Airline Pilot Forums

Airline Pilot Forums was designed to be a community where working airline pilots can share ideas and information about the aviation field. In the forum you will find information about major and regional airline carriers, career training, interview and job seeker help, finance, and living the airline pilot lifestyle.




FlyingHercs
12-19-2018, 04:08 PM
Since Sliceback did me a great favor and posted the AA End of 2018 base/equipment seniority he asked me to post some of the data I have gathered recently.

All numbers are based off those available on public websites as I don't work for any of the Legacy airlines. If someone has more accurate numbers of retirements, particularly for post 2040, please pass them along. As far as I can tell I'm missing retirement dates for 640 pilots for AA and 577 for DL. As such, they are currently all showing to retire post 2050 which we know not to be true.

Assumptions:
-Hired 1/1/2019
-Retire 12/31/2050
-No growth, percentage based off current number of pilots
-Every pilot stays until age 65 (no early retirements)
-Seniority number would be as of end of year

AA
2020 - 13780 - 91%
2025 - 9300 - 61.3%
2030 - 5720 - 37.8%
2035 - 3350 - 22.2%
2040 - 2200 - 14.5%
2045 - 1400 - 9.3%
2050 - 750 - 4.9%

As far as the numbers I have only 105 pilots will retire post 2050, thus missing dates for 640 pilots.

UAL
2020 - 11860 - 94%
2025 - 9400 - 74.7%
2030 - 6070 - 48.2%
2035 - 3530 - 28.1%
2040 - 1850 - 14.7%
2045 - 780 - 6.2%
2050 - 170 - 1.4%

DL
2020 - 13000 - 92.8%
2025 - 9100 - 65%
2030 - 6400 - 45.6%
2035 - 4400 - 31.3%
2040 - 3160 - 22.6%
2045 - 1800 - 12.9%
2050 - 790 - 5.6%

Again, I only show 187 pilots retiring post 2050 so dates for 577 pilots are missing.


Obviously, not everyone will stay to 65 so theses numbers can/will be accelerated.


WhiskeyKilo
12-19-2018, 06:09 PM
This is fantastic. Lots of valuable data to consider.
Any additional data available for Southwest, FedEx/UPS, JetBlue, etc.?

Peacock
12-19-2018, 07:31 PM
I am a SWA summer 2017 hire, so the numbers are a little skewed. For me with only age 65 retirements itís roughly:

2020: 87%
2025: 77%
2030: 57%
2035: 37%
2040: 17%
2045: 5%


Han Solo
12-20-2018, 02:50 AM
I took a screen shot of my expected seniority in February, I am already 102 numbers more senior than the ALPA prediction just 10 months ago. Lots of factors will greatly accelerate the #s shown above.

sherpster
12-20-2018, 04:19 AM
I think you pretty darn close.

I started 1 year earlier than the date you gave.

AA
2020 - 13780 - 91% my AA seniority calculator shows 83%
2025 - 9300 - 61.3% my AA calculator shows 54%
2030 - 5720 - 37.8% my AA calculator shows 30%
2035 - 3350 - 22.2% my AA calculator shows 16%
2040 - 2200 - 14.5% I am on the beach
2045 - 1400 - 9.3% I am in the nursing home
2050 - 750 - 4.9% I am probably in the ground

Al Czervik
12-20-2018, 04:20 AM
I took a screen shot of my expected seniority in February, I am already 102 numbers more senior than the ALPA prediction just 10 months ago. Lots of factors will greatly accelerate the #s shown above.

What airline?

Han Solo
12-20-2018, 04:39 AM
what airline?

dal
................

Ronaldo
12-20-2018, 02:45 PM
dal
................

Sorry, with a name like Han Solo, I couldnít resist:

Your FO was swinging gear for almost 40 years. Then you died and replaced yourself with a street hire (Rey).

Progression questions?

Han Solo
12-20-2018, 03:39 PM
Sorry, with a name like Han Solo, I couldnít resist:

Your FO was swinging gear for almost 40 years. Then you died and replaced yourself with a street hire (Rey).

Progression questions?

But how did I do? Pilot mentality in a galaxy far far away.

blockplus
12-20-2018, 04:02 PM
Commander in the left. Pilot in the right. Couldnít imagine chewy on the radios. Ggggrrraaaaa... um say again.
Over and over.

FlyingHercs
12-20-2018, 04:12 PM
This is fantastic. Lots of valuable data to consider.
Any additional data available for Southwest, FedEx/UPS, JetBlue, etc.?

My data for Southwest, FedEx and UPS are less reliable and complete. Someone from here should probably chime in and correct me on these if I'm way off.

FDX
2020 - 4320 - 94.8%
2025 - 3330 - 73.1%
2030 - 2260 - 49.6%
2035 - 1340 - 29.4%
2036 - 1175 - 25.8%

I don't have data past 2036 for FDX

UPS
2020 - 2615 - 96%
2025 - 2140 - 78.6%
2030 - 1290 - 47.2%
2035 - 680 - 24.8%
2040 - 300 - 11.1%

No data past 2040

SWA
2020 - 8840 - 96.7%
2025 - 7600 - 75.3%
2030 - 5645 - 50.7%
2035 - 3620 - 29.4%
2040 - 1945 - 14.3%
2045 - 1130 - 7.7%
2050 - 920 - 6.3%

I don't really believe there are 920 pilots currently at SWA who are younger than 33 right now.

Peacock
12-20-2018, 04:58 PM
My data for Southwest, FedEx and UPS are less reliable and complete. Someone from here should probably chime in and correct me on these if I'm way off.

FDX
2020 - 4320 - 94.8%
2025 - 3330 - 73.1%
2030 - 2260 - 49.6%
2035 - 1340 - 29.4%
2036 - 1175 - 25.8%

I don't have data past 2036 for FDX

UPS
2020 - 2615 - 96%
2025 - 2140 - 78.6%
2030 - 1290 - 47.2%
2035 - 680 - 24.8%
2040 - 300 - 11.1%

No data past 2040

SWA
2020 - 8840 - 96.7%
2025 - 7600 - 75.3%
2030 - 5645 - 50.7%
2035 - 3620 - 29.4%
2040 - 1945 - 14.3%
2045 - 1130 - 7.7%
2050 - 920 - 6.3%

I don't really believe there are 920 pilots currently at SWA who are younger than 33 right now.

194 on the list 33 or younger, out of 9724. Youngest is 26

Sliceback
12-20-2018, 06:36 PM
I am a SWA summer 2017 hire, so the numbers are a little skewed. For me with only age 65 retirements itís roughly:

2020: 87%
2025: 77%
2030: 57%
2035: 37%
2040: 17%
2045: 5%

AA n/b only comparison (E190's not included) -

2020 - 89%
2025 - 59%
2030 - 28%
2035 - 13%
2040 - 6%
2045 - 2%
2050 - 1%

CA upgrade among 'only' n/b's is 69%.
CA upgrade among all pilots is 86% using pilots on active flying (13,270) per the union's Jan 3XP list (all fleets, all seats). Junior CA is 11,400.

Han Solo
12-21-2018, 06:51 AM
Commander in the left. Pilot in the right. Couldnít imagine chewy on the radios. Ggggrrraaaaa... um say again.
Over and over.

Damn common core. In my day learning to speak Wookie was mandatory in K-7.

Sliceback
12-21-2018, 10:11 AM
CA upgrade among 'only' n/b's is 69%.
CA upgrade among all pilots is 86% using pilots on active flying (13,270) per the union's Jan 3XP list (all fleets, all seats). Junior CA is 11,400.[/QUOTE]

86% is a bad comparator. Using all seniority numbers itís 76%.

Vector Victor
12-21-2018, 11:32 AM
My data for Southwest, FedEx and UPS are less reliable and complete. Someone from here should probably chime in and correct me on these if I'm way off.

FDX
2020 - 4320 - 94.8%
2025 - 3330 - 73.1%
2030 - 2260 - 49.6%
2035 - 1340 - 29.4%
2036 - 1175 - 25.8%

I don't have data past 2036 for FDX

UPS
2020 - 2615 - 96%
2025 - 2140 - 78.6%
2030 - 1290 - 47.2%
2035 - 680 - 24.8%
2040 - 300 - 11.1%

No data past 2040

SWA
2020 - 8840 - 96.7%
2025 - 7600 - 75.3%
2030 - 5645 - 50.7%
2035 - 3620 - 29.4%
2040 - 1945 - 14.3%
2045 - 1130 - 7.7%
2050 - 920 - 6.3%

I don't really believe there are 920 pilots currently at SWA who are younger than 33 right now.

Half of SWAís pilot group is retiring by 2030? I didnít realize they had that much turnover so quickly.

Peacock
12-21-2018, 12:45 PM
Half of SWAís pilot group is retiring by 2030? I didnít realize they had that much turnover so quickly.


Thatís off. There are 9700 pilots now so 5600 wouldnít be 50%. Obviously all these donít factor in growth. If SW keeps hiring anywhere near the last few years the numbers will be very different.

tomgoodman
12-21-2018, 12:55 PM
Damn common core. In my day learning to speak Wookie was mandatory in K-7.

My new-hire class included four Wookies and five Sasquatches! :D

FlyingHercs
12-21-2018, 01:37 PM
Thatís off. There are 9700 pilots now so 5600 wouldnít be 50%. Obviously all these donít factor in growth. If SW keeps hiring anywhere near the last few years the numbers will be very different.

Yup good catch. Somehow I had 9160 as the total SWA pilots. But since if you add up all the retirements I have through 2051 it is 8228 and there are 194 younger than 33, that leaves ~1275 pilots unaccounted for (13% of the total seniority list).

No matter how you slice it, things look good right now.

RckyMtHigh
12-21-2018, 04:34 PM
AA n/b only comparison (E190's not included) -

2020 - 89%
2025 - 59%
2030 - 28%
2035 - 13%
2040 - 6%
2045 - 2%
2050 - 1%

CA upgrade among 'only' n/b's is 69%.
CA upgrade among all pilots is 86% using pilots on active flying (13,270) per the union's Jan 3XP list (all fleets, all seats). Junior CA is 11,400.

Good point.

FlyingHercs
12-22-2018, 05:25 AM
194 on the list 33 or younger, out of 9724. Youngest is 26

Do you have the rest of the retirements per year? PM is ok too. It's obvious that the numbers posted on APC are wrong

Peacock
12-22-2018, 07:58 AM
Do you have the rest of the retirements per year? PM is ok too. It's obvious that the numbers posted on APC are wrong

Hereís what I came up with

2018 3 left
2019 131
2020 159
2021 194
2022 191
2023 236
2024 283
2025 315
2026 383
2027 407
2028 405
2029 409
2030 416
2031 409
2032 407
2033 411
2034 486
2035 502
2036 435
2037 433
2038 422
2039 415
2040 394

Peacock
12-22-2018, 11:11 AM
2041 325
2042 265
2043 232
2044 208
2045 207
2046 172
2047 150
2048 126
2049 90
2050 45
2051 18
2052 12
2053 11
2054 5
2055 7
2056 4
2057 3