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View Full Version : Big DC meeting didn’t go well?


K92plane
02-14-2019, 02:53 AM
For the last 6 months everyone has said growth is coming... did you all find out it’s not?


Avroman
02-14-2019, 03:01 AM
The current official word here is growth plans had to be delayed from 4th quarter 2018 to 4th quarter 2019. The optimism/pessimism meter has certainly been moving away from optimism more lately but there has not been any official announcement of where to expect the growth nor where to expect it from so it should all be buyer beware basing any decisions here on expected growth.

TalkTurkey
02-14-2019, 03:28 AM
That’s the old rumor.


Mustang62
02-14-2019, 05:28 AM
That’s the old rumor.

What’s the new one?

prex8390
02-14-2019, 05:36 AM
What’s the new one?

“Allegedly” the growth rumor is potentially not when but if

PotatoChip
02-14-2019, 05:40 AM
“Allegedly” the growth rumor is potentially not when but if

In recurrent they made it very clear that it was "if".

bronc
02-14-2019, 06:26 AM
In recurrent they made it very clear that it was "if".

How did they say this? What happened?

prex8390
02-14-2019, 08:23 AM
How did they say this? What happened?

When I was at recurrent in early January, Management said something that there’s like a dozen different scenarios lined up on the future of DCI. Knowing Delta, they’ve changed their minds like 10000 times over the last year about how to proceed. They’re probably on scenerio number 4 which is merge everyone into 3 airlines and no growth for us Or whatever. Next month it could be scenerio 9 and we will be getting 40 175s and a SLC base. It’s just a wait and see until they formally announce something. That’s my 2 cents. I’m sure the rumor mill will be going nuts over summer.

TalkTurkey
02-14-2019, 08:31 AM
The naked truth is this. Skywest has a very cheap cost basis, especially with modular rate structure they offer delta for many cities out west. Mod rates change under variable conditions. What’s this mean? It means they don’t have a CPA and it’s much cheaper. That plus they fly the better plane makes 9E growth questionable during inflation, market volatility and higher fuel prices. Then there’s the A220 which changes the game completely. This thing burns 1600 a side fully loaded at Mach 0.79 at FL400. Short runways and steep approach angles. Delta may be in their 10,000th mind change, but doing the math, growth at 9E makes no bloody sense.

theUpsideDown
02-14-2019, 08:54 AM
That’s my 2 cents. I’m sure the rumor mill will be going nuts over summer.

You're 2 cents is dead right. The only thing I'd add to you and turkey is that of the dozen scenarios the management at EDV chooses to talk up the one that's best for us and pretends it's a forgone conclusion we're gonna get anything. I don't think that makes them bad people, but the rah-rah cheerleading culture gets very old very fast when you admit for the 4x in 3 years that we as a company don't know what's going on.

Mesabah
02-14-2019, 08:58 AM
The naked truth is this. Skywest has a very cheap cost basis, especially with modular rate structure they offer delta for many cities out west. Mod rates change under variable conditions. What’s this mean? It means they don’t have a CPA and it’s much cheaper. That plus they fly the better plane makes 9E growth questionable during inflation, market volatility and higher fuel prices. Then there’s the A220 which changes the game completely. This thing burns 1600 a side fully loaded at Mach 0.79 at FL400. Short runways and steep approach angles. Delta may be in their 10,000th mind change, but doing the math, growth at 9E makes no bloody sense.
Delta tried to transfer RAH's east coast slots to Endeavor, but the bankruptcy judge denied that request. That's what really hurt us as far as having something Delta needs. We are just a poker chip like GoJet, and Compass. We had it good during the pilot shortage, but now that that is over, we are the highest cost option.

theUpsideDown
02-14-2019, 09:02 AM
Delta tried to transfer RAH's east coast slots to Endeavor, but the bankruptcy judge denied that request. That's what really hurt us as far as having something Delta needs. We are just a poker chip like GoJet, and Compass. We had it good during the pilot shortage, but now that that is over, we are the highest cost option.
I cant wrap my head around this: the fix for the "shortage" was to pay more. Now the solution is our achilles heel? If that's true then management better get creative.

I think we're just looking at stagnation and a long way away (couple years) a wind down.

Mesabah
02-14-2019, 09:32 AM
I cant wrap my head around this: the fix for the "shortage" was to pay more. Now the solution is our achilles heel? If that's true then management better get creative.

I think we're just looking at stagnation and a long way away (couple years) a wind down.
We have 6 years left on the Bridge agreement, so we will be around that long at least. The pilot shortage was not caused by pay, it was caused by lag time for the 1500hr rule. They had to pay more to stop people from bailing out of here to other regionals. Those pilots that bailed have flowed to AA already.
The people we are hiring now started flying while we were still paying bankruptcy wages. Airlines that pay significantly less than us are filling classes.

theUpsideDown
02-14-2019, 09:47 AM
We have 6 years left on the Bridge agreement, so we will be around that long at least. The pilot shortage was not caused by pay, it was caused by lag time for the 1500hr rule. They had to pay more to stop people from bailing out of here to other regionals. Those pilots that bailed have flowed to AA already.
The people we are hiring now started flying while we were still paying bankruptcy wages. Airlines that pay significantly less than us are filling classes.

I suppose. It seemed like our wages increased enough to grab the 135 guys that always stuck their noses up at the regionals. I guess I'd need more data to explore the past better.

Hiring is still going to increase at majors, maybe the stagnation and DGI results will push guys to airlines besides Delta. Except for the senior 500 I suppose.

Flogger
02-14-2019, 12:45 PM
I'm not hungry for these Wheaties anymore.

Thanks a bunch guys.

K92plane
02-14-2019, 02:19 PM
Doesn’t sound good as far as advancement and QOL for new hires

flydiamond
02-14-2019, 02:48 PM
Doesn’t sound good as far as advancement and QOL for new hires

I’ll take rumors on here with a grain of salt, but it is definitely true that a new hire today will have nowhere near the opportunity and qol someone hired here in 2015 thru early 2016 enjoys. For that we’d need growth and 30+ a month attrition in parallel, which both seem like a long shot the way things have been and are looking.

theUpsideDown
02-14-2019, 02:56 PM
I'm not hungry for these Wheaties anymore.

Thanks a bunch guys.

Welcome to the airline industry. Its never great for long.

Avroman
02-14-2019, 03:32 PM
Welcome to the airline industry. Its never great for long.

Gee didn't I warn this wasn't a never ending gravy train a couple years ago???? I didn't say it was going to be as bad as guys my seniority had it, but it wasn't going to be the place to go for ever. I hope the junior guys are happy with what improvements we have for reserves now, and I hope the junior lineholders didn't get too comfortable in case the doo doo hits the sprayer :eek: Anyone still sitting here just waiting on the DGI alone and not putting apps out to all the other options, well I guess you can lead a fool to water but you can't force them to drink it. Keep in mind the top 500 on the list are basically all lifers so keep that in your calculations too. We aren't going anywhere until downgrade is impending, if then.

Mustang62
02-14-2019, 04:30 PM
Gee didn't I warn this wasn't a never ending gravy train a couple years ago???? I didn't say it was going to be as bad as guys my seniority had it, but it wasn't going to be the place to go for ever. I hope the junior guys are happy with what improvements we have for reserves now, and I hope the junior lineholders didn't get too comfortable in case the doo doo hits the sprayer :eek: Anyone still sitting here just waiting on the DGI alone and not putting apps out to all the other options, well I guess you can lead a fool to water but you can't force them to drink it. Keep in mind the top 500 on the list are basically all lifers so keep that in your calculations too. We aren't going anywhere until downgrade is impending, if then.

I’m curious, what reserve improvements have been made at EDV?

flydiamond
02-14-2019, 04:40 PM
I’m curious, what reserve improvements have been made at EDV?

Since 2015:

Additional day off (11-13 days off, usually 12).

Early release if unused on last day.

Elimination of reserve leveling (a reserve now fights a chance to break guarantee versus being capped as they near 75 hours of credit).

Ability to commute in during call out window (eg can arrive in nyc at 12:30 instead of 10:00 am).

Reserves are 100% free to pick up flying on days off as long as they provide the rest prior to starting a reserve assignment. (Or after).

Reduction in ready reserve assignment, only 3 per seat per day up to 10 times a month per person (great unless you’re one of the bottom 15 plugs).

30% long call.

Alternate deadhead home (huge for reserves since many assignments end with a deadhead).

These are just a few things I can think of.

Avroman
02-14-2019, 05:30 PM
Since 2015:

Additional day off (11-13 days off, usually 12).

Early release if unused on last day.

Elimination of reserve leveling (a reserve now fights a chance to break guarantee versus being capped as they near 75 hours of credit).

Ability to commute in during call out window (eg can arrive in nyc at 12:30 instead of 10:00 am).

Reserves are 100% free to pick up flying on days off as long as they provide the rest prior to starting a reserve assignment. (Or after).

Reduction in ready reserve assignment, only 3 per seat per day up to 10 times a month per person (great unless you’re one of the bottom 15 plugs).

30% long call.

Alternate deadhead home (huge for reserves since many assignments end with a deadhead).

These are just a few things I can think of.

Then there was the biggest thing, 100% DH pay. That took every day from min day to over min day and thus every month over guarantee. You WILL deadhead a LOT on reserve. at 50% you still were at min day every day, at 100% DH pay, almost every day breaks guarantee, thus almost every month breaks guarantee.

PotatoChip
02-14-2019, 05:34 PM
Then there was the biggest thing, 100% DH pay. That took every day from min day to over min day and thus every month over guarantee. You WILL deadhead a LOT on reserve. at 50% you still were at min day every day, at 100% DH pay, almost every day breaks guarantee, thus almost every month breaks guarantee.

I’ve been on reserve a year and have maybe DH’d five times?
Is that a lot?
And I’m at about 80% of the reserves in base.

PotatoChip
02-14-2019, 05:36 PM
How did they say this? What happened?

Russ came in and never said “when”. It was only “if”. I picked up on it immediately. He mentioned that in the fall of 2019 all the contracts are up for bid and IF we get one... there will be lots of flying etc. We are in a great place to get more flying... but it’s IF.

theUpsideDown
02-14-2019, 06:45 PM
Russ came in and never said “when”. It was only “if”. I picked up on it immediately. He mentioned that in the fall of 2019 all the contracts are up for bid and IF we get one... there will be lots of flying etc. We are in a great place to get more flying... but it’s IF.

Its time he stopped promising the moon.

Still love ya Russ, just quit cheerleading. Love ya bud.

K92plane
02-14-2019, 06:50 PM
Its time he stopped promising the moon.

Still love ya Russ, just quit cheerleading. Love ya bud.

Worse case is what reserve 12+ months, upgrade in 4 years.. no flow but big pay?

theUpsideDown
02-14-2019, 07:16 PM
Worse case is what reserve 12+ months, upgrade in 4 years.. no flow but big pay?

Well no, worse case is parking 200s. Worse case is furlough even if we don't park since we're over staffed by about 200-400 pilots depending whose numbers you believe more. I wouldn't invite the "oh man whats the worse that could happen" cliche.

Now everyone reading the above don't panick. Just highlighting what a worse case is. We staffed for airplanes that never came, and might never. Most companies would have already started furloughing. We seem happy to keep the extra guys around.

gojo
02-15-2019, 08:47 AM
Russ came in and never said “when”. It was only “if”. I picked up on it immediately. He mentioned that in the fall of 2019 all the contracts are up for bid and IF we get one... there will be lots of flying etc. We are in a great place to get more flying... but it’s IF.

Ah yes, the whipsaw is alive and well. How many times have we been promised more airplanes in the last 6 years only to have it go to Skywest or stay at GoJet? The only exception was the ExpressJet airplanes. It seems that Delta leaks these rumors intentionally around CPA renewal time as to scare Skywest and TSH into better terms for Delta. Heck, I wouldn’t be surprised if that video of E.B. Wasn’t leaked intentionally. As the saying goes, it isn’t happening until the planes are on property. The rest is just smoke and mirrors. A game Delta is very good at playing

Avroman
02-15-2019, 12:39 PM
Another reason the younger guys shouldn't be sitting around here passing up other opportunities waiting on the DGI program.

Dingus
02-23-2019, 11:35 AM
Another reason the younger guys shouldn't be sitting around here passing up other opportunities waiting on the DGI program.

Shhhhhh! I love to see delusional kids with their hats on waiting for the DGI. That way their apps aren't in the way of my crappy credentials looking good enough for a LCC to give me a call.

Seriously though, you couldn't be more right.

Thrust Hold
02-25-2019, 10:10 AM
The “Delta Shuffle” is a term for a reason. Those that have been around for a bit have felt the pain, but also reaped some of the benefits.

Casualinterest
02-26-2019, 01:24 PM
Fwiw, if you read the 2019 Flight Plan, (that no one reads) it explicitly talks about fleet growth. This is our Delta approved business plan for the year.


Elevate Our Financial Efficiencies
We saw strong financial performances across the board in 2018, and with anticipated growth for later this year, we will focus on ensuring our business is healthy and up to the task of taking on incremental airplanes. With the additional fleet growth, we will also ensure our plan to support those airplanes is aligned with the appropriate personnel and resources across the company to deliver on our performance. We welcome the challenge of running a sound business, while finding unique ways to improve an already solid financial foundation.


Overall, this 2019 Flight Plan evokes an air of excitement and energy that I believe captures the true vibe of what’s happening here at Endeavor. Please take some time to review it, learn it, and live it. The Flight Plan will be our roadmap by which we navigate through this year. 2019 promises to be a big year for us here at Endeavor, so let’s all do our part in ensuring we elevate our future success through sound decision-making and safety-conscious actions.

Sent from my SM-G965U using Tapatalk

Fourpaw
02-26-2019, 01:42 PM
Fwiw, if you read the 2019 Flight Plan, (that no one reads) it explicitly talks about fleet growth. This is our Delta approved business plan for the year.


Elevate Our Financial Efficiencies
We saw strong financial performances across the board in 2018, and with anticipated growth for later this year, we will focus on ensuring our business is healthy and up to the task of taking on incremental airplanes. With the additional fleet growth, we will also ensure our plan to support those airplanes is aligned with the appropriate personnel and resources across the company to deliver on our performance. We welcome the challenge of running a sound business, while finding unique ways to improve an already solid financial foundation.


Overall, this 2019 Flight Plan evokes an air of excitement and energy that I believe captures the true vibe of what’s happening here at Endeavor. Please take some time to review it, learn it, and live it. The Flight Plan will be our roadmap by which we navigate through this year. 2019 promises to be a big year for us here at Endeavor, so let’s all do our part in ensuring we elevate our future success through sound decision-making and safety-conscious actions.

Sent from my SM-G965U using Tapatalk

Your cup... is most certainly half-full.

Casualinterest
02-26-2019, 01:44 PM
Your cup... is most certainly half-full.Lol I didn't write it, just saying.. this isn't all ghost stories and Urban legend. We have posters

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KSCessnaDriver
02-26-2019, 02:24 PM
Fwiw, if you read the 2019 Flight Plan, (that no one reads) it explicitly talks about fleet growth. This is our Delta approved business plan for the year.


Elevate Our Financial Efficiencies
We saw strong financial performances across the board in 2018, and with anticipated growth for later this year, we will focus on ensuring our business is healthy and up to the task of taking on incremental airplanes. With the additional fleet growth, we will also ensure our plan to support those airplanes is aligned with the appropriate personnel and resources across the company to deliver on our performance. We welcome the challenge of running a sound business, while finding unique ways to improve an already solid financial foundation.


Overall, this 2019 Flight Plan evokes an air of excitement and energy that I believe captures the true vibe of what’s happening here at Endeavor. Please take some time to review it, learn it, and live it. The Flight Plan will be our roadmap by which we navigate through this year. 2019 promises to be a big year for us here at Endeavor, so let’s all do our part in ensuring we elevate our future success through sound decision-making and safety-conscious actions.

Sent from my SM-G965U using Tapatalk

It did last year too...

Casualinterest
02-26-2019, 02:26 PM
It did last year too...And didn't we get planes last year? At least the last few deliveries? I guess I'll have to go find the 2018 flight plan and read it.

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theUpsideDown
02-27-2019, 02:40 AM
And didn't we get planes last year? At least the last few deliveries? I guess I'll have to go find the 2018 flight plan and read it.

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Find out the 2014 flight plan, middle of the panel, "become deltas cheapest and best regional". They squirmed their way out of that one pretending we were all cheap for other reasons.