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View Full Version : Upgrade times


Squallrider
10-05-2018, 01:06 PM
Curious what everyone thinks will happen in the future for upgrade times? I know itís dipped a little but I was told the ďbubbleĒ hasnít burst where we didnít hire for 5 years and after that it would go down to say 5-7 years.


PotatoChip
10-05-2018, 01:09 PM
Curious what everyone thinks will happen in the future for upgrade times? I know itís dipped a little but I was told the ďbubbleĒ hasnít burst where we didnít hire for 5 years and after that it would go down to say 5-7 years.

IF it did, that would be for those hired right after the bubble. Then you have the 2000 pilots that have been hired in the last three years.
Someone hired today surely isnít likely to see 5 years.

Thunder1
10-05-2018, 08:14 PM
IF it did, that would be for those hired right after the bubble. Then you have the 2000 pilots that have been hired in the last three years.
Someone hired today surely isnít likely to see 5 years.

That is correct. For the last 7-ish years the upgrade time has been running right at 10 years +/- a few months.
That time will come down to about 7-8 years over the next 1-3 years but to think that a new hire today or anytime in 2019 will see a 5 year upgrade is highly unlikely and not being honest to the new hire.
But like with everything in the airlines, nothing is certain so ALWAYS live well beneath your means and save for a rainy day. Best of luck.


flensr
10-05-2018, 09:17 PM
At a recent new FO event, "Mgt" seemed to be reluctant to speculate that upgrades would go earlier than 9 years. Very hesitant to speculate beyond something to the effect that it'll come down a bit.

Salukidawg
10-06-2018, 05:24 AM
Upgrade will continue to run between 9-10 years for the foreseeable future. The other X Factor to upgrade predicitions are the economy and future M&A events. The former seems fairly stable for the foreseeable future, the latter seems much more likely in the next 2-3 years. Once that happens, youíre at the mercy of how the SLI is determined between the two merging carriers. IOW, upgrade predictions are just that, predictions, and a constantly moving target.

Stitches
10-06-2018, 07:36 AM
That is correct. For the last 7-ish years the upgrade time has been running right at 10 years +/- a few months.
That time will come down to about 7-8 years over the next 1-3 years but to think that a new hire today or anytime in 2019 will see a 5 year upgrade is highly unlikely and not being honest to the new hire.

Pretty much spot on except that I am slightly more optimistic that the 2013/early 2014 hires will sneak in right at 6 years. I’m basing that off of the upgrade numbers I’ve heard for next year, LAX opening and the high bypass rate. I think mid 2015 hires and later will be looking at a solid 8 years in the right seat.

Smooth at FL450
10-06-2018, 09:41 AM
As of today, there are more upgrades planned next year, 588, than newhires, 520. For whatever that's worth. Expect the newhire # to trend upwards 2nd half of the year as it's done the past few years.

ZapBrannigan
10-06-2018, 01:40 PM
As of today, there are more upgrades planned next year, 588, than newhires, 520. For whatever that's worth. Expect the newhire # to trend upwards 2nd half of the year as it's done the past few years.


I hadnít heard that number (588) but thatís great news. That would have the early 2014 hires starting year six in 2020 only about 500 numbers junior to the most junior Captain.

Previously I had heard around 400 upgrades in 2019. Either way, a rising tide lifts all ships.


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hoover
10-06-2018, 08:01 PM
I have 1800 people in front of me to upgrade wit 1000 bypassing. Figure 400 upgrades a yr and that's 2.5 yrs from now putting me at 5 yrs. Now if everyone dosent continue to bypass that drags it out another 2.5 yrs but considering 750 out of that 1000 bypassing are airtrain East coast FOs they may not take the upgrade to commute to the west coast and be seat locked for 6 bid periods. So 5-7 yr upgrades at my senority I predict

e6bpilot
10-07-2018, 07:04 AM
That upgrade number is great if it comes to pass. It will put the 2014 hires in a great spot, seniority wise. With the amount of hiring and lag in upgrades, it would make sense, honestly, to have more upgrades than new hires. Right now the lump in the snake is huge and it is really effecting FO open time market viability and the general trading of flying that generally happens. October is a slow month, but I have never seen a big base like HOU or MDW with TTGA being empty two weeks out. That means to me that everyone has gone from giveaway to hold mode because they are afraid that they will not be able to pick up flying by other means. Great for FO reserves that live in domicile and those that just fly their line, not great for everyone else.
The upgrade time is bound to come down. How far, I donít know. I would guesstimate 7 years based on the 2011-2014 hiring slowdown and the juniority and lock associated with the etops bid group. AirTran guys are another question mark. As we work through the bottom of their former seniority list, how many will choose to upgrade and how many will bypass to stay put in Atlanta?
2018 was a great year for hiring. The training center is up and running and should be firing on all cylinders now. I am optimistic that 2019 is going to be a very interesting year for upgrades, movement, and the fallout of opening and quickly growing a new base. Hopefully by this time next year, we will have returned to a more typical manning picture and the rising tide that Zap mentioned will make everyoneís life a little bit better.

e6bpilot
10-07-2018, 07:10 AM
Upgrade will continue to run between 9-10 years for the foreseeable future. The other X Factor to upgrade predicitions are the economy and future M&A events. The former seems fairly stable for the foreseeable future, the latter seems much more likely in the next 2-3 years. Once that happens, youíre at the mercy of how the SLI is determined between the two merging carriers. IOW, upgrade predictions are just that, predictions, and a constantly moving target.



If we do merge with anyone, it will be a fringe player 737 operator like Sun Country. They have pretty much put up a for sale sign by flying a lot of the same scheduled routes we do in the same equipment.
That being said, the next merger will come after the next economic downturn when companies are on the ropes. Right now, airline stocks are still doing very well despite the price of fuel. Southwest has the size and free cash advantage to wait out the market and buy cheap.
I am a big believer in worrying about the things I can control. A merger event is definitely not one of them. I also just donít see it happening during a period of time when all airlines are still rolling in profits.

ZapBrannigan
10-07-2018, 11:38 AM
October is a slow month, but I have never seen a big base like HOU or MDW with TTGA being empty two weeks out. That means to me that everyone has gone from giveaway to hold mode because they are afraid that they will not be able to pick up flying by other means.


This is true, and a real problem as far as flexibility. I have a head cold and gave away a trip so as not to burn sick time. But as I look later in the month for things to pick up to make up for what Iíve lost, there is virtually nothing in give away, even on the weekends!

Gonna be a lean paycheck.




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Salukidawg
10-07-2018, 01:50 PM
If we do merge with anyone, it will be a fringe player 737 operator like Sun Country. They have pretty much put up a for sale sign by flying a lot of the same scheduled routes we do in the same equipment.
That being said, the next merger will come after the next economic downturn when companies are on the ropes. Right now, airline stocks are still doing very well despite the price of fuel. Southwest has the size and free cash advantage to wait out the market and buy cheap.
I am a big believer in worrying about the things I can control. A merger event is definitely not one of them. I also just donít see it happening during a period of time when all airlines are still rolling in profits.
Sun Country is a small fringe player that brings nothing to the table that we donít already do. GK is a big game hunter, it will most likely either be Alaska or JetBlue. I do agree that the company will probably wait for the next economic downturn before pulling the trigger on an M&A again though.

WHACKMASTER
10-08-2018, 06:04 AM
Sun Country is a small fringe player that brings nothing to the table that we donít already do. GK is a big game hunter, it will most likely either be Alaska or JetBlue. I do agree that the company will probably wait for the next economic downturn before pulling the trigger on an M&A again though.

I donít think SWA is going to bother with a 20 airplane carrier that brings ďnot muchĒ to the table (and I donít mean any disrespect to any Sun Country pilots reading this).

GK has said that he wouldnít be interested in acquiring another carrier unless they have something that SWA canít get on our own. Then again heís told several lies in the past so thereís that....

Tenacvols
10-08-2018, 06:33 AM
GK has said that he wouldnít be interested in acquiring another carrier unless they have something that SWA canít get on our own.

Just to stir the pot. Isnít Sun Country ETOPS qualified?

Grumpyaviator
10-08-2018, 07:05 AM
Just to stir the pot. Isnít Sun Country ETOPS qualified?

And they can accept foreign currency.

e6bpilot
10-08-2018, 08:24 AM
SWA accepts foreign currency now with the new res system.
The ETOPS program is in the finishing phases. I donít think buying Sunny would help, it would probably actually hurt that process with the feds.

PowerShift
10-08-2018, 08:51 AM
I think Hawaiian Airlines will be the next M/A, if it happens. SWA likes to own a market. They have been up and down financially and the next down turn for them I can see SWA offering 19$ tickets until a deal is struck. I donít think that is the long game, but it may turn into low hanging fruit that is too good to pass on.

RJSAviator76
10-08-2018, 11:33 AM
I think Hawaiian Airlines will be the next M/A, if it happens. SWA likes to own a market. They have been up and down financially and the next down turn for them I can see SWA offering 19$ tickets until a deal is struck. I donít think that is the long game, but it may turn into low hanging fruit that is too good to pass on.

Yep... and we'll give away the 717's and A330's to Delta, cancel 787's or give them to United. A321neo's over to Spirit. We'll offer to reconfigure and repaint them all for their new respective airlines. But not to worry... we'll keep the pilots. :p

symbian simian
10-09-2018, 02:34 PM
Yep... and we'll give away the 717's and A330's to Delta, cancel 787's or give them to United. A321neo's over to Spirit. We'll offer to reconfigure and repaint them all for their new respective airlines. But not to worry... we'll keep the pilots. :p



FTFY: But not to worry... we'll staple the pilots...

Have to admit, has a familiar ring to it.

TransWorld
10-09-2018, 04:55 PM
FTFY: But not to worry... we'll staple the pilots...

Have to admit, has a familiar ring to it.

Ouch! Shades of TWA. A good chunk of the pilots got stapled. Every single FA got stapled, then furloughed.

WHACKMASTER
10-09-2018, 05:24 PM
Ouch! Shades of TWA. A good chunk of the pilots got stapled. Every single FA got stapled, then furloughed.

Shades of AirTran (a non-bankrupt carrier unlike TWA), where the majority of FOs got stapled.

e6bpilot
10-09-2018, 05:28 PM
Shades of AirTran (a non-bankrupt carrier unlike TWA), where the majority of FOs got stapled.



https://vignette.wikia.nocookie.net/disney/images/1/1e/Stickerline-elsa-let-it-go.png/revision/latest?cb=20140528072653

symbian simian
10-09-2018, 05:57 PM
https://vignette.wikia.nocookie.net/disney/images/1/1e/Stickerline-elsa-let-it-go.png/revision/latest?cb=20140528072653

Yeah, Airtran had it's most profitable year when it was taken over. The most senior 100 FOs (at 50% relative seniority) that would have upgraded in 2010 are now getting a chance to upgrade 8 years later (and only because of 1000 pilots bypassing). ALL the pilots from AT that could hold captain on the ISL were displaced back to FO, and had to wait up to 3 years before they could bid back to captain. 900-ish pilots were displaced out of ATL. A lot of SWA pilots looked sideways at the AT pilots because they didn't get a 737 rating or interviewed.
Don't get me wrong, I would love to work for SWA, but I can certainly understand if not everyone is ready to let it go.

WHACKMASTER
10-09-2018, 09:29 PM
https://vignette.wikia.nocookie.net/disney/images/1/1e/Stickerline-elsa-let-it-go.png/revision/latest?cb=20140528072653

Why? Someone mentioned TWA/AAís SLI. My comment was pertenent to the discussion. Few things irritate me more then when someone tells me to ďlet it goĒ.

Iíll let it go IF and WHEN I feel like it. Perhaps Iíve already let it go. Either way.....thatís for me to decide. Not someone else.

Should I be telling you when to ďlet it goĒ when you have to euthanize your pet, or when you lost big money on a stock? Same situation with our fiasco of an SLI.

Caveman
10-10-2018, 02:26 AM
Why was AirTran for sale?

e6bpilot
10-10-2018, 04:55 AM
Why? Someone mentioned TWA/AAís SLI. My comment was pertenent to the discussion. Few things irritate me more then when someone tells me to ďlet it goĒ.



Iíll let it go IF and WHEN I feel like it. Perhaps Iíve already let it go. Either way.....thatís for me to decide. Not someone else.



Should I be telling you when to ďlet it goĒ when you have to euthanize your pet, or when you lost big money on a stock? Same situation with our fiasco of an SLI.



Yeah totally the same. Great comparison.

Peacock
10-11-2018, 12:03 PM
Why? Someone mentioned TWA/AAís SLI. My comment was pertenent to the discussion. Few things irritate me more then when someone tells me to ďlet it goĒ.

Iíll let it go IF and WHEN I feel like it. Perhaps Iíve already let it go. Either way.....thatís for me to decide. Not someone else.

Should I be telling you when to ďlet it goĒ when you have to euthanize your pet, or when you lost big money on a stock? Same situation with our fiasco of an SLI.

Let it go

....

saab2000
10-12-2018, 12:13 PM
To get back on topic, I'm curious how the delivery schedule for airplanes looks going forward. The last -800 has been delivered and from now on all new airplanes SWA accepts will me MAX variants. Of course, I am sure they look at the used market closely as well.

At any rate, growth equals quicker upgrade times. I was hired in February of 2017 and it's been steady at 10 years or so since then. The -300s are gone and I think the overall fleet is currently smaller than it was then. But that will change.

I have no numerical projection but I'm thinking upgrade will have to come down to under 10 years at some point assuming the newer airplanes are delivered more quickly than the earliest -700s are retired.

BLAHBLAHBLAH
10-12-2018, 01:22 PM
We have -700ís that are older than some of the -300ís we retired.

ZapBrannigan
10-12-2018, 01:31 PM
Eh. Call me a pessimist. We are almost 10,000 pilots. We are retiring less than 200 per year. 1000 pilots are waiting to upgrade (presumably until they can hold a line but who knows) That means for a new person to upgrade they either need about 4000 people to retire, or the seniority list to almost double.

We arenít going to continue hiring 600-900 pilots per year indefinitely. Eventually itíll drop when they reach the staffing theyíre looking for.

I think it will be 10 years or longer for the foreseeable future.


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RJSAviator76
10-12-2018, 01:53 PM
Zap, you sure? I thought it was 10 years to hold ATL as a plug FO and 20 years to upgrade... ;)

ZapBrannigan
10-12-2018, 02:45 PM
Nobody can be sure about anything. If you had told me 24 months ago that pilots with less than a year on property could hold ATL I never wouldíve believed it. I admit that I tend to be a little more glass half empty but we are talking about big numbers when you get to be a pilot group of this size.

That means an upgrade either requires big growth or big retirements. I donít see either on the horizon. And we donít have the training float that the other airlines need to carry to inflate the numbers (due to single fleet type)

Letís be honest with the folks that come here looking for info and not blow smoke. We are a young pilot group and just donít have the big retirement numbers that the other airlines do.

The late 2013 hires are still 1000 numbers from the most junior Captain, and that doesnít account for the fact that almost 1000 pilots have bypassed.


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Proximity
10-12-2018, 07:01 PM
That means an upgrade either requires big growth or big retirements. I don’t see either on the horizon.


The whole issue is that we really can't see into the future more then a couple years.

We know from the company financials that from 2019 thru 2026 (last year we have orders) there are 366 aircraft on order including options. Historically SWA has always taken options.

I did hear somewhere else that after a certain year we can expect 10 NG aircraft retirements per year. However, the retirements will be adjusted depending on demand, I would expect in a strong economy the older NGs will stick around. In a poor economy, the NGs will likely be retired faster then ten per year to be replaced by MAXs.

We know from the "Ask Gary Series" that there are approx 50 destinations, mostly near international that network planning is interested in.

Keep in mind that we are #1 in something like 22 airports we serve. So expect to see us leverage that advantage into expanding our near international network. Case in point, CUN. If I'm counting correctly I see 16 cities that we operate CUN flights from. I expect many of our current and new international destinations to go that way, greatly increasing ASMs and daily flight totals.

Domestically the company has indicated they don't really expect to add new cities, however, there is room to add connections in our current route structure.

To summarize the post so far, there is plenty to be optimistic about. SWA went through a very stagnant period, but for the foreseeable future we can expect some growth.

How does this all fit with upgrade times? Well if we take 366 aircraft by 2026, with our current ratio of 13 pilots per aircraft, we will need 4,758 additional pilots, bring the total to 14,300. Assuming upgrade stays at 60%, jr capt would be 8580. 1877 pilots to retire between now and end of 2026 puts the most jr pilot on the list today well under 60%. On top of that, while this pilot group is young compared to American, retirements will eventually start to pick up, between 2025 and 2039 there will be 300-400 retirements per year.

Sure my assessment might to optimistic, but consider this, if we retired 122 aircraft between now and 2026, the most junior pilot today would still be right at the 60% mark, making for an 8 year upgrade.

Those hired in beginning of the current bubble are in good shape. The last AT pilot sits about 850 under the most jr capt. Once we get through the 08-10 bubble upgrade will start to drop as there were very few hires 2011-2013. In fact hiring really didn't ramp up the current levels until 2016.

Another piece of the puzzle will be the ETOPS flying. After looking at the ETOPS presentation, I expect the ETOPS flying to go very junior. The combination of seatlocks, trips that will start as AM and go PM, and locations that are prohibitively expensive to live in likely means that upgrade to an EGB will sit 9-12 months more junior then a domestic bid group.

Even with the the current over staffing on the FO side, we haven't seen much change in jr capt seniority, suggesting that senior FO is such a good gig that even lack of OT won't move many of the 1000 bypassers to bid to the left seat. The EBG flying will likely go even more junior then 60% as those bases start to expand.

The next couple years will be very interesting. In 2019 it is clear the company will need finally start to equalize the balance between CA/FO, with more CA upgrades planned the FO hires at this time. Looking a few more years in the future, we might see some recruiting issues as upgrade at legacies on similar equipment drops way below what we will be able to offer even under the most optimistic scenario, coupled with the lack of fleet variety and no regional partners to draw from. Legacy airlines will likely face their own recruiting issues and may implement measures similar to what the regionals have done. Likely the lower part of the FO list will be eyeing the legacies as they did in pre 9/11 and pre contract 2016.

So overall I am optimistic. I was lucky enough to be hired near the beginning of the current bubble and chose to stay over other opportunities. I'm hoping I made the right choice, but I do expect some interesting times ahead.

at6d
10-13-2018, 09:28 AM
I was hired near the end of 2015.

According to myseniority.com , there are just over 1000 FOís senior to me that can hold captain.

I am just over 1600 numbers from the junior captain.

In the next five years, 887 pilots senior to me will retire.

An FO in my seniority (finishing 3rd year) can currently hold all domiciles, and at 50-60% seniority except MCO (75%) and ATL (85%).

PowerShift
10-13-2018, 09:40 AM
How many FOís will not upgrade? Age, comfy lifestyle, donít want to.

Proximity
10-13-2018, 10:49 AM
How many FOís will not upgrade? Age, comfy lifestyle, donít want to.


I had a theory that when open time for FO dried up, upgrade would go more senior. However, that did not occur, proving that senior FO is a really good gig.



The open time situation should improve for FOs next summer as upgrades catch up, and junior captain will likely be even less attractive if it means getting forced in an ETOPS bid group and being seat locked into non-commutable trips for 6 months.



So going forward I predict the percentage of bypassers to increase.

RJSAviator76
10-13-2018, 10:49 AM
Better question would be what percentage of FOís wonít upgrade right away.

How many east coast senior FOs would commute to LAX given what those trips will look like? All trips starting AMís turning into PMís, and then youíre locked in it for 6 months. Iím willing to bet OAK ETOPS is gonna be way more senior than LAX, so stands to reason that LAX will be quite a bit more junior than OAK.

Weíll see...

Cysco4120
10-13-2018, 03:40 PM
I thought I would throw my thoughts out there. They really donít mean anything just my perspective. I was hired June 2008 and could have held CA in OAK right at the 10 year mark. I believe 4 guys maybe 5 took the upgrade and the rest of my class myself included are bypassing. Here are a few reasons why.

Being hired in 2008 was painful the first 5 years. I had around 170 pilots below me the first two years. There was no movement at all. Depending on domicile some spent between 2 and 3 years on reserve. My point is that it is finally nice to have some seniority. Most do not want to give that up to commute to reserve in OAK. Many are waiting to be able to hold a line. Iím on 11th year pay and I think 12th year FO in 2020 when converted to hourly is around $193 hour. So just flying your Tues through Thurs line is a pretty good gig. And in MDW I can usually get a line with 2 or 3 trips commutable on both ends. Open time means nothing to me. I am so glad we are not where we were a couple years ago with constant extensions and JAís.

Iím still only around 25% in MDW and 15% in DEN after 10 years. Some of those senior FOís in MDW could hold pretty descent lines as CAís but are just in no hurry. Some have businesses on the side (I have a farm) and the flexibility seniority provides is hard to give up.

I do think LAX will be very junior in both seats. I donít see it being a commuter friendly base with hotel prices and I thought the union put something out saying only 150 pilots lived in the ďareaĒ.

Lance Captain is also something to figure in. Since you can fly unlimited CA trips for one year while bidding as an FO that can make it hard to figure. The funny thing there is that you can typically hold CA way before you can hold lance. In MDW junior lance was around #83000 and junior CA is around #89500.

I think it boils down to this. There will be a big difference between holding bottom CA on reserve or CA as a line holder especially in different bases. If you are willing to commute to reserve anywhere the number will keep coming down. But many will continue to pile in on top as there seniority gets better on the CA list. My plan is to wait until spring 2020 unless I could hold a line in DEN or MDW this coming year with the 600 upgrades. The other catch is I really donít want to go to training May through October because of the increased farm work. Many donít want to upgrade in the summer. That is why CA went so junior this summer and this time of year the awards are more senior.

Anyway sorry for the long winded babbling I just had some time and thought I would pass along my thoughts. In the end there is just no way to accurately predict the numbers. Way to many factors. Just enjoy all the hiring and the climb up the list.

ZapBrannigan
10-13-2018, 03:57 PM
Good article that discusses why some choose to delay upgrade.

https://airfactsjournal.com/2018/08/chasing-the-rabbit/


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Proximity
10-13-2018, 04:51 PM
I do think LAX will be very junior in both seats. I don’t see it being a commuter friendly base with hotel prices and I thought the union put something out saying only 150 pilots lived in the “area”.


I've heard that about 90 CAs and 40 FOs have bid LAX as their first choice in CWA. No doubt that LAX will cause enough movement that some of those FOs will be able to hold CA pretty quickly. I'm expecting LAX to be super junior, especially on the FO side, very quickly.

e6bpilot
10-13-2018, 06:10 PM
Upgrade time is going to come down in my opinion. The bypass percentage is going to only go up with the etops bid group being in the two junior bases. That and a 5 year hiring slump that is just getting ready to hit the upgrade point means it should trend down pretty significantly.
Zap is right, though, about a couple of things.
One, hiring has been at a breakneck pace while everyone else has slowed down. At some point, we will slow down too.
Two, the early NG retirements are going to happen. Management can use that to keep aircraft count (and capacity) relatively flat. In fact, for every 700 they retire, CASM goes down since all the new deliveries minus the few max 7s are all 175 seat planes.
Three, the economy is showing cracks. We will hit a slowdown at some point.

Salukidawg
10-14-2018, 08:16 PM
Some of the reasons have already been discussed, but always remember, just like the quick upgrade to Captain at DL if youíre willing to bid NYC, there is a reason over 1,000 FOís are bypassing upgrade here. Yes, you may be able to hold Captain in under 10 years, the question you have to ask yourself is, do you really want to if it means commuting to sit Reserve in LA.

saab2000
10-15-2018, 03:31 AM
Some of the reasons have already been discussed, but always remember, just like the quick upgrade to Captain at DL if youíre willing to bid NYC, there is a reason over 1,000 FOís are bypassing upgrade here. Yes, you may be able to hold Captain in under 10 years, the question you have to ask yourself is, do you really want to if it means commuting to sit Reserve in LA.

I'd move there. I'm considering moving to CA anyway. I have a couple friends who moved there for UA and AS and I don't think they're unhappy with their decision in the least.

I can sell my house in August, 2019 (tax reasons) and then I will seriously consider packing up and moving to CA. I like it a lot when I'm out there.

Proximity
10-15-2018, 06:47 AM
Some of the reasons have already been discussed, but always remember, just like the quick upgrade to Captain at DL if youíre willing to bid NYC, there is a reason over 1,000 FOís are bypassing upgrade here.


What's upgrade on 737/320 at Delta, at a base like DTW/MSP/ATL/SLC? I'm guessing that's faster then the upgrade to an equivalent base at SWA today, if not very soon.


This is why times are going to be interesting going forward. If you are choosing between SWA and DL what does SWA offer? DL will have the faster upgrade, more pay, better LTD/retirement, and more WB flying. They also have regional partners to draw pilots from. Will SWA get the 2nd/3rd tier applicants?


I heard pilot getting CJOs today are being told class-dates six months out. That's lot of time to interview somewhere else while waiting.

TheBlueBaron
10-15-2018, 06:54 AM
I'd move there. I'm considering moving to CA anyway. I have a couple friends who moved there for UA and AS and I don't think they're unhappy with their decision in the least.

I can sell my house in August, 2019 (tax reasons) and then I will seriously consider packing up and moving to CA. I like it a lot when I'm out there.

3947

fillleerrr

ROFF
10-15-2018, 07:08 AM
I can sell my house in August, 2019 (tax reasons) and then I will seriously consider packing up and moving to CA. I like it a lot when I'm out there.

Lots of good places close and convenient to the airport.

I would strongly consider Manhattan Beach or Palos Verdes to start.

CA1900
10-15-2018, 07:12 AM
If you are choosing between SWA and DL what does SWA offer? DL will have the faster upgrade, more pay, better LTD/retirement, and more WB flying. They also have regional partners to draw pilots from.

One thing SWA offers? No cheaper "regional partners" to outsource flying. That's a huge plus in my eyes. I'm reminded of it every time I go into SJC and see a a string of "Alaska" Embraers instead of 737s.

SlipKid
10-15-2018, 08:27 AM
One thing SWA offers? No cheaper "regional partners" to outsource flying. That's a huge plus in my eyes. I'm reminded of it every time I go into SJC and see a a string of "Alaska" Embraers instead of 737s.

Not to mention that you can work an extra week every month and make 150tfp easily! ;)

at6d
10-15-2018, 08:37 AM
If you are choosing between SWA and DL what does SWA offer? DL will have the faster upgrade, more pay, better LTD/retirement, and more WB flying. They also have regional partners to draw pilots from. Will SWA get the 2nd/3rd tier applicants?


I heard pilot getting CJOs today are being told class-dates six months out. That's lot of time to interview somewhere else while waiting.

SWA offers domiciles all over the country that junior pilots can hold fairly quickly (except ATL and MCO).

Schedule flexibility including reserve line holders can trade for trips, inter-domicile trading and trip pickup, and no PBS.

Low company debt and history of financial success for the last 40+ years.

Relative stability.

No farmed-out regional flying. Donít worry, we can hire the pilots from Delta regionals, too.

AM and PM options.

Three on, four off schedules.

Free health care plan option.

New aircraft deliveries.

Domination in the US domestic market.

These are some things I consider.

When you compare pay, what are you using to compare?

Smooth at FL450
10-15-2018, 09:30 AM
This is why times are going to be interesting going forward. If you are choosing between SWA and DL what does SWA offer? DL will have the faster upgrade, more pay, better LTD/retirement, and more WB flying. They also have regional partners to draw pilots from. Will SWA get the 2nd/3rd tier applicants?


I heard pilot getting CJOs today are being told class-dates six months out. That's lot of time to interview somewhere else while waiting.

....WBs that somebody hired today will never see the left seat in

We hire from delta’s regional feed all the time.

CJOs for classes 6 months out are because training scheduling needs room in the schedule for etops training and 400+ upgrades in the first 6 months of the year. Would you rather they keep piling on the FOs and forego the rest of the puzzle? United puts guys in the pool for over a year. 6 months isn’t a bad thing, all things considered. And everyone else has slowed down their hiring too

OhSnapAF
10-15-2018, 10:02 AM
Assume itís going to be 10+ years and if itís less, itís a bonus.

hoover
10-15-2018, 10:04 AM
Had a delta JS On my flight the other day. Took him 17 yrs to upgrade on the 737 in LAX. He said if he went to FO 777 he'd be 30 from the bottom and can't even come close to CPT on the 777.
So yeah you can upgrade on the 717 or md90 fairly quick in NYC the good flying schedules or higher paying seats take quite a while.
I don't think they offer any better QOL than us other than looking at block hrs flown but then throw in the 2-3 hr sits in between legs of you want less block.
I think a significant amount of their wide body fling is code shared out as well. So not much growth on that side to keep bodies moving into those preference seats.
Their LTD blows ours away tho

saab2000
10-15-2018, 01:41 PM
Lots of good places close and convenient to the airport.

I would strongly consider Manhattan Beach or Palos Verdes to start.

I’m thinking Malibu, Pacific Palisades or Beverly Hills.

Assume it’s going to be 10+ years and if it’s less, it’s a bonus.

This is sage advice.

Proximity
10-15-2018, 03:38 PM
SWA offers domiciles all over the country that junior pilots can hold fairly quickly (except ATL and MCO).
I think you need to consider which domicile you want. If you want to live in DEN or PHX, Southwest is for you. Denver is really senior at UA and AA is pulling back in PHX, for example. However, if you're in say Florida, NY, Boston, or Seattle, Southwest is a tougher sell.
Schedule flexibility including reserve line holders can trade for trips, inter-domicile trading and trip pickup, and no PBS.Agree, however schedule flexibility is artificially high right now due to FO over-staffing.
Low company debt and history of financial success for the last 40+ years.

Relative stability.Agreed.
No farmed-out regional flying. Don’t worry, we can hire the pilots from Delta regionals, too.Regional flying probably screwed up your career as much as it did mine, but it's pretty much as big as it will get. I don't see a legacy pilot group allowing scope to be relaxed further.

Right now we can hire from legacy partners, but they can take further measures to encourage their pilots to stick around. They'll pay the least they can get away with, which is 2-3x what it was ten years ago. They can pay more or increase the incentivize to move to mainline, thus reducing the supply of pilots available to SWA.


Many other airlines have initiated programs to make sure they will have pilots in the future, but so far we haven't. I'd be interested in why that is.

AM and PM options.Not unique to us.


Three on, four off schedules.Exists, but tough to hold. Looking at my domicile for Nov, only 32% of the lines are 3/4. Want to weekends off...only 11% of the lines are 3/4 and weekdays.


Free health care plan option.True but should be looked at together with total compensation.


New aircraft deliveries.Many airplanes on order at the legacies also.

Domination in the US domestic market.Agreed.

When you compare pay, what are you using to compare?I know people hired around the same time as me at most places other then AA. I actually do a little better then my UA and DL peers, but as upgrade rapidly falls at both places and I remain an NB FO for many more years I'm guessing they will pull ahead as NB CAs or WB FOs. However, part of me doing better is because I average 125tfp per month and spend plenty of time manipulating my schedule. Our trips are more efficient but more work. I try to avoid doing to many trips that pay well in a row because they are just too tiring. We don't do redeyes and hopefully when we start doing them here I can avoid them.

The pilot I know that went to Fedex is ahead of me any probably always will unless there is most disaster with their pension. Hub turns aren't for everyone, but they do pay well.

If you haven't noticed from my previous posts I'm pretty happy to be working here and stayed here by choice. However, based on our efficiency, the profitability of the company, and that we have no WB flying we should be the highest paid NB pilots among our peers. When you make this comparison it should be at our contractually guaranteed TFP, not the 108/month TFP SWAPA uses for comparison.

Ihateusernames
10-15-2018, 04:16 PM
Fwiw I have 459 FO senior to me that can hold Captain and I have been a captain for over a year and a half. I was told when I was in Dallas year or so ago the company wanted 12,000 pilots in a 5 year period. That adds up to what they have been doing hiring wise. They have to have a plan or QOL will go up while quality of paycheck will go down.


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ZapBrannigan
10-15-2018, 05:22 PM
Say what you will about staffing, but I havenít been JAd once in 2018 and Iím pretty darned happy about that!




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Proximity
10-15-2018, 05:43 PM
Say what you will about staffing, but I havenít been JAd once in 2018 and Iím pretty darned happy about that!


There has to be a happy medium between being JA'd every other trip and OT trips valued below rig being bid straight....

Grumpyaviator
10-15-2018, 05:53 PM
SWA offers domiciles all over the country that junior pilots can hold fairly quickly (except ATL and MCO).

Schedule flexibility including reserve line holders can trade for trips, inter-domicile trading and trip pickup, and no PBS.

Low company debt and history of financial success for the last 40+ years.

Relative stability.

No farmed-out regional flying. Donít worry, we can hire the pilots from Delta regionals, too.

AM and PM options.

Three on, four off schedules.

Free health care plan option.

New aircraft deliveries.

Domination in the US domestic market.

These are some things I consider.

When you compare pay, what are you using to compare?

I agree with all that and itís awesome, but:

No long call, turns 15 days off into 11 for a commuter
Almost no commutable trips, eating into days off

Preemptive answer: Iím not in a situation to move to domicile.

ZapBrannigan
10-15-2018, 05:53 PM
The problem was that JA didnít have anything to do with being the juniormost available pilot anymore. Instead it meant ďjust availableĒ. The only recourse was putting the assignment in giveaway - but since CWA didnít reflect the JA pay, it was hard to solicit bidders.

All they had to do was two things:
1. Get CWA to accurately reflect the pay
2. Make it so a pilot could choose to automatically put any extensions/JAs in giveaway and send out text alerts the moment they are assigned.

Iím convinced that would prevent the majority of unwanted extensions/JAs

There is a market for that flying, but bidders need to know about it.


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RJSAviator76
10-15-2018, 06:16 PM
I agree with all that and itís awesome, but:



No long call, turns 15 days off into 11 for a commuter

Almost no commutable trips, eating into days off



Preemptive answer: Iím not in a situation to move to domicile.


I donít know if youíre on the property, but if you arenít... unlike at most airlines, here you can trade your reserve blocks with line holders or put them in giveaway. If someone picks them up, and nowadays they do get picked up or traded with line holders who arenít commuters, you can then make up the difference at any domicile or any day of the month as if you were a line holder.

Proximity
10-15-2018, 08:04 PM
There is a market for that flying, but bidders need to know about it.


Agreed, and everything you suggest is basically free (swa IT issues not withstanding).



Also VPF should just pay 2x and all OT trips should be rigged.

Opakapaka
10-15-2018, 10:07 PM
Are we gonna talk about age 67 yet?????

flensr
10-15-2018, 10:53 PM
Lots of good places close and convenient to the airport.

I would strongly consider Manhattan Beach or Palos Verdes to start.

Plan on 5 minutes per mile, commute time, when living anywhere near Pacific Coast Hwy. Palos Verdes to LAX can be well over 1 hr drive time for half the day. I live about 8 miles from LAX and at midnight it takes 18 min to get to terminal 1. During various times of the day it can take over an hour for that same 8 miles, even with a dropoff at the hyatt and walking the last 1/4 mile.

ZapBrannigan
10-16-2018, 02:06 AM
Are we gonna talk about age 67 yet?????


Let me allow Mr. Hat to speak for me on this topic.

https://youtu.be/VWqbqEHt03M



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NorskAir
10-16-2018, 08:57 AM
I agree with all that and itís awesome, but:

No long call, turns 15 days off into 11 for a commuter
Almost no commutable trips, eating into days off

Preemptive answer: Iím not in a situation to move to domicile.

Bid PM reserve, commutable on both sides to most places.

I have only flown PM commutable trips since May, there are plenty of them.

WhaleSurfing
10-16-2018, 10:16 AM
Manhattan Beach, Palos Verdes, Pacific Palisades, Malibu, Beverly Hills?

What are you smoking? No problem if you're planning on 300 TFPs a month or plan on living in someone's garage.

RJSAviator76
10-16-2018, 10:24 AM
Manhattan Beach, Palos Verdes, Pacific Palisades, Malibu, Beverly Hills?



What are you smoking? No problem if you're planning on 300 TFPs a month or plan on living in someone's garage.



Maybe his/her spouse is the primary breadwinner in their house.

Maybe they have a 1500 square foot home in the Bay Area or Hawaii thatís been paid off for generations.

As a former California family, we donít care for those tax rates, nor do we care for their politics, nor do we see that the climate in SoCal is worth the overinflated price of real estate. But to each their own....

saab2000
10-16-2018, 11:32 AM
Manhattan Beach, Palos Verdes, Pacific Palisades, Malibu, Beverly Hills?

What are you smoking? No problem if you're planning on 300 TFPs a month or plan on living in someone's garage.

I'm being facetious. No, I'm not likely to live in Malibu or Beverly Hills!

But what I am is single, rounding third base in my career and already fairly financially secure. I love the climate there. I probably can live with the politics because I create my own happiness and don't rely upon politicians to create it for me. I don't agree with the politics in the state where I currently live but it doesn't destroy me. I'm going to be 52 in February and this life experience I've had, which has been amazingly rich, allows me to ignore the noise of the politicians and news channels and personalities who stir it up. Besides, maybe I'm OK with some California politics..... :rolleyes:

I've got thirteen years to go if I make it to the current age limit. I'd like to upgrade here before I retire. In a couple short months I'll be on property for two years and on third year pay. I am still in shock to be here and feel incredibly fortunate to say I work for Southwest.

The only thing that is a concern is the overall cost of living. Yes, it's stupid expensive. But I also know people who make it work financially and they're in the same industry we are, sitting on the right seat at a major airline and I think I can do the same. It will require some downsizing, but as a single person, I can do that fairly easily. Less is more and a small condo might be the best option.

We are lucky to live in a nation with so much choice and variety and we are fortunate to work for a company with domiciles all over the country. I don't know that I'll end up in California but it's something I'd consider based on my experiences there and the friends I have who rave about it. The other place I wouldn't mind landing is DAL. Never travel for training again and bid sim seat support open time.... $$$ Plus, Dallas is a nice place and I really like everywhere I've been in Texas since I started at SWA. It's good to have options.

WhaleSurfing
10-16-2018, 03:48 PM
Maybe his/her spouse is the primary breadwinner in their house.

Maybe they have a 1500 square foot home in the Bay Area or Hawaii thatís been paid off for generations.

As a former California family, we donít care for those tax rates, nor do we care for their politics, nor do we see that the climate in SoCal is worth the overinflated price of real estate. But to each their own....

I'm a late 50's something California native so I think I know what I'm talking about. The OP didn't sound like he's already in Cali.

Squallrider
10-17-2018, 10:12 AM
Latest number passed down recently is 750 new hires a year indefinitely. I donít get it since we max retirements at 250 or so a year so it must be significant growth. Of course all numbers are subject to change but thatís what was said presently.

WHACKMASTER
10-17-2018, 10:20 AM
Latest number passed down recently is 750 new hires a year indefinitely. I donít get it since we max retirements at 250 or so a year so it must be significant growth. Of course all numbers are subject to change but thatís what was said presently.

I also donít get why theyíre upgrading 600ish next year. I know that FOs are in far worse shape but open time, premium, etc. is DRY on the Cptnís side. I canít imagine how slim the pickings are gonna be after all the upgrades.

I truly donít understand where theyíre going with all of this hiring and upgrades next year. Not complaining but I am scratching my head.

ZapBrannigan
10-17-2018, 11:22 AM
My opinion (which isnít worth a thing) is that they have made the decision to shut down the premium marketplace, and train the pilot group to seek out straight time if we want to pad our month.

They tested it with the FOs and if the lack of available flying in TTGA is any indication they were successful.

Is it possible they have just decided to staff like every other airline?


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Stitches
10-17-2018, 11:35 AM
I truly donít understand where theyíre going with all of this hiring and upgrades next year. Not complaining but I am scratching my head.

A couple things come to mind. The first is a mind shift in how reserves are used. The company has finally come around to the way of thinking where they donít burn ALL the reserves a day prior and resort to massive reroutes and JAís to solve each inevitable crisis during the busy periods. Theyíve increased manning accordingly.

Another issue is our training requirements have almost doubled from the past few years and we havenít even started etops training yet. Several pilots I fly with have mentioned that they cut back their flying with the latest contract. Also, the company can see future bookings so they have an early look at demand.

I donít think itís 1 big thing but several smaller factors combined. With a 9500 pilot group even small percentage increases can add up to big hiring numbers.

Smokey23
10-17-2018, 11:46 AM
My opinion (which isnít worth a thing) is that they have made the decision to shut down the premium marketplace, and train the pilot group to seek out straight time if we want to pad our month.

They tested it with the FOs and if the lack of available flying in TTGA is any indication they were successful.

Is it possible they have just decided to staff like every other airline?


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You may be right, but that would seem to shake up decades of conventional wisdom about labor costs at this airline (i.e., cheaper to run lean staffing & pay premium, then to staff 'adequately'). All I ever hear about from the ground ops side of the operation, is how expensive it is to bring in & train one more ramper (so we're okay with letting you guys hold out another 15 min at MDW, BWI, or LAS waiting for a marshaller :rolleyes:). You'd think it would add another cost order of magnitude beyond a ramper to bring on another pilot, but who knows anymore? Every fiefdom at this airline is solely focused on making their 'numbers' regardless of how it affects the overall operation or bottom line. A casualty of our size & efforts to continually Redefine Excellence, I suppose... :mad:

Burton78
10-17-2018, 11:55 AM
My opinion (which isnít worth a thing) is that they have made the decision to shut down the premium marketplace, and train the pilot group to seek out straight time if we want to pad our month.

They tested it with the FOs and if the lack of available flying in TTGA is any indication they were successful.

Is it possible they have just decided to staff like every other airline?


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I tend to agree. I consistently have trips in TTGA picked up that I would never have imagined been taken this time last year. This same theory of eliminating premium was brought up 6 or so months ago, and I disregarded it because I was still flying premium with relative ease. Now I feel that I stand corrected as the premium well is increasingly dry with excessive reserves and first year FOs constantly bidding straight.

In the same breath, part of me still feels this may be temporary as I can't imagine hiring extra pilots to stamp out a little premium flying is cost beneficial to the company. Im anxiously waiting and hoping to see if the LAX base opening accompanied with Hawaii flying will return staffing and in turn, premium flying back to normalcy.

BTW, does anyone have the projected fleet numbers for the next few years?

hoover
10-17-2018, 12:06 PM
Didn't the union put out in a RP this summer that paying for all the open time trips as premium first would only cost the company 4 more crews worth of pay.
That's nothing. I don't think it has anything to do with getting rid of premium . That's just a consequence of what their planning 5 yrs down the road . I don't know what that is but they have 5, 10 and 20 yr plans. We could just be in a phase of one of those plans

e6bpilot
10-17-2018, 12:53 PM
I also donít get why theyíre upgrading 600ish next year. I know that FOs are in far worse shape but open time, premium, etc. is DRY on the Cptnís side. I canít imagine how slim the pickings are gonna be after all the upgrades.



I truly donít understand where theyíre going with all of this hiring and upgrades next year. Not complaining but I am scratching my head.



Open time is dry on the captain side because of two things.
1. Itís October.
2. Captain open time behavior is way different than FOs. They bid straight earlier and there are a lot more captains who are in the 150+ a month club. Someone told me PHX CA elitt net zero is +25 and MCO is +10. Thatís unheard of on the FO side.

The balance of the force is way out of whack (pun intended) right now. We are way over staffed on FOs. Take a look at the weekend reserve call out lists and you will see it.

e6bpilot
10-17-2018, 12:59 PM
I agree that this is part of the sine wave of hiring. Hiring pilots has always been a long lead time proposition.

When you need a captain to do flight x, you have to consider interviewing 2 FOs, hiring them, training them through IOE, then upgrading one FO through UOE. That process takes a while. Throw in a delay for ETOPS certification and you see where this is going.

October, January, and February magnify overmanning just like June-August do for undermanning.

This too shall pass, hopefully soon!

Peacock
10-17-2018, 01:53 PM
The good news is for FOís in base on reserve. So far this month Iíve had nine days of reserve and flew one easy two day. I have to go back over a month for my last flight before that. Last month I flew one three day, and a sim since Iím in Dallas.

Iím too junior to get premium anyway, so if I want high tfp, I just bid straight on occasional easy trips on my off days. Itís not hard at all to get 120-140 tfp only actually flying 6-10 days. A couple months ago I did 138tfp on eight days of flying, only three nights away.

Squallrider
10-17-2018, 02:07 PM
The good news is for FOís in base on reserve. So far this month Iíve had nine days of reserve and flew one easy two day. I have to go back over a month for my last flight before that. Last month I flew one three day, and a sim since Iím in Dallas.

Iím too junior to get premium anyway, so if I want high tfp, I just bid straight on occasional easy trips on my off days. Itís not hard at all to get 120-140 tfp only actually flying 6-10 days. A couple months ago I did 138tfp on eight days of flying, only three nights away.

Depends on base, Iíve flown every week for the last 3. Before that I had two weeks off. Mdw.

Peacock
10-17-2018, 02:14 PM
Iím sure it does. I got forced into a Weds-Fri AM line next month because of Thanksgiving.

Once I got senior enough to bid weekday or mostly weekday PM reserve, there was no going back.

WHACKMASTER
10-17-2018, 03:02 PM
Open time is dry on the captain side because of two things.
1. Itís October.
2. Captain open time behavior is way different than FOs. They bid straight earlier and there are a lot more captains who are in the 150+ a month club. Someone told me PHX CA elitt net zero is +25 and MCO is +10. Thatís unheard of on the FO side.

The balance of the force is way out of whack (pun intended) right now. We are way over staffed on FOs. Take a look at the weekend reserve call out lists and you will see it.

I donít disagree with any of that but the trip quality has also gone to $7it. Iíve never seen TTGA filled with so many unproductive trips.

e6bpilot
10-17-2018, 03:31 PM
I donít disagree with any of that but the trip quality has also gone to $7it. Iíve never seen TTGA filled with so many unproductive trips.



Yep. Agreed. It sucks for everyone.

RJSAviator76
10-17-2018, 03:41 PM
I donít disagree with any of that but the trip quality has also gone to $7it. Iíve never seen TTGA filled with so many unproductive trips.



TTGA has something in it?

Proximity
10-17-2018, 06:42 PM
Another issue is our training requirements have almost doubled from the past few years and we haven’t even started etops training yet. Several pilots I fly with have mentioned that they cut back their flying with the latest contract. Also, the company can see future bookings so they have an early look at demand.

I'm hoping this is it. I don't think the company intends to kill the premium marketplace, if so they'd upgrade more and kill premium on the captain side also. I think they looked at their training capacity and their upcoming requirements and figured they'd better get people onboard.

Next year we get 30 airplanes, which accounts for 400 pilots. Approx 110 retirements, plus early outs. Recurrent training will be a day longer next year, plus some pilots will go to ETOPS training. Many FOs hired in the bubble ten years ago get an extra vacation week this year. Also after the classic retirements the company put on all the shoulder flying and found they could still fill airplanes. The shoulder flying makes money but makes the aircraft day too long to cover with 2 crews. We might even see red eye flying to connect HI paxs to east coast destinations.

Hopefully all these factors will mean the open time market will return to normal by next summer. If not, reserve gonna go real senior...

flensr
10-17-2018, 07:37 PM
Latest number passed down recently is 750 new hires a year indefinitely. I donít get it since we max retirements at 250 or so a year so it must be significant growth. Of course all numbers are subject to change but thatís what was said presently.

My worthless bet is that SWA is hedging pilots against the "shortage".

Yea. That's a thing now.

WHACKMASTER
10-17-2018, 07:58 PM
I'm hoping this is it. I don't think the company intends to kill the premium marketplace, if so they'd upgrade more and kill premium on the captain side also.

Premium on the Cptnís side is pretty much killed. Perhaps not to the extent as on the FOís side, but....

Hell, even give away is filled with junk trips. I know itís a slow time of the year but it hasnít been like this before.

Now theyíre gonna upgrade 400 in the first six months of 2019 and 600 total?! At least itíll make the shortage of premium and decent trips in give away better for FOs.

I stand by what I wrote....I just donít get it.

ZapBrannigan
10-18-2018, 03:24 AM
Disregard. I originally said we should ask a chief pilot or SWAPA, but I doubt they have any more info than we do.

e6bpilot
10-18-2018, 06:02 AM
No, the giant glowing crystal ball of SWA pilot hiring is a mystery wrapped in an enigma. I seriously donít think anyone has the big picture. Itís like a war plan that they only give a piece of to each person so that when Delta or Spirit captures and waterboards you with a giant bottle of Dasani and a tiny napkin, you wonít divulge all the info.
Their secret is safe (from everyone).

e6bpilot
10-18-2018, 07:19 AM
After 0900 DOT awards for tomorrow:
FOs: zero (3 trips still not awarded may go premium or get split and exported)
CA: 29 premium open time awards

Thatís just daily open time.

You can see the disparity here. Scheduling isnít trying to kill the premium open time market, as it is alive and well on the captain side. They are stockpiling bodies on the FO side for eventual upgrade.
Still around 15 unused FO AM reserves in Dallas. I didnít bother to look at the other bases.

SlipKid
10-18-2018, 09:16 AM
Premium on the Cptn’s side is pretty much killed. Perhaps not to the extent as on the FO’s side, but....

Hell, even give away is filled with junk trips. I know it’s a slow time of the year but it hasn’t been like this before.

Now they’re gonna upgrade 400 in the first six months of 2019 and 600 total?! At least it’ll make the shortage of premium and decent trips in give away better for FOs.

I stand by what I wrote....I just don’t get it.

Premium on the Capt side in MCO has been dead this entire year. All summer long, senior folks were bidding straight on trash. To top it off, there are far fewer trips in ELITT than we've historically had, making it much harder to move stuff around. ELITT is like groundhog day. Same few trips in there all month long, and it's been going on for months now.

Ironically, folks still don't pick up stuff in giveaway or trade too often. There are 5 trips and a reserve block in MCO Oct. Capt TTGA as I type this, and no takers. The only trips that get picked up these days are weekday turns, and even they sit on the board for much longer than they used to.

I couldn't even trade a TWT for a weekend trip this month. :eek:

I need to be a lot more careful about bidding and ELITTing, since I've been pretty much stuck with what I've got these days, in spite of every effort (TTGA, ELITT etc.) to change it around.

It's a foreshadowing of what life will be like under PBS (not to mention vacation bidding, if we ever end up enacting the concessionary system that the minority voted for). ;)

I've never seen it like this, and I don't see it getting better unless there is something like a new airframe on the near horizon.

Get used to 87 tfp, 13-14 day months folks, heck, I already have.

SlipKid
10-18-2018, 09:37 AM
After 0900 DOT awards for tomorrow:
FOs: zero (3 trips still not awarded may go premium or get split and exported)
CA: 29 premium open time awards

Thatís just daily open time.

You can see the disparity here. Scheduling isnít trying to kill the premium open time market, as it is alive and well on the captain side. They are stockpiling bodies on the FO side for eventual upgrade.
Still around 15 unused FO AM reserves in Dallas. I didnít bother to look at the other bases.

Damn, that is definitely not the case in MCO, and hasn't been for most of this year. We had a -14 DTC on one of the days over labor day weekend, and only a few trips went premium, all senior to me. The rest went straight or reserve. Same thing the first week of August.

emoss1974
10-18-2018, 10:45 AM
Good to know.


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at6d
10-18-2018, 10:50 AM
Hell we have 74000 number guys bidding open time at straight pay in PHX. Iíve bid nearly 80 premium trips so far this year with zero results. Just saying.

SlipKid
10-18-2018, 10:55 AM
Hell we have 74000 number guys bidding open time at straight pay in PHX. Iíve bid nearly 80 premium trips so far this year with zero results. Just saying.

I have no clue how many I've bid on, but it's a lot. I have gotten exactly 2 premium trips in 2018. :eek:

Caveman
10-18-2018, 11:40 AM
Manning as an item is a big yaaaawwwwn to this group, and subsequently the groups representation as well.

Best to focus on flag ties, mini bases, paid parking, upgrade math, the vacation vote and the really important stuff.

For those pining for the miracle 787 around the corner rumor as the answer...The training center expansion is for ab-inito, not another airframe or acquisition.

I'm hopeful that once some tough qol & schedule flexibility issues are faced as the new reality for the foreseeable future, the sentiment regarding addressing manning and how it greatly affects the job here will change.

Until then, 1/2 a muffin shared by a dozen will have to do.

Peacock
10-18-2018, 12:40 PM
Manning as an item is a big yaaaawwwwn to this group, and subsequently the groups representation as well.

Best to focus on flag ties, mini bases, paid parking, upgrade math, the vacation vote and the really important stuff.

For those pining for the miracle 787 around the corner rumor as the answer...The training center expansion is for ab-inito, not another airframe or acquisition.

I'm hopeful that once some tough qol & schedule flexibility issues are faced as the new reality for the foreseeable future, the sentiment regarding addressing manning and how it greatly affects the job here will change.

Until then, 1/2 a muffin shared by a dozen will have to do.

Why would they need a ton of sims for ab initio? It seems like a contracted flight school would make a lot more sense.

e6bpilot
10-18-2018, 01:12 PM
Agree, the sims would not be for ab initio. That would not be something handled in house.

I do agree that manning is a big issue. It has crushed my pain per dollar earned ratio these past couple of months. In the summer I managed to eek out a pretty good schedule using open time, but it was way harder than last year and almost entirely soul crushing AM trips.

I am flying less these days than I used to, mainly due to getting the raise to fifth year pay, but I still have a kid in college and a family to maintain, and to be quite honest I donít like going to work all that much.

This too shall pass, however. Looks like it is going to get pushed through to the captain seat fairly soon and I bet by Summer we will be approaching a fairly normal manning level in the right seat.

The open time market has always been seasonal and base specific. PHX and MCO have always been a little more on the senior/desperate side when it comes to open time, especially for captains. A lot of straight bidding at below min rig levels goes on, even during peak season.

SimMonkey
10-18-2018, 05:26 PM
I have no clue how many I've bid on, but it's a lot. I have gotten exactly 2 premium trips in 2018. :eek:

Pretty much nonexistent this year. It was an eye opener and making me rethink how I bid my schedule.

OhSnapAF
10-18-2018, 06:36 PM
I have no clue how many I've bid on, but it's a lot. I have gotten exactly 2 premium trips in 2018. :eek:

Lucky, I got one lol...

flensr
10-18-2018, 08:57 PM
I think the existing sims can probably be used for the 787 since our 787 buy will be custom orders using the NG cockpit as a template for layout and switch positions. Save on training that way, plus buttons wear out while the switches last the life of the aircraft so we'll get all the buttons replaced with switches. So a 3 can be turned into an 8 with just a little paint and a software patch. Maybe a rubber chicken.

RJSAviator76
10-18-2018, 09:01 PM
I think the existing sims can probably be used for the 787 since our 787 buy will be custom orders using the NG cockpit as a template for layout and switch positions. Save on training that way, plus buttons wear out while the switches last the life of the aircraft so we'll get all the buttons replaced with switches. So a 3 can be turned into an 8 with just a little paint and a software patch. Maybe a rubber chicken.



And itíll be flown like a 200...

Skyward
10-19-2018, 07:46 AM
Word is the 797 will be a common type with the 73. Kind of like 75/76

WHACKMASTER
10-19-2018, 08:45 AM
Word is the 797 will be a common type with the 73. Kind of like 75/76

Hahaha. Now where did you here that? I strongly believe weíll eventually get the 797 but not that itíll be a common type.

RJSAviator76
10-19-2018, 08:54 AM
Hahaha. Now where did you here that? I strongly believe weíll eventually get the 797 but not that itíll be a common type.


Who cares as long as we can fly it like a 200, set zeros, and wait until 3000 feet to use VNAV... [emoji12]

ZapBrannigan
10-19-2018, 08:55 AM
Hahaha. Now where did you here that? I strongly believe weíll eventually get the 797 but not that itíll be a common type.


He is joking but nothing would surprise me.


Sent from my iPad using Tapatalk

SlipKid
10-19-2018, 10:50 AM
The open time market has always been seasonal and base specific. PHX and MCO have always been a little more on the senior/desperate side when it comes to open time, especially for captains. A lot of straight bidding at below min rig levels goes on, even during peak season.

It has never been consistently this bleak in MCO. Ever. :eek:

symbian simian
10-20-2018, 01:45 PM
Hahaha. Now where did you here that? I strongly believe weíll eventually get the 797 but not that itíll be a common type.

I think he hered it hear..

Flitestar
10-20-2018, 07:53 PM
Post of the month right there ^^^

My eye balls are still hurting...

WHACKMASTER
10-21-2018, 08:01 AM
I think he hered it hear..

Lmao. Touchť!

Spookywatcher
10-22-2018, 06:10 AM
It has never been consistently this bleak in MCO. Ever. :eek:

SWOTAXXXXXX/DOT/1700/FO/XXXX-21/3DAY/15.70TFP/20.33TFP/1030BLK/1300RPT/1635RLS/LAX-SMF.

SWOTAXXXXXX/SNOTS1153/FO/XXXX-20/3DAY/15.25TFP/1300BLK/1425RPT/1510RLS/SJC-LAX.

This is the kind of absolute garbage I'm seeing in open time.

A 3 Day premium that only pays 20 Trips!?
Or a 3 Day SNOTS that only pays 15 Trips?
Neither one with DH's

It's this kind of boned up open time that I see and swipe left. And it's all the time now.

SpookyWatcher

SlipKid
10-22-2018, 06:16 AM
SWOTAXXXXXX/DOT/1700/FO/XXXX-21/3DAY/15.70TFP/20.33TFP/1030BLK/1300RPT/1635RLS/LAX-SMF.

SWOTAXXXXXX/SNOTS1153/FO/XXXX-20/3DAY/15.25TFP/1300BLK/1425RPT/1510RLS/SJC-LAX.

This is the kind of absolute garbage I'm seeing in open time.

A 3 Day premium that only pays 20 Trips!?
Or a 3 Day SNOTS that only pays 15 Trips?
Neither one with DH's

It's this kind of boned up open time that I see and swipe left. And it's all the time now.

SpookyWatcher

No worries. All you have to do is work a "few" extra days to make up for it! :cool:

Right ? ;)

tacamoflyer
10-22-2018, 06:20 AM
If you are ever bored in your hotel room, take a look at some of the absolute crap that gets bids on both sides of the cockpit. I have seen noncommutable two days with long overnights and no deadheads that pay 10 get gobbled up. Overmanning breeds desperation. I would be kicking myself for two straight days if I were flying a trip like that.
I get bidding on stuff that you can fly from your commuter city or that somehow turns into a good deal if it is combined with another trip, but come on!

SlipKid
10-22-2018, 06:53 AM
If you are ever bored in your hotel room, take a look at some of the absolute crap that gets bids on both sides of the cockpit. I have seen noncommutable two days with long overnights and no deadheads that pay 10 get gobbled up. Overmanning breeds desperation. I would be kicking myself for two straight days if I were flying a trip like that.
I get bidding on stuff that you can fly from your commuter city or that somehow turns into a good deal if it is combined with another trip, but come on!


That has always been typical in the "off" months, like Sept. and Feb.

With a few exceptions, it's been the entire year in MCO.

WHACKMASTER
10-22-2018, 08:06 AM
That has always been typical in the "off" months, like Sept. and Feb.

With a few exceptions, it's been the entire year in MCO.

Itís bad. Have only been on this side of the partition for 5.5 years but my lord......the trips in TTGA, ELLIT are utter garbage and yet weíre gonna hire another 700(+) next year? WHY?!

RJSAviator76
10-22-2018, 08:52 AM
It’s bad. Have only been on this side of the partition for 5.5 years but my lord......the trips in TTGA, ELLIT are utter garbage and yet we’re gonna hire another 700(+) next year? WHY?!

I read somewhere that the Hawaii operation will take around 30 aircraft or so. I don't think we'll be pulling out of existing markets just to serve Hawaii if we can help it... plus supposedly, we're gonna be adding yet another day of training next year.

WHACKMASTER
10-22-2018, 09:11 AM
I read somewhere that the Hawaii operation will take around 30 aircraft or so. I don't think we'll be pulling out of existing markets just to serve Hawaii if we can help it... plus supposedly, we're gonna be adding yet another day of training next year.

I still donít see it/get it but Iím no expert on manning. However, when my TFP/day worked ratio starts to suffer I am not a happy camper.

I donít mind making less money but donít want to work the same number of days to do it.

PRODUCTIVITY!!!!

Caveman
10-22-2018, 11:41 AM
I still donít see it/get it but Iím no expert on manning. However, when my TFP/day worked ratio starts to suffer I am not a happy camper.

I donít mind making less money but donít want to work the same number of days to do it.

PRODUCTIVITY!!!!

I quoted your post out of convenience...but hope to solict others responses as well.

Why does it seem the topic of Manning, and how it directly effects QOL/Productivity/Flexibility, doesnt really resonate with the SWA pilot population?

Our representation needs to know it's important. But they won't know that, unless we tell them it is.

As recent as 3 months ago there was union communication all was well regarding premium & manning...there's a big reality chasm disconnect the group needs to connect thier representation with regarding manning...and how it is directly tied to QOL/Productivity/Flexibility

WHACKMASTER
10-22-2018, 12:03 PM
I quoted your post out of convenience...but hope to solict others responses as well.

Why does it seem the topic of Manning, and how it directly effects QOL/Productivity/Flexibility, doesnt really resonate with the SWA pilot population?

Our representation needs to know it's important. But they won't know that, unless we tell them it is.

As recent as 3 months ago there was union communication all was well regarding premium & manning...there's a big reality chasm disconnect the group needs to connect thier representation with regarding manning...and how it is directly tied to QOL/Productivity/Flexibility

I will be firing off an email to my reps about this but honestly donít know how much they can effect the companyís hiring practices.

SlipKid
10-23-2018, 08:04 AM
I still don’t see it/get it but I’m no expert on manning. However, when my TFP/day worked ratio starts to suffer I am not a happy camper.

I don’t mind making less money but don’t want to work the same number of days to do it.

PRODUCTIVITY!!!!

My TFP/day worked ratio is definitely down, significantly, this year compared to the last 6 or so. :eek:

Unless there's something in the works that they're not telling us about, like major fleet growth or a new airframe, I'm afraid that this is gonna be the new normal.

WHACKMASTER
10-23-2018, 10:22 AM
My TFP/day worked ratio is definitely down, significantly, this year compared to the last 6 or so. :eek:

Unless there's something in the works that they're not telling us about, like major fleet growth or a new airframe, I'm afraid that this is gonna be the new normal.

Those two scenarios are the only things I can think of. Otherwise why make this the new norm?! SWA has always been about keeping their pilots productive. Itís a win/win. Why would they now want to go to an inefficient manning model?

SlipKid
10-23-2018, 11:17 AM
Those two scenarios are the only things I can think of. Otherwise why make this the new norm?! SWA has always been about keeping their pilots productive. It’s a win/win. Why would they now want to go to an inefficient manning model?

Maybe it "saves" the company money by not paying premium open time? Apparently, it must be "cheaper" to pay many more folks, (plus benefits etc), than to pay fewer folks people premium. ;) :confused:

Peacock
10-23-2018, 11:41 AM
Maybe theyíre concerned about hiring enough pilots once retirements ramp up at the other airlines

Sliceback
10-23-2018, 12:02 PM
ďDomination in the US domestic market.Ē

2017 domestic ASM -

AA 149.2 vs SW +1%
SW 148.4
DL 133.7 -11%
UA 121.8 -22%

You need to define ďdomination.Ē

e6bpilot
10-23-2018, 12:58 PM
ďDomination in the US domestic market.Ē



2017 domestic ASM -



AA 149.2 vs SW +1%

SW 148.4

DL 133.7 -11%

UA 121.8 -22%



You need to define ďdomination.Ē



How many of those AA ASMs are flown by AA pilots?

rightseat
10-23-2018, 05:21 PM
Those two scenarios are the only things I can think of. Otherwise why make this the new norm?! SWA has always been about keeping their pilots productive. Itís a win/win. Why would they now want to go to an inefficient manning model?

As stated previously the only thing an airline can not hide in advance of a significant and rapid expansion is the hiring and training of their pilots. Southwest has poured massive amounts money into both their pilot seniority list and their new training center. The new $500M+ training center along with net pilot seniority list growth of over 2,000+ pilots in 2017 & 2018 and projected 2019 will support an additional 150+ airframes. The training center along with the pilot build up over those three years will have cost them over $1B. Southwest is not spending these massive funds to maintain their publically projected 2-3% growth rate. Any company as fiscally conservative as Southwest, does not spend such massive amounts without an anticipated strategy far outweighing reducing or even eliminating open time.

It is my prediction their plan will be publically announced in late 2019 or early 2020, after the company has balanced the Captain/First Officer ratio, and has their Hawaii routes are running smoothly. A dramatic increase in upgrades from mid to late 2019 will be a signal of the pending expansion.

Take a breath and watch it happen.

Sliceback
10-23-2018, 06:47 PM
How many of those AA ASMs are flown by AA pilots?

100%.

Regional ASM was 32.7.

With regional ASM DL and UA are also probably bigger than SW domestically.

BZC17
10-23-2018, 08:02 PM
100%.

Regional ASM was 32.7.

With regional ASM DL and UA are also probably bigger than SW domestically.
Please post your source. I couldnít find total Asmís. Here is total passengers emplaned. Swaís international is only 1% of our business so Iím trying to make sense of your data?


Total Enplanded passengers in 2017 International and Domestic in Millions (000,000):
Swa 157.66
Delta 145.647
American 144.864
United 107.243

Iíll try to do some more research tonight.

Psycho18th
10-23-2018, 08:09 PM
As stated previously the only thing an airline can not hide in advance of a significant and rapid expansion is the hiring and training of their pilots. Southwest has poured massive amounts money into both their pilot seniority list and their new training center. The new $500M+ training center along with net pilot seniority list growth of over 2,000+ pilots in 2017 & 2018 and projected 2019 will support an additional 150+ airframes. The training center along with the pilot build up over those three years will have cost them over $1B. Southwest is not spending these massive funds to maintain their publically projected 2-3% growth rate. Any company as fiscally conservative as Southwest, does not spend such massive amounts without an anticipated strategy far outweighing reducing or even eliminating open time.

It is my prediction their plan will be publically announced in late 2019 or early 2020, after the company has balanced the Captain/First Officer ratio, and has their Hawaii routes are running smoothly. A dramatic increase in upgrades from mid to late 2019 will be a signal of the pending expansion.

Take a breath and watch it happen.
Pilots through training is probably a pretty long lead time input for growth. Maybe thereís some hedging going on as well? Like hedging fuel, but with pilot bodies before the big ďshortageĒ really starts causing pain everywhere. Pay a little extra now, then make it easy to ride out the shortage until the next financial meltdown where SWA is the only company hiring again.

How about this conspiracy? Theyíre packing the seniority list with over worked and under paid regional guys who are just walking on air to be here, working under this contract. And even better, scooping up guys like me on their first airline and first union who are shocked to have more than 5 days ďoffĒ a month, never deploy, and never have to look at an email without being paid to do so. The company hope being this will dilute the ferocity of the demands in upcoming contract negotiations and save the company billions in the long term.

e6bpilot
10-23-2018, 08:22 PM
100%.



Regional ASM was 32.7.



With regional ASM DL and UA are also probably bigger than SW domestically.



Source?
That data came right off the MIT ADP which I believe takes into account total system traffic including regional feed.
I honestly donít care that much. AA is a great place to work, I just want to make sure your drive by muscle flexing is backed up by real data.
If I am wrong, then I apologize.

Squallrider
10-24-2018, 06:25 AM
I have t been here that long but I can say this company doesnít spend a dollar unless it needs to, walking around the new training center alone can tell you something is up, there are rooms upon rooms that are empty and Iím not just talking about the one floor we all visit. The NOC will be expanding from being one floor to being two in the very near future (yes thereís a entire twin of the current noc below it thatís not being utilized except for a few support staff). Not to mention that plans are drawn up to break out the wall in the sim room to add at least 4 new bays.

The company benefits from running lean, I bet the premium pay alone can be made up by the other costs company occurs with new hires especially considering the price of health care these days, not to mention retirement contributions etc. something is up I guarantee it.

Sliceback
10-24-2018, 06:54 AM
Please post your source. I couldnít find total Asmís. Here is total passengers emplaned. Swaís international is only 1% of our business so Iím trying to make sense of your data?


Total Enplanded passengers in 2017 International and Domestic in Millions (000,000):
Swa 157.66
Delta 145.647
American 144.864
United 107.243

Iíll try to do some more research tonight.

Airlines and the industry tend to track ASM's, or RPM's, over boarded passengers. A passenger flying from NY to LAX generates 3,000 RPM. The entire flight generates ASM's. On a non-stop, with only one flight number, that passenger counts as one boarding. If the passenger takes four flights, all with the same flight number, it counts as four boardings. At least I think that's how it worked in the past. So the same passenger might be counted more than once vs only being counted once on a non-stop or if the flight changes flight numbers.

MIT Airline Data Project has a lot of numbers going back years and years. Regional stuff is on press releases or annual reports of specific airlines.

Airline Data Project (http://web.mit.edu/airlinedata/www/Res_Glossary.html)

Sliceback
10-24-2018, 06:56 AM
Source?
That data came right off the MIT ADP which I believe takes into account total system traffic including regional feed.
I honestly donít care that much. AA is a great place to work, I just want to make sure your drive by muscle flexing is backed up by real data.
If I am wrong, then I apologize.

It's not 'drive by muscle flexing'. SW is at the top of the domestic carriers but doesn't "dominate" the domestic market.

Maybe you could address his "domination" theory for the guys trying to figure out A vs B?

Sliceback
10-24-2018, 07:04 AM
Source?
That data came right off the MIT ADP which I believe takes into account total system traffic including regional feed.
I honestly donít care that much. AA is a great place to work, I just want to make sure your drive by muscle flexing is backed up by real data.
If I am wrong, then I apologize.

The MIT ADP has specific major airline data in a general link and if you click on specific airlines it a breakdown by regions.

BTS has AA's ASM at 147,500,000. Envoy is 6.6 million, for a total of 154 million.

https://www.transtats.bts.gov/Data_Elements.aspx?Data=4

It looks like the MIT airline data is only for the specific airline and doesn't include the regional carriers.

DaveF
10-30-2018, 05:22 AM
Pilots through training is probably a pretty long lead time input for growth. Maybe thereís some hedging going on as well? Like hedging fuel, but with pilot bodies before the big ďshortageĒ really starts causing pain everywhere. Pay a little extra now, then make it easy to ride out the shortage until the next financial meltdown where SWA is the only company hiring again.

How about this conspiracy? Theyíre packing the seniority list with over worked and under paid regional guys who are just walking on air to be here, working under this contract. And even better, scooping up guys like me on their first airline and first union who are shocked to have more than 5 days ďoffĒ a month, never deploy, and never have to look at an email without being paid to do so. The company hope being this will dilute the ferocity of the demands in upcoming contract negotiations and save the company billions in the long term.
I get what you are throwing out there but at least this X regional pilot who is on cloud nine to be onboard the WN train wonít roll over and take anything less than an amazing contract we all deserve. Remember most regional pilots lived and survived over the past 18 years under the worst treatment and contract conditions you could imagine. Most if not all of us understand the process and will be right there with you with steely eyed resolve if that day ever comes which hopefully it doesnít!

03sport007
10-30-2018, 08:43 AM
I get what you are throwing out there but at least this X regional pilot who is on cloud nine to be onboard the WN train wonít roll over and take anything less than an amazing contract we all deserve. Remember most regional pilots lived and survived over the past 18 years under the worst treatment and contract conditions you could imagine. Most if not all of us understand the process and will be right there with you with steely eyed resolve if that day ever comes which hopefully it doesnít!

I had the same thoughts when I read this. Of the three groups that make up most new hires, guys from the regionals are battle hardened.

Zard
10-30-2018, 09:45 AM
I get what you are throwing out there but at least this X regional pilot who is on cloud nine to be onboard the WN train wonít roll over and take anything less than an amazing contract we all deserve. Remember most regional pilots lived and survived over the past 18 years under the worst treatment and contract conditions you could imagine. Most if not all of us understand the process and will be right there with you with steely eyed resolve if that day ever comes which hopefully it doesnít!

Most DOD guys showing up who left before the end of a full 20 career or squadron skipper tour now have worked under toxic leadership without enough resources the last decade and donít want to repeat the process here. I donít have a retirement and Iíve never been at the top of the tree of smiling monkeys (the monkey at the top only sees smiling monkeys when he looks down, the monkey at the bottom only sees a bunch of a**holes when he looks up).

Weíve never had a union before, but Iím living proof we can learn. Without having a retirement to fall back on, Iím plenty vested in being fairly compensated for the level of responsibility we undertake on every billion dollar release we sign.

Iíve also seen enough cheapskate bull**** here on probation already that Iím not buying the LUVfest Kool Aid outside of DAL. SWA is nothing more than a job working for a gigantic corporate behemoth. Anyone who claims otherwise is full of ****. Itís a good job, but if GK could replace me with a monkey who he could pay in bananas, I have no doubts heíd do it in a heartbeat.

Having an old man who is a teamster might give me a little bit of a leg up, but I can assure you even guys who donít have much 121 experience arenít interested in selling ourselves or the profession short in the next round of negotiations.

WHACKMASTER
10-30-2018, 12:16 PM
I owe the last three posters a round. If everyone thought the way you do we’d be further ahead as a profession.

SlipKid
10-30-2018, 01:26 PM
I owe the last three posters a round. If everyone thought the way you do weíd be further ahead as a profession.



Amen brother. :cool:

Ihateusernames
10-30-2018, 03:54 PM
I donít post much but right on to the above posts.


Sent from my iPhone using Tapatalk

Skyward
10-31-2018, 07:11 PM
I had the same thoughts when I read this. Of the three groups that make up most new hires, guys from the regionals are battle hardened.

Agreed. I have an old ALPA pin from a previous carrier with a battle star and know how to vote No when necessary.

03sport007
11-01-2018, 03:46 AM
Agreed. I have an old ALPA pin from a previous carrier with a battle star and know how to vote No when necessary.

89 days???

WHACKMASTER
11-01-2018, 04:54 AM
89 days???

Yup. 89 days. Thanks to those that were assessed and paid my bills during that time. Iíve got no issues with another 89 days at this outfit if need be.

at6d
11-01-2018, 09:51 AM
Yup. 89 days. Thanks to those that were assessed and paid my bills during that time. Iíve got no issues with another 89 days at this outfit if need be.

Youíre welcome. I was at Eagle at the time.

03sport007
11-01-2018, 10:34 AM
For most people it was a 90 days strike. Unless you lived it, then it was 89 days.

Iíd like to say thank you as well!!

O2pilot
11-01-2018, 06:57 PM
Curious what everyone thinks will happen in the future for upgrade times? I know itís dipped a little but I was told the ďbubbleĒ hasnít burst where we didnít hire for 5 years and after that it would go down to say 5-7 years.

Its all a [email protected] Had a guy who had been hired by both SWA and United in January tell me he took SWA because he thought heíd make Captain faster at SWA. Weíve had monthly vacancy bids since then and the last two bids had 2013 hires making Airbus and Guppy Captain in multiple bases. Nobody knows until it happens.

flyguy81
11-01-2018, 09:34 PM
Its all a [email protected] Had a guy who had been hired by both SWA and United in January tell me he took SWA because he thought heíd make Captain faster at SWA. Weíve had monthly vacancy bids since then and the last two bids had 2013 hires making Airbus and Guppy Captain in multiple bases. Nobody knows until it happens.

Unless youíre looking at Denver....in which case SWA might be the faster upgrade. Lol

Smooth at FL450
11-02-2018, 03:00 AM
Its all a [email protected] Had a guy who had been hired by both SWA and United in January tell me he took SWA because he thought heíd make Captain faster at SWA. Weíve had monthly vacancy bids since then and the last two bids had 2013 hires making Airbus and Guppy Captain in multiple bases. Nobody knows until it happens.


January 2018??? That's a pretty bold assumption he made...does he also speculate in BitCoin? Maybe he meant January 2001...


There are certainly reasons to choose SWA over UAL, but a faster upgrade these days isn't one of them!

Albief15
11-02-2018, 05:11 AM
I owe the last three posters a round. If everyone thought the way you do weíd be further ahead as a profession.

Easy to think that mil guys won't be "pro union" but most have long ago learned when leaders are genuinely working for their interest and the greater good or just spreading kool aid around. One of the leaders I admired the most left active duty, passed on O-7, and went into FedEx pretty happy and not looking for a fight. After a couple years of getting jerked around, it was HIS name on a training order grievance. Once some of these warriors are convinced they need to fight, they typically are pretty good at not being afraid to do what is right and backing up their fellow pilots. Across union leadership at ALPA, APA, IPA, and other places you'll find quite a few ex military, including some with leadership experience in a past life. (One fellow ALPA BOD member when I was on was a C-130 ANG commander). So--not all RJ drivers wear backbacks and earbuds, and certainly not every mil guy is a kool aid drinker for life. Sometimes, things are SO much better at an airline it takes them 2-3 years to "figure out" those perks were fought for and earned, and not just handed out like candy by management, but they come along eventually. I certainly did...

Squallrider
11-02-2018, 07:26 AM
What was most junior captain in last award?

Proximity
11-02-2018, 07:47 AM
What was most junior captain in last award?

Same as November, since some bypassers bid to the left seat. Right now a ten year upgrade for a SWA hire. Ironically even though the future looks good for 2014 on onwards hires, upgrade will likely rise to 11-12 years in the near future.

Right now we are working through the bubble of 2008 SWA hires and former AirTran pilots. The junior capt is currently in the range of 800-1000 numbers above the last AirTran hire. Once we get through this group upgrade will start to drop as there were very few hires 2011-2014.

When will that happen? Good question because there are so many variables but hopefully we upgrade 500 next year and we chew up quite a bit of that bubble. LAX should be interesting also, after the initial bid by people who live there, how junior will LAX CA go considering the COS and what looks like poor quality trips.

There are reasons to come to SWA, and good reasons to go to UA, but for someone hired in 2018 I don't see how you could make an argument that upgrade at SWA would be faster.

e6bpilot
11-02-2018, 07:54 AM
Same as November, since some bypassers bid to the left seat. Right now a ten year upgrade for a SWA hire. Ironically even though the future looks good for 2014 on onwards hires, upgrade will likely rise to 11-12 years in the near future.



Right now we are working through the bubble of 2008 SWA hires and former AirTran pilots. The junior capt is currently in the range of 800-1000 numbers above the last AirTran hire. Once we get through this group upgrade will start to drop as there were very few hires 2011-2014.



When will that happen? Good question because there are so many variables but hopefully we upgrade 500 next year and we chew up quite a bit of that bubble. LAX should be interesting also, after the initial bid by people who live there, how junior will LAX CA go considering the COS and what looks like poor quality trips.



There are reasons to come to SWA, and good reasons to go to UA, but for someone hired in 2018 I don't see how you could make an argument that upgrade at SWA would be faster.



Great analysis of the current situation.
I think LA opening plus a huge upgrade boom next year will drive the time lower (eventually). Once we hit the bottom of the AirTran guys, itís going to be game on since the bottom AirTran seniority is roughly in the middle of a huge hiring drought post 2008.

As for the future of the Lance program, it is dying on the vine right now. Lots of folks delaying upgrade means that it is tough to crack the Lance Captain percentage AND be opted in and eligible. I havenít flown with a Lance in over a year.
The only way it will be revived is if senior FOs get spooked into upgrading. The company did a good job of killing that good deal in this contract.

e6bpilot
11-02-2018, 08:00 AM
As for the pro union BS above, I assure you that there are plenty of regional kool aid guzzlers flying the line. By the same token, there are plenty of mil guys who are ardently pro union (myself included). Our most militant, loud mouthed, pro pilot union rep is in Oakland and he is still serving in the military and is a 6 digit FO.

The next contract fight is going to be tough and is going to once again divide this pilot group just like it did before. I think most of the koolies got a big shock last round.

Zard
11-02-2018, 08:08 AM
The only way it will be revived is if senior FOs get spooked into upgrading. The company did a good job of killing that good deal in this contract.

Care to expound on this for a new guy? What in the current contract drives so many guys to bypass upgrade. I can understand QOL being more important than $ for a lot of the people sitting in the right seat around here. Is there something else I'm missing?

Smooth at FL450
11-02-2018, 08:20 AM
What was most junior captain in last award?


July 2008 DOH. We're getting close to a 2 year gap where nobody was hired so upgrade time should drop accordingly, barring any major changes

e6bpilot
11-02-2018, 08:29 AM
Care to expound on this for a new guy? What in the current contract drives so many guys to bypass upgrade. I can understand QOL being more important than $ for a lot of the people sitting in the right seat around here. Is there something else I'm missing?



Sorry I didnít make that clear. The changes in the Lance program are what killed it. The same guys bypass upgrade for the same reasons as before.

Used to be you could lance forever as long as you were in the top 2.4 percent of FOs or whatever the number is and you were opted in. There was a cap on the number of captain duty periods you could fly. It was a good deal and we all know what happens when someone is getting a good deal. Jealously arises and the word ďunfairĒ starts rearing itís ugly head. All good deals are stamped out in the name of fairness.
They changed it to a 12 month up or out , meaning that once you are eligible, you have 12 months and then you are locked out of the program. They also made it unlimited captain duty periods, but it doesnít matter since hardly anyone is eligible for the program now since it is so hard to both crack the top percentage and have 12 months of eligibility.

SlipKid
11-02-2018, 08:59 AM
Sorry I didn’t make that clear. The changes in the Lance program are what killed it. The same guys bypass upgrade for the same reasons as before.

Used to be you could lance forever as long as you were in the top 2.4 percent of FOs or whatever the number is and you were opted in. There was a cap on the number of captain duty periods you could fly. It was a good deal and we all know what happens when someone is getting a good deal. Jealously arises and the word “unfair” starts rearing it’s ugly head. All good deals are stamped out in the name of fairness.
They changed it to a 12 month up or out , meaning that once you are eligible, you have 12 months and then you are locked out of the program. They also made it unlimited captain duty periods, but it doesn’t matter since hardly anyone is eligible for the program now since it is so hard to both crack the top percentage and have 12 months of eligibility.


While it is a factor, it's not just the lance program. Prior to the last contract, when you got close to getting into the top 8% of line holders in your domicile, you went to upgrade training (whether you wanted to or not) and were designated a lance as long as you were in that 8%. It would fluctuate, and it was possible to get bumped below 8%, and you couldn't exercise your lance privileges. There were very few restrictions on lance back then, and while a few folks did camp out in those seats for years (most spent a few months at most), it is nothing compared to the numbers today.

In MCO, many folks are bypassing upgrade for years vs. commuting to the left seat. Most of them tell me that they can make close the same money picking up FO open time in domicile on the same number of days that they'd be otherwise commuting, so they prefer to keep the QOL and flexibility. I can't say that I blame them.

Squallrider
11-02-2018, 08:59 AM
Care to expound on this for a new guy? What in the current contract drives so many guys to bypass upgrade. I can understand QOL being more important than $ for a lot of the people sitting in the right seat around here. Is there something else I'm missing?

A Senior FO can get a great schedule and mostly premium with some luck making almost captain pay whilst getting days off they want. I should say thatís traditionally as that depends of course on how much premium there is to go around

WhaleSurfing
11-02-2018, 10:32 AM
Also, with the sample ETOPS schedule that was posted for OAK, with both the front and back end non-commutable, I think youíll see the Oakland EBG go very very junior for captains. OAK has a lot of commuters and the hotel and crash pad situation there sucks.

ZapBrannigan
11-02-2018, 11:24 AM
Also, with the sample ETOPS schedule that was posted for OAK, with both the front and back end non-commutable, I think youíll see the Oakland EBG go very very junior for captains. OAK has a lot of commuters and the hotel and crash pad situation there sucks.


Let me be very clear. My ego is not so delicate that I need a cross country commute to a cheap hotel in a bad neighborhood just so I can have new business cards printed that say ĎCaptainí.

But one manís trash is another manís treasure I guess...


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RckyMtHigh
11-02-2018, 12:07 PM
Also, with the sample ETOPS schedule that was posted for OAK, with both the front and back end non-commutable, I think youíll see the Oakland EBG go very very junior for captains. OAK has a lot of commuters and the hotel and crash pad situation there sucks.

Yeah, if they donít make those a little better deal theyíre going to have a hard time. Just because it has a Hawaii overnight doesnít mean anyone is going to want to work longer for less pay. On the FO side, it will be a bunch of new hire FOs that will bid out at their first chance (and wonít have the 6 month lock) which means a large and sustained training footprint to keep etops manned.

Jeff Lebowski
11-02-2018, 01:50 PM
Let me be very clear. My ego is not so delicate that I need a cross country commute to a cheap hotel in a bad neighborhood just so I can have new business cards printed that say ĎCaptainí.

But one manís trash is another manís treasure I guess...


Sent from my iPad using Tapatalk

When I upgrade I will have my first name legally changed to Captain.

TransWorld
11-02-2018, 04:32 PM
When I upgrade I will have my first name legally changed to Captain.

If you are going to do it, why not legally change both your first and middle names to Chief and Pilot.

There, saved you a second trip to the courthouse.

PotatoChip
11-02-2018, 05:16 PM
When I upgrade I will have my first name legally changed to Captain.

So, Captain Captain?

That's not a far leap from Major Major Major!

(If you catch my reference.)

Cysco4120
11-02-2018, 07:05 PM
Same as November, since some bypassers bid to the left seat. Right now a ten year upgrade for a SWA hire. Ironically even though the future looks good for 2014 on onwards hires, upgrade will likely rise to 11-12 years in the near future.

Right now we are working through the bubble of 2008 SWA hires and former AirTran pilots. The junior capt is currently in the range of 800-1000 numbers above the last AirTran hire. Once we get through this group upgrade will start to drop as there were very few hires 2011-2014.

When will that happen? Good question because there are so many variables but hopefully we upgrade 500 next year and we chew up quite a bit of that bubble. LAX should be interesting also, after the initial bid by people who live there, how junior will LAX CA go considering the COS and what looks like poor quality trips.

There are reasons to come to SWA, and good reasons to go to UA, but for someone hired in 2018 I don't see how you could make an argument that upgrade at SWA would be faster.


This is pretty good info. I could hold OAK CA during the June and July vacancy because many senior FOís didnít want to go to training in the summer. Since then I havenít been close to holding CA. Missed by 100-150 numbers. I am at 10.5 years next month and with 500 plus upgrades next year the numbers will come down a bit but like was said above the big factor is how many of the 1000 that are bypassing move to the left seat.

hoover
11-03-2018, 09:05 PM
So, Captain Captain?

That's not a far leap from Major Major Major!

(If you catch my reference.)

That's a good book

LandGreen2
11-09-2018, 05:47 AM
Care to expound on this for a new guy? What in the current contract drives so many guys to bypass upgrade. I can understand QOL being more important than $ for a lot of the people sitting in the right seat around here. Is there something else I'm missing?

It's hard to compare SW, AK, or JB upgrade times to US3. There are many FOs bypassing upgrade flying 777, 787 etc.. who will not go back to NB flying. That fact alone is a big factor in quick upgrades in NB aircraft at the US3 (especially in NY) Those same pilots if working at SW, AK or JB would probably take a more traditional upgrade, thereby increasing upgrade times at carriers with only 1 or 2 fleet types. One thing for sure is that those newly minted CAs at the US3 will be Junior at Junior bases for a very long time... Some folks love the money, some love QOL, some love the fourth stripe. Nice to have choices!



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