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View Full Version : My takeaway from Flight Path / V1


ImperialxRat
01-18-2019, 08:53 PM
Flightpath:
We are going to grow California by being awesome and giving our guests our secret sauce.

V1:
Brad doesn't understand why we need Scope, says the 86,000# or 76 seat limitation is an arbitrary number and he doesn't understand why it matters, also does not know what other airlines scope clause entails, says the new E175 E2 is a great plane and is 99,000# and he would like to get 82 seats in it.

Brad says we now have ~100 regional turboprops/jets flying for us, but do not worry about scope because no Alaska pilot has lost any flying due to a regional.

Brad says we should be glad we're not the highest paid pilots because companies with the highest paid pilots go bankrupt.


Klsytakesit
01-18-2019, 10:59 PM
Sounds like time well spent....He is either a boy scout liar or a boy scout dunce.....by the amount of Boeing open time and premium time being picked up we are happy having a lying dunce chart the course for us...Yay team

ZINTKAZ
01-19-2019, 01:12 AM
Why did you have to bring up that dreadful required koolaid bonging session. Triggered me into flashbacks of projectile vomiting and explosive diarrhea.


Beta82
01-19-2019, 06:14 AM
Sounds like you got way more out of it than I did.

I don't know why management would stand up there and say these kinds of things. I want to believe these are smart guys, they should know they aren't going to convince Alaska pilots that it's cool to let other airlines fly our passengers on almost as capable aircraft with no concerns for our livelihood.

FWIW Ben said that he knows scope is coming when Brad wasn't there. My only concern is that this pilot group gets so wrapped up over a tiny scope win ( which is desperately needed to build on, if anything) and some pay rate of 263 ( marginal increase ) that we miss all the of real issues like schedule, work rules, vacation, legacy reserve rules, etc.

There's some wise pilot out there that once said, "Money is made in the work rules."

full of luv
01-19-2019, 09:33 AM
Flightpath:
We are going to grow California by being awesome and giving our guests our secret sauce.

V1:
Brad doesn't understand why we need Scope, says the 86,000# or 76 seat limitation is an arbitrary number and he doesn't understand why it matters, also does not know what other airlines scope clause entails, says the new E175 E2 is a great plane and is 99,000# and he would like to get 82 seats in it.

Brad says we now have ~100 regional turboprops/jets flying for us, but do not worry about scope because no Alaska pilot has lost any flying due to a regional.

Brad says we should be glad we're not the highest paid pilots because companies with the highest paid pilots go bankrupt.

Doesn't Skywest have some MRJ on order that will exceed most airlines scope limitations?

sailingfun
01-19-2019, 09:46 AM
Doesn't Skywest have some MRJ on order that will exceed most airlines scope limitations?

They do however no one expects them to take delivery. If they are in the fleet regardless of who they are flown for they violate Delta’s scope.

Snuffaluffagus
01-19-2019, 12:22 PM
At least the food and free booze was pretty good!


I, too, heard straight from Ben's mouth when I was there that "you guys are getting scope. It's inevitable." Of course, he's a politician, so it ain't true till it's in the contract.


First day is just a jerk off fest. The wifi sucked and I was bored out of my mind. V1 was a good way to express to the Bobs how we feel. They don't care of course.

echelon
01-19-2019, 02:11 PM
I, too, heard straight from Ben's mouth when I was there that "you guys are getting scope. It's inevitable." Of course, he's a politician, so it ain't true till it's in the contract.


I'm willing to bet he even believes himself when he says we'll have "scope" and he's probably telling the truth in his own way. Unfortunately, his definition of "scope" and ours are probably two very different things.

The fact is, getting scope that includes limits on seat count, MGTOW, and number of regional airplanes, will be like putting toothpaste back in the tube after AS already gave it away. Ben might be talking about agreeing to keep things status quo without adding RJ's with any more SEATS than they have now, but I guarantee he isn't talking about limiting the size of the fleet, let alone shrinking it, and we're still a year or more's worth of RJ growth/orders away from even negotiating.

He may indeed be willing to give us scope. Industry standard scope... Is another story.

DangleDunlops
01-19-2019, 05:29 PM
Flight path served me well and one fact remained.

I need to leave this airline as quickly as possible.

rickair7777
01-19-2019, 05:38 PM
I'm willing to bet he even believes himself when he says we'll have "scope" and he's probably telling the truth in his own way. Unfortunately, his definition of "scope" and ours are probably two very different things.

The fact is, getting scope that includes limits on seat count, MGTOW, and number of regional airplanes, will be like putting toothpaste back in the tube after AS already gave it away. Ben might be talking about agreeing to keep things status quo without adding RJ's with any more SEATS than they have now, but I guarantee he isn't talking about limiting the size of the fleet, let alone shrinking it, and we're still a year or more's worth of RJ growth/orders away from even negotiating.

He may indeed be willing to give us scope. Industry standard scope... Is another story.

Locking in status quo is the best you're going to get, no way is any toothpaste going back in the tube. Probably better not drag the contract out too long, or those 190's might show up at QX.

For contrast, 50% of UAL departures are UAX...

Wynncore
01-20-2019, 09:48 AM
AS will get scope...on the company's terms. In return for that, the AS pilot group will be forced to accept less in Contract 2020...which is going to be a process that will make the 2016-2017 process look like a Kindergarten sing-a-long.

AJ Crowley
01-20-2019, 11:30 AM
AS will get scope...on the company's terms. In return for that, the AS pilot group will be forced to accept less in Contract 2020...which is going to be a process that will make the 2016-2017 process look like a Kindergarten sing-a-long.

screw that we have nothing to give! The old guard is on their way out of this pilot group. We will fight, and get a good contract including scope, or burn this place to ground trying. Time for B&B to pay!!!

Outdoors
01-20-2019, 11:47 AM
AS will get scope...on the company's terms. In return for that, the AS pilot group will be forced to accept less in Contract 2020...which is going to be a process that will make the 2016-2017 process look like a Kindergarten sing-a-long.

Just say no! Wtf?!

Wynncore
01-20-2019, 01:47 PM
screw that we have nothing to give! The old guard is on their way out of this pilot group. We will fight, and get a good contract including scope, or burn this place to ground trying. Time for B&B to pay!!!

I agree! And I hope that they do, because the pilot group deserves it. All I'm saying is that they've (AAG) have won on the scope issue time and time and time again. Even the arbitrators punted on it which only further sets precedence that creates an uphill battle on the issue for the pilots. Because the contract literally has zero scope language it only benefits the company to keep it that way. If they're going to give in on scope, they're going to want something else in return. It's reality.

Griever
01-21-2019, 05:30 AM
I agree! And I hope that they do, because the pilot group deserves it. All I'm saying is that they've (AAG) have won on the scope issue time and time and time again. Even the arbitrators punted on it which only further sets precedence that creates an uphill battle on the issue for the pilots. Because the contract literally has zero scope language it only benefits the company to keep it that way. If they're going to give in on scope, they're going to want something else in return. It's reality.

That's how B&B play. No, they want their cake and to eat it too.

First they'll approach QX pilots with another Commit to Compete plan to "give" QX E190-E2s. No doubt purchased or leased from OO.

Next they'll use it to twist ALK pilot's arms during negotiations, so you'll get your scope but they'll count on the QX E2 thing to panic the ALK pilot group and cave on virtually everything else.

Then, whatever additional costs are incurred by your contract improvements they'll offset with skywest flying.

If only they used that acumen to actually run the airline day-to-day.

ImperialxRat
01-21-2019, 11:13 AM
They don't want the E190-E2, they want the E175-E2, and Skywest does have orders for those that they currently cannot take delivery of unless Delta/United relax their scope on weight limit. The E175-E2 said it would be ready for delivery in 3 years.

Griever
01-21-2019, 12:11 PM
They don't want the E190-E2, they want the E175-E2, and Skywest does have orders for those that they currently cannot take delivery of unless Delta/United relax their scope on weight limit. The E175-E2 said it would be ready for delivery in 3 years.

Same result, only I added a few extra frame sections 😁

That's beyond the ALK negotiations horizon then, I wonder if they'll just stall negotiations until the threat is eminent.

flysnoopy76
01-21-2019, 01:42 PM
Same result, only I added a few extra frame sections 😁

That's beyond the ALK negotiations horizon then, I wonder if they'll just stall negotiations until the threat is eminent.

I’d be pretty surprised if there is a new contract to vote on in anything less than 5 years. Look at what happened at Frontier, currently no motivation exists for Alaska management to negotiate in good faith when the current contract lags the industry in almost every facet.

Packrat
01-21-2019, 03:36 PM
I’d be pretty surprised if there is a new contract to vote on in anything less than 5 years. Look at what happened at Frontier, currently no motivation exists for Alaska management to negotiate in good faith when the current contract lags the industry in almost every facet.

2 to 3 years past your amendable date is pretty much standard operating procedure for the Anglers.

AJ Crowley
01-22-2019, 04:29 AM
I agree! And I hope that they do, because the pilot group deserves it. All I'm saying is that they've (AAG) have won on the scope issue time and time and time again. Even the arbitrators punted on it which only further sets precedence that creates an uphill battle on the issue for the pilots. Because the contract literally has zero scope language it only benefits the company to keep it that way. If they're going to give in on scope, they're going to want something else in return. It's reality.

arbitrators were never going to give scope as they don't want to limit a company's business plan, but it does not set any kind of precedence for negotiating scope. AAG has always won on scope because this pilot group was WEAK. That has to change. There is zero reason we can achieve scope, and a quality contract. If we fail it's our fault and no one else.

rickair7777
01-22-2019, 06:46 AM
They don't want the E190-E2, they want the E175-E2, and Skywest does have orders for those that they currently cannot take delivery of unless Delta/United relax their scope on weight limit. The E175-E2 said it would be ready for delivery in 3 years.

Lots of people don't know that DL/UA scope also protects AS pilots.

DL/UA contracts with OO forbid OO from operating any jets for ANY other partner which exceed DL/UA size/weight limits. Don't recall all of the nitty-gritty but that's the gist of it. Possible work arounds exist, but OO has not shown any interest in alter-ego certs, ever, and they are just now extracting themselves from the decade-long XJT/ASA acquisition debacle.

That only applies to DCI/UAX regionals of course, so QX could presumably fly anything? But a wholly owned regional with no competitors (due to DL/UA scope) might not be very cheap in the long run.

AS better get some scope while they still have top cover from from DL/UA. It's not worth quite as much to AAG right now.

echelon
01-22-2019, 08:14 AM
AAG has always won on scope because this pilot group was WEAK.

Has there ever even been a fight over it? Have AS pilots ever even asked for it or have they always taken management's word that they didn't need it? Even the arbitrators cited the pilot group's lack of a history of pursuing it in their decision.

Singlecoil
01-22-2019, 08:54 PM
Has there ever even been a fight over it? Have AS pilots ever even asked for it or have they always taken management's word that they didn't need it? Even the arbitrators cited the pilot group's lack of a history of pursuing it in their decision.
Alaska pilots are in a Catch-22 on scope (you might have to google that reference). Arbitrators have said on two occasions that we should have it, but that it isn’t in their purview to award. At the same time, federal mediators have decided that they won’t release us to strike for that very same issue. So the company can say no, the mediators can say no, and the arbitrators throw up their hands and say no.
If we want to get somewhere on scope, we need to be unified and make it clear in mediation that scope is a must have item for our side. That being said, at some point in this pilot hiring environment, we also need to be able to say, “Go ahead and staff your alter-ego airline when you can’t even staff mainline.” In other words, don’t make concessions for something they can’t achieve anyway. ALK management is, as usual, ten years behind the times about the economic labor issues facing the company they are married to.

conquestdz
01-23-2019, 12:30 AM
https://www.reuters.com/article/us-usa-aviation-shortage-insight/u-s-airlines-tap-army-helicopter-pilots-to-ease-shortage-idUSKCN1PH0CO

The article is mostly about recruiting helicopter pilots for the regionals, but there is a very informative and sobering interactive chart in the middle of the article showing how we are doing compared to our peers. It looks like "Ala5ka" is actually more like "Ala7ka" and trending towards "Ala9ka".

ShyGuy
01-23-2019, 02:59 AM
https://www.reuters.com/article/us-usa-aviation-shortage-insight/u-s-airlines-tap-army-helicopter-pilots-to-ease-shortage-idUSKCN1PH0CO

The article is mostly about recruiting helicopter pilots for the regionals, but there is a very informative and sobering interactive chart in the middle of the article showing how we are doing compared to our peers. It looks like "Ala5ka" is actually more like "Ala7ka" and trending towards "Ala9ka".

That chart is very outdated.

rickair7777
01-23-2019, 06:32 AM
If we want to get somewhere on scope, we need to be unified and make it clear in mediation that scope is a must have item for our side. That being said, at some point in this pilot hiring environment, we also need to be able to say, “Go ahead and staff your alter-ego airline when you can’t even staff mainline.” In other words, don’t make concessions for something they can’t achieve anyway. ALK management is, as usual, ten years behind the times about the economic labor issues facing the company they are married to.

The silver lining... scope isn't worth quite as much to them right now because they are limited on what they can do with it due pilot shortage. If they put big planes at QX, QX being WO will very quickly want more than "$80 for 80's". OO can't fly them at all (UA/DL scope).

conquestdz
01-23-2019, 08:35 AM
That chart is very outdated.

Are you saying we are better off or worse off?

KnockKnock
01-23-2019, 10:14 AM
Are you saying we are better off or worse off?
Welp, seeing as the 4 airlines on the bottom of that chart don’t have any widebody aircraft and the description of the chart is, “breakdown of pay for widebody jet captains at the 10 largest U.S air carriers” makes this chart a bit inaccurate. Also, pertinent fact, a 1st yr CA at AS is currently paid $219/hr and goes to $225/hr in April, yet the chart shows a 30 yr AS CA earning around $160-$170. This adds to the inaccuracy of this chart. Not sure where they got their information.

Tubby
01-23-2019, 11:30 AM
They don't want the E190-E2, they want the E175-E2, and Skywest does have orders for those that they currently cannot take delivery of unless Delta/United relax their scope on weight limit. The E175-E2 said it would be ready for delivery in 3 years.

Embraer Removes 100-unit SkyWest Order from E2 Backlog
by Gregory Polek
- October 30, 2018, 12:23 PM
Sending another signal that hopes for a relaxation of U.S. airline pilot union scope clauses have dimmed, Embraer has removed from its backlog an order for 100 E175-E2s from Utah-based SkyWest, the manufacturer confirmed Tuesday. However, the terms of the order, placed in 2013 upon the program’s launch, have not changed, said Embraer CFO Nelson Salgado during the company’s third-quarter earnings call with investment analysts.

The removal of the 100 aircraft from the order backlog comes soon after the cancellation of an order for 24 E190s by JetBlue, which opted instead to replace its current fleet of E190s with Airbus A220s. The two moves together contributed to a reduction in Embraer’s backlog from $17.4 billion at the end of June to $13.6 billion at the end of September.

The uncertainty about the SkyWest order derives from restrictions written into the pilot contracts of the three major U.S. airlines that effectively limit the maximum takeoff weights of the airplanes flying for their regional affiliates to 86,000 pounds. Although both the E175-E2 and the Mitsubishi MRJ90 can meet the 76-seat capacity limitations in those scope clauses through configuration in a two-class cabin layout, neither airplane can meet the mtow limits, effectively disqualifying them from use by U.S. regional airlines.

Embraer, which claims an 85-percent share of the 76-seat market in the U.S., continues to advertise the current GE CF-34-powered E175 as a cost-effective alternative to the E2 in the U.S. For its part, Mitsubishi has said it believes the smaller of its two MRJ variants, the MRJ70, will fill the need for 76-seat lift in a single-class configuration. It does not expect that airplane to reach the market until 2022, however.

Mitsubishi, in fact, has placed more emphasis on improvements to the smaller variant as pilot unions appear unlikely to relax the weight limitations in the next round of bargaining. “We are operating under the assumption that fundamentally there will be limited change [to scope clauses],” conceded Mitsubishi MRJ chief development officer and head of program management Alex Bellamy in a recent interview with AIN.

ShyGuy
01-23-2019, 01:36 PM
Are you saying we are better off or worse off?


As stated above, these paycharts are inaccurate and not set up properly. It has 10 yr pay, 15, 20, 25, and 30 year pay. Nearly almost all legacy and major carriers have just a 12 year scale. The 12th yr guy and 30th yr guy are capped at the same rate. Anyway, I just glanced at 30th yr AS Capt and it says $171,795. I made more than that as FO.

Beta82
01-24-2019, 06:15 PM
Not sure what this pilot shortage talk is all about, it will never pertain to Alaska in it's current form.

1) There will always be 10 to 20 guys/girls every other month that will come here from a worse job.
2) There are almost no plans for growth in the short term, and probably not enough to ever make them have to worry about the pipeline of pilots.
3)The retirements aren't there vs. the legacies, so the demand will never be outrageous.

SkyWest still hires 100 a month with less pay, no flow agreement, and not near as good of bonuses as some of the other regionals. If a regional can do it offering less, so can Alaska.

I'm not trying to be defeatist, but our contract improvements aren't coming from a pilot shortage. I can guarantee you that. They are going to come from us standing shoulder to shoulder and saying no to whatever s&*t they stay they can only afford.

DangleDunlops
01-24-2019, 07:12 PM
Alaska doesn’t exist in a vacuum. The more desperate the other airlines get, the more vulnerable Alaska becomes. A large airline, by itself, could bring Alaska to its knees by hiring our pilots. The cumulative effect of hiring qualified pilots out of the pipeline forces Alaska to remain competitive, even if it further drops minimum hiring requirements.

ShyGuy
01-24-2019, 10:29 PM
Alaska doesn’t exist in a vacuum. The more desperate the other airlines get, the more vulnerable Alaska becomes. A large airline, by itself, could bring Alaska to its knees by hiring our pilots. The cumulative effect of hiring qualified pilots out of the pipeline forces Alaska to remain competitive, even if it further drops minimum hiring requirements.

I’ve heard this numerous times for much smaller carriers, like when Virgin was only about 600 pilots. “The legacies can shut down Virgin, all they have to do is hire all 600 pilots over 3 legacies in 6 months!” It. Never. Happens. Heard the same things about Spirit, Frontier, Allegiant, Sun Country, even jetBlue when they were smaller. It’s just pilot group think that’s not grounded in the reality of legacy airline hiring practices.

Klsytakesit
01-24-2019, 10:54 PM
Hopefully, maybe the new MEC will recognize that beating the “competetive hiring” drum at a mini regional west coast major like Alaska is DOA. We need to negotiate as though we have hired our last pilot, as though growth is over, as though minimum gurantee is what all lines will pay, that reserve is here to stay. Tell Bradben to shove the growth/ hiring NDA shell game where the sun dont shine.

flysnoopy76
01-25-2019, 03:40 AM
Hopefully, maybe the new MEC will recognize that beating the “competetive hiring” drum at a mini regional west coast major like Alaska is DOA. We need to negotiate as though we have hired our last pilot, as though growth is over, as though minimum gurantee is what all lines will pay, that reserve is here to stay. Tell Bradben to shove the growth/ hiring NDA shell game where the sun dont shine.

100% thumbs up
Great post

rickair7777
01-25-2019, 05:51 AM
I’ve heard this numerous times for much smaller carriers, like when Virgin was only about 600 pilots. “The legacies can shut down Virgin, all they have to do is hire all 600 pilots over 3 legacies in 6 months!” It. Never. Happens. Heard the same things about Spirit, Frontier, Allegiant, Sun Country, even jetBlue when they were smaller. It’s just pilot group think that’s not grounded in the reality of legacy airline hiring practices.

It would actually be illegal to blatantly, intentionally, target a competitor's employees en masse. The slots and gates (and maybe planes) would *normally* have more value than pilots, so an acquisition would normally be how it would go down.

But if the shortage gets bad enough, there's nothing to stop them from hiring any who bother to apply if they have reasonably competitive resumes... and by definition most AS pilots should have decent resumes (compared to CFI's or noob regional FO's).

KnockKnock
01-25-2019, 07:34 AM
I’ve heard this numerous times for much smaller carriers, like when Virgin was only about 600 pilots. “The legacies can shut down Virgin, all they have to do is hire all 600 pilots over 3 legacies in 6 months!” It. Never. Happens. Heard the same things about Spirit, Frontier, Allegiant, Sun Country, even jetBlue when they were smaller. It’s just pilot group think that’s not grounded in the reality of legacy airline hiring practices.
I’d add that every form of Alaska’s demise has been repeated over and over on these boards for years now. We’re getting bought, we’re not attracting pilots, the pilots are leaving en mass etc. etc. None of it happens. All talk by a handful of folks. Any real, major shift at this company will have to come from within, and guys have to stop daydreaming about outside help. Love it or hate it, the reality is, Alaska holds it own and will continue to operate. Regurgitating the meat of the dead horse beaten to death by the drumstick is nothing more than a coping mechanism. Every single thread ends up being the same conversation. Groundhog Day

majorpilot
01-25-2019, 07:49 AM
I’d add that every form of Alaska’s demise has been repeated over and over on these boards for years now. We’re getting bought, we’re not attracting pilots, the pilots are leaving en mass etc. etc. None of it happens. All talk by a handful of folks. Any real, major shift at this company will have to come from within, and guys have to stop daydreaming about outside help. Love it or hate it, the reality is, Alaska holds it own and will continue to operate. Regurgitating the meat of the dead horse beaten to death by the drumstick is nothing more than a coping mechanism. Every single thread ends up being the same conversation. Groundhog Day


It is both a relief and a source of concern that the same conversation seems to appear on EVERY thread. But this is an APC “feature.” I expect such lines are similarly represented on truck driver and brain surgeon forums.

That aside, for all of non-legacy pilots hoping to move to bigger iron living on the left coast, is there some compelling reason to cross AAG off of our list?

KnockKnock
01-25-2019, 08:24 AM
It is both a relief and a source of concern that the same conversation seems to appear on EVERY thread. But this is an APC “feature.” I expect such lines are similarly represented on truck driver and brain surgeon forums.

That aside, for all of non-legacy pilots hoping to move to bigger iron living on the left coast, is there some compelling reason to cross AAG off of our list?
Folks may find reasons not to come to Alaska but there’s nothing said on these forums driving those decisions. You’re right that the same arguments take place the world over. Every airline on this website has pages full of contempt. I have guys knocking my door down asking for help to get on with AS for the very reasons stated earlier. There will always be worse places to work and each individual will decide their definition of “worse”. So while, one person may find AS an unsuitable place to work, there are 10 more behind him/her champing at the bit. I’m not here to rob anyone of their coping mechanisms, however, instead of just repeatedly chanting about what’s broken maybe offer up some fixes too. Openers start soon.

majorpilot
01-25-2019, 09:07 AM
Folks may find reasons not to come to Alaska but there’s nothing said on these forums driving those decisions. You’re right that the same arguments take place the world over. Every airline on this website has pages full of contempt. I have guys knocking my door down asking for help to get on with AS for the very reasons stated earlier. There will always be worse places to work and each individual will decide their definition of “worse”. So while, one person may find AS an unsuitable place to work, there are 10 more behind him/her champing at the bit. I’m not here to rob anyone of their coping mechanisms, however, instead of just repeatedly chanting about what’s broken maybe offer up some fixes too. Openers start soon.


Thanks for the helpful and practical take.

For my part, I’ve been impressed with the AS people I’ve met, and I could drive to work there—if nothing else, that time not spent commuting gives me time to work on other things if this piloting stuff doesn’t work out. [emoji57]

Every airline is subject to market forces, strategic issues, and unforced errors, and I’ve never heard anyone tout their contract as perfect. I suspect for each of us, it’s a matter of prioritizing “what matters to me,” and going for it. Hopefully we each find our respective “happy place.”

KnockKnock
01-25-2019, 10:28 AM
Thanks for the helpful and practical take.

For my part, I’ve been impressed with the AS people I’ve met, and I could drive to work there—if nothing else, that time not spent commuting gives me time to work on other things if this piloting stuff doesn’t work out. [emoji57]

Every airline is subject to market forces, strategic issues, and unforced errors, and I’ve never heard anyone tout their contract as perfect. I suspect for each of us, it’s a matter of prioritizing “what matters to me,” and going for it. Hopefully we each find our respective “happy place.”
My best advice to you is apply to every airline you can envision yourself working. Take the first offer given, decide if that airline offers you the life you are comfortable living. If not, keep your options open and if offered a better deal, (in your eyes), take it. I know easier said than done but what else can one really do? Don’t be distracted by the overly negative stuff regarding any airline because what may not work for someone else, may suit you just fine. Like you said, prioritize.

VirginEskimo
01-25-2019, 08:13 PM
I’d add that every form of Alaska’s demise has been repeated over and over on these boards for years now. We’re getting bought, we’re not attracting pilots, the pilots are leaving en mass etc. etc. None of it happens. All talk by a handful of folks. Any real, major shift at this company will have to come from within, and guys have to stop daydreaming about outside help. Love it or hate it, the reality is, Alaska holds it own and will continue to operate. Regurgitating the meat of the dead horse beaten to death by the drumstick is nothing more than a coping mechanism. Every single thread ends up being the same conversation. Groundhog Day

We now have got a large contingent of recently acquired pilots who can attest that actually the demise of established companies does happen. Mine had been around for 61 years and the old hands scoffed at my concerns in the run-up to our liquidation. I’m not a doom-and-gloomer or someone hoping desperately to get bought but hearing it blithely stated that “nothing’s going to happen to this place!” brings back memories of previous assurances that proved to be quite erroneous.

KnockKnock
01-25-2019, 10:24 PM
We now have got a large contingent of recently acquired pilots who can attest that actually the demise of established companies does happen. Mine had been around for 61 years and the old hands scoffed at my concerns in the run-up to our liquidation. I’m not a doom-and-gloomer or someone hoping desperately to get bought but hearing it blithely stated that “nothing’s going to happen to this place!” brings back memories of previous assurances that proved to be quite erroneous.
Yeah, sure places go out of business. However, AS is not showing any signs of going out of business. The place is still making money. Just because people are unhappy with things, which they have the right to be, doesn’t equate to liquidation. Surly, with all your previous experience at failed companies, you can tell the difference between a faultering company and people venting their frustrations.

Fred Flintstone
01-26-2019, 06:22 AM
Surely you can call me surly.

VirginEskimo
01-26-2019, 07:46 AM
It’s not my “fault” it’s faltering! (As long as we’re doing spell-check)😎

As I said, I’m not a “Doom and Gloomer” I agree that we are not facing any sort of imminent collapse or even strategic acquisition but things can sneak up on you quick in this industry. The competitive landscape has changed considerably in the last 10 years. Our competitors are extremely large and powerful. I wouldn’t be too sure either way. In my experience, bold, certain, emphatic pronouncements have never really borne out in this industry. I’ll just stay flexible and see what happens.

KnockKnock
01-26-2019, 09:54 AM
It’s not my “fault” it’s faltering! (As long as we’re doing spell-check)😎

As I said, I’m not a “Doom and Gloomer” I agree that we are not facing any sort of imminent collapse or even strategic acquisition but things can sneak up on you quick in this industry. The competitive landscape has changed considerably in the last 10 years. Our competitors are extremely large and powerful. I wouldn’t be too sure either way. In my experience, bold, certain, emphatic pronouncements have never really borne out in this industry. I’ll just stay flexible and see what happens.
Well the important thing hear is you caught my spelling errors. I rest easy at knight nowing guys like you are out their to pick me up when I faulter with the English language. On a side note, I'm not stomping my foot down declaring nothing will happen to AS. I'm saying that the repetitive howling about AS' immediate downfall are just people venting and not a true indicator of the health of the company. It's been repeated for decades. AS was gonna be bought by AA, DL, SW. AS was gonna lose all it's pilots. AS wasn't gonna attract any new pilots. AS was gonna be decapitated by SW. And the list goes on. I'm not fanning over here, I just live in a non hysterical reality. Some of these guys use up their allotment of exclamation points when describing AS. Openers start soon, I suggest we all start telling our NC what fixes we would like to see instead of just crying foul.

All Bizniz
01-26-2019, 02:58 PM
I'm saying that the repetitive howling about AS' immediate downfall are just people venting and not a true indicator of the health of the company. It's been repeated for decades. AS was gonna be bought by AA, DL, SW. AS was gonna lose all it's pilots. AS was gonna be decapitated by SW.
Even though Alaska is a very healthy company financially, there are countless examples of very healthy companies being bought by other companies as part of a strategic play as I'm sure you know.

AS had been a big fish in a small pond forever, but I think there has been a paradym shift where now the biggest whales in the industry are very much interested in either totally dominating this NW Pacific/California pond or to just drop the mike and eat us whole.

It just a matter of timing, them being content to wait until the right opportunity presents itself.

KnockKnock
01-26-2019, 04:03 PM
Even though Alaska is a very healthy company financially, there are countless examples of very healthy companies being bought by other companies as part of a strategic play as I'm sure you know.

AS had been a big fish in a small pond forever, but I think there has been a paradym shift where now the biggest whales in the industry are very much interested in either totally dominating this NW Pacific/California pond or to just drop the mike and eat us whole.

It just a matter of timing, them being content to wait until the right opportunity presents itself.
Well, we have two choices. We can sit around pondering the future of AS’ market share in the NW and West Coast. Creating a new boogeyman every few months and whipping up neat battle cries full of self loathing. OR.....we can try to fix what ails us by making sure our reps hear our concerns, we are well represented during negotiations, and stick to our guns come voting time. I choose the latter. Yes, change is inevitable. If AS gets gobbled up in the future, nothing you or I say will have an impact on that. Do you really want to spend your career stressing over any number of potential outcomes? Not me, I don’t get paid for that and I sure as he11 won’t accept less pay than DL, UA, AA or SW to worry about that.

All Bizniz
01-27-2019, 02:46 AM
Well, we have two choices. We can sit around pondering the future of AS’ market share in the NW and West Coast. Creating a new boogeyman every few months and whipping up neat battle cries full of self loathing. OR.....we can try to fix what ails us by making sure our reps hear our concerns, we are well represented during negotiations, and stick to our guns come voting time. I choose the latter. Yes, change is inevitable. If AS gets gobbled up in the future, nothing you or I say will have an impact on that. Do you really want to spend your career stressing over any number of potential outcomes? Not me, I don’t get paid for that and I sure as he11 won’t accept less pay than DL, UA, AA or SW to worry about that.
We can do both.

I've been ready to stand shoulder to shoulder in pursuit of what we deserve.

However, while many pilots have already decided whether they are going to stick it out or jump ship, there are those who are going back and forth about it, so looking at possible outcomes or scenarios might help one's ultimate decision...

Personally, I'm very thankful that I've found myself in a position where I dont have to stress too much about the situation, so I only "ponder" this stuff when I jump on here occasionally to catch up on the conversation.

My cellar is full and my powder is dry....

Winter is coming! #GOT #Winterfell :)

OTZeagle1
01-27-2019, 07:05 AM
This is embarrassing... you are idiots. No wonder you are all unhappy and broke. You must be financially clueless. I remember many of the same morons a year ago talking about Alaska losing a “million a day”... right, we made 2 million a day in 2018. Really close though. This is not VX, we are not going to quickly go out of business. American, United, Hawaiian, Fontier, JetBlue would all go out of business years, in some cases a decade before Alaska. So do whatever you want, watch really really close... so it doesn’t “sneak up on you”, but please grow up or move on. How do you expect a descent contract when all you do is promote ignorance and garbage.

KnockKnock
01-27-2019, 08:25 AM
We can do both.

I've been ready to stand shoulder to shoulder in pursuit of what we deserve.

However, while many pilots have already decided whether they are going to stick it out or jump ship, there are those who are going back and forth about it, so looking at possible outcomes or scenarios might help one's ultimate decision...

Personally, I'm very thankful that I've found myself in a position where I dont have to stress too much about the situation, so I only "ponder" this stuff when I jump on here occasionally to catch up on the conversation.

My cellar is full and my powder is dry....

Winter is coming! #GOT #Winterfell :)
I'd say to those pilots on the fence, if you're thinking of going, go. It's a long process and if you hesitate, you're just costing yourself seniority. Not to mention the mental stress you're causing yourself. Alaska either works for you or it doesn't. Those that have left haven't been the loud vocal type. They just put in the work and leave. Good on em. I guess I'm lucky too. Alaska works for me so I don't have to worry about it. I think the company and the pilot group will be just fine.

Fred Flintstone
01-27-2019, 10:36 AM
I'd say to those pilots on the fence, if you're thinking of going, go. It's a long process and if you hesitate, you're just costing yourself seniority. Not to mention the mental stress you're causing yourself. Alaska either works for you or it doesn't. Those that have left haven't been the loud vocal type. They just put in the work and leave. Good on em. I guess I'm lucky too. Alaska works for me so I don't have to worry about it. I think the company and the pilot group will be just fine.


Thanks for sharing!

All Bizniz
01-27-2019, 10:41 AM
I'd say to those pilots on the fence, if you're thinking of going, go. It's a long process and if you hesitate, you're just costing yourself seniority. Not to mention the mental stress you're causing yourself. Alaska either works for you or it doesn't. Those that have left haven't been the loud vocal type. They just put in the work and leave. Good on em. I guess I'm lucky too. Alaska works for me so I don't have to worry about it. I think the company and the pilot group will be just fine.
Good for you that AS works for you but sadly it doesn't for me at all, not with this current contract. But I'm too far up the mountain to consider turning around, so win, lose or draw, I'll be here. I am angling (no pun intended) for the win though. What worked and is working for me is a decent side hustle that allows me to not take this place too seriously. I mean, I come to work, I'm safe and professional but I find it impossible to feel like I'm part of a great organization. (I guess in the end, that's all they care about, that we show up, and fly the d**n airplanes).

And what is it with this machine that constantly churns out the 'secret sauce' flavored Kool-Aid? lol

As for guys on the fence, I wouldn't be surprised that for more than a few, it's only because they haven't gotten the call from the true legacies why they even have time to go back n forth in their minds...

echelon
01-27-2019, 11:26 AM
What, taking two days of my life away from me wasn't enough so now they're sending a colorful propaganda pamphlet to my house with the bullet points from said two days in it? Desperate much? :rolleyes: Let's do this!TM

majorpilot
01-27-2019, 12:22 PM
I'd say to those pilots on the fence, if you're thinking of going, go. It's a long process and if you hesitate, you're just costing yourself seniority. Not to mention the mental stress you're causing yourself. <INSERT YOUR COMPANY HERE> either works for you or it doesn't.


THIS!!!

Life is too short to be miserable...

Arctichicken
01-27-2019, 05:32 PM
Been away for while but I see nothing has changed.
FP/V1: same old shat, different year! Management: "Good job guys, keep up the good work, oh and btw, we need to keep costs low so we'll never pay you top dollar. And, if you guys don't pull harder for less, we'll need to shed some weight. Questions? Have a great day. xoxo!"

If this place works for you, then great--stay. If not, I'd run as fast as you can away from this dysfunctional self proclaimed "family" before the next downturn. Remember, the company has more $$$, resources, and brains than what ALPA national is capable of/willing to put out for this insignificant pilot group.

WhenPigsFLy
01-27-2019, 07:18 PM
So three AK guys here on yr 2 at UPS made, 220k, 227k and 290k. Just w2 no bfund. All fo widebody pay. One lives in domicle(290k). Commuters from west coast made less.

Ispeakjive
01-28-2019, 09:42 AM
This is embarrassing... you are idiots. No wonder you are all unhappy and broke. You must be financially clueless. I remember many of the same morons a year ago talking about Alaska losing a “million a day”... right, we made 2 million a day in 2018. Really close though. This is not VX, we are not going to quickly go out of business. American, United, Hawaiian, Fontier, JetBlue would all go out of business years, in some cases a decade before Alaska. So do whatever you want, watch really really close... so it doesn’t “sneak up on you”, but please grow up or move on. How do you expect a descent contract when all you do is promote ignorance and garbage.

Tell me again about your millions. It makes me all tingly inside.

symbian simian
01-28-2019, 10:18 PM
It would actually be illegal to blatantly, intentionally, target a competitor's employees en masse. The slots and gates (and maybe planes) would *normally* have more value than pilots, so an acquisition would normally be how it would go down.

But if the shortage gets bad enough, there's nothing to stop them from hiring any who bother to apply if they have reasonably competitive resumes... and by definition most AS pilots should have decent resumes (compared to CFI's or noob regional FO's).

So IANAL, AIATLTG (and I am too lazy to google), but what statue would prevent targeting a competitor's blue collar workers?

rickair7777
01-29-2019, 08:05 AM
So IANAL, AIATLTG (and I am too lazy to google), but what statue would prevent targeting a competitor's blue collar workers?

Generally considered predatory/unfair business practice.

You can hire anybody if you need them, and consider all applicants equally. But if you have 10,000 apps on file, hire 500 pilots, all of them from a specific smaller competitor even though many other apps are equal or superior to the 500 hired, that competitor might have a case. Worse if your recruiting obviously targets that specific company when there are many other good applicants at many other companies. Worse also if you offer unusual bonuses or the like.

It would be possible to damage a competitor legally by hiring many of their employees as long as the process was not specifically targeted at that employer. OK to damage the competitor as a second order effect, but the primary purpose has to be legit hiring, and the process has to be even for all applicants. Actually you could legally target a specific competitor IF you need their employees and IF they are the only source of those employees. That last would never apply to pilots, but might apply to personal in skilled niche technical fields (such as AI research). Non-disclosure and non-compete agreements generally mitigate that sort of behavior.

Not sure about specific laws, but I know there have been lawsuits.

"Systematic inducement of multiple employees of a single company to leave their present employment is unlawful when the purpose is to destroy a competitor or an integral segment of its business, rather than obtain the services of skilled employees. The very fact that a company targets its recruitment efforts at a single competitor suggests an improper motive, since one company rarely has a monopoly on skilled workers. Evidence that the loss of key personnel will harm the company, and that its rival desired to drive them out of business is important proof in these cases."

symbian simian
01-29-2019, 09:17 AM
Generally considered predatory/unfair business practice.
"…in these cases."

Thanks for the reply.

dclevenger100
01-30-2019, 04:31 PM
Following

Sent from my SM-G892A using Tapatalk

WhenPigsFLy
01-30-2019, 09:23 PM
The next major recession we will see one pilot group bend on 110 seat RJs and then the cats out of the bag. In Ak airlines case lttle to prevent this. Its means a large revenue boost and expansion. Also one of the ULCCs will get 110 seaters at rates a little better the top commuter with mainline rules.

rickair7777
01-31-2019, 05:55 AM
The next major recession we will see one pilot group bend on 110 seat RJs and then the cats out of the bag. In Ak airlines case lttle to prevent this. Its means a large revenue boost and expansion.

It's hard to put toothpaste back in the tube... but that works both ways, AA and DL have 100+ seaters on property, precedent set, I doubt any union is going to cave on just handing those over to the regionals, that would just be MORE furloughs.


Also one of the ULCCs will get 110 seaters at rates a little better the top commuter with mainline rules.

Maybe. But at least you have a mainline number.

Fred Flintstone
01-31-2019, 06:12 AM
Toothpaste? It's Preparation H.

ImperialxRat
01-31-2019, 08:43 AM
The next major recession we will see one pilot group bend on 110 seat RJs and then the cats out of the bag.


I disagree.

tomgoodman
01-31-2019, 08:57 AM
The next major recession we will see one pilot group bend on 110 seat RJs and then the cats out of the bag.

Crewmembers should leave their cats at home. Bag confinement leads to meowing, which annoys the passengers. :mad:

Flaps1check
01-31-2019, 09:34 AM
The next major recession we will see one pilot group bend on 110 seat RJs and then the cats out of the bag. In Ak airlines case lttle to prevent this. Its means a large revenue boost and expansion. Also one of the ULCCs will get 110 seaters at rates a little better the top commuter with mainline rules.

Does it really matter how many seats are on RJ’s? I say this because its my belief that there will be no Regional airlines in the US in 10 years. We will be flying these aircraft or the flight will just be done with mainline aircraft. The top 5 airlines by size have approximately a combined 54,769 pilots, 23,285 of who are set to retire at age 65 during that 10 year period. According to numbers found here at airline pilot central there are approximately 20,472 current regional pilots. Those numbers are not sustainable for the majors and definitely not for the regionals. These numbers don’t take into account the other majors retirements, military pilots, or the pilots flying corporate. I want scope and will vote no on any contract that does not have industry standard scope. However it is my overall belief that there will be no more regionals in 10 years.

ShyGuy
01-31-2019, 11:32 AM
Crewmembers should leave their cats at home. Bag confinement leads to meowing, which annoys the passengers. :mad:

You have to bring a cat with you, how else you going to do a CAT I approach?


https://i.redd.it/fbjylpn5k5a01.jpg

TransWorld
01-31-2019, 11:51 AM
Reminds me of the family bringing their lifeless dog to their vet.

The vet said he wanted to run a CAT scan before declaring the dog is deceased. After thinking, the family agreed.

The vet opens the door to the exam room. A cat walks in, circles the dog three times. Then, walks out the door. No response from the dog. The itemized bill was for disposal of the dog’s body, $50 and CAT scan $200.:D

Beta82
01-31-2019, 12:23 PM
Does it really matter how many seats are on RJ’s? I say this because its my belief that there will be no Regional airlines in the US in 10 years. We will be flying these aircraft or the flight will just be done with mainline aircraft. The top 5 airlines by size have approximately a combined 54,769 pilots, 23,285 of who are set to retire at age 65 during that 10 year period. According to numbers found here at airline pilot central there are approximately 20,472 current regional pilots. Those numbers are not sustainable for the majors and definitely not for the regionals. These numbers don’t take into account the other majors retirements, military pilots, or the pilots flying corporate. I want scope and will vote no on any contract that does not have industry standard scope. However it is my overall belief that there will be no more regionals in 10 years.

If I had a nickel every time I heard this...The regionals will be alive and well in 10 years. You talk as if there are going to no more pilots, ever. The majors have a huge stake in keeping the regionals going and aren't going to let them go away. Ab initio anyone? It's possible for there to be some consolidation of regional airlines in the future and they possibly could become smaller. Going away? Not in anyone career on this board.

echelon
01-31-2019, 01:36 PM
If I had a nickel every time I heard this...The regionals will be alive and well in 10 years. You talk as if there are going to no more pilots, ever. The majors have a huge stake in keeping the regionals going and aren't going to let them go away. Ab initio anyone? It's possible for there to be some consolidation of regional airlines in the future and they possibly could become smaller. Going away? Not in anyone career on this board.

Seriously man, I've been hearing that since day one at my first regional airline. Any day now...

Varsity
01-31-2019, 03:03 PM
Does it really matter how many seats are on RJ’s? I say this because its my belief that there will be no Regional airlines in the US in 10 years. We will be flying these aircraft or the flight will just be done with mainline aircraft. The top 5 airlines by size have approximately a combined 54,769 pilots, 23,285 of who are set to retire at age 65 during that 10 year period. According to numbers found here at airline pilot central there are approximately 20,472 current regional pilots. Those numbers are not sustainable for the majors and definitely not for the regionals. These numbers don’t take into account the other majors retirements, military pilots, or the pilots flying corporate. I want scope and will vote no on any contract that does not have industry standard scope. However it is my overall belief that there will be no more regionals in 10 years.


More than 1000 CFI's a year hit the magic 1500 hrs. 1000 pilots a year coming out of the military, another 500 coming out of corporate/135.. another 500 coming from overseas or out of the woodwork (non flying jobs).

The regionals will always exist.

TransWorld
01-31-2019, 04:37 PM
More than 1000 CFI's a year hit the magic 1500 hrs. 1000 pilots a year coming out of the military, another 500 coming out of corporate/135.. another 500 coming from overseas or out of the woodwork (non flying jobs).

The regionals will always exist.

I’ll play your game.

1,000 CFI + 1,000 exMil + 500 Corp/135 + 500 Overseas/Out of the Woodwork = 3,000 total supply of pilots each year.

In 2018, the total hiring by the major airlines, LCCs, and major cargo was 4,606.

In 2013, just five years ago, the total hiring was only 1,084.

http://fapa.aero/hiringhistory.asp

Boeing has forecast the US needs averaging 5,000 to 6,000 pilots per year over the next 20 years.

Hmmmm....

Flaps1check
01-31-2019, 10:50 PM
I’ll play your game.

1,000 CFI + 1,000 exMil + 500 Corp/135 + 500 Overseas/Out of the Woodwork = 3,000 total supply of pilots each year.

In 2018, the total hiring by the major airlines, LCCs, and major cargo was 4,606.

In 2013, just five years ago, the total hiring was only 1,084.

FAPA.aero | Pilot Hiring History - All Time (http://fapa.aero/hiringhistory.asp)

Boeing has forecast the US needs averaging 5,000 to 6,000 pilots per year over the next 20 years.

Hmmmm....

I was trying to bring stats to the argument as you have. I guess we are in the "fake news" category. Never would have thought I would be in that category. it is what it is, time will tell.

majorpilot
02-01-2019, 05:34 AM
I was trying to bring stats to the argument as you have. I guess we are in the "fake news" category. Never would have thought I would be in that category. it is what it is, time will tell.



So, the facts/numbers actually do NOT support your position and the cry is “fake news”? Really? To quote the main champion of that pathetic technique ... “Sad...”

Flaps1check
02-01-2019, 07:05 AM
So, the facts/numbers actually do NOT support your position and the cry is “fake news”? Really? To quote the main champion of that pathetic technique ... “Sad...”

Okay with Boeing forecasting a need of 5,000-6,000 pilots a year over the next 20 years. Where do you suppose they are going to come from?

max gross
02-01-2019, 07:11 AM
The majors can fix the regional pilot shortage in two years if they wanted to. All it takes is money. How many kids would come out of the woodwork if they were offered free school/training/money to build time? Is 200k a lot of money for the majors to invest for a pilot? I don't think so.

The only reason they haven't is because they haven't had to yet. I'm guessing they'll wait until they can get the 1500 hr rule repealed or lowered. It will only get lowered if the public starts to lose service due to the pilot shortage.

majorpilot
02-01-2019, 07:28 AM
Okay with Boeing forecasting a need of 5,000-6,000 pilots a year over the next 20 years. Where do you suppose they are going to come from?



My point exactly. And some think that estimate is too low, there are others calling for greater demand. The stated “flow” from CFIs/military/“other” not near enough. Facts show demand will far outstrip what we are doing now.

I don’t know what the future will bring, but it will mean change. Big demographic trends change paradigms and business models. Better to plan accordingly. People who say “it’s been this way for X, it’ll always be this way” are whistling past the graveyard.

majorpilot
02-01-2019, 07:35 AM
Okay with Boeing forecasting a need of 5,000-6,000 pilots a year over the next 20 years. Where do you suppose they are going to come from?



My post was addressing the proposition that 2,000 pilots coming up assures “the regionals will always exist.” Um, no...that’s just math.

Certainly it is true any “shortage” is a function of economics—make it a better value proposition and more people will take it on as a career. But if it becomes too expensive, someone will try to automate it...which is also happening.

The only certainty is there is NO other “always” ... besides change. And maybe that someone on APC will always have an opposing viewpoint. [emoji12]

Mea25000
02-01-2019, 10:26 AM
303, 737/320 aircraft by the end of 2024. NG/Max only fleet decision

3,650 seniority by the end of 2024

900 total new hires 2019- end of 2024

320 reduction bid moved from spring 2019 to Summer 2019, most likely June, effective November 1st. (20-30 positions)

av8or
02-01-2019, 03:08 PM
303, 737/320 aircraft by the end of 2024. NG/Max only fleet decision

3,650 seniority by the end of 2024

900 total new hires 2019- end of 2024

320 reduction bid moved from spring 2019 to Summer 2019, most likely June, effective November 1st. (20-30 positions)

Just doing the math... don’t we have about 294 aircraft now? So did you mean a total fleet growth of 9 aircraft over 5 years at 5 crews per additional aircraft?

I have no idea what our staffing model is, just making sure I understand your numbers.

KnockKnock
02-01-2019, 04:36 PM
Just doing the math... don’t we have about 294 aircraft now? So did you mean a total fleet growth of 9 aircraft over 5 years at 5 crews per additional aircraft?

I have no idea what our staffing model is, just making sure I understand your numbers.
I believe that 295# you’re referring to is an AAG a/c total including QX 175’s and Q 400’s. I think I saw we have something like 170 Boeing’s and 60-65 Airbus. So maybe a growth of 60+ airplanes? We have 3000 pilots now so 300 for attrition and 600 to staff the 60ish new planes. I’m thinking 10-12 pilots per plane? Just rough numbers in my head.

Klsytakesit
02-01-2019, 08:47 PM
303, 737/320 aircraft by the end of 2024. NG/Max only fleet decision

3,650 seniority by the end of 2024

900 total new hires 2019- end of 2024

320 reduction bid moved from spring 2019 to Summer 2019, most likely June, effective November 1st. (20-30 positions)

You probably bought into the Finan/Ayers 2010 plan.

TransWorld
02-02-2019, 04:51 AM
I believe that 295# you’re referring to is an AAG a/c total including QX 175’s and Q 400’s. I think I saw we have something like 170 Boeing’s and 60-65 Airbus. So maybe a growth of 60+ airplanes? We have 3000 pilots now so 300 for attrition and 600 to staff the 60ish new planes. I’m thinking 10-12 pilots per plane? Just rough numbers in my head.

Here is what APC shows. Total 294, not counting Horizon:

737-700: 3
737-900ER: 64
A319: 10
A320: 53
A321: 8
B737-700: 11
B737-800: 61
B737-900: 84

ForeverJunior
02-02-2019, 06:05 AM
Here is what APC shows. Total 294, not counting Horizon:

737-700: 3
737-900ER: 64
A319: 10
A320: 53
A321: 8
B737-700: 11
B737-800: 61
B737-900: 84

Those numbers are not accurate. We definitely do not have 84 straight -900s. The actual number is 12.

Last I checked, we have 225 mainline airplanes.

Mea25000
02-02-2019, 06:37 AM
We have 235 now

303 is the high by the end of 2024 and
273 is the low

av8or
02-02-2019, 07:36 AM
We have 235 now

303 is the high by the end of 2024 and
273 is the low

Preciate the clarification.
That’s either a lot of route expansion, frequency, or a little of both. They’ve been pretty tight lipped about either on the quarterly earnings calls.

TransWorld
02-02-2019, 07:44 AM
Those numbers are not accurate. We definitely do not have 84 straight -900s. The actual number is 12.

Last I checked, we have 225 mainline airplanes.

Airfleets.net lists, by tail number, 233 mainline aircraft:

A319 = 10
A320 = 53
A321 = 8
B737-700 = 14
B737-800 = 61
B737-900 = 12
B737-900ER = 75

https://www.airfleets.net/flottecie/Alaska%20Airlines.htm

MODERATORS - please update Fleet on APC.

KnockKnock
02-02-2019, 07:45 AM
We have 235 now

303 is the high by the end of 2024 and
273 is the low
I’ve been hearing about some “big” announcement coming this spring. Is it this A/C order? Fingers crossed it’s this and not some large RJ order...

Mea25000
02-02-2019, 08:03 AM
Airfleets.net lists, by tail number, 233 mainline aircraft:

A319 = 10
A320 = 53
A321 = 8
B737-700 = 14
B737-800 = 61
B737-900 = 12
B737-900ER = 75

https://www.airfleets.net/flottecie/Alaska%20Airlines.htm

MODERATORS - please update Fleet on APC.

We took
N297AK in January

We take
N298AK in a couple of days

So yes 235 is a good number 😉

TransWorld
02-02-2019, 08:20 AM
Sounds good.

Ala5ka
02-02-2019, 09:15 AM
Who cares. These clowns lie continuously. Alaska is a terrible place to be a pilot, anyone looking here should not be fooled by this Trojan horse of a plan- if it’s even factual.

KnockKnock
02-02-2019, 09:35 AM
Who cares. These clowns lie continuously. Alaska is a terrible place to be a pilot, anyone looking here should not be fooled by this Trojan horse of a plan- if it’s even factual.
Yeah! Let’s all hate ourselves and hope for the worst!! That’ll show ‘em. If I were you, I wouldn’t spend one more day at this place. You’d blend right in with the guys at JB, NK, F9, 5Y, OY, SY, K4 etc. all saying their airline is the worst....he11 every airline on these boards has someone hating themselves. Good thing is, all those places are hiring. Best of luck to you in your future endeavors.

ZINTKAZ
02-02-2019, 09:54 AM
So three AK guys here on yr 2 at UPS made, 220k, 227k and 290k. Just w2 no bfund. All fo widebody pay. One lives in domicle(290k). Commuters from west coast made less.

Here is a place you can go. The green grass of KY! Bet they made all that sitting on reserve and picking up premium unicorn turn trips all while having all the time off they want at second year pay to boot! Plus the romantic symbiotic relationship between the pilot and management groups creates a utopian mindset that spans ones career. Just ask any UPS pilot. Again smell that fresh green grass! Like the previous post said.....lots of places hiring.

Mea25000
02-02-2019, 10:28 AM
It’s funny, I think these are very realistic numbers, sobering maybe if you are new. These are the best numbers out right now to judge career progression on, so if I were new, or just a pilot on the list, I would find them germane.

Hired right now 2950
In five years you would move up +_ 300 numbers to roughly 2650
Best case you are 2650 out of 3650(73%)
Worst case 2650 out of 3300(80%)

60% is a good swag usually for your first possible upgrade. That makes:

2190 to 1980 the upgrade line:
August ‘16 to May ‘17 hire date to hold CA by the end of 2024 to early 2025.

I would call these realistic, cut green grass in your front yard kind of numbers. I figured people would want to know them.

av8or
02-02-2019, 11:10 AM
It’s funny, I think these are very realistic numbers, sobering maybe if you are new. These are the best numbers out right now to judge career progression on, so if I were new, or just a pilot on the list, I would find them germane.

Hired right now 2950
In five years you would move up +_ 300 numbers to roughly 2650
Best case you are 2650 out of 3650(73%)
Worst case 2650 out of 3300(80%)

60% is a good swag usually for your first possible upgrade. That makes:

2190 to 1980 the upgrade line:
August ‘16 to May ‘17 hire date to hold CA by the end of 2024 to early 2025.

I would call these realistic, cut green grass in your front yard kind of numbers. I figured people would want to know them.

Preciate the break down on the % line Mea. And, if I read it right, none of that takes into account attrition between now and 24-25.

I can understand why people get sideways with naysayers and koolaide drinkers alike, but I’ll never understand why they get sideways with someone who just has some actual intel, not gospel truth, but at least snapshot level intel, trying to help guys make decisions for THEIR future.

Mea25000
02-02-2019, 12:12 PM
Preciate the break down on the % line Mea. And, if I read it right, none of that takes into account attrition between now and 24-25.

I can understand why people get sideways with naysayers and koolaide drinkers alike, but I’ll never understand why they get sideways with someone who just has some actual intel, not gospel truth, but at least snapshot level intel, trying to help guys make decisions for THEIR future.


Uhm... The retirements are built in to those numbers. The back end attrition is rarely anywhere near the upgrade line, usually falling off the very bottom realistically affecting no one. Early on there may be a slight increase of east cost FO departures closer to that line but this will be a very small number.
Alaska upgrade time for anyone hired 2016 to current should be 7 - 11.5 years. I know that isn’t sexy. Those are just the facts.

AtlCSIP
02-02-2019, 12:42 PM
Uhm... The retirements are built in to those numbers. The back end attrition is rarely anywhere near the upgrade line, usually falling off the very bottom realistically affecting no one. Early on there may be a slight increase of east cost FO departures closer to that line but this will be a very small number.
Alaska upgrade time for anyone hired 2016 to current should be 7 - 11.5 years. I know that isn’t sexy. Those are just the facts.

I think he was referring to attrition other than retirements. As you said, however, that number is probably relatively small. There will be some minor exodus due to JFK closing, plus some young guys wanting different kinds of flying opportunities, as well as a few medical early outs, but these will likely be relatively small numbers.

WutFace
02-02-2019, 12:49 PM
I think he was referring to attrition other than retirements. As you said, however, that number is probably relatively small. There will be some minor exodus due to JFK closing, plus some young guys wanting different kinds of flying opportunities, as well as a few medical early outs, but these will likely be relatively small numbers.

This is what hope looks like at Alaska Airlines. Counting on pilots senior to you to "medical out."

Get me out of here.

Outdoors
02-02-2019, 01:05 PM
Uhm... The retirements are built in to those numbers. The back end attrition is rarely anywhere near the upgrade line, usually falling off the very bottom realistically affecting no one. Early on there may be a slight increase of east cost FO departures closer to that line but this will be a very small number.
Alaska upgrade time for anyone hired 2016 to current should be 7 - 11.5 years. I know that isn’t sexy. Those are just the facts.

But what about the looming Jet Blue merger?

Mea25000
02-02-2019, 03:14 PM
Guys, I say this with complete confidence, we are not merging with anyone.

lowflying
02-02-2019, 03:50 PM
I think he was referring to attrition other than retirements. As you said, however, that number is probably relatively small. There will be some minor exodus due to JFK closing, plus some young guys wanting different kinds of flying opportunities, as well as a few medical early outs, but these will likely be relatively small numbers.

If by young you mean under 50 then I think you're spot on...

OTZeagle1
02-02-2019, 04:45 PM
If by young you mean under 50 then I think you're spot on...

I love angry texting... excluding retirements, attrition in 2016, 2017, 2018 was under 1% each year. That is with every major hiring. Right everyone especially X-VX are leaving in masses. Must be like the Boston massacre, 5 dead and 3 injured. Hey wait it’s an exact match of our attrition.

ImperialxRat
02-02-2019, 04:55 PM
303, 737/320 aircraft by the end of 2024. NG/Max only fleet decision

3,650 seniority by the end of 2024

900 total new hires 2019- end of 2024

320 reduction bid moved from spring 2019 to Summer 2019, most likely June, effective November 1st. (20-30 positions)

Alaska upgrade time for anyone hired 2016 to current should be 7 - 11.5 years. I know that isn’t sexy. Those are just the facts.


These seem like contradictory statements to me.. if we are growing with 900 new hires and ~65 airframes then how would you expect the upgrade time to go to 7-11 years.


Early 2016 hire is ~73% on the list.

Late 2016 hire is ~80% on the list.

OTZeagle1
02-02-2019, 05:22 PM
These seem like contradictory statements to me.. if we are growing with 900 new hires and ~65 airframes then how would you expect the upgrade time to go to 7-11 years.


Early 2016 hire is ~73% on the list.

Late 2016 hire is ~80% on the list.


Dude are you kidding me? He did the math for you. 10% attrition over the next 6 years. We will hire 900 during that time... ding ding that equals roughly 450 CA positions or 450/ 2950 =‘s 16%. 10% + 16% = 26%... that means his numbers are absolutely correct. He said a new hire today would be 72% in 6 years. My math says 74% but I think his math was more precise. And that is only if we hire 900. You are either really bad at math or really new to this industry...

OTZeagle1
02-02-2019, 05:36 PM
These seem like contradictory statements to me.. if we are growing with 900 new hires and ~65 airframes then how would you expect the upgrade time to go to 7-11 years.


Early 2016 hire is ~73% on the list.

Late 2016 hire is ~80% on the list.

August 2016 right now is at 79%
2299/ 2921= 79%

May 2017 right now is at 86%
2505/ 2921= 86%

If low growth happens pilots hired in August of 2016 will move from 79% to 60% or a possible Captain bid by 2025

If high growth happens pilots hired in May 2017 will move from 86% to 60% or a possible Captain bid by 2024

Either way all the Captains are already here

The more I look at it Mea is right, Captain at Alaska for a new hire is realistically 12 years.

Klsytakesit
02-02-2019, 05:37 PM
Alaska is still a good place to pass through on your way to a Major Airline. And if UPS, FedEx, Delta, United, American or Southwest dont call then a 7-11 year upgrade is not a punch in the throat. Hard to say what Contract 2022 will bring. We will have been on Contract 200 (2013)for 9 years by then. For us, the loss of a fleet type will slow down movement considerably. BradBen calls it synergy a synonym for stagnation.

ShyGuy
02-02-2019, 05:41 PM
I missed the annual call, have they said when this year they’ll announce the final fleet plan? Summer? Fall? Year end Dec?

ImperialxRat
02-02-2019, 05:56 PM
Dude are you kidding me? He did the math for you. 10% attrition over the next 6 years. We will hire 900 during that time... ding ding that equals roughly 450 CA positions or 450/ 2950 =‘s 16%. 10% + 16% = 26%... that means his numbers are absolutely correct. He said a new hire today would be 72% in 6 years. My math says 74% but I think his math was more precise. And that is only if we hire 900. You are either really bad at math or really new to this industry...


You need to relax a couple notches.. don't get so worked up over the internet, it's okay.


My comment was related to a 2016 hire, not a new hire today.

OTZeagle1
02-02-2019, 06:15 PM
You need to relax a couple notches.. don't get so worked up over the internet, it's okay.


My comment was related to a 2016 hire, not a new hire today.

No your comment clearly said.....
I A M A I D I OT
A 2016 hire will not upgrade tell mid 2023 to late 2024
It is called mathematics and he gave you the equation

SkyKing466
02-02-2019, 07:11 PM
OTZ is the first one on my avoidance bid whenever I (inevitably) get displaced to the 737... :rolleyes: holy heck man I just hope you're a really good troll and not like that to your fellow crewmembers.

MEA thanks for the info, makes the crystal ball a little clearer

NewGuy01
02-02-2019, 07:14 PM
So has anyone else noticed that the number of red eye trips increased by 118 this month?

I noticed a similar increase last month.

I don’t feel great about that. Does this concern anyone else?


Sent from my iPhone using Tapatalk

OTZeagle1
02-02-2019, 07:24 PM
OTZ is the first one on my avoidance bid whenever I (inevitably) get displaced to the 737... :rolleyes: holy heck man I just hope you're a really good troll and not like that to your fellow crewmembers.

MEA thanks for the info, makes the crystal ball a little clearer

Come on I am just playing... still a little confused, I thought Mea made the numbers pretty easy to understand but whatever. If and when we fly together you will buy no drinks and you will have a great time. In fact if there was a prefer to fly with list, you would put me on it

ShyGuy
02-02-2019, 07:33 PM
There is a prefer to fly with bid called buddy bidding.

ShyGuy
02-02-2019, 07:36 PM
Guys, I say this with complete confidence, we are not merging with anyone.

This is a change from what you previously stated. Any reason to doubt a future acquisition/merger?

lowflying
02-02-2019, 08:46 PM
I love angry texting... excluding retirements, attrition in 2016, 2017, 2018 was under 1% each year. That is with every major hiring. Right everyone especially X-VX are leaving in masses. Must be like the Boston massacre, 5 dead and 3 injured. Hey wait it’s an exact match of our attrition.

You do seem to do a lot of it... There are plenty of us trying to leave don't confuse our bad luck in getting called with exageration..

Griever
02-02-2019, 09:40 PM
I’ve been hearing about some “big” announcement coming this spring. Is it this A/C order? Fingers crossed it’s this and not some large RJ order...

Once the Boeing acquisition is complete of Embraer's commercial division, the announcement will be a firm order of 60 E2 aircraft, 60 options at a significant discount. This will be to lift the sagging order book for the E2, replace the Airbus aircraft, and Benbrad can claim they're still sticking with "Proudly All Boeing."

The rumor is they'll announce QX will fly them, but they real strategy is to just SAY that so we fight hard for scope during contract talks, expending negotiating capital while ignoring other items. Then, once we have scope they'll go mainline.

They'll just poach QX's manual for the majority of the AOM. All they need to do is walk across the street now and open a filing cabinet. Psh, they can even get parts synergy since the QX E-175s have high commonality with the E2.

KnockKnock
02-03-2019, 07:22 AM
Once the Boeing acquisition is complete of Embraer's commercial division, the announcement will be a firm order of 60 E2 aircraft, 60 options at a significant discount. This will be to lift the sagging order book for the E2, replace the Airbus aircraft, and Benbrad can claim they're still sticking with "Proudly All Boeing."

The rumor is they'll announce QX will fly them, but they real strategy is to just SAY that so we fight hard for scope during contract talks, expending negotiating capital while ignoring other items. Then, once we have scope they'll go mainline.

They'll just poach QX's manual for the majority of the AOM. All they need to do is walk across the street now and open a filing cabinet. Psh, they can even get parts synergy since the QX E-175s have high commonality with the E2.
I thought the Brazilian government was putting the kibosh on Boeing’s planned takeover. Granted, I haven’t heard much about the deal in a while but thought it was all but dead. Not to mention, having Embraer’s on Property flies in the face of their single fleet mantra. Don’t get me wrong, if we added them to the fleet for main line pilots to fly, that’d be great but not at the expense of the Airbus. I wouldn’t put it past Bend n Brand though.

Griever
02-03-2019, 07:55 AM
I thought the Brazilian government was putting the kibosh on Boeing’s planned takeover. Granted, I haven’t heard much about the deal in a while but thought it was all but dead. Not to mention, having Embraer’s on Property flies in the face of their single fleet mantra. Don’t get me wrong, if we added them to the fleet for main line pilots to fly, that’d be great but not at the expense of the Airbus. I wouldn’t put it past Bend n Brand though.

Last I read in a Brazilian newspaper, Bolsonaro's government approved the transaction January 10. Shareholder vote on February 26.

If the deal changed, I haven't read about it yet. May I ask where you saw it was a dead deal?

KnockKnock
02-03-2019, 08:29 AM
Last I read in a Brazilian newspaper, Bolsonaro's government approved the transaction January 10. Shareholder vote on February 26.

If the deal changed, I haven't read about it yet. May I ask where you saw it was a dead deal?
Like I said I haven’t read anything about the deal for many months so your info is way more updated than mine. I think I read about it in the Puget Sound Business Journal a while back.

KnockKnock
02-03-2019, 09:22 AM
Looking back at a few article from early Dec. it seems the Brazilian courts put a blockade on the deal but it was lifted after a new administration came to power. I must have stopped reading after that.

snackysmores
02-03-2019, 11:31 AM
Once the Boeing acquisition is complete of Embraer's commercial division, the announcement will be a firm order of 60 E2 aircraft, 60 options at a significant discount. This will be to lift the sagging order book for the E2, replace the Airbus aircraft, and Benbrad can claim they're still sticking with "Proudly All Boeing."

The rumor is they'll announce QX will fly them, but they real strategy is to just SAY that so we fight hard for scope during contract talks, expending negotiating capital while ignoring other items. Then, once we have scope they'll go mainline.

They'll just poach QX's manual for the majority of the AOM. All they need to do is walk across the street now and open a filing cabinet. Psh, they can even get parts synergy since the QX E-175s have high commonality with the E2.

Yeah there's no way I'm flying an E2 coast to coast for scraps off the dinner table. F that. Our contract isn't amendable until 2024 and our Union has told the company any further changes will be through section 6. We're done with them.

Griever
02-03-2019, 12:06 PM
Yeah there's no way I'm flying an E2 coast to coast for scraps off the dinner table. F that. Our contract isn't amendable until 2024 and our Union has told the company any further changes will be through section 6. We're done with them.

Same type rating as the E170/190. Presumably it would be flown under current CBA, just at the +15% rate adjustment.

Klsytakesit
02-03-2019, 02:12 PM
Yeah there's no way I'm flying an E2 coast to coast for scraps off the dinner table. F that. Our contract isn't amendable until 2024 and our Union has told the company any further changes will be through section 6. We're done with them.

Excluding the OR/WA/MT/ID regional route structure, Skywest and Horizon are operating a good chunk of the Alaska Airlines route structure. You will fly the E2 where they tell you for the same scraps as you now fly to STL, ORD, MSP, MCI, DFW, DAL and so on. Horizon will do longer flying and Skywest shorter flying. Your contract assures it.

fivebyfive
02-05-2019, 03:51 PM
Same type rating as the E170/190. Presumably it would be flown under current CBA, just at the +15% rate adjustment.

Correct. Horizon flying the E2s will be the sum of Alaska’s future growth. I’m sure Embraer is slinging some deals considering the Legacies with vision are going with the A220.

AtlCSIP
02-06-2019, 08:19 AM
Correct. Horizon flying the E2s will be the sum of Alaska’s future growth. I’m sure Embraer is slinging some deals considering the Legacies with vision are going with the A220.

Kind of like the legacies with vision fly both Boeing and Airbus products.

Fred Flintstone
02-06-2019, 09:09 AM
This month's Air Transport World has a self congratulatory cover article on "The new Alaska". The picture of a Skywest EMB 170 says everything we pilots need to take away from the rah rah session.

lowflying
02-06-2019, 09:12 AM
This month's Air Transport World has a self congratulatory cover article on "The new Alaska". The picture of a Skywest EMB 170 says everything we pilots need to take away from the rah rah session.
That's both hilarious and depressing. It sums up what we're up against. I bet they asked Alaska for a picture and the brain trust in Seattle sent that.

PNWFlyer
02-06-2019, 12:01 PM
Correct. Horizon flying the E2s will be the sum of Alaska’s future growth. I’m sure Embraer is slinging some deals considering the Legacies with vision are going with the A220.

What? Only 2 US Airlines have orders for the A220 and Jet Blue is not a legacy. The 3rd airline (Moxy) does not yet exist. Oh, and Republic has an order that is in limbo.

https://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/List_of_Airbus_A220_orders_and_deliveries

fivebyfive
02-06-2019, 02:12 PM
[QUOTE=PNWFlyer;2758303]What? Only 2 US Airlines have orders for the A220 and Jet Blue is not a legacy. The 3rd airline (Moxy) does not yet exist. Oh, and Republic has an order that is in limbo.

https://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/List_of_Airbus_A220_orders_and_deliveries[/

And more will follow. Just not Alaska. They are too enamored with screwing their pilots over with no scope.

PNWFlyer
02-06-2019, 06:57 PM
[QUOTE=PNWFlyer;2758303]What? Only 2 US Airlines have orders for the A220 and Jet Blue is not a legacy. The 3rd airline (Moxy) does not yet exist. Oh, and Republic has an order that is in limbo.

https://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/List_of_Airbus_A220_orders_and_deliveries[/

And more will follow. Just not Alaska. They are too enamored with screwing their pilots over with no scope.

When and who will that be exactly? American flies the E-190. Go Jet ordered CRJs for United. Southwest?

Wynncore
02-07-2019, 07:37 AM
Yeah there's no way I'm flying an E2 coast to coast for scraps off the dinner table. F that. Our contract isn't amendable until 2024 and our Union has told the company any further changes will be through section 6. We're done with them.

Yes you will.

Wynncore
02-07-2019, 07:42 AM
[QUOTE=PNWFlyer;2758303]What? Only 2 US Airlines have orders for the A220 and Jet Blue is not a legacy. The 3rd airline (Moxy) does not yet exist. Oh, and Republic has an order that is in limbo.

https://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/List_of_Airbus_A220_orders_and_deliveries[/

And more will follow. Just not Alaska. They are too enamored with screwing their pilots over with no scope.

Exactly. BT does what is in the best interest of Alaska Air Group, not Alaska Airlines. Alaska Airlines has zero scope protection, none, so if it benefits AAG to have an E2 or A220 operate on the QX level (which the QX pilot group will take if it means more money and growth) then that is what will happen. The other alternative is Alaska management chooses to place the E2 or A220 with the Alaska pilot group but forces you to cave on major issues in Contract 2020 in order to obtain them. You all know how Angle Lake works and you know it all comes down to the cheapest option and to heck with all else, feelings and morale included.

PNWFlyer
02-07-2019, 08:06 AM
[QUOTE=fivebyfive;2758432]

Exactly. BT does what is in the best interest of Alaska Air Group, not Alaska Airlines. Alaska Airlines has zero scope protection, none, so if it benefits AAG to have an E2 or A220 operate on the QX level (which the QX pilot group will take if it means more money and growth) then that is what will happen. The other alternative is Alaska management chooses to place the E2 or A220 with the Alaska pilot group but forces you to cave on major issues in Contract 2020 in order to obtain them. You all know how Angle Lake works and you know it all comes down to the cheapest option and to heck with all else, feelings and morale included.

Sorry that last part was not meant to be in my post, but it and you are correct on the last part.

"And more will follow. Just not Alaska." neither the E-190E2 or the A-220 are setting the order books on fire.

Why? Scope. We do not have it but others do and that gives us limited protection... for now.

I am more worried about 787's with Eskimo Joe on the tail that say "Operated by Atlas" on the side.

Fred Flintstone
02-07-2019, 08:18 AM
You should be worried about RJs, narrowbodies and widebodies with eskimo joe on the tail and not operated by AS pilots. The threat is real and can come in any form.


While the good economy and "pilot shortage" is a quasi protection right now, the economy can tank and the politicians can delete the 1500 hour rule.


Without a scope clause you are unable to enforce your contract at all.


Contract 2020 is going to be ugly and drawn out. Best hope is the eskimo gets bought out as B&B are going to make you pay big for scope.


I am glad I am out of here!

PNWFlyer
02-07-2019, 08:29 AM
B&B are going to make you pay big for scope.

They can't make us do anything, we have to do it to ourselves.

snackysmores
02-09-2019, 08:04 AM
Yes you will.

Please do something about it then.