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Sliceback
11-18-2018, 08:44 PM
Actually mid Nov 2018 to mid Nov 2019 and mid 2020 but it is close enough.

Base (current size) CA/FO retirements

2019 2020

BOS - 260 4/2 10/1

CLT - 1453 78/11 78/20

DCA - 541 18/2 26/1

DFW - 2933 84/27 111/44

LAX - 1888 44/13 64/16

LGA - 1352 26/2 34/5

MIA - 2185 40/3 72/13

ORD - 1031 32/9 30/11

PHL - 1308 73/12 61/11

PHX - 709 26/4 28/5


Lots of retirements which, overall, should provide opportunity to get to the base of your choice. And overall the pace of opportunity should accelerate as retirements increase. The next 8 yrs (2019-2026) are - (all +) - 600, 700, 800, 800, 900, 900, 900, 900.


Sniper66
11-18-2018, 09:46 PM
Actually mid Nov 2018 to mid Nov 2019 and mid 2020 but it is close enough.

Base (current size) CA/FO retirements

2019 2020

BOS - 260 4/2 10/1

CLT - 1453 78/11 78/20

DCA - 541 18/2 26/1

DFW - 2933 84/27 111/44

LAX - 1888 44/13 64/16

LGA - 1352 26/2 34/5

MIA - 2185 40/3 72/13

ORD - 1031 32/9 30/11

PHL - 1308 73/12 61/11

PHX - 709 26/4 28/5


Lots of retirements which, overall, should provide opportunity to get to the base of your choice. And overall the pace of opportunity should accelerate as retirements increase. The next 8 yrs (2019-2026) are - (all +) - 600, 700, 800, 800, 900, 900, 900, 900.









Ord is shrinking ?
1000 some pilots only

Sliceback
11-18-2018, 10:05 PM
ORD manning took the biggest hit post 9/11. That was reported about 7-10 years ago. APA Status 15 report has the data. ORD Manning has been constant for the last 5 (+/-) years.


sherpster
11-19-2018, 06:00 AM
BOS - 6.5%

CLT - 12.8%

DCA - 8.6%

DFW - 9%

LAX - 7%

LGA - 5%

MIA - 5.8%

ORD - 8%

PHL - 12%

PHX - 9%

Thru mid 2020

Brillo
11-19-2018, 06:16 AM
So on another forum some guys speculated that the manning at places like CLT and PHL is being allowed to dwindle through attrition on the airbus side in order to potentially make room for a 737 base. I know the company has said they have no plans in the short term for that. Still, though, for a new guy who doesn't know, what would be the potential effect of this and how would it impact pilots trying to go there? Would some people there bid over from the bus to the 73? New 737 pilots come in? For an airbus guy at a different base trying to get in, would that be a good thing/bad thing? Just trying to get an idea how these things play out.

Cheddar
11-19-2018, 06:26 AM
From HF class this week - numbers are current from 12 Nov:

Years/retirements
2/1338
5/3809
10/8331



Sent from my iPhone using Tapatalk

viper548
11-19-2018, 06:30 AM
I'm on the airbus and many of the captains I fly with have flown the 737. Most of them say there is no way they are going back. Some say they'd rather commute to the AB. I'd guess the 737 would be quite a bit junior to the airbus if they brought them in. One of the VPs just released his annual forecast and it discussed fleet movement, but nothing about opening new 737 bases.

Laker24
11-19-2018, 08:28 AM
From HF class this week - numbers are current from 12 Nov:

Years/retirements
2/1338
5/3809
10/8331



Sent from my iPhone using Tapatalk

The million dollar question is how many active pilots do management expect to have on property in 2/5/10 years. I wonder if they are counting on the new Embraer product and overseas Joint Venture agreements to ease their retirement strains. Parker likes to farm out flying to cheaper vendors. Clearly he doesnít care about controlling the product.

Al Czervik
11-19-2018, 09:00 AM
I'm on the airbus and many of the captains I fly with have flown the 737. Most of them say there is no way they are going back. Some say they'd rather commute to the AB. I'd guess the 737 would be quite a bit junior to the airbus if they brought them in. One of the VPs just released his annual forecast and it discussed fleet movement, but nothing about opening new 737 bases.

737 is weak sauce

Sliceback
11-19-2018, 09:56 AM
Sherpa - thanks for posting the percentages.

Sliceback
11-19-2018, 10:00 AM
I'm on the airbus and many of the captains I fly with have flown the 737. Most of them say there is no way they are going back. Some say they'd rather commute to the AB. I'd guess the 737 would be quite a bit junior to the airbus if they brought them in. One of the VPs just released his annual forecast and it discussed fleet movement, but nothing about opening new 737 bases.

Neither airplane is that bad, or the other so good, that it's worth commuting to work to fly the favored plane if you can drive to work and fly the 'worse' airplane. Same base, same seniority, same type of flying? Bid the Airbus. LAA guys who live in N.C. stopped saying "if it ain't Boeing I ain't going" as soon as they could upgrade on the AB in CLT. A saying among Airbus crews "friends don't let friends fly the 737." ;-)

Smoke Toliet
11-19-2018, 01:03 PM
The million dollar question is how many active pilots do management expect to have on property in 2/5/10 years. I wonder if they are counting on the new Embraer product and overseas Joint Venture agreements to ease their retirement strains. Parker likes to farm out flying to cheaper vendors. Clearly he doesnít care about controlling the product.

Ainít that the truth. If the product is cheap crap but the profits roll in is one thing but if the product is cheap crap and the profits and stock price struggle will the board replace him and his team?
Eliseís tweet about United over the weekend shows just how disconnected they are with reality and whatís going on with their product.

Name User
11-19-2018, 03:29 PM
I just flew eight legs as a nonrev through various hubs on a couple vacations. Had no real issues with the product or service, in fact thought it was pretty good and our FAs did a good job, all were exceedingly nice to fellow pax. I was on the new 737 oasis and they turned the worst seats at the bulkhead into some of the nicest ones out there, lots of leg room. The arm rest has the cool iPad holder that lets you brace it up right to watch movies.

By far the worst issue was the loud as hell annocumemts on the 757 and the fact that no inflight entertainment worked on it both legs. That is two iPhones, an iPad, and a windows laptop. It would never play movies. Pretty crappy. Oh, and "live tv" that Doug is bragging about? Four news channels. Totally bogus. Each flight was also over an hour late. They can't get rid of those planes fast enough!

I would say hands down our biggest issue is lack of a consistent inflight product. No one knows what they will get. It could be a rickety clapped out RJ, a S80, an old A320, or a new 737. Hell I even flew on a 787 to Las Vegas on one leg.

I prefer the seats of the Airbus but much prefer riding in a 737 now. The Airbus has some issues with yaw in flight and it kinda makes me sick especially in the bumps. Also as a pax I enjoy going up to 39,000 to avoid most of the weather. I've completely come around on the 737 and actually would like if we started getting rid of the Airbus and went to a straight 737/777/787 fleet with a consistent product inside. I don't think I will bid the Airbus again unless I have to.

QuagmireGiggity
11-20-2018, 06:15 AM
I just flew eight legs as a nonrev through various hubs on a couple vacations. Had no real issues with the product or service, in fact thought it was pretty good and our FAs did a good job, all were exceedingly nice to fellow pax. I was on the new 737 oasis and they turned the worst seats at the bulkhead into some of the nicest ones out there, lots of leg room. The arm rest has the cool iPad holder that lets you brace it up right to watch movies.

By far the worst issue was the loud as hell annocumemts on the 757 and the fact that no inflight entertainment worked on it both legs. That is two iPhones, an iPad, and a windows laptop. It would never play movies. Pretty crappy. Oh, and "live tv" that Doug is bragging about? Four news channels. Totally bogus. Each flight was also over an hour late. They can't get rid of those planes fast enough!

I would say hands down our biggest issue is lack of a consistent inflight product. No one knows what they will get. It could be a rickety clapped out RJ, a S80, an old A320, or a new 737. Hell I even flew on a 787 to Las Vegas on one leg.

I prefer the seats of the Airbus but much prefer riding in a 737 now. The Airbus has some issues with yaw in flight and it kinda makes me sick especially in the bumps. Also as a pax I enjoy going up to 39,000 to avoid most of the weather. I've completely come around on the 737 and actually would like if we started getting rid of the Airbus and went to a straight 737/777/787 fleet with a consistent product inside. I don't think I will bid the Airbus again unless I have to.
Haha.. F that. I'll never go back to the 737. I've never hated an airplane so much. The cabin from the pax point of view wasn't noticable to me to pick either one.

757HI
11-20-2018, 08:53 AM
I just flew eight legs as a nonrev through various hubs on a couple vacations. Had no real issues with the product or service, in fact thought it was pretty good and our FAs did a good job, all were exceedingly nice to fellow pax. I was on the new 737 oasis and they turned the worst seats at the bulkhead into some of the nicest ones out there, lots of leg room. The arm rest has the cool iPad holder that lets you brace it up right to watch movies.

By far the worst issue was the loud as hell annocumemts on the 757 and the fact that no inflight entertainment worked on it both legs. That is two iPhones, an iPad, and a windows laptop. It would never play movies. Pretty crappy. Oh, and "live tv" that Doug is bragging about? Four news channels. Totally bogus. Each flight was also over an hour late. They can't get rid of those planes fast enough!

I would say hands down our biggest issue is lack of a consistent inflight product. No one knows what they will get. It could be a rickety clapped out RJ, a S80, an old A320, or a new 737. Hell I even flew on a 787 to Las Vegas on one leg.

I prefer the seats of the Airbus but much prefer riding in a 737 now. The Airbus has some issues with yaw in flight and it kinda makes me sick especially in the bumps. Also as a pax I enjoy going up to 39,000 to avoid most of the weather. I've completely come around on the 737 and actually would like if we started getting rid of the Airbus and went to a straight 737/777/787 fleet with a consistent product inside. I don't think I will bid the Airbus again unless I have to.

Glad you enjoy it.:)

After 18 years in Boeings, the only way Iím going back to one is via a displacement. :D

Every day Iím liking the Ďbus more and more.

Who wants a parking meter poking up between their legs?:rolleyes:

Saabs
11-20-2018, 05:22 PM
Cabin in 737 is worse. Especially in a window seat. The fuselage is more narrow than an airbus and as a result you have led width at your feet when in a window seat due to the smaller fuselage.

Iíve heard people talk about the yaw on airbus but Iíve not been able to tell in the way back of a 321. I remember the Q400 was awful back there.

Name User
11-20-2018, 05:39 PM
Cabin in 737 is worse. Especially in a window seat. The fuselage is more narrow than an airbus and as a result you have led width at your feet when in a window seat due to the smaller fuselage.

I’ve heard people talk about the yaw on airbus but I’ve not been able to tell in the way back of a 321. I remember the Q400 was awful back there.

I never thought the yawing was an issue on the Airbus until I stayed off of one for several months and flew on exclusively US designed aircraft. It's hard to describe, just feels like it lacks a rudder.

I was a huge Airbus fan, but not so much anymore. I do like the cabin more, and the coc...flightdeck is way nicer.

flyinawa
11-20-2018, 06:06 PM
...flightdeck is way nicer.

In the same way listening to music on an iPhone is nicer than on an 8 track. Way, *WAY* nicer.

aa73
11-20-2018, 07:40 PM
737 all the way. Like a stick shift sports car... cramped, loud, tight fit but yet still requires old school piloting skills that are going extinct these days.. and a pure joy to fly.

Wanna be a systems manager and lose your flying skills, bid the Scarebus. Wanna still be a pilot at heart, bid the 737. I can hold the left seat of both in base, at the same seniority... wouldnít switch in a million years.

ďFriends let (senior) friends bid the Scarebus... so they can move up the list on the 737.Ē :D

Sliceback
11-20-2018, 08:45 PM
Since we fly in the middle of the envelope the FBW protection isnít a factor. The AB hand flies fine.

Sliceback
11-20-2018, 08:57 PM
Since we fly in the middle of the envelope the FBW protection isnít a factor. The AB hand flies fine.

TransWorld
11-20-2018, 09:22 PM
Iíve heard people talk about the yaw... I remember the Q400 was awful back there.

It was even more pronounced on the Q200, with 37 seats. I remember several evening flights out of SEA going over the Cascades. I used to volunteer to sit in the center of 5 across back row just to get my jollies off. Between yaw and pitch, coupled with a heavy rich meal before boarding, the rest of the passengers in that row (row 9) would all use the barf bag. I kid you not.

Arado 234
11-21-2018, 05:37 AM
In the same way listening to music on an iPhone is nicer than on an 8 track. Way, *WAY* nicer.

Wow, easy there bro! You make this statement on an audiophile board and you might just get tarred & feathered! But you'd probably lose your [email protected]!

Arado 234
11-21-2018, 05:39 AM
737 all the way. Like a stick shift sports car... cramped, loud, tight fit but yet still requires old school piloting skills that are going extinct these days.. and a pure joy to fly.

Wanna be a systems manager and lose your flying skills, bid the Scarebus. Wanna still be a pilot at heart, bid the 737. I can hold the left seat of both in base, at the same seniority... wouldnít switch in a million years.

ďFriends let (senior) friends bid the Scarebus... so they can move up the list on the 737.Ē :D

Loss of flying skills on the bus? Pilot at heart to fly a 737? WTF are you talking about? Fly the plane with everything off.

737MAX... Taking an unexpected dive near you?

QuagmireGiggity
11-21-2018, 08:07 AM
Loss of flying skills on the bus? Pilot at heart to fly a 737? WTF are you talking about? Fly the plane with everything off.

737MAX... Taking an unexpected dive near you?
I know.. I don't get it when people say things like "if you enjoy flying go 737". .I'm like .. what? It's an airplane. You hand fly it just like any other.

aa73
11-21-2018, 01:06 PM
Loss of flying skills on the bus? Pilot at heart to fly a 737? WTF are you talking about? Fly the plane with everything off.

737MAX... Taking an unexpected dive near you?

I thought that you didnít have to trim in the airbus? So let go of the stick in a turn and it maintains a perfect bank angle and altitude. Lots of skill involved in that... not. 737 keeps those old skills sharp. Airbus, the computer has the controls at all times, right? Unless in direct law.

And comparing uncommanded dives.. ya really wanna go there? How many have happened on the airbus? Qantas.. Lufthansa.. etc. Luckily with no fatalities as they happened at altitude.. but hey if they happened at 5000 like Lion Iím not so sure they woulda ended well.

Look, Iím not disputing the safety record of both aircraft, they are safe enough. Just pointing out that there is a reason Airbus pilots claim that it makes a great pilot just average. And that flying the 737 makes the job a heck of a lotta fun, and keeps your skills sharp, what with all the old school gadgets up there.

Al Czervik
11-21-2018, 02:04 PM
I thought that you didnít have to trim in the airbus? So let go of the stick in a turn and it maintains a perfect bank angle and altitude. Lots of skill involved in that... not. 737 keeps those old skills sharp. Airbus, the computer has the controls at all times, right? Unless in direct law.

And comparing uncommanded dives.. ya really wanna go there? How many have happened on the airbus? Qantas.. Lufthansa.. etc. Luckily with no fatalities as they happened at altitude.. but hey if they happened at 5000 like Lion Iím not so sure they woulda ended well.

Look, Iím not disputing the safety record of both aircraft, they are safe enough. Just pointing out that there is a reason Airbus pilots claim that it makes a great pilot just average. And that flying the 737 makes the job a heck of a lotta fun, and keeps your skills sharp, what with all the old school gadgets up there.

Do you drive a car with a crank on the font?

aa73
11-21-2018, 02:28 PM
Do you drive a car with a crank on the font?

If it’s old school... I drive it!

R57 relay
11-21-2018, 02:29 PM
aa73, the 737 was your first upgrade here, right? There is something special about that for many pilots. Mine was the F-28 and I doubt many put that on their favorites list, but had a ball.

I liked the 737's when I flew them, I wouldn't commute to avoid it, but for an office the Bus beats it. It can lull you into complacency, if you left it. I get some strange looks when I say that I turn the autothrust off.

One thing about the 737-I've never flown NG or MAX, but the rest seemed light in their feet. I've had a lot of skidding and weathervaning on the 737, but in 15 years on the bus I don't remember any. When I hear that an A/C left the surface, I immediately think 737.

Don't let these guys get you, it's okay to love a FLUFF!😉

I think this discussion comes up every few months...

Al Czervik
11-21-2018, 02:33 PM
If itís old school... I drive it!

Iím getting you flying goggles and a scarf for Christmas buddy.

aa73
11-21-2018, 02:41 PM
Hey r57, thanks for that... nah, I love a good airbus/Boeing mash up.

Flew the 737 for 4 years as an FO before upgrading on it, and yes it’s my first upgrade but I’m not new on it at all. Have enjoyed every minute I’ve flown it... sure there are more comfy rides out there but overall this aircraft is a joy to fly.

However, my absolute favorite aircraft ever at the airlines is by far the MD80... wow, what a blast to fly. Absolutely old school in every sense of the word. We would crack up when 777 pilots would j/s on our flights and go absolutely slack jawed looking at all the little dials while resting their feet on the little footrests that came down under the console. When I first checked out on it we still had some planes that didn’t even have the two tube EFIS, just mechanical everything. Not even a GFMS, so we navigated VOR to VOR... In 2001! What a blast.

That being said, yes the 737 has challenges just like every other aircraft, especially with the high landing speeds. But if you stay on top of it and set it down firmly in the first 1500ft you will not have a problem, the thing has awesome brakes. The NG does not weathervane much and has a pretty grippy footprint while taxiing.

Nothing anyone says here or anywhere wil ever derail my love for the MD80 and Guppy, still have a blast every time I show up to work!

And yes you Bus drivers are aight, in fact love riding in the back, nice and comfy... just turn off that dang PTU so that people don’t give me crazy looks!

aa73
11-21-2018, 02:41 PM
Iím getting you flying goggles and a scarf for Christmas buddy.

:D:cool::) yesssss!

jcountry
11-21-2018, 03:30 PM
Since we fly in the middle of the envelope the FBW protection isnít a factor. The AB hand flies fine.

If you think you are hand flying an Airbus, thatís the problem.

JK.

Seriously, it is fine in light winds, but in gusty stuff, it blows. Itís like driving a dump truck through oatmeal on gusty days.

Al Czervik
11-21-2018, 04:23 PM
If you think you are hand flying an Airbus, thatís the problem.

JK.

Seriously, it is fine in light winds, but in gusty stuff, it blows. Itís like driving a dump truck through oatmeal on gusty days.

A classy dump truck through comfortable oatmeal.

Sliceback
11-21-2018, 04:31 PM
If you think you are hand flying an Airbus, thatís the problem.

JK.

Seriously, it is fine in light winds, but in gusty stuff, it blows. Itís like driving a dump truck through oatmeal on gusty days.

All modern fighter guys think theyíre hand flying. Maybe someone should let them in on the secret.

It flies fine in gusty winds with the a/p and a/t off. Crosswinds are tricky and no where near as nice as the 737 or 777ís FBW logic in crosswinds.

The 737 is a better performance. The AB is a lot quieter, spacious and is light years more comfortable.

R57 relay
11-21-2018, 06:37 PM
If you think you are hand flying an Airbus, thatís the problem.

JK.

Seriously, it is fine in light winds, but in gusty stuff, it blows. Itís like driving a dump truck through oatmeal on gusty days.

You CAN hand fly the bus, it's just different how you do it. Through a spring loaded stick and flight control computers vs. a yoke with spings and a feel computer with cables running to a hydraulic actuator.

Saabs
11-21-2018, 09:15 PM
Itís funny that airline pilots are arguing over whatís the most hand flying airplane. Fly real airplanes on your day off. Be comfy at work.

Sliceback
11-22-2018, 03:55 AM
Itís also funny that guys think airliners arenít Ďrealí airplanes.

Buzzlightyear
11-22-2018, 06:21 AM
737MAX... Taking an unexpected dive near you?

https://i.makeagif.com/media/6-20-2015/CAf6Ym.gif

Cheddar
11-22-2018, 11:13 AM
A classy dump truck through comfortable oatmeal.



Lol! Thatís the best description...

I loved the Super80 because it was my first airplane here, and I got to live in base from day one. The bus was a gentlemanís airplane. Now the 767 - thatís just like my grandfathers Cadillac!!! Just enough work to make me feel semi important and just a nice ride. Now if only Boeing could figure out modern ergonomics... [emoji848]


Sent from my iPhone using Tapatalk

LuscombeGuy
11-22-2018, 01:17 PM
Fly whatever they pay you to at work. Its all in the system, recorded, and standardized.

Days off...fly real airplanes. Sticks and tailwheels.

Sliceback
11-22-2018, 02:54 PM
Lol! Thatís the best description...

I loved the Super80 because it was my first airplane here, and I got to live in base from day one. The bus was a gentlemanís airplane. Now the 767 - thatís just like my grandfathers Cadillac!!! Just enough work to make me feel semi important and just a nice ride. Now if only Boeing could figure out modern ergonomics... [emoji848]


Sent from my iPhone using Tapatalk

777 FO talking about being hesitant to bid off of the 767 "I loved the 767. DL friend who'd flown both said "I know you love the 767. After two weeks on the 777 you'll be throwing bricks at the 767. You know what, he's right." It's stupid nice which is why CA is going so junior, 777/787 FO's aren't upgrading.

Cheddar
11-22-2018, 03:16 PM
777 FO talking about being hesitant to bid off of the 767 "I loved the 767. DL friend who'd flown both said "I know you love the 767. After two weeks on the 777 you'll be throwing bricks at the 767. You know what, he's right." It's stupid nice which is why CA is going so junior, 777/787 FO's aren't upgrading.



Yep... thatís the displacement plan!


Sent from my iPhone using Tapatalk

babs
11-22-2018, 05:12 PM
Any rumblings of an ORD Airbus base in the near future?

Battlinbear21
11-23-2018, 07:38 AM
iíve only been in the airlines for 11 years. and to be honest, logging 8-950 hours a year iíve had enough hand flying to last the next 20. Gimme that Atari Ferrari and ill be the happiest guy at AA learning and watching that computer do the work. If someone is jonesing for some real deal flying get ya a Thunder Mustang kit and go nuts. or a L/29/39 and start a racing career. Maybe iím just lazy and wanna work smarter not harder.

Iowa Farm Boy
11-23-2018, 05:25 PM
Any rumblings of an ORD Airbus base in the near future?

Dear God please 🙏

UPTme
11-23-2018, 07:01 PM
Check DFW bus N3.... I'd say 1/4 of our Short call reserve coverage is to DH to ORD to rescue a trip

sumwherelse
11-23-2018, 08:09 PM
Itís stupid we donít have an ORD Bus base.

bigscrillywilli
11-24-2018, 06:16 AM
cheAAper that way, same with Philly Iím sure. They put out some memo not too long ago how we do the most out-of-base flying through there. Charlotte and DC must surely feed Chicago as well.

Saabs
11-24-2018, 07:58 AM
ORD is a small base I doubt they open a bus base there. I think a 73 base in one of the big hubs is more likely.

Arado 234
11-24-2018, 11:28 AM
If you think you are hand flying an Airbus, thatís the problem.

JK.

Seriously, it is fine in light winds, but in gusty stuff, it blows. Itís like driving a dump truck through oatmeal on gusty days.

Ever heard of a rudder?

Arado 234
11-24-2018, 11:31 AM
https://i.makeagif.com/media/6-20-2015/CAf6Ym.gif

Kept the wings level, minimum loss of fatalities.

Similar situation, pilots did not have all accessible info on aircraft systems.

Buzzlightyear
11-24-2018, 12:50 PM
All aircraft have design defects. That should be the focus not bickering about superiority.

Covfefe
11-24-2018, 02:07 PM
All aircraft have design defects. That should be the focus not bickering about superiority.

True, but that crash was not an example of a design defect. The pilot forced the aircraft to Alpha floor intentionally... pretty much the same as getting any other jet deep into the shaker. The jet didnít let him pull up because he would have stalled and killed everyone. The engines did not accelerate quickly to TRT because the pendulum effect would have caused them to stall and kill everyone. There was only one fatality in that crash (a young girl that survived impact, but couldnít get her seatbelt off and everyone left her). So actually this was an example of how an airbus saved almost an entire airplane of people from an idiot pilot. But I digress......

BOGSAT
11-25-2018, 04:54 AM
Has anyone been collecting trending data on lowest seniority number by bid status information on excel (last couple of perm bid awards)?

PRS Guitars
11-25-2018, 06:15 AM
Has anyone been collecting trending data on lowest seniority number by bid status information on excel (last couple of perm bid awards)?


AApilots, Personal Profile, Expanded 3XP then at the top right under seniority tool select “By Bid Status”

It’s probably not updated until the final vacancy list is out as opposed to preliminary.

I guess you’d have to export the data yourself to excel for a trendline.

Sliceback
11-25-2018, 06:36 AM
Has anyone been collecting trending data on lowest seniority number by bid status information on excel (last couple of perm bid awards)?

You can use the previous months 3XP data and look backwards. PBS 3XP data goes back several years. LAA 3XP data goes back to Jan 1998.

With the seniority number change in July it gets tougher to keep track of how much someone advanced. I use the August or September to ensure I have the updated seniority number and then go back to the previous year's seniority number (even June of the same year) and find the same person's old seniority number. Sometimes you have to go back month by month, especially for upgrades, because they switch bid statuses.

If you try to go back years for data or research find someone that you know their current bid status. Then go to the seniority list and find the names of people around them. Then go to the year you're looking at and see if you can find the individual, or the other people on the seniority list near them, in a bid status.

To find the bottom seniority number, for any given year or period, hunt the MIA or LGA FO/FE seats. You'll eventually find the junior person for both the 1993 and 2002 furlough periods who didn't get furloughed.

APA has some stuff you can research also. PM me if you're interested.

Covfefe
11-25-2018, 06:49 AM
Slice....

Does it appear to you that the company is not keeping up with upward movement? Supposedly we hired 900 this year, but I’m pretty certain that the upward movement does not match that figure. Thoughts??

Also, what gives with the massive bid award at the end of the summer and slow trickle the past few bids...? Do you expect it to take off again or stagnate a bit? It’s been hard to predict...

Sliceback
11-25-2018, 09:49 AM
Slice....

Does it appear to you that the company is not keeping up with upward movement? Supposedly we hired 900 this year, but Iím pretty certain that the upward movement does not match that figure. Thoughts??

Also, what gives with the massive bid award at the end of the summer and slow trickle the past few bids...? Do you expect it to take off again or stagnate a bit? Itís been hard to predict...

What are you using to define Ďupward movementí? You can follow the steps I mentioned andvresearch the data. I havnít looked at it. But weíre retiring approx 85% CAís when Iíve checked. With 900 new hires that would require 760(?) upgrades? The company said thereís been 700+ upgrades in the last 12 months (or this year?). Do it seems close to what weíd expect.

Some of the awards are withelds and entitlements. If you track the monthly bid awards it might balance out slightly. And the sim update might have reduced some training capacity. Iíd guess that training capacity is a problem that mgt is paying close attention to.

Given the increase in retirements it should increase. But not every seat, or base, responds in a linear fashion. Examples are how PHL and CLT appear to have little movement. But PHX, despite their drawduwn, is occasionally getting new hires. That is not what we would have predicted a year or two ago.



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