Airline Pilot Forums

Airline Pilot Forums was designed to be a community where working airline pilots can share ideas and information about the aviation field. In the forum you will find information about major and regional airline carriers, career training, interview and job seeker help, finance, and living the airline pilot lifestyle.




Tyrion
01-26-2020, 05:11 PM
Been reading some of the recent AA class drops and there seems to be a significant uptick in hires from other airlines to fill their classes of 60. Not sure how many are military with regional time to get recurrent, but I've seen completely non-mil ExpressJet, Compass, JetBlue.

Looks like the theories that Envoy will increase flow or AA will increase OTS hiring from Envoy are not playing out. Bigger classes just mean that more people will be on the seniority list before we reach our flow dates.


Varsity
01-26-2020, 06:04 PM
Been reading some of the recent AA class drops and there seems to be a significant uptick in hires from other airlines to fill their classes of 60. Not sure how many are military with regional time to get recurrent, but I've seen completely non-mil ExpressJet, Compass, JetBlue.

Looks like the theories that Envoy will increase flow or AA will increase OTS hiring from Envoy are not playing out. Bigger classes just mean that more people will be on the seniority list before we reach our flow dates.


Yep, hence why I'm trying to get out anywhere possible ASAP. If you take a look at the resignations on the reserve lists, I'm not the only one.

dera
01-26-2020, 09:40 PM
Yep, hence why I'm trying to get out anywhere possible ASAP. If you take a look at the resignations on the reserve lists, I'm not the only one.

Just wait, the resignation numbers are pretty awesome.


HalyardJammer
01-27-2020, 12:33 AM
Just wait, the resignation numbers are pretty awesome.
Have a number for the curios?

THKooj
01-27-2020, 02:56 AM
Been reading some of the recent AA class drops and there seems to be a significant uptick in hires from other airlines to fill their classes of 60. Not sure how many are military with regional time to get recurrent, but I've seen completely non-mil ExpressJet, Compass, JetBlue.

Looks like the theories that Envoy will increase flow or AA will increase OTS hiring from Envoy are not playing out. Bigger classes just mean that more people will be on the seniority list before we reach our flow dates.

Not real sure what you are trying to get at here. You are wrong on a couple of points at minimum. One. AA is having ZERO trouble hiring candidates that fit the culture with strong resumes. They are selecting only the best OTS resumes for review. Two. Just because there may be a stronger civilian OTS presence at the moment, means nothing in terms of what is happening at Envoy. Envoy still has a VERY strong stack of resumes JUST from guys that want to apply when they are finally accepted into the pipeline. The pipeline itself is currently full to overflowing with only the highest quality candidates selected carefully by the Envoy recruiting team. So, that being said, there are more than enough out there to increase the flow to a much higher percentage and not even notice a blip on the radar.

Chato
01-27-2020, 03:37 AM
Have a number for the curios?

this is somethng ALPA should be communicating to the pilot group, unfortunately they barely send out emails now with this info. I bet the vacancy bidding guide will be sent out the day before it closes.

CLE to IAH
01-27-2020, 04:10 AM
Yep, hence why I'm trying to get out anywhere possible ASAP. If you take a look at the resignations on the reserve lists, I'm not the only one.
how can you tell? Whatís the code?

DoNoHarm
01-27-2020, 04:15 AM
Been reading some of the recent AA class drops and there seems to be a significant uptick in hires from other airlines to fill their classes of 60. Not sure how many are military with regional time to get recurrent, but I've seen completely non-mil ExpressJet, Compass, JetBlue.

Looks like the theories that Envoy will increase flow or AA will increase OTS hiring from Envoy are not playing out. Bigger classes just mean that more people will be on the seniority list before we reach our flow dates.

4 OTS hires from PSA in the next class at AA (all civilian). Several more with interviews. Have heard of a few from PDT with interviews as well. I think Envoy will start sending more to AA around the flow as well pretty soon.

FLT000
01-27-2020, 04:17 AM
Not real sure what you are trying to get at here. You are wrong on a couple of points at minimum. One. AA is having ZERO trouble hiring candidates that fit the culture with strong resumes. They are selecting only the best OTS resumes for review. Two. Just because there may be a stronger civilian OTS presence at the moment, means nothing in terms of what is happening at Envoy. Envoy still has a VERY strong stack of resumes JUST from guys that want to apply when they are finally accepted into the pipeline. The pipeline itself is currently full to overflowing with only the highest quality candidates selected carefully by the Envoy recruiting team. So, that being said, there are more than enough out there to increase the flow to a much higher percentage and not even notice a blip on the radar.

This has Nothing to do with the OPs original thoughts.

Reread.

pitchattitude
01-27-2020, 05:02 AM
This has Nothing to do with the OPs original thoughts.

Reread.
ThKooj never lets any post go by that he thinks he can drown in KoolAid and make it sound like is a reason Envoy is the greatest. Doesnít matter if the OP has nothing to do with his statements.

texex
01-27-2020, 05:36 AM
how can you tell? Whatís the code?

the ďcodeĒ would generally be RE - resigned.
Note: look for a straight RE and not an RE that has a bunch of training events in front of it

AB321Driver
01-27-2020, 08:18 AM
January 21, 2020 Class 20-02

34 Mil
09 Envoy
06 Piedmont
05 PSA
11 Other Airline
01 Corporate

Latest AA Class. Looking greAAt!

Cyio
01-27-2020, 08:28 AM
January 21, 2020 Class 20-02

34 Mil
09 Envoy
06 Piedmont
05 PSA
11 Other Airline
01 Corporate

Latest AA Class. Looking greAAt!
well that isnít very encouraging.

Cyio
01-27-2020, 08:40 AM
this is somethng ALPA should be communicating to the pilot group, unfortunately they barely send out emails now with this info. I bet the vacancy bidding guide will be sent out the day before it closes.
No, instead we get emails telling us how they all sat in a circle j**k and voted each other into various positions. Fascinating.

NoValueAviator
01-27-2020, 08:42 AM
The flow is still going to be great for mid-2016 hires and the closer you are to that, the better it's going to be. But they clearly feel they've staffed their regional feed adequately at this point and are now comfortable with devaluing the flow.

Dixie320
01-27-2020, 09:17 AM
In 2019, there were 498 flows.
2020 preliminary goals anticipate 432 flows.

OTS in 2019 = 429 (all OTS from all sources including WO guys interviewing outside the flow)
OTS 2020 goals = 966.

Excargodog
01-27-2020, 09:57 AM
The flow is and always has been a mechanism for staffing the regionals, NOT FOR STAFFING AA. They will keep flow as low as possible - as long as it remains an adequate enough carrot that they are continuing to adequately staffing the regionals. They have no shortage of qualified people looking to be hired OTS - not at present anyway. Perhaps in a few more years that weíll will dry up, but itís plenty deep right now.

Tyrion
01-27-2020, 10:21 AM
Not real sure what you are trying to get at here. You are wrong on a couple of points at minimum. One. AA is having ZERO trouble hiring candidates that fit the culture with strong resumes. They are selecting only the best OTS resumes for review. Two. Just because there may be a stronger civilian OTS presence at the moment, means nothing in terms of what is happening at Envoy. Envoy still has a VERY strong stack of resumes JUST from guys that want to apply when they are finally accepted into the pipeline. The pipeline itself is currently full to overflowing with only the highest quality candidates selected carefully by the Envoy recruiting team. So, that being said, there are more than enough out there to increase the flow to a much higher percentage and not even notice a blip on the radar.

I probably shouldn't be feeding the troll. He reminds me of this guy www.youtube.com/watch?v=w67dhHLUK3M (https://www.youtube.com/watch?v=w67dhHLUK3M)

Back to the point. In recent years, AA classes were about 50/50 mil and flow. If there was an OTS hire, it was either from a W/O, or a prior mil who did a touch and go at a regional airline of his convenience. There were practically zero hires from other airlines. This gave credence to the recruiters saying "if you want AA, you need to go through a W/O, even if you want to get hired OTS."

That worked great when AA was hiring around 80 per month. You take about 20 flows and a couple OTS from the 3 W/Os, and 20 mil hires, and you fill up the classes. Republic, Skywest, ExpressJet need not apply. Powerball had better odds than getting hired at AA from those places.

Now that AA is hiring 100+ a month, and the flows have been reduced, the question was how will AA fill classes.
A. Increase military hires --- doubtful as that pipeline is running at capacity with guys having CJOs a year prior to getting out.
B. Increase Flow and OTS from W/Os -- always seemed doubtful as they would be pulling from their regional feed.
C. Increase OTS from other regionals. -- always seemed most likely as that is a large pool of qualified pilots, many who can be hired without hurting the regional feed to AA.

I would like option B to be the case. Heck since we are all the best of the best, just staple us to the bottom of the AA seniority list and call it good. Do that and I'd happily keep flying the 145 until my seniority can hold Airbus. It won't take 5 years. However, sane people know that Envoy can't send an additional 20 CAs to AA every month, it wouldn't be a blip.

Every AA new hire outside of the W/Os devalues the benefit of working at the W/Os. Now that they started hiring from other places, it seems that being at Envoy is no longer an advantage to our OTS chances.

Cyio
01-27-2020, 10:29 AM
I probably shouldn't be feeding the troll. He reminds me of this guy www.youtube.com/watch?v=w67dhHLUK3M (https://www.youtube.com/watch?v=w67dhHLUK3M)

Back to the point. In recent years, AA classes were about 50/50 mil and flow. If there was an OTS hire, it was either from a W/O, or a prior mil who did a touch and go at a regional airline of his convenience. There were practically zero hires from other airlines. This gave credence to the recruiters saying "if you want AA, you need to go through a W/O, even if you want to get hired OTS."

That worked great when AA was hiring around 80 per month. You take about 20 flows and a couple OTS from the 3 W/Os, and 20 mil hires, and you fill up the classes. Republic, Skywest, ExpressJet need not apply. Powerball had better odds than getting hired at AA from those places.

Now that AA is hiring 100+ a month, and the flows have been reduced, the question was how will AA fill classes.
A. Increase military hires --- doubtful as that pipeline is running at capacity with guys having CJOs a year prior to getting out.
B. Increase Flow and OTS from W/Os -- always seemed doubtful as they would be pulling from their regional feed.
C. Increase OTS from other regionals. -- always seemed most likely as that is a large pool of qualified pilots, many who can be hired without hurting the regional feed to AA.

I would like option B to be the case. Heck since we are all the best of the best, just staple us to the bottom of the AA seniority list and call it good. Do that and I'd happily keep flying the 145 until my seniority can hold Airbus. It won't take 5 years. However, sane people know that Envoy can't send an additional 20 CAs to AA every month, it wouldn't be a blip.

Every AA new hire outside of the W/Os devalues the benefit of working at the W/Os. Now that they started hiring from other places, it seems that being at Envoy is no longer an advantage to our OTS chances.
All valid points. I have two offers from ULCCís now and trying to decide if I want to bail or
not. Tough decisions indeed. Sure wish our union was more open to communicating with us regarding issues such as flow times.

tommy2times
01-27-2020, 10:38 AM
Just wait, the resignation numbers are pretty awesome.


Great news indeed! I have been hearing February will be insane; with that being the case any chance we all get bonuses or pay raises to keep us here?

dera
01-27-2020, 10:46 AM
Have a number for the curios?
im not in a position to publish them. We are talking almost 2:1 attrition v.flow ratio.

Cyio
01-27-2020, 11:11 AM
im not in a position to publish them. We are talking almost 2:1 attrition v.flow ratio.
Thatís great, assuming they are all sub 700 seniority numbers. Doesnít do anyone any good otherwise.

AV8R72
01-27-2020, 11:19 AM
Thatís great, assuming they are all sub 700 seniority numbers. Doesnít do anyone any good otherwise.
sub 2000 helps me lol

Cyio
01-27-2020, 11:25 AM
sub 2000 helps me lol
I mean yes, you are technically correct. My point was that we need the senior captains to flow or leave to attrition faster, thatís what will get you to AA faster. Sure military FOís bailing after a year and a 121 ride experience help company seniority but wonít do much for increasing flow times.

Varsity
01-27-2020, 11:27 AM
im not in a position to publish them. We are talking almost 2:1 attrition v.flow ratio.

Can we ramp up union communication now that the positions are full? Tom did a good job when he was doing it.

dera
01-27-2020, 11:38 AM
Can we ramp up union communication now that the positions are full? Tom did a good job when he was doing it.

I heard from a credible source that this is the intent.

Cyio
01-27-2020, 11:43 AM
I heard from a credible source that this is the intent.
Hate to break it to you Dera but you ARE the credible source on this forum lol.

THKooj
01-27-2020, 12:22 PM
All valid points. I have two offers from ULCCís now and trying to decide if I want to bail or
not. Tough decisions indeed. Sure wish our union was more open to communicating with us regarding issues such as flow times.

I think you realize just how valuable working at Envoy is with the flow now that youíve gone out slumming and applied to some lowball outfits. Makes you realize how good you have it here. Thus the reason for the waffling now.

tommy2times
01-27-2020, 12:26 PM
I think you realize just how valuable working at Envoy is with the flow now that youíve gone out slumming and applied to some lowball outfits. Makes you realize how good you have it here. Thus the reason for the waffling now.

THKooj, I am with you man but I need to make a living NOW bruh, I need a girlfriend and canít afford one at these pay rates.

Cyio
01-27-2020, 03:51 PM
I think you realize just how valuable working at Envoy is with the flow now that youíve gone out slumming and applied to some lowball outfits. Makes you realize how good you have it here. Thus the reason for the waffling now.
No, no thatís not it, at least not in the way you are framing it.

SkyKing2019
01-27-2020, 06:55 PM
January 21, 2020 Class 20-02

34 Mil
09 Envoy
06 Piedmont
05 PSA
11 Other Airline
01 Corporate

Latest AA Class. Looking greAAt!


SCORE:

OTS = 46

WHOLLY (x3) = 20

senecacaptain
01-27-2020, 07:41 PM
SCORE:

OTS = 46

WHOLLY (x3) = 20

66 people ?

approx 1/3 mil, 1/3 civilian non-flow, 1/3 flow (approx)

Doesn't seem too bad

highfarfast
01-27-2020, 10:06 PM
66 people ?

approx 1/3 mil, 1/3 civilian non-flow, 1/3 flow (approx)

Doesn't seem too bad

Some people see what they want to see.

THKooj
01-28-2020, 03:32 AM
66 people ?

approx 1/3 mil, 1/3 civilian non-flow, 1/3 flow (approx)

Doesn't seem too bad

Dang good assessment of the big picture. It's a great time to be an Envoy pilot.

pitchattitude
01-28-2020, 04:49 AM
Some people see what they want to see.

How ironic that THKooj proved your point AFTER you posted this. I guess drowning in KoolAid will do that.

Dang good assessment of the big picture. It's a great time to be an Envoy pilot.

pitchattitude
01-28-2020, 04:50 AM
66 people ?

approx 1/3 mil, 1/3 civilian non-flow, 1/3 flow (approx)

Doesn't seem too bad
Your assessment skills are right up there with your math.

Cujo665
01-28-2020, 04:59 AM
this is somethng ALPA should be communicating to the pilot group, unfortunately they barely send out emails now with this info. I bet the vacancy bidding guide will be sent out the day before it closes.

AA projection 2020 will be:

off the street 69%
envoy 17%
PSA/PDT 14%

better shot of being street hired from elsewhere. It used to be 65% from Envoy alone. Now itís a scam running on its past record. 65% of all new hires down to 17%....

THKooj
01-28-2020, 05:17 AM
AA projection 2020 will be:

off the street 69%
envoy 17%
PSA/PDT 14%

better shot of being street hired from elsewhere. It used to be 65% from Envoy alone. Now itís a scam running on its past record. 65% of all new hires down to 17%....

This is blatantly false information and just part of a narrative that a few bitter individuals are trying to push. I note that you even stated that it was a "projection." Anyone can project anything they want whether it rings true or not is another story. The numbers you stated are far closer to OTS 61% ENY 23% and PSA/PDT 16%.

Slow2Final
01-28-2020, 05:20 AM
Anyone can project anything they want whether it rings true or not is another story.

Like most of the stuff you've been saying?

BeechPilot33
01-28-2020, 05:24 AM
The point is OTS civilian now out ranks the flow. So if AA doesnít increase flow it makes zero sense to get beat down at a WO with the worst American flying.

Cyio
01-28-2020, 05:51 AM
Dang good assessment of the big picture. It's a great time to be an Envoy pilot.
This is gold lol. I am now fully convinced you donít work for AA and are simply are management. You are not even reading what you are responding too.

Cyio
01-28-2020, 05:56 AM
This is blatantly false information and just part of a narrative that a few bitter individuals are trying to push. I note that you even stated that it was a "projection." Anyone can project anything they want whether it rings true or not is another story. The numbers you stated are far closer to OTS 61% ENY 23% and PSA/PDT 16%.
So his projections are wrong and yours are right? Even if true it still favors OTS hiring way more than it should. If this holds true give some good reasons for people to come here? There is simply no reason to hang around for a 5-8 year flow anymore. You would be better off going to any number of places for better pay, better qol and better management and simply applying to AA OTS.

This flow was nothing but a sham and excargodog was correct in that it had nothing to do with AA and all to do with tricking people into working under a bankruptcy contract to fill the holes at the wholly owned.

I just hope these potential candidates coming here learn this before getting locked in.

THKooj
01-28-2020, 05:59 AM
So his projections are wrong and yours are right? Even if true it still favors OTS hiring way more than it should. If this holds true give some good reasons for people to come here? There is simply no reason to hang around for a 5-8 year flow anymore. You would be better off going to any number of places for better pay, better qol and better management and simply applying to AA OTS.

This flow was nothing but a sham and excargodog was correct in that it had nothing to do with AA and all to do with tricking people into working under a bankruptcy contract to fill the holes at the wholly owned.

I just hope these potential candidates coming here learn this before getting locked in.

Oh really? Then do tell friend. If you genuinely feel this way, why are you hesitating on those LCC offers that you publicly discussed ad nauseam on these boards. I think I know why.

Cyio
01-28-2020, 06:03 AM
Oh really? Then do tell friend. If you genuinely feel this way, why are you hesitating on those LCC offers that you publicly discussed ad nauseam on these boards. I think I know why.
Why so dense? I specifically stated new candidates should look elsewhere.

If I was sitting at a five year flow date and had offers, this would be a no brainer and I would be gone.

THKooj
01-28-2020, 06:19 AM
Why so dense? I specifically stated new candidates should look elsewhere.

If I was sitting at a five year flow date and had offers, this would be a no brainer and I would be gone.

Thanks for making my point! If things were as bad as you say, you would be gone regardless of flow date. But nope. Not going anywhere. Content to trash talk and throw new hires under the bus.

Cyio
01-28-2020, 06:20 AM
Thanks for making my point! If things were as bad as you say, you would be gone regardless of flow date. But nope. Not going anywhere. Content to trash talk and throw new hires under the bus.
I donít have a five year flow. Nice try though. Also who said I am not gone and why do you get to determine the time frame at which I make that decision?

Again for the weak minded that canít grasp this, we all know who I am referring too, if you are looking at a five year flow or more, the options are better elsewhere.

rld1k
01-28-2020, 07:29 AM
Where is HR? How does a corporation allow a manager to post this nonsense? If envoy is doing so well with retention why is it the only airline with a manager on the forums pushing desperate propaganda?

tommy2times
01-28-2020, 08:04 AM
The Envoy has been ďthe nightmare of nightmaresĒ for me! I would choose MESA over this concentration camp any day. The culture here parallels that of North Korea, management being the government and the pilots being the beat down starving people.

BigZ
01-28-2020, 09:04 AM
The Envoy has been ďthe nightmare of nightmaresĒ for me! I would choose MESA over this concentration camp any day. The culture here parallels that of North Korea, management being the government and the pilots being the beat down starving people.
https://i.imgflip.com/3hrqbu.jpg

Cujo665
01-28-2020, 09:18 AM
This is blatantly false information and just part of a narrative that a few bitter individuals are trying to push. I note that you even stated that it was a "projection." Anyone can project anything they want whether it rings true or not is another story. The numbers you stated are far closer to OTS 61% ENY 23% and PSA/PDT 16%.


They’ve announced they plan to hire 1400 this year. Envoy flows 240 a year. That is 17%

When the flow was a good deal Eaglevoy had 50% of every new hire position, and in fact Envoy got closer to 65% one year. That is not what is happening now. The flow used to sell itself. Now it needs a company THStooj to puff it up and sell it.

skyemiles2
01-28-2020, 01:36 PM
The flow is and always has been a mechanism for staffing the regionals, NOT FOR STAFFING AA. They will keep flow as low as possible - as long as it remains an adequate enough carrot that they are continuing to adequately staffing the regionals. They have no shortage of qualified people looking to be hired OTS - not at present anyway. Perhaps in a few more years that weíll will dry up, but itís plenty deep right now.

Agreed. But given the state of our work rules, the flow is really the only thing that offset that. If they devalue the flow (as this is showing, and as I think we are all expecting) there would be very little reason for anyone to come here when they could make more money, have higher QOL, and still go to AA if they went elsewhere.

The only people the flow would still benefit are those who treat this like their part time job.

AA wonít fix this until they have to, of course, so as long as people keep piling in and classes are full, life is good for AA hiring and now worse for Envoy.

Lee 64
01-28-2020, 02:33 PM
Agreed. But given the state of our work rules, the flow is really the only thing that offset that. If they devalue the flow (as this is showing, and as I think we are all expecting) there would be very little reason for anyone to come here when they could make more money, have higher QOL, and still go to AA if they went elsewhere.

The only people the flow would still benefit are those who treat this like their part time job.

AA wonít fix this until they have to, of course, so as long as people keep piling in and classes are full, life is good for AA hiring and now worse for Envoy.

Evidently RW is telling new hires the flow will increase soon. Itís the only way their magic math makes sense. Iíve spent more time on here than I would like to admit in back in 2016/2017 everyone was saying the company saying 2.5 year upgrade and 5 year flow was impossible...now itís what is happening to those hired at that time

highfarfast
01-28-2020, 02:38 PM
Evidently RW is telling new hires the flow will increase soon. Itís the only way their magic math makes sense. Iíve spent more time on here than I would like to admit in back in 2016/2017 everyone was saying the company saying 2.5 year upgrade and 5 year flow was impossible...now itís what is happening to those hired at that time

Back then, the math made sense. Then they went on a year long hiring spree (weíre still hiring but not at the rates in 2017). Until most of those 2017 hires are gone, new hires are not going to see a 5 year flow.

Lee 64
01-28-2020, 02:55 PM
Back then, the math made sense. Then they went on a year long hiring spree (weíre still hiring but not at the rates in 2017). Until most of those 2017 hires are gone, new hires are not going to see a 5 year flow.

am I giving them too much credit thinking they may have foreseen the attention to the ULCCs?

senecacaptain
01-28-2020, 03:30 PM
I have no dog in this fight just an outside observer. But I believe SWA historically also hired 1/3 MIL, 1/3 Corporate, 1/3 Regionals, obviously the math is not perfect and a few outliers from various pilot groups but they seem to stick to that balance. Noted is the fact that SWA has no flow program.

If the previously mentioned AA numbers are accurate, and remain consistent, it will be refreshing.

skyemiles2
01-28-2020, 03:39 PM
am I giving them too much credit thinking they may have foreseen the attention to the ULCCs?

Unless attrition at all years of pre-flow seniority increases, I canít make their math work. The issue is in the 0-3 bucket, which is fairly stagnant and now filling with those 2017 hires.

Based on existing trends, the company is definitely low.

Itís a bit difficult for me to project when we canít get consistent data, so Iím hoping dera is right and they union will come through with that so we can see whatís up.

The only way the companyís math works is to increase the flow. And honestly, they should. If they degrade the flow, that sends a powerful message.

pitchattitude
01-28-2020, 06:17 PM
Unless attrition at all years of pre-flow seniority increases, I canít make their math work. The issue is in the 0-3 bucket, which is fairly stagnant and now filling with those 2017 hires.

Based on existing trends, the company is definitely low.

Itís a bit difficult for me to project when we canít get consistent data, so Iím hoping dera is right and they union will come through with that so we can see whatís up.

The only way the companyís math works is to increase the flow. And honestly, they should. If they degrade the flow, that sends a powerful message.
This is very much the case. IMHO, Envoy flow needs to be at least 30 per month. That number would not hurt Envoy and lend some credibility to the flow being worth SOMETHING. Increasing the flow might even make up the same number or more that will otherwise be lost through OAL attrition.

AV8R72
01-28-2020, 07:47 PM
This is very much the case. IMHO, Envoy flow needs to be at least 30 per month. That number would not hurt Envoy and lend some credibility to the flow being worth SOMETHING. Increasing the flow might even make up the same number or more that will otherwise be lost through OAL attrition.

As a guy with 6 months on property if I knew I had a flow date in 5 or less from DOH, I would stay unless another of the big 6 calls. As it stands now, my flow was last projected at 9 years... I would leave for Frontier, Spirit, or Jet Blue in 2-3 before I waited 6 more years.

what I worry about is that MQ canít stop the hemorrhages to ULCCs and tries to throttle the flow

highfarfast
01-28-2020, 08:34 PM
Unless attrition at all years of pre-flow seniority increases, I canít make their math work. The issue is in the 0-3 bucket, which is fairly stagnant and now filling with those 2017 hires.

Based on existing trends, the company is definitely low.

Itís a bit difficult for me to project when we canít get consistent data, so Iím hoping dera is right and they union will come through with that so we can see whatís up.

The only way the companyís math works is to increase the flow. And honestly, they should. If they degrade the flow, that sends a powerful message.

I donít see increasing the flow getting current new hires to a 5 year, or even 6 year flow because to do so Envoy would have to increase it to a rate I donít think they can sustain. And thatís not even considering the fact that higher the rate of flow, the lower the rate of outside attrition youíd get which minimizes the benefit of increasing the flow.

SkyKing2019
01-28-2020, 08:57 PM
The point is OTS civilian now out ranks the flow. So if AA doesnít increase flow it makes zero sense to get beat down at a WO with the worst American flying.


Concur with this assesment.

skyemiles2
01-29-2020, 03:13 AM
I donít see increasing the flow getting current new hires to a 5 year, or even 6 year flow because to do so Envoy would have to increase it to a rate I donít think they can sustain. And thatís not even considering the fact that higher the rate of flow, the lower the rate of outside attrition youíd get which minimizes the benefit of increasing the flow.

I wonít give numbers in the event it is really being considered (not holding my breath,) but I have calculated what theyíd need to do to get to those numbers. It wouldnít be unsustainable.

The benefit of doing this is they would reduce attrition, especially amongst new captains, and would lower training costs overall from an overall reduction in attrition. There would be a lot more people staying if their flow times dropped.

It would probably be a better situation for them, to be honest, in this environment, and having a more stable workforce for 5-6 years at a time and a strong pipeline of interested people (probably even amongst NECs.) And of course, the time to implement this would be *before* the bleeding gets critical instead of waiting for the bus to hit, which could jeopardize their ability to staff, depending on how long they wait, similar to what happened to and has plagued Horizon where they canít seem to get any captains from their glut of FOs.

There are still going to be those who want out in their first 1-3 years if something better (for them) comes up, so there will be some attrition regardless, but those arenít necessarily the costly people to lose.

UnprotectdPilot
01-29-2020, 03:35 AM
If they increased flow to 30/month, I'd be a 5.5 year flow (total time at company) without outside attrition. I'd consider holding out for AA or United if that were the case. However, I have a CJO from a ULCC and have another interview lined up. The only real benefit of going to AA is the widebody flying (which I'm agnostic about anyway) and the size of the network in terms of variety of flying and travel benefits. However, travel benefits themselves aren't waiting around and variety of flying, this is airline flying after all -- it's going to be relatively boring no matter what. That said, a bird in hand with career earnings north of $8 million at my age by going to a ULCC, waiting for AA does not excite me.

TL;DR The ULCCs are equally attractive to AA at this point, maybe even more so due to relative seniority to be gained by leaving now.

skyemiles2
01-29-2020, 03:36 AM
Please donít give numbers. Make them do their own math.

Cyio
01-29-2020, 04:55 AM
If they increased flow to 30/month, I'd be a 5.5 year flow (total time at company) without outside attrition. I'd consider holding out for AA or United if that were the case. However, I have a CJO from a ULCC and have another interview lined up. The only real benefit of going to AA is the widebody flying (which I'm agnostic about anyway) and the size of the network in terms of variety of flying and travel benefits. However, travel benefits themselves aren't waiting around and variety of flying, this is airline flying after all -- it's going to be relatively boring no matter what. That said, a bird in hand with career earnings north of $8 million at my age by going to a ULCC, waiting for AA does not excite me.

TL;DR The ULCCs are equally attractive to AA at this point, maybe even more so due to relative seniority to be gained by leaving now.
Almost to the letter, I am in this exact situation. If they would guarantee the flow to increase to a more attractive number, it would make the choice to stay a slam dunk. However every day we move closer to a potential class date at the ULCC's, the less likely I am to wait around.

Sadly, Envoy tends to be very reactionary and will wait until they are in a critical position before acting, at which point it will be a frenzy to get something passed. Or, and this is an option, they are completely OK with people leaving in mass because they have enough FO's that will happily take the upgrade slots. Who knows, but if they think sub 1000 captains are not actively looking for ways out with many already receiving CJO's they are kidding themselves.

THKooj
01-29-2020, 05:17 AM
Almost to the letter, I am in this exact situation. If they would guarantee the flow to increase to a more attractive number, it would make the choice to stay a slam dunk. However every day we move closer to a potential class date at the ULCC's, the less likely I am to wait around.

Sadly, Envoy tends to be very reactionary and will wait until they are in a critical position before acting, at which point it will be a frenzy to get something passed. Or, and this is an option, they are completely OK with people leaving in mass because they have enough FO's that will happily take the upgrade slots. Who knows, but if they think sub 1000 captains are not actively looking for ways out with many already receiving CJO's they are kidding themselves.

Sadly you just don't get it. Apparently there is no hope for you. However, for all of your loud mouthing on here about going elsewhere, you will stay here because you KNOW that Envoy itself is superior to any ULCC. Aside from the fact you are already American

But for the others here, I would counsel....patience grasshoppers. The flow will increase and that quick flow to AA will still be in effect.

Slow2Final
01-29-2020, 05:31 AM
The flow will increase and that quick flow to AA will still be in effect.

Prove it then.

Cyio
01-29-2020, 05:46 AM
Sadly you just don't get it. Apparently there is no hope for you. However, for all of your loud mouthing on here about going elsewhere, you will stay here because you KNOW that Envoy itself is superior to any ULCC. Aside from the fact you are already American

But for the others here, I would counsel....patience grasshoppers. The flow will increase and that quick flow to AA will still be in effect.
Could you please let me know when I "loud mouthed" leaving here? I have stated that there are other viable options, yes. I have stated I have offers from other places, yes. Have I loud mouthed that, I dont think so. Will I defend my fellow pilots and try to look out for their future, yes. An increase flow will help everyone, you telling us patience doesn't do a thing.

Since we all know you are sitting at the Envoy HQ, why dont you share some specifics into it? Oh wait, you cant and as usually instead of actually disputing specific things with what I posted, you make these very far fetched blanket statements. How about you specifically list what I said that was incorrect and tell us your solutions to it? I know, you cant and won't because you dont have anything.

Gooch
01-29-2020, 05:50 AM
Sadly you just don't get it. Apparently there is no hope for you. However, for all of your loud mouthing on here about going elsewhere, you will stay here because you KNOW that Envoy itself is superior to any ULCC. Aside from the fact you are already American

But for the others here, I would counsel....patience grasshoppers. The flow will increase and that quick flow to AA will still be in effect.

^Smells like a Jerry Glass troll.

skyemiles2
01-29-2020, 06:08 AM
Sadly you just don't get it. Apparently there is no hope for you. However, for all of your loud mouthing on here about going elsewhere, you will stay here because you KNOW that Envoy itself is superior to any ULCC. Aside from the fact you are already American

But for the others here, I would counsel....patience grasshoppers. The flow will increase and that quick flow to AA will still be in effect.

Iím sure there there are a lot of us who would absolutely love to be wrong about how the company and AA will handle this. In the meantime, itís only prudent to plan on the status quo.

Approach1260
01-29-2020, 06:21 AM
Sadly you just don't get it. Apparently there is no hope for you. However, for all of your loud mouthing on here about going elsewhere, you will stay here because you KNOW that Envoy itself is superior to any ULCC. Aside from the fact you are already American

But for the others here, I would counsel....patience grasshoppers. The flow will increase and that quick flow to AA will still be in effect.

You're losing your cool Kooj, if AA and Envoy are actually oozing unparalleled greatness as you keep insisting then you'd really think that at the very least even just one person anywhere on these forums would agree with you, and before you say they do, we're gonna need you to prove it.

If your position is backed by the truth then it should be self evident, but since everything you're saying is wild speculation people here are rightly calling you out.

The only places that your brand of Koolaid is gonna be well received would be a career fair at an aviation college with a bunch of kids who don't know any better than to listen to you.

Tyrion
01-29-2020, 08:52 AM
you will stay here because you KNOW that Envoy itself is superior to any ULCC.

If you had any shred of credibility... this statement should have just dropped a nuke on it.

How many new hires have we had at the Envoy coming from Frontier or Spirit? You should probably start Envoy recruiting threads in those forums. I'll make some popcorn.

THKooj
01-29-2020, 01:31 PM
Could you please let me know when I "loud mouthed" leaving here? I have stated that there are other viable options, yes. I have stated I have offers from other places, yes. Have I loud mouthed that, I dont think so. Will I defend my fellow pilots and try to look out for their future, yes. An increase flow will help everyone, you telling us patience doesn't do a thing.

Since we all know you are sitting at the Envoy HQ, why dont you share some specifics into it? Oh wait, you cant and as usually instead of actually disputing specific things with what I posted, you make these very far fetched blanket statements. How about you specifically list what I said that was incorrect and tell us your solutions to it? I know, you cant and won't because you dont have anything.

I'm not sitting at Envoy HQ as I have flowed, however I still maintain VERY strong contacts there and have SEVERAL very reliable sources which is where I source my info. Believe me, it's far better than what Cujo is offering you here. One, he doesn't even work here and two, he has an axe to grind. His only "contacts" are maybe an old long departed from Envoy union buddy who has ZERO information on what is going on day to day.

If I'm making a blanket statement, it's because I can't reveal more detail at the current moment, however I'm giving you what I can for now. Now, back to your Envoy status. I'm simply stating that you know it's way too good here to leave so all this talk about moving on and "making a decision soon" is nothing but a bunch of hot air. Whether you have 5 years or 2 years to flow, it doesn't matter. Leaving for anything other than maybe Delta, and that's a big maybe, is a bad move and would be a mistake. You coming on here and making this very public is within only about 5 to 10% of the Envoy pilot corps. I talk to many Envoy pilots on a regular basis and by far, the sentiment is pro Envoy/AA around the 90% margin.

Slow2Final
01-29-2020, 01:38 PM
Believe me, it's far better than what Cujo is offering you here.

'My knowledge backed up with nothing but feelings, is so much more trustworthy than anyone else's!'

Cyio
01-29-2020, 02:40 PM
I'm not sitting at Envoy HQ as I have flowed, however I still maintain VERY strong contacts there and have SEVERAL very reliable sources which is where I source my info. Believe me, it's far better than what Cujo is offering you here. One, he doesn't even work here and two, he has an axe to grind. His only "contacts" are maybe an old long departed from Envoy union buddy who has ZERO information on what is going on day to day.

If I'm making a blanket statement, it's because I can't reveal more detail at the current moment, however I'm giving you what I can for now. Now, back to your Envoy status. I'm simply stating that you know it's way too good here to leave so all this talk about moving on and "making a decision soon" is nothing but a bunch of hot air. Whether you have 5 years or 2 years to flow, it doesn't matter. Leaving for anything other than maybe Delta, and that's a big maybe, is a bad move and would be a mistake. You coming on here and making this very public is within only about 5 to 10% of the Envoy pilot corps. I talk to many Envoy pilots on a regular basis and by far, the sentiment is pro Envoy/AA around the 90% margin.
So again, no facts, just speculation and "believe me" statements. If you then add the fact that you are saying going to Delta is "maybe" a better move than hanging out at Envoy proves to everyone on here you are a puppet or management. Delta is the best thing going right now so for you to say that it "maybe" would be worth leaving is ignorant at best.

How is making a decision "soon" anymore hot air then anything you are saying? Again I will wait for an actual answer not some Envoy grandstanding one you are known for.

It is easy for you to say you have flowed, but I dont see any other single AA pilot hanging out in the Envoy forum as consistently as you do. Sure some pop in once in awhile and give some words of advice, but then leave because ultimantly it doesn't effect them. Clearly, what we talk about greatly effects you because you are so strongly against it.

Approach1260
01-29-2020, 05:19 PM
I'm not sitting at Envoy HQ as I have flowed, however I still maintain VERY strong contacts there and have SEVERAL very reliable sources which is where I source my info. Believe me, it's far better than what Cujo is offering you here. One, he doesn't even work here and two, he has an axe to grind. His only "contacts" are maybe an old long departed from Envoy union buddy who has ZERO information on what is going on day to day.

If I'm making a blanket statement, it's because I can't reveal more detail at the current moment, however I'm giving you what I can for now. Now, back to your Envoy status. I'm simply stating that you know it's way too good here to leave so all this talk about moving on and "making a decision soon" is nothing but a bunch of hot air. Whether you have 5 years or 2 years to flow, it doesn't matter. Leaving for anything other than maybe Delta, and that's a big maybe, is a bad move and would be a mistake. You coming on here and making this very public is within only about 5 to 10% of the Envoy pilot corps. I talk to many Envoy pilots on a regular basis and by far, the sentiment is pro Envoy/AA around the 90% margin.

Lol so now even Delta is a maybe in your book??? Hahaha you're too good to be true 😂😂😂😂

OldBiff
01-30-2020, 08:18 AM
If you count on the flow, youíre obviously too young to remember 2008, 9/11, the .com bust, recession in the late 80s etc. The entire goal of this job is get on the seniority list you plan to be on for 20 years ASAP, wherever that may be.

Look at the economy. Look at the low interest rates and QE money effects. The next downturn is going to be a doozy because weíve got nothing else to brace the fall and itís coming. As someone else said if you treat this like a part time job youíre going to get burned. Get here, hustle, and get gone.