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View Full Version : Future of AA?


fenix1
12-19-2019, 06:58 AM
Questions regarding AA’s intermediate-to-long term future seem to be on the rise (balance sheet concerns, more operational & maintenance issues/unnecessary policies & procedures, less customer service/overall morale/relationship between working groups & management, etc). But many still see the company as too large to fail (especially in the post-merger landscape) and obviously there’s tons of opportunities for pilots. Crystal ball time, but how solid do you perceive AA’s future to be over the next 30-ish years?


panpanpan
12-19-2019, 07:15 AM
Questions regarding AA’s intermediate-to-long term future seem to be on the rise (balance sheet concerns, more operational & maintenance issues/unnecessary policies & procedures, less customer service/overall morale/relationship between working groups & management, etc). But many still see the company as too large to fail (especially in the post-merger landscape) and obviously there’s tons of opportunities for pilots. Crystal ball time, but how solid do you perceive AA’s future to be over the next 30-ish years?


Most likely a staple to the bottom of JetBlue’s seniority list when they merge.

Excargodog
12-19-2019, 07:26 AM
Too big to fail but I expect it will flounder for awhile until there are some management changes.

Competent management in this business is harder to come by than most people realize - perhaps why Canadian startup Jetlines is suing Neeleman for what they regard as his poaching of their CEO Lukas Johnson.


flyinawa
12-19-2019, 08:01 AM
It’s a cyclical industry and every company gets their turn in the barrel. Today’s media darling is tomorrow’s butt-of-all-jokes. Management teams come and go and I’m hoping someday soon we get leadership that is less concerned with the shareholders and more concerned with the passengers. Time will tell.

Happyflyer
12-19-2019, 11:40 AM
I wouldn't be worried, Richard Anderson, and now Scot Kirby have show how fast things can can change.

United was literally defending itself against a hedge fund buying shares and diverting cash flow.

Their plan is seems solid, invest more in their profitable hubs, consolidate widebody flying.

As boomers retire with disposable income, the classic model of needing heavy business routes with large corporate accounts could be more dated. They claim they tried this in Asia and it was a money pit, and that was when Kirby was at AA.

They really just need to trim middle mgmt, and oil the current machine better.

drinksonme
12-19-2019, 12:20 PM
I wouldn't be worried, Richard Anderson, and now Scot Kirby have show how fast things can can change.

United was literally defending itself against a hedge fund buying shares and diverting cash flow.

Their plan is seems solid, invest more in their profitable hubs, consolidate widebody flying.

As boomers retire with disposable income, the classic model of needing heavy business routes with large corporate accounts could be more dated. They claim they tried this in Asia and it was a money pit, and that was when Kirby was at AA.

They really just need to trim middle mgmt, and oil the current machine better.

What has Kirby done at United that is so innovative? He did exactly what he did at AWA, US Airways, and AA. He knows how to network and utilize the equipment. That’s all well and good, but he didn’t do anything revolutionary at United. It just shows how inept UAL was. Now I will give him credit, he made AA look like idiots for going with Vasu over him on Networking. Jury is still out on Isom over him to be the leader at AA. AND ISOM MIGHT NEVER GET IT (praying for our sake).

Kirby is abrasive, self-absorbed, and very arrogant. AA BOD didn’t like that about him. He’s smart as hell though and it was a good move by him to go to United when AA turned away. Munoz was on borrowed time after the heart transplant as the CEO, and Kirby knew he could get a shot quickly.

Yet Kirby is a creature of habit too. He has helped United, but now has pushed his way into negotiations and is trying to force his vision of RJ’s everywhere. He is attacking UAL’s ALPA’s scope, and the union rank and file are not pleased. So he is doing what he’s always done. Good networking, good utilization, fights labor and trys to kill scope. In the process, as he’s done in the past, all the good he has done is erased when he continues to battle labor. Any morale boost they had from all his good work for the airline, is turning to bad morale cause of his fascination with scope and RJ’s. They are completely at a standstill on negotiations cause he stepped in and asked for scope changes right at the very end. He can’t just be satisfied with the success of the airline. He has to dominate his unions (which he sees as rivals and not partners) as part of his success. He is old school thought process.

Name User
12-19-2019, 12:24 PM
Operationally speaking the company is firing on all cylinders after the summer of ridiculousness. They changed management's bonus structure to be 50% operational and guess what suddenly we stopped canceling. I notice even our maintenance folks seem to have a minor fire lit under them. Ground handling however seems to be hit and miss.

AAfng
12-19-2019, 12:52 PM
Chapter 7 by the end of 2019

Whatever man

nAAtive
12-19-2019, 02:16 PM
Questions regarding AA’s intermediate-to-long term future seem to be on the rise (balance sheet concerns, more operational & maintenance issues/unnecessary policies & procedures, less customer service/overall morale/relationship between working groups & management, etc). But many still see the company as too large to fail (especially in the post-merger landscape) and obviously there’s tons of opportunities for pilots. Crystal ball time, but how solid do you perceive AA’s future to be over the next 30-ish years?
You clearly didn’t read any of the last quarters calls. They addressed several of your questions.

Smoke Toliet
12-19-2019, 02:36 PM
What has Kirby done at United that is so innovative? He did exactly what he did at AWA, US Airways, and AA. He knows how to network and utilize the equipment. That’s all well and good, but he didn’t do anything revolutionary at United. It just shows how inept UAL was. Now I will give him credit, he made AA look like idiots for going with Vasu over him on Networking. Jury is still out on Isom over him to be the leader at AA. AND ISOM MIGHT NEVER GET IT (praying for our sake).

Kirby is abrasive, self-absorbed, and very arrogant. AA BOD didn’t like that about him. He’s smart as hell though and it was a good move by him to go to United when AA turned away. Munoz was on borrowed time after the heart transplant as the CEO, and Kirby knew he could get a shot quickly.

Yet Kirby is a creature of habit too. He has helped United, but now has pushed his way into negotiations and is trying to force his vision of RJ’s everywhere. He is attacking UAL’s ALPA’s scope, and the union rank and file are not pleased. So he is doing what he’s always done. Good networking, good utilization, fights labor and trys to kill scope. In the process, as he’s done in the past, all the good he has done is erased when he continues to battle labor. Any morale boost they had from all his good work for the airline, is turning to bad morale cause of his fascination with scope and RJ’s. They are completely at a standstill on negotiations cause he stepped in and asked for scope changes right at the very end. He can’t just be satisfied with the success of the airline. He has to dominate his unions (which he sees as rivals and not partners) as part of his success. He is old school thought process.

Spot on with Kirby and UAL. He did the same thing here in 2014 with a last minute scope grab from 85 seats. It killed any chance of momentum and building trust with the pilots going forward. And look where we are now.
Glad he’s gone.

Varks
12-19-2019, 03:33 PM
Near term outlook.

The Good. Making money hand over fist. Expanding network. Hiring pilots at projected record pace. Passengers have few choices. High cost of airplane acquisition is behind us.

The Bad. Continue wallowing. Morale is low among many work groups and contracts are up now or very soon. Our operation has seen some improvement as of late but I would guess all airlines have done better this fall.

The Ugly. Plenty of Us with one foot out the door and I have enough money but will ride it out syndrome. This results in a “I don’t give a crap attitude” and you’ve beat me up so bad that I can take it and I will dish it out right back at you. I get a real sense of a short fuse for our contract that is amendable Jan. 1. It appears the company is looking for a fight and we are more than willing. Let the shenanigans begin. It’s not fun working like this. We need an industry leading contract and will not settle for less.

Future. Anyone’s guess. In my years at AA it has been give give give. If we get a contract it will be my first normal non bankrupt non concessionary deal in the 21 years I have been here. If I told anyone when I was hired that I would not be part of a normal contract agreement for that long I would have been laughed at.

Suggestion. Save more than you think is possible and then you can sit back and watch. The job improves tremendously when you don’t owe money and you have a large nest egg in the bank. I couldn’t afford a Cadillac every month but I could buy a civic a month.

Al Czervik
12-19-2019, 05:59 PM
Let the shenanigans begin.

Always been my motto.

flyinawa
12-19-2019, 07:31 PM
I swear to God I'm going to pistol whip the next guy who says, " Shenanigans."


;)

fenix1
12-19-2019, 09:11 PM
Surely, you don’t mean to insinuate that quarterly calls and other investor relations’ communications are nothing but the truth & whole truth... (Obligatory response: “Don’t call me ‘Shirley’”...)

Every company/organization puts a certain amount of lipstick on the pig, if you will, but that’s often tough to pass off as complete/accurate/legitimate to those on the inside living operational reality every day, hence the post seeking perspective from those of you right in the thick of it currently.

You clearly didn’t read any of the last quarters calls. They addressed several of your questions.

OVBIII
12-20-2019, 03:46 AM
I swear to God I'm going to pistol whip the next guy who says, " Shenanigans."


;)

Hey Farva what's the name of that restaurant you like with all the goofy ******* on the walls and the mozzarella sticks?

Happyflyer
12-20-2019, 05:42 AM
What has Kirby done at United that is so innovative? He did exactly what he did at AWA, US Airways, and AA. He knows how to network and utilize the equipment. That’s all well and good, but he didn’t do anything revolutionary at United. It just shows how inept UAL was. Now I will give him credit, he made AA look like idiots for going with Vasu over him on Networking. Jury is still out on Isom over him to be the leader at AA. AND ISOM MIGHT NEVER GET IT (praying for our sake).

Kirby is abrasive, self-absorbed, and very arrogant. AA BOD didn’t like that about him. He’s smart as hell though and it was a good move by him to go to United when AA turned away. Munoz was on borrowed time after the heart transplant as the CEO, and Kirby knew he could get a shot quickly.

Yet Kirby is a creature of habit too. He has helped United, but now has pushed his way into negotiations and is trying to force his vision of RJ’s everywhere. He is attacking UAL’s ALPA’s scope, and the union rank and file are not pleased. So he is doing what he’s always done. Good networking, good utilization, fights labor and trys to kill scope. In the process, as he’s done in the past, all the good he has done is erased when he continues to battle labor. Any morale boost they had from all his good work for the airline, is turning to bad morale cause of his fascination with scope and RJ’s. They are completely at a standstill on negotiations cause he stepped in and asked for scope changes right at the very end. He can’t just be satisfied with the success of the airline. He has to dominate his unions (which he sees as rivals and not partners) as part of his success. He is old school thought process.

They were lagging AA in 2015 by 300m when both made north of 7B in profit.

In 2018 United beat AA, 3.2B to AA's 2.7B, so the spread flipped, increased and at tighter margins. I think that is impressive, and is a result of SK.

The OP understands contracts are hard fought everywhere.
SK probbally demanded scope at the end so the pilots can see the price of that concession, and tempt them to vote against their principles.
I'am not in their loop, I guess if they negotiated the scope section and closed it as complete that would be different than saving it for last.

Whiskey4
12-20-2019, 06:56 AM
Future. Anyone’s guess. In my years at AA it has been give give give. If we get a contract it will be my first normal non bankrupt non concessionary deal in the 21 years I have been here. If I told anyone when I was hired that I would not be part of a normal contract agreement for that long I would have been laughed at.

If we end up with an ILC you can be sure that a bone crushing recession will happen shortly thereafter. That seems to be the way these contracts phases work out these days...