below 70...but obviously that will be limited by the nunber of people willing to pick up trips, so I donít realistically see that many people being able to do it. Guess we will see

Bozo the pilot
07-15-2018, 09:54 AM
Slight adjustment to your numbers:


2018: 3800
2019: 4100
2020: 15,000 (with white shirts and United ID cards)

:D Well done Bunk.

jtrain609
07-15-2018, 11:57 AM
Whatís worse, working under Scott Kirby or JG?

Kirby, easily.

CanoeBum
07-15-2018, 12:29 PM
Canít bid down to 0. You can only drop to 70. You can trade down below 70...but obviously that will be limited by the nunber of people willing to pick up trips, so I donít realistically see that many people being able to do it. Guess we will see

The guys dropping on the trade board probably wonít have much trouble doing so if the predictions of less OT being available are true. The Greedy pilots we have here wonít be able to help themselves. Example, similar to now when a senior pilot takes all the summer vacation slots and gives them to their junior buddy: Nothing stops a deal between guys bidding a week of vacation and having their junior pal that wants that week off and flys min schedule anyway to bid to work it, then the senior guy can take the junior guys trips off the trade board and still get his 150% addiction fed. My point is there are ways to exploit the system and more of them will come out as we adjust to the new normal.

O2pilot
07-21-2018, 02:26 PM
Whatís worse, working under Scott Kirby or JG?

Since Kirby arrived we are on a massive growth plan. He wants more RJs but we arenít giving him them. I met him when I went to ďcharm schoolĒ which is what we call it when all the new Captains go to HQ to meet the honchos. Kirby wants to make United #1 again and I specifically asked him about buying JB. He said we already have more planes on order than JBs current fleet and all we really want is access to JFK, and it would be too expensive so we arenít doing it.

Best way to a United job is to apply. There have been JB pilots in every new hire class, which looks like its going to be 70 a month, so get here early and get people behind you on the list quickly.

Xtreme87
07-21-2018, 02:36 PM
Since Kirby arrived we are on a massive growth plan. He wants more RJs but we arenít giving him them. I met him when I went to ďcharm schoolĒ which is what we call it when all the new Captains go to HQ to meet the honchos. Kirby wants to make United #1 again and I specifically asked him about buying JB. He said we already have more planes on order than JBs current fleet and all we really want is access to JFK, and it would be too expensive so we arenít doing it.

Best way to a United job is to apply. There have been JB pilots in every new hire class, which looks like its going to be 70 a month, so get here early and get people behind you on the list quickly.

Pretty sure he wouldnít just blurt out merger plans before theyíre announced, but I do agree that UA and JB most likely will not merge in the next decade.

pilotpayne
07-21-2018, 02:45 PM
Since Kirby arrived we are on a massive growth plan. He wants more RJs but we arenít giving him them. I met him when I went to ďcharm schoolĒ which is what we call it when all the new Captains go to HQ to meet the honchos. Kirby wants to make United #1 again and I specifically asked him about buying JB. He said we already have more planes on order than JBs current fleet and all we really want is access to JFK, and it would be too expensive so we arenít doing it.

Best way to a United job is to apply. There have been JB pilots in every new hire class, which looks like its going to be 70 a month, so get here early and get people behind you on the list quickly.



Iím sure you understand itís kind of an inside joke because everyday someone is buying jetblue. But what he told you was very interesting. Now funny thing is we were told day after day that jetblue would grow organically from every ELT member, than one day the media told us we were trying to buy another airline. Iím not saying itís going to happen but I sure as heck hope you donít trust Kirby.

Baba Yaga
07-21-2018, 03:17 PM
Staffing increase? Non whatsoever.

O2pilot
07-21-2018, 03:26 PM
Pretty sure he wouldnít just blurt out merger plans before theyíre announced, but I do agree that UA and JB most likely will not merge in the next decade.

New hire classes have been rapid fire with over 35+ pilots in each class. So I donít think we would be hiring like this if we were on the verge of buying another airline.

pilotpayne
07-21-2018, 03:57 PM
New hire classes have been rapid fire with over 35+ pilots in each class. So I don’t think we would be hiring like this if we were on the verge of buying another airline.


Heck some of the big guys were hiring right before they furloughed.
Anyway even if if if a merger happens hiring has nothing to do with it. It would be a long time till the lists were merged.

Just saying I doubt it happens and reading your other posts you certainly are not a fan of jetblue. But because Kirby told you something or you guys are hiring in no way means it could not happen we are also hiring. It’s really going to depend on what Wall St wants and you and I are along for the ride.

queue
07-21-2018, 04:02 PM
The guys dropping on the trade board probably wonít have much trouble doing so if the predictions of less OT being available are true. The Greedy pilots we have here wonít be able to help themselves. Example, similar to now when a senior pilot takes all the summer vacation slots and gives them to their junior buddy: Nothing stops a deal between guys bidding a week of vacation and having their junior pal that wants that week off and flys min schedule anyway to bid to work it, then the senior guy can take the junior guys trips off the trade board and still get his 150% addiction fed. My point is there are ways to exploit the system and more of them will come out as we adjust to the new normal.




BJ controls staffing levels.
BJ controls reserve coverage levels.
Dinosaur pilots will always bid whatever they want.
Dinosaur pilots will always be able to trade away good trips via tradeboard because they already got the good trips.
Junior/middle pilots will have bad trips that no one will want to pick up and will be stuck being unable to trade away or drop due to insufficient reserve coverage.

How is this TA better?



Why not negotiate a new proposal: let anyone take vacation time whenever they want. If the pilot numbers are insufficient, keep increasing compensation until someone bites in open-time (to be locked in 3 at least 3 days prior). Maximum compensation of 10x normal pay is allowed. Ad-hoc pairings starting at home blue city are allowed. If no one bites at 10x pay up to required pilot levels, then start drafting from the bottom of the seniority list and work upwards. I guarantee you there's enough juicers that will bite at 2-3x pay. They won't even get to 10x.



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