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View Full Version : Virus Perspective


gzsg
01-29-2020, 05:47 AM
By the numbers: This new strain of coronavirus has killed 132 people (https://apple.news/A6rtV602ERFWw_pzyhM-XGA) so far, all of them in China. More than 6,000 total cases have been reported worldwide, although experts believe that total is underestimated.

By comparison, this year's flu season has killed 8,200 people (https://www.cdc.gov/flu/weekly/index.htm), with at least 15 million cases ó and that's just in the U.S.


forgot to bid
01-29-2020, 05:51 AM
Hope the China numbers are accurate

hvydvr
01-29-2020, 05:59 AM
By the numbers: This new strain of coronavirus has killed 132 people (https://apple.news/A6rtV602ERFWw_pzyhM-XGA) so far, all of them in China. More than 6,000 total cases have been reported worldwide, although experts believe that total is underestimated.

By comparison, this year's flu season has killed 8,200 people (https://www.cdc.gov/flu/weekly/index.htm), with at least 15 million cases ó and that's just in the U.S.

It's a miracle the State Department hasn't closed up shop worldwide due to the flu then. The US government doesn't evacuate a consulate for the flu. Hell, they don't even evacuate one that getting mortared. Yet, US government officials and families were evacuated from Wuhan.

Actions speak volumes. If the mortality rate is similar to the flu, then the Chinese government reaction is out of all proportion. I'm guessing their numbers are BS.


CBreezy
01-29-2020, 06:00 AM
Hope the China numbers are accurate

Odds are they are underreported. And while it certainly is a very small percentage of flu, it also isn't ubiquitous as it hasn't had the opportunity to spread. The flu doesn't kill many in August or September but we don't say "see? Hardly anyone has gotten it yet. It won't be bad this year."

The most important distinction is, at least with the flu, there is a vaccine to help protect people, like those with compromised immune systems. How would you feel if you went on a trip, interacted with someone who was a carrier of but not showing any symptoms of the coronavirus, contracted it yourself and gave it to your infant son who then subsequently died and it was completely preventable.

ERflyer
01-29-2020, 06:01 AM
By the numbers: This new strain of coronavirus has killed 132 people (https://apple.news/A6rtV602ERFWw_pzyhM-XGA) so far, all of them in China. More than 6,000 total cases have been reported worldwide, although experts believe that total is underestimated.

By comparison, this year's flu season has killed 8,200 people (https://www.cdc.gov/flu/weekly/index.htm), with at least 15 million cases ó and that's just in the U.S.

You are absolutely correct.

But there are still empty airplanes flying around and flights canceled throughout the world. They are saying the virus will peak .... in June.

Gunfighter
01-29-2020, 08:00 AM
By the numbers: This new strain of coronavirus has killed 132 people (https://apple.news/A6rtV602ERFWw_pzyhM-XGA) so far, all of them in China. More than 6,000 total cases have been reported worldwide, although experts believe that total is underestimated.

By comparison, this year's flu season has killed 8,200 people (https://www.cdc.gov/flu/weekly/index.htm), with at least 15 million cases ó and that's just in the U.S.

Based on your numbers, the mortality rate for the flu is .0005 or roughly 3.3 deaths out of 6,000 cases. The mortality rate for coronavirus based on your numbers is 132 out of 6,000. The mortality rate is 40x the flu. They are trying not to have 15 million cases...

RockyBoy
01-29-2020, 08:24 AM
By the numbers: This new strain of coronavirus has killed 132 people (https://apple.news/A6rtV602ERFWw_pzyhM-XGA) so far, all of them in China. More than 6,000 total cases have been reported worldwide, although experts believe that total is underestimated.

By comparison, this year's flu season has killed 8,200 people (https://www.cdc.gov/flu/weekly/index.htm), with at least 15 million cases ó and that's just in the U.S.

If 15 Million people get the Coronavirus way more than 8000 people will be dead. Probably around 500,000 or so. Thatís the issue with these viruses that have high mortality rates. It so far isnít as bad as SARS or MERS if the Chinese are telling the truth (unlikely) but it does spread much easier.

tennisguru
01-29-2020, 12:48 PM
The problem is the mortality rate is very uncertain this early in the outbreak, since there may be many mild cases out there that were not and will not be reported. Only now that people are on hyper alert are they going to get a more accurate picture of the actual number of infections. There may also be a handful of deaths that go unreported as well.

Excargodog
01-29-2020, 01:55 PM
By the numbers: This new strain of coronavirus has killed 132 people (https://apple.news/A6rtV602ERFWw_pzyhM-XGA) so far, all of them in China. More than 6,000 total cases have been reported worldwide, although experts believe that total is underestimated.

By comparison, this year's flu season has killed 8,200 people (https://www.cdc.gov/flu/weekly/index.htm), with at least 15 million cases ó and that's just in the U.S.


Apples and kumquats.

influenza is generally the mode of exit for the very chronically ill, and disproportionately the very young and very old. Everybody gets it but the people who die of it tend to be the ones with one foot in the grave and the other on a cake of soap. The exception was the big flu pandemic a hundred years ago that took out young people in their prime and killed Somewhere between 3 and 5% of the worlds population:

https://www.ecohealthalliance.org/2018/05/outbreak-pandemic-strikes?gclid=EAIaIQobChMI0MmBt_Kp5wIVRBh9Ch1V_Q3M EAAYASAAEgLXcfD_BwE

that one seemed to take out young and healthy people at the same rate as anyone else.

Thus far the statistics are about the same for this coronaviruses, a 5%case fatality rate. That will probably go down as better tests let us diagnose more of the less severe cases, but even so, this is spreading rapidly - by people who donít even know yet they are affected.

that doesnít mean we should run around screaming the world is going to end, because itís not. But we ought to be discussing prudent steps to take if it keeps spreading like it is. Thatís not paranoia, just good judgment.

Gspeed
01-29-2020, 02:55 PM
World War Z.

Tailhookah
01-29-2020, 04:54 PM
It's a miracle the State Department hasn't closed up shop worldwide due to the flu then. The US government doesn't evacuate a consulate for the flu. Hell, they don't even evacuate one that getting mortared. Yet, US government officials and families were evacuated from Wuhan.

Actions speak volumes. If the mortality rate is similar to the flu, then the Chinese government reaction is out of all proportion. I'm guessing their numbers are BS.

Good point. China has now allowed world UN health officials in. Iím sure itís been under reported so far. In that type of society it makes sense a lot has been covered up. Even in our own country itís natural for government cover up under the guise of not triggering public pandemonium. So itís understandable in a hard core socialist state that itís been understated. Anyone see the HBO series Chernobyl?

One benefit of China is that they can shut down whole cities without public outcry and hopefully will in hindsight show was a huge help in curbing the further spread of the Kung Flu. Time will tell. But as we continue to see a complex interconnected world, this may become a procedure for future outbreaks of pandemics. Itís also recently been practiced in West Africa during one of the last Ebola outbreaks.

Surprised the ACLU isnít flipping out that the plane load of Americans from the consulate in Wuhan are being interred at March AFB for 3-14 days. Oh yeah... they donít. No political skin in that fight.

THĎah

ShyGuy
01-29-2020, 05:01 PM
Cats

Dogs

Bats







Animals that should never be used as human food. Come at me bro

CBreezy
01-29-2020, 05:05 PM
Good point. China has now allowed world UN health officials in. Iím sure itís been under reported so far. In that type of society it makes sense a lot has been covered up. Even in our own country itís natural for government cover up under the guise of not triggering public pandemonium. So itís understandable in a hard core socialist state that itís been understated. Anyone see the HBO series Chernobyl?

One benefit of China is that they can shut down whole cities without public outcry and hopefully will in hindsight show was a huge help in curbing the further spread of the Kung Flu. Time will tell. But as we continue to see a complex interconnected world, this may become a procedure for future outbreaks of pandemics. Itís also recently been practiced in West Africa during one of the last Ebola outbreaks.

Surprised the ACLU isnít flipping out that the plane load of Americans from the consulate in Wuhan are being interred at March AFB for 3-14 days. Oh yeah... they donít. No political skin in that fight.

THĎah

You mean quarantined? Why would they be upset?

Tailhookah
01-29-2020, 07:46 PM
You mean quarantined? Why would they be upset?

They are not being quarantined.

freezingflyboy
01-29-2020, 08:42 PM
They are not being quarantined.
What word would you use then?

Tailhookah
01-30-2020, 01:05 AM
What word would you use then?

https://apnews.com/e3f13d6f778eae1dd6a062499ed889e7

Per the article. 2nd paragraph. Sentence 2&3. NOT quarantined.

Generic Pilot
01-30-2020, 02:47 AM
I'm less worried about China and much more concerned about India and Indonesia.

CBreezy
01-30-2020, 04:00 AM
https://apnews.com/e3f13d6f778eae1dd6a062499ed889e7

Per the article. 2nd paragraph. Sentence 2&3. NOT quarantined.

So, it's not a quarantined and... "Authorities said those evacuated, including U.S. consular employees based in the Chinese city of Wuhan and families with children, are technically not required to stay on the base. But all 195 passengers have agreed to stay for up to three days while they are evaluated for the illnesses."

So they are voluntarily staying to be evaluated for the disease. Why would the ACLU get involved?

freightdogg
01-30-2020, 04:55 AM
I'm less worried about China and much more concerned about India and Indonesia.
Did I miss something? Any outbreak from India and Indonesia? I just spent a week in Bali... not sure what you're referring to.

Hank Kingsley
01-30-2020, 05:02 AM
More importantly, how many Delta pilots would fly a greenslip to a Wuhan layover, the answer is.

TANSTAAFL
01-30-2020, 05:32 AM
Diseases with high transmission rates, longer incubation times, and medium mortality have a much higher likelihood of pandemic than highly virulent highly lethal diseases that burn out before they spread widely. Reports are that this disease may have mutated very recently to its current form. High mutation rates make vaccine development difficult. Panic no, but the concern over this is not overstated, and I would guess it is being underreported by the Chinese.

Big E 757
01-30-2020, 05:38 AM
More importantly, how many Delta pilots would fly a greenslip to a Wuhan layover, the answer is.


Hahaha. If Ebola doesnít scare us.....

DRaab
01-30-2020, 06:22 AM
Hahaha. If Ebola doesnít scare us.....
Yeah.. Green slip. Iím in.

casual observer
01-30-2020, 10:17 AM
World War Z.

Most awesome zombies ever.

tennisguru
01-30-2020, 02:19 PM
The APA is suing AA to stop all flights to China and are telling their pilots to refuse assignments to fly there.

Article was on USAToday app so I don't know how to post it on my phone.

DWC CAP10 USAF
01-30-2020, 02:24 PM
The APA is suing AA to stop all flights to China and are telling their pilots to refuse assignments to fly there.

Article was on USAToday app so I don't know how to post it on my phone.

Not USAToday, but a link non the less

https://www.cnbc.com/amp/2020/01/30/pilots-union-files-suit-to-halt-american-airlines-flights-to-china.html

tripled
01-30-2020, 04:13 PM
World War Z.

I thought ĎKung Fluí was a clever term. Also ĎXiís diseaseí

Tailhookah
01-30-2020, 04:58 PM
The APA is suing AA to stop all flights to China and are telling their pilots to refuse assignments to fly there.

Article was on USAToday app so I don't know how to post it on my phone.

This is playing right into the hands of dramatic, snowflake driven modern cable TV driven ratings politics. Stay healthy. Smart. Take precautions. Donít fly sick or tired. Fly the trip.

schwifty
01-30-2020, 05:31 PM
The APA is suing AA to stop all flights to China and are telling their pilots to refuse assignments to fly there.

Article was on USAToday app so I don't know how to post it on my phone.

They're also doing informational picketing and ratcheting up their noise making with regard to contract negotiations. Maybe a coincidence?

RockyBoy
01-30-2020, 06:14 PM
The APA is suing AA to stop all flights to China and are telling their pilots to refuse assignments to fly there.

Article was on USAToday app so I don't know how to post it on my phone.

US just issued a ďDo Not TravelĒ advisory Level 4 for China. Donít blame the APA. I think the US is not far from an all out travel ban to China.

Hank Kingsley
01-30-2020, 07:36 PM
Diseases with high transmission rates, longer incubation times, and medium mortality have a much higher likelihood of pandemic than highly virulent highly lethal diseases that burn out before they spread widely. Reports are that this disease may have mutated very recently to its current form. High mutation rates make vaccine development difficult. Panic no, but the concern over this is not overstated, and I would guess it is being underreported by the Chinese.
Doctors shouldn't have time to read pilot forums, what gives? Any financial advice too?

Iceberg
01-31-2020, 04:43 AM
This is playing right into the hands of dramatic, snowflake driven modern cable TV driven ratings politics. Stay healthy. Smart. Take precautions. Donít fly sick or tired. Fly the trip.

You just falsely accused the government of interring people at a military base when the article you quoted clearly stated they volunteered to stay. Now, youíre accusing the APA of snowflake herding?

TED74
01-31-2020, 04:43 AM
US just issued a ďDo Not TravelĒ advisory Level 4 for China. Donít blame the APA. I think the US is not far from an all out travel ban to China.

Do they have Tailhookah's snow flakes in charge, or what?

Gspeed
01-31-2020, 04:54 AM
You just falsely accused the government of interring people at a military base when the article you quoted clearly stated they volunteered to stay. Now, youíre accusing the APA of snowflake herding?

Iíd give you a star if I could.

D B Cooper
01-31-2020, 05:21 AM
https://www.forbes.com/sites/brucelee/2020/01/30/coronavirus-is-not-the-corona-beer-virus-what-people-are-googling/

gliderguider
01-31-2020, 05:38 AM
You just falsely accused the government of interring people at a military base when the article you quoted clearly stated they volunteered to stay. Now, youíre accusing the APA of snowflake herding?

I think the word snowflake is the only pejorative he knows how to use in a complete sentence.

Denny Crane
01-31-2020, 06:02 AM
You just falsely accused the government of interring people at a military base when the article you quoted clearly stated they volunteered to stay. Now, youíre accusing the APA of snowflake herding?

Just watched the News last night............someone tried to leave yesterday (from the group from Wuhan at the military base in Cali) and s/he was not allowed to leave. Based on that info, sure sounds like they are quarantined to me.

Denny

Jaww
01-31-2020, 06:05 AM
Just watched the News last night............someone tried to leave yesterday (from the group from Wuhan at the military base in Cali) and s/he was not allowed to leave. Based on that info, sure sounds like they are quarantined to me.

Denny

Kind of like Kobeís whole family was on the helicopter?

Not saying youíre wrong just that news doesnít always get it perfectly right. Look at aviation articles.

Denny Crane
01-31-2020, 06:19 AM
Kind of like Kobeís whole family was on the helicopter?

Not saying youíre wrong just that news doesnít always get it perfectly right. Look at aviation articles.

No, not like that at all. NBC News reported one passenger tried to leave and was not allowed too. Pretty simple actually.

Denny

Jaww
01-31-2020, 06:25 AM
No, not like that at all. NBC News reported one passenger tried to leave and was not allowed too. Pretty simple actually.

Denny

just like the other reporter said Kobeís family were all dead? Seems the same.

Jaww
01-31-2020, 06:29 AM
Just read up on it. Youíre right. Hadnít heard that yet.

Varsity
01-31-2020, 06:32 AM
By the numbers: This new strain of coronavirus has killed 132 people (https://apple.news/A6rtV602ERFWw_pzyhM-XGA) so far, all of them in China. More than 6,000 total cases have been reported worldwide, although experts believe that total is underestimated.

By comparison, this year's flu season has killed 8,200 people (https://www.cdc.gov/flu/weekly/index.htm), with at least 15 million cases — and that's just in the U.S.

16 of the first 26 cases have died, including the doctor treating them.

This isn't the flu, it's basically a highly contagious SARS.

Denny Crane
01-31-2020, 06:00 PM
Just read up on it. Youíre right. Hadnít heard that yet.

They are officially quarantined now! The US has now declared a Public Health Emergency for the Coronavirus.

Denny

Tailhookah
02-01-2020, 05:46 AM
You just falsely accused the government of interring people at a military base when the article you quoted clearly stated they volunteered to stay. Now, youíre accusing the APA of snowflake herding?

No I didnít. Someone else said the Q word... which at the time they werenít (I attached a link proving that). I was wondering if the aclu was going to flip out. Now they are Qíd. Iíve never mentioned APA in my posts. You falsely accusing me of saying so? Donít misquote me.

Tailhookah
02-01-2020, 05:47 AM
Just watched the News last night............someone tried to leave yesterday (from the group from Wuhan at the military base in Cali) and s/he was not allowed to leave. Based on that info, sure sounds like they are quarantined to me.

Denny

Denny I thought you were above the fray. Read the original article. They were not. At the time.

Tailhookah
02-01-2020, 05:51 AM
No, not like that at all. NBC News reported one passenger tried to leave and was not allowed too. Pretty simple actually.

Denny

https://apnews.com/e3f13d6f778eae1dd6a062499ed889e7

Denny. R E A D the article. 2nd paragraph. Sentence 2-3. I helped you find the NOT quarantined part since it seems youíre having a hard time with your reading skills. ;)

P Owed Captain
02-01-2020, 07:10 AM
They're not telling us how bad this really is. Look what this nurse is saying.
https://www.dailymail.co.uk/news/article-7929657/Nurse-treating-coronavirus-sufferers-China-claims-90-000-people-infected.html

Iceberg
02-01-2020, 08:17 AM
No I didnít. Someone else said the Q word... which at the time they werenít (I attached a link proving that). I was wondering if the aclu was going to flip out. Now they are Qíd. Iíve never mentioned APA in my posts. You falsely accusing me of saying so? Donít misquote me.

Donít falsely accuse me of falsely quoting you. Read the quote you quoted. I used the word interred, which is what you said was happening. The article you attached stated they were voluntarily staying. So I pointed that out (as did others).

You then quoted tennis who posted that the APA was suing AA to not fly to China. You said, this is playing into the snowflake media hysteria. So I pointed out the irony of your two posts put together. I guess you didnít appreciate that, but you do know that your posts stayed on the page to be reviewed. I would have quoted them for you but Iím not that forum savvy nor am I inclined to figure out how to quote multiple posts on my phone.

Iceberg
02-01-2020, 08:19 AM
Just watched the News last night............someone tried to leave yesterday (from the group from Wuhan at the military base in Cali) and s/he was not allowed to leave. Based on that info, sure sounds like they are quarantined to me.

Denny

Sounds like that news story happened after the referenced article was published. Huh, I guess time happened and things changed. Weird.

Denny Crane
02-01-2020, 08:50 AM
Denny I thought you were above the fray. Read the original article. They were not. At the time.

You are right. At that time they were not. I wasnít disagreeing with you. Sorry if it came across that way. I was just trying to point out that, at that time, one wanted to leave but was not allowed to.

Denny

Denny Crane
02-01-2020, 08:54 AM
https://apnews.com/e3f13d6f778eae1dd6a062499ed889e7

Denny. R E A D the article. 2nd paragraph. Sentence 2-3. I helped you find the NOT quarantined part since it seems youíre having a hard time with your reading skills. ;)

Again, I agree with you that they technically were not quarantined..........they just werenít allowed to leave....

Denny

Tailhookah
02-01-2020, 08:57 AM
Donít falsely accuse me of falsely quoting you. Read the quote you quoted. I used the word interred, which is what you said was happening. The article you attached stated they were voluntarily staying. So I pointed that out (as did others).

You then quoted tennis who posted that the APA was suing AA to not fly to China. You said, this is playing into the snowflake media hysteria. So I pointed out the irony of your two posts put together. I guess you didnít appreciate that, but you do know that your posts stayed on the page to be reviewed. I would have quoted them for you but Iím not that forum savvy nor am I inclined to figure out how to quote multiple posts on my phone.
Got me Denny. All that legal stuff finally paid off for u. Good job counselor. Ha!

Iceberg
02-01-2020, 07:56 PM
Got me Denny. All that legal stuff finally paid off for u. Good job counselor. Ha!

9 years of education that I gotta use at some point!

D B Cooper
02-02-2020, 07:20 AM
Again, I agree with you that they technically were not quarantined..........they just werenít allowed to leave....

Denny
https://youtu.be/WPjtw1vIGrg

TANSTAAFL
02-02-2020, 12:14 PM
Doctors shouldn't have time to read pilot forums, what gives? Any financial advice too?

https://www.nytimes.com/2020/02/02/health/coronavirus-pandemic-china.html?smid=nytcore-ios-share

tnkrdrvr
02-02-2020, 01:21 PM
What some of you guys are missing is that FEDEX and UPS have succeeded in convincing the Feds that cargo guys canít get sick and bring the virus to the states. Hence, we are immune to all of the recently announced health protection measures. Why are we immune and not you? Primarily because our cargo still wants to go and yours doesnít.

Tailhookah
02-02-2020, 02:17 PM
What some of you guys are missing is that FEDEX and UPS have succeeded in convincing the Feds that cargo guys canít get sick and bring the virus to the states. Hence, we are immune to all of the recently announced health protection measures. Why are we immune and not you? Primarily because our cargo still wants to go and yours doesnít.

Gotta keep Walmartís shelves full or the common folk of America get angry. (Canít say a derivative of urinate in the past tense apparently)

Boatfly
02-04-2020, 04:58 AM
I was wondering why the FedEx forum wasn't popping with this topic. How many pilots want to get 1.5X pay and die, or bring virus back to your family and friends? Hand wipes and an N95 mask will protect you? Medical professionals can only tolerate the mask about 30 minutes due to breathing resistance.
Before Wuhan (sic?) was closed off, 5 MILLION of its 12 million residents fled the city. Those 5 million people will spread this virus to much more than Wuhan.
And if you trust ANYTHING China says, you don't understand the lies and dangers of communism.

full of luv
02-04-2020, 06:27 AM
I was wondering why the FedEx forum wasn't popping with this topic. How many pilots want to get 1.5X pay and die, or bring virus back to your family and friends? Hand wipes and an N95 mask will protect you? Medical professionals can only tolerate the mask about 30 minutes due to breathing resistance.
Before Wuhan (sic?) was closed off, 5 MILLION of its 12 million residents fled the city. Those 5 million people will spread this virus to much more than Wuhan.
And if you trust ANYTHING China says, you don't understand the lies and dangers of communism.

Reminds me of the time in the midst of the Ebola outbreak and the infected nurse flew from Chicago to Dallas on Frontier airlines and after she nearly died in a Dallas hospital and her travel itinerary was released a couple days later, Frontier briefly took the plane out of service and then put out a statement that said " no worries, we thoroughly clean our aircraft after each leg so no chance the virus was on that plane". Made me feel better hearing from Frontier on that subject.

TexanDriver
02-06-2020, 04:35 PM
https://www.thedailybeast.com/flu-not-coronavirus-is-the-virus-killing-us-kids-like-luca-calanni