Airline Pilot Forums

Airline Pilot Forums was designed to be a community where working airline pilots can share ideas and information about the aviation field. In the forum you will find information about major and regional airline carriers, career training, interview and job seeker help, finance, and living the airline pilot lifestyle.




WhiskyWhisky
11-05-2018, 09:15 AM
In 5 to 7 years:
1) Fleet and size?
2) Bases?
3) Contract?


Predictions?



And don't be a smarta$$ and tell me the 146's are coming back.


Otterbox
11-05-2018, 09:42 AM
In 5 to 7 years:
1) Fleet and size?
2) Bases?
3) Contract?


Predictions?



And don't be a smarta$$ and tell me the 146's are coming back.

Doom and gloom as they near the end of their Contract extension with United this time.

DarkSideMoon
11-05-2018, 09:59 AM
In 5 to 7 years:
1) Fleet and size?
2) Bases?
3) Contract?


Predictions?



And don't be a smarta$$ and tell me the 146's are coming back.

Still flying -200ís, maybe scraping some new airframes from other regionals that canít staff theirs or from foreign carriers. Fleet reduction, maybe 45-50 airplanes, still the same post 9-11 concessionary contract.

I donít see them going away but someone would have to give up on scope to get bigger airplanes. Unless they came from another regional which is unlikely given the state of staffing.


squib
11-05-2018, 11:09 AM
Fleet reduction, maybe 45-50 airplanes, still the same post 9-11 concessionary contract.


LOL Fleet reduction. Thatís the number of planes flying right now.

DarkSideMoon
11-05-2018, 12:24 PM
LOL Fleet reduction. Thatís the number of planes flying right now.

Which means theyíll be able to staff 35 of them 😂

Day4mx
11-05-2018, 04:49 PM
Good thing that new hanger in atw fits four 200s or 3 large regionals as they love to continually repeat.

pitchtrim
11-06-2018, 05:24 AM
The 146s are coming back.

el jefe
11-06-2018, 05:52 AM
The 146s are coming back.

https://scontent-lga3-1.xx.fbcdn.net/v/t1.0-9/43639659_779884492359951_1998419433533472768_o.jpg ?_nc_cat=101&_nc_ht=scontent-lga3-1.xx&oh=d85d9d6e3cc4f326cb1f73fdcbd03b94&oe=5C4355A5

CanWeGetTheLeft
11-06-2018, 05:59 AM
We’re getting bought by Moxy and transitioning to A220’s. ;)

squib
11-07-2018, 09:50 PM
Good thing that new hanger in atw fits four 200s or 3 large regionals as they love to continually repeat.


The fine print reads 3 G650's.

DonConsult67
11-08-2018, 03:21 AM
Out of business.


The combination of flying an airplane the traveling public hates, an airplane which is fast becoming the bastard child, steadily rising fares, and the problematic demographics of regional airline staffing will hasten AW's demise.


The niche market for the CRJ-200 is dying as evidenced by the hastened retirements of these POS airplanes by SkyWest, Endeavor, and PSA.

Cessnaflyer1213
11-08-2018, 08:21 AM
An interesting question indeed ... this company is one of the oldest left in the regional industry. That says something about their past, but what does it say about the future? Sears was a retail giant for decades, what's happening to them?

The Beech 1900 and Dash 8's used to rule the regional skies. The CRJ 200 effectively retired them. Now, the E170/175's are here and possibly the new C series. More passengers, better fuel economy, higher per seat mile profitability, 2 class seating, and higher passenger satisfaction. I believe these airplanes will retire the CRJ 200s in the next 5-10 years.

Will AW acquire new aircraft and evolve with the times? They have in the past. I doubt they will simply close the doors and put the planes, equipment, gate slots, and routes to auction. It's worth much more as a profitable entity. Merger or acquisition target have better chances than simply closing the doors. There's also a better chance of simply adding CRJ 700/900 than getting new E175's. Transition training is easier and CRJ parts are familiar for maintenance.

The lack of vision and direction at the line level does make it a frustrating company to work for. It leads to the negativity you read on these "***** boards". It feels like they barely know how to keep heads above water tomorrow, let alone a 3-5 year goal. I would like to see the company grow and evolve, but actually making it happen is much, much harder.

Soxfan1
11-08-2018, 08:28 AM
Out of business.


The combination of flying an airplane the traveling public hates, an airplane which is fast becoming the bastard child, steadily rising fares, and the problematic demographics of regional airline staffing will hasten AW's demise.


The niche market for the CRJ-200 is dying as evidenced by the hastened retirements of these POS airplanes by SkyWest, Endeavor, and PSA.

I no longer view the fleet of paid off CRJs as our most valuable asset though it is an advantage. Itís now the 550 typed airline pilots in a tight job market that will only get tighter. So no matter what happens there is a value in that seniority list to AWA that could factor into our future in keeping us in business. That said the main factor that drives our future is this:

Scope.

Itís everything. Yes the public hates 50 seaters. Yes the finance on them doesnít look great with higher oil. But UAL can have up to 300 of them and it looks like UA pilots will not cave on scope (rightfully so) so I donít see any other option for UA. UA canít just chop 300 50 seat aircraft out of their system - Itís about half the UAX fleet or a quarter of the total UA / UAX fleet. So AWAs future is tied to UA ALPA holding the line on scope. And I see them doing just that. And since AWA owns its own 50 seaters, unlike some other UAX 50 to 76 seat carriers, we are in a better position to keep flying a chunk of that 50 seat market that UA canít not have.

So since this thread is a guessing game and predicting 5-7 years out in this industry is about as accurate as a 14 day weather forecast, Iíll give it a go:

4 years remaining on current deal will be extended to 6. Then extended again for x years after that, covering the 5-7 in question. That is again if scope stays as is.

DarkSideMoon
11-08-2018, 08:28 AM
An interesting question indeed ... this company is one of the oldest left in the regional industry. That says something about their past, but what does it say about the future? Sears was a retail giant for decades, what's happening to them?

The Beech 1900 and Dash 8's used to rule the regional skies. The CRJ 200 effectively retired them. Now, the E170/175's are here and possibly the new C series. More passengers, better fuel economy, higher per seat mile profitability, 2 class seating, and higher passenger satisfaction. I believe these airplanes will retire the CRJ 200s in the next 5-10 years.

Will AW acquire new aircraft and evolve with the times? They have in the past. I doubt they will simply close the doors and put the planes, equipment, gate slots, and routes to auction. It's worth much more as a profitable entity. Merger or acquisition target have better chances than simply closing the doors. There's also a better chance of simply adding CRJ 700/900 than getting new E175's. Transition training is easier and CRJ parts are familiar for maintenance.

The lack of vision and direction at the line level does make it a frustrating company to work for. It leads to the negativity you read on these "***** boards". It feels like they barely know how to keep heads above water tomorrow, let alone a 3-5 year goal. I would like to see the company grow and evolve, but actually making it happen is much, much harder.

They canít add 170ís or 7/9ís unless we take flying from another regional, which is doubtful given our atrocious performance compared to the rest of the UAX stable unless we can actually staff.

tonsterboy5
11-08-2018, 02:02 PM
They canít add 170ís or 7/9ís unless we take flying from another regional, which is doubtful given our atrocious performance compared to the rest of the UAX stable unless we can actually staff.

for the last 3 months we have had the best or very close to the best performance. After the summer melt down and a cutback on flying paired with increased hiring our performance is back on top.

DarkSideMoon
11-08-2018, 02:43 PM
for the last 3 months we have had the best or very close to the best performance. After the summer melt down and a cutback on flying paired with increased hiring our performance is back on top.

Because united cut our flying back. Weíve grown by maybe 25 people this year. We still canít staff the promised number of airplanes. If we ever get back up to full staffing and still have those numbers Iíll believe United might reallocate some larger aircraft.

Cessnaflyer1213
11-09-2018, 11:06 AM
They canít add 170ís or 7/9ís unless we take flying from another regional, which is doubtful given our atrocious performance compared to the rest of the UAX stable unless we can actually staff.

It becomes a question of capacity. I'm sure you have noticed, but there aren't too many flights under 46 passengers. If you need to move 150 people and have a hard time hiring pilots, would you rather have 3 flights of 50 people or 2 flights of 75? With limited resources in the form of landing slots, gates, and pilots the only way to satisfy higher passenger demand is by increasing seats with larger aircraft. But ... it's an economic gamble. What happens when the economy goes bad? If you only have 35 people that want seats, would you rather have an old 50 seater that's paid off or a new 75 seater with a big loan payment? The airline industry is notoriously tough to make money in .... We don't have to take away anybody's flying, the demand is there. Some of these out stations would simply have 1-2 fewer flights but more passengers per load. The company can actually deliver a greater lift capacity with 50 - 75 seat aircraft than 65 - 50 seat aircraft. And .... the current 550ish pilot corp would fully staff it.

flightlessbirds
11-09-2018, 01:14 PM
It becomes a question of capacity. I'm sure you have noticed, but there aren't too many flights under 46 passengers. If you need to move 150 people and have a hard time hiring pilots, would you rather have 3 flights of 50 people or 2 flights of 75? With limited resources in the form of landing slots, gates, and pilots the only way to satisfy higher passenger demand is by increasing seats with larger aircraft. But ... it's an economic gamble. What happens when the economy goes bad? If you only have 35 people that want seats, would you rather have an old 50 seater that's paid off or a new 75 seater with a big loan payment? The airline industry is notoriously tough to make money in .... We don't have to take away anybody's flying, the demand is there. Some of these out stations would simply have 1-2 fewer flights but more passengers per load. The company can actually deliver a greater lift capacity with 50 - 75 seat aircraft than 65 - 50 seat aircraft. And .... the current 550ish pilot corp would fully staff it.

But UAL is maxed on large RJ scope and their pilot group isnít going to give Kirby more scope. UAL doesnít want a new small Narrowbody (A220, E190, etc) to unlock more large RJ scope.

Also frequency vs aircraft capacity isnít as clear cut ó schedule matters and UALís advantage on connecting traffic vs AA might end up including having better schedules for connecting feed (higher frequencies). Make the regional connections too difficult or long waits at hubs and folks might increasingly opt to drive to the hub (where LCC are more of a threat and ticket margins are more competitively assigned).

DarkSideMoon
11-09-2018, 07:31 PM
It becomes a question of capacity. I'm sure you have noticed, but there aren't too many flights under 46 passengers. If you need to move 150 people and have a hard time hiring pilots, would you rather have 3 flights of 50 people or 2 flights of 75? With limited resources in the form of landing slots, gates, and pilots the only way to satisfy higher passenger demand is by increasing seats with larger aircraft. But ... it's an economic gamble. What happens when the economy goes bad? If you only have 35 people that want seats, would you rather have an old 50 seater that's paid off or a new 75 seater with a big loan payment? The airline industry is notoriously tough to make money in .... We don't have to take away anybody's flying, the demand is there. Some of these out stations would simply have 1-2 fewer flights but more passengers per load. The company can actually deliver a greater lift capacity with 50 - 75 seat aircraft than 65 - 50 seat aircraft. And .... the current 550ish pilot corp would fully staff it.

Educate yourself on what scope means. Not trying to be a jerk but once you read up on it youíll see my point better.

Cessnaflyer1213
11-09-2018, 08:04 PM
Educate yourself on what scope means. Not trying to be a jerk but once you read up on it youíll see my point better.

From Flight Global magazine, "The scope clause in United's contract with the Air Line Pilots Association (ALPA) limits it to 255 large regional aircraft, defined as ones with up to 76 seats and a maximum take-off weight (MTOW) of 39,010kg (86,000lb), and a cap of 450 regional aircraft when the contract becomes amendable in January 2019.

The Chicago-based carrier had 494 regional aircraft, including 235 large regional jets and 238 jets with up to 50 seats, in its feeder fleet at the end of 2016, its latest fleet plan shows."

You are right, it's a factor. Noboby can grow without addressing that. Thanks, but I understand scope. According to these numbers, there's room for 30 large RJs somewhere. Didn't UA recently announce they were buying 25 E175s? I'm sure ZW, and every other contractor, are in some kind of competition for the planes. I'm sure it will be an interesting negotiation soon. Kirby and the UA MEC have already started their war of words. We'll see what the future holds ....

DarkSideMoon
11-09-2018, 08:15 PM
From Flight Global magazine, "The scope clause in United's contract with the Air Line Pilots Association (ALPA) limits it to 255 large regional aircraft, defined as ones with up to 76 seats and a maximum take-off weight (MTOW) of 39,010kg (86,000lb), and a cap of 450 regional aircraft when the contract becomes amendable in January 2019.

The Chicago-based carrier had 494 regional aircraft, including 235 large regional jets and 238 jets with up to 50 seats, in its feeder fleet at the end of 2016, its latest fleet plan shows."

You are right, it's a factor. Noboby can grow without addressing that. Thanks, but I understand scope. According to these numbers, there's room for 30 large RJs somewhere. Didn't UA recently announce they were buying 25 E175s? I'm sure ZW, and every other contractor, are in some kind of competition for the planes. I'm sure it will be an interesting negotiation soon. Kirby and the UA MEC have already started their war of words. We'll see what the future holds ....

Those are two year old numbers. More current info shows united at capacity with scope.
https://www.flightglobal.com/news/articles/analysis-are-us-airlines-at-their-next-scope-crossr-446881/

Those 170/175ís are going to Expressjet, likely taking old 700/900 flying away from gojet. That was a key point in their new contract.

Itís doubtful United pilots would give any more leeway on scope given how much that has already screwed them.

WhiskyWhisky
11-10-2018, 08:15 AM
https://www.inc.com/bill-murphy-jr/these-united-airlines-regional-carrier-flight-attendants-just-authorized-a-strike-their-strategy-chaos-its-genius-or-maybe-evil-you-decide.html

wolfpack99
11-10-2018, 09:24 AM
PSA is offering $20,000 on top of the $16,520 to anyone with 1,000 121 hours and willing to accept a rapid upgrade. Coming in with a CL-65 type rating is an extra $5,000 bonus! When you factor in all the per diem and bonuses, you're looking at earning over 100,000 your first year!

mcat
11-10-2018, 09:29 AM
You can make that much if not more as soon as you upgrade at airwis without the need for bonuses.

Melit
11-10-2018, 10:50 AM
Those are two year old numbers. More current info shows united at capacity with scope.
https://www.flightglobal.com/news/articles/analysis-are-us-airlines-at-their-next-scope-crossr-446881/

Those 170/175ís are going to Expressjet, likely taking old 700/900 flying away from gojet. That was a key point in their new contract.

Itís doubtful United pilots would give any more leeway on scope given how much that has already screwed them.
Where did you hear that??

prex8390
11-10-2018, 11:05 AM
Where did you hear that??

All over expressjet thread.

DarkSideMoon
11-10-2018, 11:37 AM
Where did you hear that??

Thereís a clause in their new contract that if they donít get the 175ís their pay goes back into negotiation. Management over there basically told them that they need to take their new contract if they want new airplanes.

Sure, something weird could happen but I wouldnít count on it.

Melit
11-10-2018, 11:59 AM
All over expressjet thread.

APC is not a good source for info...

DarkSideMoon
11-10-2018, 12:07 PM
APC is not a good source for info...

Take a gander at their latest TA.

amcnd
11-10-2018, 12:08 PM
Air Wisconsin is top notch pay/benefits. They always have been. My main concern is will a privately held company (mostly older ready for retirement ownership) want to invest billions in new aircraft and 20 year loans/leases?? Doubtful for owners in there 60ís..??...

DarkSideMoon
11-10-2018, 12:13 PM
Air Wisconsin is top notch pay/benefits. They always have been. My main concern is will a privately held company (mostly older ready for retirement ownership) want to invest billions in new aircraft and 20 year loans/leases?? Doubtful for owners in there 60ís..??...

Top notch insurance, definitely not top notch pay.

Melit
11-10-2018, 12:50 PM
Take a gander at their latest TA.

It just states if they are not awarded the 175's they go back to negotiations. Remember it's up to United to place them where they see fit.

DarkSideMoon
11-10-2018, 01:59 PM
It just states if they are not awarded the 175's they go back to negotiations. Remember it's up to United to place them where they see fit.

You donít think thatís a pretty strong indicator that theyíre going to Expressjet? Thereís 0 evidence to support them coming here.

Melit
11-11-2018, 05:25 AM
You donít think thatís a pretty strong indicator that theyíre going to Expressjet? Thereís 0 evidence to support them coming here.

It was a negotiating tactic. Xjet can't staff them unless they park 145's and United won't have that. I'm sure Mesa, Compass, republic and Skywest want them also...I bet Air Whisky wants them too.

DarkSideMoon
11-11-2018, 06:09 AM
It was a negotiating tactic. Xjet can't staff them unless they park 145's and United won't have that. I'm sure Mesa, Compass, republic and Skywest want them also...I bet Air Whisky wants them too.

Well, weíve grown by less than 30 this year and are still a few hundred pilots short of normal staffing so Į\_(ツ)_/Į.

But sure, 175ís are just around the corner.



Search Engine Optimization by vBSEO 3.6.1