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View Full Version : Indy


Wilfortina
12-08-2018, 06:34 AM
Hi all, Iíve perused this forum up and down and canít seem to find info about the Indy base. Are there still just 2 airplanes based there? How senior/stagnant is it there? I know the whole company is stagnant right now, but does anyone have any predictions? How are the trips?

Thanks!


tom11011
12-08-2018, 07:19 AM
Hi all, Iíve perused this forum up and down and canít seem to find info about the Indy base. Are there still just 2 airplanes based there? How senior/stagnant is it there? I know the whole company is stagnant right now, but does anyone have any predictions? How are the trips?

Thanks!


There might be 3 airplanes. Indy seems like a good base, they fill up the airplane. I could see it getting bigger. Any growth in this company is directly linked to availability of used Airbus aircraft at a price they want to pay. They are an opportunistic buyer of airplanes. Aircraft availability drives the growth of this company, not the other way around.


In my opinion, its a double edged sword. On one hand, the company would be well positioned for a downturn in the economy, but on the other hand there is no growth or movement at a time when pilots are rapidly gaining in seniority at any other airline.

Vegaspilot
12-08-2018, 08:00 AM
Not sure about the Indy op, but a very good source told me no hiring in 2019.


tom11011
12-08-2018, 08:32 AM
Not sure about the Indy op, but a very good source told me no hiring in 2019.


At our current airplane count, we are probably 100 over staffed. Looks like attrition may be picking up as well as pilots make lateral moves.

Vegaspilot
12-08-2018, 08:35 AM
At our current airplane count, we are probably 100 over staffed.


Plus they are still determined to whittle it down to 7ish pilots per plane.

tom11011
12-08-2018, 08:39 AM
Plus they are still determined to whittle it down to 7ish pilots per plane.


That's the goal as stated in the 2017 Investor Day presentation, 7.6 I believe by 2020. In practice though not sure that is possible.

Vegaspilot
12-08-2018, 08:42 AM
Much like back in 2012-2013 theyíll probably make it happen just to realize how big a mistake it was and be behind the 8 ball again. But in this hiring environment they may find it impossible to catch up. This of course is assuming they even want to run an airline anymore.

crxpilot
12-08-2018, 09:12 AM
The go karts are planned to be 4.3 drivers per kart.

Wilfortina
12-08-2018, 10:22 AM
Yeah, Iíve been keeping up to date on their projected hiring; sounds like the absolute earliest would be summer, but if they actually want it around 7 pilots per plane then that wouldnít make sense.

Thanks for the info on Indy! Trying to weigh the benefits of staying local. Always like to see airlines serving IND do well with it

Busdriver4369
12-08-2018, 10:41 AM
Indy is pretty small (like 13 CA/FOs), many of which don't plan on leaving IND. If there is growth, you could probably get there but, much like many other bases, expect to be junior and on reserve for the forseeable future. I think gate availability (we only have 3, one of which is actually ours) will be a limiting factor for growth in IND.

Wilfortina
12-08-2018, 02:15 PM
Yeah, sounds like it might be that way in a lot of bases at allegiant. Movement seems hard to come by unless thereís expansion?


Sent from my iPhone using Tapatalk

ecam
12-10-2018, 09:09 AM
Much like back in 2012-2013 theyíll probably make it happen just to realize how big a mistake it was and be behind the 8 ball again. But in this hiring environment they may find it impossible to catch up. This of course is assuming they even want to run an airline anymore.

A down turn is coming. That's not sky is falling thats being realistic. If you read the other airlines on this site you will see most have stopped or slowed hiring. Nobody really knows what 2019 is going to bring but global commerce is slowing and consumer confidence is falling. Investors are selling. Today the Dow is reaching correction territory. The airlines usually lead the charge into a recession. The only thing helping right now is low oil prices but if that spikes all bets are off.

We may gripe about what management is doing but its probably a good thing to tighten the belt now. As asinine as it is the fun centers will probably make money. The resort is probably going to be a money pit if it even gets built at this point. That aside allegiant is probably well positioned to weather the downturn. Most of our planes are still paid for and can be parked for little cost. They can fly the crap out of the new/leased ones around the clock with even more redeyes and more than cover the payments. People are still going to take vacations but they will be scaling back and looking for cheaper tickets. Other airlines that have been buying back stock and spending like drunk sailors for a decade won't do as well. I wouldn't want to be at the bottom of a list right now at a legacy airline.

9easy
12-12-2018, 07:25 PM
A down turn is coming. That's not sky is falling thats being realistic. If you read the other airlines on this site you will see most have stopped or slowed hiring. Nobody really knows what 2019 is going to bring but global commerce is slowing and consumer confidence is falling. Investors are selling. Today the Dow is reaching correction territory. The airlines usually lead the charge into a recession. The only thing helping right now is low oil prices but if that spikes all bets are off.

We may gripe about what management is doing but its probably a good thing to tighten the belt now. As asinine as it is the fun centers will probably make money. The resort is probably going to be a money pit if it even gets built at this point. That aside allegiant is probably well positioned to weather the downturn. Most of our planes are still paid for and can be parked for little cost. They can fly the crap out of the new/leased ones around the clock with even more redeyes and more than cover the payments. People are still going to take vacations but they will be scaling back and looking for cheaper tickets. Other airlines that have been buying back stock and spending like drunk sailors for a decade won't do as well. I wouldn't want to be at the bottom of a list right now at a legacy airline.

Management is not tightening the budget, the lack of growth is purely due to lack of used A320 frames because of the A320NEO delay. If Summerlin could get used A320's for a reasonable price we would easily have 20-30 more frames this year and be hiring rapidly.

The most important thing any strong management team can do is #1 not lose money, and #2 asymmetrical risk. #1 - Currently ALGT has not "lost money" but debt and capital has been spent that is not currently producing any income. More importantly #2 - The company is venturing into businesses where they have no core competency. Forgetting about the fun centers for now, the Florida real estate project is already flashing warning signs. The original plan was to sell condos, now it will be a hotel. These will be relatively expensive hotels, yet the company will not advertise these rooms on any travel websites, and expects to sell them all via allegiant.com. All of this, at the top of a real estate and economic cycle. Although pilots are usually poor with all things to do economic wise, one thing we all realize is history repeats itself... and the cycle by all accounts, is towards the end. One of the things that does the worst in a downturn is Florida real estate, and high end vacation travel.

Anyone who puts blind trust in the current plan is whistling through the graveyard. Can things work out great? Sure. But it's much more likely things will turn out poorly. For the pilots, the worst case is the company will become insolvent and the airline side will be sold off to the highest bidder and hopefully pilots will retain some semblance of seniority. On the best side, the airline will become a small part of an overall travel empire and will be a continued target of cost reduction.

Releasemaster
12-12-2018, 09:59 PM
A down turn is coming. That's not sky is falling thats being realistic. If you read the other airlines on this site you will see most have stopped or slowed hiring. Nobody really knows what 2019 is going to bring but global commerce is slowing and consumer confidence is falling. Investors are selling. Today the Dow is reaching correction territory. The airlines usually lead the charge into a recession. The only thing helping right now is low oil prices but if that spikes all bets are off.

As someone that is not very in-depth with the markets, what signs are you seeing that indicate a turn in the economy? Not bashing, just trying to understand.

ecam
12-13-2018, 06:18 AM
As someone that is not very in-depth with the markets, what signs are you seeing that indicate a turn in the economy? Not bashing, just trying to understand.

I guess its gut instinct after living through 6+ down turn cycles. Do you watch the news?

disco inferno
12-13-2018, 08:12 AM
I guess its gut instinct after living through 6+ down turn cycles. Do you watch the news?
What was it like to live with all of those dinosaurs running around? :D

ecam
12-13-2018, 08:33 AM
What was it like to live with all of those dinosaurs running around? :D

Well there was no internet so the youngsters whined all the time about being bored...

disco inferno
12-13-2018, 08:39 AM
Well there was no internet so the youngsters whined all the time about being bored...
Where did you go for a safe space back then? Did they have hot chocolate and crayons for when you felt triggered?

ecam
12-13-2018, 09:11 AM
Where did you go for a safe space back then? Did they have hot chocolate and crayons for when you felt triggered?

We just beat the hell out of them. Society was a lot tougher back then. You had to be. Wussies didn't last long in Nam.

disco inferno
12-13-2018, 09:32 AM
We just beat the hell out of them. Society was a lot tougher back then. You had to be. Wussies didn't last long in Nam.
Rayyyycisss Nazi!!!!!
https://www.zerohedge.com/sites/default/files/inline-images/2018-10-27_11-07-11.jpg?itok=Jq5TQikS http://https://www.zerohedge.com/sites/default/files/inline-images/2018-10-27_11-07-11.jpg?itok=Jq5TQikS

Busdriver4369
12-13-2018, 06:09 PM
Well there was no internet so the youngsters whined all the time about being bored...

The biggest complainers and snowflakes Iíve flown with are usually the old guys. Happy holidays!

akulahunter
12-13-2018, 07:30 PM
I guess its gut instinct after living through 6+ down turn cycles. Do you watch the news?

Man, I wish I knew who you were so we could have a beer and conversation (longer than spitting out stuff on B1tch board)...

It's great that you have lived through 6+ down turns (although I think it is unlikely since you would be too old to fly. Also... are you retiring soon so I can move up a number?)... This "bull" cycle is a little different in that it was such a slow growth rate for so long that there are still (presumably) legs to grow and space to move. Most people saying that we are at an end to the cycle are saying it because it is the longest one we have ever had, not because the actual data are saying it... (also, we have never had a cycle like we are having now... Artificially low rates and QE from the government)

On your point, there is an indication that next years growth will slow. However, S&P earnings growth is estimated in the double digits. I'm pretty sure, that in a vacuum, if you asked anyone if they would take 10%+ earnings growth and a 2.5-3.5 GDP, they would take it. We are just coming off of a year (2017) where we had 20%+ growth and this year, even with the volatility, we are (currently) positive in the markets and GDP will be 3+ which is 50-100%(ish) of what it has been for the last 8-10 years.

Even with slowing housing and financial sectors, there are no indications (at least by consensus) that there is a down turn coming anytime soon (i.e. 18-24 months).

I think we'll be just fine... However, if you want to leave, I know a good tailor for your double-breasted suit and hat...

(Also, I do watch the news, at least the financial news...)



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