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Longhornmaniac8
12-23-2018, 09:25 PM
With the latest shuffling around, it sounds like XJT is going to get the 25 175s (likely at the expense of GJS' 25 700s), and I think I read they intend to base them at IAH. This sounds more like a realignment of carriers (at the expense of Mesa) than growth, but I could be wrong about that.

In his most recent letter, BB noted that none of this was unexpected, but I must admit, I don't really see how IAH fits into our plans. The legacies, for the most part, are scope limited, meaning it's hard to envision the growth that others in the C-Level Suites seem to expect with these new airframes.

Perhaps I'm just too inexperienced in this field and a worry-wort, but I can't help but call into question YX's IAH base. It's half the size of the next smallest base (and hasn't grown in the 6 months it's been open), and while the winter season will see a normal reduction in flying, I just don't see where any growth at this base will come from in the short-to-medium term.

Will it be additional flying at the expense of Mesa? Banking on scope relief and subsequent growth? Something else we just can't see/know yet (certainly the most likely)?

Anyone else have any thoughts?

Happy Holidays!


knewyork
12-24-2018, 06:26 AM
With the latest shuffling around, it sounds like XJT is going to get the 25 175s (likely at the expense of GJS' 25 700s), and I think I read they intend to base them at IAH. This sounds more like a realignment of carriers (at the expense of Mesa) than growth, but I could be wrong about that.

In his most recent letter, BB noted that none of this was unexpected, but I must admit, I don't really see how IAH fits into our plans. The legacies, for the most part, are scope limited, meaning it's hard to envision the growth that others in the C-Level Suites seem to expect with these new airframes.

Perhaps I'm just too inexperienced in this field and a worry-wort, but I can't help but call into question YX's IAH base. It's half the size of the next smallest base (and hasn't grown in the 6 months it's been open), and while the winter season will see a normal reduction in flying, I just don't see where any growth at this base will come from in the short-to-medium term.

Will it be additional flying at the expense of Mesa? Banking on scope relief and subsequent growth? Something else we just can't see/know yet (certainly the most likely)?

Anyone else have any thoughts?

Happy Holidays!

If it makes you feel better, there were 8 CA vacancies in IAH for May. Thatís some growth.

Viking6
12-24-2018, 08:40 AM
Itís too early to tell what impact the ExpessJet 170 will have on our IAH base. I suspect we would keep a token base in IAH (like MCI) regardless.


greendotplus10
12-24-2018, 09:21 AM
Some observations I've made so far:

We are really a small player in IAH, with around 20 lines/seat/month. Mesa has around 180 lines/seat/month (info from forum) and 60 aircraft in IAH (according to website). ExpressJet has a significant presence too, and with their first 5 Ejets going to IAH, the flying is going to have to come at the expense of another Express carrier, due to United scope limits. Also, all of these operators in IAH are staying afloat because of United. Republic has done just a little bit of Delta and American flying, but not consistently.

Mesa has Ejet contracts that start to expire mid 2019. United can choose whether or not to extend those. Also from the Mesa forum, there is talk that some of their airplanes (which are mostly leased from UA) will go to ORD. This could happen with ExpressJet too. If so, it must mean United doesn't care that we already have an ORD base, with many (senior) captains eager to get based there. If ORD shrinks even more at Republic where will those captains go to escape reserve?

At least now we are starting to see some evidence that the company is working on growing IAH. FO and CA vacancies have been steady, and the May 2019 award has more CA vacancies than usual. If the FLICA denied awards report is a valid measure of pilots looking for captain in IAH, then next month we'll see the most junior IAH captain improve by 1 year, putting it on par with the rest of the more senior captain bases.

TangoIndiaMike1
12-24-2018, 05:55 PM
With the latest shuffling around, it sounds like XJT is going to get the 25 175s (likely at the expense of GJS' 25 700s), and I think I read they intend to base them at IAH. This sounds more like a realignment of carriers (at the expense of Mesa) than growth, but I could be wrong about that.



In his most recent letter, BB noted that none of this was unexpected, but I must admit, I don't really see how IAH fits into our plans. The legacies, for the most part, are scope limited, meaning it's hard to envision the growth that others in the C-Level Suites seem to expect with these new airframes.



Perhaps I'm just too inexperienced in this field and a worry-wort, but I can't help but call into question YX's IAH base. It's half the size of the next smallest base (and hasn't grown in the 6 months it's been open), and while the winter season will see a normal reduction in flying, I just don't see where any growth at this base will come from in the short-to-medium term.



Will it be additional flying at the expense of Mesa? Banking on scope relief and subsequent growth? Something else we just can't see/know yet (certainly the most likely)?



Anyone else have any thoughts?



Happy Holidays!


Express jets not even getting the 25 until the end of 2019.

At what rate are bases supposed to grow? Iím still new to the industry so I really donít know.

I donít actually know the length of time Republic will have a Houston base. I know itís not cheap to get a crew room, base supervisors office, parking, MX, costs incurred if it closes to move pilots out, increased hotel costs due to using less rooms( maybe this is a thing? Idk), and everything else needed I donít know about to open a base. They wouldnít open a base just to waste money so I would put my money on it being here for a few years at least. We have some type of guaranteed flying. On the other hand it could end up like Chicago.
We can early vote on our contract at the end of next year too.



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flynd94
12-24-2018, 06:34 PM
Express jets not even getting the 25 until the end of 2019.
Sent from my iPhone using Tapatalk


If April 2019 to start revenue service in June 2019 is the end of 2019 then you need help with eve definition of end.

boyracer
12-24-2018, 08:00 PM
Express jets not even getting the 25 until the end of 2019.

First plane arrives in April and enters service in June. We start getting 3 planes a month starting in May.

4V14T0R
12-25-2018, 02:17 PM
Express jets not even getting the 25 until the end of 2019.

At what rate are bases supposed to grow? Iím still new to the industry so I really donít know.

I donít actually know the length of time Republic will have a Houston base. I know itís not cheap to get a crew room, base supervisors office, parking, MX, costs incurred if it closes to move pilots out, increased hotel costs due to using less rooms( maybe this is a thing? Idk), and everything else needed I donít know about to open a base. They wouldnít open a base just to waste money so I would put my money on it being here for a few years at least. We have some type of guaranteed flying. On the other hand it could end up like Chicago.
We can early vote on our contract at the end of next year too.



Sent from my iPhone using Tapatalk



Stop worrying about Republicís IAH base. Itís not going to close anytime soon.


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Tpinks
12-29-2018, 05:34 PM
With the latest shuffling around, it sounds like XJT is going to get the 25 175s (likely at the expense of GJS' 25 700s), and I think I read they intend to base them at IAH. This sounds more like a realignment of carriers (at the expense of Mesa) than growth, but I could be wrong about that.

In his most recent letter, BB noted that none of this was unexpected, but I must admit, I don't really see how IAH fits into our plans. The legacies, for the most part, are scope limited, meaning it's hard to envision the growth that others in the C-Level Suites seem to expect with these new airframes.

Perhaps I'm just too inexperienced in this field and a worry-wort, but I can't help but call into question YX's IAH base. It's half the size of the next smallest base (and hasn't grown in the 6 months it's been open), and while the winter season will see a normal reduction in flying, I just don't see where any growth at this base will come from in the short-to-medium term.

Will it be additional flying at the expense of Mesa? Banking on scope relief and subsequent growth? Something else we just can't see/know yet (certainly the most likely)?

Anyone else have any thoughts?

Happy Holidays!

Republic does not open bases without a contract with the mainline carrier for a certain time interval. 3 years is the shortest they would consider to open a base is what a head manager told my new hire class. That is supposedly why it took the base so long to happen, United only wanted to guarantee flying for 2 years.

Also consider, Houston was already a well established operation for us prior to it being a base. There was no influx of new flying when we announced it. All that essentially happened by opening a base there was removing the commute for our local crews and giving the company better flexibility for hiccups that would occur in Houston. We are also doing some long reaching flights out of there, so having maintenance there is important which is why it's a maintenance base now.

Some observations I've made so far:

We are really a small player in IAH, with around 20 lines/seat/month. Mesa has around 180 lines/seat/month (info from forum) and 60 aircraft in IAH (according to website). ExpressJet has a significant presence too, and with their first 5 Ejets going to IAH, the flying is going to have to come at the expense of another Express carrier, due to United scope limits. Also, all of these operators in IAH are staying afloat because of United. Republic has done just a little bit of Delta and American flying, but not consistently.

Mesa has Ejet contracts that start to expire mid 2019. United can choose whether or not to extend those. Also from the Mesa forum, there is talk that some of their airplanes (which are mostly leased from UA) will go to ORD. This could happen with ExpressJet too. If so, it must mean United doesn't care that we already have an ORD base, with many (senior) captains eager to get based there. If ORD shrinks even more at Republic where will those captains go to escape reserve?

At least now we are starting to see some evidence that the company is working on growing IAH. FO and CA vacancies have been steady, and the May 2019 award has more CA vacancies than usual. If the FLICA denied awards report is a valid measure of pilots looking for captain in IAH, then next month we'll see the most junior IAH captain improve by 1 year, putting it on par with the rest of the more senior captain bases.

You aren't really comparing apples to apples though. Mesa has all of their 175's and crews based there while our IAH flying is performed by the IAH based crews as well as multiple other bases. So while our lines are few, we still do a decent amount of flying out of there. Granted we are still 3rd behind both Expressjet and Mesa.

If April 2019 to start revenue service in June 2019 is the end of 2019 then you need help with eve definition of end.
From April to year's end is 8 months, at 3/mo, they won't have 25 planes until year's end, which I believe is what Tango was trying to say.

flynd94
12-30-2018, 06:43 AM
From April to year's end is 8 months, at 3/mo, they won't have 25 planes until year's end, which I believe is what Tango was trying to say.

Hmmm, letís see if my old school math is correct:
April-1
May-3
June-3
July-3
August-3
September-3
October-3
November-3
December-3

If I can add that equals 25 aircraft. In UA press release it states all 25 aircraft will be delivered/in service by December 2019.

Tpinks
01-01-2019, 03:45 PM
Hmmm, letís see if my old school math is correct:
April-1
May-3
June-3
July-3
August-3
September-3
October-3
November-3
December-3

If I can add that equals 25 aircraft. In UA press release it states all 25 aircraft will be delivered/in service by December 2019.

Wow you are dense and obviously canít comprehend what is being said.

25 by april? Nope
25 by May? Nope
25 by June? Nope
25 by July? Nope
25 by August? Nope
25 by September? Nope
25 by October? Nope
25 November? Still no
25 By the end of 2019 (December)? Ding ding ding... exactly what I said.