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View Full Version : Advancemnts - four year look back


Sliceback
11-22-2018, 02:36 PM
320 FO - 62% company wide (47% in junior bases).
767 FO - 90% company wide (89% junior base).
G4 FO - unable. At the current rate it will be 4 yrs and 10 months and late summer 2019.
CA - at the current rate it will be 5 yrs and 1 month to upgrade.

The train has exited the tunnel and is approaching the station.


sumwherelse
11-22-2018, 08:08 PM
Love your work slice. But what exactly is this showing?

Covfefe
11-23-2018, 06:02 AM
Love your work slice. But what exactly is this showing?

I think itís data for someone hired in Nov 2013, which is when off the street hiring started at AA. Iím at 4.5yrs and those are pretty close to the numbers Iím looking at. Both CA and group 4 FO are around 5yrs and within a couple months of each other.


Sliceback
11-23-2018, 06:22 AM
It's the ability of a guy hired four years ago to hold different seats and an estimate of when he can hold seats currently above his seniority.

As retirements increase those time periods should reduce. In the last four yrs roughly 1950 known retirements were forecast. In the next fours years it's about 2950-3000. Basically that shifts all of the data points I posted about a year sooner for a late 2018 new hire vs a late 2014 new hire. The large increase in retirements is throwing some of the old rules of thumb, at least in the short term, out the window. Guys getting hired now will initially have faster advancement than the guys hired four years ago. But obviously the guys hired four years ago will always be ahead of them.

The junior CA seniority dropped over a 605 numbers in a year after adjusting for the seniority change. Basically the same number as retirements. Which means I screwed up the projected CA upgrade date. It's more like 6 yrs +/- a month instead of 5 yrs and a month.

The increase is retirements will make future advancements quicker until the upgrade time is past the peak retirement years. I'd guess the cross-over estimate for that is 2019-2020 for new hires. Instead of having a 5 yr upgrade they'll revert to six years, then seven, etc. Looking at the difference between the bottom guy and the junior CA and it's about 3700 numbers. So a guy hired in five years (2023) is still looking at about 7 yrs to advance 3700 numbers. That's for the junior guy and most won't take that opportunity so their upgrade time will be longer. But it will be nothing like the last decade when it reached 17 yrs +/-.

Sliceback
11-23-2018, 06:30 AM
I think itís data for someone hired in Nov 2013, which is when off the street hiring started at AA. Iím at 4.5yrs and those are pretty close to the numbers Iím looking at. Both CA and group 4 FO are around 5yrs and within a couple months of each other.

I was looking at late 2014 DOH's. But I screwed up the upgrade time. It's closer to 6 yrs instead of five years.

Talking with a late 2014 new hire the other day and we were talking about his future opportunities. That is what caused me to look into the numbers. He could be a decent n/b line holder, or 767 reserve, but already positioning himself, due to the two year training lock-ins, for the G4 FO vs CA upgrade. At the two year mark.

The advancements is like the mid and late 1980's all over again. Crazy. But the difference is back then it was based on growth. Now it's based on retirements which is a much better, and reliable, forecast.

Sliceback
11-23-2018, 06:32 AM
Love your work slice. But what exactly is this showing?

It's basic research to answer questions or topics guys bring up or I get curious about. I figure if they, or I, am asking the question someone else might be also. So I post it.

But it can't be that great if it leaves the reader confused! :D

aa73
11-23-2018, 07:00 AM
The cannon has finally fired!

Good stuff Slice

TRZ06
11-23-2018, 10:31 AM
If flying remains flat and there is no increase in mandatory retirement in the next five years. I believe more flying will go regional and 67 or 68 will become the new max. One will mandate the other and satisfy the flying publics needs. Don't shoot the messenger but I see it coming. Probably similar to the 60 to 65 change IMO.

aa73
11-23-2018, 10:38 AM
If flying remains flat and there is no increase in mandatory retirement in the next five years. I believe more flying will go regional and 67 or 68 will become the new max. One will mandate the other and satisfy the flying publics needs. Don't shoot the messenger but I see it coming. Probably similar to the 60 to 65 change IMO.

Delta does not agree with you... Reference the massive A220 order (along with the 717s) flown by mainline, while they continue parking 50 seaters. All these new mainline aircraft are mostly flying previous RJ routes.

Meanwhile Doogie keeps ordering new 175s, thus supporting your theory. :rolleyes:

Otterbox
11-23-2018, 10:43 AM
If flying remains flat and there is no increase in mandatory retirement in the next five years. I believe more flying will go regional and 67 or 68 will become the new max. One will mandate the other and satisfy the flying publics needs. Don't shoot the messenger but I see it coming. Probably similar to the 60 to 65 change IMO.

Only way more flying goes to regionals is if APA votes in more scope relief in to the next contract....

chrisreedrules
11-23-2018, 11:03 AM
Only way more flying goes to regionals is if APA votes in more scope relief in to the next contract....

Hold the line. Current regional pilots will gladly fly regional flights in Group 1 aircraft for Group 1 pay on the APA seniority list.

Andrew_VT
11-23-2018, 12:33 PM
Probably similar to the 60 to 65 change IMO.

Age 67 would actually be miniscule compared to the 60->65 change. Early retirement/sick usage/loss of medical rate goes way up at those ages.

TRZ06
11-23-2018, 12:59 PM
I do not disagree. But AA has never acted in anyway like Delta, so that point is mute. Doesn't matter how successful Delta is or will be AA will manage like they always have despite the lesser results. Its unfortunate but its true. So is it wise to look back four years and expect the next four to be the same? I cant even begin to guess...

sumwherelse
11-23-2018, 08:11 PM
Thanks slice. Makes much more sense now!

QuagmireGiggity
11-24-2018, 05:03 AM
I was Spring 2015. The union told us their estimate at the time was 7 years. I think closer to 6 now for me.

Sliceback
11-24-2018, 06:26 AM
I was Spring 2015. The union told us their estimate at the time was 7 years. I think closer to 6 now for me.

I did some more crunching after screwing up a late 2014 new hires progression. I might be screwing up the retirement/new seniority list/junior CA math but it looks like it dropped 605 numbers from March 2017 to March 2018. That's 110% of the expected retirements. If we assume junior CA drops by 110% of the annual expected retirements a late 2014 new hire is looking at 5 yrs 10 months. I used 12700 as a mid fall new hire. If my assumptions are correct it's August 2020 when the junior CA becomes available.

Sliceback
11-24-2018, 06:31 AM
I was Spring 2015. The union told us their estimate at the time was 7 years. I think closer to 6 now for me.

If the assumptions I used are correct you'd be looking at a drop in junior CA of 78 numbers per month after August 2020. Compare your number to 12,700, divide the difference by 78, and add those months to August 2020. Close to six years?

Craigmac3030
11-24-2018, 07:14 AM
How often are seniority numbers updated??

Sliceback
11-24-2018, 07:38 AM
How often are seniority numbers updated??

Eff. every July 1st. List is typically released in the third week of July after all the cross-checking is done.

ORD typically has an unusual amount of people rejoining the list. It's a hangover from the Daley years. ;)

So a guy hired in June might have a seniority number of 15,800 but his relative seniority, after retirements are counted but who havn't been removed from the seniority list, might be 14,900.

Then there's the list of guys actually on property which is about 1,000 less. And then there's the number of guys actually flying the line which subtracts all the CKA, CP's, fleet managers, tech pilots, etc.

So it's important to know which list is being used when making comparisons or analysis.

QuagmireGiggity
11-24-2018, 03:50 PM
If the assumptions I used are correct you'd be looking at a drop in junior CA of 78 numbers per month after August 2020. Compare your number to 12,700, divide the difference by 78, and add those months to August 2020. Close to six years?That would be about 5.5 for me. Haven't really dug in on any math. As group 3 goes away it will throw a wrench into things as more people go group 4 FO...

Rawhide16
11-24-2018, 04:16 PM
That would be about 5.5 for me. Haven't really dug in on any math. As group 3 goes away it will throw a wrench into things as more people go group 4 FO...

Group 3 shouldnít go away. The 321 and the MAX should be Group 3.

Sliceback
11-24-2018, 04:33 PM
That would be about 5.5 for me. Haven't really dug in on any math. As group 3 goes away it will throw a wrench into things as more people go group 4 FO...

More G4 FO jobs should advance(lower) the junior CA awards. More guys will stay on the G4 FO seat than they will park on the 767. 767 is only a 5% pay bump over G2. G4 is a 23% pay bump. Line holding G4 FO's hustling can make G2 CA pay, especially if the G2 CA is on rsv. So G4 FO's stay which drops the junior CA bid even lower. Being junior on PBS might also be a factor. Bottom CA is now at 77% of the overall list. It used to be around 65%.

QuagmireGiggity
11-24-2018, 06:30 PM
Group 3 shouldnít go away. The 321 and the MAX should be Group 3.
I hear ya.

QuagmireGiggity
11-24-2018, 06:36 PM
More G4 FO jobs should advance(lower) the junior CA awards. More guys will stay on the G4 FO seat than they will park on the 767. 767 is only a 5% pay bump over G2. G4 is a 23% pay bump. Line holding G4 FO's hustling can make G2 CA pay, especially if the G2 CA is on rsv. So G4 FO's stay which drops the junior CA bid even lower. Being junior on PBS might also be a factor. Bottom CA is now at 77% of the overall list. It used to be around 65%.Yeah, that's what I mean. Not much left of the 76 by end of 2020 so wasn't sure if you were putting that in you calculation.

Sliceback
11-25-2018, 06:19 AM
Yeah, that's what I mean. Not much left of the 76 by end of 2020 so wasn't sure if you were putting that in you calculation.

I didn't factor quicker advancement as the 767 is replaced by the 787. I think it will occur but it's a 2020 event and I think the impact on guys about to upgrade will be less noticeable. But it will be interesting in 2021 and 2022 to see if the junior CA percentage stays at 77% or if it drops even lower.

Here's some crazy thinking - 77% means the junior guy only has to advance 23% to upgrade at the first opportunity. With 15,000 pilots in 202x that means a 2023 new hire will only need to advance about 3,450 numbers. With the forecast retirements, and a 10% bump, that's about 3 yrs and 4 months to upgrade for a guy hired 1/1/2023. Based on retirements, not on growth. Insane stuff due to the huge retirement numbers in the early/mid 2020's.

Dobbs18
11-25-2018, 07:21 AM
I was looking at late 2014 DOH's. But I screwed up the upgrade time. It's closer to 6 yrs instead of five years.

Talking with a late 2014 new hire the other day and we were talking about his future opportunities. That is what caused me to look into the numbers. He could be a decent n/b line holder, or 767 reserve, but already positioning himself, due to the two year training lock-ins, for the G4 FO vs CA upgrade. At the two year mark.

The advancements is like the mid and late 1980's all over again. Crazy. But the difference is back then it was based on growth. Now it's based on retirements which is a much better, and reliable, forecast.

I thought you do not have a two year seat lock if you are upgrading for the first time on an award...i.e. you bid and get 777 FO and a year later you bid and get 320 CA? its in 17.L.1.e says you will be released to initially upgrade to the next higher category after fulfilling 6 months of such lock in. Not sure if that is what you were saying....

PRS Guitars
11-25-2018, 10:20 AM
I thought you do not have a two year seat lock if you are upgrading for the first time on an award...i.e. you bid and get 777 FO and a year later you bid and get 320 CA? its in 17.L.1.e says you will be released to initially upgrade to the next higher category after fulfilling 6 months of such lock in. Not sure if that is what you were saying....

What I think he is saying...is that guys are skipping bidding for the 767 even though they could be a line holder, to hold out for the G4 FO position. Then theyíll bid G4 FO and be able to jump ship to CA when they want.

viper548
11-25-2018, 10:40 AM
What I think he is saying...is that guys are skipping bidding for the 767 even though they could be a line holder, to hold out for the G4 FO position. Then theyíll bid G4 FO and be able to jump ship to CA when they want.
I'm doing that. I can hold the 767 in DFW but don't want the 2 year seat lock because I think I'll get the 777 within a year.

Sliceback
11-25-2018, 11:11 AM
I'm doing that. I can hold the 767 in DFW but don't want the 2 year seat lock because I think I'll get the 777 within a year.

Bingo.

And shack to PRS.

Timing of 767 vs G4 vs upgrade vs training after January 1st to get one more FO vacation slot.

Yes, initial upgrade can break a two yr lock-in. Thereís another game there - go to recurrent training and then put in for the upgrade. It might extend the length of any withholding. Flying high time as an FO, at CA rates, is a good deal.

Dobbs18
11-25-2018, 04:35 PM
What I think he is saying...is that guys are skipping bidding for the 767 even though they could be a line holder, to hold out for the G4 FO position. Then theyíll bid G4 FO and be able to jump ship to CA when they want.

oh ok cool, just really making sure i was correct in regards to the lock-in release for an initial upgrade.

redbaronahp
11-27-2018, 11:03 AM
Hey Slice. If youíre saying itís looking like approximately 5 years for a 2018 new hire to G2 CA, then what do you think it is for G4 CA?

bigscrillywilli
11-27-2018, 11:07 AM
Whenís tha next bid??

viper548
11-27-2018, 11:32 AM
Whenís tha next bid??
Probably not until next year. This one was for Feb-Mar.

TankerDriver
11-27-2018, 12:08 PM
Hey Slice. If youíre saying itís looking like approximately 5 years for a 2018 new hire to G2 CA, then what do you think it is for G4 CA?330 CA - 7459
777 CA - 10231
787 CA - 5374

Do your own public math with the forecasted retirements.

viper548
11-27-2018, 12:13 PM
Hey Slice. If youíre saying itís looking like approximately 5 years for a 2018 new hire to G2 CA, then what do you think it is for G4 CA?


About 15 years

viper548
11-27-2018, 12:18 PM
330 CA - 7459
777 CA - 10231
787 CA - 5374

Do your own public math with the forecasted retirements.


Those are management pilots/check airmen. Bottom non special slot Group 4 CA is around 3000 on the seniority list.

PRS Guitars
11-27-2018, 06:42 PM
Hey Slice. If youíre saying itís looking like approximately 5 years for a 2018 new hire to G2 CA, then what do you think it is for G4 CA?

If this is for your FedEx decision matrix...go to FedEx since you live in Memphis. Congrats (assuming you got the job) and good luck!

dera
11-27-2018, 06:48 PM
About 15 years

Not mathematically possible.

Sliceback
11-27-2018, 07:44 PM
About 15 years

My estimate is 16 yrs using today's fleet count. But additional G4 deliveries (22 in the next four years) will drive the date closer.

The crazy thing is I came up with 16 yrs for a 2014 and a late 2018 new hire. There's a gap of about 3,300(?) numbers but only there's only 875 G4 CA jobs. But the take rate isn't 100% which is why the junior G4 CA (non SLI slot or CP/CKA) is about 2500 on the 787/330 and 3000 on the 777. Add in 7-8 CA's per G4 aircraft and the 875 jobs becomes 1,025-1,050. Does that drop junior G CA closer to 3000-3500 in 2022/2023??

Sliceback
11-27-2018, 07:47 PM
Whenís tha next bid??

We've been getting the awards the month before the next training cycle starts. December training for the January awards. So an early Feb posting and mid/late (15-20th?) announcement of the awards for the June bid? Training would be Mar/Apr/May for the June award.

Follow on would be an early May posting for the mid/late May awards for the September bid? Training starting in Jun/Jul/Aug.

viper548
11-28-2018, 06:05 AM
Not mathematically possible.
I was a mid 2014 hire and the seniority calculator has me at sen #3056 at the end of 2030. That's 16.5 years and that current seniority holds group 4 CA. We have a net gain of 15 group 4 aircraft between now and 2024. That will likely drop the group 4 CA seniority. A guy hired today would be in about the same position after 15-16 years. These numbers are also based off of zero growth. I also did not account for the additional 25 787s after 2024

Sliceback
11-28-2018, 06:31 AM
Hey Slice. If you’re saying it’s looking like approximately 5 years for a 2018 new hire to G2 CA, then what do you think it is for G4 CA?

As another poster mentioned if you live in Memphis, and plan on staying in Memphis, it doesn't matter FedEx should be your first, second, and third choice.

The general opinion is none of the jobs is worth commuting to if you live in base for one of the competition. The only consideration is the availability of long haul w/b flying vs an airline that is only n/b flying. That's an individual decision to make. The reality is plenty of guys commute to do the w/b flying. Except for some of them they have a n/b base as a fall back option so it's not the same as commuting for your entire career.

viper548
11-28-2018, 06:35 AM
As another poster mentioned if you live in Memphis, and plan on staying in Memphis, it doesn't matter FedEx should be your first, second, and third choice.

The general opinion is none of the jobs is worth commuting to if you live in base for one of the competition. The only consideration is the availability of long haul w/b flying vs an airline that is only n/b flying. That's an individual decision to make. The reality is plenty of guys commute to do the w/b flying. Except for some of them they have a n/b base as a fall back option so it's not the same as commuting for your entire career.


American, Delta, United, Southwest, FedEx, UPS are all top tier jobs. If you live in the base of one of them it's not worth commuting to a different one, unless you've already built some seniority.

mainlineAF
11-28-2018, 09:05 AM
Those are management pilots/check airmen. Bottom non special slot Group 4 CA is around 3000 on the seniority list.



Some of the junior group 4 captains were awarded it out of seniority bc LUS was guaranteed a certain number of g4 captain positions. So that bottom number may not be accurate once those protections (which i think last 5 years from SLI) go away.

Al Czervik
11-28-2018, 09:45 AM
Not mathematically possible.

It is for 2012-2014 hires.

Buzzlightyear
11-28-2018, 10:05 AM
Some of the junior group 4 captains were awarded it out of seniority bc LUS was guaranteed a certain number of g4 captain positions. So that bottom number may not be accurate once those protections (which i think last 5 years from SLI) go away.

Mainline is right here. When I looked the junior WB CA LAA was 1800 ish. Those in the 3000ís were LUS protected positions.

viper548
11-28-2018, 10:07 AM
Mainline is right here. When I looked the junior WB CA LAA was 1800 ish. Those in the 3000ís were LUS protected positions.


I think a few of those may have made it into my spreadsheet before I realized that's what they were. The new awards show the protected positions.

viper548
11-28-2018, 10:22 AM
Hey Slice. If youíre saying itís looking like approximately 5 years for a 2018 new hire to G2 CA, then what do you think it is for G4 CA?


If you're PHL based be sure and pay attention to the forced E-190 upgrades. The Q&A with the contract compliance guys said the forced upgrade will incur a 2 year seatlock. They'll probably held for a year beyond that too. The 190s are supposed to be parked by then, but things change.

TankerDriver
11-28-2018, 11:02 AM
If you're PHL based be sure and pay attention to the forced E-190 upgrades. The Q&A with the contract compliance guys said the forced upgrade will incur a 2 year seatlock. They'll probably held for a year beyond that too. The 190s are supposed to be parked by then, but things change.With, as you posted in another thread, 1000 hrs 121 or 500 mil crew airplane.

PRS Guitars
11-28-2018, 11:32 AM
It is for 2012-2014 hires.

Actually movement will be quicker for folks hired after that. A 2018 hire will upgrade quicker than 2014 and definitely than 2012. Just due to the massive upswing in retirements coming up. With that said, in terms of number of pilots younger and senior to you...2012 to 2014 hires are way better off than anyone hired since then.

Sliceback
11-28-2018, 11:44 AM
Actually movement will be quicker for folks hired after that. A 2018 hire will upgrade quicker than 2014 and definitely than 2012. Just due to the massive upswing in retirements coming up. With that said, in terms of number of pilots younger and senior to you...2012 to 2014 hires are way better off than anyone hired since then.

Bingo. And the quickest advancements to G2 CA have not been hired yet. Junior CA will be about 3,500 from the bottom in March. With 10% additional early retirements weíll have over 4,000 retirements in 2023-2026. The guys hired in early 2023, using todayís percentages, might upgrade in 3.5 yrs.

Sliceback
11-28-2018, 11:50 AM
If you research the G4 CA 3 XPís for the September run you might be able to identify the SLI protected upgrades.

I think JFK 777 CA dropped to 3360(?). About a dozen guys junior to 2500 should be pink on the PBS bid award for September. I think it was the September run. Maybe the June run. All none SLI protected guys if I recall correctly. The really junior guys are SLI protected and cane after the big move in JFK. Check out the junior, and out of seniority, guys in LAX and DFW. Iím pretty sure they are are SLI slots.

Buzzlightyear
11-28-2018, 01:22 PM
If you research the G4 CA 3 XPís for the September run you might be able to identify the SLI protected upgrades.

I think JFK 777 CA dropped to 3360(?). About a dozen guys junior to 2500 should be pink on the PBS bid award for September. I think it was the September run. Maybe the June run. All none SLI protected guys if I recall correctly. The really junior guys are SLI protected and cane after the big move in JFK. Check out the junior, and out of seniority, guys in LAX and DFW. Iím pretty sure they are are SLI slots.
Thatís correct. The July bid had a LUS protected CA who was awarded 777 in DFW at 37xx seniority and a LAX at 46xx.

Floobs
11-28-2018, 01:38 PM
Imagine reitiring as a group 2 f/o. Sad...

Sliceback
11-28-2018, 01:58 PM
I just looked at the DFW 777 CA 3XP on PBS for December. In November the bottom five guys were closely space. Seniority # x, +15, +4, +27, +41. Five guys in 87 numbers. In December the new guys were +393, +415, and +1350 for the previous junior guy. Those are the SLI protected slots.

The protection is for the LUS East guys as senior LUS (East) guys retire. For each LUS G4 CA retirement LUS guys are grandfathered into those jobs until 12/31/2019. 216 minimum???

The protection drops dead 1/31/2019. After that it will resort to pure seniority bidding.

RhinoBallAuto
11-28-2018, 02:21 PM
With, as you posted in another thread, 1000 hrs 121 or 500 mil crew airplane.

Ehhh....don't wanna split hairs, but it's not "or 500..."

You can credit up to 500 mil crew towards the 1000hr requirement. You still require ≥ 500 121 SIC.

RhinoBallAuto
11-28-2018, 02:36 PM
FWIW, the threshold for breaking into any milestone (G2/CA or G4/FO) will likely remain roughly the same as it is today, in terms of seniority number (notwithstanding SLI protections and CKAs).

The only thing that really will change is the time to achieve that seniority number, due to the retirement wave. Of course, that's also predicated on Fleet mix remaining relatively constant.

Also, and I have mentioned this before -- "early" retirements only have an impact on short horizons. If 1000 additional guys punch out next year at 60 instead of 65, that won't impact my timing for G4/CA, since that is not < 5 years for me, because they're out either way by my time... it will impact those who are 2-3 years from G4/CA, and perhaps my G4/FO timing...

I offer that as a caution to those who say, "there are XX mandatory retirements plus YY% early retirements every year." Well, to have earlys take place "every year" is just unsustainable -- early retirements are essentially robbing Peter to pay Paul.

It's important for the near term progression analysis, but earlys just come out in the wash over the longer term. Just food for thought.

viper548
11-28-2018, 03:19 PM
FWIW, the threshold for breaking into any milestone (G2/CA or G4/FO) will likely remain roughly the same as it is today, in terms of seniority number (notwithstanding SLI protections and CKAs).

The only thing that really will change is the time to achieve that seniority number, due to the retirement wave. Of course, that's also predicated on Fleet mix remaining relatively constant.





Those thresholds have been moving rapidly. A year or so ago Group 4 CA was 2000ish, now its above 3000. Group 2 CA was under 10,000, now it's 11,400. Group 4 FO was just above 10,000, now it's just under 12,000. My theory is many people are unhappy with PBS and it's getting harder to adjust schedules with TTS/TTOT. I think people are wanting to hang on to some seniority and not be the bottom guy in a new position.

viper548
11-28-2018, 03:28 PM
Imagine reitiring as a group 2 f/o. Sad...
There are some senior group 2 FOs. Guys living in base with great QOL, doing turns worth 7+ hours a day.

Kebert Xela
11-28-2018, 04:41 PM
Those thresholds have been moving rapidly. A year or so ago Group 4 CA was 2000ish, now its above 3000. Group 2 CA was under 10,000, now it's 11,400. Group 4 FO was just above 10,000, now it's just under 12,000. My theory is many people are unhappy with PBS and it's getting harder to adjust schedules with TTS/TTOT. I think people are wanting to hang on to some seniority and not be the bottom guy in a new position.

Correct me if this is an ignorant assessment but with our seniority list only updated once a year isnít it inaccurate to compare numbers from ďyears pastĒ to now due to the fluidity of retirements?

The way I think about it, what if in a year 800 are slotted to retire and 700 do before July. Your relative seniority would be great first half of the year but crawl 2nd half compared to the list because only 100 would be leaving and the list would keep growing at a greater pace with new hire numbers.

I know the numbers remain the same but relative seniority artificially changes dramatically after the shuffle due to the infrequent update. Why canít AA reshuffle with more frequency like other carriers? I think it might help a simpleton like me, cause the more I think about it the more it sounds like circular logic.

Sliceback
11-28-2018, 05:19 PM
$.02, or commonly known as opinion -
Upgrade is now at approx. 77% of the total list. It used to be closer to 65%. IMO a couple of factors is driving the increase (more junior) upgrade opportunity -
the great job that G4 FO is,
the significant pay raises reducing the pressure to upgrade to make acceptable pay,
and the increase in total G4 FO slots which gives more guys the opportunity to choose to upgrade at a later date.

With more G4 airframes coming in 2020 (12) to replace 767's I think the trend might continue or increase. And due to increased G4 slots it might become more junior allowing quicker advancement to G4 FO or CA.

As to the reduction in junior slots coming about due to the new seniority numbers? Next year we have 620 retirements. Of those 168 (27%) are G4 CA's. So the increase in seniority number is greater than the number or retirements. And even factoring the 'take rate' it seems to be that the increase in fleet size might a significant, or primary, cause for the decrease in seniority numbers.

And PBS might be a significant factor. PBS rewards seniority and with acceptable pay the need to chase pay via upgrading is greatly reduced.

G2 FO's are making 767 CA pay from 7 yrs ago. G4 FO's are making more than G4 CA's did 7 yrs ago. All of these variables are changing behavior.

Sliceback
11-28-2018, 05:29 PM
The junior 777 CA as of June advanced 260 numbers in the new seniority numbers in July while the bottom guy advanced 595 numbers.

Buzzlightyear
11-29-2018, 05:06 AM
There are some senior group 2 FOs. Guys living in base with great QOL, doing turns worth 7+ hours a day.

18 days off and home every night!

Laker24
11-29-2018, 06:11 AM
The junior 777 CA as of June advanced 260 numbers in the new seniority numbers in July while the bottom guy advanced 595 numbers.

Can you explain that in more detail?

Sliceback
11-29-2018, 08:48 AM
Can you explain that in more detail?

We had 595 retirements. The junior guys advanced that many numbers. The guy at 2270 +/- had 260 retirements senior to him and 335 junior to him.

Laker24
11-29-2018, 12:18 PM
Got it. Thanks. Have we increased the total active pilots on property?

viper548
11-29-2018, 01:18 PM
Got it. Thanks. Have we increased the total active pilots on property?
200-300 since the combined list. I think we were right around 14,500 on the list then and we are around 14,700 now.

QuagmireGiggity
11-29-2018, 05:38 PM
G2 Captain at 77%... Anyone know what it is at Southwest? Just curious how it is at an all G2 airline.

Otterbox
11-29-2018, 06:22 PM
G2 Captain at 77%... Anyone know what it is at Southwest? Just curious how it is at an all G2 airline.

Someone was saying SWA captain at 60% in another thread.

Buzzlightyear
11-30-2018, 05:04 AM
They are not hiring 900 a year either. Things are somewhat slow regarding upgrade over there from what Iíve heard from friends. Comments Iíve heard make it sound like a ten year upgrade or more for new hires. Smaller airline I know but with the widebody aircraft and the inverted pyramid of age/seniority we have currently it seems that our G2 upgrade will continue to fall over the next several years.

bigscrillywilli
12-02-2018, 04:45 AM
We've been getting the awards the month before the next training cycle starts. December training for the January awards. So an early Feb posting and mid/late (15-20th?) announcement of the awards for the June bid? Training would be Mar/Apr/May for the June award.



Follow on would be an early May posting for the mid/late May awards for the September bid? Training starting in Jun/Jul/Aug.


Thatís assuming a 3-month bid right? Or is this data out there somewhere? Thanks

Sliceback
12-02-2018, 07:25 AM
Thatís assuming a 3-month bid right? Or is this data out there somewhere? Thanks

Correct. Assuming a three month bid cycle like last year.

jcountry
12-02-2018, 07:51 AM
Hold the line. Current regional pilots will gladly fly regional flights in Group 1 aircraft for Group 1 pay on the APA seniority list.

Definitely!

Scope is huge this time!!!

There are a lot of ďscrew everyone else, Iím getting mine while I canĒ pilots right now. A lot of them retire very soon-and the company knows it.

We must hold the line on scope-above all else!!

(We also should not lose sight of the fact that our jerkwad President is ALREADY blaming the membership for voting yes on a crappy first offer.... Before negotiations have even started. We know heís more than ready to rubber stamp anything.)



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