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dino87
12-31-2018, 11:35 AM
2 part question: I know there is a delay in getting into training, so after going through training, which base would have the least time on reserve? ( and yes I know, 3 months from now that can change, so maybe the question should be which bases are known for short reserve times). After making a line, if a FO is wanting to fly as much as possible, how many hours can they realistically expect to fly each month at Republic?


starkutt1
12-31-2018, 03:10 PM
2 part question: I know there is a delay in getting into training, so after going through training, which base would have the least time on reserve? ( and yes I know, 3 months from now that can change, so maybe the question should be which bases are known for short reserve times). After making a line, if a FO is wanting to fly as much as possible, how many hours can they realistically expect to fly each month at Republic?

Refer to the thread that says mosthly base drop

greendotplus10
12-31-2018, 03:26 PM
Junior Lines and Base Assignments is a very relevant thread for your questions. See page 7, there's some good data for you there.

I'd be using that information to get some idea of what would be good choices to get off reserve as soon as possible if that is a priority. Generally that means, you need to choose a large base, and a base where guys will be coming in behind you. IND, CMH, and LGA are and have historically been good at providing quick lines. EWR is large, but has been known for more reserve. The data shows that. MIA and IAH are small and senior, so much more reserve there. Okay if you live there, not so much if you don't. Lately though, more FOs are on reserve company wide than in recent times. That's the case because this year's hiring surpassed growth. So, reserve times may increase, but the quickest to a line bases will probably stay the same because new hires are going to the same bases.

Flight times: 25-50 hours reserve, 80-90 line, plus anything you choose to pick up or volunteer for on days off, subject to FAR 117.


planesense
01-01-2019, 12:14 PM
...a base where guys will be coming in behind you.

A somewhat-related question... I hear this a lot, but isnít it more important whatís happening in front of you, vs. behind you? Iím on a training delay right now, so there isnít anyone coming in behind me; however, people in front of me are upgrading and moving to other bases, so Iím still moving up the list while I sit at home.

DiamondDriver
01-01-2019, 03:35 PM
A somewhat-related question... I hear this a lot, but isnít it more important whatís happening in front of you, vs. behind you? Iím on a training delay right now, so there isnít anyone coming in behind me; however, people in front of me are upgrading and moving to other bases, so Iím still moving up the list while I sit at home.

While that is true, and good that people are upgrading / moving bases. No matter how much seniority you gain it wonít mean much if thereís no one behind you. Youíre unfortunately still at the bottom.

**Hypothetically** Come time to upgrade, the seniority youíre gaining will be good because the people below you...potentially will be a few months below you in terms of flight time so the chances of a delay in upgrading are smaller. **Hypothetically**

planesense
01-01-2019, 04:41 PM
No matter how much seniority you gain it wonít mean much if thereís no one behind you. Youíre unfortunately still at the bottom.

I still don't get this... If Republic decided to never hire another FO, I would still move up the seniority list just as fast as if they hired 1,000,000 FO's tomorrow. On the other hand, if the rate at which Republic captains moved on to the majors suddenly doubled, then I would start moving up the list faster. Or, let's pretend those 100 new jets were going to all be placed in service in the next 6 months (wouldn't that be nice), but for some reason no new FO's were hired during that time... I promise you I would move up the list VERY quickly. I just don't see how it matters how many people are below you in seniority. I'm much more interested in what's happening with the people above me.

ninerdriver
01-01-2019, 04:59 PM
I still don't get this... If Republic decided to never hire another FO, I would still move up the seniority list just as fast as if they hired 1,000,000 FO's tomorrow. On the other hand, if the rate at which Republic captains moved on to the majors suddenly doubled, then I would start moving up the list faster. Or, let's pretend those 100 new jets were going to all be placed in service in the next 6 months (wouldn't that be nice), but for some reason no new FO's were hired during that time... I promise you I would move up the list VERY quickly. I just don't see how it matters how many people are below you in seniority. I'm much more interested in what's happening with the people above me.

There will always be a set number of pilots on the bottom on reserve. If YX never hired another FO again, you'd be on reserve forever.

Seniority doesn't matter when you have no one to exercise it over.

planesense
01-01-2019, 05:14 PM
There will always be a set number of pilots on the bottom on reserve. If YX never hired another FO again, you'd be on reserve forever.

Seniority doesn't matter when you have no one to exercise it over.

So all the captains would eventually move on to the majors or retire, then all the line-holding FO's would upgrade to captain, and all the FO's on reserve would just stay there, simply because there's no one behind them? Sorry, this is just highly illogical. The pipeline has to keep moving regardless of how many FO's get hired behind you.

Longhornmaniac8
01-01-2019, 06:10 PM
So all the captains would eventually move on to the majors or retire, then all the line-holding FO's would upgrade to captain, and all the FO's on reserve would just stay there, simply because there's no one behind them? Sorry, this is just highly illogical. The pipeline has to keep moving regardless of how many FO's get hired behind you.

I think y'all are arguing past one another because of an impossible hypothetical that makes the whole thought exercise irrelevant.

In an event where YX didn't hire another FO, the airline would only allow upgrades to the point where the ratio of CAs to FOs was where the airline wanted it. At the bottom of the totem pole, you would stay there.

Now, more to the point in the real world, the training delay is not really that big a deal as it pertains to your seniority. I'm also on the delay, and they've continued hiring and there are close to 100 people below me on the seniority list now as of the December 2018 list posted on Comply. From February to April (or whenever they're resuming classes), I will progress toward an upgrade due to upgrades and retirements of those ahead of me, but my ability to hold a line as an FO will not improve until they start hiring people in behind me to backfill those reserve slots.

The reason they're doing this delay to begin with is to right-size what is an oversized FO group. By putting the pause on the flow of new hires into the FO side, they allow that group to right-size itself through upgrades and attrition. The CA side of things will continue unabated due to attrition and retirements, creating the movement to right-size the FO group.

TL;DR: You will move up the list as a function of total pilots, but not as a percentage, progressing toward upgrade but not lineholder.

planesense
01-01-2019, 06:42 PM
I think y'all are arguing past one another because of an impossible hypothetical that makes the whole thought exercise irrelevant.

In an event where YX didn't hire another FO, the airline would only allow upgrades to the point where the ratio of CAs to FOs was where the airline wanted it. At the bottom of the totem pole, you would stay there.

Now, more to the point in the real world, the training delay is not really that big a deal as it pertains to your seniority. I'm also on the delay, and they've continued hiring and there are close to 100 people below me on the seniority list now as of the December 2018 list posted on Comply. From February to April (or whenever they're resuming classes), I will progress toward an upgrade due to upgrades and retirements of those ahead of me, but my ability to hold a line as an FO will not improve until they start hiring people in behind me to backfill those reserve slots.

The reason they're doing this delay to begin with is to right-size what is an oversized FO group. By putting the pause on the flow of new hires into the FO side, they allow that group to right-size itself through upgrades and attrition. The CA side of things will continue unabated due to attrition and retirements, creating the movement to right-size the FO group.

TL;DR: You will move up the list as a function of total pilots, but not as a percentage, progressing toward upgrade but not lineholder.

I understand itís all hypothetical, but itís certainly not irrelevant... Follow me on this:

1. Captains retire/leave, which leaves vacancies
2. FOs upgrade to fill those vacancies
3. Remaining FO line-holders move up the list leaving vacancies at the bottom.
4. Reserve FOs start holding a line to fill those vacancies.

#4 is where we have our problem. And honestly, maybe Iím wrong... but why would anyone block #4 from happening just because there arenít enough FOís to remain on reserve?

Iím happy to wave the white flag here, not trying to be difficult... Iím sure Iíll understand this a whole lot better in 6 months.

DiveAndDrive
01-01-2019, 08:18 PM
Planesense, let me give you a couple of examples to hopefully help clear the air. As someone else said, you have to have people below you to exercise the privileges of seniority.

Generic example A:
Youíre in 8th grade. Youíre the king of the middle school youíre in. You get to take the cool classes, all of the younger kids think youíre the coolest, and you get all the hot chicks.

Well. You move on to 9th grade. You change buildings and go to high school. So youíre still senior to grades K through 8. But guess what? It doesnít mean anything, since youíre in a completely different building now. You went from being the king of the campus to the doormat of the campus.

Letís apply this to examples B, C, and possibly D.

Example B: The company wants 10% of Pilots to be on reserve. Youíre number 93 out of 100 on the seniority list. So you get reserve. Next month rolls around, 10 of those people upgrade, but no one is hired to replace those 10. So now youíre number 83 out of 90. Guess what? Your seniority moved up, but your privileges did not, since youíll still be on reserve. Letís step through this example a few times. Each month, weíre upgrading 10 and replacing it with zero. Fast forward, and now youíre 33 out of 40. Now you have a line. So do the three people below you. So even though youíre the 33rd most senior FO in the company, it doesnít matter since youíre only bidding above three other line holders, and 7 total people. Remember how bidding works. The most senior person gets what they want. The second most senior person gets to pick what they want, unless it was taken by the first most senior person. Then, they get their second choice. This goes on down the list. So if youíre the 33rd most senior FO, but youíre only bidding above 3 other lineholders, basically you get to bid for 4 lines. If youíre literally the last most senior lineholder, you may as well not even bid, because youíre going to get whatís left over. Although, take that statement with a grain of salt. Itís hypothetical and generic. Republic uses preferential bidding, but thatís a whole different can of worms. For simplicity sake, just roll with it. In this example, it would have taken you 3 months to get a line.

So letís take the same example and roll it into example C.

Itís the same set up as above. Company wants to maintain 10% of first officers as reserves. 10 people will get upgraded each month. This time, those 10 pilots will also be replaced. So you start off month one, number 93 out of 100. Month two, youíre 83 out of 100, and have a line. Not only would you have a line, but youíd also be able to outbid 8 other people. This is why having people below you is so important.

Longhornmaniac8
01-01-2019, 08:18 PM
I understand itís all hypothetical, but itís certainly not irrelevant... Follow me on this:

1. Captains retire/leave, which leaves vacancies
2. FOs upgrade to fill those vacancies
3. Remaining FO line-holders move up the list leaving vacancies at the bottom.
4. Reserve FOs start holding a line to fill those vacancies.

#4 is where we have our problem. And honestly, maybe Iím wrong... but why would anyone block #4 from happening just because there arenít enough FOís to remain on reserve?

Iím happy to wave the white flag here, not trying to be difficult... Iím sure Iíll understand this a whole lot better in 6 months.

You can't just leave a system without any reserve coverage. Going off your numbering:

1. Will happen, whether YX wants it to or not. They can't do anything about this.

2. This will also happen, but management will control it and stop it if they need to.

3. True, but this is where you start to run into problems.

4. Unfilled reserve vacancies will never happen.

When #1 and #2 inevitably happen, the airline has no choice but to give up flying if there's nothing coming in at the bottom.

Reserve coverage is an operational necessity. X% of the each seat needs to be reserve, otherwise your performance metrics will plummet. If a pilot calls in sick, and you have no reserve, at some point a flight is getting canceled. In your hypothetical, with nothing flowing into to refill that reserve need, the only way to achieve that coverage at the levels they want is to shrink the airline. I'll illustrate it below.

Let's say there's 230 pilots in the airline, 100 CA and 130 FO, which reflects our current overstaffing situation on the FO side, with 25% reserve. 25 CA are reserve, and 33 FO are reserve.

50 CA leave through retirement and attrition. So 50 FOs upgrade, right?

Not really. Because then you have 100 CA and only 80 FOs, so we're not balanced.

To keep it balanced, you'd only upgrade 40, so now we have 90 CA and 90 FO. Note that our possible coverage has gone down by 10 pilots, because whereas before we had 100 CA, now we only have 90.

Of those 90 seats a side, 25% are still reserve, meaning 23 seats a side.

So if you're at the bottom of the list, you're now 90 out of 90, instead of 140 out of 140, meaning you're only 90 spots away from an upgrade (instead of 140). In that sense, you've moved up 50 spots. But because there's still 25% reserve, there will be 23 pilots on reserve, and you will be one of them. In that sense, you haven't moved up at all.

4V14T0R
01-02-2019, 04:43 AM
In his scenario with attrition at the top and no growth at bottom you would shrink to be rightly staffed and upgrades would slow and maybe stop. Airplanes would be parked. Your situation wouldnít get any better. This situation does not apply whatsoever to what is currently going on as we are still hiring and adding to the bottom.


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planesense
01-02-2019, 04:55 AM
So if Iím understanding correctly, keeping a balance of CA and FO, as well as line vs. reserve, is paramount, even if that means canceling flights in an extreme case? I guess itís better to not have the flight scheduled in the first place vs having to cancel at the last minute because the FO got sick, and thereís no reserve pilot to step in. Am I on the right track?

4V14T0R
01-02-2019, 07:33 AM
So if Iím understanding correctly, keeping a balance of CA and FO, as well as line vs. reserve, is paramount, even if that means canceling flights in an extreme case? I guess itís better to not have the flight scheduled in the first place vs having to cancel at the last minute because the FO got sick, and thereís no reserve pilot to step in. Am I on the right track?



Thatís the dynamic of FFD. You gamble a little by accepting a contract to fly X amount of flights. I think youíre looking at it backwards. We are betting we can cover these flights. We can more than cover them. Currently we have about 4-500 more pilots than we need. Management is banking on more flying this year based on how much they are over staffed.


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TheWeatherman
01-02-2019, 11:22 AM
So if Iím understanding correctly, keeping a balance of CA and FO, as well as line vs. reserve, is paramount, even if that means canceling flights in an extreme case? I guess itís better to not have the flight scheduled in the first place vs having to cancel at the last minute because the FO got sick, and thereís no reserve pilot to step in. Am I on the right track?
Now you know the difference between a ****ty regional with horrible performance metrics and a good regional.

dera
01-04-2019, 08:24 PM
Let's say there's 230 pilots in the airline, 100 CA and 130 FO, which reflects our current overstaffing situation on the FO side, with 25% reserve. 25 CA are reserve, and 33 FO are reserve.

50 CA leave through retirement and attrition. So 50 FOs upgrade, right?

Not really. Because then you have 100 CA and only 80 FOs, so we're not balanced.

To keep it balanced, you'd only upgrade 40, so now we have 90 CA and 90 FO. Note that our possible coverage has gone down by 10 pilots, because whereas before we had 100 CA, now we only have 90.

Of those 90 seats a side, 25% are still reserve, meaning 23 seats a side.

So if you're at the bottom of the list, you're now 90 out of 90, instead of 140 out of 140, meaning you're only 90 spots away from an upgrade (instead of 140). In that sense, you've moved up 50 spots. But because there's still 25% reserve, there will be 23 pilots on reserve, and you will be one of them. In that sense, you haven't moved up at all.

GoJet/TSA used to fly CA's as FOs because of the misbalance you mention.
And Piedmont had negative reserve coverage.
So both situations do exist, but really aren't ideal to anyone.
Just like you guys mention. If you're at the bottom, you're at the bottom. You need people behind you to benefit from seniority.

Longhornmaniac8
01-05-2019, 04:34 AM
GoJet/TSA used to fly CA's as FOs because of the misbalance you mention.

And Piedmont had negative reserve coverage.

So both situations do exist, but really aren't ideal to anyone.

Just like you guys mention. If you're at the bottom, you're at the bottom. You need people behind you to benefit from seniority.Good points.

I should probably say that no airline will willingly choose to move people up at the expense of reserve coverage.

In extreme situations, it can happen, but it's not ideal, and I'd bet their performance metrics suffered.

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metalfeather
01-05-2019, 12:57 PM
Can we conclude that, for FOs, holding a line requires new hires behind you, while getting a better line requires movement in front of you?

Now I want to spend some time in Comply to find how scheduling assigns trips to reserve pilots. There has to be a priority, preference or some other method to determine who is called first and who is last.

ninerdriver
01-05-2019, 12:58 PM
Can we conclude that, for FOs, holding a line requires new hires behind you, while getting a better line requires movement in front of you?

Briefly: yes.

TheWeatherman
01-05-2019, 06:48 PM
Briefly: yes.
and also no. There were some months during the spring and summer where a few bases had zero FO reserves. But then again we had more Captains then FOs, so that's why. I do not expect to see a repeat this year.

Web265
01-06-2019, 07:25 AM
Now I want to spend some time in Comply to find how scheduling assigns trips to reserve pilots. There has to be a priority, preference or some other method to determine who is called first and who is last.
Generally speaking,

4. Priority for Reserve Assignments
The priority for Reserve Assignments shall be
made as follows subject to operational needs
and in accordance with Article 7.C:
a. LCR, Proactive Pick-Up; then
b. LCR, Bucket System, FIFO; then
c. Any LCR; then
d. SCR, in Base, Bucket System, FIFO, then
e. Any SCR.



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