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Name User
09-05-2018, 05:48 PM
Good interesting read, this isn't a very active forum but wonder how any pilots subscribe to this mentality. Maybe not necessarily the RE part but the FI part.

https://www.nytimes.com/2018/09/01/style/fire-financial-independence-retire-early.html


swaayze
09-07-2018, 08:16 AM
I find this topic quite entertaining and motivating. Came across MMM a couple of years ago and love his attitude. Listen to a couple of podcasts and read random blogs as twitter feeds them to me.

Our situation is such that my ďREĒ will happen at 65, since Iím already 51 with twins about to start college and a non-working spouse with health issues so we need the good insurance if nothing else. And, I still like my job.

Spent most of my 26 year career so far at the regionals, with very little time even collecting left seat pay; so Iím not anywhere near where I thought Iíd be net-worth-wise at this point, but I did start early and save to the company match, and it has served me well. With my ability now to (relatively easily) max the 401k, and stretching to also max Roth IRAs, we should be in good shape. Though Iíve been pretty money smart, I wish Iíd had the mindset that 50% savings is a legitimate target before recently.

That doesnít change the mindset now though. BUT... Iím far from what I would call frugal, though I generally donít spend much on stuff (took many years for me to splurge on a 1080TV, and that was many years ago with no upgrade planned; newest car is a 2007 and I do the vast majority of reasonable auto and home maintenance; usually shop for clothes at Target, WM, even GW; etc.) but we do blow our money eating out since neither of us likes to cook. Though it is hard to resist finally spending for what Iíve long dreamed: a house on an acre with a huge shop now that I can now arguably afford.....

The gotcha here is that the young folks that think $1M is a lot of money are likely to find that they donít have enough somewhere down the line. Trying to fund a 40+ year retirement on that will prove quite difficult, because even at 4% returns (I suspect this is a reasonable long term return moving forward, if invested somewhat conservatively as it should be to live off of, imo) the principal will only be worth todayís $250k in about 50 years. The movement is hot now due to a long, prosperous market, but that too shall ebb and flow and unless that $1M can throw off 4% AND grow by that much each year on average, then money will get tight. Stuff happens and expenses rise significantly; moreso if you have kids as they get older. Healthcare costs often increase, no matter how healthy your lifestyle. And so on.

Still a very worthy knowledge base to have and existence to aspire to imo. Time is finite (and means everything) and money is but a (renewable) tool to make living easy. This much Iíve learned.

rickair7777
09-07-2018, 09:10 AM
$1M can't be anywhere near enough to retire early. Maybe enough if you're old enough for SS and medicare. Unless your idea of retiring is contemplating your navel in a tiny house or rural area.

Also... money in the bank has no real value, especially as time passes. If too many people rack up a big nest egg and retire, there will be nobody left to do the work. Inflation and wages will rise, your lawn guy would then charge $100K to mow your lawn, and your employed neighbor who's now making $2M/month could afford it.

Our current system depends on X number of workers supporting Y number of retirees. Change that equation much and something has to give.

Absent some fundamental shift in workforce automation, the economic system will adapt and evolve as needed so that the people doing the work get compensated in real terms.

IMO a more realistic plan would be to work hard to build enough wealth to retire comfortably later in life, while developing a skillset suitable for part-time, consulting/gig economy work. Once you've set yourself up to retire well, then you can work as much or as little as needed to meet your current financial desires and QOL. This is flexible over time, and keeps you from running out of money after 20 years out of your profession and the workforce.

Definitely worth sacrificing to accumulate diverse wealth while young, then you have options (emphasis on DIVERSE).


Name User
09-07-2018, 02:12 PM
I find this topic quite entertaining and motivating. Came across MMM a couple of years ago and love his attitude. Listen to a couple of podcasts and read random blogs as twitter feeds them to me.

Our situation is such that my “RE” will happen at 65, since I’m already 51 with twins about to start college and a non-working spouse with health issues so we need the good insurance if nothing else. And, I still like my job.

Spent most of my 26 year career so far at the regionals, with very little time even collecting left seat pay; so I’m not anywhere near where I thought I’d be net-worth-wise at this point, but I did start early and save to the company match, and it has served me well. With my ability now to (relatively easily) max the 401k, and stretching to also max Roth IRAs, we should be in good shape. Though I’ve been pretty money smart, I wish I’d had the mindset that 50% savings is a legitimate target before recently.

That doesn’t change the mindset now though. BUT... I’m far from what I would call frugal, though I generally don’t spend much on stuff (took many years for me to splurge on a 1080TV, and that was many years ago with no upgrade planned; newest car is a 2007 and I do the vast majority of reasonable auto and home maintenance; usually shop for clothes at Target, WM, even GW; etc.) but we do blow our money eating out since neither of us likes to cook. Though it is hard to resist finally spending for what I’ve long dreamed: a house on an acre with a huge shop now that I can now arguably afford.....

The gotcha here is that the young folks that think $1M is a lot of money are likely to find that they don’t have enough somewhere down the line. Trying to fund a 40+ year retirement on that will prove quite difficult, because even at 4% returns (I suspect this is a reasonable long term return moving forward, if invested somewhat conservatively as it should be to live off of, imo) the principal will only be worth today’s $250k in about 50 years. The movement is hot now due to a long, prosperous market, but that too shall ebb and flow and unless that $1M can throw off 4% AND grow by that much each year on average, then money will get tight. Stuff happens and expenses rise significantly; moreso if you have kids as they get older. Healthcare costs often increase, no matter how healthy your lifestyle. And so on.

Still a very worthy knowledge base to have and existence to aspire to imo. Time is finite (and means everything) and money is but a (renewable) tool to make living easy. This much I’ve learned.

Hi and thanks for your comments. First keep in mind the 4% SWR is indexed to inflation. In other words year two you withdraw 4% plus a 3% bump for inflation. FireCalc says you should be fine with a standard asset allocation. This is becuse historical returns are roughly 6% after inflation.

What most people don't realize, or fail to, is that things don't buy happiness, but instead buy burden. Your acre lot with shop for example, while it sounds nice especially as you get older it becomes a burden as that yard must be mowed, landscaped, watered, etc and many "things" pile up in that workshop. The costs in both time and money are quite high.

I'm not advocating for living in a box but you see this around Dallas quite a bit - 3000 to 4000 sq ft homes etc. These homes are filled with things no one ever uses or rooms rarely ever visited.

Hedonic adaptation causes humans to quickly become accustomed to increased standards of living. Your new car is nice and makes you happy for a few months, but then you want something newer and better.

A high savings rate is a very different way of living but it could serve pilots well. When you get furloughed you could use the lowered income to convert your traditional 401k dollars to Roth for example. Also I think pilots have a unique ability to keep expenses low especially the younger ones. We don't need expensive suits, or a nice car, etc. since we are provided a uniform and we only put a few thousand miles a year on our cars, they will last several decades.

Name User
09-07-2018, 02:19 PM
$1M can't be anywhere near enough to retire early. Maybe enough if you're old enough for SS and medicare. Unless your idea of retiring is contemplating your navel in a tiny house or rural area.

Also... money in the bank has no real value, especially as time passes. If too many people rack up a big nest egg and retire, there will be nobody left to do the work. Inflation and wages will rise, your lawn guy would then charge $100K to mow your lawn, and your employed neighbor who's now making $2M/month could afford it.

Our current system depends on X number of workers supporting Y number of retirees. Change that equation much and something has to give.

Absent some fundamental shift in workforce automation, the economic system will adapt and evolve as needed so that the people doing the work get compensated in real terms.

IMO a more realistic plan would be to work hard to build enough wealth to retire comfortably later in life, while developing a skillset suitable for part-time, consulting/gig economy work. Once you've set yourself up to retire well, then you can work as much or as little as needed to meet your current financial desires and QOL. This is flexible over time, and keeps you from running out of money after 20 years out of your profession and the workforce.

Definitely worth sacrificing to accumulate diverse wealth while young, then you have options (emphasis on DIVERSE).

First keep in mind the $40k for starters will be indexed to inflation and increased at 3% per year. My annual spending with mortgage is right at $40k and without would be around $28k.

For health insurance most qualify for large ACA subsidies since their earned income is so low, only a couple hundred a month at best.

I had to kinda laugh at your assertion that most will build up a large nest egg and quit working. I highly doubt most Americans will change their spending habits. Saving 60%+ of your income is something most are not conditioned to strive for. Instead, most will spend right up what their income allows.

swaayze
09-10-2018, 07:31 AM
Increased income yearly is exactly the issue/problem. You cannot index yearly to inflation unless you have returns measurably over and above inflation. While that has been very easy for the last ten years that won’t always be the case. Soon (?) that will flip flop for a time and portfolios will decrease, but your minimum expenses will continue to increase, eating into your principal (unless you’re working some); the boat will take on water faster than you can bail without a bigger bucket (other income). That’s why the best of the promoters are quick to disclose that it’s more about FI than RE.

Yet this is what I worry that many of the younger FIRE folks really don’t get, because they haven’t lived a couple of market cycles as investors (or even employees). For instance, I can assure you that spending more by converting to a ROTH during my two furloughs was the last thing on my mind, tax savings be damned. Even Mr. Money Mustache, with whom I’m sure you’re familiar, is wishfully thinking on their expenses as they age. I have probably never been healthier, but passing 50 I also have more medical expense than ever, some almost directly attributed to an active lifestyle. My kids are about to go to college and I refuse to have them graduate with lots of debt, so if they stay good then I help out significantly. Not to mention the costs of their four years in HS marching band, a couple of ten year old cars to buy, maintain and insure, etc.

There are so many FI blogs and podcasts by young folks that are a bit idealistic compared to the buckle down mentality of a Dave Ramsey, and I’m afraid time will hurt some folks who think they’re prepared but really are not.

No doubt tough, there is great value in subscribing to many of these tenets (of both generations', the MMM and the DR). Although I don’t really expect, or even truly want, yet, to RE, I DO wish quite frequently that I already had FU money in the bank.


BTW: when I say “you” I’m being generic, not pretending to know how you specifically will fare. Sounds like your expenses are well controlled.

swaayze
09-10-2018, 07:56 AM
Oh yeah, and my acre and shop:

You ainít kidding!

Extreme increase in outflow. Purchase price, taxes, insurance, hvac (if house is bigger, which is likely), septic and well maintenance, a few grand for a zero turn large path mower (or another few hundred each month for pro service). Thatís not to mention that Iíd like a pool and spa, so thereís another few hundred a month down the crapper. All to have a place to build and restore cars (more outflow), and to take an occasional dip in the pool or tub, but mostly just to feel like Iím at my own little resort? I guess thatís why Iím still in my Eagle FO cookie-cutter house, which is quite nice, though not by todayís standards of hardwoods and granite (tbh though itís more of an Eagle Captain's house that I stretched and was able to buy during the easy money days of 2005). We donít really care to travel a ton or have other big entertainment expenses, so I keep trying unsuccessfully to justify it to myself as entertainment/travel expenses saved for setting up a homebody-bring-the-grandkids fun estate.

That is the real issue for me: how much to spend on fun/wants/dreams in the present vs singular focus on amassing cash to merely exist in the future? (Especially as I start to sense time expiring more quickly) No matter how focused we are on ďnot stuffĒ I find that to be a difficult question. I suppose the answer would be clear only if we knew how long we would be here.

tomgoodman
09-10-2018, 08:09 AM
Itís a sneakers/charging bear situation. The $1M doesnít have to last a lifetime; it only has to outlast everyone elseís retirement fund. :D

swaayze
09-10-2018, 08:20 AM
And finally a nosy question (feel free to tell me to bug off, though it is genuine and I feel that I can learn from you; but still has a point if rhetorical):

You mention lowered expenses by $1000/mo if/when you pay off your mortgage, but expenses of only ~ $3400/mo now. So if your P&I is $1000/mo I assume you are probably spending almost that much each month on property tax and insurance (assume you’re in DFW from your earlier references, so maybe $600-700 at the least). How the heck do you spend only ~ $1800/mo on everything else? We spend that on utilities, auto gas, and other insurances alone (disability, life and auto - we're well covered, but all are necessary imo). Notice we haven’t eaten yet!

This is what I mean by expenses rising. I can see it if you’re a young, healthy single person, but add in a spouse and kids and ooooh boy do things change.

swaayze
09-10-2018, 08:32 AM
Itís a sneakers/charging bear situation. The $1M doesnít have to last a lifetime; it only has to outlast everyone elseís retirement fund. :D

Ha, I wish. Already far ahead of the average American.

Sadly itís obvious that retirement is gonna be quite the crisis in the years ahead now that DB pensions are mostly gone and the vast majority saves little to nothing.

rickair7777
09-10-2018, 08:38 AM
Itís a sneakers/charging bear situation. The $1M doesnít have to last a lifetime; it only has to outlast everyone elseís retirement fund. :D

I don't know about that... when they all run out of savings, they'll be voting for politicians who plan to seize YOUR savings.

The system is spring-loaded to divert wealth to those who are currently working, and/or those who can muster political power. CA pols were discussing retro-active tax changes at one point as a way to to feed their vast social programs... they would increase the rates on past tax years, and then retro-bill those with the means to pay. That would include folks who have subsequently moved out of state, since they are concerned that when they really start tightening the screws that those with flexible employment situations (ex pilots, work-from-home types) and retirees would leave in droves to protect their assets.

I'll diversify eventually, might even need to go offshore if that can provide legal protections.

galaxy flyer
09-10-2018, 09:28 AM
Ha, I wish. Already far ahead of the average American.

Sadly itís obvious that retirement is gonna be quite the crisis in the years ahead now that DB pensions are mostly gone and the vast majority saves little to nothing.

Defined benefit plans were never as widespread as believed or as lucrative. Only about a third of the population had anything like a DB plan and many paid little, perhaps 1/4 to 1/2 do social security. And, all DB plans were invested in the same markets as your current 401k, just a bit cheaper fees. Ask the many state retirees with grossly underfunded DB how secure they feel. I know lots of CT retirees wondering if theyíre gonna wind up with a big haircut like the RI retirees got. See Central Falls, RI

GF

SonicFlyer
09-10-2018, 02:55 PM
$1M can't be anywhere near enough to retire early. Very true... $2 million is really what's needed to live a fairly upper middle class lifestyle with longevity. That produces an income of $100k/yr which will work for most places.



If too many people rack up a big nest egg and retire, there will be nobody left to do the work. Inflation and wages will rise, your lawn guy would then charge $100K to mow your lawn, and your employed neighbor who's now making $2M/month could afford it.This statement shows a gross lack of understanding of economics, human nature, and investments...

1- not enough people will be following the "live beneath your means" plan

2- investments, especially a properly diversified portfolio, will always keep up with inflation... companies have to raise prices too

3- the entire scenario you described is patently absurd.

SonicFlyer
09-10-2018, 02:57 PM
Increased income yearly is exactly the issue/problem. You cannot index yearly to inflation unless you have returns measurably over and above inflation. While that has been very easy for the last ten years that wonít always be the case. Soon (?) that will flip flop for a time and portfolios will decrease, but your minimum expenses will continue to increase, eating into your principal (unless youíre working some); the boat will take on water faster than you can bail without a bigger bucket (other income). Thatís why the best of the promoters are quick to disclose that itís more about FI than RE.

Yet this is what I worry that many of the younger FIRE folks really donít get, because they havenít lived a couple of market cycles as investors (or even employees). For instance, I can assure you that spending more by converting to a ROTH during my two furloughs was the last thing on my mind, tax savings be damned.

A properly diversified portfolio always makes money over the long term and almost always makes money over the medium term. This is why anything less than $2 million just isn't enough to retire on with a 5% withdrawl.

SonicFlyer
09-10-2018, 02:59 PM
I don't know about that... when they all run out of savings, they'll be voting for politicians who plan to seize YOUR savings.Exactly. Notice how a lot of people are moving out of s-holes like NY and LA and Chicago... and they are moving to places like IN, OH, TN, TX, AZ, ID, CO.... and they are voting the exact same way that they did in the cesspool in which they left.

CA pols were discussing retro-active tax changes at one point as a way to to feed their vast social programs... they would increase the rates on past tax years, and then retro-bill those with the means to pay. That would include folks who have subsequently moved out of state, since they are concerned that when they really start tightening the screws that those with flexible employment situations (ex pilots, work-from-home types) and retirees would leave in droves to protect their assets.
LOL... that would be tossed out in court faster than a New York minute! :D

swaayze
09-11-2018, 08:05 AM
Defined benefit plans were never as widespread as believed or as lucrative.

GF

Perhaps, but that was not really the point I was trying to illuminate. No argument on the security of a DB plan (BTDT).

DB plans were at least something for many, designed as a piece of the puzzle (3-legged stool analogy). They were mindless and required no action on the part of the employee. Now, most people still take no action, but the stool only has two legs to begin with. Hard days are coming for them, which will inevitably create a crisis that those of us who have worked hard and sacrificed now to have a secure future will likely be called upon to solve.

Stimpy the Kat
09-12-2018, 08:02 AM
" What most people don't realize, or fail to, is that things don't buy happiness, but instead buy burden."

Yup. That is why they are called possessions...they possess you.

And funny, according to my calculations, when I retire I am in danger of leaving WAY to much money to my heirs if I don't start spending more.

1-2M to retire comfortably ?

Man, ya'll must have Crack habits or another Family on the side. (?)

:)

swaayze
09-12-2018, 08:35 AM
"

1-2M to retire comfortably ?

Man, ya'll must have Crack habits or another Family on the side. (?)

:)

The discussion is EARLY Retirement, like in your late 20ís or 30's (a typical FIRE goal).

$1-2M would be ok for most of us if retiring after 60 and within 10 years from now or so, AND assuming SS will provide most of what itís supposed to. But trying to do a 4% withdrawal yearly, and keep up with inflation, over a 40-60 year retirement without considerable risk is very unlikely on (at least the low end of) that range imo.

You have to wrap your head around increasing medical expenses; regardless of lifestyle, aging causes problems. Medicare just isnít that great or inexpensive. And Iím factoring that some degree of medical assistance (LTC) will likely be required. Either pay large premiums now for insurance or save additional capital to draw down as needed (capital is my plan for now, as I cannot imagine I can get my spouse covered at any reasonable rate given her Type 1 diabetes and associated issues).

$40-80k/yr is doable, but donít forget some of that will still be taxed. And property taxes, insurance, maintenance and utilities will all continue to increase as well. Tax rates will likely never be lower than today. Etc.

Stimpy the Kat
09-12-2018, 10:06 AM
20's and 30's?

Yup...you will need ALL of the 1-2M.



:)

swaayze
09-12-2018, 03:47 PM
Aw Stimpy, you deleted the stuff I was gonna congratulate you on.

Yes, you are atypical and in a great way. I wish I was as disciplined. Continue to enjoy your apparent FI.

I, otoh, am looking at retirement in 14 years, so I expect today's $1M to be equivalent to about $1.5M at that point. It would throw off about $60k/yr (or $40k/yr in today's dollars) to supplement any SS I might get. While my expenses should definitely decline, I'm also hoping to amass enough to have 100% of my pre-retirement spending in income. Then I can continue to splurge once in a while and to help out the adult kids on occasion.

To be clear though, I won't be retiring in my 30's; more like 65 :o

Name User
09-18-2018, 07:38 PM
Increased income yearly is exactly the issue/problem. You cannot index yearly to inflation unless you have returns measurably over and above inflation. While that has been very easy for the last ten years that wonít always be the case. Soon (?) that will flip flop for a time and portfolios will decrease, but your minimum expenses will continue to increase, eating into your principal (unless youíre working some); the boat will take on water faster than you can bail without a bigger bucket (other income). Thatís why the best of the promoters are quick to disclose that itís more about FI than RE.

Yet this is what I worry that many of the younger FIRE folks really donít get, because they havenít lived a couple of market cycles as investors (or even employees). For instance, I can assure you that spending more by converting to a ROTH during my two furloughs was the last thing on my mind, tax savings be damned. Even Mr. Money Mustache, with whom Iím sure youíre familiar, is wishfully thinking on their expenses as they age. I have probably never been healthier, but passing 50 I also have more medical expense than ever, some almost directly attributed to an active lifestyle. My kids are about to go to college and I refuse to have them graduate with lots of debt, so if they stay good then I help out significantly. Not to mention the costs of their four years in HS marching band, a couple of ten year old cars to buy, maintain and insure, etc.

There are so many FI blogs and podcasts by young folks that are a bit idealistic compared to the buckle down mentality of a Dave Ramsey, and Iím afraid time will hurt some folks who think theyíre prepared but really are not.

No doubt tough, there is great value in subscribing to many of these tenets (of both generations', the MMM and the DR). Although I donít really expect, or even truly want, yet, to RE, I DO wish quite frequently that I already had FU money in the bank.


BTW: when I say ďyouĒ Iím being generic, not pretending to know how you specifically will fare. Sounds like your expenses are well controlled.
Actually it's not a problem. FireCalc will calculate your success rate and with proper asset allocation a 4% withdrawal rate will give you success over your planned lifetime of 99%+.

You are correct about healthcare, but the ACA hopefully would help with that. The key is keeping your taxed income low.

Name User
09-18-2018, 08:25 PM
And finally a nosy question (feel free to tell me to bug off, though it is genuine and I feel that I can learn from you; but still has a point if rhetorical):

You mention lowered expenses by $1000/mo if/when you pay off your mortgage, but expenses of only ~ $3400/mo now. So if your P&I is $1000/mo I assume you are probably spending almost that much each month on property tax and insurance (assume youíre in DFW from your earlier references, so maybe $600-700 at the least). How the heck do you spend only ~ $1800/mo on everything else? We spend that on utilities, auto gas, and other insurances alone (disability, life and auto - we're well covered, but all are necessary imo). Notice we havenít eaten yet!

This is what I mean by expenses rising. I can see it if youíre a young, healthy single person, but add in a spouse and kids and ooooh boy do things change.

Our mortgage is around $1100 but not in Texas. So total expenses outside that are around $2,300/month. $400+ is food, that is the budget buster!

We don't have any disability or life insurance but do have 300/500 on our autos plus another $1m in umbrella.

No kids but we do have an old dog that is getting expensive!

Our budget is pretty bare bones by what most would consider "required spending". I am very driven to reduce costs and will spend money to do so. Example, several years ago I dumped about $1500 into a car that wasn't worth that on paper, but continues to perform well as a daily driver/airport car to this day. We cook the vast majority of our meals which we enjoy doing. Prepaid cell phone plans. Lots of DIY work. I even (gasp) mow my own lawn. I don't think I've talked to a single guy who does that here!

I get my shopping fix by buying stock.

If you have the assets you really don't need most insurance besides auto and home. IMO. Most guys way overbuy insurance but that is also coupled with their inflated lifestyle spending levels. I see budgets of $6, $7, $8+ a month and wonder what they are thinking. Who knows maybe most people have several million. I really don't know. But it would freak me out, in our industry, to know you have to come up with that kind of money every month just to pay bills.

swaayze
09-18-2018, 08:45 PM
Had heard of FireCalc, just went and checked it out briefly. Very interesting. Controlling spending definitely seems to be the key.

Youíre right: IF you only spend $30k/yr (indexed) for the rest of your life and start with $1M at 35yo expecting to live to 85, itís a very high probability of success.

Itís that expectation to keep spending that low that I think is naive, unless you are VERY frugal and VERY fortunate. But I agree, it does seem likely to be doable if so.

Plugged in some non-frugal numbers (used $60k/yr spending, which I could likely undercut noticeably with a little effort, but figure this provides a buffer) for retirement at 50 with a 35 year expectancy. Iíd need $1.5M to get a 93% probability. Back to work....

swaayze
09-18-2018, 09:05 PM
Well, just posted that but hadnít seen your follow-up.

I mow my own lawn too, heaven forbid. Tons of DIY on the home and autos, now if I could just learn to enjoy DIY in the kitchen....

Got a lot of life insurance now, since wife isnít working and weíre still a long way from 65 with two college educations to help fund. Those expenses will drop somewhat over time, eventually to zero. The expensive own-occupation disability and our auto and umbrella policies (sky high thanks to the two teens covered) will eventually drop as well.

Property taxes and utilities are killers in TX. That, our high medical expenses, and too much eating out are our weak points. The rest of our spending is pretty minimal by todayís ďtypicalĒ standards.

The FireCalc scenarios are a sobering illumination of how important the spending is in making the money last. Gonna have to spend some more time there.

Stimpy the Kat
09-20-2018, 11:47 AM
FireCalc is interesting in it's non-standard methodology and when using the same assumptions and cross checking against my favorite financial calculator (below) it is quite reassuring.

Try this one:

https://www.bankrate.com/calculators/retirement/retirement-plan-calculator.aspx

I like to use dismal, worst case, predictions/assumptions such as:

- Inflation at 3%

- Earnings in retirement at 4%

- NO S.S.

If your numbers crunch okay with these variables, look how nice they are using 6-8% returns , S.S., and inflation at 2.5%

Life Is Good.

:)




Stimpson

Stimpy the Kat
09-20-2018, 12:19 PM
" I see budgets of $6, $7, $8+ a month and wonder what they are thinking..."

Well, the truth is MOST Americans have no idea what a budget is, or where there money goes, or how money works.

I asked a friend who was losing his job what his monthly financial needs were and he told me about 10k per month.

I knew the cars he drove, the house he lived in, etc. and that made NO sense whatsoever. (?)

Upon further questioning his reasoning was this:

" I make about 120k a year, so yeah, about Ten Thousand a month is what I need to live on ! "


Absolutely clueless as to actual requirements and / or how money, taxes, budgets etc. actually work.

This is an intelligent man...otherwise.

It's frightening.


:(

STK

swaayze
09-23-2018, 01:01 PM
Wow, thatís pretty sad, and I suspect way too common.

I too prefer to assume minimal returns, and zero SS. However Iím old enough now that I do think that SS will provide a portion of what I am promised, so Iím starting to be cautiously optimistic that Iíll get about 2/3 of the estimate. I cannot fathom planning to earn 8-10% on retirement funds (I certainly think itís doable for shorter time periods, and of course Iíll be trying, but thatís just unreasonable long-term planning in my opinion). 6% is the upper end of what I use as an expect, but again I hope Iím very wrong and pleasantly surprised.

The FireCalc backtesting method IS quite reassuring, Iím just not convinced that it will hold up. Weíve been through an industrial revolution and a tech revolution that have created great gains, but will the automation revolution help or hurt? Probably help the early investors and the well educated, but I do fear for the availability of decent jobs for the majority of people which could lead to overall economic drag and market lethargy.

swaayze
09-23-2018, 01:27 PM
So a sidetrack:

What sources do yíall recommend?

I have a few that I regularly check out but really havenít tried too many in the FIRE area.

PODCASTS:

Better Off - not FIRE at all, in fact she just told some poor 50yo guy with almost $3M that sheís not sure heíd be safe retiring. WTF? Obviously sheís way too conservative but the info is often good and it balances in my mind the very low numbers some FIRE folks put out there.

Listen Money Matters - was bad, then pretty good, now not as good again. Entertaining more than highly educational to me.

ChooseFI - just tuned into this one recently, seems promising

BLOGGERS:

Mr Money Mustache - Obviously. Entertaining, informative and not just about FIRE or even money. Dishes out face-punches and leaves me asking ďThank you sir may I have another!Ē

Heís the only one Iíve completely followed, though Iíve heard of many other standards like ERE, GET RICH SLOWLY, MAD FIENTIST, FRUGALWOODS. Any of these worth following religiously? Others?

Of course Iíve been reading financial info for 30 yrs. (Charles J Givens and Carlton Sheets anyone?) Tuned into Dave Ramsey almost daily for a year or so and like his common sense, no nonsense attitude but it got old and redundant. So Iíve got a pretty good knowledge base but I find that seeking new points of view and different paths keeps me motivated to not get out of control (Iím finally making good money and feeling some temptation after many years of making not-so-much money, which made serious discipline mandatory).

Stimpy the Kat
09-24-2018, 02:50 PM
So a sidetrack:

What sources do y’all recommend?

I have a few that I regularly check out but really haven’t tried too many in the FIRE area.

PODCASTS:

Better Off - not FIRE at all, in fact she just told some poor 50yo guy with almost $3M that she’s not sure he’d be safe retiring. WTF? Obviously she’s way too conservative but the info is often good and it balances in my mind the very low numbers some FIRE folks put out there.

Listen Money Matters - was bad, then pretty good, now not as good again. Entertaining more than highly educational to me.

ChooseFI - just tuned into this one recently, seems promising

BLOGGERS:

Mr Money Mustache - Obviously. Entertaining, informative and not just about FIRE or even money. Dishes out face-punches and leaves me asking “Thank you sir may I have another!”

He’s the only one I’ve completely followed, though I’ve heard of many other standards like ERE, GET RICH SLOWLY, MAD FIENTIST, FRUGALWOODS. Any of these worth following religiously? Others?

Of course I’ve been reading financial info for 30 yrs. (Charles J Givens and Carlton Sheets anyone?) Tuned into Dave Ramsey almost daily for a year or so and like his common sense, no nonsense attitude but it got old and redundant. So I’ve got a pretty good knowledge base but I find that seeking new points of view and different paths keeps me motivated to not get out of control (I’m finally making good money and feeling some temptation after many years of making not-so-much money, which made serious discipline mandatory).


My take:

IF IT'S COMING FROM SOMEBODY ELSE'S MOUTH...THEY ARE A SALESMAN. THEY MAKE THEIR LIVING STEALING YOUR MONEY BY TELLING YOU THAT YOU HAVE NO IDEA WHAT YOU ARE DOING WITH IT.

THINK ABOUT IT.

Common Sense, Grade School Math and, a few simple online calculators...Will give you all the Answers you need.


:)

Peace.

P.S. - Historically, you will see 8% annually in the U.S. Markets. Plan on 4%. Live on 2%.

swaayze
09-24-2018, 03:24 PM
Ha ha, I hear you, but Iím not sure weíre talking about the same things. Blogs and podcasts typically donít sell anything, though they do have sponsors. I just listen for entertainment and to gather intel and ideas, not stocks.

Now Dave Ramsey otoh.....

SimMonkey
09-30-2018, 05:02 AM
Charles Givens is the man. I keep a copy of ďWealth without riskĒ in the bathroom for easy reading 😊. I recently bought a new copy at a used book store for $3. I gave this to my son to read. Biggest expenses in life : Taxes, home loan, auto loans, insurance. It behooves one to become an expert on these subjects. I drive a twenty year old car that I maintain myself. I think I have financed it at least four times. Why you ask? Cheap money to invest. My last five year car loan allowed me to borrow money at 1.49%. My house refinanced several times when interest rates were dropping (Givens interest rates chart explaining market shifts based on prime rates should be required reading in high school). This allowed me to pay off my house in fifteen years while maintaining approximately the same payment (think refinancing a thirty year mortgage to a twenty followed by a ten year mortgage at 2.5%). I do most of my own maintenance around the house, but I know my limits. Sometimes it makes more sense to hire it out and pickup an extra day of flying. I enjoy mowing and washing my car. I always always always fund my retirement first. Then we make the most of whats left. Its not that hard. It just requires some self discipline.

Stimpy the Kat
10-01-2018, 09:35 AM
Hmmm..

Can you expand on the car refinance scenario a bit?

Thanks.

STK

SimMonkey
10-03-2018, 10:24 AM
Stimpy,

My family situation requires four cars. They were all paid off numerous times. I shop interest rates all the time : Penfed, AA credit union, Navy Federal. The last time I refinanced all four into a used car rate of 1.49% for five years. I max out their KBB value. Some banks allow you to borrow 115% of their value. I use this cheap money to invest in items that pay much more. This strategy won’t be as effective as interest rates rise, but I think you could still find five years loans at 2.25 today (I’m just ballparking it). To me, that is still cheap money.

decrabbitz
10-03-2018, 10:15 PM
I'll throw my $.02 in...

Haven't seen anyone mention Quicken. 20 years ago I started logging EVERY penny I spent into the software program. I had always kept a balanced checkbook, but that didn't explain where all the money went. Now I know, and it's helped me be aware of how to control spending. Found out I was spending more on bridge tolls than wine!

I buy new cars and keep them until they die. (No hidden problems like in used cars). Once I paid off the first loan, I kept making payments to myself in a separate account for the next car which I paid cash for, and same thing for the third. So I've had no car loan since 2002.

For a retirement plan, ALPA pays Schwab to do one for us for free. Very detailed product, and if you've paid yourself first over the years, will give you a warm fuzzy.

Gotta step...enjoy talking money with like minded pilots!

Stimpy the Kat
10-04-2018, 08:05 AM
Stimpy,

My family situation requires four cars. They were all paid off numerous times. I shop interest rates all the time : Penfed, AA credit union, Navy Federal. The last time I refinanced all four into a used car rate of 1.49% for five years. I max out their KBB value. Some banks allow you to borrow 115% of their value. I use this cheap money to invest in items that pay much more. This strategy won’t be as effective as interest rates rise, but I think you could still find five years loans at 2.25 today (I’m just ballparking it). To me, that is still cheap money.


I understood and had inferred the above process but have trouble making the numbers crunch (?)

Example:

> Used car worth maybe $8,000.

> Loan at 2.25 % over 5 years = $8900.00 owed

------------ -----------------------------------

> $8,000 invested returns of 10.0 % over 5 years = $4000.00

> $4000.00 - $900.00 = $3100.00/5 = $620.00


So, you clear about $620.00 / year.

Is this an accurate example of what you are doing?

Stimpson

swaayze
10-06-2018, 06:44 AM
I too use Quicken religiously, though not so much to control spending as to simply be aware of it (yes I should budget but itís just not my thing - my control mechanism is intrinsic based on my known state of the financial union gained from keeping track a couple of days a week).

Iím debt averse, so the car financing thing seems crazy to me. We have lotsa cars w/ two teen drivers so our expenses are high; but the newest is a 2007 with 164k. I do the vast majority of my own auto (and home) maintenance too, but itís gotten bad to a point of frustration when I have to pay someone else (I guess I have a problem....).

Iíve also bought furniture and flooring on zero-percent-for-years deals and I always want/need and do get them paid-off early. Still paying on my one foolish foray into a 401k loan when I needed a cash position a couple of years ago. Thatís not really a debt but is driving me crazy too. Iím hesitant to pay it early as Iím feeling the market is due for a significant pullback so Iím DCA'ing it back in with monthly payments, but man do I want that off the books. The mortgage is about the only debt I can take; refi'd to a 20 yr a number of years ago so the interest portion of our payment is quite palatable.

SimMonkey
10-08-2018, 03:21 PM
Stimpy,

That's about it. Compound interest in your example would clear about $884 a year, for five years, for doing about 30 minutes of online applications. When interest rates were lower, Penfed actually had a Black Friday special of a 5 year refinance at .99%. I had four cars worth about $60,000 that were paid off. This isn't big money, but I like the spread. Like I said, it was painless through one of my credit unions. I like easy money. I wish I could scale this up a few million :)

Std Deviation
10-09-2018, 01:57 PM
Stimpy,

My family situation requires four cars. They were all paid off numerous times. I shop interest rates all the time : Penfed, AA credit union, Navy Federal. The last time I refinanced all four into a used car rate of 1.49% for five years. I max out their KBB value. Some banks allow you to borrow 115% of their value. I use this cheap money to invest in items that pay much more. This strategy won’t be as effective as interest rates rise, but I think you could still find five years loans at 2.25 today (I’m just ballparking it). To me, that is still cheap money.

So you’re borrowing money on things that depreciate in value (cars) and using the borrowed money to engage in speculation on other financial products/items/instruments? I prefer paying cash for cars, having no debt, and using all my income for investments. There’s no such thing as easy money. Momma said there’s a place you can go if your need money....it’s calld WORK... :) Four pieces of advice to never take from pilots : financial, fitness, culinary, and relationship.

Lots of guys are self reportedly “killing it” with financial schemes but seem to have negative net worth. It’s just like getting ripped in the gym: stick to the basics and lift heavy and you’ll do great.

Std Deviation
10-09-2018, 02:12 PM
A properly diversified portfolio always makes money over the long term and almost always makes money over the medium term. This is why anything less than $2 million just isn't enough to retire on with a 5% withdrawl.

Iíll bring up an interesting philosophical debate on the withdrawal rate. Retaining the principle is only a factor because you donít know when youíll die. Unless you just decide when you reach age ďXĒ youíll ďcheck yourself out.Ē Then you can pull far in excess of the mythical withdrawal rate. So if you retired at 65 and say your X was 75 you could live like royalty on 2 million for the next 10 years. Thereís an article by a Harvard professor entitled , ďWhy I hope to die at 75.Ē Fascinating read. For the non religious without any heirs this philosophy is intriguing. No Iím not crazy. This whole financial paradigm is driven by the unknown X. You could drop dead at 85 with a couple million tucked away and what good is that:) The last check I write is going to the undertaker - and Iím hoping that bounces.

Iíll literally give my money to a cat charity - I donít like cats - before I let my deadbeat relatives inherit it.

SimMonkey
10-10-2018, 06:04 PM
So youíre borrowing money on things that depreciate in value (cars) and using the borrowed money to engage in speculation on other financial products/items/instruments? I prefer paying cash for cars, having no debt, and using all my income for investments. Thereís no such thing as easy money. Momma said thereís a place you can go if your need money....itís calld WORK... :) Four pieces of advice to never take from pilots : financial, fitness, culinary, and relationship.

Lots of guys are self reportedly ďkilling itĒ with financial schemes but seem to have negative net worth. Itís just like getting ripped in the gym: stick to the basics and lift heavy and youíll do great.

Let me correct you:

I am leveraging an asset to obtain financing (OPM) at an interest rate that could be the cheapest in the history of financing in order to obtain my long term goals. What does the fact that cars depreciate have anything to do with this? As far as my momma, she used to tell me to make my money do the work. So far I'm doing fine. I grew up in a family of accountants. I happen to graduate from one of the best Accounting schools in the nation and was a CFO at one time.

I wouldn't call this "killing it", but I do have a net worth in excess of seven figures.

B727DRVR
10-12-2018, 12:16 PM
My best advice to retire in your 30's... Be born on 3rd base:D!

My roommate in college came in with hundreds of hours of flight time and his Commercial, Multi-Engine, and Instrument. His family had a C182, a Bonanza, and a C310R, where he obtained most of his flight time before he started flying checks. He majored in AMM, so he got his A & P License. For his 19th birthday present, he got his B727 Flight Engineer rating. I know, this would be an easy guy to envy/dislike, but he was awesome and didn't flaunt it.

He was hired by TWA by, I believe, 24 years old. He met a Christian Flight Attendant who helped him find God, so after his trust fund came in at 25, he went on to retire at 28 and began missionary work. This was the guy who used to carry a mini boom box and blender in his flight bag.....:D

Again, be born on third base!

Name User
10-13-2018, 09:16 AM
Let me correct you:

I am leveraging an asset to obtain financing (OPM) at an interest rate that could be the cheapest in the history of financing in order to obtain my long term goals. What does the fact that cars depreciate have anything to do with this? As far as my momma, she used to tell me to make my money do the work. So far I'm doing fine. I grew up in a family of accountants. I happen to graduate from one of the best Accounting schools in the nation and was a CFO at one time.

I wouldn't call this "killing it", but I do have a net worth in excess of seven figures.
The bigger mistake is having $60,000 in depreciating equipment sitting in your driveway.

BUT you do bring up a really good point. Say one did have a bunch of paid off newer cars in the driveway, but also had a mortgage at 5%. Take the loan on the cars at .99% (or whatever) and pay down the mortgage at 5%. Your monthly payments would go up but overall your financial situation would improve. However, the difference wouldn't amount to much. Like I said you are much further ahead not buying those cars in the first place and spending a lot less money on beaters, and reducing how many you need overall.

SimMonkey
10-13-2018, 11:15 AM
The bigger mistake is having $60,000 in depreciating equipment sitting in your driveway.

BUT you do bring up a really good point. Say one did have a bunch of paid off newer cars in the driveway, but also had a mortgage at 5%. Take the loan on the cars at .99% (or whatever) and pay down the mortgage at 5%. Your monthly payments would go up but overall your financial situation would improve. However, the difference wouldn't amount to much. Like I said you are much further ahead not buying those cars in the first place and spending a lot less money on beaters, and reducing how many you need overall.

Like I said, my family situation calls for four cars. Iím not a fan of putting money into cars, but both kids are at separate colleges which requires two additional cars. My personal car is twenty years old. My prior car I drove for twenty years as well. I travel alot and want the family in good dependable used cars, not beaters.

The cost of cars are crazy today. My first car was a nissan pickup. I purchased it for $5,000. I drove it for twenty years. I sold it for $3,500. That was money well spent.

Stimpy the Kat
10-18-2018, 08:24 AM
" The cost of cars are crazy today. My first car was a nissan pickup. I purchased it for $5,000. I drove it for twenty years. I sold it for $3,500. That was money well spent."

NICE.

:)

ScarebusPusher
01-26-2019, 04:17 AM
" The cost of cars are crazy today. My first car was a nissan pickup. I purchased it for $5,000. I drove it for twenty years. I sold it for $3,500. That was money well spent."

NICE.

:)
My last car (in the U.K.) was a simply majestic thing - a 12 year old BMW740. £2200! Sold for what I paid for it a couple of years later.

She did love a bit of fuel, though.

On the subject of retirement, it is very daunting to see the figures required for a sustainable, comfortable lifestyle.

Iím 35. My planned retirement is in the U.K. and to do so, I would like an inflation-adjusted income of around £50,000. So, thatís around 2.2m nominal. Bearing in mind Iíd like to retire early so I can enjoy it, Iíve got work to do! Yes, as per the OP, if I want a penny-pinching retirement of existence, a fraction of that would be fine. However, I want a couple of holidays, nice food, my motorbike, etc. Nothing extravagant, just normal stuff that we all work hard for.

Iím lucky in that I live as an expat in a low tax environment, without healthcare costs. I saved hard to buy a (modestly priced) house outright, so now I have to set to work on the retirement front.

While my pay is decent, with low tax and no healthcare costs (or kids) Iím able to squirrel cash away at a decent rate at the moment. That said, my retirement is ENTIRELY my responsibility, as having been an expat my whole adult life, Iíve got no state pension. What have when I retire is what I have to make work.

If I can achieve an annualised 6% across my investments, that should work out. That said, the best laid plans and all...

In summary, some may be able to retire at my age with 800k generating 30,000 a year, but unless they were extremely well paid, theyíve had a crap time getting there, and will likely have a slightly less-crap time after.

Play the hand youíve got, and be responsible. But remember we likely have a spouse who we want to care for, we have interests and hobbies, and we are a long time dead.

Tom a Hawk
03-29-2019, 08:56 AM
Iíll bring up an interesting philosophical debate on the withdrawal rate. Retaining the principle is only a factor because you donít know when youíll die. Unless you just decide when you reach age ďXĒ youíll ďcheck yourself out.Ē Then you can pull far in excess of the mythical withdrawal rate. So if you retired at 65 and say your X was 75 you could live like royalty on 2 million for the next 10 years. Thereís an article by a Harvard professor entitled , ďWhy I hope to die at 75.Ē Fascinating read. For the non religious without any heirs this philosophy is intriguing. No Iím not crazy. This whole financial paradigm is driven by the unknown X. You could drop dead at 85 with a couple million tucked away and what good is that:) The last check I write is going to the undertaker - and Iím hoping that bounces.

Iíll literally give my money to a cat charity - I donít like cats - before I let my deadbeat relatives inherit it.

So lemme get this straight. You save your whole life for 10 years of blowing money out your arse and then off yourself when it runs out? Think it would be far easier to spend every dollar you make, leverage yourself with credit for a couple years and then jump off a bridge. Longer enjoyment timeline if a shorter life.

Of course you could just go on living in the poor house, at least youíll be old when youíre doing it instead of denying yourself when youíre young.

sailingfun
03-31-2019, 03:12 AM
I knew a guy once. He only made the smartest financial decisions. Saved every dime he possible could. Never went on vacation, ate cheaply at home, still had his first car, paid his small house off in 10 years. Lived to be 88. Miserable right up to the day he died but his heirs were very happy!



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