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View Full Version : < 6 Year Flow


UnprotectdPilot
05-22-2019, 02:49 PM
From the Envoy Pilot Recruitment's FB page today:
https://i.imgur.com/iDEX5uz.png

From the outdated February 2019 interactive seniority list:
https://i.imgur.com/usz9gCG.jpg

8.89 years (and higher now)
I would LOVE to see how the company "projects" it's estimated flow times. It's the only reason people still keep coming here and it's built on a mountain of lies.


UnprotectdPilot
05-22-2019, 03:03 PM
bUt ThAtS jUsT tHe UnIoNs PrEdIcTiOn

LOL.


ALPA's worst guesses are better than Envoy's facts.

Varsity
05-22-2019, 03:03 PM
From the Envoy Pilot Recruitment's FB page today:
https://i.imgur.com/iDEX5uz.png

From the outdated February 2019 interactive seniority list:
https://i.imgur.com/usz9gCG.jpg

8.89 years (and higher now)
I would LOVE to see how the company "projects" it's estimated flow times. It's the only reason people still keep coming here and it's built on a mountain of lies.

It really is blatant false advertising.


Pedro4President
05-22-2019, 03:07 PM
8.9 is just as false.

uavking
05-22-2019, 03:19 PM
8.9 is just as false.

If you are senior to me: 8.9 makes sense. Go to Spirit, et al.

If you're junior: Look, there is no way that 200-ish lifers are going to suddenly change their minds and flow. Obviously, we need to see the methodology behind both recruiting and ALPA numbers to be sure, but the truth is probably somewhere between both figures. Weight could likely be given to the recruiting number simply because their formula probably eliminates projected lifers (whether they've declined already or by age) from the get go.

Gotta play the long game, but also keep your options open.

highfarfast
05-22-2019, 03:29 PM
If you are senior to me: 8.9 makes sense. Go to Spirit, et al.

If you're junior: Look, there is no way that 200-ish lifers are going to suddenly change their minds and flow. Obviously, we need to see the methodology behind both recruiting and ALPA numbers to be sure, but the truth is probably somewhere between both figures. Weight could likely be given to the recruiting number simply because their formula probably eliminates projected lifers (whether they've declined already or by age) from the get go.

Gotta play the long game, but also keep your options open.

Actually, itís pretty easy to see the unionís method. Just look at the spreadsheet for interactive seniority list. AND it DOES account for the lifers staying put. What it doesnít account for is attrition, which speeds flow, nor does it account for months where American hires little or no pilots, which slows flow.

rld1k
05-22-2019, 04:02 PM
LOL.


ALPA's worst guesses are better than Envoy's facts.

I deleted it because I thought the irony might be lost on new hires :rolleyes:

LowvalueFO
05-22-2019, 07:39 PM
"and earn a great salary", since when is one of the lowest salaries amongst the other regionals a great salary - gotta love the word games ...

Cyio
05-23-2019, 04:37 AM
Perhaps they are starting to feel the pinch. While I don't have FB I would love to see the replies people are posting. Hopefully calling them out on their lies.

Voski
05-23-2019, 04:56 AM
Perhaps they are starting to feel the pinch. While I don't have FB I would love to see the replies people are posting. Hopefully calling them out on their lies.

I saw some comments calling them out but they seem to have mysteriously disappeared, almost as if they were deleted or hidden by their social media manager.

Houpilot2001
05-23-2019, 05:05 AM
I saw some comments calling them out but they seem to have mysteriously disappeared, almost as if they were deleted or hidden by their social media manager.

Happens all the time. Its pointless posting anything.

Cyio
05-23-2019, 05:21 AM
Happens all the time. Its pointless posting anything.

Even so, if one person sees it before they delete it that would be a win. I can't imagine they are monitoring it 24/7.

Voski
05-23-2019, 05:35 AM
"and earn a great salary", since when is one of the lowest salaries amongst the other regionals a great salary - gotta love the word games ...

Exactly. There’s a reason the only numeric value posted was flow length, because that’s really all Envoy has going for it these days — and even that is being exaggerated by 150%-200%. Anyone that truly educates themselves on the employment opportunities in today’s market isn’t going to come here; Envoy is currently only acquiring the people that would also fall for ‘big d’ pill ads.

The “great salary” line has me laughing. The average U.S. median income is $59,039. Think about it.

KodiakRS
05-23-2019, 06:55 AM
8.89 years (and higher now)
I would LOVE to see how the company "projects" it's estimated flow times. It's the only reason people still keep coming here and it's built on a mountain of lies.

The following is based on 80 pilots per month being hired at AA. (80 total, not just flow) Historically there has been at least one month per year at AA with zero new hires, typically December, actual hiring numbers may vary but 80 is what both the union and the company think is an accurate number.

New hire seniority: 2400 As per most recent flow plan
Non flowing pilots: 200 As per most recent interactive list

According to the MEC newsblast on 12/7/18 we had a non flow attrition of 205 YTD or about 19 per month. We'll assume this rate remains consistent for the foreseeable future. Because pilots about to flow are significantly less likely to peruse employment outside of flow we'll assume those 19 per month come from the last flow group.

Protected pilots: 29/month -1 month per year for AA training backlog. -2 months for AA training to get through s80/190 retirement training bubble. About 200 pilots remaining in group

200/29 = 7 Months with flow + 3 months of non flow.
10 months * 19/month non attrition flow = 190 pilots

It will take another 10 months for the protected pilots to flow during which time we will lose a total of 390 pilots.

Unprotected pilots: 15/month -1 month for AA training backlog. There are 148 pilots in this group.

148/15= 10 months + 1 month of non flow
11months * 19/month non attrition flow = 209

It will take 11 months for the unprotected pilots to flow during which time we will lose a total of 357 pilots.

Summary for first 2 flow groups: It will be 21 months until the first pilot from the post agreement flow group starts. During this time we will lose about 750 pilots.

New Hires: The remaining pilots will flow at a rate of 5 per month + (Senority list-480)/125. Or about 20 per month.

New hire seniority (2400) - Non flowing pilots (200) - pilots in protected and unprotected flow groups (750) = 1450 pilots left to flow from last flow group.

19 Attrition per month + 18.3 average flow per month (20/month for 11 months out of the year due to AA not hiring in December) =37.3 pilots per month

1,450/37.3 per month = 39 months from start of last flow group + 21 months for first 2 flow groups = 60 months until flow.

So accounting for the various flow group rates, historical attrition, AA not hiring due to both s80/190 retirements and typically not running classes in December it should take about 5 years for a newhire to flow. Add in a year for hiring slowdowns, less attrition the predicted, and other shenanigans. 6 years to flow for a new hire isn't totally outside the realm of possibility. Of course 6 years is a lot longer than the 2-3 months it takes to polish your resume, take your suit to the cleaners, go to a few job fairs, and get yourself a new job half a decade before your peers who wait for flow.

dera
05-23-2019, 07:13 AM
The following is based on 80 pilots per month being hired at AA. (80 total, not just flow) Historically there has been at least one month per year at AA with zero new hires, typically December, actual hiring numbers may vary but 80 is what both the union and the company think is an accurate number.

New hire seniority: 2400 As per most recent flow plan
Non flowing pilots: 200 As per most recent interactive list

According to the MEC newsblast on 12/7/18 we had a non flow attrition of 205 YTD or about 19 per month. We'll assume this rate remains consistent for the foreseeable future. Because pilots about to flow are significantly less likely to peruse employment outside of flow we'll assume those 19 per month come from the last flow group.

Protected pilots: 29/month -1 month per year for AA training backlog. -2 months for AA training to get through s80/190 retirement training bubble. About 200 pilots remaining in group

200/29 = 7 Months with flow + 3 months of non flow.
10 months * 19/month non attrition flow = 190 pilots

It will take another 10 months for the protected pilots to flow during which time we will lose a total of 390 pilots.

Unprotected pilots: 15/month -1 month for AA training backlog. There are 148 pilots in this group.

148/15= 10 months + 1 month of non flow
11months * 19/month non attrition flow = 209

It will take 11 months for the unprotected pilots to flow during which time we will lose a total of 357 pilots.

Summary for first 2 flow groups: It will be 21 months until the first pilot from the post agreement flow group starts. During this time we will lose about 750 pilots.

New Hires: The remaining pilots will flow at a rate of 5 per month + (Senority list-480)/125. Or about 20 per month.

New hire seniority (2400) - Non flowing pilots (200) - pilots in protected and unprotected flow groups (750) = 1450 pilots left to flow from last flow group.

19 Attrition per month + 18.3 average flow per month (20/month for 11 months out of the year due to AA not hiring in December) =37.3 pilots per month

1,450/37.3 per month = 39 months from start of last flow group + 21 months for first 2 flow groups = 60 months until flow.

So accounting for the various flow group rates, historical attrition, AA not hiring due to both s80/190 retirements and typically not running classes in December it should take about 5 years for a newhire to flow. Add in a year for hiring slowdowns, less attrition the predicted, and other shenanigans. 6 years to flow for a new hire isn't totally outside the realm of possibility. Of course 6 years is a lot longer than the 2-3 months it takes to polish your resume, take your suit to the cleaners, go to a few job fairs, and get yourself a new job half a decade before your peers who wait for flow.

This +1.

The only adjustment I would make is that you assume every non-flow pilot leaving is senior to you. The number of senior pilots leaving gets lower the more senior you are, but you already added a year in there.
I'd say 6-6.5 years is realistic. Time will tell.

Read posts from 2015/2016 when people said "5 years to flow hahahaa that will never happen"...

It takes 2-3 years at a regional to hit 1000TPIC, which often is considered "competitive" for the big boys. So difference isn't half a decade, but 2-3 years. This for the average CFI->regional career path. YMMV if you did 135 PIC or similar before getting in.

Pedro4President
05-23-2019, 07:13 AM
The following is based on 80 pilots per month being hired at AA. (80 total, not just flow) Historically there has been at least one month per year at AA with zero new hires, typically December, actual hiring numbers may vary but 80 is what both the union and the company think is an accurate number.

New hire seniority: 2400 As per most recent flow plan
Non flowing pilots: 200 As per most recent interactive list

According to the MEC newsblast on 12/7/18 we had a non flow attrition of 205 YTD or about 19 per month. We'll assume this rate remains consistent for the foreseeable future. Because pilots about to flow are significantly less likely to peruse employment outside of flow we'll assume those 19 per month come from the last flow group.

Protected pilots: 29/month -1 month per year for AA training backlog. -2 months for AA training to get through s80/190 retirement training bubble. About 200 pilots remaining in group

200/29 = 7 Months with flow + 3 months of non flow.
10 months * 19/month non attrition flow = 190 pilots

It will take another 10 months for the protected pilots to flow during which time we will lose a total of 390 pilots.

Unprotected pilots: 15/month -1 month for AA training backlog. There are 148 pilots in this group.

148/15= 10 months + 1 month of non flow
11months * 19/month non attrition flow = 209

It will take 11 months for the unprotected pilots to flow during which time we will lose a total of 357 pilots.

Summary for first 2 flow groups: It will be 21 months until the first pilot from the post agreement flow group starts. During this time we will lose about 750 pilots.

New Hires: The remaining pilots will flow at a rate of 5 per month + (Senority list-480)/125. Or about 20 per month.

New hire seniority (2400) - Non flowing pilots (200) - pilots in protected and unprotected flow groups (750) = 1450 pilots left to flow from last flow group.

19 Attrition per month + 18.3 average flow per month (20/month for 11 months out of the year due to AA not hiring in December) =37.3 pilots per month

1,450/37.3 per month = 39 months from start of last flow group + 21 months for first 2 flow groups = 60 months until flow.

So accounting for the various flow group rates, historical attrition, AA not hiring due to both s80/190 retirements and typically not running classes in December it should take about 5 years for a newhire to flow. Add in a year for hiring slowdowns, less attrition the predicted, and other shenanigans. 6 years to flow for a new hire isn't totally outside the realm of possibility. Of course 6 years is a lot longer than the 2-3 months it takes to polish your resume, take your suit to the cleaners, go to a few job fairs, and get yourself a new job half a decade before your peers who wait for flow.

First off I agree that a 5-6 year flow is possible for a new hire but I don't think it is sustainable. I'd guess we end up somewhere around the 7ish mark give or take a few months. There will be wide ranging flow time for guys over the next two years. It will hit 5 years and MAY even dip below that. It will then spike up over the next year.

The crux of the 5-6 year flow rate is ATTRITION!!!! The average attrition maybe 19 per month but that doesn't impact your flow date at a 1:1 ratio. The more senior you are the less attrition impacts your flow. Your calculations doesn't seem to factor in this HUGE impact on flow.

BigZ
05-23-2019, 07:35 AM
The crux of the 5-6 year flow rate is ATTRITION!!!! The average attrition maybe 19 per month but that doesn't impact your flow date at a 1:1 ratio. The more senior you are the less attrition impacts your flow. Your calculations doesn't seem to factor in this HUGE impact on flow.
Very much this.
We'll see how the attrition works when the list is updated next January, but for 2018 out of 200ish pilots of non-flow attrition something like 140ish were within the first 2-2.5 yrs of DOH
I remember using 10 a month as an average outside attrition for flow time calculations, and the 2018 data did not support that.

highfarfast
05-23-2019, 07:42 AM
Almost all of our non-flow attrition comes from people in their first two years here, and even most of those are in their first year here. These are people with prior 121 or military that just need to get current to be competitive to the majors and people that canít cut it or people that realize this life isnít for them. The guys that need to stay here to build time to be competitive are waiting for flow. So, for MOST of a new recruitís time here, non-flow attrition is almost irrelevant.

Cyio
05-23-2019, 08:06 AM
Almost all of our non-flow attrition comes from people in their first two years here, and even most of those are in their first year here. These are people with prior 121 or military that just need to get current to be competitive to the majors and people that canít cut it or people that realize this life isnít for them. The guys that need to stay here to build time to be competitive are waiting for flow. So, for MOST of a new recruitís time here, non-flow attrition is almost irrelevant.

This exactly. Plus Dera believing that 1000 TPIC is competitive proves he is a company shill or out of touch.

dera
05-23-2019, 08:28 AM
This exactly. Plus Dera believing that 1000 TPIC is competitive proves he is a company shill or out of touch.

So are you saying you need more, or less?

uavking
05-23-2019, 08:59 AM
So are you saying you need more, or less?

It's a baseline figure. Off the top of my head, United has said the average civilian new hire comes with something like 5-6000 TT and over 1000 121 PIC.

(Cue someone chiming in with tales of some 25 y/o FO they know who got on at UA/DL...)

dera
05-23-2019, 09:10 AM
It's a baseline figure. Off the top of my head, United has said the average civilian new hire comes with something like 5-6000 TT and over 1000 121 PIC.

(Cue someone chiming in with tales of some 25 y/o FO they know who got on at UA/DL...)

Yes, that's exactly what I said. That's also why I had the "" there.
It takes 2-3 years to be marginally competitive (with the 1000TPIC). So you won't lose half a decade waiting for flow, you might lose a few years.

All of this is 100% speculation. We have two numbers, one says 5.5 years, one says 9 years. Both are wrong. Truth is somewhere in the middle.

buddies8
05-23-2019, 09:17 AM
These numbers a predicated on maitining 19 a month attrition in addition to the flow. What happens if there is no attrition. You be better off planning for no more than 10 attrition and you may be in the ballpark

dera
05-23-2019, 09:22 AM
These numbers a predicated on maitining 19 a month attrition in addition to the flow. What happens if there is no attrition. You be better off planning for no more than 10 attrition and you may be in the ballpark

10 a month puts it right at 6 years.

highfarfast
05-23-2019, 09:32 AM
These numbers a predicated on maitining 19 a month attrition in addition to the flow. What happens if there is no attrition. You be better off planning for no more than 10 attrition and you may be in the ballpark

Correction, 19 a month attrition senior to Ďyouí.

Which isnít reasonable.

The union numbers are more realistic than the companies recruiting material.

3EngineTaxi
05-23-2019, 09:32 AM
All of this is 100% speculation. We have two numbers, one says 5.5 years, one says 9 years. Both are wrong. Truth is somewhere in the middle.
It's also speculation to say 'truth is somewhere in the middle.' We won't know for the next 5.5-9 years or more. We won't know until it has happened (if it happens at all).

So knock yourself out and speculate all you want. The best thing to in the meantime is keep the applications up to date. I can think of 11 career airlines currently or periodically hiring.

AV8R72
05-23-2019, 09:32 AM
Now that lots of the non WO have flow agreements with Frontier, which essentially stops FOs from those regionals applying outside the flow, doesn’t it seem likely attrition to Frontier and ULCCs will increase from within the Envoy ranks?

highfarfast
05-23-2019, 09:34 AM
Now that lots of the non WO have flow agreements with Frontier, which essentially stops FOs from those regionals applying outside the flow, doesn’t it seem likely attrition to Frontier and ULCCs will increase from within the Envoy ranks?

This is obviously a joke but I’m not sure which part you’re intending as a joke...

dera
05-23-2019, 09:36 AM
It's also speculation to say 'truth is somewhere in the middle.' We won't know for the next 5.5-9 years or more. We won't know until it has happened (if it happens at all).

So knock yourself out and speculate all you want. The best thing to in the meantime is keep the applications up to date. I can think of 11 career airlines currently or periodically hiring.

I thought speculation is appropriate in a thread solely based on speculation.
Agree 100% on the last bit.

AV8R72
05-23-2019, 09:37 AM
This is obviously a joke but Iím not sure which part youíre intending as a joke...

Iím not an airline pilot, I just read the forums. It wasnít a joke. GoJet and TSA were both losing several a month to Frontier so they made a flow and stipulated GJ and TSA Pilots couldnít apply to Frontier outside the flow.

Voski
05-23-2019, 09:38 AM
The crux of the 5-6 year flow rate is ATTRITION!!!! The average attrition maybe 19 per month but that doesn't impact your flow date at a 1:1 ratio. The more senior you are the less attrition impacts your flow. Your calculations doesn't seem to factor in this HUGE impact on flow.

I second this. KodiakRS, I appreciate you breaking down the numbers like you did because I think that is one of the more accurate representations of how a 5-6 year flow could be feasible. However, as aforementioned by a few others, the distribution of those attriting from the top (non-flows) is much lower than those less than 2.5 years at the company. A 6 year flow is possible, but not probable.

I know people joke about us getting stapled to the AA seniority list or getting thrown AA seniority numbers, but after the protected pilots all leave, what guarantees do we really have that the flow agreement won't be amended to reduce flow #s or even canceled to keep Envoy staffed? That's why I'm keeping my apps updated at the LCCs + Big 6. As much as I'd like to work for American, I'm not waiting around on fickle promises. The real "tangible" benefit to flow is consistent movement in seniority, but I know I'm not planning to stick around until my # comes up.

highfarfast
05-23-2019, 09:40 AM
I’m not an airline pilot, I just read the forums. It wasn’t a joke. GoJet and TSA were both losing several a month to Frontier so they made a flow and stipulated GJ and TSA Pilots couldn’t apply to Frontier outside the flow.

I think the number of pilots that see Frontier as a career destination is a LOT smaller than the number of pilots that see American as a career destination. Yeah, Frontier is better than GoJet and TSA but they’re all still applying to the rest of LLCs and Legacies both from GoJet and TSA and from Frontier.

KodiakRS
05-23-2019, 10:37 AM
I second this. KodiakRS, I appreciate you breaking down the numbers like you did because I think that is one of the more accurate representations of how a 5-6 year flow could be feasible. However, as aforementioned by a few others, the distribution of those attriting from the top (non-flows) is much lower than those less than 2.5 years at the company. A 6 year flow is possible, but not probable.

Good point. I made a simple spreadsheet to do the calculation.

click here for screenshot (https://i.imgur.com/reanyqG.jpg)

Add 21 months to the flow time for the Protected/Unprotected pilots to flow. That number was calculated assuming non-flow attrition occurs outside of the Protected/Unprotected pilot group but senior to a current day newhire. This is probably somewhat realistic based on the fact that most non-flow attrition is from pilots who have gained enough experience to qualify for an OAL interview but are still far enough away from flow to wait. This leaves us with 3 flow situations:

19 Non-Flow attrition all senior to our new hire until flow: 50 months

19 Non-flow attrition until start of final flow group with an even reduction in senior attrition until flow date: 54+21=75 months

19 Non-flow attrition until start of final flow group with a gradual reduction in senior attrition to 0 over 2 years: 67+21= 88 months

So assuming no drastic changes in the industry flow for a new hire will be somewhere between 5 and 7 years. With hiring predicted to continue increasing across the industry as we get into the years of the highest mandatory retirements in early/mid 2020's there's a good chance that attrition will increase so I'd say 6 or so years is a good estimate. Having said that, we have a lot of pilots (mostly older RTP people with a full military retirement) who don't have the drive to move up like those of us in our first career and are content to sit here at Envoy despite our less than amazing pay. So who knows.

Of course, this is the airline industry and if you look at how things were at Eaglevoy 6 years ago you'll be reminded of just how much can change. Meger with another wholly owned, flow adjustment as part of contract negotiations, major pilot shortage at AA, economic downturn, fuel price spike, ect. could all drastically alter time to flow.

mketch11
05-23-2019, 11:09 AM
Attrition outside of flow and retirements for the vast majority of pilots after they arrive on property will be below them in seniority and ever decreasing until they flow. Those numbers should remain about the same. However, in my opinion, any attrition above said pilot will continue to decrease as flow times decrease. Using historical numbers for 12+ to 8 year pilots going to other airlines will not equal the number of 4 or 5 year pilots above you going to a major. They are less qualified and less likely to get a call, and also less likely to jump to an LCC which so little time left to flow. The company bases its projections on these historical numbers and that is enough justification for new hires who arenít 100% in touch with the way seniority lists work or are not in touch with the hiring climate. How many people come here spouting off about you should be at the major of your choice in half the time of the flow, yet that has been said for the last decade and check airman with 12 years and clean records are not getting a call? A new hire should come here seeing a 9 year flow on a spreadsheet and being surprised when he or she flows at 7.5 years. If you come here expecting 5.5 - 6, you will have no one to blame but yourself, because the company will not be held accountable.

ERAUAV8TR
05-23-2019, 11:42 AM
Website says leading pay and fastest flow. Both blatant lies

dera
05-23-2019, 12:00 PM
Website says leading pay and fastest flow. Both blatant lies

For someone hired today, using the "union math", Envoy has the fastest flow. We have PDT beat by a few months.

mketch11
05-23-2019, 01:21 PM
For someone hired today, using the "union math", Envoy has the fastest flow. We have PDT beat by a few months.

Envoyís ďactualĒ flow is just under 8.5 years so not exactly. If the recruiters want to say that Envoy has the industry leading first year pay due to sign on bonuses, or industry leading flow for pilots hires in 2016 then thatís fine with me. Have at it. The problem is when they cut out all the asterisks and say ďindustry leading pay and flow,Ē then they are being misleading to the average new hire that doesnít know that current flow is not industry leading, nor will their own flow if they started today. And after year one they will be getting close to the lowest pay in the industry.

Voski
05-23-2019, 01:32 PM
Envoyís ďactualĒ flow is just under 8.5 years so not exactly. If the recruiters want to say that Envoy has the industry leading first year pay due to sign on bonuses, or industry leading flow for pilots hires in 2016 then thatís fine with me. Have at it. The problem is when they cut out all the asterisks and say ďindustry leading pay and flow,Ē then they are being misleading to the average new hire that doesnít know that current flow is not industry leading, nor will their own flow if they started today. And after year one they will be getting close to the lowest pay in the industry.

I agree, but even saying "industry leading pay" is disingenuous given that every regional carrier has either a comparable bonus but with higher rates *or* same/similar rates but with a significantly larger bonus. Averaged out, we're trailing the majority of our competitors.

The pay discrepancy would would be slightly more tolerable if all three AAG wholly-owned carriers were paid equitably, but the discrepancy between PSA and ENY/PDT makes the pay issue asinine.

Cyio
05-23-2019, 02:05 PM
I agree, but even saying "industry leading pay" is disingenuous given that every regional carrier has either a comparable bonus but with higher rates *or* same/similar rates but with a significantly larger bonus. Averaged out, we're trailing the majority of our competitors.

The pay discrepancy would would be slightly more tolerable if all three AAG wholly-owned carriers were paid equitably, but the discrepancy between PSA and ENY/PDT makes the pay issue asinine.
Maybe an announcement is coming and we will have industry leading pay and flow..........

lol I couldn't help myself, sorry.

Cujo665
05-23-2019, 04:25 PM
So they are saying they canít improve pay and working conditions because they need those 19 fighting hard to get out to other airlines to keep their mystery math flow working.

HobGoblin
05-23-2019, 04:45 PM
So they are saying they canít improve pay and working conditions because they need those 19 fighting hard to get out to other airlines to keep their mystery math flow working.

Cujo, did you get that info from talkairline, or is it actually confirmed?

Ihavenoidea
05-23-2019, 06:23 PM
Even if the flow takes 7-9 years, wouldnít envoy still be the best choice for a single person under the age of 30 who can drive to ORD or DFW? I imagine thatís why even with lower pay envoy isnít struggling to fill classes because the ďlongĒ flow still has value.

imthecaptainnow
05-23-2019, 06:50 PM
Even if the flow takes 7-9 years, wouldnít envoy still be the best choice for a single person under the age of 30 who can drive to ORD or DFW? I imagine thatís why even with lower pay envoy isnít struggling to fill classes because the ďlongĒ flow still has value.

In 9 years there won't be any point to the flow. Most of the hiring will be done by then.

dera
05-23-2019, 06:52 PM
In 9 years there won't be any point to the flow. Most of the hiring will be done by then.

Wow. So no-one should start this career in 5 years time? Because in 9 years when they might be competitive for a major, "the hiring will be done" and there's no point to go.

Get real.

pitchattitude
05-23-2019, 06:59 PM
Wow. So no-one should start this career in 5 years time? Because in 9 years when they might be competitive for a major, "the hiring will be done" and there's no point to go.

Get real.
In nine years this industry likely will not look like it does now. A new hire today, heck, the new hires in the last three years, have no guarantee they will actually flow.

Sacrificing pay and QOL for a smoke and mirrors flow that MAY be there in six to nine years is not worth it.

dera
05-23-2019, 07:07 PM
In nine years this industry likely will not look like it does now. A new hire today, heck, the new hires in the last three years, have no guarantee they will actually flow.

Sacrificing pay and QOL for a smoke and mirrors flow that MAY be there in six to nine years is not worth it.

That could well be. But saying in 9 years flowing is not worth it is absolute horsesh*t.

Voski
05-23-2019, 07:16 PM
That could well be. But saying in 9 years flowing is not worth it is absolute horsesh*t.

Not sure if you're deranged, but nobody is saying that starting an airline career today is not worth it. What they are saying is that with flows projected at nearly a decade, the flow to AA is worthless at this point. The hiring is not bottomless; American won't forever be hiring at approximately 80 per month. The flow agreement formula for the majority of the unprotected pilots will turn that flow and turn it into an ebb.

dera
05-23-2019, 07:19 PM
Not sure if you're deranged, but nobody is saying that starting an airline career today is not worth it. What they are saying is that with flows projected at nearly a decade, the flow to AA is worthless at this point. The hiring is not bottomless; American won't forever be hiring at approximately 80 per month. The flow agreement formula for the majority of the unprotected pilots will turn that flow and turn it into an ebb.

No, that's exactly what he said.

In 9 years there won't be any point to the flow. Most of the hiring will be done by then.

So he's saying there is no point to flow in 9 years, because you will be behind a big hiring wave.
That's just bullcrap.

UnprotectdPilot
05-23-2019, 07:25 PM
No, that's exactly what he said.

In 9 years there won't be any point to the flow. Most of the hiring will be done by then.

So he's saying there is no point to flow in 9 years, because you will be behind a big hiring wave.
That's just bullcrap.

Where is the lie though? :rolleyes:
You are perfectly parroting what everyone is saying, yet you arrive at an entirely different conclusion. Yes, the hiring wave will be over. Yes, flows will slow down. No, it's not good for a pilot's career to get stuck at the very bottom of a seniority list when hiring goes stagnant... assuming the flow even pans out after 9 years. That's forever in the aviation industry.

Why then, dera, is it "just bullcrap?" In your opinion, why is the flow still valuable at 9 years for a newhire today?

dera
05-23-2019, 07:48 PM
Where is the lie though? :rolleyes:
You are perfectly parroting what everyone is saying, yet you arrive at an entirely different conclusion. Yes, the hiring wave will be over. Yes, flows will slow down. No, it's not good for a pilot's career to get stuck at the very bottom of a seniority list when hiring goes stagnant... assuming the flow even pans out after 9 years. That's forever in the aviation industry.

Why then, dera, is it "just bullcrap?" In your opinion, why is the flow still valuable at 9 years for a newhire today?

So you are saying a pilot career will be pretty bad for anyone starting in the industry in 5 years or so, because they will be at the bottom when hiring goes stagnant at the majors?

highfarfast
05-23-2019, 11:25 PM
If YOU are worth a damn, YOU will be hired somewhere good in less than 9 years OTS if you keep your apps out AND up to date. Thatís why flow is worthless at 9 years.

Smutter
05-23-2019, 11:29 PM
Wow. So no-one should start this career in 5 years time? Because in 9 years when they might be competitive for a major, "the hiring will be done" and there's no point to go.

Get real.

So, if you're stuck at a regional and the majors aren't hiring, would you not rather be at an airline that pays and is not at the bottom of pay and work rules

Cyio
05-24-2019, 02:13 AM
So, if you're stuck at a regional and the majors aren't hiring, would you not rather be at an airline that pays and is not at the bottom of pay and work rules

Youíre wasting your breath.

dera
05-24-2019, 07:29 AM
So, if you're stuck at a regional and the majors aren't hiring, would you not rather be at an airline that pays and is not at the bottom of pay and work rules

But hey, everyone will get hired OTS in the next 9 years. So this is not a problem, right?

If majors stop hiring, I would go back to charter/corporate. There's no point wasting your life at any regional. None of them are worth getting stuck at.

This thread is about the flow, not pay/work rules.
Our work rules are pretty much average. Definitely not the worst, but not the best either.

rld1k
05-24-2019, 09:21 AM
But hey, everyone will get hired OTS in the next 9 years. So this is not a problem, right?

If majors stop hiring, I would go back to charter/corporate. There's no point wasting your life at any regional. None of them are worth getting stuck at.

This thread is about the flow, not pay/work rules.
Our work rules are pretty much average. Definitely not the worst, but not the best either.

Living in base making over 130k like you can at some regionals is worth getting stuck at. Envoy has the ability to make it a place to work instead of a place to serve your sentence.

buddies8
05-24-2019, 09:28 AM
Paroles are hard to come by too.

pitchattitude
05-24-2019, 10:20 AM
But hey, everyone will get hired OTS in the next 9 years. So this is not a problem, right?

If majors stop hiring, I would go back to charter/corporate. There's no point wasting your life at any regional. None of them are worth getting stuck at.

This thread is about the flow, not pay/work rules.
Our work rules are pretty much average. Definitely not the worst, but not the best either.
That sounds like a great idea. The same one that everyone else is going to have if the majors quit hiring. And if there is any kind of downturn that causes majors to quit hiring, you can be pretty well assured the rest of the industry will be affected.

Cujo665
05-24-2019, 10:26 AM
Cujo, did you get that info from talkairline, or is it actually confirmed?

Nope, from here
https://www.airlinepilotforums.com/2824913-post14.html

The math works, and is the only way they get to 6 years. They need 19 a month average fighting to get out of ENY or the union 9 year projections become more accurate.

So, Iíd plan something in the middle. Plus AA will have a huge training backlog soon which will throttle flow for some time.

Cujo665
05-24-2019, 10:29 AM
If YOU are worth a damn, YOU will be hired somewhere good in less than 9 years OTS if you keep your apps out AND up to date. Thatís why flow is worthless at 9 years.

Yeah, because keeping your apps updated is working so well for everybody. Want out now? Become a check airman, or an asst chief pilot, or an safety volunteer. Do some charity work. Attend job fairs in person. Start networking your tail off and being the guy they see everywhere trying to get the job.
Otherwise, your updated app is just one of 18,000 in the pile.

dvtpilot
05-24-2019, 10:34 AM
Yeah, because keeping your apps updated is working so well for everybody. Want out now? Become a check airman, or an asst chief pilot, or an safety volunteer. Do some charity work. Attend job fairs in person. Start networking your tail off and being the guy they see everywhere trying to get the job.
Otherwise, your updated app is just one of 18,000 in the pile.

This is true, and maybe Iím a few shades jaded by now but I spend enough time away from my wife and kids. The fact that I have to donate more of my time off to a job fair is ludicrous. On top of all the volunteering and charity work you are supposed to be doing already.

Iím fully prepared to hear how thatís the way to get out and youíre not really trying etc. Iím just saying I donít have enough off days to give anymore.

Cyio
05-24-2019, 12:15 PM
This is true, and maybe Iím a few shades jaded by now but I spend enough time away from my wife and kids. The fact that I have to donate more of my time off to a job fair is ludicrous. On top of all the volunteering and charity work you are supposed to be doing already.

Iím fully prepared to hear how thatís the way to get out and youíre not really trying etc. Iím just saying I donít have enough off days to give anymore.

Yeah I agree, it is a ****ty reality. Toss in kids and their driving school, concerts, plays, the things your significant other need done not to mention the added cost of these fairs and most can't make it.

Its stupid really, but its the life we live.

HobGoblin
05-24-2019, 12:32 PM
Nope, from here
https://www.airlinepilotforums.com/2824913-post14.html

The math works, and is the only way they get to 6 years. They need 19 a month average fighting to get out of ENY or the union 9 year projections become more accurate.

So, Iíd plan something in the middle. Plus AA will have a huge training backlog soon which will throttle flow for some time.

I was asking about the not letting the pilots negotiate, but I just saw it was confirmed in a new blast.

highfarfast
05-24-2019, 03:19 PM
Yeah, because keeping your apps updated is working so well for everybody. Want out now? Become a check airman, or an asst chief pilot, or an safety volunteer. Do some charity work. Attend job fairs in person. Start networking your tail off and being the guy they see everywhere trying to get the job.
Otherwise, your updated app is just one of 18,000 in the pile.

I knew there would be someone offended by that via confusing what has been to what will be. Didn't think it would be you.

9 year flow is useless for someone hired TODAY.

UnprotectdPilot
05-25-2019, 06:54 AM
Bottom line: FUPM.

NoValueAviator
05-25-2019, 07:27 AM
Bottom line: FUPM.

Seriously, PSA has flow and $$$. We can debate about the flow all day but the market price of our excellent flying services has increased.

Letís make this an actual job worth rolling out of bed for occasionally, not the paid internship it is now.

Voski
05-25-2019, 09:34 AM
Seriously, PSA has flow and $$$. We can debate about the flow all day but the market price of our excellent flying services has increased.

Letís make this an actual job worth rolling out of bed for occasionally, not the paid internship it is now.

Couldn't say it better myself. The flow isn't going to keep me here, but a pay increase will have me write-off leaving for U/LCCs.

Cujo665
05-25-2019, 03:25 PM
I was asking about the not letting the pilots negotiate, but I just saw it was confirmed in a new blast.

Yes, true. They’ve done that before too. Both before and during the bankruptcy. It’s always staffing or other lame excuse to deny the SA.

Reality is the managers at Envoy think SA is a perk and they’re hurting the guys by taking their SA away. Truth is, it’s just paying them what they would have had anyway without the SA removal. Less in fact, since they can’t pick up an extra leg here or there like they could on the line. Plus it puts their name on the radar, and trust me... you are much better off at Envoy without management knowing your name for any reason. They are unscrupulous people and not to be trusted.

Cujo665
05-25-2019, 03:31 PM
I knew there would be someone offended by that via confusing what has been to what will be. Didn't think it would be you.

9 year flow is useless for someone hired TODAY.

Satire doesn’t always come through. I’d never take Envoy for flow in this market. My response was specifically for getting out now.... not for what a newbie should do.

Somebody wanting out now needs to do what I said. Some newbie job hunting today doesn’t need flow, they need pay and QOL.... and that ain’t at any of AAG regionals. There are reasons to pick an AA regional based on where the market is headed, but flow isn’t one of the considerations.

martyByrde
05-25-2019, 06:54 PM
Somebody wanting out now needs to do what I said. Some newbie job hunting today doesnít need flow, they need pay and QOL.... and that ainít at any of AAG regionals. There are reasons to pick an AA regional based on where the market is headed, but flow isnít one of the considerations.
True.AA could be the next Eastern in 5 years for all we know

ninerdriver
05-26-2019, 05:56 PM
True.AA could be the next Eastern in 5 years for all we know

I mean, Parker has pretty much run out of bigger airlines to merge into at this point...

Tyrion
05-28-2019, 08:59 AM
I mean, Parker has pretty much run out of bigger airlines to merge into at this point...

China Southern... Dougie is going international, and the Chinese government has deep pockets.

UncreativeUser
05-28-2019, 09:01 PM
China Southern... Dougie is going international, and the Chinese government has deep pockets.



Yeah ok


Sent from my iPhone using Tapatalk

dera
05-29-2019, 10:01 AM
The pilot recruiters just posted on Facebook that the flow projection "model specifics" are available through the recruitment team.

buddies8
05-29-2019, 10:23 AM
Right, dont post them, give us a call to find out. Kinda like the IRS telephone scams.

uavking
05-29-2019, 12:57 PM
The pilot recruiters just posted on Facebook that the flow projection "model specifics" are available through the recruitment team.

Oh, so we can get an all-expenses paid trip to the head shed for a talk after we send that info request? Sounds awesome. If recruiting had nothing to hide with their model/methodology, then why not make it public in the first place?

FUPM

Cyio
05-29-2019, 01:38 PM
Oh, so we can get an all-expenses paid trip to the head shed for a talk after we send that info request? Sounds awesome. If recruiting had nothing to hide with their model/methodology, then why not make it public in the first place?

FUPM
Exactly. If they wanted to be honest and up front they would just say the model and be done. Why the cloak and daggers?

UnprotectdPilot
06-08-2019, 09:26 AM
https://i.imgur.com/zW0uvTd.jpg

UnprotectdPilot
06-15-2019, 03:27 PM
Since the company negotiates in bad faith, what makes anyone think they're to be trusted about anything -- to include flow?

Cyio
06-15-2019, 03:30 PM
Since the company negotiates in bad faith, what makes anyone think they're to be trusted about anything -- to include flow?

Exactly. Just wait until the protected pilots are gone. Itís going to get ugly.

UnprotectdPilot
06-15-2019, 03:34 PM
Exactly. Just wait until the protected pilots are gone. Itís going to get ugly.

https://media.giphy.com/media/1rNWZu4QQqCUaq434T/giphy.gif



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