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View Full Version : Opportunity Cost - AA vs UAL?


Elevate
07-08-2019, 03:56 AM
Been a commuter with AA for 27 months while living in CLT. Strongly considering moving to Denver for family reasons. Not thrilled with AA culture/debt and would certainly prefer living in base (still canít hold CLT). Should I dust off my UAL app and forgo AA seniority accrued or suck it up and commute for the next 20 years? Thx all.


mainlineAF
07-08-2019, 04:04 AM
Culture doesnít pay bills. Cross that off your list.

The debt is there for a reason and its not bc they canít pay their bills. Itís a business, not personal finance. UA and DL will have significant capital expenditures coming up.

Iíd stay. Donít make an irrational, emotional decision.

Cdiddy1
07-08-2019, 04:42 AM
Go. Living in base has value. I donít think the culture will be all that different. Why stay here if youíre not happy.


OVBIII
07-08-2019, 04:43 AM
I agree with mainline, but Iíll add that living in base is key. I canít read the tea leaves, but Iíd say you are pretty damn close to holding CLT.
That said, if Denver is where you need to be and UALs domicile is quick to hold, it doesnít hurt to explore that option. Just try to do some homework on how many people would be above you trying to get to DEN

GuardPolice
07-08-2019, 04:45 AM
Culture doesnít pay bills. Cross that off your list.

The debt is there for a reason and its not bc they canít pay their bills. Itís a business, not personal finance. UA and DL will have significant capital expenditures coming up.

Iíd stay. Donít make an irrational, emotional decision.


No one is arguing this is like personal finance. When the economy tanks again, that debt will be a significant noose around AAís neck as revenues and profit fall. In bad economies airlines tend to use to debt to survive. Since AA may begin a recession with high debt loads that could be catastrophic for them.

DL, for one, is already in the middle of their fleet transformation and you donít see the debt racking up at a significant rate.

Thatís said, in the grand scheme of things, I think large piles of debt should be considered but not the number one reason for someone to bail from or avoid AA. I think, however, the OP is wise to factor it into his decision.


GP

chrisreedrules
07-08-2019, 04:48 AM
Been a commuter with AA for 27 months while living in CLT. Strongly considering moving to Denver for family reasons. Not thrilled with AA culture/debt and would certainly prefer living in base (still canít hold CLT). Should I dust off my UAL app and forgo AA seniority accrued or suck it up and commute for the next 20 years? Thx all.

Youíre insane.

thrust
07-08-2019, 04:52 AM
How long does it to take to get to the Denver domicile as a UAL new hire? I thought it was several years... seems like Denver is UALs equivalent to Charlotte, super senior and relatively stagnant. I’m sure someone from UAL could give you specifics. By the time you applied to UAL, got an interview, got hired, and started class... maybe add a year from now. So you’d give up 39 months at AA (holding CLT by then?) to start over, take a massive pay/seniority cut (you’re on the very early end of a massive wave at AA) and spend however long commuting from Denver to SFO/EWR? Oh, and you can’t reserve the jumpseat at UAL, so you’re competing with a ton of senior UAL pilots for a ride, and they can bump you off at that last minute if they choose. F that. Why not just move to Denver, stay with AA, and reserve a jumpseat to commute to LAX/PHX/DFW/wherever since you’ll be commuting anyway? Met a guy that commutes to DFW from ASE. Sounds miserable to me, but he loves it.

Perhaps consider SWA if you’re that set on Denver. A buddy of mine got there within a few months of finishing Indoc. You will certainly have missed the early part of the hiring wave at SWA, but it’s a great company to work for (supposedly) and has a great culture, whatever that means (just ask them), and you’ll never have to do another long training course after you get trained on the 737.

hiwas
07-08-2019, 06:09 AM
Isnít it worth trying to work somewhere that you could be based where you want to live?

Good luck

N6279P
07-08-2019, 06:28 AM
Culture doesnít pay bills. Cross that off your list.

The debt is there for a reason and its not bc they canít pay their bills. Itís a business, not personal finance. UA and DL will have significant capital expenditures coming up.

Iíd stay. Donít make an irrational, emotional decision.

What are you talking about? UA never had an entire fleet of planes that needed replacement like American did.

mainlineAF
07-08-2019, 06:34 AM
What are you talking about? UA never had an entire fleet of planes that needed replacement like American did.



Wut? AA has replaced a much higher percentage of their fleet in recent years compared to UA/DL. That is the main reason for the debt load.

flydc
07-08-2019, 07:02 AM
You should map out your seniority progression at AA vs UA. Take a look at your relative seniority every 5-10yrs. Taking into account the 3yr difference in hire date, I suspect your estimated career earnings will be significantly higher at AA.

AAL24
07-08-2019, 07:11 AM
Seniority and earnings are not necessarily correlated. For example many many FOs at DAL make more than the majority of Captains at AA. Our biggest failing as a pilot group has been comparing our hourly rates and assuming we are in the same ballpark as UAL DAL SWA FEDEX etc. Even JetBlue pilots have the option of dropping their lines and picking up at 200%.

Hopefully this all changes with the new contract. But I doubt it. Havenít seen a single survey question cover double dipping, trip buys for OE, or 200% premium.

viper548
07-08-2019, 07:41 AM
What is your tolerance for commuting? Some don't mind at all, some loathe it. Having done both throughout my career I'd rather switch companies and not commute. The drop in pay from starting over will be offset by the opportunities available living in base (Premium, OG, dropping trips for easy MU trips).
I moved to base last year. I had a pretty easy commute, 10 flights a day, 5 on us, usually Airbus. Loads were good, sat in the jumpseat less than 5 times a year. I spent 500 hours year getting to and from work. Seniority doesn't seem as important living in base. It doesn't really matter if my trips are commutable, doesn't matter if we get back late. I don't have to worry about weather the day my trip starts.
Reserve isn't so bad living in base.

thrust
07-08-2019, 08:24 AM
For example many many FOs at DAL make more than the majority of Captains at AA.

Any data to back up this claim?

FWIW, I agree with most of what you said.

full of luv
07-08-2019, 08:43 AM
Wut? AA has replaced a much higher percentage of their fleet in recent years compared to UA/DL. That is the main reason for the debt load.

That, and after the merger, AA never seemed to make much of an effort to pay down debt.

It may be a competitive advantage..... if there is a huge downturn, AA will be the first into BK court to amend it's debt and rework it's contracts.

mainlineAF
07-08-2019, 09:25 AM
That, and after the merger, AA never seemed to make much of an effort to pay down debt.



It may be a competitive advantage..... if there is a huge downturn, AA will be the first into BK court to amend it's debt and rework it's contracts.



Theyíre paying off and have been paying off high interest debt. The low interest debt is what theyíre not paying off. Why would they when they can make more money other places?

SaturnV
07-08-2019, 09:29 AM
Seniority and earnings are not necessarily correlated. For example many many FOs at DAL make more than the majority of Captains at AA. Our biggest failing as a pilot group has been comparing our hourly rates and assuming we are in the same ballpark as UAL DAL SWA FEDEX etc. Even JetBlue pilots have the option of dropping their lines and picking up at 200%.

Hopefully this all changes with the new contract. But I doubt it. Havenít seen a single survey question cover double dipping, trip buys for OE, or 200% premium.

Just this week JetBlue has been offering lots and lots of premium pay, they definitely donít have a problem opening their wallets to recover the operation when IROPs hit.

That being said, there might be a few things that JetBlue has that AA might not of itís true your work rules are still largely from a BK contract. JetBlueís contract is about 11 months old and Amendable in 2 years in 2021. After next year, 12 year A320 Captain at JetBlue will pay within $3/hr of 12 year AA A320 Captain. So hopefully not only will you guys knock it out of the park with your new contract with work rules but also move the goal post way down field for A320 rates so we will have something awesome to shoot for in 2021.

nAAtive
07-08-2019, 10:02 AM
Theyíre paying off and have been paying off high interest debt. The low interest debt is what theyíre not paying off. Why would they when they can make more money other places?

You sound like Doug at a crew news.

DarinFred
07-08-2019, 10:10 AM
Mainline (cough Doug cough), do you have numbers on how much weíve borrowed for new airplanes vs how much weíve borrowed to buy back stock?

ag386
07-08-2019, 11:06 AM
Theyíre paying off and have been paying off high interest debt. The low interest debt is what theyíre not paying off. Why would they when they can make more money other places?

You sound like an Envoy new hire.

Al Czervik
07-08-2019, 01:05 PM
Seniority and earnings are not necessarily correlated. For example many many FOs at DAL make more than the majority of Captains at AA. Our biggest failing as a pilot group has been comparing our hourly rates and assuming we are in the same ballpark as UAL DAL SWA FEDEX etc. Even JetBlue pilots have the option of dropping their lines and picking up at 200%.

Hopefully this all changes with the new contract. But I doubt it. Havenít seen a single survey question cover double dipping, trip buys for OE, or 200% premium.

The smart FOís at AA are making more than AA CAís.

Name User
07-08-2019, 01:11 PM
Mainline (cough Doug cough), do you have numbers on how much weíve borrowed for new airplanes vs how much weíve borrowed to buy back stock?

Total capex since the merger has been around $25b IIRC and total stock purchased has been $12b.

Assuming a rate of around 5%, that's around $50m a month in interest charges.

Big Perm
07-08-2019, 01:21 PM
Denver at united is attainable with just six months seniority as long as you go for the 737/320. If you chase the 756 for some reason it would be two or three years minimum.

Al Czervik
07-08-2019, 01:23 PM
Denver at united is attainable with just six months seniority as long as you go for the 737/320. If you chase the 756 for some reason it would be two or three years minimum.

Dig the screen name.

Arado 234
07-08-2019, 01:34 PM
The smart FOís at AA are making more than AA CAís.

Group IV I suppose.

Actually, there are quite a few G4 captains that went back to G2 Captains at least in MIA. With summer storms (Premium) etc they claim to make more.

AAfng
07-08-2019, 01:46 PM
Leave. I was ual for a short stint and there is a lot of better things in their contract. Less debt, more wb, making a great turnaround, denver base, forgetaboutit

AAL24
07-08-2019, 01:57 PM
The smart FOís at AA are making more than AA CAís.

The IMAX game works when you are senior on certain aircraft in certain bases. Not to mention you have to be willing to work hard for 10 months. It doesnít compare to the flexibility and payouts at Delta and United.

Regionalsuck
07-08-2019, 02:06 PM
After a decade of miserable commutes. Never again. Living in base is far more valuable for your sanity, time with family and massively improved scheduling flexibility.

FlyPurdue
07-08-2019, 02:21 PM
Total capex since the merger has been around $25b IIRC and total stock purchased has been $12b.

Assuming a rate of around 5%, that's around $50m a month in interest charges.

AA has $7B+ in liquidity, that money is making considerably more than 5%.

What should concern all of us is the same thing that concerns all the Wall Street analysts...not debt but revenue.

In 2018 - Delta made 107% of AA's revenue - while only flying about 90% of the ASMs. That is what is driving the majority of the gap between AA and the industry.

Tini
07-08-2019, 02:32 PM
Denver at united is attainable with just six months seniority as long as you go for the 737/320. If you chase the 756 for some reason it would be two or three years minimum.

Not quite. I have been with UAL for 8 months and can't quite hold Denver yet. Looks good for this fall so probably right at a year.

TransWorld
07-08-2019, 02:33 PM
Wut? AA has replaced a much higher percentage of their fleet in recent years compared to UA/DL. That is the main reason for the debt load.

Do you (everyone, not specifically mainlineAF) think AA has a strong enough balance sheet to survive the next few years (I think they do)?

Over the next dozen years, will UA and especially DL have to replace their much older fleets (I think so)?

If so, all the majors will have lots of debt due to renewed fleets. At that point, having paid down part of their debt from earlier fleet renewal, AA will have the strongest balance sheet.

You are welcome to your opinion. But that is mine.

PRS Guitars
07-08-2019, 03:18 PM
Denver and Colorado are going in a bad direction. Not to get political, but it is solidly controlled by one party now and they went on a rampage of bad legislation last spring. Denver has legalized psychedelic mushrooms and is actively trying to legalize heroin via shoot up clinics. The cost of living is rising fast and real estate is getting pretty expensive. Our one saving grace is our Taxpayer Bill of Rights (TABOR) which requires a vote of the people to raise taxes, unfortunately, they are doing everything they can to repeal it. They tried (but failed, thank god) to legalize camping in public spaces...they will keep trying.

Check out https://completecolorado.com/ to get up to speed before moving here.

If you are a progressive, then Denver is for you, if not, just be careful about moving here. Personally, Iíd like to leave once my youngest graduates from high school.

I also think being Denver based at UAL, is similar to being CLT based at AA...slow movement.

AFTrainerGuy
07-08-2019, 03:41 PM
Been a commuter with AA for 27 months while living in CLT. Strongly considering moving to Denver for family reasons. Not thrilled with AA culture/debt and would certainly prefer living in base (still canít hold CLT). Should I dust off my UAL app and forgo AA seniority accrued or suck it up and commute for the next 20 years? Thx all.

Working from the baseline that you donít wanna commute.....

Do you like living in CLT? If tomorrow you got awarded CLT, would you still want to move to Denver? If so, apply to UAL/SW and go if it will make you and your family happier. If/when they call, decide then. If you like CLT, then Iíd stay at AA. You will get in. The dam showed a tiny leak on the last bid and itís just a matter of time.

Personally, I put no faith in future projections 20 years out. Maybe they happen, maybe they donít. Anyone who tells you otherwise is lying or guessing. Do what will make you happiest and donít sweat the future (seniority, debt, stock buybacks, automation, etc... you canít control it anyway).

mainlineAF
07-08-2019, 03:52 PM
Do you (everyone, not specifically mainlineAF) think AA has a strong enough balance sheet to survive the next few years (I think they do)?

Over the next dozen years, will UA and especially DL have to replace their much older fleets (I think so)?

If so, all the majors will have lots of debt due to renewed fleets. At that point, having paid down part of their debt from earlier fleet renewal, AA will have the strongest balance sheet.

You are welcome to your opinion. But that is mine.



That is literally the point i was making.

PRS Guitars
07-08-2019, 03:55 PM
After a decade of miserable commutes. Never again. Living in base is far more valuable for your sanity, time with family and massively improved scheduling flexibility.

He does live in an AA base, just canít hold it yet. He is on the verge of holding it though.

Elevate
07-08-2019, 04:11 PM
Great comments all. Appreciate the inputs. Iíll probably float the app again and make a decision if it triggers. We miss Colorado (despite Blue wave) and are very meh about CLT. Itís the commuting 500+ hours/month for 20 years that has me in consternation. And a slight inner turmoil lingers for pulling my UAL app two years back. Will probably split the difference and stay AA CLT for half the time and commute from Colorado for the last decade. Maybe....

Name User
07-08-2019, 05:19 PM
AA has $7B+ in liquidity, that money is making considerably more than 5%.

What should concern all of us is the same thing that concerns all the Wall Street analysts...not debt but revenue.

In 2018 - Delta made 107% of AA's revenue - while only flying about 90% of the ASMs. That is what is driving the majority of the gap between AA and the industry.

AA has $4b in investments and $300m in cash.

On that $4.3b they earned $33m in interest last quarter. That is an annualized 3.0%.

So, no, they are not making "considerably more" (your words) than 5% off their "liquidity".

Saying AA has $7b in "liquidity" includes $3b credit available to them but not drawn. That is essentially a credit card with $3b cash advance on it.

Their interest payout is around $1b a year, and runs around 5.4%.

You can learn all of this by reading our quarterly and annual reports.

https://americanairlines.gcs-web.com/node/37356/html

FlyPurdue
07-08-2019, 05:42 PM
AA has $4b in investments and $300m in cash.

On that $4.3b they earned $33m in interest last quarter. That is an annualized 3.0%.

So, no, they are not making "considerably more" (your words) than 5% off their "liquidity".

Saying AA has $7b in "liquidity" includes $3b credit available to them but not drawn. That is essentially a credit card with $3b cash advance on it.

Their interest payout is around $1b a year, and runs around 5.4%.

You can learn all of this by reading our quarterly and annual reports.

https://americanairlines.gcs-web.com/node/37356/html

I donít mean that they will be making more than 5% in annual interest, I'm simply saying that >5% is a hurdle rate for any capital expenditure.

Thanks for pointing me to the 10-q, although I spent 5 years in planning at AA; revenue management and fleet planning. Treasury/Capital Planning, was not my area of expertise. Doug reiterates on every investor call that AA has a liquidity of $7B, and I took that at face value - I was wrong.

full of luv
07-08-2019, 05:44 PM
Do you (everyone, not specifically mainlineAF) think AA has a strong enough balance sheet to survive the next few years (I think they do)?

Over the next dozen years, will UA and especially DL have to replace their much older fleets (I think so)?

If so, all the majors will have lots of debt due to renewed fleets. At that point, having paid down part of their debt from earlier fleet renewal, AA will have the strongest balance sheet.

You are welcome to your opinion. But that is mine.

Plus Doug has stated publicly that AA will never lose money again.... so you have that going for ya, which is nice!

PRS Guitars
07-08-2019, 06:33 PM
Great comments all. Appreciate the inputs. Iíll probably float the app again and make a decision if it triggers. We miss Colorado (despite Blue wave) and are very meh about CLT. Itís the commuting 500+ hours/month for 20 years that has me in consternation. And a slight inner turmoil lingers for pulling my UAL app two years back. Will probably split the difference and stay AA CLT for half the time and commute from Colorado for the last decade. Maybe....

Itís more than the blue wave, even my liberal friends and family want to move. Itís just changing rapidly. You can have great life in CLT, and will probably hold it before you could Interview, get a CJO, get a class date, then hold DEN at UAL. I have the opposite problem of you, we thought about moving to CLT when I got hired, and moved home to Colorado instead. Now the kids are well established and we are tied in. I regret it every day.

You wonít commute from CLT for 20 years...thatís not mathematically possible, unless they close the base or shrink it rapidly. The problem is, itís still being affected by the integration. LAA guys want it and new hires that were on the LAA side senior to you want it, and they seem to have shrunk the flying a bit. It wonít be forever though.

Name User
07-08-2019, 09:00 PM
I donít mean that they will be making more than 5% in annual interest, I'm simply saying that >5% is a hurdle rate for any capital expenditure.

Thanks for pointing me to the 10-q, although I spent 5 years in planning at AA; revenue management and fleet planning. Treasury/Capital Planning, was not my area of expertise. Doug reiterates on every investor call that AA has a liquidity of $7B, and I took that at face value - I was wrong.

Our margin is 3%, meaning we are borrowing at 5%+ to earn 3%.

That would be like taking out a 5% mortgage while having the cash in the bank earning 3%, and leveraging up to the hilt.

It's the opposite of using OPM and no one ever got rich doing it that way.

If you could borrow at 5% but earn 10%+ using that money, you'd borrow as much as you could, right?

The issue with AA right now (and probably forever) is there is limited amounts we can grow our core business. AA so far has not taken on risk to grow their businesses outside of a standard 2%-3% per year. They are laser focused on just transporting passengers.

As a stockholder what you want to see is a company that can continue growing...it's what you pay the leadership for and why you own stock. AA is not exciting and has little to no growth in it, hence the low multiple on the stock.

iHateAMR
07-08-2019, 11:41 PM
...
As a stockholder what you want to see is a company that can continue growing...it's what you pay the leadership for and why you own stock. AA is not exciting and has little to no growth in it, hence the low multiple on the stock.

As a passenger, I want a reliable product that has at least some amenities. AA isnít delivering on that either with arbitrarily cancelled flights, random delays, no power ports on some main cabin extra flights, FAs hoarding bin space above the bulkhead.

I have and will continue to pay cash out of my pocket not to ride on deadheads scheduled on AA anymore, because I want to get there on time and be able to at least charge a phone or laptop. Iím not the only one either.

sailingfun
07-09-2019, 03:32 AM
Wut? AA has replaced a much higher percentage of their fleet in recent years compared to UA/DL. That is the main reason for the debt load.

Thatís incorrect. Take a good look at the annual reports. Delta by the way is taking 80 new aircraft a year without any significant increase in debt.

TransWorld
07-09-2019, 04:16 AM
Thatís incorrect. Take a good look at the annual reports. Delta by the way is taking 80 new aircraft a year without any significant increase in debt.

Do you agree that Delta has a significantly older fleet than American?

And with retirement of the Mad Dog (as well as some other older aircraft in the next few years), the American fleet will become younger on average (or at least hold its own as time marches on)?

mainlineAF
07-09-2019, 06:24 AM
Do you agree that Delta has a significantly older fleet than American?



And with retirement of the Mad Dog (as well as some other older aircraft in the next few years), the American fleet will become younger on average (or at least hold its own as time marches on)?



American already has the youngest fleet of the 3 legacies.

Name User
07-09-2019, 06:40 AM
Thatís incorrect. Take a good look at the annual reports. Delta by the way is taking 80 new aircraft a year without any significant increase in debt.

AA had about 500 aircraft ordered, the bulk delivered in three years. There was a time we were getting a new airplane a day.

With a fleet of 1000, you need to replace 50 a year anyway due to reaching 20 years of service.

Name User
07-09-2019, 06:42 AM
Do you agree that Delta has a significantly older fleet than American?

And with retirement of the Mad Dog (as well as some other older aircraft in the next few years), the American fleet will become younger on average (or at least hold its own as time marches on)?

That's nice except Delta spends hundreds of millions less a year on maintenance and we continue to burn more gas YOY. So far, we haven't seen a benefit from spending all that capital. Plus Delta has almost zero maintenance cancels.

Name User
07-09-2019, 06:43 AM
As a passenger, I want a reliable product that has at least some amenities. AA isnít delivering on that either with arbitrarily cancelled flights, random delays, no power ports on some main cabin extra flights, FAs hoarding bin space above the bulkhead.

I have and will continue to pay cash out of my pocket not to ride on deadheads scheduled on AA anymore, because I want to get there on time and be able to at least charge a phone or laptop. Iím not the only one either.

You seriously buy tickets on other carriers vs DHing? Wow. You're something special.

zondaracer
07-09-2019, 09:05 AM
You seriously buy tickets on other carriers vs DHing? Wow. You're something special.

Heís at purple. He gets a choice in deadheads and then comes on here to comment.

Al Czervik
07-09-2019, 09:11 AM
At the end of this guy’s career AA, UAL or DL could be out of business. I’d go for seniority.

Qotsaautopilot
07-09-2019, 07:24 PM
Do whatever you can to live in a base you like. So much time wasted commuting. Not to mention added stress and lots of lost earning potential. At spirit reserve in base is a dream. My beards have to be clippers down before I can shave them.

When I commuted my entire life and bidding revolves around it. Last thing I ever wanted to do was work extra. Now I’m home so much grabbing a 200% trip when the opportunity arises (March-July usually) it just seems silly not to take it.

Slowmover
07-10-2019, 02:59 PM
Whatever decision you make, make it and donít look back. Youíll never be happy if you constantly reevaluate big decisions that you canít change.

flyinawa
07-10-2019, 04:33 PM
But donít chase a base; they ebb and flow and come and go. If you have a full support system there (family, etc), that may be more important than professional opportunity, but.... I bought a house in PHX on day three of ground school almost 16 years ago. Now Iím sort of stuck in one of the most senior narrow body bases that also completely lacks widebody flying. Iím only 50% on the FO seniority list here while in PHL Iím 65% on the Captainís list. Commuting, here I come. :(

full of luv
07-10-2019, 05:08 PM
But donít chase a base; they ebb and flow and come and go. If you have a full support system there (family, etc), that may be more important than professional opportunity, but.... I bought a house in PHX on day three of ground school almost 16 years ago. Now Iím sort of stuck in one of the most senior narrow body bases that also completely lacks widebody flying. Iím only 50% on the FO seniority list here while in PHL Iím 65% on the Captainís list. Commuting, here I come. :(

I have met guys at Delta that commute to NYC and LAX from ATL for the "improved" seniority..... crazy in my book, but to each his own!

Thedude
07-10-2019, 05:47 PM
I have met guys at Delta that commute to NYC and LAX from ATL for the "improved" seniority..... crazy in my book, but to each his own!

When you are junior on a NB or commute for less than 2 hrs and be senior on a WB.....here I come too.

griff312
07-10-2019, 09:23 PM
Off base question, but what's the average time to hold a line as a PHL A320 FO?

sailingfun
07-11-2019, 07:28 AM
AA had about 500 aircraft ordered, the bulk delivered in three years. There was a time we were getting a new airplane a day.

With a fleet of 1000, you need to replace 50 a year anyway due to reaching 20 years of service.

You were getting 365 new aircraft a year? When was that?

sailingfun
07-11-2019, 07:30 AM
Do you agree that Delta has a significantly older fleet than American?

And with retirement of the Mad Dog (as well as some other older aircraft in the next few years), the American fleet will become younger on average (or at least hold its own as time marches on)?

That is currently true. Deltaís fleet age is however dropping rapidly without any debt increase. By 2023 it should match Americans.

Waggy122
07-11-2019, 07:35 AM
You were getting 365 new aircraft a year? When was that?

He said there was a ďtimeĒ they were getting a new airplane a day. He never said a new airplane a day ďfor a yearĒ....

TransWorld
07-11-2019, 02:05 PM
He said there was a ďtimeĒ they were getting a new airplane a day. He never said a new airplane a day ďfor a yearĒ....

It was one a day, for a ďtimeĒ. For how long? A week? A month?

If it was one a day, 365 years a year, in two and one half years every plane would have been replaced. That never happened.

wrxpilot
07-11-2019, 02:38 PM
Itís more than the blue wave, even my liberal friends and family want to move. Itís just changing rapidly. You can have great life in CLT, and will probably hold it before you could Interview, get a CJO, get a class date, then hold DEN at UAL. I have the opposite problem of you, we thought about moving to CLT when I got hired, and moved home to Colorado instead. Now the kids are well established and we are tied in. I regret it every day.


Yep. I grew up in Colorado, and had a well established life there. Friends, family, nice house in the foothills, etc. I even had an offer from United, where I wanted to work my entire life.

But I have become absolutely disgusted with the direction Colorado and the Front Range in particular are going. Itís extremely busy, very expensive, and I do not like the type of people moving there now. Not only do I disagree with many of them politically, but they also have no idea how to act in the mountains. Entitled, trashing trails, very selfish, etc. CO is no longer the place I grew up in and loved.

I ended up going to purple, and can basically live anywhere now. My wife and I sold our house and moved far, far away from CO with zero regrets.

Name User
07-11-2019, 03:09 PM
It was one a day, for a ďtimeĒ. For how long? A week? A month?

If it was one a day, 365 years a year, in two and one half years every plane would have been replaced. That never happened.

We got a **** ton of aircraft in a short amount of time. IIRC it was the largest single commercial order ever.

We needed them. We had almost 400(!) S80's that needed replacing. And due to the economy we were able to finance them at insanely low rates (for an airline).

TransWorld
07-11-2019, 03:34 PM
We got a **** ton of aircraft in a short amount of time. IIRC it was the largest single commercial order ever.

We needed them. We had almost 400(!) S80's that needed replacing. And due to the economy we were able to finance them at insanely low rates (for an airline).

I remember it well.

RhinoBallAuto
07-11-2019, 05:02 PM
DEN-LAX is probably a pretty easy commute....AA, UW, SW, Frontier.

You'd have awesome seniority on the NBs, and later on have the WB option if you wanted.

I think your plan of going live w UA app and seeing what nibbles you get is a good way to approach it.

3006hunter
07-11-2019, 06:27 PM
Wrx,

Where did you move of you dont mind me asking?

TRZ06
07-11-2019, 11:24 PM
The next twenty years is a long time and a lot of commuting. Airline stability aside I say keep it simple...sacrifice the 27 months now and live where you will be the most content. And I whole heartedly agree with your assessment of commuting, CLT, and AA. Ive done the first part, lived in the second part, and endured nearly four decades in the last part with four years to go. Wish I could be more optimistic but I am far from the only old timer AA native that thinks this way FWIW.

Name User
07-12-2019, 06:09 AM
That is currently true. Delta’s fleet age is however dropping rapidly without any debt increase. By 2023 it should match Americans.

On the narrowbody side DAL has a lower age than United but is averaging over four years older than AA, and that is before we get rid of our 80's, which are over 20 years old.

United's narrowbody fleet is almost 16 years old (average). They have over 200 small narrowbodies in the 130-150 seat range that are 20 years old. Maybe they will upgauge to the MAX. That would actually be smart because it would then make them an all 737 narrowbody fleet (plus some 757's).

AA also has 48 320's that are closing in on 20 years old. That is typically when they have chosen to replace aircraft. So not sure what to expect...will they hold on to those aircraft longer, will they replace with up-gauged 321neos, or replace with 737-8MAX's?

My hunch says replace with the MAX, assuming it actually gets airborne again, due to the extremely long wait for the NEO and the premium the Airbus product is getting.

The more concerning thing is for the first time, DAL has carried more domestic passengers than AA has (1Q 2019).

FlyyGuyy
07-12-2019, 06:16 AM
On the narrowbody side DAL has a lower age than United but is averaging over four years older than AA, and that is before we get rid of our 80's, which are over 20 years old.

United's narrowbody fleet is almost 16 years old (average). They have over 200 small narrowbodies in the 130-150 seat range that are 20 years old. Maybe they will upgauge to the MAX. That would actually be smart because it would then make them an all 737 narrowbody fleet (plus some 757's).

AA also has 48 320's that are closing in on 20 years old. That is typically when they have chosen to replace aircraft. So not sure what to expect...will they hold on to those aircraft longer, will they replace with up-gauged 321neos, or replace with 737-8MAX's?

My hunch says replace with the MAX, assuming it actually gets airborne again, due to the extremely long wait for the NEO and the premium the Airbus product is getting.

The more concerning thing is for the first time, DAL has carried more domestic passengers than AA has (1Q 2019).

United has a large number of 32x. Fyi

Name User
07-12-2019, 06:41 AM
United has a large number of 32x. Fyi

Yes...they have

~70 319's
~100 320's
~40 737-700's

The 319's are the youngest average age at 18. The others are over 20.

That being said they had acquired a dozen or so used 319's lately. So either they plan on bringing more Airbus in or it was just to add additional capacity while they determine what to do. But a large MAX order would simplify their fleet significantly.

TransWorld
07-12-2019, 08:18 AM
AA also has 48 320's that are closing in on 20 years old. That is typically when they have chosen to replace aircraft. So not sure what to expect...will they hold on to those aircraft longer, will they replace with up-gauged 321neos, or replace with 737-8MAX's?

My hunch says replace with the MAX, assuming it actually gets airborne again, due to the extremely long wait for the NEO and the premium the Airbus product is getting.

My understanding is all the AA Mad Dogs get parked right after this Labor Day. All of the A320s, B757, and the older B767 get parked as they are replaced over the next few years. These are/will be about 20+ years old*. The reality is this will reduce the average age of the AA fleet, even as Delta is renewing their fleet.


*The current average age of these fleets are:
20.6 years MD-80
18.0 years A320
19.5 years B757
20.1 years B767

This is about 12% of the fleet, which averages, with them 10.8 years.

So the average age of the fleet will reduce a couple of years.


Separately, my crystal ball sees over half (~80) of the A319s are about 20 years old. The Airbus lines are mostly dedicated to the A321s. Few low hour used A319s will be available for purchase. So my crystal ball says, contrary to AA management statements, AA will buy some A220s. Not much of any other choice of current production.

full of luv
07-12-2019, 10:12 AM
My understanding is all the AA Mad Dogs get parked right after this Labor Day. All of the A320s, B757, and the older B767 get parked as they are replaced over the next few years. These are/will be about 20+ years old*. The reality is this will reduce the average age of the AA fleet, even as Delta is renewing their fleet.


*The current average age of these fleets are:
20.6 years MD-80
18.0 years A320
19.5 years B757
20.1 years B767

This is about 12% of the fleet, which averages, with them 10.8 years.

So the average age of the fleet will reduce a couple of years.


Separately, my crystal ball sees over half (~80) of the A319s are about 20 years old. The Airbus lines are mostly dedicated to the A321s. Few low hour used A319s will be available for purchase. So my crystal ball says, contrary to AA management statements, AA will buy some A220s. Not much of any other choice of current production.

Wait....my GF/wife is younger than yours....

Funny how AA has a lot of younger planes, but many are missing IFE!

mainlineAF
07-12-2019, 11:10 AM
Wait....my GF/wife is younger than yours....



Funny how AA has a lot of younger planes, but many are missing IFE!



I didnít see any bragging in his post he was just stating his opinion.

I was on a DL airplane the other day. Maybe 10 people were using the IFE when i used the lav. Pretty much all you need now in the domestic market is satellite WiFi and power outlets.

Name User
07-12-2019, 11:15 AM
Yes I have wondered what they will do about the 319 replacement as well. They do have some new ones. So it seems likely they will continue to operate it. But like you said the ability to acquire more/replacements is not there.

Personally I despise the 737 from a pax perspective. Even in February they are hot in the back. The seat bracing forces you to sit sideways and there is little in the way of under seat storage.

Vasu the great will have to start making difficult choices soon however. By years end we will be down ~65 airplanes between the 80's going away and undelivered/grounded MAX's. Schedules will be cut and staffing forecasts reduced. Unfortunately Delta is taking on aircraft and adding to their route network as us, United, and SWA have to pare back.

ACEssXfer
07-12-2019, 11:25 AM
Yes I have wondered what they will do about the 319 replacement as well. They do have some new ones. So it seems likely they will continue to operate it. But like you said the ability to acquire more/replacements is not there.

Personally I despise the 737 from a pax perspective. Even in February they are hot in the back. The seat bracing forces you to sit sideways and there is little in the way of under seat storage.

Vasu the great will have to start making difficult choices soon however. By years end we will be down ~65 airplanes between the 80's going away and undelivered/grounded MAX's. Schedules will be cut and staffing forecasts reduced. Unfortunately Delta is taking on aircraft and adding to their route network as us, United, and SWA have to pare back.

And yet all my 737 trips are red.......

PRS Guitars
07-12-2019, 11:40 AM
And yet all my 737 trips are red.......

If it makes you feel better, all of my Airbus trips are ďredderĒ.

GuardPolice
07-12-2019, 11:50 AM
I didnít see any bragging in his post he was just stating his opinion.

I was on a DL airplane the other day. Maybe 10 people were using the IFE when i used the lav. Pretty much all you need now in the domestic market is satellite WiFi and power outlets.


One DL flight speaks for the entire airline?

Pax love IFE. Especially higher paying business types that can have something playing on the IFE screen while working on another device.


GP

mainlineAF
07-12-2019, 01:28 PM
One DL flight speaks for the entire airline?

Pax love IFE. Especially higher paying business types that can have something playing on the IFE screen while working on another device.


GP



How do you know thatís what ďhigher paying business typesĒ want?

GuardPolice
07-12-2019, 04:03 PM
Surveys. Especially those we as pilots can see from those customers. Not to mention Delta is not shy of sharing that fact publicly.


GP

Windcheck44
07-12-2019, 05:23 PM
Separately, my crystal ball sees over half (~80) of the A319s are about 20 years old. The Airbus lines are mostly dedicated to the A321s. Few low hour used A319s will be available for purchase. So my crystal ball says, contrary to AA management statements, AA will buy some A220s. Not much of any other choice of current production.


Iíve wondered whether theyíd just convert some of the 250+ Envoy EMB-175 options they have to 190s and just expand that fleet to go head to head against the A-220,especially if the pay rates arenít addressed in this contract. Theyíre never gonna cut into the advantage Delta has on the price on those.

Andrew_VT
07-12-2019, 05:36 PM
Iíve wondered whether theyíd just convert some of the 250+ Envoy EMB-175 options they have to 190s and just expand that fleet to go head to head against the A-220,especially if the pay rates arenít addressed in this contract. Theyíre never gonna cut into the advantage Delta has on the price on those.

Then they'd have to use the much higher paid mainline flight attendants, gate agents, rampers and mechanics.

If those groups didn't leech off of our scope we'd have a smaller mainline narrowbody already.

Windcheck44
07-12-2019, 06:28 PM
Then they'd have to use the much higher paid mainline flight attendants, gate agents, rampers and mechanics.

If those groups didn't leech off of our scope we'd have a smaller mainline narrowbody already.

Iíve definitely considered that, but he was suggesting AA would buy A220s...so thereís no difference. Theyíd just be replacing the 319s, which were originally chosen over the 190 before Delta whipped up such a good deal on their 220s

Name User
07-13-2019, 01:03 PM
Surveys. Especially those we as pilots can see from those customers. Not to mention Delta is not shy of sharing that fact publicly.


GP

#1 and #2 thing they want is a schedule that fits theirs and reliability. My wife will buy tickets on whatever airline meets her needs, the IFE is just an afterthought. No one is buying tickets on Delta because of it. Save the money for free wifi. That is what people would much rather have over a small screen that is outdated in a few years (they are already slow) and space where their feet go that is taken up by large boxes of electronics.

biigD
07-13-2019, 01:24 PM
Itís awesome having content on my own device - itís a thousand times better than some outdated low res screen in a seatback. Plus, the content doesnít pause when the FAs try to sell credit cards or you have a CA that loves to hear himself talk. :)

AAfng
07-13-2019, 01:30 PM
Itís awesome having content on my own device - itís a thousand times better than some outdated low res screen in a seatback. Plus, the content doesnít pause when the FAs try to sell credit cards or you have a CA that loves to hear himself talk. :)

This above

Also, it really sounds like weíre not getting another aircraft type. Our labor costs for all our ground support/FAís are way higher than Delta so itís harder for us to bring stuff the mainline first leaving it at the regionals. At least thats what the company says

Name User
07-13-2019, 02:46 PM
This above

Also, it really sounds like weíre not getting another aircraft type. Our labor costs for all our ground support/FAís are way higher than Delta so itís harder for us to bring stuff the mainline first leaving it at the regionals. At least thats what the company says

It's more that adding more mainline flights to outstations will trigger their scope clauses and require outstations to go to mainline staffing...example MCI is all Envoy or piedmont, swap out 170's with 190's and presto you just doubled your ground costs and turn a slightly profitable station into one that loses money. Repeat that systemwide.

Ideally the company would employ all customer facing folks directly, and those who do not would be contracted out. This allows much better control over your product and typically a better more productive workgroup. At the contract stations I see rampers hustling, have you ever seen a DFW ramper jog across the ramp to marshal you in?

Name User
07-13-2019, 02:48 PM
Itís awesome having content on my own device - itís a thousand times better than some outdated low res screen in a seatback. Plus, the content doesnít pause when the FAs try to sell credit cards or you have a CA that loves to hear himself talk. :)

I gently try to remind guys who like to make constant "where we are" announcements that the movies stop every time they do. So annoying. There needs to be better guidance about what announcements to make, how to make them, etc.

mainlineAF
07-13-2019, 05:19 PM
I gently try to remind guys who like to make constant "where we are" announcements that the movies stop every time they do. So annoying. There needs to be better guidance about what announcements to make, how to make them, etc.



One of the reasons Iíll never be an FO again by choice. Some of the stuff i hear over the PA is cringe-worthy. Youíll get captain Dave talking nonsense about the visibility and altimeter setting and then we sit out on a taxiway for 20 mins and you donít get a reason why. Unbelievable.

mainlineAF
07-13-2019, 05:20 PM
#1 and #2 thing they want is a schedule that fits theirs and reliability. My wife will buy tickets on whatever airline meets her needs, the IFE is just an afterthought. No one is buying tickets on Delta because of it. Save the money for free wifi. That is what people would much rather have over a small screen that is outdated in a few years (they are already slow) and space where their feet go that is taken up by large boxes of electronics.



Exactly. You either are loyal to an airline no matter what, buy the cheapest ticket or buy the one that fits your schedule.

I doubt IFE plays much of a part.

GuardPolice
07-13-2019, 06:27 PM
Exactly. You either are loyal to an airline no matter what, buy the cheapest ticket or buy the one that fits your schedule.

I doubt IFE plays much of a part.



#1 and #2 thing they want is a schedule that fits theirs and reliability. My wife will buy tickets on whatever airline meets her needs, the IFE is just an afterthought. No one is buying tickets on Delta because of it. Save the money for free wifi. That is what people would much rather have over a small screen that is outdated in a few years (they are already slow) and space where their feet go that is taken up by large boxes of electronics.



Who said it was even in the top 3 reasons why someone would book Delta over other carriers? I certainly didnít so youíre trying to make an argument against something I never said. What was said is that high value pax do like seat back IFE and they do say as much.


GP

Name User
07-13-2019, 06:41 PM
My wife loves having the IFE. She doesn't pay for her tickets nor is she under any sort of mandate to buy the cheapest fare. But she would never purchase based on it - its superfluous to the conversation.

All things being equal sure maybe. But they never are. Carriers will all have different schedules and seats available (she won't book a flight if she has to sit in the middle due to lack of options, she will just pick another for example). Everyone is different of course but to infer that IFE on domestic flights is why delta is kicking everyones's ass is naive.

GuardPolice
07-14-2019, 04:10 AM
But she would never purchase based on it - its superfluous to the conversation.

Everyone is different of course but to infer that IFE on domestic flights is why delta is kicking everyones's ass is naive.


Again, who is saying otherwise?



GP

thrust
07-14-2019, 05:06 AM
GP

Unrelated- whatís with the ďGPĒ at the end of every post? Few if any people on this site use a signature their posts... are you concerned folks wonít know itís you? Seems sort of weird. Not as weird as that Delta guy who starts and ends every post with a ď.Ē though.

Just curious. You do you.

GuardPolice
07-14-2019, 05:27 AM
Unrelated- whatís with the ďGPĒ at the end of every post? Few if any people on this site use a signature their posts... are you concerned folks wonít know itís you? Seems sort of weird. Not as weird as that Delta guy who starts and ends every post with a ď.Ē though.



Just curious. You do you.


Ask the other people who do the same as itís more than a few. Just personal preference.


GP

DarinFred
07-14-2019, 08:04 AM
Go to UAL. AA will be out of business ala Eastern in less than 10 years.

AAfng
07-14-2019, 09:22 AM
Go to UAL. AA will be out of business ala Eastern in less than 10 years.

I am at AA and even I cant argue with that statement if Parker stays in charge

52Flyer
07-14-2019, 12:28 PM
Go to UAL. AA will be out of business ala Eastern in less than 10 years.Are people really that pessimistic about AA?

Sent from my ONEPLUS A6013 using Tapatalk

AAL24
07-14-2019, 12:40 PM
I am at AA and even I cant argue with that statement if Parker stays in charge

As much as we all dislike what is happening to the AA product and Parkerís apparent comfort with an industry trailing experience letís get real. AA is not going out of business. Even with an operation that put us in 8th place AA is making Billions in profit. The barrier to entry is large and we have a virtual monopoly in large areas of the country.

There probably is an argument to be made that being junior at Delta or United is better than senior at AA. But going out of business in 10 years is crazy talk.

HardLemonade
07-14-2019, 12:57 PM
I would like to invite anyone over seniority 15,000 to resign and go to United. Please and thank you.

Say hi to Scott Kirby for me.

FlyyGuyy
07-14-2019, 01:50 PM
I would like to invite anyone over seniority 15,000 to resign and go to United. Please and thank you.

Say hi to Scott Kirby for me.

I can agree with this.

Rockiepilot
07-14-2019, 02:34 PM
I am at AA and even I cant argue with that statement if Parker stays in charge

He also predicted union election results incorrectly. I wouldnít put too much into out of business in ten years.... Much to learn still about how things go....

biigD
07-14-2019, 02:44 PM
Are people really that pessimistic about AA?

Nah - just typical APC trolling.

DarinFred
07-14-2019, 03:18 PM
Weíll see how much AA makes 2nd quarter at the earnings call. This operation is a disaster.

PRS Guitars
07-14-2019, 03:35 PM
Weíll see how much AA makes 2nd quarter at the earnings call. This operation is a disaster.

It is a disastrous summer operation, Ill give you that, but out of business? It could happen, but I don't put it as likely at all. With that said, I am trying to pay my house off in the next 8 years as well as have a $50k emergency fund. If they go out of business after that, I can get by on a lower paying local job, or transition airlines hopefully.

thrust
07-14-2019, 03:59 PM
Nah - just typical APC trolling.

Yep.

Folks should go back and read the United forums during the Smisek era. Nothing but sky is falling doom and gloom. Bankruptcy right around the corner, UAL not gonna make it to 2015, blah blah blah.

Name User
07-14-2019, 04:09 PM
Yep.

Folks should go back and read the United forums during the Smisek era. Nothing but sky is falling doom and gloom. Bankruptcy right around the corner, UAL not gonna make it to 2015, blah blah blah.

United was a rudderless ship for years. A new CEO turned the place around. And AA tactics.

Name User
07-14-2019, 04:14 PM
It is a disastrous summer operation, Ill give you that, but out of business? It could happen, but I don't put it as likely at all. With that said, I am trying to pay my house off in the next 8 years as well as have a $50k emergency fund. If they go out of business after that, I can get by on a lower paying local job, or transition airlines hopefully.

This job offers significant opportunity to make a lot of money and set yourself up well should it go away. Just don't get yourself in a scenario where you increase your monthly costs thinking it will never end. Buy things that increase your wealth, not create a drag on your monthly expenditures.

thrust
07-14-2019, 04:31 PM
United was a rudderless ship for years. A new CEO turned the place around. And AA tactics.

Itís clear that AAís current management team isnít viable long term.

I wonder how much Richard Anderson is enjoying the trainwreck that is Amtrak... :D

mainlineAF
07-14-2019, 05:03 PM
Weíll see how much AA makes 2nd quarter at the earnings call. This operation is a disaster.



You read too much below the line.

aa73
07-14-2019, 05:17 PM
Re: IFE

Itís not about whether pax actually use the IFE screens or not.

It has everything to do with brand value and presence.

When people step on a Delta plane they feel like they are flying on a classy airline. New interiors. LED lighting. IFE screens. Embroidered logo in the head rests. Etc, etc. combined with overall good service, that kind of stuff eventually translates to folks paying a premium to fly on Delta, and it is happening according to their latest press release. They have invested heavily in that area and it is paying off.

Conversely, when they step on an AA plane they may notice itís a new plane but thatís it. No screens, etc. Everything looks cheap. Their impression is, ďbudget airline.Ē And it shows in our ratings and morale.

Remember a Gordon Bethuneís famous quote, ďYou can make a cheese pizza so cheap that nobody will eat it?Ē That is AAís motto today.

Brand presence is Deltaís name of the game. It works.

AwkwardTurtle
07-15-2019, 05:12 AM
Re: IFE

Itís not about whether pax actually use the IFE screens or not.

It has everything to do with brand value and presence.

When people step on a Delta plane they feel like they are flying on a classy airline. New interiors. LED lighting. IFE screens. Embroidered logo in the head rests. Etc, etc. combined with overall good service, that kind of stuff eventually translates to folks paying a premium to fly on Delta, and it is happening according to their latest press release. They have invested heavily in that area and it is paying off.

Conversely, when they step on an AA plane they may notice itís a new plane but thatís it. No screens, etc. Everything looks cheap. Their impression is, ďbudget airline.Ē And it shows in our ratings and morale.

Remember a Gordon Bethuneís famous quote, ďYou can make a cheese pizza so cheap that nobody will eat it?Ē That is AAís motto today.

Brand presence is Deltaís name of the game. It works.

This.

Everything feels so cheesy.

Erroneous
07-15-2019, 08:24 AM
https://www.theguardian.com/business/2019/jul/15/boeing-737-max-ordered-by-ryanair-undergoes-name-change

Why extend cancellations due to grounding when you can change the name.

Andrew_VT
07-15-2019, 10:16 AM
You read too much below the line.

If you don't think this operation is a disaster then you must be on a widebody.

Operations on those fleets are merely 'below average'.

A330FoodCritic
07-15-2019, 09:02 PM
If you don't think this operation is a disaster then you must be on a widebody.

Operations on those fleets are merely 'below average'.

Actually that hunk of lamb was really good :-)

nAAtive
07-16-2019, 06:19 AM
Actually that hunk of lamb was really good :-)

Hard pass on airplane food.

Erroneous
07-16-2019, 11:40 AM
Hard pass on airplane food.

Do you prefer blondes or brunettes, cause Iíll take anything. While Iíd rather have the cash some options arenít so bad and better than the 10 cents theyíd give me in my paycheck for it.

viper548
07-16-2019, 11:49 AM
Hard pass on airplane food.

I normally do too but the A-321T food is pretty good and it appears some of the widebody flying has even better food.

nAAtive
07-16-2019, 12:35 PM
Do you prefer blondes or brunettes, cause Iíll take anything. While Iíd rather have the cash some options arenít so bad and better than the 10 cents theyíd give me in my paycheck for it.

Itís about personal health not cost. No thanks

Name User
07-16-2019, 07:06 PM
Back on topic, UA blew away earnings and bought another 19 737-700's.

TransWorld
07-16-2019, 07:14 PM
Back on topic, UA blew away earnings and bought another 19 737-700's.

Any idea where they are coming from?

Surprise
07-16-2019, 08:32 PM
Back on topic, UA blew away earnings and bought another 19 737-700's.

Iíve noticed that AA stock has had a good week. Which is interesting because I honestly wouldnít be surprised if we reported a loss for the 2nd quarter. Operationally it really seems that bad.

Sniper66
07-17-2019, 04:05 AM
Any idea where they are coming from?




A friend from UAL said Copa Airlines

chrisreedrules
07-17-2019, 05:59 AM
Iíve noticed that AA stock has had a good week. Which is interesting because I honestly wouldnít be surprised if we reported a loss for the 2nd quarter. Operationally it really seems that bad.

How has it been any different than summerís past?

Pilot X
07-17-2019, 06:22 AM
A friend from UAL said Copa Airlines

That makes sense cause they could save money by not having to paint them haha

Name User
07-17-2019, 07:17 AM
Iíve noticed that AA stock has had a good week. Which is interesting because I honestly wouldnít be surprised if we reported a loss for the 2nd quarter. Operationally it really seems that bad.

Just guessing but probably a sympathy play from the other carriers.

Name User
07-17-2019, 07:19 AM
How has it been any different than summerís past?

DFW has was hit at least weekly if not several times a week repeatedly for like two months straight. Last year I remember a few days but for the most part it had high pressure over the area for like three months.

nAAtive
07-17-2019, 09:51 AM
How has it been any different than summerís past?

Itís been very different from my past 20 summers there.

mainlineAF
07-17-2019, 12:44 PM
DFW has was hit at least weekly if not several times a week repeatedly for like two months straight. Last year I remember a few days but for the most part it had high pressure over the area for like three months.



Not only that but a couple weeks ago PHL/LGA/DCA were all hit hard almost every other day.

The weather has not been kind to AA hubs this summer.

TransWorld
07-17-2019, 04:16 PM
A friend from UAL said Copa Airlines

Could be. They announced they are acquiring 19 used 737-700s. It appears Copa only has 7 of them. None are parked in the desert. Anyone have an idea where the others are coming from?

Name User
07-17-2019, 04:47 PM
Could be. They announced they are acquiring 19 used 737-700s. It appears Copa only has 7 of them. None are parked in the desert. Anyone have an idea where the others are coming from?

I feel like you may be asking on the wrong sub-forum

Name User
07-17-2019, 04:50 PM
Not only that but a couple weeks ago PHL/LGA/DCA were all hit hard almost every other day.

The weather has not been kind to AA hubs this summer.

I don't go to the NE anymore so I haven't even been paying attention at all...that sucks. That being said I think that is more normal lol.

It has seemed like ATL has escaped the worst of the stuff for the most part, and Delta runs 50% of their flights thru there vs 30% at DFW, so if it stays in the clear they can cope with the NE getting hit.

Surprise
07-17-2019, 05:28 PM
Beyond the weather, militant mechanics, MAX groundings, high load factors, and just general mismanagement donít help either.

chrisreedrules
07-17-2019, 06:28 PM
Itís been very different from my past 20 summers there.

This is only my 5th summer in the AA system but it seems sort of like business as usual to me. Maybe itís just an Eagle thing.

mainlineAF
07-18-2019, 04:49 AM
Beyond the weather, militant mechanics, MAX groundings, high load factors, and just general mismanagement donít help either.



Of course. All of those things combined have made for a rough summer.

TransWorld
07-18-2019, 04:58 AM
I feel like you may be asking on the wrong sub-forum

Only because that topic was raised on this forum. The only other forum had a speculation of getting them from Southwest. They have a bunch of AirTran 737-700 they fly. They are being replaced by the Max, someday, some year.

TransWorld
07-18-2019, 08:41 PM
Lastest speculation on the United forums for them acquiring 19 used 737-700:

Copa (But they only have 7)
Avianca (But they have none)
Southwest (But they has said they will replace with MAXs)
China (someplace, some airline, but speculation, no other info)

Clearly they donít know any more either.

Erroneous
07-19-2019, 04:06 AM
ďAhead of its earnings report next week, Boeing on Thursday said it will report an after-tax charge of $4.9 billion related to its grounded 737 Max jets.Ē

So how much did Boeing stand to gain? Iím sure well north of this figure. Seems like a nice compensation until reality sets in about how many this gets divided up for. Wish they would have just restarted the 757 line, updated with composites/engines/new wing etc. for a cheaper operating cost, but the orders would never have been as high due to the ďSouthwestĒ factor.

Name User
07-19-2019, 06:42 AM
“Ahead of its earnings report next week, Boeing on Thursday said it will report an after-tax charge of $4.9 billion related to its grounded 737 Max jets.”

So how much did Boeing stand to gain? I’m sure well north of this figure. Seems like a nice compensation until reality sets in about how many this gets divided up for. Wish they would have just restarted the 757 line, updated with composites/engines/new wing etc. for a cheaper operating cost, but the orders would never have been as high due to the “Southwest” factor.

The 321 killed the 757. It did 95% of what the 757 did while keeping a common type at a 25% cost advantage. There is a reason that as soon as the 321 was available, 757 orders fell off a cliff.

Boeing doesn't want to ever take a moonshot again, the problem is they need to at this point to prevent Airbus running away with the narrowbody market.

N6279P
07-19-2019, 07:46 AM
ďAhead of its earnings report next week, Boeing on Thursday said it will report an after-tax charge of $4.9 billion related to its grounded 737 Max jets.Ē

So how much did Boeing stand to gain? Iím sure well north of this figure. Seems like a nice compensation until reality sets in about how many this gets divided up for. Wish they would have just restarted the 757 line, updated with composites/engines/new wing etc. for a cheaper operating cost, but the orders would never have been as high due to the ďSouthwestĒ factor.

Why do people think you can just ďrestartĒ the 757 line? The tooling has been destroyed long ago and the many suppliers are no longer in the picture. Changing to composites/new wing would be a new airplane anyway.

Brillo
07-19-2019, 09:15 AM
Why do people think you can just ďrestartĒ the 757 line? The tooling has been destroyed long ago and the many suppliers are no longer in the picture. Changing to composites/new wing would be a new airplane anyway.

Standard pilot stuff. A fundamental lack of understanding of many things outside of the cockpit coupled with a fundamental belief that they know everything about everything.

3EngineTaxi
07-19-2019, 09:20 AM
Are 767s still being produced for cargo?

iHateAMR
07-19-2019, 10:16 AM
Why do people think you can just ďrestartĒ the 757 line? The tooling has been destroyed long ago and the many suppliers are no longer in the picture. Changing to composites/new wing would be a new airplane anyway.

Since the 747-400 got a new air foil, was it a ďnew airplaneĒ per your definition? What about the 747-8? What about the 767-400 vs the -200 and -300s? The 737-200 vs 737-500 re-engine on the same fuselage/wing? A320 vs A320NEO.

When does an airplane become ďnew,Ē and when is it just updating with latest technologies?

I donít think any of us will ever have the answer, but something to ponder when you shoot down his/her updated 757 airfoil/engine idea. Not to mention there is significant parts commonality with the 767, which last check was still in production.

Name User
07-19-2019, 11:58 AM
Since the 747-400 got a new air foil, was it a ďnew airplaneĒ per your definition? What about the 747-8? What about the 767-400 vs the -200 and -300s? The 737-200 vs 737-500 re-engine on the same fuselage/wing? A320 vs A320NEO.

When does an airplane become ďnew,Ē and when is it just updating with latest technologies?

I donít think any of us will ever have the answer, but something to ponder when you shoot down his/her updated 757 airfoil/engine idea. Not to mention there is significant parts commonality with the 767, which last check was still in production.

Without looking it up the 757 sold about 1000 copies. It's new found attraction has come about from a combination of cheap acquisition costs and availability. For the same reason the 717 was a "hot" item...a decade or more after production ceased.

OKLATEX
07-20-2019, 06:32 AM
Are 767s still being produced for cargo?

Yes, have been/continue to take one a month from Boeing. All but two of the FDX 767s you see out there are factory fresh. Bought two from Silk Airways.

Standard 767-300ER/F but we have a full glass 787 Style Rockwell Collins Avionics.

Name User
07-20-2019, 08:30 AM
Boeing has so far refused to produce pax 767's. It's likely partly a business decision as it would eat into their 787-8 sales. Keep in mind on the last 787 order, AA purchased 787-9's but leased their 787-8's. I'm assuming this is because they anticipate purchasing the 797 once it comes available. I have to wonder if long term the 777 will be retired out of the fleet as well.

Surprise
07-20-2019, 01:56 PM
I have to wonder if long term the 777 will be retired out of the fleet as well.

Iíd actually expect a 777X order at some point. I know they say thereís no money in cargo, but...

AAfng
07-20-2019, 06:17 PM
Since the 747-400 got a new air foil, was it a ďnew airplaneĒ per your definition? What about the 747-8? What about the 767-400 vs the -200 and -300s? The 737-200 vs 737-500 re-engine on the same fuselage/wing? A320 vs A320NEO.

When does an airplane become ďnew,Ē and when is it just updating with latest technologies?

I donít think any of us will ever have the answer, but something to ponder when you shoot down his/her updated 757 airfoil/engine idea. Not to mention there is significant parts commonality with the 767, which last check was still in production.

For a guy who hates AMR you sure are on the American pages a lot. Missing this place?

AAL24
07-20-2019, 08:26 PM
Iíd actually expect a 777X order at some point. I know they say thereís no money in cargo, but...

Hope youíre right! It will be a long wait. I think the ME3 bought the first few years of production. Emirates has around 100-150 on order.

Name User
07-20-2019, 09:29 PM
Iíd actually expect a 777X order at some point. I know they say thereís no money in cargo, but...

There is no money in cargo. There is money in logistics.

The X is too expensive.

TRZ06
07-21-2019, 12:14 AM
There is no money in cargo. There is money in logistics.

The X is too expensive.

Too expensive and too big for what AA does. I doubt there will be any aircraft larger than the 789 and even those will be just enough to replace the A330 and 772 if that. I fly the 773 and unless you are flying premium long haul eg DFW-HKG it doesn't make much sense to compete against the smaller 787 or probably the A350 too but I'm not certain about that. Trend is definitely more NBs long range on thinner routes for direct service from the Hubs. These will bypass the traditional pairs and maybe increase fares for the convenience factor. I know folks hate to hear of a drastic decline of Group 4 (and 3) aircraft but its been happening since the demise of the DC10 which the 767 and eventually 777 came to replace. Just hope the pay will compensate accordingly for all those with their career ahead of them.

AAL24
07-21-2019, 03:19 AM
Too expensive and too big for what AA does. I doubt there will be any aircraft larger than the 789 and even those will be just enough to replace the A330 and 772 if that. I fly the 773 and unless you are flying premium long haul eg DFW-HKG it doesn't make much sense to compete against the smaller 787 or probably the A350 too but I'm not certain about that. Trend is definitely more NBs long range on thinner routes for direct service from the Hubs. These will bypass the traditional pairs and maybe increase fares for the convenience factor. I know folks hate to hear of a drastic decline of Group 4 (and 3) aircraft but its been happening since the demise of the DC10 which the 767 and eventually 777 came to replace. Just hope the pay will compensate accordingly for all those with their career ahead of them.

Too expensive and too big for what AA does? AA is the biggest airline in the world. Sad that we can't compete with global airlines on the premium routes. 777X should be perfect for Heathrow, Hong Kong, Sao Paulo, Tokyo, Singapore, Shanghai, CDG, etc. By then we will probably have dropped all those cities to our code share partners in favor of random places with no direct competition.

ORDinary
07-21-2019, 04:41 AM
For a guy who hates AMR you sure are on the American pages a lot. Missing this place?

Maybe he hates AMR but loves AAG..

AAL24
07-25-2019, 07:08 AM
We’ll see how much AA makes 2nd quarter at the earnings call. This operation is a disaster.

Record revenue. Pre-tax profit of 1.1 billion. Margins at about 9%. Quarterly revenue, margins, and profit all exceeded expectations. This despite a disaster operationally with weather, mechanic issues, and max grounding. Over 8 billion in liquidity. 1.2 billion contributed towards the pensions which was 400 million above what was required. Imagine what they would make if the operation was actually firing on all cylinders.

Any talk of Ch11 or that AA can't afford an industry leading contract is crazy.

mainlineAF
07-25-2019, 01:24 PM
Iíve noticed that AA stock has had a good week. Which is interesting because I honestly wouldnít be surprised if we reported a loss for the 2nd quarter. Operationally it really seems that bad.



Guess it wasnít all that bad with almost a billion in profit even though out on the line sometimes it sure seems it is.

tnkrdrvr
07-25-2019, 01:50 PM
Record revenue. Pre-tax profit of 1.1 billion. Margins at about 9%. Quarterly revenue, margins, and profit all exceeded expectations. This despite a disaster operationally with weather, mechanic issues, and max grounding. Over 8 billion in liquidity. 1.2 billion contributed towards the pensions which was 400 million above what was required. Imagine what they would make if the operation was actually firing on all cylinders.

Any talk of Ch11 or that AA can't afford an industry leading contract is crazy.

You have pensions?!?:confused:

Surprise
07-25-2019, 05:19 PM
Guess it wasnít all that bad with almost a billion in profit even though out on the line sometimes it sure seems it is.

They must be selling a lot of credit cards.

DWC CAP10 USAF
07-25-2019, 05:33 PM
AA is the biggest airline in the world.

Uummm......

https://thepointsguy.com/news/american-airlines-loses-worlds-largest-airline-title-to-delta-and-united/

Name User
07-25-2019, 05:34 PM
Guess it wasn’t all that bad with almost a billion in profit even though out on the line sometimes it sure seems it is.

Net was around $650m.

Still decent but not really a billion.

I think they may be setting themselves up for debt pay down come 2021 and beyond. If I heard Kerr correctly it sounds like they plan on actually paying the debt as it comes due in fairly large chunks (several billion a year).

Of note Latin America demand is recovering fast and MIA was the second best hub in the system (pretty sure that is what he said).

I'm not sure why they advertise to our competitors where we are making the most money. That seems rather...stupid?

mainlineAF
07-25-2019, 05:48 PM
Uummm......



https://thepointsguy.com/news/american-airlines-loses-worlds-largest-airline-title-to-delta-and-united/



Depends on the metric. Plus, who tf cares?

DWC CAP10 USAF
07-25-2019, 05:49 PM
Depends on the metric. Plus, who tf cares?

I would say AAL24 cares since he was using it to support his stance in his reply.

full of luv
07-25-2019, 09:04 PM
Net was around $650m.

Still decent but not really a billion.

I think they may be setting themselves up for debt pay down come 2021 and beyond. If I heard Kerr correctly it sounds like they plan on actually paying the debt as it comes due in fairly large chunks (several billion a year).

Of note Latin America demand is recovering fast and MIA was the second best hub in the system (pretty sure that is what he said).

I'm not sure why they advertise to our competitors where we are making the most money. That seems rather...stupid?

I'm sure it's for investor's benefit/confidence in Mgmt, not competitors info......

2019 2nd Q will go down as an record across the industry thanks to generally strong economy, stable/low fuel costs, and the fact that the MAX took 3-5% of the domestic ASM's out of the domestic system allowing revenue to come in much above expectations.

Delta said that it's $2B pre-tax 2019 2nd quarter profit was more profit than the company made in full years profit in 85 of its 90 years of existence.

AAL24
07-26-2019, 12:01 AM
I would say AAL24 cares since he was using it to support his stance in his reply.

The point was AA is big enough as an airline to support a 777x fleet. If AAL wasnít hellbent on farming international out they could easily fill the larger wide bodies. So after parking 30 or so jets AA is no longer the biggest. Who cares. That doesnít change the fact that they have a huge feed which could easily support more widebody flying.

full of luv
07-26-2019, 10:12 AM
The point was AA is big enough as an airline to support a 777x fleet. If AAL wasnít hellbent on farming international out they could easily fill the larger wide bodies. So after parking 30 or so jets AA is no longer the biggest. Who cares. That doesnít change the fact that they have a huge feed which could easily support more widebody flying.

All of the US carriers are figuring out that the international ďpartnersĒ are able to fly widebodies at a significant cost savings (both labor and access to taxpayer subsidized financing thru the IO bank) making JVs the preferred way to tap into that profit.

Name User
07-26-2019, 04:46 PM
The point was AA is big enough as an airline to support a 777x fleet. If AAL wasnít hellbent on farming international out they could easily fill the larger wide bodies. So after parking 30 or so jets AA is no longer the biggest. Who cares. That doesnít change the fact that they have a huge feed which could easily support more widebody flying.

AA's biggest issue internationally has been locals buying tickets on us. They have the domestic demand but not the demand on the other side of the ocean. Some of that has been our operation of course but also I think our name/brand doesn't help much. This has been a huge issue with our China market.

AAL24
07-26-2019, 07:04 PM
The reason for that is we have an inferior product. By a long shot. Plus a very unreliable schedule. Same week service.

Arado 234
07-27-2019, 07:26 AM
AA's biggest issue internationally has been locals buying tickets on us. They have the domestic demand but not the demand on the other side of the ocean. Some of that has been our operation of course but also I think our name/brand doesn't help much. This has been a huge issue with our China market.

Have you seen any AA advertising? If they'd spend the half the amount DL does, I'd think our international ops would literally take off!

Surprise
07-27-2019, 08:54 AM
Have you seen any AA advertising? If they'd spend the half the amount DL does, I'd think our international ops would literally take off!

They did have that weird campaign a while back which featured ďthe flight symbolĒ hovering over exotic landscapes. Iím not sure why that would compel anyone to book on AA though. Money well spent.

Name User
07-27-2019, 05:19 PM
Have you seen any AA advertising? If they'd spend the half the amount DL does, I'd think our international ops would literally take off!

So what can we advertise?


We're the world's largest airline! (Oops not anymore)
Our planes all have WiFi! (That you must pay for and only the mainline planes have them and if you go outside the lower 48 it may or may not work)
We're not ranked last in quality ratings! (#9 out of 10!)
We're the most ontime network carrier! (nope)
We're the most reliable carrier! (Hahhahahahhaaha ok sorry)
We have the newest fleet! (Averaged, but also have old AF mainline aircraft and E145's, deltas planes in general look newer on the inside)

So hopefully you get the gist of my point. We don't advertise (anymore) because there isn't anything we can advertise for.

Name User
07-27-2019, 05:30 PM
They did have that weird campaign a while back which featured ďthe flight symbolĒ hovering over exotic landscapes. Iím not sure why that would compel anyone to book on AA though. Money well spent.
Exactly...when you buy things you generally want to purchase them and the purchase gives you a hit of dopamine.

When you buy a ticket on AA...most people get a sense of dread! Oh crap, I HAVE to fly AA (because there isn't another viable option). That literally is their business plan that they have telegraphed - to corner the market in certain areas and just collect their money.

That quite frankly sounds like how the mob makes their "protection" racket!

So my question has been...what happens when we can no longer maintain that monopoly, or a new entrant comes in...how do we compete?

I would bet my pay check that the sole reason for building out the additional DFW terminal is to prevent another carrier (*cough* Delta) from building it and moving in.

Parker is so far in over his head. He wasted $12b on buying back stock that instead could've been used to gain more market share with improved and consistent products.

GhettoJet
07-28-2019, 03:31 AM
So what can we advertise?


We're the world's largest airline! (Oops not anymore)
Our planes all have WiFi! (That you must pay for and only the mainline planes have them and if you go outside the lower 48 it may or may not work)
We're not ranked last in quality ratings! (#9 out of 10!)
We're the most ontime network carrier! (nope)
We're the most reliable carrier! (Hahhahahahhaaha ok sorry)
We have the newest fleet! (Averaged, but also have old AF mainline aircraft and E145's, deltas planes in general look newer on the inside)

So hopefully you get the gist of my point. We don't advertise (anymore) because there isn't anything we can advertise for.

Mostly same day service?

DarinFred
07-28-2019, 01:00 PM
Iíve said this before. We work for the mafia. Our operation is the car wash they use to launder money into their pockets. Our executives donít care about our passengers or the Ďservicesí we provide.

A330FoodCritic
07-29-2019, 03:56 PM
The reason for that is we have an inferior product. By a long shot. Plus a very unreliable schedule. Same week service.

Took a 787 LAX - HND, biz class, and the service was awesome, plane was awesome, no complaints.

Maybe it's is a toss up on the cabin crews. Our product doesn't have to be inferior.

chrisreedrules
07-29-2019, 04:07 PM
Took a 787 LAX - HND, biz class, and the service was awesome, plane was awesome, no complaints.

Maybe it's is a toss up on the cabin crews. Our product doesn't have to be inferior.

The 1st/Business class product offered by all 3 legacies is relatively comparable. Theyíre all pretty good.

Name User
07-29-2019, 04:25 PM
I’ve said this before. We work for the mafia. Our operation is the car wash they use to launder money into their pockets. Our executives don’t care about our passengers or the ‘services’ we provide.

Yeah I think you are spot on. That being said VERY few corporations are any different. SWA is to an extent. But labor is no different, always needy and whining about something. Even those who are paid well.

isuguy
08-12-2019, 08:19 PM
Lookout!!

https://www.google.com/amp/s/skift.com/2019/08/12/united-airlines-now-tells-pilots-no-drinking-for-12-hours-before-shift-starts/amp/

OVBIII
08-13-2019, 05:47 AM
Lookout!!

https://www.google.com/amp/s/skift.com/2019/08/12/united-airlines-now-tells-pilots-no-drinking-for-12-hours-before-shift-starts/amp/

Thatís my rule anyway. (It makes my mental math easier!) ha!

full of luv
08-13-2019, 08:11 AM
Took a 787 LAX - HND, biz class, and the service was awesome, plane was awesome, no complaints.

Maybe it's is a toss up on the cabin crews. Our product doesn't have to be inferior.

Actually I've almost always had a good flight experience on AA (not counting delays/canx flts), what I've had issues with is any interaction with the gate staff. For some reason I always seem to catch them at their crabbiest moment.

isuguy
08-13-2019, 09:52 PM
Mostly just crabby?? Since Iíve been here for 6ish months, Iíve been overall disappointed with gate agents. Happy ones are few and far between. Just reporting my experience.

It seems if ur mad at work all day cuz u donít like people(people are arse holes), then get a different job.

full of luv
08-14-2019, 04:21 AM
Mostly just crabby?? Since Iíve been here for 6ish months, Iíve been overall disappointed with gate agents. Happy ones are few and far between. Just reporting my experience.

It seems if ur mad at work all day cuz u donít like people(people are arse holes), then get a different job.

Do AA gate agents get profit sharing?
PS at Delta for gate agents has seemed to make a big difference in attitudes over the last decade.
May just be a coincidence but correlation seems strong. That and the fact that firing a bad gate agent (or reassigning then) is probably easier at DAL.

Covfefe
08-14-2019, 05:52 AM
Do AA gate agents get profit sharing?
PS at Delta for gate agents has seemed to make a big difference in attitudes over the last decade.
May just be a coincidence but correlation seems strong. That and the fact that firing a bad gate agent (or reassigning then) is probably easier at DAL.

Pretty sure they get the same crummy PS that pilots do, but IMO what is REALLY wrong is that their managers get big bonuses that are tied to on time performance. This leads managers to put a lot of heat on agents (and everyone else) so they get their $$$ while their subordinates gets scraps. Exactly the WRONG way to do it.

QuagmireGiggity
08-17-2019, 02:45 PM
Itís more than the blue wave, even my liberal friends and family want to move. Itís just changing rapidly. You can have great life in CLT, and will probably hold it before you could Interview, get a CJO, get a class date, then hold DEN at UAL. I have the opposite problem of you, we thought about moving to CLT when I got hired, and moved home to Colorado instead. Now the kids are well established and we are tied in. I regret it every day.

You wonít commute from CLT for 20 years...thatís not mathematically possible, unless they close the base or shrink it rapidly. The problem is, itís still being affected by the integration. LAA guys want it and new hires that were on the LAA side senior to you want it, and they seem to have shrunk the flying a bit. It wonít be forever though.Quite a few gates under contruction right now. After those get finished I think there will be more flying. Also if you look at the CLT airports official website CLT is going to have a net gain of 32 gates over the next several years. There's going to be a ton more flying. But... I love Colorado.. if AA had a base there I would have been gone yesterday.

757HI
08-29-2019, 02:17 PM
Been a commuter with AA for 27 months while living in CLT. Strongly considering moving to Denver for family reasons. Not thrilled with AA culture/debt and would certainly prefer living in base (still canít hold CLT). Should I dust off my UAL app and forgo AA seniority accrued or suck it up and commute for the next 20 years? Thx all.

Elevate,

You have no choice, because you have no job offer.

Apply to UAL, if you are offered the job, make your choice.

What I tell pup aviators is this: don't chase the flavor-of-the-year club with airlines. Every airline goes through its tough times and boom time.

So, if you are lucky enough to have multiple offers, pick the place that has the domicile you like, and that meets your family's needs if that is a factor.

Living in domicile is heaven.

Living in domicile with the full range of fleets available, from narrowbody to wide body, is like a kid in Wonka's factory.

For instance, if you want to live in the DC area (UAL, SWA, AA) if you go with UAL, you will have everything from narrow body domestic to widebody international all at one base. With AA in the DC area, it's a narrow body base only, and you'll commute to a wide body base.

PRS Guitars
11-12-2019, 04:01 PM
Did you quit? If not, Iím guessing you got CLT on the last bid. Congrats, if so.

Al Czervik
11-15-2019, 11:01 AM
Did you quit? If not, Iím guessing you got CLT on the last bid. Congrats, if so.

Bump........

BeechPilot33
11-15-2019, 11:36 AM
Did you quit? If not, Iím guessing you got CLT on the last bid. Congrats, if so.

Ha good catch. I hope he didnít quit!

757HI
11-19-2019, 06:22 PM
Been a commuter with AA for 27 months while living in CLT. Strongly considering moving to Denver for family reasons. Not thrilled with AA culture/debt and would certainly prefer living in base (still canít hold CLT). Should I dust off my UAL app and forgo AA seniority accrued or suck it up and commute for the next 20 years? Thx all.

No choice to be made without a job offer.

symbian simian
11-21-2019, 12:03 PM
Been a commuter with AA for 27 months while living in CLT. Strongly considering moving to Denver for family reasons. Not thrilled with AA culture/debt and would certainly prefer living in base (still canít hold CLT). Should I dust off my UAL app and forgo AA seniority accrued or suck it up and commute for the next 20 years? Thx all.

No choice to be made without a job offer. Absolutely!

Live in&love DEN. Holding DEN as a junior FO isnít the problem. My next door neighbor is UAL, 20+ years. Commutes to ORD or bids training center for better schedules. Friend, 2013 hire, PIC 737, thinking it will be a few years before he gets DEN. I have seen 20year NB FOs on my commute. Itís still a very senior base with little movement.

Disclaimer: not at UAL myself.

GoCats67
11-22-2019, 11:14 AM
Not sure I would leave after 27months at AA (actually more since you haven't gotten an offer from UA yet), but just for information purposes Guys in new hire class were awarded a lateral to DEN on the 737 this last week on a vacancy bid.

So, the current time to get to DEN is very reduced at UA. Not sure how long it will last, but with the 787 domicile open in DEN now and the "planned" growth of the operation in DEN, movement seems to be very good on the bottom

O2pilot
11-26-2019, 04:27 PM
Absolutely!

Live in&love DEN. Holding DEN as a junior FO isnít the problem. My next door neighbor is UAL, 20+ years. Commutes to ORD or bids training center for better schedules. Friend, 2013 hire, PIC 737, thinking it will be a few years before he gets DEN. I have seen 20year NB FOs on my commute. Itís still a very senior base with little movement.

Disclaimer: not at UAL myself.

Are you talking about United? We have 12 year Captains here in DEN now and NBFO went unfilled on the last vacancy bid. It was different 5 years ago, but its completely changed now. DEN could be given out in new hire classes in the future. A lot changed when the 787 base opened in DEN.

symbian simian
11-26-2019, 09:18 PM
Are you talking about United? We have 12 year Captains here in DEN now and NBFO went unfilled on the last vacancy bid. It was different 5 years ago, but its completely changed now. DEN could be given out in new hire classes in the future. A lot changed when the 787 base opened in DEN.

I know newhires can get DEN, as I said in my post, just like I said I know people that are still waiting to get to DEN in the left seat at 7 years. Being the plug at 12 years on a NB doesn't sound awesome if you don't mind me saying so. What exactly did I say you disagree with??

O2pilot
11-27-2019, 09:18 AM
I know newhires can get DEN, as I said in my post, just like I said I know people that are still waiting to get to DEN in the left seat at 7 years. Being the plug at 12 years on a NB doesn't sound awesome if you don't mind me saying so. What exactly did I say you disagree with??

I know a lot of people that commute to other bases to hold better flying, despite being able to hold their own base. The length in time is mostly because we didnít hire for almost a decade. A 2013 hire is literally only a couple hundred seniority numbers from holding DEN, and could happen on the next bid, based on whatís coming down the pipeline. Expecting 65 Captain bids a month just on the guppy for the foreseeable future, not including backfills form 18 wide bodies being delivered by June. So come back in 6 months and there will be 6 year pilots holding Captain in DEN, the most senior base by far.

seafeye
11-28-2019, 05:51 PM
Lookout!!

https://www.google.com/amp/s/skift.com/2019/08/12/united-airlines-now-tells-pilots-no-drinking-for-12-hours-before-shift-starts/amp/


Well just go ahead and say no drinking on overnights. This 4 day trip Iím on has 3,12 hour overnights.

ShyGuy
11-29-2019, 02:28 PM
On 3rd yr pay and leave AA to go to UA for DEN? Youíd be a fool. Just wait for CLT or move to whatever AA base you want. Enjoy your career.

symbian simian
12-03-2019, 08:13 AM
I know a lot of people that commute to other bases to hold better flying, despite being able to hold their own base. The length in time is mostly because we didnít hire for almost a decade. A 2013 hire is literally only a couple hundred seniority numbers from holding DEN, and could happen on the next bid, based on whatís coming down the pipeline. Expecting 65 Captain bids a month just on the guppy for the foreseeable future, not including backfills form 18 wide bodies being delivered by June. So come back in 6 months and there will be 6 year pilots holding Captain in DEN, the most senior base by far.

Thanks. filler

GhettoJet
12-12-2019, 06:57 AM
Been a commuter with AA for 27 months while living in CLT. Strongly considering moving to Denver for family reasons. Not thrilled with AA culture/debt and would certainly prefer living in base (still canít hold CLT). Should I dust off my UAL app and forgo AA seniority accrued or suck it up and commute for the next 20 years? Thx all.

As of right now, if you are a young guy or gal with less than five years seniority at AA and are offered a UAL or DAL class, you need to consider going.

Al Czervik
12-12-2019, 07:23 AM
As of right now, if you are a young guy or gal with less than five years seniority at AA and are offered a UAL or DAL class, you need to consider going.

Not with Kirby.

DarinFred
12-12-2019, 08:28 AM
As of right now, if you are a young guy or gal with less than five years seniority at AA and are offered a UAL or DAL class, you need to consider going.

Wait, wut? 🙄

UPTme
12-12-2019, 09:10 AM
As of right now, if you are a young guy or gal with less than five years seniority at AA and are offered a UAL or DAL class, you need to consider going.

4 to 5 year seniority holds WB FO or NB CA. I'd stay put!

MasterOfPuppets
12-12-2019, 09:41 AM
Not with Kirby.

Iím starting to think AA and Parker were the problem not Kirby.

Kirby has made UA a pretty damn good place in terms of growth and WB flying. Our route structure exploded under his reign.

Al Czervik
12-12-2019, 09:52 AM
Iím starting to think AA and Parker were the problem not Kirby.

Kirby has made UA a pretty damn good place in terms of growth and WB flying. Our route structure exploded under his reign.

Toxic culture management style. Pass

MasterOfPuppets
12-12-2019, 09:56 AM
Toxic culture management style. Pass

The culture is far from Toxic at UA, in fact I think itís the best itís ever been. again I think that was an AA thing. The AA culture has been toxic since the 90s. US wasnít much better and the AWA merger made that worse.

Again I donít think it was driven by Kirby. I get why you all hate on him but Iv seen nothing but good since he has been at UA.

Al Czervik
12-12-2019, 09:59 AM
The culture is far from Toxic at UA, in fact I think it’s the best it’s ever been. again I think that was an AA thing. The AA culture has been toxic since the 90s. US wasn’t much better and the AWA merger made that worse.

Again I don’t think it was driven by Kirby. I get why you all hate on him but Iv seen nothing but good since he has been at UA.

I agree. I’m jealous of the UA culture. I think Oscar was a big key in that. Kirby is a smart dude but I hope he doesn’t kill the culture with “bottom line only” thinking.

MasterOfPuppets
12-12-2019, 10:06 AM
I agree. Iím jealous of the UA culture. I think Oscar was a big key in that. Kirby is a smart dude but I hope he doesnít kill the culture with ďbottom line onlyĒ thinking.

I agree Oscar is the reason for the massive culture change at UA. I hope Kirby learned from him. Also Oscar will be head of the Board so if he remains engaged from that perspective Kirby will still need to watch what he does or the board will replace him.

Iv seen Kirby speak several times and says the right things.....but you and I both know what that is worth.

Surprise
12-12-2019, 11:50 AM
Kirby does dress up like Ke$ha though. While insisting he needs 81 seat RJs. Time will tell.

Surprise
12-12-2019, 11:51 AM
And yes, I am ashamed I know how to stylize ďKe$haĒ.

Vernon Demerest
12-13-2019, 09:26 AM
As a UAL pilot Iíll say two things:

1. 5 years in at AA and thinking of jumping ship? Nuts. I love it here but wouldnít give up 5 years of AA seniority to come here. No way. JetBlue, Frontier, Spirit, Allegiant; even SWA maybe but not AA. I think within 5 years AA will be a completely different place and my bet is you all will be happy. Airlines cycle at the top. Delta has had their day in the sun but Iím seeing signs of things over there getting all ďGummedĒup next year. UAL is doing the right things and absent a recession, I see our airline rising but nothing will last forever and AA could very well climb above us in 5 years. Look at where we were 5 years ago!

2. Kirby is a smart network guy and that is what UAL needed in a terribly bad way. We already had hubs in great markets and wide bodies with tons of wide body orders. We just needed a mind that could connect the dots and put them to use where they maximized profit. Some of us were surprised to see 777s going to Florida and all over our domestic network this year but it has worked. He drove the decisions to add used narrow body aircraft and has put us in a position to take a ton of MAXs over the next 5 years with 321s coming as well. Iíll give him some slack for a while.

AAfng
12-13-2019, 09:44 AM
I left UAL for aa. 900+ retirements per year cant be beat. Ual has airport standby, always converting lc to sc, commuter clause sucks compared to aa, can only drop to 50hrs at ual and its megabase is SFO so unless you live on the west coast forget about it.

Not digging on ual, just showing that aa isnt near as bad as aa guys think it is. Plus no hat at AA. Now let me go back to figuring out what to spend my profit sharing on this year: tube socks or underwear.

Vernon Demerest
12-13-2019, 10:08 AM
I left UAL for aa. 900+ retirements per year cant be beat. Ual has airport standby, always converting lc to sc, commuter clause sucks compared to aa, can only drop to 50hrs at ual and its megabase is SFO so unless you live on the west coast forget about it.

Not digging on ual, just showing that aa isnt near as bad as aa guys think it is. Plus no hat at AA. Now let me go back to figuring out what to spend my profit sharing on this year: tube socks or underwear.

Uhhh, SFO is a junior base, not a mega base. More pilots based in ORD/IAH/EWR than SFO and if my Atlas is still believable, none of those domiciles are on the Weat Coast. Denver is growing and IAD is growing as well. Not larger than SFO but getting junior. LAX/GUM/CLE stagnant

AAfng
12-13-2019, 10:54 AM
You people and your ďfactsĒ. You are right, sorry. How about mega vacancy base which would make LGA our mega vacancy base

Buzzlightyear
12-13-2019, 02:22 PM
As of right now, if you are a young guy or gal with less than five years seniority at AA and are offered a UAL or DAL class, you need to consider going.
This does not make sense.

Buzzlightyear
12-13-2019, 02:27 PM
The culture is far from Toxic at UA, in fact I think itís the best itís ever been. again I think that was an AA thing. The AA culture has been toxic since the 90s. US wasnít much better and the AWA merger made that worse.

Again I donít think it was driven by Kirby. I get why you all hate on him but Iv seen nothing but good since he has been at UA.
1. Oscar is in charge as of now and 2. wait for the scope busting fear bombs once Kirby is at the helm.

MasterOfPuppets
12-13-2019, 06:23 PM
1. Oscar is in charge as of now and 2. wait for the scope busting fear bombs once Kirby is at the helm.

Oscar is CEO but he is really just a figure head. Everyone at United knows Kirby has been running the show for a while now.

Oscar didnít know airlines he was a train guy. The first thing he did was improve employee moral and any good CEO could do that. He then went shopping for N airline guy and thatís when Kirby stepped in. As soon as Kirby stepped on property United exploded. Our route network got immediately stronger our domestic presence was boosted and we opened markets all over the world and grew like crazy.

If Parker would have left and Kirby had become the CEO at AA I would be leaving UA to work there. UA had two investors take control of the board and Wall Street was demanding we close IAD/DEN and LAX. United would be in really bad shape right now. AA giving up Kirby was a mistake.

As far as Kirbys bravado on RJs.....who cares? He has to go through me to get them, and I know where my vote stands. Iím not scared, and neither are any United pilots, of a guy who wants to get rid of SCOPE, he can tak all he wants. I never understood why your group hated him because he was doing his job, all CEOs say the same thing.

Buzzlightyear
12-13-2019, 10:49 PM
MOP fair enough.

rightside02
12-14-2019, 02:22 AM
Agree ... if scope gets relaxed itís out own dam fault ... he can ask and he can be denied .

mainlineAF
12-14-2019, 05:16 AM
Oscar is CEO but he is really just a figure head. Everyone at United knows Kirby has been running the show for a while now.



Oscar didnít know airlines he was a train guy. The first thing he did was improve employee moral and any good CEO could do that. He then went shopping for N airline guy and thatís when Kirby stepped in. As soon as Kirby stepped on property United exploded. Our route network got immediately stronger our domestic presence was boosted and we opened markets all over the world and grew like crazy.



If Parker would have left and Kirby had become the CEO at AA I would be leaving UA to work there. UA had two investors take control of the board and Wall Street was demanding we close IAD/DEN and LAX. United would be in really bad shape right now. AA giving up Kirby was a mistake.



As far as Kirbys bravado on RJs.....who cares? He has to go through me to get them, and I know where my vote stands. Iím not scared, and neither are any United pilots, of a guy who wants to get rid of SCOPE, he can tak all he wants. I never understood why your group hated him because he was doing his job, all CEOs say the same thing.



Hold up. Youíd give up however long youíve been at united to go to AA if Kirby became AA CEO? [emoji848][emoji848]

MasterOfPuppets
12-14-2019, 07:53 AM
Hold up. Youíd give up however long youíve been at united to go to AA if Kirby became AA CEO? [emoji848][emoji848]

If it wasnít for Kirby we would be in really bad shape at UA right now. Between Tilton burning the furniture and Smizek bowing down to the pressures of wall street the amount of damage that was done to UA over the last 2 decades was dang near devastating. Put on top of that the two activist investors that got on the board......United would be a really bad place right now.

Oscar fixed the moral and finished the merger and Kirby got United back to growing and collecting its rightful market share. There are plenty of articles out there that describe haw bad things were and how good things are getting now. Kirby took an airline that was circling the drain and in 3 years closed the gap on DL in all metrics. UA is a proud company again and I think it will continue going in that direction.

So to answer your question if it wasnít for Kirby I may not have a choice but to join AA. If Kirby was given the reigns at AA and he grew it like he did at UA, AA would have been an unstoppable powerhouse. AA would be fighting DL at the top and UA would be shrinking to profitability while closing hubs:rolleyes:. A down turn would have killed us.

SaturnV
12-14-2019, 08:40 AM
If it wasnít for Kirby we would be in really bad shape at UA right now. Between Tilton burning the furniture and Smizek bowing down to the pressures of wall street the amount of damage that was done to UA over the last 2 decades was dang near devastating. Put on top of that the two activist investors that got on the board......United would be a really bad place right now.

Oscar fixed the moral and finished the merger and Kirby got United back to growing and collecting its rightful market share. There are plenty of articles out there that describe haw bad things were and how good things are getting now. Kirby took an airline that was circling the drain and in 3 years closed the gap on DL in all metrics. UA is a proud company again and I think it will continue going in that direction.

So to answer your question if it wasnít for Kirby I may not have a choice but to join AA. If Kirby was given the reigns at AA and he grew it like he did at UA, AA would have been an unstoppable powerhouse. AA would be fighting DL at the top and UA would be shrinking to profitability while closing hubs:rolleyes:. A down turn would have killed us.

Putting down the UAL/Kirby kool-aid for minute might not be a terrible idea. Iím not sure the demand for the United brand is anywhere near the demand for the Delta brand right now.

But if United really is this highly coveted, desirable, industry force that pax canít imagine flying anyone other than United, please excuse my ignorance for not seeing it.

You would have ďno choice but to join AAĒ I would love to know what Pilot Recruitmentís reaction would have been in this dream scenario when you called to tell them mismanagement at UAL was forcing you to come over and when to expect to see you in one of their newhire classes.

MasterOfPuppets
12-14-2019, 08:55 AM
Putting down the UAL/Kirby kool-aid for minute might not be a terrible idea. Iím not sure the demand for the United brand is anywhere near the demand for the Delta brand right now.

But if United really is this highly coveted, desirable, industry force that pax canít imagine flying anyone other than United, please excuse my ignorance for not seeing it.

You would have ďno choice but to join AAĒ I would love to know what Pilot Recruitmentís reaction would have been in this dream scenario when you called to tell them mismanagement at UAL was forcing you to come over and when to expect to see you in one of their newhire classes.

I didnít say any of that......

AAL24
12-14-2019, 08:55 AM
If I had less than 5 years seniority at AA I would consider jumping ship. 900 retirements/year at an airline with major issues or 600 retirements/year at a thriving airline growing 5% year after year. Seems like a no brainer to me. AAís last stronghold was bought out from under them with the LATAM deal.

Parker either fights back or burns the furniture for the next decade. He never seemed like a manager who likes growing the airline organically so Iím guessing AA flounders to the point of being a deep #3 and then announces a merger with JetBlue or Alaska to save the company. Seniority battle ensues, etc etc. Itís the only play Parker knows and it makes the guys/gals at the top very wealthy.


I think Jamie Baker said it best a couple years ago...
ďWe all remember a time when United couldnít punch its way out of a paper bag, when they were the perennial last-place member of the big three,Ē Baker said, as he questioned American CEO Doug Parker. ďWhat Iím being asked right now from investors is whether American has now simply stepped into the shoes that United once occupied.Ē

ďMaybe that is simply the construct of the industry going forward,Ē Baker said. ďYouíre going to have one chronic outperformer, letís call that Delta, in fairness. You have the silver medalist, letís call it United, and then inevitably American brings up the rear. So, how do you push back on that?Ē

American executives have already spent much of the call outlining Americanís favorable prospects and Parker did not reiterate them in response to Bakerís question. Rather, he declared, ďWe vehemently disagree.Ē

Baker, seemingly unimpressed, wrote in a July 31 report that, ďAmerican did a poor job defending its longer-term potential as part of the Big Three construct.Ē

https://www.google.com/amp/s/www.forbes.com/sites/tedreed/2018/08/06/has-american-slipped-behind-united-to-become-the-number-three-airline-a-top-analyst-says-it-has/amp/

Hueypilot
12-14-2019, 09:05 AM
Iím not a Parker hater per se (heís a CEO that does CEO-y things...thatís his job). But heís not particularly good at running a highly competitive airline. Heís OK-ish at muddling through, and that was just fine at AW and Airways. But now that the industry has consolidated, the company needs to be thinking ahead. Time for Parker to go and get replaced with someone with a little boldness and vision.

SaturnV
12-14-2019, 09:15 AM
I didnít say any of that......

Just re-read your post. You are correct you said closed the gap on Delta with the regards to METRICS. I mistakenly just read closed the ďgap on DeltaĒ. I appologize.

Iím still not sure what you meant by ďif it wasnít for Kirby you may have been forced to join AAĒ were you implying that if UA went under you would have a job at AA waiting for you? Anyways Iím probably reading too much into that. I wonít derail things further. Carry-on.

MasterOfPuppets
12-14-2019, 09:29 AM
Just re-read your post. You are correct you said closed the gap on Delta with the regards to METRICS. I mistakenly just read closed the ďgap on DeltaĒ. I appologize.

Iím still not sure what you meant by ďif it wasnít for Kirby you may have been forced to join AAĒ were you implying that if UA went under you would have a job at AA waiting for you? Anyways Iím probably reading too much into that. I wonít derail things further. Carry-on.

You are correct if United went under I wouldnít expect AA to just hire me. It was tongue and cheek and just a flip on this thread title.

Buzzlightyear
12-14-2019, 03:29 PM
https://stockcharts.com/h-sc/ui?s=AAL&p=D&yr=1&mn=2&dy=0&id=p67355148351

And the downtrend continues.

R57 relay
12-15-2019, 04:44 AM
For years and years UA couldn't hit its rear with both hands despite having a great network. Most unhappy group of pilots I'd ever had on the jumpseat. Maybe now is their time. I never liked Scooter, but he seems to be doing well there-maybe it was low hanging fruit that others mismanaged.

In the end everyone has to make their own career decisions because they live with the outcome.

A few guys that left US Airways now wish they had stayed, but they thought it was the best move at the time.

Name User
12-15-2019, 08:05 PM
I sat next to a guy commuting in 2012 or so that had just resigned from UAL to retire at number 50 in XX years and instead quit and went to a ME carrier to work in their training department.

Then Oscar was brought in and suddenly they found their rudder and starting rowing again.

You just never know.

terminal
12-20-2019, 08:54 AM
I left UAL for aa. 900+ retirements per year cant be beat. Ual has airport standby, always converting lc to sc, commuter clause sucks compared to aa, can only drop to 50hrs at ual and its megabase is SFO so unless you live on the west coast forget about it.

Not digging on ual, just showing that aa isnt near as bad as aa guys think it is. Plus no hat at AA. Now let me go back to figuring out what to spend my profit sharing on this year: tube socks or underwear.

You can drop down to zero now. An LOA was put out about 2 years ago.

Donít disagree about chasing the seniority. Reserve is hit or miss. Yes we have field STBY, but as a full time reserve, Iíve only done it twice-also hit or miss. We need improvements in our reserve rules. I donít know what your commuter policy is, but I donít have a problem with ours, two flights, canít get on the first, call scheduling-sometimes they positive space you, sometimes they call in a reserve.

Iím not sure what you mean by mega base. You can go pretty much anywhere in the system within 6 months now.