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View Full Version : What staffing increase?


Bluedriver
09-05-2018, 10:09 AM
New system bids out, where's all that "CBA staffing"?


P-3Bubba
09-05-2018, 12:39 PM
-10 BOS 320 FO? So weíre reducing flying? Or inclreasing staffing IROPS and ďdue to low reserve numbersĒ everyoneís fav RSA! Help out! Pick up! Out of base idiots picking up RSA. WAY TO GO DUMMIES!! Cash money. So easy.

What is going on at this company? Saving money? These irops are certainly exacerbated by the staffing. They cancel flight all the time because of the old crew swap-a-roo and then....uh oh NO CREWS. Thatís making customers angry, our cultured crew members angry and costing a S-Load of cash. Whatever, help out and do your best to fly with your head in the sand.


-Bubs

feltf4
09-05-2018, 01:04 PM
And to think that people here actually think that the company is going to be able to fully implement this contract.

... sorry not enough pilots for vacations. Sorry not enough pilots for reserve rules. Sorry not enough pilots.

Cry wolf. ďPilot shortageĒ


RiddleEagle18
09-05-2018, 06:25 PM
New system bids out, where's all that "CBA staffing"?


The biggest driver to staffing doesnít hit until 2020.

But you already knew that.


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pilotpayne
09-06-2018, 03:09 AM
The biggest driver to staffing doesnít hit until 2020.

But you already knew that.


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Which is why I never understand posts like that. He knows exactly what will increase staffing yet we get this.

Bluedriver
09-06-2018, 04:06 AM
Well let's pick that apart. When I said, clearly, that this contract would require less staffing than most of you guys thought, I got push-back.

When said that if it does require additional staffing, it wouldn't be required for quite some time because of Vaca and reserve rules being phased in over a couple of decades. Yet, most of you would NOT publicly agree with me during the voting period.

Now we have a total of 7 Airbus FOs being added to the roster of a GROWING hull count over the next 3-6 months! That from the very FIRST system bid post CBA?!? When you grow the hull count over 6 months by about 6 airframes, and only add 7 FOs (don't know if there will be any openings on the December bid), that's a REDUCTION in staffing per hull.

cmesoar
09-06-2018, 07:06 AM
Well let's pick that apart. When I said, clearly, that this contract would require less staffing than most of you guys thought, I got push-back.

When said that if it does require additional staffing, it wouldn't be required for quite some time because of Vaca and reserve rules being phased in over a couple of decades. Yet, most of you would NOT publicly agree with me during the voting period.

Now we have a total of 7 Airbus FOs being added to the roster of a GROWING hull count over the next 3-6 months! That from the very FIRST system bid post CBA?!? When you grow the hull count over 6 months by about 6 airframes, and only add 7 FOs (don't know if there will be any openings on the December bid), that's a REDUCTION in staffing per hull.

now now, Giggity will tell you that those mean and defiant ATC folk are causing this staffing problem by delaying our flights on purpose and causing our crews to time out. How could ATC do that to us? We have culture and we could share our near endless amount of growing potatoes with them... Heck, they could even come pick some on their lunch break. If I close my eyes right now, I can see the email with the pictures of our ATC friends if this actually happened!

all kidding aside, I agree with your post Bluedriver. I think these numbers are way to low and either something is in the works that we have no idea about or the next bid will need to be much larger. I just don't see us adding all these airframes and not bringing on more bodies with RSAs almost every day. They need to go hand in hand, Right?!?

SmitteyB
09-06-2018, 07:22 AM
Although I find BlueDriver a very unhappy person and often shake my head at his posts, the staffing numbers do not add up.

Unless they have found with these new pairings that the overall pilots required for the operation is less than anticipated, it doesnít make sense. Makes you wonder what kind of staffing model they have developed. More telling will be the December bid.

hilltopflyer
09-06-2018, 07:39 AM
Although I find BlueDriver a very unhappy person and often shake my head at his posts, the staffing numbers do not add up.

Unless they have found with these new pairings that the overall pilots required for the operation is less than anticipated, it doesnít make sense. Makes you wonder what kind of staffing model they have developed. More telling will be the December bid.

I hope they realize that they just canít train people overnight...

P-3Bubba
09-06-2018, 07:42 AM
Every time a bid comes out the rhetoric is ďwait till next bidĒ! The DEC bid was right before the CBA, and that required 2 separate and VERY different staffing numbers from the same source on the same day. Talk to me about decided plans and future strategy all day, but the point is they have no idea whatís going on.

-Bubs

P-3Bubba
09-06-2018, 07:43 AM
And the comments about the FO staffing being complete unrealistic based in Just aircraft deliveries alone is spot on correct.

-Bubs

seekingblue
09-06-2018, 08:27 AM
And the comments about the FO staffing being complete unrealistic based in Just aircraft deliveries alone is spot on correct.

-Bubs

So..........

Merger rumors?

queue
09-06-2018, 10:51 AM
Glad I voted no for the TA.

Mattio
09-06-2018, 10:57 AM
The biggest driver to staffing doesnít hit until 2020.

But you already knew that.


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Why do we have to rely on vacation to indirectly increase staffing? Vacation which can be canceled "due to operational neccesity", for example, if they don't hire enough people...

I said the staffing language was weak and that was a big part of why I voted no. Let's see what other ways this CBA and its weak language gets exploited by the company...

hilltopflyer
09-06-2018, 11:09 AM
Why do we have to rely on vacation to indirectly increase staffing? Vacation which can be canceled "due to operational neccesity", for example, if they don't hire enough people...

I said the staffing language was weak and that was a big part of why I voted no. Let's see what other ways this CBA and its weak language gets exploited by the company...

Shhhh.... the yes voters will just say time to move on

Southerner
09-06-2018, 06:56 PM
Although I find BlueDriver a very unhappy person and often shake my head at his posts, the staffing numbers do not add up.

Unless they have found with these new pairings that the overall pilots required for the operation is less than anticipated, it doesnít make sense. Makes you wonder what kind of staffing model they have developed. More telling will be the December bid.

Pure speculation here, but I'm betting that they are being cautious because large bids give the ability for large amounts of transfers from E190 to A320. A large bid could drive a huge increase in training cycles. If they keep the bids on the small side, fewer people can jump over all at once, which helps to keep the training department from getting overwhelmed.

If that is the case, the bids have less to do with staffing needs, and more to do with damage control.

HeloBubba53
09-06-2018, 07:44 PM
Pure speculation here, but I'm betting that they are being cautious because large bids give the ability for large amounts of transfers from E190 to A320. A large bid could drive a huge increase in training cycles. If they keep the bids on the small side, fewer people can jump over all at once, which helps to keep the training department from getting overwhelmed.

If that is the case, the bids have less to do with staffing needs, and more to do with damage control.

^^^This ^^^

pilotpayne
09-06-2018, 08:45 PM
Well let's pick that apart. When I said, clearly, that this contract would require less staffing than most of you guys thought, I got push-back.

When said that if it does require additional staffing, it wouldn't be required for quite some time because of Vaca and reserve rules being phased in over a couple of decades. Yet, most of you would NOT publicly agree with me during the voting period.

Now we have a total of 7 Airbus FOs being added to the roster of a GROWING hull count over the next 3-6 months! That from the very FIRST system bid post CBA?!? When you grow the hull count over 6 months by about 6 airframes, and only add 7 FOs (don't know if there will be any openings on the December bid), that's a REDUCTION in staffing per hull.


Yeah I have no idea what they are doing. But I think you will agree the things that could drive the most staffing are far from being implemented.

The company is doing some odd stuff and I have no clue why.

pilotpayne
09-06-2018, 09:45 PM
Pure speculation here, but I'm betting that they are being cautious because large bids give the ability for large amounts of transfers from E190 to A320. A large bid could drive a huge increase in training cycles. If they keep the bids on the small side, fewer people can jump over all at once, which helps to keep the training department from getting overwhelmed.

If that is the case, the bids have less to do with staffing needs, and more to do with damage control.

Until the damage happens out on the line and our schedule

IQuitEagle
09-06-2018, 11:12 PM
Until the damage happens out on the line and our schedule

You actually think that would change things, with the management you have? 😂😂😂

Bluedriver
09-07-2018, 04:44 AM
Although I find BlueDriver a very unhappy person and often shake my head at his posts, the staffing numbers do not add up.

Unless they have found with these new pairings that the overall pilots required for the operation is less than anticipated, it doesnít make sense. Makes you wonder what kind of staffing model they have developed. More telling will be the December bid.

Not that it really matters, it's the internet's, but if you really knew me you would laugh at the thought that I'm an unhappy person. Literally couldn't be further from the truth.

But, yeah, I'm not sunshine and roses about JB.

Bluedriver
09-07-2018, 04:47 AM
Pure speculation here, but I'm betting that they are being cautious because large bids give the ability for large amounts of transfers from E190 to A320. A large bid could drive a huge increase in training cycles. If they keep the bids on the small side, fewer people can jump over all at once, which helps to keep the training department from getting overwhelmed.

If that is the case, the bids have less to do with staffing needs, and more to do with damage control.

Ok, control damage. Then how do they ACTUALLY staff the deliveries and the airline with the required number of pilots then?

hilltopflyer
09-07-2018, 05:09 AM
Ok, control damage. Then how do they ACTUALLY staff the deliveries and the airline with the required number of pilots then?

Are they allowed to put new hires in an aircraft that doesnít have a system bid vacancy for it?

Bluedriver
09-07-2018, 05:25 AM
Are they allowed to put new hires in an aircraft that doesnít have a system bid vacancy for it?

That was my thought. Not sure, hope our "Industry leading" contract language prevents that type of shannanagans...

Southerner
09-07-2018, 05:55 AM
Are they allowed to put new hires in an aircraft that doesnít have a system bid vacancy for it?

Supplemental bid maybe? Dunno.

Mattio
09-07-2018, 08:53 AM
Are they allowed to put new hires in an aircraft that doesnít have a system bid vacancy for it?

I think they have done this in the past (for FO vacancies) and I don't see anything in the contract preventing this. Maybe the October and November new hire classes there are suddenly only airbus spots open... Makes sense if they're trying to reduce training events, unfortunately.

hilltopflyer
09-07-2018, 09:16 AM
I think they have done this in the past (for FO vacancies) and I don't see anything in the contract preventing this. Maybe the October and November new hire classes there are suddenly only airbus spots open... Makes sense if they're trying to reduce training events, unfortunately.

Such bull crap. Another reason Iím glad I voted no... new hires should only be able to fill open vacancy spots.

Mattio
09-07-2018, 10:01 AM
Such bull crap. Another reason Iím glad I voted no... new hires should only be able to fill open vacancy spots.

Ya, it wasn't really an issue before. If you wanted to switch to the airbus, you could pretty much do it but the new pay rates changes things (: transitions go senior probably and the company tries to prevent a flood of transition training.)

pilotpayne
09-07-2018, 12:21 PM
You actually think that would change things, with the management you have? 😂😂😂

Yeah when the schedule start costing more money yes

I fully understand our management.

I know things are amazing at FedEx glad you made it out.

pilotpayne
09-07-2018, 12:23 PM
Ya, it wasn't really an issue before. If you wanted to switch to the airbus, you could pretty much do it but the new pay rates changes things (: transitions go senior probably and the company tries to prevent a flood of transition training.)


Iím sure they will do whatever they can to minimize training costs and try to keep things moving down there.

They can barely keep up with stuff as it is.

Std Deviation
09-07-2018, 12:36 PM
Operational question - Are the 190 CA reserves in JFK/BOS getting used or are they coming in under guarantee each month?

pilotpayne
09-07-2018, 02:15 PM
Operational question - Are the 190 CA reserves in JFK/BOS getting used or are they coming in under guarantee each month?

190 captain Bos last month rsv 88 hours. A good chunk were above 75,
Got used every day except 1

hilltopflyer
09-08-2018, 12:00 AM
Operational question - Are the 190 CA reserves in JFK/BOS getting used or are they coming in under guarantee each month?

A lot that I fly with say itís hit or miss. Some months itís nits others itíll be guarantee. Summer also just passed and had something to do with that.

TristarJS30
09-08-2018, 05:48 AM
Operational question - Are the 190 CA reserves in JFK/BOS getting used or are they coming in under guarantee each month?

I've hit over 90 hours every month since March and only had about 8 days where I was on call but didn't get used (since March)... but I do work weekends so your mileage might vary.

P-3Bubba
09-15-2018, 06:13 PM
A buddy of mine told me ďYouíre not on reserve. You are a 90 hour line holder. The only thing is you donít know what youíre going to fly yet.Ē

-Bubs

Bozo the pilot
09-16-2018, 06:21 PM
Ok, control damage. Then how do they ACTUALLY staff the deliveries and the airline with the required number of pilots then?

They dont- They never have. Theyll have to be scared into it by losing tens of millions in an IROP due to their idiocy. Theyll blame ATC, WX, and PH will send out another email begging us to pick up. Ill fly my schedule, enjoy my raise and live my life.
Im like watching the transition months and everyones' over-reaction to everything.
B6 is B6 so grab your popcorn.
Wassup BD? Hope you're well.
Bz

Rabid Seagull
09-17-2018, 06:05 AM
I've hit over 90 hours every month since March and only had about 8 days where I was on call but didn't get used (since March)... but I do work weekends so your mileage might vary.

I'd like to start my reply using the green philosophy😄 ( when the next daily update comes out, scroll down and see if you find any green on the rsv grid?)...

Remember Oct 1st is when you can finish your month once you hit 75 hours. It may not really apply in October, but come the holiday months, it will. Imagine if folks get 75 hours by Dec 20th...holidays off. I know I'll try to ' time out' by the 20th-ish of Nov and Dec.

And since the rest of the reserve implementation won't occur for at least another year, you can bid trips all you like....with seniority.

Edit: the dream of ' timing out' requires unrealistic fuzzy math, but one irop could make it a reality.

RiddleEagle18
09-17-2018, 06:09 AM
I'd like to start my reply using the green philosophy[emoji1] ( when the next daily update comes out, scroll down and see if you find any green on the rsv grid?)...



Remember Oct 1st is when you can finish your month once you hit 75 hours. It may not really apply in October, but come the holiday months, it will. Imagine if folks get 75 hours by Dec 20th...holidays off. I know I'll try to ' time out' by the 20th-ish of Nov and Dec.



The company can chose to keep you on and just pay you the 4+ hours a day.

So your not getting the holidays off.

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Rabid Seagull
09-17-2018, 06:21 AM
The company can chose to keep you on and just pay you the 4+ hours a day.

So your not getting the holidays off.

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Uggghhh. These are the details that will slowly get into my head over the next year.

I'm still going to latch a 2% milk carton to my suitcase...yup, that's what we're worth.

Bluedriver
09-17-2018, 09:40 AM
They dont- They never have. Theyll have to be scared into it by losing tens of millions in an IROP due to their idiocy. Theyll blame ATC, WX, and PH will send out another email begging us to pick up. Ill fly my schedule, enjoy my raise and live my life.
Im like watching the transition months and everyones' over-reaction to everything.
B6 is B6 so grab your popcorn.
Wassup BD? Hope you're well.
Bz

Doing well Bozo. Life's good bud. You?

CaptCoolHand
09-17-2018, 01:28 PM
12yr upgrade at jb now.

Come one come all! Bring us your poor your sick your DUIís.


Na, itíll shake out after a few bids. 73% upgrade wasnít natural.

RiddleEagle18
09-17-2018, 05:14 PM
With the pay difference no longer justifying the QOL gains guys experienced from being senior on the 190 this was bound to happen. Itís probably going to take a few hundred 320 upgrades for the new normal to materialize.

4 year upgrade on the 190 will probably continue that way as guys keep jumping ship. The airplane will still be on property for another 5 years or so, but eventually they will have to hold people on the 190 and pay them bypass pay rather than having the training churn that comes with a dying fleet.

Itís going to be an interesting few years on these bids.



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Bozo the pilot
09-17-2018, 06:43 PM
Doing well Bozo. Life's good bud. You?

Hangin in there- livin life. :)

Softpayman
09-18-2018, 03:19 AM
Everyone talking about staffing planes...

It's block hours that matter.

Minimums
09-18-2018, 03:40 AM
When is the last system bid before the change over to 1x a year per the cba?

RiddleEagle18
09-18-2018, 04:53 AM
When is the last system bid before the change over to 1x a year per the cba?



September 2019 is the first new bid.

So June 2019 should be the last old style bid.


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Bluedriver
09-18-2018, 07:34 AM
Everyone talking about staffing planes...

It's block hours that matter.

Oh! That explains everything! We're buying a dozen multi-million dollar aircrafts per year and just not flying them. Genius!

If you are referring to cabin refresh, once they take the first 4 (or however many they work on at a time) out of service for refresh, it's just a rotating 4 out of service. So every single small vacancy bid can't be about cabin refresh.

Minimums
09-18-2018, 08:04 AM
September 2019 is the first new bid.

So June 2019 should be the last old style bid.


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Are those the effective dates for the bids or when the bid will come out? For example we should have another bid this Dec, March, with June being the last?

GuppyPuppy
09-18-2018, 10:54 AM
Are those the effective dates for the bids or when the bid will come out? For example we should have another bid this Dec, March, with June being the last?

The annual bid will be effective on January 1st of the following year. Whether that is fully trained or starting training is the question.

Gup

benzoate
10-06-2018, 04:38 AM
Everyone talking about staffing planes...

It's block hours that matter.

With the recent "changes" to the building of pairings this has never been more important.

ShyGuy
10-06-2018, 07:47 AM
2006 is the most junior CA? Yikes :eek:

seekingblue
10-06-2018, 08:18 AM
2006 is the most junior CA? Yikes :eek:


That isn't correct.

I'll look up the exact dates later, mid to late 2014 guys/gals are holding captain in both fleets. Moving forward, the bus is going to get much much more senior.

hilltopflyer
10-06-2018, 08:41 AM
That isn't correct.

I'll look up the exact dates later, mid to late 2014 guys/gals are holding captain in both fleets. Moving forward, the bus is going to get much much more senior.

Yep whatís going to get interesting is what the 220 is going to look like.

nuball5
10-06-2018, 10:17 AM
Yeah it'll go much senior on the Airbus I think for the next couple years, until the 220 starts rolling in. 2006 isn't the most junior Captain....that's straight up fake news.

BeatNavy
10-06-2018, 10:21 AM
As soon as we make our first a220-300 to 100 conversion itíll likely drop the seniority. $259 to $248 isnít a lot of difference. But $259 to $227 is.

Rabid Seagull
10-06-2018, 11:33 AM
2006 is the most junior CA? Yikes :eek:

Is that an Easter egg from your SLI? Yikes it is:eek:

ShyGuy
10-06-2018, 10:44 PM
Oh ok, that makes sense. Sorry was looking at CaptCoolHands post about upgrade being at 12 yrs now on previous page. Sounded like junior went to 2006 on an award.

PasserOGas
10-07-2018, 05:33 AM
Oh ok, that makes sense. Sorry was looking at CaptCoolHands post about upgrade being at 12 yrs now on previous page. Sounded like junior went to 2006 on an award.

Yeah, it's because we are totally NOT stagnant.

DJIA
10-07-2018, 08:55 AM
What does monthly attrition look like? Are there lots of FOís on bottom of the list moving to the majors? Cargo?


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hilltopflyer
10-07-2018, 11:29 AM
What does monthly attrition look like? Are there lots of FOís on bottom of the list moving to the majors? Cargo?


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Not really.

benzoate
10-08-2018, 04:24 AM
What does monthly attrition look like? Are there lots of FOís on bottom of the list moving to the majors? Cargo?


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Jetblue loses about 100 per year prior to the signing of the contract. Post contract we will see. The company expects much less.

Bluedriver
10-08-2018, 04:46 AM
Jetblue loses about 100 per year prior to the signing of the contract. Post contract we will see. The company expects much less.

Correct, so no seniority number movement from attrition. It's only retirements, which we have none.

You will see a little relative seniority movement from our slow growth, but very very little.

RiddleEagle18
10-08-2018, 04:51 AM
https://uploads.tapatalk-cdn.com/20181008/ae709b33e1e3e7d4701caa938fd6813b.jpg


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HandyUghes
10-09-2018, 02:56 AM
https://uploads.tapatalk-cdn.com/20181008/ae709b33e1e3e7d4701caa938fd6813b.jpg


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As a percentage of the whole, is this not so different from the legacies?





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RiddleEagle18
10-09-2018, 04:36 AM
As a percentage of the whole, is this not so different from the legacies?





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Itís way lower.

American is retiring close to 800 this year. Thatís about 9% of their entire list and it continues this way for several year for a total of 50% within 10 years.

It will take JB almost a decade to retire 9% let alone 50%!


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HandyUghes
10-09-2018, 04:46 AM
Itís way lower.

American is retiring close to 800 this year. Thatís about 9% of their entire list and it continues this way for several year for a total of 50% within 10 years.

It will take JB almost a decade to retire 9% let alone 50%!


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According to the chart, weíre at ~20% by 2029 and 65% by 2039. We ramp up later, but thatís not nothing.

Edit: Just added the retirement numbers from the AA profile here. Theyíll retire ~63% in the next ten years, then the retirements drop off when ours start ramping up. Itís no different than JB, just delayed.



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RiddleEagle18
10-09-2018, 05:04 AM
According to the chart, weíre at ~20% by 2029 and 65% by 2039. We ramp up later, but thatís not nothing.

Edit: Just added the retirement numbers from the AA profile here. Theyíll retire ~63% in the next ten years, then the retirements drop off when ours start ramping up. Itís no different than JB, just delayed.



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Cool yea if a DECADE isnít a big deal to you. Hell its only a third of your career.

Here is JB real cumulative numbers based on last system bid of 3682 pilots

2019- .2%
2020- .8%
2021- 1.65%
2022- 2.66%
2023- 3.77%
2024- 5.56%
2025- 7.7%
2026- 9.4%
2027- 11.9%
2028- 15.3%

So youíve finally made it off reserve. Meanwhile your buddies at AA are already lineholding narrowbody captains.




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jtrain609
10-09-2018, 06:09 AM
Cool yea if a DECADE isnít a big deal to you. Hell its only a third of your career.

Here is JB real cumulative numbers based on last system bid of 3682 pilots

2019- .2%
2020- .8%
2021- 1.65%
2022- 2.66%
2023- 3.77%
2024- 5.56%
2025- 7.7%
2026- 9.4%
2027- 11.9%
2028- 15.3%

So youíve finally made it off reserve. Meanwhile your buddies at AA are already lineholding narrowbody captains.




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Totally makes sense.

How are guys holding a line in under a decade, then? Something seems wrong with that.

RiddleEagle18
10-09-2018, 06:15 AM
Growth, but we are one hiccup away from an Alaska like stagnation from 2001-2015.

You can come to JB and HOPE growth continues and you make your top earnings potential as narrow body Captain in 10 years, or you can go to UAL/AA/DAL and KNOW, because of retirements, you will make narrow body captain and still have room to further grow your earnings potential by another 70k a year on a widebody.


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jtrain609
10-09-2018, 07:39 AM
Growth, but we are one hiccup away from an Alaska like stagnation from 2001-2015.

You can come to JB and HOPE growth continues and you make your top earnings potential as narrow body Captain in 10 years, or you can go to UAL/AA/DAL and KNOW, because of retirements, you will make narrow body captain and still have room to further grow your earnings potential by another 70k a year on a widebody.


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Tell this to the 2,000 United pilots who were furloughed in 2008 when the 737 fleet was parked. They had retirements, and it wasn't enough to offset parking 100 aircraft.

Retirements do you nothing if the list shrinks.

RiddleEagle18
10-09-2018, 07:44 AM
They didnít have enough retirements in 2008. Not even close to what they are doing now.

If United wanted to furlough 2000 pilots at this point in time itís just cheaper to furlough off the top due to retirements.



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Bluedriver
10-09-2018, 11:51 AM
Tell this to the 2,000 United pilots who were furloughed in 2008 when the 737 fleet was parked. They had retirements, and it wasn't enough to offset parking 100 aircraft.

Retirements do you nothing if the list shrinks.

Was this pre or post MAJOR industry consolidation? Similar retirement percentages to now? Are major airlines in an up-gauging trend or a down-gauging trend? Has our growth rate been slowing or speeding up? Or do you just like to continue to say really stupid feces?

Never mind, I already know the answer to every question I just asked, but you should think about it for a while no-talent rump-clown.