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View Full Version : Upgrade times in the future?


oldboyroy
11-17-2018, 05:05 AM
Can anyone give me a fair estimation how upgrades will be affected in the future with the LAX base, Hawaii, growth, new order deliveries, and eventually retirements? They should go down right?


PotatoChip
11-17-2018, 05:13 AM
Can anyone give me a fair estimation how upgrades will be affected in the future with the LAX base, Hawaii, growth, new order deliveries, and eventually retirements? They should go down right?

No.
And there isn't much growth.

Botched
11-17-2018, 06:56 AM
No.
And there isn't much growth.

Wow, nice outburst.
Expect upgrade times to go down for LAX base. Its going to be 400 pilots. Not a lot of commuters from the LA area. Also Hawaii lines do not seem like something to flight over. Yes there is decent growth over the next 2 years for airframes and expect SWA to pounce on twoish airlines when this recession hits.


RJSAviator76
11-17-2018, 07:45 AM
Upgrade will finally come down to about 15 years from current 25. Exciting times! :D

Peacock
11-17-2018, 08:40 AM
No.
And there isn't much growth.

I started 15 months ago. There are over 1000 below me on the seniority list.

PotatoChip
11-17-2018, 09:31 AM
Wow, nice outburst.
Expect upgrade times to go down for LAX base. Its going to be 400 pilots. Not a lot of commuters from the LA area. Also Hawaii lines do not seem like something to flight over. Yes there is decent growth over the next 2 years for airframes and expect SWA to pounce on twoish airlines when this recession hits.

I started 15 months ago. There are over 1000 below me on the seniority list.

Outburst?? What? What I said was pretty simply stated.
There is some growth over the next few years, but there is also a lot of replacing old airframes. The net growth isnít near as much as some other airlines. Iím certainly not saying itís a bad place to be, as it is my dream job, but Iím realistic. As to having 1000 pilots blow you, congratulations! The airline is also very overstaffed. Overstaffed does not equal growth.

Peacock
11-17-2018, 09:35 AM
Outburst?? What? What I said was pretty simply stated.
There is some growth over the next few years, but there is also a lot of replacing old airframes. The net growth isnít near as much as some other airlines. Iím certainly not saying itís a bad place to be, as it is my dream job, but Iím realistic. As to having 1000 pilots blow you, congratulations! The airline is also very overstaffed. Overstaffed does not equal growth.

So how many airframes will be replaced in the coming years? You seem to have the information

PotatoChip
11-17-2018, 09:37 AM
So how many airframes will be replaced in the coming years? You seem to have the information

I donít have all the information. And Iím not saying that I do. Iím going off percentages of growth that have been stater on this forum and by Southwest recruiters and management at the in-house job fair. Expect 3%.

oldboyroy
11-17-2018, 10:48 AM
So it canít go up....it should go down right?

If it goes up, that means it is a bad place to be.

Squallrider
11-17-2018, 01:04 PM
So it canít go up....it should go down right?

If it goes up, that means it is a bad place to be.

Itíll go down for the period we hired minimally for 2-3 years. Retirements here are low but growth is relatively good and the potential for growth is also good. Adding Hawaii alone will cause growth of 500 pilots. Now if we go more to South America as planned and maybe one day Canada it really adds to growth. Iíve given up on another fleet type but who knows.

MudhammedCJ
11-17-2018, 06:32 PM
Canada! We don't know how to find that place! What are you thinking?!

at6d
11-17-2018, 07:30 PM
Current upgrades are at about 9.5 for the plug if I'm not mistaken.

Cysco4120
11-17-2018, 07:37 PM
Current upgrades are at about 9.5 for the plug if I'm not mistaken.

Closer to 10.5. July 2008

at6d
11-17-2018, 10:26 PM
Closer to 10.5. July 2008

Yeah you are right. My mistake.

Salukidawg
11-18-2018, 07:46 AM
Upgrade predictions are just that...predictions. As potato chip already said, look for another M&A event in the not too distant future with the enevitable SLI that goes along with it, any upgrade predictions go right up in smoke. Just ask anyone who was here during WN/FL. Plan 10-12 year upgrades on AVERAGE over the next 10 years and I think you will probably be in the ballpark. And before anyone jumps my case about being negative, Iím actually trying to keep expectations realistic.

NorskAir
11-18-2018, 10:46 PM
Outburst?? What? What I said was pretty simply stated.
There is some growth over the next few years, but there is also a lot of replacing old airframes. The net growth isn’t near as much as some other airlines. I’m certainly not saying it’s a bad place to be, as it is my dream job, but I’m realistic. As to having 1000 pilots blow you, congratulations! The airline is also very overstaffed. Overstaffed does not equal growth.

PSA, PotatoChip is a troll, he supposedly flies for Endeavor. He has absolutely no insight in what goes on at SWA. My best guess he is a rejected pilot candidate with a chip on his shoulder....(pun intended)

PotatoChip
11-19-2018, 04:22 AM
PSA, PotatoChip is a troll, he supposedly flies for Endeavor. He has absolutely no insight in what goes on at SWA. My best guess he is a rejected pilot candidate with a chip on his shoulder....(pun intended)

Again, what?
Do you seriously have zero reading comprehension? I never stated I work at SWA, and actually CLEARLY stated my information was from the in-house career fair and other posts on this forum. I do, in fact, fly for Endeavor, not something I'm hiding. SWA is a career goal. Something else I've made abundantly clear.
Troll? Read my post history.

TexasFlight
11-19-2018, 06:10 AM
So how many airframes will be replaced in the coming years? You seem to have the information

Net gain of 142 aircraft over the next 5 years, I believe. Once we get through 500 or so upgrades in 2019 coupled with LAX and Hawaii finally starting, things should equalize somewhat. As for upgrade time? Who knows. 8-11 years is probably a safe bet.

RJSAviator76
11-19-2018, 07:29 AM
OK, let's put this to rest already, APC style...

Time to hold ATL as an FO - 10 years.

Time to upgrade to Captain - 15 years (OAK) elsewhere it's 20-25 years.

Time to upgrade to ATL Captain - 35 years.

;):D

Grumpyaviator
11-19-2018, 08:12 AM
OK, let's put this to rest already, APC style...

Time to hold ATL as an FO - 10 years.

Time to upgrade to Captain - 15 years (OAK) elsewhere it's 20-25 years.

Time to upgrade to ATL Captain - 35 years.

;):D


FOs now hold Atl in much less than a year. 11/17 class was holding it in the early summer.

Grumpyaviator
11-19-2018, 08:13 AM
Again, what?
Do you seriously have zero reading comprehension? I never stated I work at SWA, and actually CLEARLY stated my information was from the in-house career fair and other posts on this forum. I do, in fact, fly for Endeavor, not something I'm hiding. SWA is a career goal. Something else I've made abundantly clear.
Troll? Read my post history.


Youíre making a great impression.

PotatoChip
11-19-2018, 08:53 AM
You’re making a great impression.

Forgive me, but I don’t get it. The OP started a brand new thread about upgrade times when there is a large thread just four below this one. Further, as we all know (I thought) estimating upgrade times for a decade away is near impossible. All I have done is give information that was disseminated by Southwest employees directly. If doing any of this makes me a jerk, apologies are made. Forgive me to whoever I could’ve possibly offended by being direct and honest.

Peacock
11-19-2018, 11:59 AM
Forgive me, but I donít get it.

You should have stopped there

sailingfun
11-19-2018, 12:04 PM
Itíll go down for the period we hired minimally for 2-3 years. Retirements here are low but growth is relatively good and the potential for growth is also good. Adding Hawaii alone will cause growth of 500 pilots. Now if we go more to South America as planned and maybe one day Canada it really adds to growth. Iíve given up on another fleet type but who knows.

500 pilots would give you enough block hours to fund about 90 Hawaii flights a day. SWA has big plans there!

Squallrider
11-19-2018, 02:30 PM
500 pilots would give you enough block hours to fund about 90 Hawaii flights a day. SWA has big plans there!

I think they have planes for California in general. 500 pilots a side makes 250 or so working at any given time. 8 pilots per plane makes 30 odd planes in rotation flying between lax and Hawaii (a few spares and inter island flying) and any other destinations, I believe Mexico and Central America will see new destinations. I donít think 500 is a crazy number but I doubt itíll be less than 300

Mr chub
11-19-2018, 04:08 PM
Upgrades are currently at 10 years. That has been the steady time frame for the last 2.5 years. New hires I fly with today are thinking it could be less than 10 years if we continue our hiring trend, however I would plan on 10 years to be on the safe side.

sMFer
11-19-2018, 11:17 PM
I think they have planes for California in general. 500 pilots a side makes 250 or so working at any given time. 8 pilots per plane makes 30 odd planes in rotation flying between lax and Hawaii (a few spares and inter island flying) and any other destinations, I believe Mexico and Central America will see new destinations. I donít think 500 is a crazy number but I doubt itíll be less than 300

Are you here at SWA? We don't have spares sitting around, we won't be flying to LAX from Hawaii and the next big plan will most likely be terminal 0 being built in LA for South America.

Sent from my Moto G (4) using Tapatalk

Proximity
11-20-2018, 05:47 AM
This is a pretty sad thread. Lots of minformation from people that don't work here. The OP can't scroll down a few lines and find a long thread where this was already discussed? Who cares about upgrade anyways? I don't need my ego stroked. I'm a "mid-level" FO now (according to SWAPA) and with NEC, stock purchase, and PS I'll probably do $200k total this year. Probably going to block less then 550 for the year. Just turned a week of vacation into a month off, plus also have xmas and new years off. A senior FO with the same yearly TFP as me would be nearer to $300k. The pay delta between senior FO pay and junior CA pay is smaller then you might think due to seniority having a large effect on being able to increase your TFP.

Pilots asking about upgrade time at a destination airline don't get it. It's about total earnings, QQL, stability, and growth. SWA does well in all of these areas. Other airlines do well also. Choosing one airline over another means making tradeoffs. Assuming you have multiple offers, a pilot should consider the above factors and not worry about upgrade.

Smooth at FL450
11-20-2018, 06:08 AM
This is a pretty sad thread. Lots of minformation from people that don't work here. The OP can't scroll down a few lines and find a long thread where this was already discussed? Who cares about upgrade anyways? I don't need my ego stroked. I'm a "mid-level" FO now (according to SWAPA) and with NEC, stock purchase, and PS I'll probably do $200k total this year. Probably going to block less then 550 for the year. Just turned a week of vacation into a month off, plus also have xmas and new years off. A senior FO with the same yearly TFP as me would be nearer to $300k. The pay delta between senior FO pay and junior CA pay is smaller then you might think due to seniority having a large effect on being able to increase your TFP.

Pilots asking about upgrade time at a destination airline don't get it. It's about total earnings, QQL, stability, and growth. SWA does well in all of these areas. Other airlines do well also. Choosing one airline over another means making tradeoffs. Assuming you have multiple offers, a pilot should consider the above factors and not worry about upgrade.


This.


Chasing a quick upgrade is short-sighted unless you're close to retirement age. Too many variables can change that forecast, both good and bad. One way to look at SWA's long upgrade times of late is this: odds are it will get better before it gets worse. I'm a mid-2016 hire and my money is on a 7-8 year upgrade for myself. (i live near a Jr base so commuting isn't a concern).


Side note: 3rd year FO here, block time in 365 is 680 but trending down as i work smarter, not harder, and I only need profit sharing to come in at 6% to get any cash back. This means I'll reach my $55k 415c limits having only been on 3rd year pay for half of the year. Not too shabby...

RJSAviator76
11-20-2018, 07:14 AM
That's all great and all, but you are fundamentally failing in your analysis in entirety as far as APC is concerned.

This is the APC Hierarchy of Needs:

1) Highest PUBLISHED HOURLY rate. This is the fundamental basis for any APC weenie measuring contest.

2) The shortest path to upgrade. The juniormost upgrade the better. If you can upgrade at 99.5% on your master seniority list, that's pure APC gold. It's the total time to 4th stripe that's paramount and the shortest timeframe always wins.

3) In order to reflect APC values the best, Southwest upgrades must be calculated as follows:
- you must use 50% on the master seniority list as your junior upgrade spot starting point.
- you must use 0% growth rate; advanced users may use other matrices such as ASM's to calculate growth rates. Using actual and/or projected hiring numbers to derive the pilot seniority list growth projection is highly frowned upon and not in line with the APC values.
- only Age 65 attrition is allowed to be considered.

4) APC Hierarchy of Needs always looks back in time to derive the APC-acceptable answer. For example, it is the gospel truth on APC that a newhire FO won't see ATL for 10 years. Conversely, no FO will upgrade in less than 15 years unless something drastic happens. Anything short of those values represents a miracle.

I am missing a few, and for that I apologize. I do hope that this provides a good starting point.

Hope this helps... :p

RJSAviator76
11-20-2018, 07:41 AM
For those who may not get it, my previous posts on this thread are completely satirical and meant as a goof.

I've gotten into a few debates over upgrade times and comensation package here, and I've provided my rationale, method, and math to support my conclusions. If anyone is interested, the search function is your friend. In short, Southwest compensation is about as free market as it gets.

Proximity is right on the money in his posts. I will add one more fundamental item that many seem to forget, and that's our scope. All Southwest Airlines passengers are flown by Southwest Airlines pilots, PERIOD. Taken for granted, but kinda eye-opening when you read other boards.

Upgrades are way towards the bottom of my list of priorities for similar reasons as others have mentioned, but that's just me.

ZapBrannigan
11-20-2018, 09:07 AM
For those who may not get it, my previous posts on this thread are completely satirical and meant as a goof.

I've gotten into a few debates over upgrade times and comensation package here, and I've provided my rationale, method, and math to support my conclusions. If anyone is interested, the search function is your friend. In short, Southwest compensation is about as free market as it gets.

Proximity is right on the money in his posts. I will add one more fundamental item that many seem to forget, and that's our scope. All Southwest Airlines passengers are flown by Southwest Airlines pilots, PERIOD. Taken for granted, but kinda eye-opening when you read other boards.

Upgrades are way towards the bottom of my list of priorities for similar reasons as others have mentioned, but that's just me.



Agree.

This is an enormous airline with an impressive domestic network. The only downside to not having an ďExpressĒ division is itís hard to get to places like Knoxville, Savannah, Syracuse, Burlington, Branson, Key West without a lengthy drive on one end. I have a dream that we will serve those cities with an Armada of A220s someday soon though. [emoji1]




Sent from my iPhone using Tapatalk

oldboyroy
11-20-2018, 12:45 PM
Again, what?
Do you seriously have zero reading comprehension? I never stated I work at SWA, and actually CLEARLY stated my information was from the in-house career fair and other posts on this forum. I do, in fact, fly for Endeavor, not something I'm hiding. SWA is a career goal. Something else I've made abundantly clear.
Troll? Read my post history.

Why SWA? Isnít Endeavor in-line with Delta? Iím not poking, just asking why SWA.

RJSAviator76
11-20-2018, 12:58 PM
Agree.

This is an enormous airline with an impressive domestic network. The only downside to not having an ďExpressĒ division is itís hard to get to places like Knoxville, Savannah, Syracuse, Burlington, Branson, Key West without a lengthy drive on one end. I have a dream that we will serve those cities with an Armada of A220s someday soon though. [emoji1]




Sent from my iPhone using Tapatalk



The ONLY downside indeed. As for A220... we can only hope. No SJS, but what an airplane!

PotatoChip
11-20-2018, 02:12 PM
Why SWA? Isnít Endeavor in-line with Delta? Iím not poking, just asking why SWA.

Itís always been by number one choice. Schedules, profitability, security, smart business decisions, cool people, and many friends there. Endeavor being in-line Delta means little to nothing, we have a ďDelta Guaranteed InterviewĒ, but itís not why Iím here. Delta has a great product, I just donít see myself there.

Burton78
11-20-2018, 02:48 PM
It’s always been by number one choice. Schedules, profitability, security, smart business decisions, cool people, and many friends there. Endeavor being in-line Delta means little to nothing, we have a “Delta Guaranteed Interview”, but it’s not why I’m here. Delta has a great product, I just don’t see myself there.

Good luck with your Endeavors (pun intended). I read your post and while I'd say its not necessarily accurate, I didn't see any intentional flame baiting in there, so I'm not quite sure why you were piled on like that. I hope you land your dream job. I think people on APC, or any social media outlet for that matter, get a little too emotional with anything they read. I'm guilty as charged on occassion as well. The next few years should be pretty interesting a SWA.

PotatoChip
11-20-2018, 03:36 PM
Good luck with your Endeavors (pun intended). I read your post and while I'd say its not necessarily accurate, I didn't see any intentional flame baiting in there, so I'm not quite sure why you were piled on like that. I hope you land your dream job. I think people on APC, or any social media outlet for that matter, get a little too emotional with anything they read. I'm guilty as charged on occassion as well. The next few years should be pretty interesting a SWA.

Thanks. It seems like folks like to add unnecessary tone and emotion to simple text... but clearly I donít know, lol. Too much CNN/Fox News.

dawgdriver
11-21-2018, 08:25 AM
Fewer retirements have ensured long upgrade times at WN but there was always ample income opportunity with premium open time. Is it true that senior guys are now slugging it out over straight pay due to over-staffing(?) Very unlike the lean old Southwest Trailways to overstaff and I'm hearing the hiring isn't slowing down in 2019. Temporary or is WN permanently moving to a traditional staffing model with more reserves? Ramping up for HI? Hoarding the dwindling number of pilots left out there? What is your management and/or union saying about conditions going forward?

SW is a great brand and stable place to work with its strong domestic focus and balance sheet but it's outgrown it's folksy-fun culture with size and corporate feel and like others, it's a job, and a demanding one from what I hear. Without the income potential to make up the ~$30/hour difference from legacy FO pay (years 1-4), I'm curious as to what SWA HR feels makes them competitive to the dwindling pool of candidates(?).

Flow through programs, wide bodies and quick upgrades ensure legacies are getting the lion share of regional guys, and what's left (ever-dwindling military/corporate) are lured by what appears ON PAPER to be better pay offered at Legacies and Freight. Even second tier ULCCs are offering ballpark compensation with better equipment, quicker upgrades, home every night, etc.

Again, the variable being income opportunity, just wondering whether WN management realizes they're no longer seen as the mid 2000's destination of choice and are trying to get what they can before word gets out.

No flame, honest questions.

ZapBrannigan
11-21-2018, 12:20 PM
I think youíre definitely in the ballpark.

The only thing I would add is that there is very weak junior manning (JA) language in the CBA. If you are assigned flying on a day off you will receive double time OR the rig, whichever is greater. If itís a holiday or youíre already flying for premium thereís really no benefit. You couldnít bid a trip that finished on December 23rd without being worried about being JAd into Christmas morning. And in 2016 the summer schedule for a lineholder was rarely what ended up happening. Was it lucrative? Sometimes. But it wasnít family friendly at all.

As a result a lot of pilots complained (rightfully so!) The union published the % increase of JAs year over year and the result was staggering. And it didnít even include extensions on the last day of flying or unscheduled overnights!

The company made a commitment to reduce JAs... which, in fairness they have done. I havenít been JAd at all this year for the first time in 5 years. Itís been awesome!

Of course the down side to that staffing improvement is a higher percentage of reserves, less premium, etc.

Hopefully after Hawaii starts and LAX opens they can start to right size the staffing so that the result is Ďfewerí JAs but still some
opportunity for premium flying for those who value the $ above the time off.


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flyguy81
11-21-2018, 12:53 PM
According to the Bobís in DAL theyíre also front loading the upgrades next year which should help a little with the overmanned FO situation. 400 upgrades by end of June with 100 more the remainder of 2019.

New hire classes are full through April due to reduced initial classes and new hire classes will ramp up the 2nd half of the year as upgrades taper off. Subject to change of course....

saab2000
11-21-2018, 03:23 PM
The company made a commitment to reduce JAs... which, in fairness they have done. I havenít been JAd at all this year for the first time in 5 years. Itís been awesome!

Of course the down side to that staffing improvement is a higher percentage of reserves, less premium, etc.

Hopefully after Hawaii starts and LAX opens they can start to right size the staffing so that the result is Ďfewerí JAs but still some
opportunity for premium flying for those who value the $ above the time off.


Sent from my iPhone using Tapatalk

But that's the whole juggling act of staffing. There's no perfect solution. Having lots of Open Time requires low staffing which will result in some extensions and J/As, which are unpopular with most folks.

I've only been JAd one time and that as an odd situation where I actually overnighted in my own house and then flew one leg at rig pay and flew home a few minutes later. It was gold for me and it was when MDW ran out of deicing fluid last winter. Very bizarre situation and I didn't love it, but I did enjoy the paycheck a month later.

The balancing act of overstaffing and understaffing is not easy (and your post doesn't imply that it is) and in the end someone will feel shorted no matter what happens.

Meanwhile, I just move up slowly and am very curious how the California flying will pan out, especially when Hawaii flying eventually comes online. Being just 21 months in I'm keen to see how those ETOPS captain bids go, with my LAX and OAK Capt. bids at the top of my list. I'm ready to pack pack up and move out west if it happens. ;)

I do think those ETOPS slots will go very junior and may surprise many folks. But I also talked with one guy (who is way senior to me and part of the merger/acquisition situation I'm not part of and very close to upgrade at SWA regardless of anything) who said he's taking first available, no matter what it looks like.

ZapBrannigan
11-21-2018, 03:28 PM
Pilots asking about upgrade time at a destination airline don't get it. It's about total earnings, QQL, stability, and growth. SWA does well in all of these areas. Other airlines do well also. Choosing one airline over another means making tradeoffs. Assuming you have multiple offers, a pilot should consider the above factors and not worry about upgrade.


I didnít want this paragraph to be buried in the thread because itís important. Sure, upgrade time is nice to know - but at a destination carrier itís nowhere near as important as it was at the regionals. Last I heard nearly 1000 pilots had bypassed upgrade at SWA.

That pretty much says it all.
(Well, it also says reserve is a pretty rough lifestyle here... but aside from that it says it all.)


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Proximity
11-21-2018, 07:37 PM
Again, the variable being income opportunity, just wondering whether WN management realizes they're no longer seen as the mid 2000's destination of choice and are trying to get what they can before word gets out.

All your points are good points, but some perspective is in order. Southwest was pretty much the top job in the mid 2000s due to BK contracts and no hiring anywhere else good. Right now Southwest still one of the best jobs, just not everyone's first choice anymore. Southwest is still right up there in desirability with the legacies and Fedex/UPS. I know a number of people who have been applying for years and would still jump at a chance to get hired here. The last in house job fair was sold out in a few minutes. So the demand to get hired at SWA still exists.

Management has realized that they weren't the only game in town and have done some things to address an area which was a problem, attrition in a pilot's first year. Their measures have probably helped, but the biggest thing reducing first year attrition is likely our 2016 contract.

I think the area where the next issues will be found will be the ETOPS bid groups for FOs. New hires aren't locked into ETOPS training if they choose that as their last choice. It's likely that the bottom of the ETOPS bid groups will be a constant churn of new hires making it difficult for the company to keep up with the training. I don't see the company making the ETOPS flying more attractive, so hopefully the solution will be something like new hires that take an ETOPS lock get a bonus or second year pay for their efforts.

2019 will likely be a very interesting year, I think we will know by summer if the company intends this staffing level to be the "new normal" or if this is just part of the normal ups and downs of finding the right staffing levels. The January vacancy already looks promising with many more CA vaccines than FO.

Smooth at FL450
11-22-2018, 06:08 AM
The January vacancy already looks promising with many more CA vaccines than FO.


I hope those Captains know vaccines aren't covered on the RP! ;-)

THEKERNALKLINK
11-22-2018, 04:47 PM
"I’ve given up on another fleet type but who knows."

What if the 79 shares a type commonality to the 73, the same way the 75 and 76 did....? I mean we can keep that overhead panel alive another 50 years! Make it a centurion piece of technology!

Smooth at FL450
11-23-2018, 06:18 AM
"Iíve given up on another fleet type but who knows."

What if the 79 shares a type commonality to the 73, the same way the 75 and 76 did....? I mean we can keep that overhead panel alive another 50 years! Make it a centurion piece of technology!


That's fine...greater than 175 seats will also reopen our pay rates for negotiation.

e6bpilot
11-23-2018, 06:29 AM
Lots going on in this thread.
The manning pinch that the FOs are in right now is temporary, but the solution is going to take a while. SWA doesnít staff for the peaks. If they intended to keep manning at this level, they would have been upgrading to match the hiring, but that hasnít happened. Despite what most captains will tell you, they are still getting plenty of premium open time during the busy periods and weekends. Pull an open time awards report for this weekend if you donít believe me. Paying a bunch of captains time and a half when they could upgrade a couple hundred FOs and thin the reserve ranks of guys sitting and getting paid makes no sense, but there you have it. We are hiring for something. Getting pilots on board is a long term proposition that requires months of recruiting and training. They will continue to stack bodies on the FO side until they pull the trigger on Hawaii and LAX.
There is a push out west for manning in January that coincides with a seasonal shift. When LAX opens in March or whenever they get around to it, it will begin to displace guys from west coast bases and open up a lot of movement in both seats. I certainly hope the advertised 400/500 upgrades does a little to right size the lump in the snake that we have in FO manning right now, but I am not holding my breath. Sounds like hiring is continuing unabated, so we will more than likely replace those 400 FOs with around 300 new hires prior to June, which really doesnít do much for the open time situation. Seniority is great...when you can use it for something.

As was mentioned above, half the threads on APC are guys measuring their cranks about how great their airline is...for them. A big buffet of QOL, pay, and different flying is a wonderful thing to complain about. SWA is what it is, and coming here thinking it will change is like staying with an abusive spouse. I have a great QOL, some money making flexibility and opportunity still despite the lack of open time in the right seat, and some great work rules.
I donít mind the occasional JA on my day off and even want them at times since I commute and my kids are older. What I do miss about them is the opportunity that they provide by creating extra flying in the system that is paid at a premium. I would love to see a better way to VOLUNTARILY pick up that flying at double time and some better language for paying double rigs.
Upgrade time is important to some and I get that. It will trend down here soon...itís just math. With dark skies ahead in the economy, though, it may be a bad time to count on those upgrades being there.

Botched
11-23-2018, 07:32 AM
With dark skies ahead in the economy, though, it may be a bad time to count on those upgrades being there.

This, sorry to back this up. In two years when the economy is doing a "correction" ask someone in the bottom 30% of the FO list at one of two particular legacies how they are feeling. Gotta plan long term and SWA can weather most storms, actually SWA thrives in these events.

dawgdriver
11-23-2018, 07:54 AM
Lots going on in this thread.
The manning pinch that the FOs are in right now is temporary, but the solution is going to take a while. SWA doesnít staff for the peaks. If they intended to keep manning at this level, they would have been upgrading to match the hiring, but that hasnít happened. Despite what most captains will tell you, they are still getting plenty of premium open time during the busy periods and weekends. Pull an open time awards report for this weekend if you donít believe me. Paying a bunch of captains time and a half when they could upgrade a couple hundred FOs and thin the reserve ranks of guys sitting and getting paid makes no sense, but there you have it. We are hiring for something. Getting pilots on board is a long term proposition that requires months of recruiting and training. They will continue to stack bodies on the FO side until they pull the trigger on Hawaii and LAX.
There is a push out west for manning in January that coincides with a seasonal shift. When LAX opens in March or whenever they get around to it, it will begin to displace guys from west coast bases and open up a lot of movement in both seats. I certainly hope the advertised 400/500 upgrades does a little to right size the lump in the snake that we have in FO manning right now, but I am not holding my breath. Sounds like hiring is continuing unabated, so we will more than likely replace those 400 FOs with around 300 new hires prior to June, which really doesnít do much for the open time situation. Seniority is great...when you can use it for something.

As was mentioned above, half the threads on APC are guys measuring their cranks about how great their airline is...for them. A big buffet of QOL, pay, and different flying is a wonderful thing to complain about. SWA is what it is, and coming here thinking it will change is like staying with an abusive spouse. I have a great QOL, some money making flexibility and opportunity still despite the lack of open time in the right seat, and some great work rules.
I donít mind the occasional JA on my day off and even want them at times since I commute and my kids are older. What I do miss about them is the opportunity that they provide by creating extra flying in the system that is paid at a premium. I would love to see a better way to VOLUNTARILY pick up that flying at double time and some better language for paying double rigs.
Upgrade time is important to some and I get that. It will trend down here soon...itís just math. With dark skies ahead in the economy, though, it may be a bad time to count on those upgrades being there.

Excellent post.

Thunder1
12-09-2018, 10:58 PM
Fewer retirements have ensured long upgrade times at WN but there was always ample income opportunity with premium open time. Is it true that senior guys are now slugging it out over straight pay due to over-staffing(?) Very unlike the lean old Southwest Trailways to overstaff and I'm hearing the hiring isn't slowing down in 2019. Temporary or is WN permanently moving to a traditional staffing model with more reserves? Ramping up for HI? Hoarding the dwindling number of pilots left out there? What is your management and/or union saying about conditions going forward?

SW is a great brand and stable place to work with its strong domestic focus and balance sheet but it's outgrown it's folksy-fun culture with size and corporate feel and like others, it's a job, and a demanding one from what I hear. Without the income potential to make up the ~$30/hour difference from legacy FO pay (years 1-4), I'm curious as to what SWA HR feels makes them competitive to the dwindling pool of candidates(?).

Flow through programs, wide bodies and quick upgrades ensure legacies are getting the lion share of regional guys, and what's left (ever-dwindling military/corporate) are lured by what appears ON PAPER to be better pay offered at Legacies and Freight. Even second tier ULCCs are offering ballpark compensation with better equipment, quicker upgrades, home every night, etc.

Again, the variable being income opportunity, just wondering whether WN management realizes they're no longer seen as the mid 2000's destination of choice and are trying to get what they can before word gets out.

No flame, honest questions.

Dawg,
Ive been at SWA almost 7 years and here is my take on your questions.
1) It is true that on the F/O side we are currently overstaffed and yes most of the open time has been going out at straight pay. However, if you live in domicile you can sit reserve at home and have a high probability of not being used that much. That is how I have been crediting an average of 155 TFP per month all year long. I think this is a temporary situation on the F/O overstaffing -- Hawaii ops coming online, maybe redeye flying, and I suspect some more domestic city pairs to be announced in 2019 as well maybe some increased near-international destinations. Also, according to my CP they are doing 600 Captain upgrades next year so that should smooth out some of the F/O overmanning, even though we are hiring 550 next year -- with ~150 retirements, increased vacation, and an uptick in sick calls you will see a net gain of Captains and net decrease of F/Os next year.

2) Your statement about the $30 per hour differential between SWA and Legacy is not an apples to apples comparison. Anyone that is just looking at the $ differential needs to sit down and talk with real pilots at each of the airlines. Work rules and rigs trump pay rates every day and SWA has good duty rigs that make the trips productive. Have to look at the whole picture. Each airline has their pros and cons. Here is the required one pilot data point for the APC d$ck measuring contest.
Me -- 7 year pay scale F/O, living in domicile, working smart-not hard, in 2018 my total compensation will be $345,000. (This includes the sum of TFP pay, 14.2% B-fund, estimated 10% profits sharing)
You ask what makes HR feel they are competitive -- well they are having no problem getting people to come to interviews and attrition to other airlines is WAY down from the 2015/2016 time frame.
Also, it has been my experience that every military pilot and civilian RJ pilot apples to multiple major carriers and will generally go with the first major airline that hires them. The number of pilots that end up with near simultaneous job offers from 2 or more majors is a small percentage of the pilot pool. Furthermore, a smart pilot looking at the whole picture will also take into account the financial strength of the company and Southwest is not lacking in that arena -- good thing to consider for the next recession that WILL happen at some point.

3) To each their own but SWA still is a very attractive destination for most pilots -- 11 domiciles to choose from and good trip flexibility working for a company that has never furloughed and has the best financials in the industry plus more growth on the horizon.

4) Bottom line: There is not a single major airline where you won't make great money -- Delta, American, United, Southwest, Alaska, JetBlue, FedEx, UPS. Money should be the least of your worries at any of the above airlines. Life is short -- focus on Quality of Life and you can maximize that by picking a domicile to live in and then living within your means, keep your first wife, surround yourself with a group of good friends and family and enjoy life. Cheers!

RJSAviator76
12-10-2018, 06:40 AM
Dawg,
Ive been at SWA almost 7 years and here is my take on your questions.
1) It is true that on the F/O side we are currently overstaffed and yes most of the open time has been going out at straight pay. However, if you live in domicile you can sit reserve at home and have a high probability of not being used that much. That is how I have been crediting an average of 155 TFP per month all year long. I think this is a temporary situation on the F/O overstaffing -- Hawaii ops coming online, maybe redeye flying, and I suspect some more domestic city pairs to be announced in 2019 as well maybe some increased near-international destinations. Also, according to my CP they are doing 600 Captain upgrades next year so that should smooth out some of the F/O overmanning, even though we are hiring 550 next year -- with ~150 retirements, increased vacation, and an uptick in sick calls you will see a net gain of Captains and net decrease of F/Os next year.

2) Your statement about the $30 per hour differential between SWA and Legacy is not an apples to apples comparison. Anyone that is just looking at the $ differential needs to sit down and talk with real pilots at each of the airlines. Work rules and rigs trump pay rates every day and SWA has good duty rigs that make the trips productive. Have to look at the whole picture. Each airline has their pros and cons. Here is the required one pilot data point for the APC d$ck measuring contest.
Me -- 7 year pay scale F/O, living in domicile, working smart-not hard, in 2018 my total compensation will be $345,000. (This includes the sum of TFP pay, 14.2% B-fund, estimated 10% profits sharing)
You ask what makes HR feel they are competitive -- well they are having no problem getting people to come to interviews and attrition to other airlines is WAY down from the 2015/2016 time frame.
Also, it has been my experience that every military pilot and civilian RJ pilot apples to multiple major carriers and will generally go with the first major airline that hires them. The number of pilots that end up with near simultaneous job offers from 2 or more majors is a small percentage of the pilot pool. Furthermore, a smart pilot looking at the whole picture will also take into account the financial strength of the company and Southwest is not lacking in that arena -- good thing to consider for the next recession that WILL happen at some point.

3) To each their own but SWA still is a very attractive destination for most pilots -- 11 domiciles to choose from and good trip flexibility working for a company that has never furloughed and has the best financials in the industry plus more growth on the horizon.

4) Bottom line: There is not a single major airline where you won't make great money -- Delta, American, United, Southwest, Alaska, JetBlue, FedEx, UPS. Money should be the least of your worries at any of the above airlines. Life is short -- focus on Quality of Life and you can maximize that by picking a domicile to live in and then living within your means, keep your first wife, surround yourself with a group of good friends and family and enjoy life. Cheers!

Careful Thunder, you just might take my APC SWA Pollyanna crown. :D

Thunder1
12-10-2018, 03:43 PM
Careful Thunder, you just might take my APC SWA Pollyanna crown. :D

RJS,

Guilty as charged...LOL, but you can keep the Crown.
Fly Safe!

Thunder1

dawgdriver
12-11-2018, 06:55 AM
Dawg,

Your statement about the $30 per hour differential between SWA and Legacy is not an apples to apples comparison. Anyone that is just looking at the $ differential needs to sit down and talk with real pilots at each of the airlines. Work rules and rigs trump pay rates every day and SWA has good duty rigs that make the trips productive. Have to look at the whole picture. Each airline has their pros and cons.

Thanks Thunder. You're right, the real money is in the work rules. For the sake of WN's ability to attract quality applicants, I hope folks are able to get this type of personal perspective. Hard to glean this kind of insight from a web search and since W-2s aren't available, uninformed applicants make decisions based on published pay scales.

Good stuff.

RJSAviator76
12-11-2018, 06:57 AM
Just about every year thereís a W-2 thread making its way around. Watch for one this month or you can start one under Majors.

ZapBrannigan
12-11-2018, 12:58 PM
We should just measure each otherís junk. Itíll be faster and more objective.


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hoover
12-11-2018, 02:31 PM
And just as easy to whip out in the cockpit

RJSAviator76
12-12-2018, 09:15 AM
I think the last year's W2 thread was a big eye-opener and a great source of information for many people. How often do you run into threads here or other forums asking the same old tired question of "how much can I realistically make the first year/second year/as a captain/as a senior FO/as a widebody FO/reserve..." etc?

Every pilot group out there has its overachievers, the lazies, the chronically fatigued, the forever disgruntled, etc. It's nice to see information from various sources and angles, and threads like that deliver answers to:

- anyone looking in wondering if they can make it the first year, whether it's worth it, or what financial sacrifices they may have to make to make it through the first x-years starting over. This applies to any level.

- current pilots wondering just how good or bad they have it and whether the grass is greener elsewhere, and getting a realistic compensation range.

For all you people who think that throwing out W-2's is measuring junk, what are your thoughts on Glassdoor? NBAA Salary Surveys? Pro Pilot Surveys? IBM/Stanton/Gallagher surveys? Is that measuring junk too?

Seeing W-2 information when compared to running numbers on APC calculators and seeing days worked/nights away from home actually highlights the importance of the combination of rates/work rules/rigs, etc.

Why do you guys consider sharing that kind of information to be "measuring junk"? I'd call it being educated, but that's just me.

ZapBrannigan
12-12-2018, 11:24 AM
Itís the difference between a professional publication, and APCís ďMy Dad could beat up your dad!Ē


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RJSAviator76
12-12-2018, 11:51 AM
It’s the difference between a professional publication, and APC’s “My Dad could beat up your dad!”


Sent from my iPhone using Tapatalk

Can you point me to a "professional publication" where someone can see everything, from outliers to regulars to lazies to players in the airline world? I've been following the various ALPA NC contract comparisons and while a tad more useful and detailed than APC calculators, don't tell the whole story, something that would have been useful to know from the outside looking in. For example, how do you quantify second-year rate for first-year guys? How would you explain that to a prospective new hire who just might be taking a pretty hefty paycut to come here and is trying to financially plan for it? What are the end results? What about legacies and widebodies? What are the realistic credit hours for those guys? Senior-manning or green-slips there? How about trip drops and compensation? A real-world ratio of work vs. pay vs. APC calculators?

How about explaining the value of profit sharing in the overall scheme of things? A line pilot just may be told... "Look at your proposed hourly rates... what are you complaining about?? Vote YES!" Don't you think it helps pattern bargaining for a Joe Q. Lineswine voter to have some end-result data from elsewhere?

No published contract comparison publication that I've seen breaks this down into that kind of a detail. The end results from individual pilots do.

flyguy81
12-12-2018, 09:53 PM
I donít mind it. Helps to see what peers are making on similar sized airplanes at different airlines. We are (DL, UA, AA, WN) all starting to negotiate new CBAís in the next 1-2 years.

Zard
12-13-2018, 06:19 AM
I donít mind it. Helps to see what peers are making on similar sized airplanes at different airlines. We are (DL, UA, AA, WN) all starting to negotiate new CBAís in the next 1-2 years.

Maybe ours will be signed by 2028.

flyguy81
12-13-2018, 10:48 AM
Maybe ours will be signed by 2028.

Hahaha. Retirements will start to peak at the legacies way before then. If we want to maintain our size or grow weíll need butts in the seats and a way to attract them given our lack of widebody aircraft and faster upgrade. Stalling isnít in managements best interest, IMO. Especially if the others sign significant gains and move the bar that much further.

KPer
12-13-2018, 01:51 PM
Hahaha. Retirements will start to peak at the legacies way before then. If we want to maintain our size or grow weíll need butts in the seats and a way to attract them given our lack of widebody aircraft and faster upgrade. Stalling isnít in managements best interest, IMO. Especially if the others sign significant gains and move the bar that much further.

Donít you think thatís a big reason why we are overstaffed now? Get ahead of the legacy retirements and weather pronlonged contract negotiations? Bulk of the new hires have been hired 2015-2018. They are starting to throttle back on hiring. Come 2020 all will be off probation and unlikely to leave even if negotiations get nasty. Better sit back and plan on not seeing a new contract until 2025. I can wait.

Thunder1
12-13-2018, 06:42 PM
Don’t you think that’s a big reason why we are overstaffed now? Get ahead of the legacy retirements and weather pronlonged contract negotiations? Bulk of the new hires have been hired 2015-2018. They are starting to throttle back on hiring. Come 2020 all will be off probation and unlikely to leave even if negotiations get nasty. Better sit back and plan on not seeing a new contract until 2025. I can wait.

My bet will be on a new TA to vote on by 1 Oct 2023. YMMV

Vote down the first one and get a second TA by 1 Oct 2024.

flensr
12-13-2018, 07:04 PM
Hahaha. Retirements will start to peak at the legacies way before then. If we want to maintain our size or grow weíll need butts in the seats and a way to attract them given our lack of widebody aircraft and faster upgrade. Stalling isnít in managements best interest, IMO. Especially if the others sign significant gains and move the bar that much further.

They're banking pilots (hedging, whatever) NOW to avoid having hiring pressure become a factor during contract negotiations.

flyguy81
12-13-2018, 07:09 PM
They're banking pilots (hedging, whatever) NOW to avoid having hiring pressure become a factor during contract negotiations.

By 2023 (I think) the big 3 are booting something like 700+ a year. Regionals are already hurting. Itís only going to get worse. Once LAX opens and HI starts weíll normalize a bit I think. Is that enough to cover the next 3-5 years? Who knows.

flensr
12-13-2018, 07:25 PM
Don’t you think that’s a big reason why we are overstaffed now? Get ahead of the legacy retirements and weather pronlonged contract negotiations? Bulk of the new hires have been hired 2015-2018. They are starting to throttle back on hiring. Come 2020 all will be off probation and unlikely to leave even if negotiations get nasty. Better sit back and plan on not seeing a new contract until 2025. I can wait.

Yes. Except I think any throttling is due to simple schedule shuffling to deal with upgrades and ETOPS. I'm convinced they'll bank as many pilots as possible.

filler

flensr
12-13-2018, 07:30 PM
By 2023 (I think) the big 3 are booting something like 700+ a year. Regionals are already hurting. Itís only going to get worse. Once LAX opens and HI starts weíll normalize a bit I think. Is that enough to cover the next 3-5 years? Who knows.

They're talking growth less than 5% and HI is 2.5-3%. With current retirement rates, you don't need 600-800 pilots per year to cover the "real" 2%ish growth rate over the next couple years. MAX may open up more international destinations to the South but then we'd be head to head with Spirit and others already doing that. I just don't see big growth ahead that matches our hiring rate. That's why I'm calling it a hedge or pilot bank. The hiring ahead of growth rates just gives the company a year or two buffer to drag out the contract while they try to break the union (like spirit and frontier), maybe even force it to arbitration. If F9 can't strike after the abuse they've suffered, we will never be released to strike no matter how good/bad things get. The pilot hedge just gives the company a few years to beat on us.

Proximity
12-13-2018, 07:50 PM
They're talking growth less than 5% and HI is 2.5-3%. With current retirement rates, you don't need 600-800 pilots per year to cover the "real" 2%ish growth rate over the next couple years.

For the growth rate to be as low as 2%, you'd need to see a large amount of 700 retirements, considering our MAX orders.

flyguy81
12-13-2018, 09:47 PM
For the growth rate to be as low as 2%, you'd need to see a large amount of 700 retirements, considering our MAX orders.

And I havenít seen any release of parking older jets for a few more years. Something is in the works with the training center expansion, etc. Epuldnt surprise me to see red eyes start. Would need a 3rd rsv shift to cover it.

bitatasg
12-14-2018, 03:41 AM
And I havenít seen any release of parking older jets for a few more years. Something is in the works with the training center expansion, etc. Epuldnt surprise me to see red eyes start. Would need a 3rd rsv shift to cover it.

I believe I read they are parking 10 700ís per year over the next 4-5 years and delivering 40-50 Maxís per year over the same time frame.

RJSAviator76
12-14-2018, 08:12 AM
Our retirements pick up around 2020 as well. We start retiring around 200+/year in 2020 due to age 65.

So, if we are completely stagnant, i.e. zero net change in schedule, how do we replace the retirements? Unlike our superior brothers and sisters at the legacies, we don't have the Express/Connection that we can outsource our flying to. So how, and at what ratio do we replace our retirements?

WhaleSurfing
12-14-2018, 09:42 AM
We should all probably start paying more attention to what's taking place in the economy right now then worrying about upgrades.

RJSAviator76
12-14-2018, 02:38 PM
We should all probably start paying more attention to what's taking place in the economy right now then worrying about upgrades.

What's going on in the economy aside from the Wall Street gamblers, pardon me, "investors" being "worried" about the price of tea in China? Should I take my 401k into cash and let these gambl... investors (sorry!) play with someone else's money?

flensr
12-14-2018, 06:41 PM
We should all probably start paying more attention to what's taking place in the economy right now then worrying about upgrades.

The economy is booming, unemployment at historic lows and energy prices are held up by demand, not lack of supply. That's great both short and long term.

If you're talking about the stock market instead, then that's a different thing entirely. The stock market has had a run up for quite a while and was overdue for at least some sort of correction. The political nonsense coming out of DC may be exaggerating the swings but the stock market is pretty much business as usual. Pick any 5-year period in history and the stock market is up like 95% of those 5-year periods, in spite of the crashes, corrections, etc etc.

When the stock market is down, that really just means that it's ON SALE so go get you some :) It'll go back up in spite of the "resistance" nonsense, just like it always does.

WhaleSurfing
12-14-2018, 06:50 PM
And yet DL lowered their outlook for 2019 based in part on a a declining consumer confidence.

I think I heard how great the economy was in 2007/2008 during the first part of the presidential election cycle. How'd that turn out?

flyguy81
12-14-2018, 07:16 PM
I believe I read they are parking 10 700ís per year over the next 4-5 years and delivering 40-50 Maxís per year over the same time frame.

Earlier this year Gary said we wouldnít start to retire -700ís until 2022 unless oil started trending higher. At which time the -7 Max orders should start ramping up. What he says and what happens....who knows

BigWillyCapt
12-14-2018, 07:26 PM
https://tenor.com/view/movie-time-movie-theater-watching-michael-jackson-gif-3579864

Botched
12-15-2018, 09:20 AM
https://tenor.com/view/movie-time-movie-theater-watching-michael-jackson-gif-3579864

post fail...

Squallrider
12-20-2018, 02:11 PM
95 captain openings on newest vacancy 🤔🤔🤔

WHACKMASTER
12-21-2018, 11:00 AM
95 captain openings on newest vacancy 🤔🤔🤔

Yup. Iíd expect that for the first half of the year.

Thunder1
12-21-2018, 07:10 PM
95 captain openings on newest vacancy 🤔🤔🤔

Yep -- SWAPA website shows 392 Captain upgrades from 1 Jan thru 31 May; with a total of 588 for the year planned.
It also shows 500 new hires for the year with only 156 of them in the first 5 months.

Should help with the F/O overmanning.

hoover
12-22-2018, 07:55 AM
Wondering how many will bypass so they aren't displaced to LAX ?

WestCoastHercs
12-22-2018, 11:16 AM
Or...
How junior is LAX going to be on the captain side?
I live local and have my captain bid just in case...
::cool:

How bad is life as the plug?
Saturday nights in Waikiki?

hoover
12-22-2018, 11:30 AM
If you live there and can upgrade years ahead of schedule I'd do it.
But that's me

at6d
12-22-2018, 01:42 PM
According to myseniority.com, As a late 2015 hire Iím at 55% on the FO side.

There will be 900 pilots senior to me retiring in the next 5 years.

Iím just over 1600 from the plug captain spot.

For a 2015 hire, itís reasonable that upgrades will be below 10 years.

saab2000
12-22-2018, 01:52 PM
I’m an early 2017 hire. I do predict upgrades will come down below ten years. Glad to see significant upgrades planned for 2019.

I’ve still got LAX and OAK ETOPS captain slots at the top of my bid sheet. If, shockingly, it were to happen sooner rather than later I would move out there.

That said, I’d guess there will be LAS and PHX F/Os who will get this earlier because those commutes aren’t that tough I’d guess.

But I’ll take first available even if it’s flying odd schedules to Hawaii.

Proximity
12-22-2018, 02:08 PM
For a 2015 hire, itís reasonable that upgrades will be below 10 years.

2014-2016 are in a good position, they benefited from the increasing ratio of pilots to airplanes. I'm predicting a 2015 hire will upgrade in 6-7 years. LAX is kind of a wildcard, if you are willing to take the seatlock I expect you would be able to upgrade 12-18 months earlier there then any other base.

However, the last pilot in what I consider the 2008-2010 bubble is still in the range of 800-900 numbers from the most junior captain, with almost 1000 bypassing FOs above them also. Upgrade in the near future will be no lower than ten years, with the strongly likelihood it will increase to 11-12 years.

flyguy81
12-22-2018, 04:24 PM
2014-2016 are in a good position, they benefited from the increasing ratio of pilots to airplanes. I'm predicting a 2015 hire will upgrade in 6-7 years. LAX is kind of a wildcard, if you are willing to take the seatlock I expect you would be able to upgrade 12-18 months earlier there then any other base.

However, the last pilot in what I consider the 2008-2010 bubble is still in the range of 800-900 numbers from the most junior captain, with almost 1000 bypassing FOs above them also. Upgrade in the near future will be no lower than ten years, with the strongly likelihood it will increase to 11-12 years.

Possible...I'd still wager that those living east of Denver won't desire a 4 hr commute to sit rsv to fly uncommutable ETOPS trips for a minimum of 6 months. So those guys will continue to bypass until they can hold a closer commute or not have to be on reserve. Once we get to the end of the 2008 hires, the upgrade will drop 2 yrs overnight.

e6bpilot
12-22-2018, 04:33 PM
Yeah no effing way I would take the seat lock and I commute from the central time zone. Those pairings look brutal for commutability. I have been to Hawaii. Itís cool, but I donít care to go back without the family.
I would bypass for however long it takes.

If I lived out there, I would do it in a heartbeat. The open time opportunities that running a Hawaii operation on a SWA budget are going to produce are going to be epic. They may even pay your tax bill!

Proximity
12-22-2018, 04:40 PM
Possible...I'd still wager that those living east of Denver won't desire a 4 hr commute to sit rsv to fly uncommutable ETOPS trips for a minimum of 6 months. So those guys will continue to bypass until they can hold a closer commute or not have to be on reserve. Once we get to the end of the 2008 hires, the upgrade will drop 2 yrs overnight.

Yah we will see. I'm figuring that most that will take an early upgrade there are willing to move there and commit to 12-24 months, thus making upgrade in LAX 1-2 years earlier than any other base. How many pilots really need to commute to be junior captains? If premium comes back for FOs, not many as the 1000 bypasses prove.

I predict the FO side in LAX will be a complete cluster******* and the company will be asking SWAPA for help to keep it staffed without constant turnover. I don't think the company is budgeting to run every new hire though ETOPS training just to have them bid out after 1-2 months.

2019 will be interesting for sure.

ZapBrannigan
12-22-2018, 05:06 PM
Saturday nights in Waikiki?


I heard the delay is that they canít find a Hyatt Place far enough from the beach.
[emoji1]



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Salukidawg
12-22-2018, 05:50 PM
Yah we will see. I'm figuring that most that will take an early upgrade there are willing to move there and commit to 12-24 months, thus making upgrade in LAX 1-2 years earlier than any other base. How many pilots really need to commute to be junior captains? If premium comes back for FOs, not many as the 1000 bypasses prove.

I predict the FO side in LAX will be a complete cluster******* and the company will be asking SWAPA for help to keep it staffed without constant turnover. I don't think the company is budgeting to run every new hire though ETOPS training just to have them bid out after 1-2 months.

2019 will be interesting for sure.

Premium? Thatís not coming back to either seat. They are still planning to replace most of the F/Oís that are upgrading next year. I donít see anything changing anytime soon on the Premium front, unless there is a one off polar vortex or some other similar event. The company has made it abundantly clear that it wants the manning model this way.

Proximity
12-22-2018, 06:52 PM
Premium? Thatís not coming back to either seat. They are still planning to replace most of the F/Oís that are upgrading next year. I donít see anything changing anytime soon on the Premium front, unless there is a one off polar vortex or some other similar event. The company has made it abundantly clear that it wants the manning model this way.

If the plan the company has given SWAPA is followed, we will go into summer with approx 250 less FOs then we currently have, yet summer 2019 is projected to break our previous block/flights per day metrics. In addition HI flying is not currently in the schedule, so those flights will on top of already record breaking plans. This should bring some relief to the overmanned FO side.

My thinking is that if the company truly wanted this level of manning, we would have seen way more upgrades, so that premium flying would be equally rare in either seat. However, what is happening is premium is still happening on the Captain side while the company carries all it's "extra" pilot as FOs. Look at the awards going into the holidays, lots of premium/VPF/JA for Captains, while the FO awards are a totally different picture. This tells us it's still cheaper to award premium and JA rather than carry more Captains and "kill" premium.

So why do we have so many FOs? If the company felt they didn't need all these pilots they could stop running classes at anytime. My guess is that they are taking a long term view and considering the training center capacity, ETOPS training/HI flying, future aircraft deliveries, and a possbile pilot shortage they plan to carry some extra pilots in the short term, but keep the extra pilots as FOs since overmanning costs more then premium.

WHACKMASTER
12-22-2018, 07:49 PM
I heard the delay is that they canít find a Hyatt Place far enough from the beach.
[emoji1]



Sent from my iPhone using Tapatalk

Bull$7it. Itís not the hotel brand thatís the issue. Itís finding a hotel in an industrial park. Thatís the problem...

flensr
12-22-2018, 08:28 PM
I heard the delay is that they canít find a Hyatt Place far enough from the beach.

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They found a Hyatt Place but there aren't any dumpsters you have to walk past to get there.

Zard
12-23-2018, 05:05 AM
I heard the delay is that they canít find a Hyatt Place far enough from the beach.
[emoji1]

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Thereís a Marriott Courtyard in Kaíawa. Itís only 25 miles from anything and takes 3 hours to get to from the airport. Iím sure weíll be there on 12 hour overnights.

Shoots, brah!

e6bpilot
12-23-2018, 06:59 AM
I heard the delay is that they canít find a Hyatt Place far enough from the beach.
[emoji1]



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Bingo!

I think these flights are going to be crewed by a lot of junior pilots in both seats and a lot of super senior stews.
Exception of course to existing OAK non commuters. No reason for those guys not to bid etops.

Smooth at FL450
12-23-2018, 10:59 AM
If a picture is worth a thousand words, this one should help explain why 10 year upgrades should soon/hopefully be a thing of the past

4083

CA1900
12-23-2018, 01:10 PM
I heard the delay is that they canít find a Hyatt Place far enough from the beach.

http://www.elegante-waikiki.com/

:D

Smooth at FL450
12-23-2018, 01:22 PM
http://www.elegante-waikiki.com/

:D

Not funny!!! Itís probably next to the Monarch-Waikiki

Squallrider
12-25-2018, 06:50 AM
If a picture is worth a thousand words, this one should help explain why 10 year upgrades should soon/hopefully be a thing of the past

4083

Idk unless the bottom falls out the guys at year 0 and 1 is about 4 years worth of upgrades alone

ZapBrannigan
12-25-2018, 07:09 AM
The shocking part is the FOs in years 10-13. Probably close to 1000 pilots if you added them all up. Eventually theyíll all decide to switch seats. That will slow things down quite a bit.


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RckyMtHigh
12-25-2018, 08:46 AM
Whoever the FO is at year 24 is my new hero!

ZapBrannigan
12-25-2018, 09:13 AM
Whoever the FO is at year 24 is my new hero!


Ya gotta kind of respect him. Bids whatever vacation he wants. Whatever days off he wants. Whatever line he wants. Bids premium and charters without ever wondering if he will get it. All that plus 5 weeks of vacation that he easily turns into 15-20 weeks. If money or ego isnít driving you to upgrade, then maybe this guy is on to something!


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ShyGuy
12-25-2018, 09:39 AM
Not all 20+ yr FO are by choice. I know a guy who couldnít pass upgrade and sticks it out as senior FO.

e6bpilot
12-25-2018, 09:42 AM
Not all 20+ yr FO are by choice. I know a guy who couldnít pass upgrade and sticks it out as senior FO.



That or canít hold a first class medical. The retirees that are FOs are usually for this reason.

ShyGuy
12-25-2018, 10:26 AM
Did that rule change? PIC were ATP with 1st class and SIC could have been Comm with 2nd class. Now everyone is ATP. Can FOs still just get a 2nd class every 12 mos for a 121 airline?

RJSAviator76
12-25-2018, 10:30 AM
Did that rule change? PIC were ATP with 1st class and SIC could have been Comm with 2nd class. Now everyone is ATP. Can FOs still just get a 2nd class every 12 mos for a 121 airline?



Absolutely.

at6d
12-25-2018, 11:24 AM
Did that rule change? PIC were ATP with 1st class and SIC could have been Comm with 2nd class. Now everyone is ATP. Can FOs still just get a 2nd class every 12 mos for a 121 airline?

Yes.

The captain is exercising the ATP during the flight hence the requirement.

Hiring requirements are different.

Tenacvols
12-26-2018, 07:01 AM
At age 60 FOís have to maintain a Class 1.

e6bpilot
12-26-2018, 10:44 AM
At age 60 FOís have to maintain a Class 1.



That is a fact.
Other than that, I think only FOs that fly augmented crews have to maintain a class 1, which definitely doesnít apply here. Someone with better knowledge can correct me if I am wrong.

KPer
12-26-2018, 05:19 PM
Once you get the job, skip the Class I until you are ready to upgrade. That advice comes directly from the SWAPA doctor. That EKG is very finicky. If it sees something it doesnít like the results are sent to FAA Aeromedical in OKC in near real-time and there is nothing your AME can do about it. Could cost you months of extra exams and tests to get you your medical back, and even then it might be a special issuance.

Get your EKG from your personal doctor if you are worried about it, and if there is something wrong with your ticker self report it to the FAA.

oldboyroy
12-27-2018, 09:38 AM
If a picture is worth a thousand words, this one should help explain why 10 year upgrades should soon/hopefully be a thing of the past

4083

Can you explain the colors of the chart, or explain it for a new guy. Thanks.

Fuseplug
12-27-2018, 09:41 AM
Light blue is FO, dark blue is CA.

Smokey23
12-27-2018, 10:23 AM
Whoever the FO is at year 24 is my new hero!


I would wager virtually every FO beyond about 16 yrs on that chart is former AirTran, late 50s to early 60s, and has concluded that it just isn't worth the QOL hit as they enter the twilight of their careers....a very sensible calculation. Anyone hired here right up to 9/11 has enough CA seniority in any domicile that the $$$/QOL argument to stay FO on an all narrow-body fleet just doesn't make sense.

Skyward
12-28-2018, 10:45 AM
Once you get the job, skip the Class I until you are ready to upgrade. That advice comes directly from the SWAPA doctor. That EKG is very finicky. If it sees something it doesnít like the results are sent to FAA Aeromedical in OKC in near real-time and there is nothing your AME can do about it. Could cost you months of extra exams and tests to get you your medical back, and even then it might be a special issuance.

Get your EKG from your personal doctor if you are worried about it, and if there is something wrong with your ticker self report it to the FAA.

Or find an AME that does a ďpracticeĒ EKG before the one that gets sent ;)

CommuterForLife
12-28-2018, 03:34 PM
Can you explain the colors of the chart, or explain it for a new guy. Thanks.

Hardly anyone (comparatively) was hired 5-9 years ago. Once those FOs upgrade - the upgrade times should drop dramatically. When you combine this with the fact that retirements start ramping up in 2021-2025 - the 2015 new hires will be looking at 6-8 year upgrade times. Add some growth (1200 airplanes is the stated goal from management) and I think 5-8 year upgrades will be the norm. Thus the reason for expanding the new training center already. They will be processing 1200-1300 combined new hires and CA upgrades through that training center by 2023. IMHO.

tm602
12-28-2018, 04:46 PM
If you're in the PHX area I advise going to Dr. Raniolo aerospacecardiology.com
He is a great AME and also a cardiology specialist so you'd have someone well versed in heart issues.

Salukidawg
12-29-2018, 07:38 AM
Hardly anyone (comparatively) was hired 5-9 years ago. Once those FOs upgrade - the upgrade times should drop dramatically. When you combine this with the fact that retirements start ramping up in 2021-2025 - the 2015 new hires will be looking at 6-8 year upgrade times. Add some growth (1200 airplanes is the stated goal from management) and I think 5-8 year upgrades will be the norm. Thus the reason for expanding the new training center already. They will be processing 1200-1300 combined new hires and CA upgrades through that training center by 2023. IMHO.

Yeah, 1200 Airplanes sounds great if thatís organic growth. Keep in mind that this management team has a habit of saying things that are interpreted one way and carried out in a much different fashion. Pilotís perspective ďWeíre going to grow to 1200 AirplanesĒ. Great, weíre going to need to hire a bunch of pilots and upgrades will go down. Managementís perspective. ďWeíre going to grow to 1200 AirplanesĒ. When do we let Wall Street know weíre acquiring Alaska, JetBlue, Hawaiian, etc. Gary Kelly has even said that WN buys another Airline on average once every 10 years or so. Just making sure that everyone keeps that in mind when trying to project upgrades in the future.

Proximity
12-29-2018, 02:25 PM
Y Gary Kelly has even said that WN buys another Airline on average once every 10 years or so.

I vote we buy Moxy so we can get the A220s.

Ronin47
12-29-2018, 09:23 PM
Yeah, 1200 Airplanes sounds great if thatís organic growth. Keep in mind that this management team has a habit of saying things that are interpreted one way and carried out in a much different fashion. Pilotís perspective ďWeíre going to grow to 1200 AirplanesĒ. Great, weíre going to need to hire a bunch of pilots and upgrades will go down. Managementís perspective. ďWeíre going to grow to 1200 AirplanesĒ. When do we let Wall Street know weíre acquiring Alaska, JetBlue, Hawaiian, etc. Gary Kelly has even said that WN buys another Airline on average once every 10 years or so. Just making sure that everyone keeps that in mind when trying to project upgrades in the future.

Ok, I'll bite. Staple to the bottom or dove tail the buyouts? Just conversation.

Salukidawg
12-30-2018, 01:27 PM
Ok, I'll bite. Staple to the bottom or dove tail the buyouts? Just conversation.

Iím not sure what youíre asking?:confused:

PNStoKLIT
12-30-2018, 04:22 PM
Iím not sure what youíre asking?:confused:

Think he is saying put all pilots from bought-out company to the bottom of of the senority list (staple to bot) or spread them out with corresponding DOH

Ronin47
12-30-2018, 06:02 PM
Think he is saying put all pilots from bought-out company to the bottom of of the senority list (staple to bot) or spread them out with corresponding DOH

Yes sir. Just conversation. I personally dont see a buyout anytime soon.

Salukidawg
12-31-2018, 08:17 AM
Think he is saying put all pilots from bought-out company to the bottom of of the senority list (staple to bot) or spread them out with corresponding DOH

Iím not touching that. Fair and equitable can mean two different things depending on whether your Airline is the acquirer or the acquirie.

PDTGIMP
12-31-2018, 09:29 AM
This is what Gary Kelly actually told Wall Street:

(Earnings Call Q2 2018):

Gary C. Kelly - Southwest Airlines Co.

"Well, Duane, I think it's very fair to say that our primary focus is investing in Southwest Airlines. This year in particular we've got a lot of our major strategic initiatives behind us. There's always work to do. But, in particular, here in 2018 and my hope is 2019 and 2020, we're really focused on the quality and the cost-effectiveness of our operation, the hospitality of our customer service, those very basic things. We want to continue to grow the airline. We've got wonderful opportunities to grow. And the tax reform, obviously, is a nice little boost to our sources of financing.

So there's no imperative that we need to be hunting for an acquisition. I think that that's different than where we were in the late 2000s; 2009, 2010. And clearly this is our priority is just to grow organically. Having said that, we've always got to have our eyes open and be thinking about how we can improve shareholder value, and if there is a good opportunity in our view, it's something that we'll take a look at. We're always thinking about that, but admittedly that is not a focus and clearly not a focus right now."

I don't think we are buying anyone anytime soon, unless we got a sweetheart deal...at least not in the near term.

Salukidawg
12-31-2018, 09:52 AM
Define sweetheart deal. FL was cutting into our margins on the East Coast and at BWI and MDW specifically. Fast forward nearly ten years and AS is doing the same in all of California and soon to Hawaii. Iím not saying that WN is buying anyone necessarily, Iím just saying, the parallels are very similiar thatís all.

PDTGIMP
12-31-2018, 10:07 AM
Stock valuation:

(NYSE: AAI), the former parent company of AirTran Airways (AirTran). Based on the average of Southwest Airlines' closing prices for the 20 trading days ending three trading days prior to May 2, 2011, of $11.90, the transaction valued AirTran common stock at approximately $7.57 per share. (press release; SWA investor relations)

Today's closing price, last day of 2018, for Alaska Air Group (ALK: NYSE): $60.33

That is quite a premium. Now, if ALK was trading at a few times earnings and on Jim Cramer's "Wall of Shame" as AAI was in 2010....or Hawaiian, etc....I agree.

All of these stocks have valuations too high....and Spirit is up 20% this year.

IF in the middle of a recession and these stocks trade for single digit multiples...maybe we make a bid...then there is DOJ anti trust variables....a risk for a carrier with a large domestic presence...unknown what they will do (even in a Republican Administration) ((DOJ tried to block Time Warner/AT&T under Trump))...SWA doesn't like paying break up fees....AAI concentrated in Atlanta....we didn't serve ATL at all, so little anti-trust overlap, depsite build up in MKE and BWI...

Zard
12-31-2018, 10:15 AM
Other than a bunch of planes and knocking off a competitor in CA/west coast (if the DOJ wojld even let that happen), is there anything that gobbling up AS buys us more effectively than just growing organically?

SEA base would be nice. Alaska flying would be cool. Ifs and buts and all that.

I donít think we buy anyone until the next economic nosedive when airline stocks are in the tank again. Everything is way too pricy right now.

e6bpilot
12-31-2018, 10:21 AM
Stock valuation:

(NYSE: AAI), the former parent company of AirTran Airways (AirTran). Based on the average of Southwest Airlines' closing prices for the 20 trading days ending three trading days prior to May 2, 2011, of $11.90, the transaction valued AirTran common stock at approximately $7.57 per share. (press release; SWA investor relations)

Today's closing price, last day of 2018, for Alaska Air Group (ALK: NYSE): $60.33

That is quite a premium. Now, if ALK was trading at a few times earnings and on Jim Cramer's "Wall of Shame" as AAI was in 2010....or Hawaiian, etc....I agree.

All of these stocks have valuations too high....and Spirit is up 20% this year.

IF in the middle of a recession and these stocks trade for single digit multiples...maybe we make a bid...then there is DOJ anti trust variables....a risk for a carrier with a large domestic presence...unknown what they will do (even in a Republican Administration) ((DOJ tried to block Time Warner/AT&T under Trump))...SWA doesn't like paying break up fees....AAI concentrated in Atlanta....we didn't serve ATL at all, so little anti-trust overlap, depsite build up in MKE and BWI...



Spot on analysis.
Gary is no friend of labor, but he knows how to run an airline and the finances that go with it. He also is a master of talking out of both sides of his mouth during investor meetings.
Wait until the next round of recession leading to near bankruptcies and consolidation. Once some airlines with huge debt are on the ropes, that is when Southwest will go shopping again. I personally think Alaska is too expensive. Their purchase of VA was a huge poison pill that SWA may not be willing to swallow.

Salukidawg
12-31-2018, 11:21 AM
I donít disagree with anything you guys have said. I also agree that the purchase, (if there is another one) would be timed for the next recession. I was more or less just speculating on who the next target might be, not the specific timing of such a transaction. Hereís to lots of organic growth for as long as it lasts.

LennyAlanMcHifi
12-31-2018, 02:33 PM
This might be a dumb question, but has Southwest ever had serious discussions about an additional fleet type?

flensr
12-31-2018, 04:14 PM
This might be a dumb question, but has Southwest ever had serious discussions about an additional fleet type?

I figured GK was dead serious when he said SWA would be 737 only as long as he was CEO. I don't remember when/where he said it but it was a clear and forceful statement at the time.

Ihateusernames
01-02-2019, 02:16 PM
I figured GK was dead serious when he said SWA would be 737 only as long as he was CEO. I don't remember when/where he said it but it was a clear and forceful statement at the time.



I heard the new revenue guy (Waterso) say he wants big metal but higher ups donít want it. He then went on to say...they would t be here forever. That was about 3-4 years ago. Same time he forecasted a 12,000 pilot group in about a 5 year period. That part seems to be coming true. I donít think Tom Nelon (so) wasnít brought on for anything but growth when Kelly calls it quits after Hawaii launch.


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WHACKMASTER
01-02-2019, 05:25 PM
I heard the new revenue guy (Waterso) say he wants big metal but higher ups donít want it. He then went on to say...they would t be here forever. That was about 3-4 years ago. Same time he forecasted a 12,000 pilot group in about a 5 year period. That part seems to be coming true. I donít think Tom Nelon (so) wasnít brought on for anything but growth when Kelly calls it quits after Hawaii launch.


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All true. Watersson was instrumental in the international expansion of Hawaiian with the widebodies (he was actually head of route planning I believe). Heís made public comments about wanting bigger airframes and that he can even find a place for them in our current route structure.

flensr
01-02-2019, 06:20 PM
So maybe we're getting the max-9? Daring move. (haha)

WHACKMASTER
01-02-2019, 07:23 PM
So maybe we're getting the max-9? Daring move. (haha)

Yeah, earth shattering for sure. In all seriousness, weíll end up getting the 797. Itís supposed to come out in the middle of next decade and has our name written all over it.

flensr
01-03-2019, 01:14 PM
Yeah, earth shattering for sure. In all seriousness, weíll end up getting the 797. Itís supposed to come out in the middle of next decade and has our name written all over it.

We won't get it unless it has a full complement of those heavy long-throw switches populating the overhead panel switch forest. And we probably won't buy the AOA indicator until someone else crashes one.

Proximity
01-24-2019, 08:25 AM
From the Q4 earnings press release it looks like 20 NG aircraft will retire in 2019, which is higher than I anticipated. Expecting to end the year with 775 aircraft.

HandFlyTo400
01-24-2019, 03:35 PM
I heard the new revenue guy (Waterso) say he wants big metal but higher ups donít want it. He then went on to say...they would t be here forever. That was about 3-4 years ago. Same time he forecasted a 12,000 pilot group in about a 5 year period. That part seems to be coming true. I donít think Tom Nelon (so) wasnít brought on for anything but growth when Kelly calls it quits after Hawaii launch.


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Watterson stated his desire directly to my UG class in Ď15. When one of us asked why upper management didnít want aircraft larger than the -800/Max8, he said they were afraid Wall Street would balk at the idea.

Duke Beamer
01-26-2019, 09:40 PM
Just ran some numbers and 7 year upgrades are now part of the equation. It depends on how many FOs continue to bypass as well as how junior LAX goes, but with 480-540 upgrades per year, that will really open some things up on the upgrades.


And, I'm fully expecting us to jump on the 797 when it gets announced. Watterson has already drawn up plans for expansion and a network including a different airframe. He loves the 787 and the 321 NEO. Current leadership doesn't want to go down that road if the profits will remain the same, but the liabilities will increase. They're comfortable with the all 737 fleet.

RJSAviator76
01-28-2019, 10:58 AM
Just ran some numbers and 7 year upgrades are now part of the equation. It depends on how many FOs continue to bypass as well as how junior LAX goes, but with 480-540 upgrades per year, that will really open some things up on the upgrades.


Depending on what goes on next year and with LAX, 2014-2016 hires will probably see a 6-year upgrade, or possibly lower if the LAX base ends up with non-commutable lines making a 3-day trip be a 5-day event for commuters with a 6-month lock for good measure...

ZapBrannigan
01-28-2019, 11:08 AM
Iím early 2014 and still 1000+ from the most junior Captain. What that number doesnít reflect though is over 860+ first officers who are bypassing - meaning theyíre senior enough to hold captain but have chosen not to. (Most likely waiting for a domicile or to be off reserve) So the Ďrealí number is about 1800 numbers away.
Hereís the retirement numbers that reflect how long it will take to work through those 1800 pilots.
https://uploads.tapatalk-cdn.com/20190128/b66dc8fcfb93872e19f7ef6790286df4.jpg



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RJSAviator76
01-28-2019, 11:15 AM
Great! Now check out SWAPA website and get the real-time number that includes the individual bid preference numbers.

SWAPA Main > Committees > Schedule Research > Vacancy > Individual Vacancy View

ZapBrannigan
01-28-2019, 11:19 AM
Great! Now check out SWAPA website and get the real-time number that includes the individual bid preference numbers.



SWAPA Main > Committees > Schedule Research > Vacancy > Individual Vacancy View



I think thatís artificial though. For example I have my current domicile and right seat set as my number one preference to prevent a Ďsurprise!í upgrade to somewhere I donít want to be.

If other people did the same thing to protect themselves against an unwanted upgrade arenít those numbers kind of bologna?


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RJSAviator76
01-28-2019, 11:21 AM
Just curious, what does yours say?

Proximity
01-28-2019, 11:26 AM
I think thatís artificial though.

I agree for the reasons you state but I'm still curious what your number is.

I actually bid like you (FO in my current domicile), but after this new report came out I changed my bid to more accurately reflect what I'd truly accept. I assume you'd take the left seat in domicile...

For me, mid 2016 hire, 12xx ahead of me.

Burton78
01-28-2019, 11:27 AM
I think thatís artificial though. For example I have my current domicile and right seat set as my number one preference to prevent a Ďsurprise!í upgrade to somewhere I donít want to be.

If other people did the same thing to protect themselves against an unwanted upgrade arenít those numbers kind of bologna?


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Were the 6 month upgrades at DL artificial due to countless people bypassing the "opportunity" to fly a Mad dog out of LGA?


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Proximity
01-28-2019, 11:33 AM
Were the 6 month upgrades at DL artificial due to countless people bypassing the "opportunity" to fly a Mad dog out of LGA?

Short answer, yes, and that happened in only one bid.

Upgrade will likely be faster at Delta then Southwest due to retirements and lower category airplanes. A more fair comparison would be when can you hold the left seat of the A320 or B737 at Delta over the last couple bids. I'm guessing that's currently in the range of 4-6 years at Delta, not less than a year.

Burton78
01-28-2019, 11:45 AM
Short answer, yes, and that happened in only one bid.

Upgrade will likely be faster at Delta then Southwest due to retirements and lower category airplanes. A more fair comparison would be when can you hold the left seat of the A320 or B737 at Delta over the last couple bids. I'm guessing that's currently in the range of 4-6 years at Delta, not less than a year.



That's not what I said at all.

I'm not denying that DL peeps can potentially upgrade faster, but saying your distance from junior captain is artificial is not necessarily true.


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ZapBrannigan
01-28-2019, 12:59 PM
Ok.. what am I looking at? The ďtotalĒ number at the bottom?

That shows in the neighborhood of 730 right now.

at6d
01-28-2019, 01:47 PM
Iím a late 2015 hire. My SWAPA deal shows just over 1000.

Proximity
01-28-2019, 02:11 PM
That's not what I said at all.

I'm not denying that DL peeps can potentially upgrade faster, but saying your distance from junior captain is artificial is not necessarily true.



Now I'm confused. We're talking about the SWAPA Individual Vacancy View...which has a number that shows how many First Officers are bidding Captain who are also senior to you.

The reason we hypothesize that the number is artificial is that some First Officers don't bid captain for various reasons until they are near upgrade, but will still end up go ahead of you, thus not making the number a true representations of when you will upgrade.

Is that what you're saying is not true, or is it something else I'm missing?

Burton78
01-28-2019, 03:32 PM
Now I'm confused. We're talking about the SWAPA Individual Vacancy View...which has a number that shows how many First Officers are bidding Captain who are also senior to you.



The reason we hypothesize that the number is artificial is that some First Officers don't bid captain for various reasons until they are near upgrade, but will still end up go ahead of you, thus not making the number a true representations of when you will upgrade.



Is that what you're saying is not true, or is it something else I'm missing?



I think everyone understands that. I'm speaking about myseniority.com and the distance from junior captain. My DL example was just to say that he/she actually held captain at 6 months despite the fact that many people senior bypassed. There's nothing artificial about it. Being X amount below the most junior captain is just what it is and is a real thing. I guess I just don't think that assuming similar bypass ratios in the future is unreasonable.

If you're just referring to the SWAPA. Individual Vacancy, I agree it's fairly worthless.


I quoted the wrong post, so I see the confusion. My bad!!!

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Burton78
01-28-2019, 03:43 PM
Deleted....

ZapBrannigan
01-29-2019, 03:48 AM
When the whole seniority list is moving up quickly i think itís reasonable to see people holding off until they can hold their preferred domicile or even waiting until they can be off reserve in the left seat. But if the music stops and the seniority progression halts OR if a merger is announced I think youíll see all 900 bypassers racing to the left seat as fast as they can.



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RJSAviator76
01-29-2019, 04:56 AM
When the whole seniority list is moving up quickly i think itís reasonable to see people holding off until they can hold their preferred domicile or even waiting until they can be off reserve in the left seat. But if the music stops and the seniority progression halts OR if a merger is announced I think youíll see all 900 bypassers racing to the left seat as fast as they can.



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And then watch... no movement - youíre stuck. You can be senior but you wonít be able to displace someone currently a captain back to the right seat because youíve had enough of kernels and you get a wild hair for the left seat with no vacancy available. Itís all a calculated risk.

Also, ask yourself... if the music stopped right this minute, would you rather commute to LAX and be a bottom reserve captain or would you stay in your domicile and drive to work as a senior FO?

ZapBrannigan
01-29-2019, 05:14 AM
Amen to that. At least until the kiddo goes off to college. After that maybe Iíll take the commute.


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Proximity
01-29-2019, 07:05 AM
I guess I just don't think that assuming similar bypass ratios in the future is unreasonable.

Agreed, there will always be bypassers. Assume everything stays the same, 60% overall seniority will get you in the left seat. However there are two (maybe three) factors in play this year, one is the "overmanning" that might push hold outs to upgrade, one is the opening of LAX (may be very undesirable). The third is a possbile recession, which could also push upgrade senior.

Skyward
01-29-2019, 08:21 AM
There will always be the FOs for life also that have no plans of ever upgrading for whatever reason (age, qol, another business, health, etc.). I wonder if we have any (or how many) below 60 that could upgrade but are concerned about holding a First Class...

Thereís no way to know how many are permanent right-seaters, but Iím sure there are a few.

at6d
01-29-2019, 12:09 PM
One reason to upgrade when able is medical. If you go out on medical itís better to be on the left seat payscale.

Still, commuting sucks.

eppnet
02-01-2019, 04:37 AM
Iím an early 2017 hire. I do predict upgrades will come down below ten years. Glad to see significant upgrades planned for 2019.

Iíve still got LAX and OAK ETOPS captain slots at the top of my bid sheet. If, shockingly, it were to happen sooner rather than later I would move out there.

That said, Iíd guess there will be LAS and PHX F/Os who will get this earlier because those commutes arenít that tough Iíd guess.

But Iíll take first available even if itís flying odd schedules to Hawaii.

What is the PHX FO movement and lifestyle like? Any FO's based in PHX out there? I am not as concerned with upgrading as I am with QOL. What can I expect the 1st couple years as an FO there?

PowerShift
02-01-2019, 06:17 AM
What is the PHX FO movement and lifestyle like? Any FO's based in PHX out there? I am not as concerned with upgrading as I am with QOL. What can I expect the 1st couple years as an FO there?

Spring 2017 hire here. PHX based. About 120 folks below me, around 420 FOís total. PHX culture is OK, lots of good guys here. The pilot lounge has a ďpublic libraryĒ feel to it. Everyone keeps to themselves and it very quiet. MDW was more like the old sitcom Cheers, ď Hey NormĒ.

Salukidawg
02-01-2019, 06:48 AM
In PHX, you donít speak unless spoken to soldier. Now make sure you shine up those shoes before going back up into the Terminal. Dismissed.

ZapBrannigan
02-01-2019, 09:20 AM
In PHX, you donít speak unless spoken to soldier. Now make sure you shine up those shoes before going back up into the Terminal. Dismissed.


When they say in the briefing, ďif you see anything you donít like, speak up.Ē Donít believe it. Youíll get anonymous texts from their squadron mates. [emoji849]


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at6d
02-01-2019, 10:52 AM
Interesting. Havenít heard that one before.

Psycho18th
02-02-2019, 05:05 AM
Summer 17 guy here in PHX. movement was pretty quick with all the hiring. Off reserve within a couple months. I bounce between regular and blank lines now. That will vary wildly with hiring, the LA base, etc I assume. Havenít flown with any jerks yet. Donít know why youíd want to hang out in the lounge if not commuting, but everyoneís been as friendly and talkative as they were in OAK and LAS.

eppnet
02-05-2019, 04:12 PM
How soon can a new FO hold PHX? How many days month are you getting called into fly on reserve as a new FO? Once you hold a line how many days a month are you away sleeping in a hotel? What are the trips like out of PHX?

I know there are a lot of variables but any insight is appreciated.

7three7
02-05-2019, 04:29 PM
How soon can a new FO hold PHX? How many days month are you getting called into fly on reserve as a new FO? Once you hold a line how many days a month are you away sleeping in a hotel? What are the trips like out of PHX?

I know there are a lot of variables but any insight is appreciated.

3 months give or take.... Reserves arenít being fully utilized currently. If you like you can trade reserve for trips with lineholders and/or just trade your reserve away. Minimum days off is 15 on Reserve with the average being 17 days as a Lineholder. No international out of PHX. Welcome Aboard...

flensr
02-05-2019, 08:25 PM
3 months give or take.... Reserves arenít being fully utilized currently. If you like you can trade reserve for trips with lineholders and/or just trade your reserve away. Minimum days off is 15 on Reserve with the average being 17 days as a Lineholder. No international out of PHX. Welcome Aboard...

I got PHX 3-4 months in, but that was 8 months ago. It's not the most junior base but there is enough movement that junior FOs can get in fairly quickly.

flensr
02-05-2019, 08:31 PM
How soon can a new FO hold PHX? How many days month are you getting called into fly on reserve as a new FO? Once you hold a line how many days a month are you away sleeping in a hotel? What are the trips like out of PHX?

I know there are a lot of variables but any insight is appreciated.

On reserves as a first year guy in PHX, I would pretty much always get called to fly on my first and second reserve blocks of the month. Third and later reserve blocks, I'd usually fly if I preferenced fly and sit if I preferenced pass.

An awarded line for a first year FO is quite often weekend flying, just like a first year reserve line will be weekend reserve. Mostly 3 day trips with 3 days off. Turns tend to get bid by senior pilots living in base so expect all of your trips to be away from base for the first few years at least. Even first year pilots are gonna get 15 days off unless they pick up additional trips.

Weekend reserves is pretty much the standard for first year. That said, it's not all bad. This Feb because flying is so thin, I cleared my entire schedule out, all 4 weekend reserve blocks. Gone. Yea I probably won't be able to pick up much, but I didn't want to sit weekend reserve so I put them up for give-away and every single weekend went away, poof. It's not always like that but right now flying is thin enough that you may be able to give away anything you don't like and roll the bones on trying to pick up stuff you DO like.

And of course, min guarantee applies. If you don't want to play the game, you fly your line and ka-ching cash your check.

SkyJunky
02-05-2019, 09:46 PM
On reserves as a first year guy in PHX, I would pretty much always get called to fly on my first and second reserve blocks of the month. Third and later reserve blocks, I'd usually fly if I preferenced fly and sit if I preferenced pass.

An awarded line for a first year FO is quite often weekend flying, just like a first year reserve line will be weekend reserve. Mostly 3 day trips with 3 days off. Turns tend to get bid by senior pilots living in base so expect all of your trips to be away from base for the first few years at least. Even first year pilots are gonna get 15 days off unless they pick up additional trips.

Weekend reserves is pretty much the standard for first year. That said, it's not all bad. This Feb because flying is so thin, I cleared my entire schedule out, all 4 weekend reserve blocks. Gone. Yea I probably won't be able to pick up much, but I didn't want to sit weekend reserve so I put them up for give-away and every single weekend went away, poof. It's not always like that but right now flying is thin enough that you may be able to give away anything you don't like and roll the bones on trying to pick up stuff you DO like.

And of course, min guarantee applies. If you don't want to play the game, you fly your line and ka-ching cash your check.



Great info... thx for that.

Skyward
02-06-2019, 06:08 AM
How soon can a new FO hold PHX? How many days month are you getting called into fly on reserve as a new FO? Once you hold a line how many days a month are you away sleeping in a hotel? What are the trips like out of PHX?

I know there are a lot of variables but any insight is appreciated.



I almost never did any reserve at all even as a new guy. I was in a different base though, but I could always trade my rsv for a trip or give it away completely if I wanted to. Reserve pays though if you live in base... your pay only goes up if they use you

eppnet
02-06-2019, 04:11 PM
On reserves as a first year guy in PHX, I would pretty much always get called to fly on my first and second reserve blocks of the month. Third and later reserve blocks, I'd usually fly if I preferenced fly and sit if I preferenced pass.

An awarded line for a first year FO is quite often weekend flying, just like a first year reserve line will be weekend reserve. Mostly 3 day trips with 3 days off. Turns tend to get bid by senior pilots living in base so expect all of your trips to be away from base for the first few years at least. Even first year pilots are gonna get 15 days off unless they pick up additional trips.

Weekend reserves is pretty much the standard for first year. That said, it's not all bad. This Feb because flying is so thin, I cleared my entire schedule out, all 4 weekend reserve blocks. Gone. Yea I probably won't be able to pick up much, but I didn't want to sit weekend reserve so I put them up for give-away and every single weekend went away, poof. It's not always like that but right now flying is thin enough that you may be able to give away anything you don't like and roll the bones on trying to pick up stuff you DO like.

And of course, min guarantee applies. If you don't want to play the game, you fly your line and ka-ching cash your check.


How long for an FO to Upgrade in PHX? Is there a lot of movement in PHX? How does it compare to other domiciles? Is PHX considered junior?

at6d
02-06-2019, 09:56 PM
How long for an FO to Upgrade in PHX? Is there a lot of movement in PHX? How does it compare to other domiciles? Is PHX considered junior?

Phoenix is senior for captains. Most new hires seem to go to BWI or OAK. Junior captain in PHX was hired in 2008 I think.

Squallrider
02-08-2019, 11:11 AM
Phoenix is senior for captains. Most new hires seem to go to BWI or OAK. Junior captain in PHX was hired in 2008 I think.

Mdw has been getting a lot of new hires too...all subject to change with lax opening

Ssnspoon
02-12-2019, 02:17 PM
Outburst?? What? What I said was pretty simply stated.
As to having 1000 pilots blow you, congratulations!

:rolleyes:

at6d
02-18-2019, 12:36 PM
Iíve been hearing speculation that upgrade times will come down to the 7 year mark or less in 2020, and many seem to think that LAX will go junior.

Thoughts?

Proximity
02-18-2019, 01:23 PM
Iíve been hearing speculation that upgrade times will come down to the 7 year mark or less in 2020, and many seem to think that LAX will go junior.

Thoughts?

Well looking at the seniority list, upgrade in 2020 is either going to be 9 years or move, or 6 years or less. Take a look at how many were hired in 2012 & 2013...not many.

The big question is will those hired in 08-11 be interested in bidding LAX, or are they so close to holding the left seat in the base they want or happily bypassing already that they bypass LAX. Supposedly around 70 current Captains live within driving distance of LAX, and probably 2 bids will be enough for them to bid in. After that, we will see how interested FOs are in upgrading in LAX and taking the seat lock.



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