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View Full Version : New Irish Tax Law


queuetip
10-09-2018, 08:20 AM
Interesting new tax being levied in Ireland. Anyone know how this will affect folks like Norwegian?
https://www.irishtimes.com/business/economy/budget-to-unveil-new-tax-on-multinational-asset-shifting-1.3656986


NEDude
10-10-2018, 04:30 AM
Interesting new tax being levied in Ireland. Anyone know how this will affect folks like Norwegian?
https://www.irishtimes.com/business/economy/budget-to-unveil-new-tax-on-multinational-asset-shifting-1.3656986

Probably very little. From the article: "All EU member states were due to introduce the tax by 2020 at the latest, under the EU Anti-Tax Avoidance Directive." So all EU airlines will have to deal with it.

As long as Norwegian keeps the NAI AOC based in Ireland, it should not affect them at all. Only if they close NAI and move the Ireland based assets elsewhere.

Andy
10-10-2018, 10:37 AM
Interesting new tax being levied in Ireland. Anyone know how this will affect folks like Norwegian?
https://www.irishtimes.com/business/economy/budget-to-unveil-new-tax-on-multinational-asset-shifting-1.3656986

Norwegian's got 160 aircraft for sale. They're extremely close to triggering bond covenants. I doubt Norwegian will exist by this time next year.
The real question is who follows Primera into liquidation first - Norwegian or WOW air.


captjns
10-10-2018, 02:46 PM
Norwegian's got 160 aircraft for sale. They're extremely close to triggering bond covenants. I doubt Norwegian will exist by this time next year.
The real question is who follows Primera into liquidation first - Norwegian or WOW air.

https://www.ainonline.com/aviation-news/air-transport/2018-09-06/norwegian-upholds-growth-strategy-plans-sell-140-aircraft#

Selling 140 aircraft while purchasing 65 A320neos and 30 A321LRs.
Not to mention taking delivery of additional 11 Boeing 787-9s and to add 12 Boeing 737 Max 8s and two Boeing 737-800s.

Andy
10-11-2018, 09:22 AM
https://www.ainonline.com/aviation-news/air-transport/2018-09-06/norwegian-upholds-growth-strategy-plans-sell-140-aircraft#

Selling 140 aircraft while purchasing 65 A320neos and 30 A321LRs.
Not to mention taking delivery of additional 11 Boeing 787-9s and to add 12 Boeing 737 Max 8s and two Boeing 737-800s.

You're correct; I didn't bother rechecking the number. It's 140, not 160. Norwegian will have a fleet size of 164 aircraft at year end 2018 before any sales. And are scheduled to take delivery of 19 aircraft in 2019.

The reason why Norwegian has to sell assets is due to the fact that they are dangerously close to triggering bond covenants, which require them to have certain liquidity levels. This is not a secret. It's well known by every airline exec out there. For that reason, Norwegian is/will be getting lowball offers for their aircraft.

If one compares the monthly RASK from Q3 (Jul Aug Sep) to their Q2 CASK, it's pretty obvious that Q3 was barely above breakeven before one time credits/charges. And Q3 is traditionally Norwegian's best quarter. Q4 and Q1 have always had losses, so unless Norwegian recapitalizes its balance sheet again (they did this with secondary stock offerings this last spring), they're dead. Selling most of their fleet will raise some capital along with deferring deliveries.

My personal guess is that, absent some capital raise, Norwegian will close its doors in January due to Q4's cash burn which will trigger bond covenants. And WOW Air will likely follow them into insolvency a few months later. The reason why they're both dead is that it's impossible to have a TATL ULCC with year round service. The flipflop and backpack crowd travels TATL in a four month or so window, making the rest of the year unprofitable. Heck, Norwegian's September Air Traffic numbers indicate that they lost money in that month.