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View Full Version : Allegiant Investor Day


crxpilot
09-13-2018, 07:09 AM
Today is an Allegiant Investor Day. Interesting reading if you are looking for facts (mostly Sunseeker 🙄)

http://ir.allegiantair.com/static-files/fd068923-19c9-457a-abc1-4fd40ba3ac39


ecam
09-13-2018, 08:12 AM
This presentation as well as oral statements made by officers or directors of Allegiant Travel Company, its advisors and affiliates (collectively or separately, the "Companyď) will contain forward-looking statements that are only predictions and involve risks and uncertainties. Forward-looking statements may include, among others, references to future performance and any comments about our strategic plans. There are many risk factors that could prevent us from achieving our goals and cause the underlying assumptions of these forward-looking statements, and our actual results, to differ materially from those expressed in, or implied by, our forward-looking statements. These risk factors and others are more fully discussed in our filings with the Securities and Exchange Commission. Any forward-looking statements are based on information available to us today and we undertake no obligation to update publicly any forward- looking statements, whether as a result of future events, new information or otherwise. The Company cautions users of this presentation not to place undue reliance on forward-looking statements, which may be based on assumptions and anticipated events that do not materialize.

Everything after that is wishful thinking.

Seems to me that they are building a team almost exclusively of former MGM executives. One must ask why they left MGM, and whether they understand that Vegas always sells itself. The swamps of Charlotte County do not.

They seem to assume most who go to PGD are staying at a high end resort. My understanding of PGD is that a large majority of passengers are snowbirds in the winter, and that it's pretty quiet in the summer months. I assume the snowbirds already own places to stay there and don't need a luxury resort. They also aren't addressing survey bias: those who bother to fill out surveys usually fit the demographic that is being targeted by the survey, and therefore the survey is self fulfilling. So if a majority that they surveyed showed high income and interest in high end resorts, it's probably because the snowbirds (retired Boomers on a fixed income) didn't bother to fill out surveys.

The resorts they are comparing themselves to are in places like Sanibel, Marco, Longboat Key, Naples. All of these places are in close proximity to sandy beaches on the gulf. Sunseeker will be a solid 45 minutes from any public gulf beaches. I think they underestimate or even ignore the draw that the gulf has for the competing resorts. Those escaping winter want to be near the ocean.

If I were an investor, I wouldn't even consider this risky and poorly thought out venture. But hey, I'm just a pilot, what do I know.

At least they claim the airline is alive and well, and will still be a business focus on just one page of this 76 page report (page 13)...

CAirBear
09-13-2018, 09:23 AM
Everything after that is wishful thinking.

Seems to me that they are building a team almost exclusively of former MGM executives. One must ask why they left MGM, and whether they understand that Vegas always sells itself. The swamps of Charlotte County do not.

They seem to assume most who go to PGD are staying at a high end resort. My understanding of PGD is that a large majority of passengers are snowbirds in the winter, and that it's pretty quiet in the summer months. I assume the snowbirds already own places to stay there and don't need a luxury resort. They also aren't addressing survey bias: those who bother to fill out surveys usually fit the demographic that is being targeted by the survey, and therefore the survey is self fulfilling. So if a majority that they surveyed showed high income and interest in high end resorts, it's probably because the snowbirds (retired Boomers on a fixed income) didn't bother to fill out surveys.

The resorts they are comparing themselves to are in places like Sanibel, Marco, Longboat Key, Naples. All of these places are in close proximity to sandy beaches on the gulf. Sunseeker will be a solid 45 minutes from any public gulf beaches. I think they underestimate or even ignore the draw that the gulf has for the competing resorts. Those escaping winter want to be near the ocean.

If I were an investor, I wouldn't even consider this risky and poorly thought out venture. But hey, I'm just a pilot, what do I know.

At least they claim the airline is alive and well, and will still be a business focus on just one page of this 76 page report (page 13)...

All very valid points. This is a ridiculously stupid and risky endeavor. I donít understand why when companies are able to do one (maybe 2 things) really really well that makes money, is successful etc, they try and do something else thinking ďitís bound to workĒ 🤷🏻*♂️

I was on a flight of ours last week and a passenger was asking me about Sunseeker. I played along, but I had to bite my tounge. This particular gentlemen and his wife, already had a small winter place. I do not see him selling his place and dropping $600k+ for some small ass 1 bedroom. If they studied the demographics you would know that people that are willing to spend that kind of money are already in Sarasota and Ft Myers. It isnít PGD.

Iíll run down a few bullet points of what Iíve been told is happening. Tell me if this is something that is moving in a positive direction.

1. Supposed site has inconsistent sandy soil that is NOT conducive to build on. Reputable FL contractors have rejected doing this job. What does that tell you? (The Pax even mentioned the soil as well) Sounds like itís common knowledge?

We are allegedly finding contractors from outside of FL (with no experience down there) bidding for this job.

2. This wasnít supposed to require much (if any) financing. They were to have sold the units before construction and had this cash flowed.

Of course now we are financing and it sounds like some of our aircraft are listed as collateral. Think about what may happen if this goes south.

3. You nailed it with all the ex MGM people. Iíve flown with someone who has a friend who is also an MGM exec. This particular person didnít think alll that well of JR.

So yeah things are off to a terrific start! Keep up the good work and try not destroying your airline in the process. Thanks


9easy
09-15-2018, 01:36 PM
Reading this presentation was very disturbing. Personally I'd be much more worried about this project now than the other obvious risks that still face the company. The $400m plus of outlay for this single resort could have paid for a fleet of 20+ brand new A220s in cash. But that $400m is only a down payment on what could be billions in liability and costs. Hope my fears are proven wrong, but investing in Florida real estate at the end of the economic cycle is very worrisome.

Mrcaptrorysir
09-16-2018, 10:28 PM
Why does ecam not have a life?

JustWatching
09-17-2018, 04:51 AM
Why does ecam not have a life?

Why donít you have a life? Jumping on every thread with your fancy one liners.

ecam
09-19-2018, 09:21 AM
Family Fun Centers! Yet another thing to distract management. It's almost like Allegiant Travel Company doesn't want to be in the airline business anymore.

Clearfield UT is BFE even by Utah standards, and Warren Michigan is the hood Eminem made famous in 8 Mile. Perfect locations to introduce and build your brand. Who is running this place now? Are they intentionally trying to tank the company. Those of you here for the long term better start paying attention.

310skying
09-19-2018, 10:41 AM
I don't completely hate Sunseeker, but I do acknowledge there is huge potential downside if they don't pull it off... When it comes to family fun centers though, I've just got to SMH. I will say this though, Clearfield UT isn't BFE, its essentially Ogden: one of the biggest metro areas in the state that is seamless geographically with SLC and PVU.

FFC's tend to do well in Utah, I was on a jury for a two week long case involving bowling alley in another Utah city. the bowling alley/ funcenter did 4-6 mill in revenue a year and was a cash cow owned buy some of the richest people in the country. Still, I don't think its the right direction for an airline!

If we want to waste time and money, I would rather see Maury team up with his CEO buddy Rob Katz and start seeing "Snowseekers" at already developed vail resort holdings across the country... thats where they money is at. Just look at Bloomberg's list of richest small towns in America:

https://www.bloomberg.com/news/articles/2017-03-29/america-s-mountain-west-tops-bloomberg-small-town-wealth-index

Its essentially a list of the best ski towns in the US, i do not know why we waste our time with beaches ;)

310skying
09-19-2018, 10:47 AM
Also just because I feel like starting rumors:

Vail Resorts Management Company | Board of Directors (http://www.vailresorts.com/Corp/info/board-of-directors.aspx)

Check out name number 4 on Vail's board of directors



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