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View Full Version : Latest Pathways Updates


Snarge01
11-30-2018, 09:56 AM
Anybody have any info if people are actually moving over to AS via this program? It appears the "flow" might be more of a "trickle?"


Excargodog
11-30-2018, 02:42 PM
"Trickle" would be one description....

oldgb
11-30-2018, 03:28 PM
Pretty close to 50% of the last few classes at AS have been from QX. Not sure WTF you guys want


Starchkr
11-30-2018, 05:44 PM
Pretty close to 50% of the last few classes at AS have been from QX. Not sure WTF you guys want

Iíd have to agree with this.

Isnít it common for hiring to slow down during the holidays anyway? Also, Alaska hiring isnít going to be like it is at the larger legacy carriers. Itís a young group and a relatively small airline.

Also thereís nothing stopping anyone from applying directly to other majors.

Vanilla
12-01-2018, 04:21 AM
Anybody have any info if people are actually moving over to AS via this program? It appears the "flow" might be more of a "trickle?"

Not if but when. 17 moved over in October. 5 in December. Roughly 50% of AS classes will be QX pilots. Sure, the numbers aren't like the bigger legacies. We'll see what 2019 brings in the AS hiring numbers....

Discussion beginning at post #16: https://www.airlinepilotforums.com/horizon-air/111508-alaska-pathway-where-else-can-you-go-after-2.html

snackysmores
12-01-2018, 10:34 AM
So far they've been good at keeping the classes at 50% Qx. Alaska just isn't a big airline and doesnt have a lot of retirements coming up so it will take a while.

Excargodog
12-01-2018, 01:37 PM
So far they've been good at keeping the classes at 50% Qx. Alaska just isn't a big airline and doesnt have a lot of retirements coming up so it will take a while.


^^^this^^^^




Alaska
Mandatory retirements:
2019 - 49
2020 - 55
2021 - 57
2022 - 56
2023 - 50
2024 - 60
2025 - 57
2026 - 52
2027 - 77


Figure half will go military. Add 40 slots per year for the projected 2% annual growth, and still you aren't really talking more than 5-6 flowing a month out of a QX group of ~850. That would give the junior guy about a 12 year wait.

Starchkr
12-02-2018, 09:43 AM
^^^this^^^^




Alaska
Mandatory retirements:
2019 - 49
2020 - 55
2021 - 57
2022 - 56
2023 - 50
2024 - 60
2025 - 57
2026 - 52
2027 - 77


Figure half will go military. Add 40 slots per year for the projected 2% annual growth, and still you aren't really talking more than 5-6 flowing a month out of a QX group of ~850. That would give the junior guy about a 12 year wait.

Itís very difficult to project but consider many pilots will leave QX to go to other majors instead of waiting their turn for the pathway. That will help movement some.

My personal thoughts are, keep applying and interviewing at majors including Alaska(if thatís your goal). Donít make waiting for the pathway your only hope. If the pathway works out before you get hired on with a major then great.

Excargodog
12-02-2018, 01:13 PM
Itís very difficult to project but consider many pilots will leave QX to go to other majors instead of waiting their turn for the pathway. That will help movement some.

My personal thoughts are, keep applying and interviewing at majors including Alaska(if thatís your goal). Donít make waiting for the pathway your only hope. If the pathway works out before you get hired on with a major then great.


I'd make that, "If you get hired on by a major before the pathway works for you, that's great."

Otherwise I pretty much agree with you.

BigfatQ
12-02-2018, 07:14 PM
You don't have to stop looking after you get hired by Alaska

fivebyfive
12-04-2018, 05:50 PM
Pretty close to 50% of the last few classes at AS have been from QX. Not sure WTF you guys want

A rate of 50% to be sustained. Unfortunately for QX pilots that is not going to happen. The last few months were an attempt by AG to try and bring some legitimacy to the program after nearly a year of promises. AGís next move will be 1 or 2 QX pathwayers per class. Keep in mind that the sole reason for Pathways is a recruiting tool. As long as recruits buy in, it will stay that way.

Starchkr
12-04-2018, 11:12 PM
A rate of 50% to be sustained. Unfortunately for QX pilots that is not going to happen. The last few months were an attempt by AG to try and bring some legitimacy to the program after nearly a year of promises. AGís next move will be 1 or 2 QX pathwayers per class. Keep in mind that the sole reason for Pathways is a recruiting tool. As long as recruits buy in, it will stay that way.

Donít you think that would be counter productive? IMHO, they will have to strike a delicate balance to keep qualified pilots coming in.

Itís an interesting situation. Theyíre going to bleed experienced pilots either way. Wouldnít it be better to attract pilots whose end goal is to fly for Alaska? That way they can keep those pilots for a time and have at least some control over how fast they leave.

If the pathway loses credibility I think theyíll have more difficulty recruiting.

BigfatQ
12-04-2018, 11:53 PM
What makes you think this fivebyfive?

fivebyfive
12-05-2018, 07:48 AM
[QUOTE=BigfatQ;2719211]What makes you think this fivebyfive?[/QUOTE

Pathways isnít about AS needing qualified candidates to fill its classes. The shortage hasnít hit the majors yet. Just a great sales pitch to keep QX staffed. Unfortunately for QX, they just lost half of their most valuable check airman in this first round. Oops! Didnít see that coming. And with a bunch of new jets on the way. If stringing things out with 1 or 2 per class doesnít work, AG will pull the plug on Pathways completely.

Excargodog
12-05-2018, 07:48 AM
Itís an interesting situation. Theyíre going to bleed experienced pilots either way. Wouldnít it be better to attract pilots whose end goal is to fly for Alaska? That way they can keep those pilots for a time and have at least some control over how fast they leave.

Describe for me a model where management benefits more than delaying pilot career progression as much as possible. Where they pay out less to fill seats than if they keep regional pilots in the cheap seats as long as possible before resetting their seniority and starting them all over again at the bottom.

Yes, they do have to deal with market forces, but the longer they can delay upgrading young people and the more retired military they can jam in to the system ahead of the 26 year old with 1000 CFI hours and 2000 121 hours, the more money they DON'T have to spend on pilot salary at the very highest pay rates.

All the economic incentives for management are to do no more for their regional guys career progression than they absolutely must.

Griever
12-05-2018, 09:39 AM
^^^this^^^^




Alaska
Mandatory retirements:
2019 - 49
2020 - 55
2021 - 57
2022 - 56
2023 - 50
2024 - 60
2025 - 57
2026 - 52
2027 - 77


Figure half will go military. Add 40 slots per year for the projected 2% annual growth, and still you aren't really talking more than 5-6 flowing a month out of a QX group of ~850. That would give the junior guy about a 12 year wait.

🙄
Ok, so to clear up confusion, the 2% growth figure isn't necessarily a pilot seniority list number and in fact is often a rasm number or total revenue number.

As to "half go to military," that's so much conjecture. Yup, some hires are former military, but more often those veteran pilots have prior 121 time after accounting for qx pathways candidates.

Starchkr
12-05-2018, 12:22 PM
Describe for me a model where management benefits more than delaying pilot career progression as much as possible. Where they pay out less to fill seats than if they keep regional pilots in the cheap seats as long as possible before resetting their seniority and starting them all over again at the bottom.

Yes, they do have to deal with market forces, but the longer they can delay upgrading young people and the more retired military they can jam in to the system ahead of the 26 year old with 1000 CFI hours and 2000 121 hours, the more money they DON'T have to spend on pilot salary at the very highest pay rates.

All the economic incentives for management are to do no more for their regional guys career progression than they absolutely must.

They could absolutely shut down the pathway. Thereís no doubt about it but I think to shut it down or to even slow it down to a trickle wonít bode well for their recruiting strategy.

I agree that filling seats at Alaska isnít the problem here(I think you implied that). We know that QX wants more CAís and Iíve heard they also want more intructors/check airman etc. A lack of qualified pilots in the left seat is literally keeping them from flying as much as they would like to. Draining their ranks of qualified CAís hurts the operation to some extent, at least the way things are now.

My guess here is theyíd ideally like to see pilots come to QX, get their time and upgrade, spend a couple of years as CAís and then move on(pilots are going to be moving on whether they go to AS or another major anyway). If theyíre able to retain just enough pilots willing to stay on as CAís for a stint and to contribute as instructors etc theyíll have what they need to keep the operation running well.

Alaska needs to hire pilots that will stay long enough to upgrade and fly as CAís also but perhaps not long enough to hit the top of the pay scale. Thereís probably a sweet spot agewise in regards to this. I donít get the impression though that the majors seek to hire only middle aged pilots. They hire a wide range of ages. I donít think this is as big a concern at the majors. Correct me if Iím wildly innacurate here.

If I were in management I would be seeking to attract young pilots to QX that have a desire to remain on the west coast and see Alaska as a top choice. I would want to be able to control the movement of QX pilots to AS so that there is enough movement to maintain confidence in the pathway yet not at the same time devastate QX by depleting their stock of experienced and productive pilots.

If QX was to shut down the pathway or even slow it down too much, they will lose credibility amongst the young new pilots that they, letís face it, desperately need to fill the ranks. All of the regionals are fighting to attract young pilots. Shutting down the pathway would be a bad move.

Excargodog
12-05-2018, 03:26 PM
🙄
Ok, so to clear up confusion, the 2% growth figure isn't necessarily a pilot seniority list number and in fact is often a rasm number or total revenue number.

As to "half go to military," that's so much conjecture. Yup, some hires are former military, but more often those veteran pilots have prior 121 time after accounting for qx pathways candidates.

1. The 2% increase in size of the Alaska Pilot group was a "best case" scenario to avoid people quibbling about it. Barring medical issues, I imagine the vast majority of Alaska pilots with more than a few years seniority will stay to retirement, and those retirements would be the only vacancies that would with certainty have to be filled once a certain seniority threshold has been crossed.

2. Historically, retired military have been VERY competitive. But I'd agree, OLDER pilots with experience are nearly equally desirable because, like the retired military, their average pay to fill those seats will be significantly less because if the shorter duration they are at max pay compared to some twenty-five year old who would spend most of their career as a very senior captain. Hiring two retired O-5s (or other similarly qualified 45 year-olds) sequentially is a significant savings over one 25 year old. And what is more, there is a ripple effect. Every extra year that the junior person can be kept at the regional rather than the major saves Alaska money when they do eventually flow. AND THIS RIPPLES DOWN THROUGH THE WHOLE REGIONAL SENIORITY SYSTEM. Slowing down progression by slowing down the flow through injecting as many older pilots as possible in above the flow personnel keeps to a minimum the number of pilots being paid the highest pay rate, and trust me, the financial management people are well aware of this.

Starchkr
12-05-2018, 10:12 PM
I'd make that, "If you get hired on by a major before the pathway works for you, that's great."

Otherwise I pretty much agree with you.

Yes, well said.

snackysmores
12-06-2018, 11:17 AM
Fivebyfive called it.

Only 4 pathway pilots are being taken for the month of January out of 3 classes consisting of 12-20 each.

What a sham.

Starchkr
12-06-2018, 01:34 PM
Fivebyfive called it.

Only 4 pathway pilots are being taken for the month of January out of 3 classes consisting of 12-20 each.

What a sham.

Well, better keep those applications up to date I guess.

oldgb
12-06-2018, 01:51 PM
Pretty close to 50% of the last few classes at AS have been from QX. Not sure WTF you guys want

Well, crap. I was hoping they would keep to their word (have fun with that in the subsequent comments :D) and keep it close to the 50%, as promised.

By the way, I am not surprised, at all. Not naive, either. Just foolishly optimistic. As stated earlier, keep the applications up to date and hope the phone rings. Best of luck to all

Sikorsky38
12-06-2018, 05:50 PM
One big problem Horizon is having is that too many upgradeable first officers are bypassing for several reasons. In no particular order: 1) the take-home differential between being relatively senior as a FO compared to a junior Captain on reserve, 2) prevalent abuse by the company to pilots on reserve, 3) a still big question mark as to how management will handle the Paine E175 flying and potential future basing for the E175 & 4) nearly 200 of our pilots, many of which are FOs, sitting in the Pathways pool, with no incentive to risk failing an upgrade to the Q400 which has a bad track record of getting fresh upgrades through this past year. The fact that so many of QX's low-time pilots are young, low experience and flying the E175 with little if any turbo-prop experience, makes their prospect of upgrading into the Q400 highly problematic as they calculate their current position and future moves.

Last month, management put out a teaser that AAG was looking at doing extra flying with our Q400s, but that the feasibility of that potential extra flying would depend entirely on how many FOs decide to upgrade in January and February. Word on the street is that 50 upgradeable FOs are still by-passing for the reasons stated above. Personally, I think the extra flying carrot was just an attempt by management to get FOs off the fence. Management has already stated that the Pathways flow is slowing to a trickle, but I foresee a longer term fix will be needed, such as changing the Pathways program to where they require pilots to successfully upgrade to Captain. Since the union was not involved in setting up the Pathways program, the company is probably free to make any changes they wish to it. I don't know what the individual agreement/contract Pathway participants have signed looks like. Maybe individuals can challenge any changes the company tries to make. Obviously, the program has a major design flaw built into it, from the company's perspective.

Starchkr
12-06-2018, 08:51 PM
Fivebyfive called it.

Only 4 pathway pilots are being taken for the month of January out of 3 classes consisting of 12-20 each.

What a sham.

Is the just published 16 for January not accurate?

Sikorsky38
12-06-2018, 09:11 PM
The official email came out late today. I think the first January class awards were known earlier and assumptions were made that there would only be two Pathway pilots in each of the two known AS classes. Of a total number of 48 new hires at AS in January, 16 are coming from Horizon. Horizon is asking check airman to voluntarily delay until later this spring before taking their Pathway AS class slots.

Galaxy5
12-06-2018, 09:17 PM
Horizon is asking check airman to voluntarily delay until later this spring before taking their Pathway AS class slots.

Please tell me nobody is delaying...

snackysmores
12-06-2018, 10:04 PM
Please tell me nobody is delaying...

Yes, please defer out of the kindness of your hearts so we can continue to let guys and girls with decades less experience get a better seniority number than you :) thaaaanks

Starchkr
12-06-2018, 10:15 PM
Yes, please defer out of the kindness of your hearts so we can continue to let guys and girls with decades less experience get a better seniority number than you :) thaaaanks

Maybe if they awarded a seniority number.

snackysmores
12-06-2018, 11:05 PM
Maybe if they awarded a seniority number.

That would only make sense, and will never happen. AS ALPA would not allow.

oldgb
12-08-2018, 07:44 AM
That would only make sense, and will never happen. AS ALPA would not allow.

Maybe they could start at AS, get put on the seniority list, and then stay at QX. If it works for H and Carlos, why not the little people? :rolleyes:

Dashdrvr
12-08-2018, 03:04 PM
Maybe they could start at AS, get put on the seniority list, and then stay at QX. If it works for H and Carlos, why not the little people? :rolleyes:

If one looks at the list quite a number of top seniority people are deferring. It is dipping down in the 7 year longevity mark.

JerTee
12-13-2018, 09:55 PM
From the Flight Deck

December 13, 2018

From Carlos: Securing a long-term path for you and our company

When I started at Horizon just over a year ago, there were two primary concerns you shared with me most often. The first was the need to stabilize the operation and ensure the long-term future of Horizon. The second was about creating a path to mainline flying so our pilots could enjoy long-term careers at Air Group.

We have come a long way on both fronts this year. By overhauling our pilot hiring and training programs, we overcame the operational challenges we faced the year prior and have a stronger foundation to attract future talent. We are proud to send our current talented and highly qualified pilots to Alaska through the successful Pathways program. As of now, have transferred 25 pilots, which represents 50% of Alaska hires from October to December, and weíre funding 50% in two of the three January classes.

A year after our recovery, not only have we stabilized the operation, but we are securing our future as the first choice for additional flying for Alaska whenever possible. Alaska has requested that we fly between two and three more Q400 aircraft lines per month through the end of next summer and has increased our E175 flying via increased aircraft utilization. We will also now fly 18 flights out of Paine Field on the E175, five more than originally announced. This is all tremendous news, as this flying will stay within Air Group, which means more lines for the many pilots that have requested to fly more.
To support this flying and protect Horizonís future, balanced pilot staffing will be essential in the new year. Our goal remains to be the largest single source of pilots for Alaska Airlines. As current pilots move to mainline through Pathways in 2019, including some of our most senior pilots, check airmen and instructors, weíll stay focused on having a consistent flow of new hires coming in and appropriate training staff levels to support them. Of the remaining 100 pilots Alaska plans to hire by April, we will continue to strive to fund up to the 50%, while also ensuring pilots are in line with the competitive minimums that Alaska currently desires.

Varsity
12-14-2018, 05:37 AM
50% of two out of three classes in Jan? :confused:

What kind of hokie math is that?

50%*2/3= 33%...

JerTee
12-14-2018, 06:25 AM
"ensuring pilots are in line with the competitive minimums that Alaska currently desires".

That's new. Sounds like FOs will have to upgrade and get PIC time to me.

TyWebb
12-14-2018, 06:27 AM
50% Oct to Dec... and 50% in 2 of the 3 January classes. So obvious one of those classes is below the 50% mark. I originally read it like you did.

Fixnem2Flyinem
12-14-2018, 06:38 AM
"ensuring pilots are in line with the competitive minimums that Alaska currently desires".

That's new. Sounds like FOs will have to upgrade and get PIC time to me.

Yep I wouldnít be surprised if the agreement changes as soon as they realize the list is getting close to FOís hires in the last 2-3 years. Maybe 1000pic required, which I donít think is a bad thing

Vanilla
12-14-2018, 06:53 AM
50% Oct to Dec... and 50% in 2 of the 3 January classes. So obvious one of those classes is below the 50% mark. I originally read it like you did.

1/7 – 20 AS class slots- 2 Pathways, 18 external.
1/14 – 16 AS class slots- 5 Pathways, 11 external.
1/28 – 12 AS class slots- 9 Pathways, 3 external.


2 / 20 = 10%
5 / 16 = 31%
9 / 12 = 75%

Tricky/deceiving wording on Carlos' part. 5 + 9= 14... 14/28 = 50% when combining those 2 classes :rolleyes: This is like common core math for airline management speak....

Vanilla
01-27-2019, 05:03 PM
Latest list shows

8 QX in Feb 4 class
4 QX in Feb 11 class
6 QX in Feb 19 class
4 QX in Mar 4 class

Word around town is there will be 4 AS classes in March

GUFN
03-11-2019, 09:46 PM
I read in the Alaska board that there is an Airbus class in April. Any QXers in it?

hawgwild
03-12-2019, 12:46 PM
I read in the Alaska board that there is an Airbus class in April. Any QXers in it?

There is at least one I know of for sure. 1/15 hire.

Klsytakesit
03-12-2019, 11:24 PM
Yep I wouldnít be surprised if the agreement changes as soon as they realize the list is getting close to FOís hires in the last 2-3 years. Maybe 1000pic required, which I donít think is a bad thing
Amen. I hope we put the turbine PIC requirement back in. It will reward the pilots at Horizon that hustle and take the first upgrade oportunity. It will be a motivator to the copilots that just park in the right seat for life style. It will be a good thing for both airlines

Crjlife
03-15-2019, 06:20 PM
Iím confused with the wording of the pathway. Is it a flow or just an interview? Iím trying to make up my mind if I should through my application in with horizon, to end up in Alaska in 3 years.

Huskypilot
03-16-2019, 08:49 AM
Iím confused with the wording of the pathway. Is it a flow or just an interview? Iím trying to make up my mind if I should through my application in with horizon, to end up in Alaska in 3 years.

It is kinda both. After you've been hired and on the line for a bit, you sign up for an interview. Instead of an all-day marathon, you get a 20 min Q and A with an HR employee and a management pilot from Alaska. We're seeing about a 90% pass rate (last I heard) on these interviews. Next, you're placed on the list in order of company seniority. Though the guarantee is about 30%, at present Alaska is hiring about 50% of their new pilots from the Pathways list.

cursesRedBaron
03-16-2019, 09:43 AM
It is kinda both. After you've been hired and on the line for a bit, you sign up for an interview. Instead of an all-day marathon, you get a 20 min Q and A with an HR employee and a management pilot from Alaska. We're seeing about a 90% pass rate (last I heard) on these interviews. Next, you're placed on the list in order of company seniority. Though the guarantee is about 30%, at present Alaska is hiring about 50% of their new pilots from the Pathways list.

So, you can opt out of it? (Sounds like you 'sign up' for it.)
As is...if you think your chances are better of getting to AS sooner on your own, you don't have to go the 'pathway' route.

Crjlife
03-16-2019, 10:39 AM
It is kinda both. After you've been hired and on the line for a bit, you sign up for an interview. Instead of an all-day marathon, you get a 20 min Q and A with an HR employee and a management pilot from Alaska. We're seeing about a 90% pass rate (last I heard) on these interviews. Next, you're placed on the list in order of company seniority. Though the guarantee is about 30%, at present Alaska is hiring about 50% of their new pilots from the Pathways list.

Thanks for the input.

Horizon is advertising 2-3 years to be sitting an Alaska class. Is that true or is it just an advertisement?

ASpilot2be
03-16-2019, 10:40 AM
So, you can opt out of it? (Sounds like you 'sign up' for it.)
As is...if you think your chances are better of getting to AS sooner on your own, you don't have to go the 'pathway' route.

If you're at Horizon, from what I have heard the pathways program is the only way to get to Alaska. I heard they wont take you outside that program.

cursesRedBaron
03-16-2019, 10:52 AM
If you're at Horizon, from what I have heard the pathways program is the only way to get to Alaska. I heard they wont take you outside that program.

That's just crazy....and keeping me away.
I already have over 5000 hrs. 121 time....don't want to wait 3 more years.

Sad, too. QX was my 1st choice.

ASpilot2be
03-16-2019, 11:00 AM
Thanks for the input.

Horizon is advertising 2-3 years to be sitting an Alaska class. Is that true or is it just an advertisement?

Its hard to say. I will be here two years in September and I am roughly 150 on the list. If I were a betting man I would say more than the 2 to 3 years.

Fixnem2Flyinem
03-16-2019, 11:32 AM
Thanks for the input.

Horizon is advertising 2-3 years to be sitting an Alaska class. Is that true or is it just an advertisement?

Itís definitely a recruiting tool for Horizon. There is no way a new hire in 2019 will be in a mainline Alaska class before 2022. The numbers hired in the last year and a half are about 450 plus. Most of these pilots donít even have a pathway number yet as the requirements for an interview changed last year to a year on property and passing a CQ event. So letís say 60% (conservatively) of those sign up for pathway. Thatís about 270, add that to the 150 on the list already and that gives you 420. Thatís 420 pilots ahead of you waiting on a slot. At 50% of AS new hire classes thatís over 800 pilots need to be hired, and at 30% thatís 1400 pilots that need to be hired. That doesnít even account for the variable that is people waiting until their seniority number is near the top of the pathway list before they interview, that number could be very large as well. At an airline that isnít growing their mainline fleet or retiring at the level of the big 3, it will take a while to work your way up that list based on the variables above.

Horizon is also starting to have an issue with people bypassing upgrade, especially in the Q. I really do believe that a new requirement for a pathway class will be 1000pic at Horizon by next year. That will mean youíll have to be at Horizon atleast 4 years if youíre not previous 121. If Horizon cannot keep up with attrition, they will meter the pathway guaranteed.

On top of that many guys will leave for other opportunities, I think times will be interesting again here in a few years. Horizon just took away the referral bonus for pilots, and stated they are way ahead of the hiring curve. That is true, for now. Watch what happens when the vacuum turns on in 2021. Grab that popcorn, sh&tís gonna get real :)

Starchkr
03-16-2019, 11:52 AM
Its hard to say. I will be here two years in September and I am roughly 150 on the list. If I were a betting man I would say more than the 2 to 3 years.

I hate to sound like a negative Nancy here but I have serious doubts about the 2 to 3 year projection. The reason? There are lots of senior pilots at Horizon that donít want to go to Alaska but that group has been bypassed more or less at this point. When you look at the list it goes from about 4.5 years of seniority or so down to less than 1 year of seniority with only a couple hundred signed up. I think a lot more will sign up as they approach the seniority they need to go to Alaska so the current numbers are very misleading.

The other part of the equation is the amount of hiring at Alaska. This is a bit of a wild card, but absent growth, there wonít be much hiring. Retirements wonít help much either. Itís a young pilot group relatively speaking. Growth and higher attrition due to pilots leaving Alaska for other airlines would really be the only factor that can keep the Pathway Program moving at a good pace.

My honest guess(itís a total guess and I hope Iím wrong on this) is that we will see some movement over the next couple of years. The pathway will look pretty good for awhile maybe even getting some pilots from Horizon to Alaska within 4 years of their hire date but then the late sign ups will start coming in and that number will begin to go more into the 5 to 7 year range or more.

Hopefully some of you can convince me otherwise.

Fixnem2Flyinem
03-16-2019, 11:57 AM
I hate to sound like a negative Nancy here but I have serious doubts about the 2 to 3 year projection. The reason? There are lots of senior pilots at Horizon that donít want to go to Alaska but that group has been bypassed more or less at this point. When you look at the list it goes from about 4.5 years of seniority or so down to less than 1 year of seniority with only a couple hundred signed up. I think a lot more will sign up as they approach the seniority they need to go to Alaska so the current numbers are very misleading.

The other part of the equation is the amount of hiring at Alaska. This is a bit of a wild card, but absent growth, there wonít be much hiring. Retirements wonít help much either. Itís a young pilot group relatively speaking. Growth and higher attrition due to pilots leaving Alaska for other airlines would really be the only factor that can keep the Pathway Program moving at a good pace.

My honest guess(itís a total guess and I hope Iím wrong on this) is that we will see some movement over the next couple of years. The pathway will look pretty good for awhile maybe even getting some pilots from Horizon to Alaska within 4 years of their hire date but then the late sign ups will start coming in and that number will begin to go more into the 5 to 7 year range or more.

Hopefully some of you can convince me otherwise.

Though none of us have that magic 8 ball, thatís a very realistic outlook on the pathway list. I think anyone hired after 2019 will be at QX 6+ years waiting for a slot. Iím sure most will just jump on other opportunities in the meantime.

cursesRedBaron
03-16-2019, 12:39 PM
Thanks for the honest feedback.

hawgwild
03-25-2019, 06:16 AM
The April 15th class is 4 pathway out of 8, so 50%.

trc8301
03-25-2019, 07:50 AM
The April 15th class is 4 pathway out of 8, so 50%.

Correct me if I'm wrong, but I'm pretty sure the goal was 50% for the year, not per class. Didn't they already have one or two that was entirely pathway kids? Admittedly, I don't pay attention as much as many seem to.

R D K
04-11-2019, 09:10 AM
I'm wondering if you guys guessing at the times above are factoring in time to meet the experience minimums at Alaska? I've got a lot of experience and am flying a 737 in Canada with my green card almost completed. I'll be applying directly with Alaska but am considering Horizon as well. Cheers

R D K
04-11-2019, 09:58 AM
I answered my own question after reading back further in this thread.

After being hired at Alaska from Horizon do you start at year one?

snackysmores
04-11-2019, 10:39 AM
I answered my own question after reading back further in this thread.

After being hired at Alaska from Horizon do you start at year one?

Yes, seniority and longevity reset.

ASpilot2be
04-11-2019, 11:22 AM
I answered my own question after reading back further in this thread.

After being hired at Alaska from Horizon do you start at year one?

Yep. We're the same airline until it comes to pay and benefits. Then we dont deserve the same benefits.

snackysmores
04-11-2019, 07:05 PM
Yep. We're the same airline until it comes to pay and benefits. Then we dont deserve the same benefits.

We're Alaska when we stand out and do something great, but if we mess up we're a 3rd party CPA contractor that's definitely not affiliated with AS.

We saw a short clip in AQP once of ATC preventing a horizon plane from having a runway incursion. The graphic depiction of the q400 had the Eskimo censored off the tail haha.

ASpilot2be
04-11-2019, 08:48 PM
We're Alaska when we stand out and do something great, but if we mess up we're a 3rd party CPA contractor that's definitely not affiliated with AS.

We saw a short clip in AQP once of ATC preventing a horizon plane from having a runway incursion. The graphic depiction of the q400 had the Eskimo censored off the tail haha.

Hahahaha. Sounds about right.

Dashdrvr
04-22-2019, 02:00 PM
Hahahaha. Sounds about right.

If the AAG cared anything about us they wouldn't be trying to remove negotiated value from our CBA at every turn. Whether we like it or not Horizon is just a money machine for AAG and will be treated accordingly(machine).

ASpilot2be
04-22-2019, 03:19 PM
If the AAG cared anything about us they wouldn't be trying to remove negotiated value from our CBA at every turn. Whether we like it or not Horizon is just a money machine for AAG and will be treated accordingly(machine).

You're absolutely right! Glad tomorrow is my last day.

ftaba1
04-22-2019, 05:20 PM
Congrats! And good luck at the new gig.
YGlad tomorrow is my last day.

ASpilot2be
04-22-2019, 10:58 PM
Congrats! And good luck at the new gig.

Thank you!

CurseURedBaron
04-22-2019, 11:49 PM
Definitely gonna need to change your screen name. Lol. Congrats. Where you headed? Sorry if youíve already mentioned it.

ASpilot2be
04-22-2019, 11:56 PM
Definitely gonna need to change your screen name. Lol. Congrats. Where you headed? Sorry if youíve already mentioned it.

Thanks! Hahahaha. It is gonna need an update. I am off to Frontier.

Excargodog
04-23-2019, 11:03 AM
Thanks! Hahahaha. It is gonna need an update. I am off to Frontier.

It says a lot that AAG was able to drive off someone with that screen name though. I am totally befuddled by how they are managing (to put it kindly) Horizon.

Good luck at the new gig.

Starchkr
04-23-2019, 03:48 PM
Iím trying to understand this but it almost seemed like the changes to the Pathway program were designed to drive away pilots in my situation.

I came with the experience to upgrade but doing so would have kept me in reserve and unable to build the required flight time with QX in a reasonable amount of time. On the other hand I would be competitive applying directly to Alaska but I was told by many that Alaska would no longer hire QXírs outside the Pathway. So basically by sticking around I would have been stagnating my career progression instead of helping it along.

Iím done. Flew my last trip. Off to an LCC. Itís too bad, it wouldnít have taken a whole lot to keep me around but it seems clear that they donít really care to put the effort into making it better. The response from management was essentially nada.

Starchkr
04-23-2019, 04:01 PM
It seems they wonít get the message until they have so many people leave or have so much trouble recruiting that they compromise $$$. But they always seem to have SkyWest to fill in if they need extra lift.

That dynamic leaves you more or less powerless to negotiate.

ASpilot2be
04-23-2019, 04:11 PM
Iím trying to understand this but it almost seemed like the changes to the Pathway program were designed to drive away pilots in my situation.

I came with the experience to upgrade but doing so would have kept me in reserve and unable to build the required flight time with QX in a reasonable amount of time. On the other hand I would be competitive applying directly to Alaska but I was told by many that Alaska would no longer hire QXírs outside the Pathway. So basically by sticking around I would have been stagnating my career progression instead of helping it along.

Iím done. Flew my last trip. Off to an LCC. Itís too bad, it wouldnít have taken a whole lot to keep me around but it seems clear that they donít really care to put the effort into making it better. The response from management was essentially nada.

Congrats! Where are you off to?