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View Full Version : 5.5 Years To Flow?


ag386
02-05-2020, 04:34 PM
Iíve been seeing 5.5 years to flow Envoy ads every time I get on APC lately. It seems thatís nowhere near the realm of possibility from the info posted here. How is recruiting still selling this?


UncreativeUser
02-05-2020, 05:07 PM
Iíve been seeing 5.5 years to flow Envoy ads every time I get on APC lately. It seems thatís nowhere near the realm of possibility from the info posted here. How is recruiting still selling this?



Oh great, youíre back.


Sent from my iPhone using Tapatalk

Chato
02-05-2020, 05:16 PM
Iíve been seeing 5.5 years to flow Envoy ads every time I get on APC lately. It seems thatís nowhere near the realm of possibility from the info posted here. How is recruiting still selling this?

my theory is that the company asked ALPA to stop updating the interactive seniority list with estimated flow dates probably cause they showed 8+ years to flow and this hurts recruiting. Now everyone has to do their own math and figure out when theyíll likely flow.


UncreativeUser
02-05-2020, 05:19 PM
my theory is that the company asked ALPA to stop updating the interactive seniority list with estimated flow dates probably cause they showed 8+ years to flow and this hurts recruiting. Now everyone has to do their own math and figure out when theyíll likely flow.



The guy who made the list flowed to AA and stopped caring. Messed up, but I donít think the company asked to stop updating numbers. It is basic math, at 20 per month for 11 months and 24ish per month after that ONLY FLOWS than yeah itíll be a while.


Sent from my iPhone using Tapatalk

Chato
02-05-2020, 05:23 PM
The guy who made the list flowed to AA and stopped caring. Messed up, but I donít think the company asked to stop updating numbers. It is basic math, at 20 per month for 11 months and 24ish per month after that ONLY FLOWS than yeah itíll be a while.


Sent from my iPhone using Tapatalk

I asked the union if someone else could take over, the union told me he wanted to continue doing it. This is what they told me not even two months ago.

UncreativeUser
02-05-2020, 05:25 PM
I asked the union if someone else could take over, the union told me he wanted to continue doing it. This is what they told me not even two months ago.



Well, where is it? Where is e log site? When you stop updating those lists, the information is so fluid that it becomes really really hard to maintain. Of course he will say he wants to do it, but thereís no results. So Iím not holding my breath. The union one we have now is good for the time being I guess


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Chato
02-05-2020, 05:28 PM
Well, where is it? Where is e log site? When you stop updating those lists, the information is so fluid that it becomes really really hard to maintain. Of course he will say he wants to do it, but thereís no results. So Iím not holding my breath. The union one we have now is good for the time being I guess


Sent from my iPhone using Tapatalk

with thay said, someone asked online if we were going to have an updated list with estimated flow dates they said no more. Read between the lines

dera
02-05-2020, 05:51 PM
my theory is that the company asked ALPA to stop updating the interactive seniority list with estimated flow dates probably cause they showed 8+ years to flow and this hurts recruiting. Now everyone has to do their own math and figure out when theyíll likely flow.

I have it on a very credible source that this is 100% horsepoop.

dera
02-05-2020, 05:52 PM
with thay said, someone asked online if we were going to have an updated list with estimated flow dates they said no more. Read between the lines

They publish a list, you do the math, it's not hard. Or you can do it yourself. 2 minutes to add the excel formula to calculate it.

Chato
02-05-2020, 05:57 PM
They publish a list, you do the math, it's not hard. Or you can do it yourself. 2 minutes to add the excel formula to calculate it.

i know my time to flow, long enough to stick around.. im talking a list showing you estimate to flow in 2028-9. I dont think people like to see that, thats my point.

dera
02-05-2020, 06:11 PM
i know my time to flow, long enough to stick around.. im talking a list showing you estimate to flow in 2028-9. I dont think people like to see that, thats my point.

What "people" don't like to see that?
The union now publishes the data. Flow 20 until end of 1011, and then 5 + 1 for every 125 above 480, currently 20. Take out 190 lifers and divide the number between you and flow by 20. That's how many months you have left with no-one else leaving above you. It's an excel sheet, you can do whatever you like to it to run your own numbers.

If a new hire averages 10 senior people outside the flow leaving over his time here, then he will flow in 6 years and 2 months. This is the optimistic end. If no-one leaves, which is the unrealistic end of that range, then it's 9 years and 2 months. Truth is somewhere in between.

NoValueAviator
02-06-2020, 05:36 AM
Do you really want to be junior to a bunch of kids hired in their late 20ís for your entire career at AA, flowing after they replace 10k+ pilots between 2020 & 2025? Maybe, depending on age and how things shake out, youíll be forced to retire never having seen the right seat of a wide body.

imo the flow is way less valuable unless your projected date is in the early 20ís - ship has sailed.

THKooj
02-06-2020, 06:26 AM
Iíve been seeing 5.5 years to flow Envoy ads every time I get on APC lately. It seems thatís nowhere near the realm of possibility from the info posted here. How is recruiting still selling this?

What is it with you and another resident here who both left the company, not of your own accord, still coming back here to try and paint a bad picture of Envoy and discourage candidates?

Well, I've got news for you and your other partner in crime. Your efforts are not working. Envoy was on the cutting edge when the pipeline program was started a few years back. It is providing the bulk of new hires and has turned out to be wildly successful beyond all projections. CFI pipeline candidates are the best prepared and best groomed for hitting the ground running on day one of indoc. Of note here, I personally have never been an advocate of the bias toward military aviators being hired directly in at AA. They have zero experience in 121 is the primary reason. Seeing the success of the pipeline candidates at Envoy coupled with less military candidates overall for the legacies lead me to believe that the CFI pipeline candidate of the future IS the military hire of yesterday.

The line to get in the door at Envoy is long.....and getting longer.

THKooj
02-06-2020, 06:27 AM
Do you really want to be junior to a bunch of kids hired in their late 20ís for your entire career at AA, flowing after they replace 10k+ pilots between 2020 & 2025? Maybe, depending on age and how things shake out, youíll be forced to retire never having seen the right seat of a wide body.

imo the flow is way less valuable unless your projected date is in the early 20ís - ship has sailed.

Can't help but laugh at this. Wrong.

THKooj
02-06-2020, 06:27 AM
Oh great, youíre back.


Sent from my iPhone using Tapatalk

Couldn't agree more.

rld1k
02-06-2020, 06:29 AM
What is it with you and another resident here who both left the company, not of your own accord, still coming back here to try and paint a bad picture of Envoy and discourage candidates?

Well, I've got news for you and your other partner in crime. Your efforts are not working. Envoy was on the cutting edge when the pipeline program was started a few years back. It is providing the bulk of new hires and has turned out to be wildly successful beyond all projections. CFI pipeline candidates are the best prepared and best groomed for hitting the ground running on day one of indoc. Of note here, I personally have never been an advocate of the bias toward military aviators being hired directly in at AA. They have zero experience in 121 is the primary reason. Seeing the success of the pipeline candidates at Envoy coupled with less military candidates overall for the legacies lead me to believe that the CFI pipeline candidate of the future IS the military hire of yesterday.

The line to get in the door at Envoy is long.....and getting longer.

Notice how he completely dodges answering the question

Varsity
02-06-2020, 06:30 AM
What is it with you and another resident here who both left the company, not of your own accord, still coming back here to try and paint a bad picture of Envoy and discourage candidates?

Well, I've got news for you and your other partner in crime. Your efforts are not working. Envoy was on the cutting edge when the pipeline program was started a few years back. It is providing the bulk of new hires and has turned out to be wildly successful beyond all projections. CFI pipeline candidates are the best prepared and best groomed for hitting the ground running on day one of indoc. Of note here, I personally have never been an advocate of the bias toward military aviators being hired directly in at AA. They have zero experience in 121 is the primary reason. Seeing the success of the pipeline candidates at Envoy coupled with less military candidates overall for the legacies lead me to believe that the CFI pipeline candidate of the future IS the military hire of yesterday.

The line to get in the door at Envoy is long.....and getting longer.
:rolleyes:

Slow2Final
02-06-2020, 06:37 AM
What is it with you and another resident here who both left the company, not of your own accord, still coming back here to try and paint a bad picture of Envoy and discourage candidates?

Well, I've got news for you and your other partner in crime. Your efforts are not working. Envoy was on the cutting edge when the pipeline program was started a few years back. It is providing the bulk of new hires and has turned out to be wildly successful beyond all projections. CFI pipeline candidates are the best prepared and best groomed for hitting the ground running on day one of indoc. Of note here, I personally have never been an advocate of the bias toward military aviators being hired directly in at AA. They have zero experience in 121 is the primary reason. Seeing the success of the pipeline candidates at Envoy coupled with less military candidates overall for the legacies lead me to believe that the CFI pipeline candidate of the future IS the military hire of yesterday.

The line to get in the door at Envoy is long.....and getting longer.

Out of curiosity, how is it that you have so much knowledge of these pipeline candidates if you're no longer at Envoy?

buddies8
02-06-2020, 06:52 AM
He hangs out a flight schools like a drug dealer handing out lolly pops. He is on special assignment from american, he says. So aa is paying him to hand out lolly pops.

Tyrion
02-06-2020, 09:09 PM
He hangs out a flight schools like a drug dealer handing out lolly pops. He is on special assignment from american, he says. So aa is paying him to hand out lolly pops.

The Kooj in action...

4990

Cujo665
02-08-2020, 09:08 AM
I said long ago that their projection probably isn't far off. I think it’s 6 years, not 5. Short term it may hit 6.5-7 years but will come right back down.

I also think by this time next year you won’t need more than completing probation to go to any of the good majors and ACMI’s

2-4 years will be legacy material. Waiting 5-6 will only be needed by those without degrees, couldn’t get AA through the front door, or just didn’t try and were content to sweat it out waiting to flow.

They could attract more pilots simply by making the work rules and working conditions among the best in the industry. That cost would be much less expensive than all these bonus programs, pipelines, 200% open time and hiring advertising promoters like THStooj.

As for THStooj, he continues to sell something that is loosing value daily. Shortly it will become worthless. He loses credibility every time he posts. Hence the reason he has to create new screen names all the time.

NoValueAviator
02-10-2020, 05:51 AM
I also think by this time next year you wonít need more than completing probation to go to any of the good majors and ACMIís

Hope you're right. If this comes true, even if it isn't on that kind of timeline which is pretty optimistic in my opinion, it will shatter the regional business model and all pilots will end up being paid closer to what we're worth rather than some making out like bandits and others getting the shaft.

AB321Driver
02-10-2020, 01:50 PM
February 04, 2020 Class 20-03

21 Envoy
08 PSA
24 MIL
03 Corporate
02 Piedmont
09 Other Airline

Total to date: 180
Glideslope: 180
2020 Plan: 1500 max

2020 plan:
25 classes. 60 each
1500 max load

Varsity
02-10-2020, 02:08 PM
21 include one hired off the street?

dera
02-10-2020, 02:34 PM
21 include one hired off the street?

Yes. Solid guy.

Laminar
02-13-2020, 04:55 PM
Yes. Solid guy.

You mean the uneducated guy with little to no experience. That one

dera
02-13-2020, 04:57 PM
You mean the uneducated guy with little to no experience. That one

No. Not that one. This guy was a great CA to fly with.

Not sure you are following this conversation.

Cujo665
02-15-2020, 09:35 AM
Hope you're right. If this comes true, even if it isn't on that kind of timeline which is pretty optimistic in my opinion, it will shatter the regional business model and all pilots will end up being paid closer to what we're worth rather than some making out like bandits and others getting the shaft.


while I’m not a big fan, even Kit Darby finally admitted that the demand is 10,000 pilots per year currently, while only 6,000 total new ATP’s are coming online each year, and not all are interested in 121.

sadly, ALPA National still has a legislative affairs chairman that insists there is no shortage.

when I say this time next year finishing probation will get you to a decent ACMI or a major... that’s the majors, not legacies. Places like Jetblue, Spirit, Frontier. 2-4 years will be legacy material. A 5.5-6 year flow will only be people with no degree, only want AA and are to lazy to fight for the front door..

TallFlyer
02-18-2020, 01:59 PM
They publish a list, you do the math, it's not hard. Or you can do it yourself. 2 minutes to add the excel formula to calculate it.

Speaking as someone who has done a LOT of that math, it's a little more than two minutes, and if you don't have a good grasp of what the outside attrition is at all levels of the seniority list is, it's likely wrong.

But seriously
02-18-2020, 02:18 PM
Speaking as someone who has done a LOT of that math, it's a little more than two minutes, and if you don't have a good grasp of what the outside attrition is at all levels of the seniority list is, it's likely wrong.

All of the math is an estimate at best, and more likely a WAG. There are two huge unknown factors:

1. Outside Attrition - itís hardly useful to use the past as a predictive tool considering what everyone anticipates the Legacy hiring to be over the next few years

2. The Flow Agreements - There is not a single pilot who has flowed to AA under an agreement that was in place when they were hired (at least in the last 20 years). The flow agreement staying constant for 5 years is extremely unlikely.

shinydiscoballs
02-18-2020, 04:03 PM
All of the math is an estimate at best, and more likely a WAG. There are two huge unknown factors:

1. Outside Attrition - itís hardly useful to use the past as a predictive tool considering what everyone anticipates the Legacy hiring to be over the next few years

2. The Flow Agreements - There is not a single pilot who has flowed to AA under an agreement that was in place when they were hired (at least in the last 20 years). The flow agreement staying constant for 5 years is extremely unlikely.

Keep Calm the Union is at it, and will share the facts! ;)

HalyardJammer
02-18-2020, 08:06 PM
Keep Calm the Union is at it, and will share the facts! ;)
Are you sure they won't vote to waive it?

Pedro4President
02-19-2020, 03:05 AM
my theory is that the company asked ALPA to stop updating the interactive seniority list with estimated flow dates probably cause they showed 8+ years to flow and this hurts recruiting. Now everyone has to do their own math and figure out when theyíll likely flow.

Our MEC just put out a list two weeks prior to your comment and just updated it today with expected flow dates.

Chato
02-19-2020, 04:15 AM
Our MEC just put out a list two weeks prior to your comment and just updated it today with expected flow dates.

yeah somebody had asked about a month ago if they were going to release an updated one, and at that point they said no more. I guess they changed their mind

itsmytime
02-19-2020, 04:19 AM
when I say this time next year finishing probation will get you to a decent ACMI or a major... thatís the majors, not legacies. Places like Jetblue, Spirit, Frontier. 2-4 years will be legacy material. A 5.5-6 year flow will only be people with no degree, only want AA and are to lazy to fight for the front door..

this is already happening. A buddy of mine is still on IOE at a regional, and already has an interview with one of the three you mentioned.

Chato
02-19-2020, 04:25 AM
this is already happening. A buddy of mine is still on IOE at a regional, and already has an interview with one of the three you mentioned.

I know a guy recently who finished IOE at Mesa and bounced immediately to a LCC

dera
02-19-2020, 04:42 AM
yeah somebody had asked about a month ago if they were going to release an updated one, and at that point they said no more. I guess they changed their mind

That was re. the interactive seniority list.
The new list should be published monthly from now on.

tommy2times
02-19-2020, 05:51 AM
this is already happening. A buddy of mine is still on IOE at a regional, and already has an interview with one of the three you mentioned.

I reckon they didnít enjoy sitting at the airport for 8 hours at a time and then getting a call in the last 5 minutes of it to do a long turn because it is legal.

Pedro4President
02-19-2020, 05:24 PM
I reckon they didnít enjoy sitting at the airport for 8 hours at a time and then getting a call in the last 5 minutes of it to do a long turn because it is legal.

truth.....

ViperCrosswind
02-19-2020, 08:13 PM
So what if you can't find your name on the new FLOW list but you've worked here for over two years?

rld1k
02-19-2020, 08:20 PM
So what if you can't find your name on the new FLOW list but you've worked here for over two years?

Flow list? Do you mean flow plan?

dera
02-19-2020, 09:23 PM
So what if you can't find your name on the new FLOW list but you've worked here for over two years?

I'd say you are lost.

THKooj
02-20-2020, 03:49 AM
All of the math is an estimate at best, and more likely a WAG. There are two huge unknown factors:

1. Outside Attrition - itís hardly useful to use the past as a predictive tool considering what everyone anticipates the Legacy hiring to be over the next few years

2. The Flow Agreements - There is not a single pilot who has flowed to AA under an agreement that was in place when they were hired (at least in the last 20 years). The flow agreement staying constant for 5 years is extremely unlikely.

Fortunately, you're wrong. This time, the flow is contractual. It's not going to stop.

itsmytime
02-20-2020, 04:10 AM
Fortunately, you're wrong. This time, the flow is contractual. It's not going to stop.

the flow haters are really funny. They will make up any thing they can think of to discredit it.

FlyPurdue
02-20-2020, 04:20 AM
Fortunately, you're wrong. This time, the flow is contractual. It's not going to stop.

What they meant was that all of the flow agreements thus far have changed (for the better). I don't know if this is completely true, but what's was meant is 'no one has flowed to AA under the exact same flow terms they were hired under.'

Cyio
02-20-2020, 05:52 AM
the flow haters are really funny. They will make up any thing they can think of to discredit it.
Who ďhatesĒ the flow? Pretty sure everyone is happy to have it but what rational person wouldnít want to see it improved?

Is it perfect, no, is it better than nothing, yes.

THKooj
02-20-2020, 05:57 AM
Who ďhatesĒ the flow? Pretty sure everyone is happy to have it but what rational person wouldnít want to see it improved?

Is it perfect, no, is it better than nothing, yes.

People who can't get in or those who are now on the outside looking in.

THKooj
02-20-2020, 05:57 AM
the flow haters are really funny. They will make up any thing they can think of to discredit it.

Preaching to the choir brotha.

pitchattitude
02-20-2020, 06:03 AM
People who can't get in or those who are now on the outside looking in.
No, we just hate that KoolAid shills like you and management inflate it beyond its actual and ever diminishing value because it is an excuse for poor QOL and pay.

TransWorld
02-20-2020, 06:33 AM
2. The Flow Agreements - The flow agreement staying constant for 5 years is extremely unlikely.

Starting soon, the retirements are forecast to require hiring 1 out of 5 of the regional pilots each and every year, sustained. (Accounting for additional hires from military and other non-regional pilots.)

In light of this, will you think the flow agreement numbers will remain unchanged? Envoy flow numbers, with no change and no attrition, would result in new hires today flowing in 10 years. Yet hiring will result in 5 years average time to hire for the regionals as a whole.

Try squaring these two in your mind. Ether flows will become meaningless or flow numbers will change. (Baring a black swan event.)

But seriously
02-20-2020, 06:48 AM
Fortunately, you're wrong. This time, the flow is contractual. It's not going to stop.

Who said anything about the flow stopping?
the 240 pilots went under a grievance award (I canít remember what it was for). The 824 went under a grievance settlement. I think some of them had flow agreements when they were hired, but they went about 8-12 years after they were promised to go. The Protected Pilots didnít have any sort of flow agreement when they were hired and got one, again, through a grievance settlement. The L10-11 didnít have flow either when they got hired. I canít remember where their flow came from, either divestiture, bankruptcy, or a settlement.
Thatís everyone who has gone since about 2003 when AA stopped hiring.

My point wasnít that the flow is bad, or useless. My point is that some spreadsheet showing youíll flow in 5 years is useless. The agreements are bound to change in that period of time. Maybe for the better, maybe not. Just donít plan your life (or your finances), based on when that spreadsheet says youíre supposed to go.

Also, screaming ďITS CONTRACTUALĒ is childish. The company has forced us to change the contract both in bankruptcy, and out of it. Theyíve also violated the contract on numerous occasions. Hence all the grievance settlements.

itsmytime
02-20-2020, 07:59 AM
Who ďhatesĒ the flow? Pretty sure everyone is happy to have it but what rational person wouldnít want to see it improved?

Is it perfect, no, is it better than nothing, yes.

when I refer to ďhatersĒ Iím talking those at other airlines that donít have it. If you have flow already, any *****ing is because you want to see it improved. Not trying to tear it down to convince yourself that you are better off without it.

BigZ
02-20-2020, 08:53 AM
So what if you can't find your name on the new FLOW list but you've worked here for over two years?
Basically means if you showed up to work more often you'd know these things ;)

Cujo665
02-20-2020, 09:18 AM
this is already happening. A buddy of mine is still on IOE at a regional, and already has an interview with one of the three you mentioned.

told people is was going to happen. A bit surprised it happening already, I didnít expect it until later this year, then commonplace by this time next year. In any event, called it right again... just faster than forecast.

the flow will become of less and less value as time goes on.... . Especially at the reduced 17% flow rates instead of 50+%

Cujo665
02-20-2020, 09:21 AM
2. The Flow Agreements - There is not a single pilot who has flowed to AA under an agreement that was in place when they were hired (at least in the last 20 years). The flow agreement staying constant for 5 years is extremely unlikely.

only partially true. Those who flowed prior to 9-11-2001 were from the original flow agreement.... and the first 35 in 2009 were from the first flow agreement. After that came the 247 / 824 awards, the protected pilot 1 settlement flow, and so on....

Cujo665
02-20-2020, 09:24 AM
What they meant was that all of the flow agreements thus far have changed (for the better). I don't know if this is completely true, but what's was meant is 'no one has flowed to AA under the exact same flow terms they were hired under.'

for the better?

used to flow 50% of every class. Did not have to be a Captain. Did not have to have a spotless p-file.

everybody prior to the 247/824 awards flowed under exactly the flow in place when hired....

THKooj
02-20-2020, 11:35 AM
told people is was going to happen. A bit surprised it happening already, I didnít expect it until later this year, then commonplace by this time next year. In any event, called it right again... just faster than forecast.

Wrong, a few outliers does not make you a Nostradamus. I have the data, you don't.

the flow will become of less and less value as time goes on.... . Especially at the reduced 17% flow rates instead of 50+%

Wrong again, the flow will improve as time goes on. You just don't see the facts yet.

But seriously
02-20-2020, 12:03 PM
only partially true. Those who flowed prior to 9-11-2001 were from the original flow agreement.... and the first 35 in 2009 were from the first flow agreement. After that came the 247 / 824 awards, the protected pilot 1 settlement flow, and so on....

I stand corrected. In the last 19 years and I was off by 35 pilots.

But seriously
02-20-2020, 12:07 PM
for the better?

used to flow 50% of every class. Did not have to be a Captain. Did not have to have a spotless p-file.

everybody prior to the 247/824 awards flowed under exactly the flow in place when hired....

Also...
Some went over with some accrued seniority and longevity (I think the 247 was like that).
The 824 went with company longevity intact, although not pilot longevity (if memory serves).

Cujo665
02-20-2020, 12:11 PM
Wrong, a few outliers does not make you a Nostradamus. I have the data, you don't.



Wrong again, the flow will improve as time goes on. You just don't see the facts yet.

well, since my forecasts have been the ones proven accurate since 2013 and yours have been snake oil since your LAX prediction 2 years ago.... I think weíll be using mine, not yours.

Flow improve?
We had unconditional flow at 50% of every new hire position. Now itís 17% with conditions. You have a long long way to go to beat whatís already gone.

Cujo665
02-20-2020, 12:16 PM
Also...
Some went over with some accrued seniority and longevity (I think the 247 was like that).
The 824 went with company longevity intact, although not pilot longevity (if memory serves).

Yes, everybody up to and including the 824 had AA seniority numbers while still at Eagle and carried over some time. We were all in the AA $uper$aver 401k back then too... not the Eaglevoy red headed stepchild 401k plan. ICE benefits went away post bankruptcy and then came back in the current limited fashion.

They need to restore the 50% flow. Thatís what had pilots coming to Eaglevoy, not 17%

Better yet, let AA HR do the hiring at Eaglevoy and bump the flow up to 60%.

tommy2times
02-20-2020, 01:00 PM
Yes, everybody up to and including the 824 had AA seniority numbers while still at Eagle and carried over some time. We were all in the AA $uper$aver 401k back then too... not the Eaglevoy red headed stepchild 401k plan. ICE benefits went away post bankruptcy and then came back in the current limited fashion.

They need to restore the 50% flow. Thatís what had pilots coming to Eaglevoy, not 17%

Better yet, let AA HR do the hiring at Eaglevoy and bump the flow up to 60%.

Better yet give us AA seniority numbers NOW!

Cyio
02-20-2020, 01:00 PM
Yes, everybody up to and including the 824 had AA seniority numbers while still at Eagle and carried over some time. We were all in the AA $uper$aver 401k back then too... not the Eaglevoy red headed stepchild 401k plan. ICE benefits went away post bankruptcy and then came back in the current limited fashion.

They need to restore the 50% flow. Thatís what had pilots coming to Eaglevoy, not 17%

Better yet, let AA HR do the hiring at Eaglevoy and bump the flow up to 60%.
Agree about the flow part. Our union seems to want nothing to do with pushing the issue so looks like we are stuck at 17%.

BigZ
02-20-2020, 01:34 PM
Agree about the flow part. Our union seems to want nothing to do with pushing the issue so looks like we are stuck at 17%.
And that is fantastic.
"Projections" that we saw when we were hired were not calculated by the union, neither should the union (and us) have to pay anything to make them happen. Can't make the 5.5 yr flow a reality? Ok, cool. See the pilots leave, come up with other ways of motivating them to stick around. Not a hard concept. Does require the other WO carriers to do the same though.

NoValueAviator
02-20-2020, 01:41 PM
At 5 years, 6 months and 1 day if I'm still at Envoy I'm submitting a grievance.

Dunno if it'll do anything. Don't care. They promise it everywhere.

tommy2times
02-20-2020, 01:47 PM
I will be attending the Frontier and Spirit meet the chiefs event in Florida, hope to see some of you there.

black cat
02-20-2020, 01:56 PM
Better yet give us AA seniority numbers NOW!

APA will never sign off on that

pitchattitude
02-20-2020, 02:15 PM
Wrong again, the flow will improve as time goes on. You just don't see the facts yet.

Then SHOW facts that PROVE the flow will improve, not your KoolAid BS.

NOTHING you have said is provable as fact.

Cujo665
02-20-2020, 06:01 PM
Better yet give us AA seniority numbers NOW!

that requires APA agreement. That interest isnít there currently.

NoValueAviator
02-20-2020, 06:16 PM
I'm surprised there's no effort by mainline to recapture jets (and pilots) from the regional sweatshops.

Then again, AA is losing so much money so quickly and in such prosperous times that it might not be able to survive the increased labor costs lol.

I assume they would probably also rather just take the planes and put us out of a job.

Cujo665
02-20-2020, 07:34 PM
I'm surprised there's no effort by mainline to recapture jets (and pilots) from the regional sweatshops.

Then again, AA is losing so much money so quickly and in such prosperous times that it might not be able to survive the increased labor costs lol.

I assume they would probably also rather just take the planes and put us out of a job.

They donít have to. The legacy, LCC and ACMI demand is slowly killing the regional outsourced model. They wonít expend capital to get what they can sit back and watch happen.

Itís not just the pilots... itís the FAís, mechanics, and all the office staff, ground support, management and training staff.

NotoriousCPZ
02-21-2020, 05:11 AM
I was given a CJO at Envoy in January 2016, and passed up an April class date for a job at Compass. I have since moved on to my dream job. I am curious though...I was told it would be roughly 4.5 years to flow in my interview, meaning I would be headed to AAL in a few months provided the recruiters weren't lying or flat out wrong. This of course does not seem to be the case.

How far off were they?

NoValueAviator
02-21-2020, 05:22 AM
I was given a CJO at Envoy in January 2016, and passed up an April class date for a job at Compass. I have since moved on to my dream job. I am curious though...I was told it would be roughly 4.5 years to flow in my interview, meaning I would be headed to AAL in a few months provided the recruiters weren't lying or flat out wrong. This of course does not seem to be the case.

How far off were they?

You probably would've gone in 1Q 2021, assuming the flow keeps moving apace. Many 2016 hires are actually experiencing better projected flow times than recruiters promised because of how things shaped up, with peak ez mode occuring for June-ish '16 DOH.

Pedro4President
02-21-2020, 05:36 AM
I was given a CJO at Envoy in January 2016, and passed up an April class date for a job at Compass. I have since moved on to my dream job. I am curious though...I was told it would be roughly 4.5 years to flow in my interview, meaning I would be headed to AAL in a few months provided the recruiters weren't lying or flat out wrong. This of course does not seem to be the case.

How far off were they?

4.8ish years to flow ..... so they were off a couple months.

Bassman1985
02-22-2020, 07:48 AM
I was given a CJO at Envoy in January 2016, and passed up an April class date for a job at Compass. I have since moved on to my dream job. I am curious though...I was told it would be roughly 4.5 years to flow in my interview, meaning I would be headed to AAL in a few months provided the recruiters weren't lying or flat out wrong. This of course does not seem to be the case.

How far off were they?

Sounds like you wouldíve been in my class. Hired April 25, 2016, expected flow date currently Feb 1, 2021. Was originally October or November 2021 ~3 years ago when I discovered the interactive seniority list.

THKooj
02-22-2020, 07:57 AM
4.8ish years to flow ..... so they were off a couple months.

Bravo sir. It's nice when someone tells the truth on here. You are exactly correct. The projections were and are correct.

Cyio
02-22-2020, 08:13 AM
Bravo sir. It's nice when someone tells the truth on here. You are exactly correct. The projections were and are correct.
I donít think anyone here has said that there wouldnít be a select band to get that five year flow. Itís what happens after this group that is the point of contention. Latest union list has people out too 8 or 9 years now for a new hire.

tommy2times
02-22-2020, 08:18 AM
Bravo sir. It's nice when someone tells the truth on here. You are exactly correct. The projections were and are correct.

I canít last another 6 months longer here with these horse manure work rules, pay and QOL issues and you are talking about hanging here another 5 years in this job market. Bravo Sir! Jones Town... Cool Aid... Keep on drinking....

Pedro4President
02-22-2020, 03:00 PM
Bravo sir. It's nice when someone tells the truth on here. You are exactly correct. The projections were and are correct.
Yup. I wish you would start telling the truth!!

georgiaflyer
02-22-2020, 04:54 PM
The flow is a very nice thing to have 5.5 years or not

JonSnow
03-06-2020, 03:41 AM
is COVID-19 gonna slow down AA hiring?

https://www.vox.com/the-goods/2020/3/5/21166359/us-airlines-coronavirus-cancel-flights-waiving-fees

CLE to IAH
03-06-2020, 03:44 AM
is COVID-19 gonna slow down AA hiring?

https://www.vox.com/the-goods/2020/3/5/21166359/us-airlines-coronavirus-cancel-flights-waiving-fees
vox LoL.


What does the onion have to say about it? Or tmz??

ninerdriver
03-06-2020, 04:03 AM
What does the onion have to say about it? Or tmz??
"I have a gun, I'll be fine."

https://www.theonion.com/cdc-warns-of-u-s-coronavirus-outbreak-1841940718

JonSnow
03-06-2020, 04:18 AM
vox LoL.


What does the onion have to say about it? Or tmz??
are you saying hiring wonít stop?

Cyio
03-06-2020, 05:01 AM
is COVID-19 gonna slow down AA hiring?

https://www.vox.com/the-goods/2020/3/5/21166359/us-airlines-coronavirus-cancel-flights-waiving-fees
I donít think so. They are already about to start human trials on a vaccine, not that everyone needs it but still. I donít see this impacting travel in the long term. Hell my commute was still oversold on every flight for the entire day of that means anything.

THKooj
03-06-2020, 06:11 AM
is COVID-19 gonna slow down AA hiring?

https://www.vox.com/the-goods/2020/3/5/21166359/us-airlines-coronavirus-cancel-flights-waiving-fees

Flow will absolutely not slow down. In fact, I would suspect some good news on bigger numbers for the flow in the near future.

skyemiles2
03-06-2020, 08:18 AM
Flow will absolutely not slow down. In fact, I would suspect some good news on bigger numbers for the flow in the near future.

By flow do you mean ďflowbackĒ?

CLE to IAH
03-06-2020, 10:40 AM
How do you put someone on ignore? Itís a shame I have to ask

BIueSideUp
03-06-2020, 11:36 AM
Flow will absolutely not slow down. In fact, I would suspect some good news on bigger numbers for the flow in the near future.

Isn't 8-9 years already big enough?

jake cutter
03-07-2020, 05:01 AM
How do you put someone on ignore? Itís a shame I have to ask



If youíre using Tapa, click on the user name and in their profile, click the three dots in upper corner.

Cyio
03-07-2020, 05:42 AM
How do you put someone on ignore? Itís a shame I have to ask
User CP -> Edit Ignore List

Then add the User's name to that list.

CLE to IAH
03-07-2020, 06:24 AM
User CP -> Edit Ignore List

Then add the User's name to that list.
done. Thanks.

SparrowBird
03-07-2020, 09:32 PM
Flow will absolutely not slow down. In fact, I would suspect some good news on bigger numbers for the flow in the near future.

Are you drunk?

Paid2fly
03-07-2020, 11:29 PM
Are you drunk?




On the finest high octane Kool-aid!


;)



:D

paulhood
03-08-2020, 08:40 AM
Yes, everybody up to and including the 824 had AA seniority numbers while still at Eagle and carried over some time. We were all in the AA $uper$aver 401k back then too... not the Eaglevoy red headed stepchild 401k plan. ICE benefits went away post bankruptcy and then came back in the current limited fashion.

They need to restore the 50% flow. Thatís what had pilots coming to Eaglevoy, not 17%

Better yet, let AA HR do the hiring at Eaglevoy and bump the flow up to 60%.

The 824 did NOT get AA seniority numbers while at Envoy, they did carry longevity, but did not have AA numbers.

Al Czervik
03-09-2020, 07:39 AM
The 824 did NOT get AA seniority numbers while at Envoy, they did carry longevity, but did not have AA numbers.

longevity for pay at AA?

But seriously
03-09-2020, 08:06 AM
longevity for pay at AA?

As I recall, the got company longevity for vacation, 401K, non-rev, etc. They did not get longevity pay as pilots. The group that went just before the 824 did get some form of longevity for pay. Thatís all from memory though, so take it for what itís worth.

nimslow
03-10-2020, 08:15 AM
My numbers may be off a little, as it's been a long time.

Under the original Supplement W agreement, when an eagle pilot completed OE on the RJ, they were placed on the AA seniority list, as if they had attended the next new hire class after they checked out. But came to AA on first year pay.

The first 125 had an 18 month training lock at Eagle. They flowed to AA on first year pay, but they kept their AMR "company hire date" for vacation accrual and some other benefits.

Then 9/11 happened, and the flow stopped.

Over the years, there were several grievances filed on both sides. One of those, Eagle ALPA argued that TWA pilots who were furloughed from TWA LLC, without ever attending indoc at AA should be considered as new hires, for the purpose of the agreement. And when they were recalled to AA in 2008, there should have been 50% flow throughs in those classes. The arbitrator agreed with that.

The remedy for that grievance created the "286" and the "824". The "286" flowed to AA starting in 2011, but their pay dates were in 2008, when the arbitrator said they should have been allowed to flow with the TWA recalls.

The "286" came to AA on 4th year pay, fully vested in the A fund, the company owed them 3 years of B fund contributions, at S80 FO reserve pay. They also kept their AMR company seniority, so they had five weeks of vacation, and carried their short term sick banks over.

I believe the 824 kept their AMR company seniority, and carried the sick banks over as well, but started on first year pay.

at6d
03-10-2020, 09:11 AM
The 125 had bidding seniority in new hire class, didnít they?

nimslow
03-10-2020, 09:25 AM
The 125 had bidding seniority in new hire class, didnít they?

When the 125 actually got to AA, they had 18 months of bidding seniority at AA (10 years+ for the 824, but that was pretty much on the bottom at that point).

havick206
03-10-2020, 01:52 PM
So I just read that AA has followed suit with UA and our off new hire classes.

rld1k
03-10-2020, 01:58 PM
So I just read that AA has followed suit with UA and our off new hire classes.

Source?

..

havick206
03-10-2020, 02:03 PM
Source?

..

Itís floating around the mainline thread. DP on a JP Morgan call, and then last interview group not getting CJOís jives with that.

wiz5422
03-11-2020, 09:56 AM
I hope no one came here for the flow? If AA isn't hiring Envoy isn't flowing.

Be prepared if AA starts to furlough for flowbacks to start being talked about again. It has been floating around the AA campus the past few days

HalyardJammer
03-11-2020, 10:29 AM
I hope no one came here for the flow? If AA isn't hiring Envoy isn't flowing.

Be prepared if AA starts to furlough for flowbacks to start being talked about again. It has been floating around the AA campus the past few days
There is no provision in the contract for flowbacks. Cannot happen as currently written.

cactipilot
03-11-2020, 11:10 AM
There is no provision in the contract for flowbacks. Cannot happen as currently written.
What does the current policy about the flowback say?

buddies8
03-11-2020, 11:29 AM
It does not say anything, flowbaxk is not in our contract. Now if they give group 1 pay here to everyone then I may consider them to flow back to the bottom of the envoy seniority list, that's the only way.

But seriously
03-11-2020, 12:48 PM
It does not say anything, flowbaxk is not in our contract. Now if they give group 1 pay here to everyone then I may consider them to flow back to the bottom of the envoy seniority list, that's the only way.

Donít even bring it up. It doesnít exist and it worked out TERRIBLY the last time it did. If they want to give us Group 1 pay, they can move the 175s to mainline and pay us over there.

buddies8
03-11-2020, 01:02 PM
Even better.

AOLfreetrial
03-11-2020, 01:34 PM
Brace yourselves for the email tonight or tomorrow morning.

highfarfast
03-11-2020, 01:41 PM
Brace yourselves for the email tonight or tomorrow morning.

What email?

CaseTractor
03-11-2020, 01:51 PM
Brace yourselves for the email tonight or tomorrow morning.

is winter coming?

havick206
03-11-2020, 03:08 PM
Last AA class is Mar 17. Everyone after that has been notified apparently that classes are postponed/cancelled.

MEGAFUPM
03-11-2020, 03:22 PM
Email sent.

lavMan
03-11-2020, 03:26 PM
[QUOTE=But seriously;2994466]Donít even bring it up. It doesnít exist and it worked out TERRIBLY the last time it did. If they want to give us Group 1 pay, they can move the 175s to mainline and pay us over there

Hows the saying go? Wish in one hand, and 💩 in the other. See which one fills up faster?

Cyio
03-11-2020, 04:05 PM
Well if the flow already wasnít slow enough, this just made it much worse. Figure six months extra at BEST before leaving.

CLE to IAH
03-11-2020, 04:29 PM
TH you good?

Pedro4President
03-11-2020, 05:57 PM
Fortunately, you're wrong. This time, the flow is contractual. It's not going to stop.

BOOM! The flow stopped! Now you can take all your lies and BS and apologize to everyone here.

Paid2fly
03-11-2020, 06:16 PM
BOOM! The flow stopped! Now you can take all your lies and BS and apologize to everyone here.



;)



:eek:

NoValueAviator
03-11-2020, 06:21 PM
For those looking, Envoy now flowing 0 per month until further notice.

highfarfast
03-11-2020, 06:22 PM
For those looking, Envoy now flowing 0 per month until further notice.

Wow, that flow thing is one hell of a BACKUP plan!

amcnd
03-11-2020, 07:41 PM
Stick with it. This happened to me after 9/11. Wait it out. Yes it may be 6 months, 2 years or even 15... but it will be worth it in the end...

highfarfast
03-11-2020, 08:23 PM
Stick with it. This happened to me after 9/11. Wait it out. Yes it may be 6 months, 2 years or even 15... but it will be worth it in the end...

Yeah, I get it. If AA is your one and only true love you have no choice.

I've never understood 'flow is a backup' though. Flow is tied to hiring. If everyone is hiring, then no one needs flow (unless you have black marks are your resume, then flow is not a backup, it's your only 'in'). If no one is hiring, AA isn't either, which means no flow.

in2deep
03-12-2020, 07:19 AM
Flow will absolutely not slow down. In fact, I would suspect some good news on bigger numbers for the flow in the near future.



This didnít age well

rld1k
03-12-2020, 07:20 AM
This didnít age well

Those big numbers he was talking about were not hiring numbers.

Thkooj won't post again until this blows over. Probably under a new name like he does.

JustAsking
03-12-2020, 08:17 AM
For those looking, Envoy now flowing 0 per month until further notice.Yeah, but AA and the others are hiring zero as well so nobody is "beating" the flow anymore.

Cujo665
03-12-2020, 12:24 PM
The 824 did NOT get AA seniority numbers while at Envoy, they did carry longevity, but did not have AA numbers.

you're correct, ďnotĒ should have been in there. Curse of thinking faster than typing

NoValueAviator
03-13-2020, 05:12 AM
Yeah, but AA and the others are hiring zero as well so nobody is "beating" the flow anymore.

idk man, from my perspective the only possible silver lining is that this debacle gives attrition time to eat at the envoy list without tens of thousands of guys getting picked up mil/ots at AA ahead of those of us who end up flowing

however, attrition is probably going to be slowing now with every recruitment department representing a minimally desirable career throwing the boards out

Chato
03-14-2020, 11:41 AM
Flow will absolutely not slow down. In fact, I would suspect some good news on bigger numbers for the flow in the near future.

So the company cheerleader finally went quiet. Where u been bruhh. Cr700? Hello?

pitchattitude
03-14-2020, 01:52 PM
So the company cheerleader finally went quiet. Where u been bruhh. Cr700? Hello?
That being said, I honestly would not have minded eating crow and him being correct, even if the situation hadnít take a turn south.
Certainly never expected him to be THIS wrong and it is unfortunate for all that he is.

But seriously
03-14-2020, 03:17 PM
That being said, I honestly would not have minded eating crow and him being correct, even if the situation hadnít take a turn south.
Certainly never expected him to be THIS wrong and it is unfortunate for all that he is.

True. However being able to mock his ridiculousness is at least a minuscule silver lining on a VERY dark cloud.

Cyio
03-15-2020, 05:32 AM
True. However being able to mock his ridiculousness is at least a minuscule silver lining on a VERY dark cloud.
This. Plus we never have to listen to their words of wisdom again.

Excargodog
03-15-2020, 08:13 PM
Wow, that flow thing is one hell of a BACKUP plan!

The only flow anyone will be seeing any time soon is....



https://i.ibb.co/1Gxj7S0/0-F57-E2-C3-E7-FD-4145-B4-CE-A6-C3-EAECEBEB.jpg (https://ibb.co/B2RFc1f)

FetaCheese
03-15-2020, 11:06 PM
I've never posted in an Envoy thread before..but I can't hold back anymore. No offense..but you guys are dense. How can Envoy flow if AA isn't hiring? How can anyone flow? How can anyone get hired?

Spoiler: you can't. Nobody will flow or get hired until we start to run classes again here at AA. It's amazing how a group of you take AA's hiring plans and turn it around on Envoy..as if anything has anything to do with Envoy or flow.

Put your panties back on. Once we start hiring again, Envoy will resume flowing. Until then, nobody is getting hired in front of you. Not here at AA or at Delta, United or anywhere else.

BigZ
03-15-2020, 11:10 PM
I've never posted in an Envoy thread before..but I can't hold back anymore. No offense..but you guys are dense. How can Envoy flow if AA isn't hiring? How can anyone flow? How can anyone get hired?

Spoiler: you can't. Nobody will flow or get hired until we start to run classes again here at AA. It's amazing how a group of you take AA's hiring plans and turn it around on Envoy..as if anything has anything to do with Envoy or flow.

Put your panties back on. Once we start hiring again, Envoy will resume flowing. Until then, nobody is getting hired in front of you. Not here at AA or at Delta, United or anywhere else.
That poster flies for Compass

FAIPMAFIA
03-16-2020, 03:38 AM
That poster flies for Compass

No he spoke the truth. Everyone here wants to flow but you guys are forgetting that momma doesnít want more kids.

CLE to IAH
03-16-2020, 03:57 AM
I've never posted in an Envoy thread before..but I can't hold back anymore. No offense..but you guys are dense. How can Envoy flow if AA isn't hiring? How can anyone flow? How can anyone get hired?

Spoiler: you can't. Nobody will flow or get hired until we start to run classes again here at AA. It's amazing how a group of you take AA's hiring plans and turn it around on Envoy..as if anything has anything to do with Envoy or flow.

Put your panties back on. Once we start hiring again, Envoy will resume flowing. Until then, nobody is getting hired in front of you. Not here at AA or at Delta, United or anywhere else.
thank you for your contribution. I look forward to your next post.

senecacaptain
03-16-2020, 05:07 AM
thank you for your contribution. I look forward to your next post.

to be honest, from reading recent posts (by many) here, a lot of people have their heads in the sand. I agree with his post

BigZ
03-16-2020, 05:34 AM
No he spoke the truth. Everyone here wants to flow but you guys are forgetting that momma doesnít want more kids.
JFC, everyone here is overdoing on drama

NoValueAviator
03-16-2020, 05:45 AM
Everyone at Envoy is aware we donít flow when AA is not hiring. After you guys furlough and go bankrupt, we may not flow anyone ever again lol.

Itís Time to update your resume.

FAIPMAFIA
03-16-2020, 05:48 AM
[QUOTE=BigZ;2999955]JFC, everyone here is overdoing on drama[/QUOTE Dude chill out!

LuscombeGuy
03-16-2020, 05:48 AM
If AA furloughs, can they "flow back" to their regional partners? I think that is how it worked after 9/11.

NoValueAviator
03-16-2020, 05:53 AM
If AA furloughs, can they "flow back" to their regional partners? I think that is how it worked after 9/11.

nah thatís gone, probably got traded for more $$$ at some point. everything Iíve heard from both sides suggests it was a disaster anyway

FollowMe
03-16-2020, 05:55 AM
Recruiter told me I am guaranteed a job at AA in less than 5 years, seems too good to pass up, why doesnít everyone work for Envoy?

Pilot Dad
03-16-2020, 07:44 AM
Recruiter told me I am guaranteed a job at AA in less than 5 years, seems too good to pass up, why doesnít everyone work for Envoy?


https://media0.giphy.com/media/wWue0rCDOphOE/giphy.gif


Sent from my iPhone using Tapatalk

Pedro4President
03-17-2020, 01:18 AM
I've never posted in an Envoy thread before..but I can't hold back anymore. No offense..but you guys are dense. How can Envoy flow if AA isn't hiring? How can anyone flow? How can anyone get hired?

Spoiler: you can't. Nobody will flow or get hired until we start to run classes again here at AA. It's amazing how a group of you take AA's hiring plans and turn it around on Envoy..as if anything has anything to do with Envoy or flow.

Put your panties back on. Once we start hiring again, Envoy will resume flowing. Until then, nobody is getting hired in front of you. Not here at AA or at Delta, United or anywhere else.

huh? What are you talking about? I think you are the dense person. We all know flow has stopped. Everyone here at Envoy knows flow has stopped. Flow has done stopped. The only question we have is how long will AA stop hiring.

All post about still flowing are either other airline groups or sarcastic posts. So pull your panties up boomer and run along and enjoy that 55 hours of pay for staying home. Your APA did pretty good on that LOA.

rld1k
03-17-2020, 04:52 AM
If hiring does start again those 62-65 that took retirement will be replaced with off the street hires while envoy trickles in 20 a month

Cujo665
03-18-2020, 01:51 AM
So the company cheerleader finally went quiet. Where u been bruhh. Cr700? Hello?

He probably realized heíll be in the first group walking if things donít go well.

stbloc
03-18-2020, 06:31 PM
If AA furloughs, can they "flow back" to their regional partners? I think that is how it worked after 9/11.
IF? You serious? I would bet any amount of money AA ends up in chapter 11. You will be lucky if they exit chapter 11 50% of their size today. I want you to think about this, AA has more debt then all other airlines combined. If you think the feds are going to give them free money you are delusional. That money will need to be repaid as well. So letís say the virus goes away next week. It will take 2 years to get load factors back. How is AA going to repay their debt with the loss in revenue? Chapter 11!

rld1k
03-18-2020, 08:22 PM
IF? You serious? I would bet any amount of money AA ends up in chapter 11. You will be lucky if they exit chapter 11 50% of their size today. I want you to think about this, AA has more debt then all other airlines combined. If you think the feds are going to give them free money you are delusional. That money will need to be repaid as well. So letís say the virus goes away next week. It will take 2 years to get load factors back. How is AA going to repay their debt with the loss in revenue? Chapter 11!

Are you even a pilot? Looking at your post history you have been asking about what airline to go to for 3 years. Must be nice to have all that industry experience to draw on.

BigZ
03-18-2020, 08:43 PM
IF? You serious? I would bet any amount of money AA ends up in chapter 11. You will be lucky if they exit chapter 11 50% of their size today. I want you to think about this, AA has more debt then all other airlines combined. If you think the feds are going to give them free money you are delusional. That money will need to be repaid as well. So letís say the virus goes away next week. It will take 2 years to get load factors back. How is AA going to repay their debt with the loss in revenue? Chapter 11!
https://pics.me.me/why-so-serious-memegenerator-ne-why-so-serious-joker-why-53128475.png

NoValueAviator
03-19-2020, 06:08 AM
If you're so sure AA is going under, show us your short position.

That said, I agree it looks terrible. AA can't even get 10 flights cancelled in the time it took Delta to drop 70% of their seats from the market. AA is taking great care of their mainline employees, but they're hanging everyone at the subsidiaries out to dry bad. We're all just flying empty jets around waiting for the shoe to drop... or to get sick and lose our medicals.

If you haven't looked at FM1 lately, if you end up going to the hospital you'll need to go convince a doctor (who is probably going to be panicking about the fact that you had coronavirus) to sign paperwork certifying you are fit to return to duty before you can come back off unpaid medical leave. There is no "self-clearing sick" after a hospitalization. [MOD EDIT]

Cyio
03-19-2020, 06:30 AM
If you're so sure AA is going under, show us your short position.

That said, I agree it looks terrible. AA can't even get 10 flights cancelled in the time it took Delta to drop 70% of their seats from the market. AA is taking great care of their mainline employees, but they're hanging everyone at the subsidiaries out to dry bad. We're all just flying empty jets around waiting for the shoe to drop... or to get sick and lose our medicals.

If you haven't looked at FM1 lately, if you end up going to the hospital you'll need to go convince a doctor (who is probably going to be panicking about the fact that you had coronavirus) to sign paperwork certifying you are fit to return to duty before you can come back off unpaid medical leave. There is no "self-clearing sick" after a hospitalization. It might be better to ride it out at home, and if you die you die.
ďIf he dies, he diesĒ. 😂

To the rest you are correct although I wouldnít imagine a doctor having a problem giving you the all clear if you had recovered. Who knows though, uncharted territory we are in.

NoValueAviator
03-19-2020, 06:55 AM
ďIf he dies, he diesĒ. 😂

To the rest you are correct although I wouldnít imagine a doctor having a problem giving you the all clear if you had recovered. Who knows though, uncharted territory we are in.

Put yourself in the doctor's shoes. Statistically, he's already been sued by a former patient. He's looking at signing a document that says he thinks you are fit to go fly an airplane, a job with extremely stringent medical/fitness standards, in a highly litigious society.

The people who already have a solid relationship with a PCP are going to be the ones who have an easy time. Might be a good point right now to go get a "checkup" and make nice lol

Cyio
03-19-2020, 07:54 AM
Put yourself in the doctor's shoes. Statistically, he's already been sued by a former patient. He's looking at signing a document that says he thinks you are fit to go fly an airplane, a job with extremely stringent medical/fitness standards, in a highly litigious society.

The people who already have a solid relationship with a PCP are going to be the ones who have an easy time. Might be a good point right now to go get a "checkup" and make nice lol
True, I guess I am one of the ones that has a fantastic relationship with my PCP.

wildcat1
03-22-2020, 02:02 PM
If you're so sure AA is going under, show us your short position.

That said, I agree it looks terrible. AA can't even get 10 flights cancelled in the time it took Delta to drop 70% of their seats from the market. AA is taking great care of their mainline employees, but they're hanging everyone at the subsidiaries out to dry bad. We're all just flying empty jets around waiting for the shoe to drop... or to get sick and lose our medicals.

If you haven't looked at FM1 lately, if you end up going to the hospital you'll need to go convince a doctor (who is probably going to be panicking about the fact that you had coronavirus) to sign paperwork certifying you are fit to return to duty before you can come back off unpaid medical leave. There is no "self-clearing sick" after a hospitalization. It might be better to ride it out at home, and if you die you die.

Nobody should listen to this. Your AME will clear you to go back to work with no problems at all. Don't let him fear monger you.

sanicom3205
03-22-2020, 02:14 PM
Put yourself in the doctor's shoes. Statistically, he's already been sued by a former patient. He's looking at signing a document that says he thinks you are fit to go fly an airplane, a job with extremely stringent medical/fitness standards, in a highly litigious society.

The people who already have a solid relationship with a PCP are going to be the ones who have an easy time. Might be a good point right now to go get a "checkup" and make nice lol

HAHAHAHA

If you mean fitness burger in my mouth.

NoValueAviator
03-22-2020, 04:22 PM
Nobody should listen to this. Your AME will clear you to go back to work with no problems at all. Don't let him fear monger you.

There's no reason to be afraid of anything. It is what it is and people should plan accordingly.

You can call your AME and ask him what would happen if you came in with lasting lung damage and a little paper for him to sign saying there's no possible way your medical condition could interfere with your job. That's where the rubber meets the road, ultimately.

Most doctors will recognize that we regularly have to do demanding cognitive tasks at cabin altitudes >7000 ft, and will want some assurance that you have no more lung damage before they sign you off. Have fun with that

highfarfast
03-22-2020, 04:48 PM
There's no reason to be afraid of anything. It is what it is and people should plan accordingly.

You can call your AME and ask him what would happen if you came in with lasting lung damage and a little paper for him to sign saying there's no possible way your medical condition could interfere with your job. That's where the rubber meets the road, ultimately.

Most doctors will recognize that we regularly have to do demanding cognitive tasks at cabin altitudes >7000 ft, and will want some assurance that you have no more lung damage before they sign you off. Have fun with that

Hell, I'm more worried about where to go for a medical at the moment. The only guy that does first class medicals in my town is probably 70 years old. His wife is his nurse and looks and acts older than that. I can't in good conscience go to them right now knowing the nature of my job puts me in contact with people that might have it, making me a carrier, and I might not know it yet when I go to them. And I'm due for another medical next month. :-\

Similar, but more vein, concern is that I'm due for a haircut... actually over due now... and my barber is 80 and smokes. I'm not going to anyone else. Guess I'll just have long and rough hair for now, FM1 be damned.

havick206
03-22-2020, 05:08 PM
Hell, I'm more worried about where to go for a medical at the moment. The only guy that does first class medicals in my town is probably 70 years old. His wife is his nurse and looks and acts older than that. I can't in good conscience go to them right now knowing the nature of my job puts me in contact with people that might have it, making me a carrier, and I might not know it yet when I go to them. And I'm due for another medical next month. :-\

Similar, but more vein, concern is that I'm due for a haircut... actually over due now... and my barber is 80 and smokes. I'm not going to anyone else. Guess I'll just have long and rough hair for now, FM1 be damned.


Theyíre medical professionals, they can take appropriate measures. No different to the old doctors working at ED, urgent care or family clinics. Let them decide whether they want to see you or not, they know the risks better than you.

highfarfast
03-22-2020, 06:40 PM
Theyíre medical professionals, they can take appropriate measures. No different to the old doctors working at ED, urgent care or family clinics. Let them decide whether they want to see you or not, they know the risks better than you.

I would rather see the FAA do what Canada has done and push medical dates out a few months.

black cat
03-22-2020, 07:21 PM
I would rather see the FAA do what Canada has done and push medical dates out a few months.

Currently in the works

pitchattitude
03-22-2020, 08:23 PM
Hell, I'm more worried about where to go for a medical at the moment. The only guy that does first class medicals in my town is probably 70 years old. His wife is his nurse and looks and acts older than that. I can't in good conscience go to them right now knowing the nature of my job puts me in contact with people that might have it, making me a carrier, and I might not know it yet when I go to them. And I'm due for another medical next month. :-\

Similar, but more vein, concern is that I'm due for a haircut... actually over due now... and my barber is 80 and smokes. I'm not going to anyone else. Guess I'll just have long and rough hair for now, FM1 be damned.
It seems like a lot of these AMEs are on their last legs. As it is every time I call to make an appointment for a physical Iím afraid the guy will have already packed it in.

highfarfast
03-22-2020, 08:29 PM
It seems like a lot of these AMEs are on their last legs. As it is every time I call to make an appointment for a physical Iím afraid the guy will have already packed it in.

Yes, I did worry about that before this infectious disease thing.

And, I did worry about my barber too. Perhaps more so. I see him a lot more often and he probably is set up for retirement a LOT less well than my AME.

OldBiff
03-23-2020, 05:43 AM
IF? You serious? I would bet any amount of money AA ends up in chapter 11. You will be lucky if they exit chapter 11 50% of their size today. I want you to think about this, AA has more debt then all other airlines combined. If you think the feds are going to give them free money you are delusional. That money will need to be repaid as well. So letís say the virus goes away next week. It will take 2 years to get load factors back. How is AA going to repay their debt with the loss in revenue? Chapter 11!

You know money is basically free right now? This chicken little act is getting old. Was it smart to accrue so much debt while juicing the share price with a buy back? No, but they just picked up a bunch of free money and essentially refinanced their debt. The bailout will bring more cash to the table. Honestly if youíre not isolating at home looking to restructure your own debt as this situation deepens then youíre doing it wrong.

Gooch
03-23-2020, 08:32 AM
Agree with you BiFF about personal debt but No bailout is gaurenteed at this point. Interesting times.

wildcat1
03-23-2020, 01:40 PM
There's no reason to be afraid of anything. It is what it is and people should plan accordingly.

You can call your AME and ask him what would happen if you came in with lasting lung damage and a little paper for him to sign saying there's no possible way your medical condition could interfere with your job. That's where the rubber meets the road, ultimately.

Most doctors will recognize that we regularly have to do demanding cognitive tasks at cabin altitudes >7000 ft, and will want some assurance that you have no more lung damage before they sign you off. Have fun with that

Bull...that is not what you said. You told pilots not to seek treatment and not to tell the FAA if they got it because they'd lose their career. That was reckless. That was dangerous. That was flat out stupid. At least you got your name right.

NoValueAviator
03-23-2020, 02:18 PM
Bull...that is not what you said. You told pilots not to seek treatment and not to tell the FAA if they got it because they'd lose their career. That was reckless. That was dangerous. That was flat out stupid. At least you got your name right.

if you can find a single post on here where I tell anyone to do anything I'll be v. impressed.

FAIPMAFIA
03-29-2020, 02:07 PM
I hope everyone is keeping their heads up. I know this is a wild guess but how long do you guys think it will be for AA to start hiring again? We where just debating this at the squadron. Iím guessing a year?

MqWhistleblower
03-29-2020, 02:14 PM
I go with a year as well

pitchattitude
03-29-2020, 04:32 PM
I hope everyone is keeping their heads up. I know this is a wild guess but how long do you guys think it will be for AA to start hiring again? We where just debating this at the squadron. Iím guessing a year?
Donít quit your day job...

highfarfast
03-29-2020, 05:30 PM
Iíll take the over on that.

rickair7777
03-29-2020, 05:33 PM
It seems like a lot of these AMEs are on their last legs. As it is every time I call to make an appointment for a physical Iím afraid the guy will have already packed it in.

Yeah, mine too. He's so old that he's not afraid of the FAA, so that's something.

FAIPMAFIA
03-29-2020, 05:53 PM
Donít quit your day job...

wait what? Lol 😂

pitchattitude
03-29-2020, 06:15 PM
wait what? Lol 😂
From your previous posts, it sounds like youíre on a Mil LOA. That makes it your day job now. Iíd be looking to keep those orders coming...

Skip0927
03-29-2020, 07:07 PM
Theyíre medical professionals, they can take appropriate measures. No different to the old doctors working at ED, urgent care or family clinics. Let them decide whether they want to see you or not, they know the risks better than you.

what does an old doctor working at erectile dysfunction clinics have to do with coronavirus? 🤣🤣🤣

havick206
03-29-2020, 08:22 PM
what does an old doctor working at erectile dysfunction clinics have to do with coronavirus? 🤣🤣🤣

At least they can self prescribe their own fun tickets.

FAIPMAFIA
03-29-2020, 08:27 PM
From your previous posts, it sounds like youíre on a Mil LOA. That makes it your day job now. Iíd be looking to keep those orders coming...

My bad bro! 😂 long day!

ZR29907
03-29-2020, 08:43 PM
I hope everyone is keeping their heads up. I know this is a wild guess but how long do you guys think it will be for AA to start hiring again? We where just debating this at the squadron. Iím guessing a year?

2023.


....filler....

rld1k
03-30-2020, 05:48 AM
August 2020

buddies8
03-30-2020, 06:12 AM
August 2020
none in 2020 from april and after. Maybe feb/mar 2022

rld1k
03-30-2020, 06:18 AM
none in 2020 from april and after. Maybe feb/mar 2022

That can't be true because they said I'd flow in 5 years

But seriously
03-30-2020, 07:09 AM
I think they may start a trickle of hiring Q3 of 2021. They wonít be up to full capacity hiring until 2022-2023.

Ready2board
03-31-2020, 08:17 AM
Better shine up those selfie skillz in flight and get some good headphones🤣

jake cutter
04-02-2020, 08:47 AM
I think they may start a trickle of hiring Q3 of 2021. They wonít be up to full capacity hiring until 2022-2023.



The music has definitely stopped. Itíll start back up. When and with what music, who knows.

6ix9ineYearFlow
04-04-2020, 09:17 AM
The music has definitely stopped. Itíll start back up. When and with what music, who knows.

Iím voting on an AA bankruptcy within 18 months.

Mozam
04-04-2020, 09:29 AM
Iím voting on an AA bankruptcy within 18 months.


Tough call, the stock is below 9 bucks a share . Could be a good buy .

havick206
04-04-2020, 09:36 AM
Tough call, the stock is below 9 bucks a share . Could be a good buy .

Warren Buffet just sold off a large chunk of his Delta and Southwest shares. Heís someone that has no reason to lock in his losses unless he sees his money disappearing entirely just to put things in perspective.

6ix9ineYearFlow
04-04-2020, 09:38 AM
Warren Buffet just sold off a large chunk of his Delta and Southwest shares. Heís someone that has no reason to lock in his losses unless he sees his money disappearing entirely just to put things in perspective.

Very good point. That is definitely not a vote of confidence for the state of the industry. Delta is as close to Ďinvestment gradeí as airlines go and their issuer credit was just downgraded to Ďjunkí by S&P Global Ratings.

Cyio
04-04-2020, 10:33 AM
Very good point. That is definitely not a vote of confidence for the state of the industry. Delta is as close to Ďinvestment gradeí as airlines go and their issuer credit was just downgraded to Ďjunkí by S&P Global Ratings.
Why do I keep logging onto this website lol. As if things couldn't have gotten much worse, we now have one of the greatest investment minds of all time dumping shares, after he already took losses. That is VERY bad news, like VERY. I am way less confident about things now that this news has come out.

daOldMan
04-04-2020, 10:37 AM
Why do I keep logging onto this website lol. As if things couldn't have gotten much worse, we now have one of the greatest investment minds of all time dumping shares, after he already took losses. That is VERY bad news, like VERY. I am way less confident about things now that this news has come out.

Very true.

On the bright side, the name of this thread is very fitting. It will be 5.5 years until anyone flows again.

FAIPMAFIA
04-04-2020, 04:06 PM
Very true.

On the bright side, the name of this thread is very fitting. It will be 5.5 years until anyone flows again.

I donít think so. You might see the first flow in late 2021.

buddies8
04-04-2020, 04:29 PM
Now that is truly a wild dream.

FAIPMAFIA
04-05-2020, 06:58 AM
Now that is truly a wild dream.

you donít think so brotha?

highfarfast
04-05-2020, 07:12 AM
you donít think so brotha?
I dont

AA will likely furlough come Oct and may start recalling them late 2021. Will have to get those furloughs back on property before flow starts back up.

pitchattitude
04-05-2020, 07:39 AM
I dont

AA will likely furlough come Oct and may start recalling them late 2021. Will have to get those furloughs back on property before flow starts back up.
Also have to remember that there are a number of 62+ year olds that have been offered early retirement. That will mean a large chunk that donít come back, but also means fewer retirements over the next three years as well.

senecacaptain
04-05-2020, 07:49 AM
My opinions

1. With XXX mainline jets parked, and a "revised business model post-COVID" (all the CEO's have said this...) this means the staffing requirements will be different. Indeed, XXX retirements but these may simply retire-down the numbers to the new-normal staffing requirements.

2. Nobody knows how soon, or even if, travel numbers will return to pre-COVID levels.

3. Some say the cheaper regionals, painted in mainline colors, may expand once this is done. Some say otherwise. UAL Kirby said this is the end of the 50-seater. What does this mean ? The new world is a bunch of 175's and CRJ-700s ? I don't know.

4. Cargo is going crazy but even cargo may be affected, if Big-3 get into the cargo business to keep the rent paid.

The CEO's themselves do not know what the new world will look like, so I doubt anybody on APC does.

Good Luck

nimslow
04-05-2020, 07:56 AM
Delta and United have both announced they will be smaller airlines on the back side of this thing. American isn't any different, they just haven't said it out loud yet.

Between the 190's, 757/767, A330-300's and the block 1 737's we are permanently retiring over 150 airplanes now, with rumors of the early 319/320's and some 777-200's to follow.

The retirements still work in our favor, but I wont be surprised if the seniority list shrinks between 3000-4000 when it's all said and done.

Cyio
04-05-2020, 08:11 AM
Delta and United have both announced they will be smaller airlines on the back side of this thing. American isn't any different, they just haven't said it out loud yet.

Between the 190's, 757/767, A330-300's and the block 1 737's we are permanently retiring over 150 airplanes now, with rumors of the early 319/320's and some 777-200's to follow.

The retirements still work in our favor, but I wont be surprised if the seniority list shrinks between 3000-4000 when it's all said and done.
Fa la la la la la, la la la laaaaaaaa.

at6d
04-05-2020, 09:19 PM
I was thinking fa ra ra

APCbot
04-06-2020, 06:58 AM
Flow will absolutely not slow down. In fact, I would suspect some good news on bigger numbers for the flow in the near future.

:eek:
Do you ever get tired of being wrong?

nootpilot
04-06-2020, 07:58 AM
:eek:
Do you ever get tired of being wrong?
Don't worry about him, he will be getting furlough AAround December or January...

ClappedOut145
04-13-2020, 02:34 PM
https://i.imgflip.com/3witiq.jpg (https://imgflip.com/i/3witiq)

Pedro4President
04-13-2020, 06:25 PM
I dont

AA will likely furlough come Oct and may start recalling them late 2021. Will have to get those furloughs back on property before flow starts back up.

The last sentence isnít entirely true. Flow and hiring can happen while pilots are still furloughed. Iím not up on AAs furlough contract but Iíd guess it allows a furloughed pilot a window of time to come back on property and once all pilots are back on property that want to be then hiring can resume again. It happened a couple years ago when the cut off date to return and a rush of pilots came back from furlough causing a few months of no flows.

Ijustlikeflying
04-15-2020, 11:55 AM
...yet not a single envoy original pilot has flowed to American. Only eagle original. Meanwhile they sure as hell pushed 5.5year flow to everyone for the last 6years.

ZR29907
04-15-2020, 12:09 PM
...yet not a single envoy original pilot has flowed to American. Only eagle original. Meanwhile they sure as hell pushed 5.5year flow to everyone for the last 6years.

and you bought it ha!

wildcat1
04-15-2020, 02:47 PM
To every FO that laughed at me when I said don't count on the flow, it will go away....I told you so.

NoValueAviator
04-15-2020, 02:54 PM
To every FO that laughed at me when I said don't count on the flow, it will go away....I told you so.

glad someone feels like a winner

Chato
04-15-2020, 03:39 PM
To every FO that laughed at me when I said don't count on the flow, it will go away....I told you so.

:rolleyes: yeah if airlines were hiring I probably wouldn't laugh so hard at this post. some people act like they could predict this type of thing.

highfarfast
04-15-2020, 07:32 PM
:rolleyes: yeah if airlines were hiring I probably wouldn't laugh so hard at this post. some people act like they could predict this type of thing.

Well, airlines WERE hiring. Flow was tied to hiring. Most people could beat flow to a major if they worked to make it happen (unless AA was your only choice, of course). There were those that said, "flow is a good backup"... well if hiring stops, so does flow. And that's exactly what happened. Flow is not a backup. It's a crutch. I'd be willing to bet there are a lot of pilots here that would have already moved on to major if it weren't for flow.

Air Stang 7
04-15-2020, 08:06 PM
Flow does better in a savings account in a downturn though.

rld1k
04-15-2020, 08:55 PM
Flow does better in a savings account in a downturn though.

Little known trick but I was able to get a mortgage underwriting by showing them the flow language in our CBA along with the brochure the recruiter gave me. It says right in there I'll be making 200k in a few years

Tyrion
04-15-2020, 09:07 PM
Little known trick but I was able to get a mortgage underwriting by showing them the flow language in our CBA along with the brochure the recruiter gave me. It says right in there I'll be making 200k in a few years

And that's why some people have big houses and futons. Glad some underwriter was easy on you, but one thing worse than not getting a mortgage is having a house payment you can't afford.

highfarfast
04-15-2020, 09:22 PM
And that's why some people have big houses and futons. Glad some underwriter was easy on you, but one thing worse than not getting a mortgage is having a house payment you can't afford.

That's kinda harsh but I have to admit I was thinking the same thing. Every single time I've bought a house, the bank told me I could afford more than what my own math told me I could. Never had to, or needed to, play games to get approved for something more.

That said, it's interesting that the banks are so eager to loan they'll take CBA language on flow. lol.

havick206
04-15-2020, 09:52 PM
Little known trick but I was able to get a mortgage underwriting by showing them the flow language in our CBA along with the brochure the recruiter gave me. It says right in there I'll be making 200k in a few years

Very scary if true. Here comes 2008 again.

rld1k
04-16-2020, 09:10 AM
that was a joke lol the underwriter actually said my paystubs look like hieroglyphics and he has no idea what I make

Skip0927
04-16-2020, 12:38 PM
that was a joke lol the underwriter actually said my paystubs look like hieroglyphics and he has no idea what I make

i feel the same about my paystub....

Gooch
04-16-2020, 02:49 PM
Qualified crop dusting flying is paying around 100k+ and more. Food for thought...and not the kind of stinky crop dusting the company has been doing to the pilot group.

wiz5422
04-17-2020, 04:46 AM
It might be wise for some of you to do some research on the old Eagle and the pilots that were hired in 1999 and 2000. They were told that they would be over at AA in less then 24 months.

Guess what....they were still there in 2011. This is worse then 9/11, plus AA just shrunk their retirement numbers by offering the early outs. Add that to them parking 3 fleets and possible furloughs you can start to add the dots that AA won't be hiring for some time, a long time. Welcome to the the new generation of the loss decade.

Cujo665
04-17-2020, 05:11 AM
It might be wise for some of you to do some research on the old Eagle and the pilots that were hired in 1999 and 2000. They were told that they would be over at AA in less then 24 months.

Guess what....they were still there in 2011. This is worse then 9/11, plus AA just shrunk their retirement numbers by offering the early outs. Add that to them parking 3 fleets and possible furloughs you can start to add the dots that AA won't be hiring for some time, a long time. Welcome to the the new generation of the loss decade.

I don't think it will be that long. After 9-11 we had the economic meltdown in 2008. Eagle had already started hiring two classes of 30 a month back in 2005-2006. In 2009 the first group of 35 flowed, and that was only 1 year into the post 2008 recovery.... and they didn't have the mass retirements then to help either. I think, that the AA downsizing will fit closely with the retirements and that your looking at about a 2 to 4 year wait for the flow to get going again above more than a drip. If they can time everything right, it's the two year number (perhaps even less). If not, then more towards the 4 years.

It's also an opportunity for them to avoid BK. This slowdown gives them the opportunity to restructure and reorganize; and return as a smaller leaner meaner AA.

amcnd
04-17-2020, 06:15 AM
I don't think it will be that long. After 9-11 we had the economic meltdown in 2008. Eagle had already started hiring two classes of 30 a month back in 2005-2006. In 2009 the first group of 35 flowed, and that was only 1 year into the post 2008 recovery.... and they didn't have the mass retirements then to help either. I think, that the AA downsizing will fit closely with the retirements and that your looking at about a 2 to 4 year wait for the flow to get going again above more than a drip. If they can time everything right, it's the two year number (perhaps even less). If not, then more towards the 4 years.

It's also an opportunity for them to avoid BK. This slowdown gives them the opportunity to restructure and reorganize; and return as a smaller leaner meaner AA.

I was at Eagle for the mergers and 9/11. I agree right now, early retirements just caused a 3-4 year pause in the flow. But the second they furlough... if that happens add another 5 years to the pause in flow..

caution on mergers. If that happens again to the WOís. Its not fun... The BizEX merger was the pitfall for me..

rld1k
04-17-2020, 10:25 AM
It might be wise for some of you to do some research on the old Eagle and the pilots that were hired in 1999 and 2000. They were told that they would be over at AA in less then 24 months.

Guess what....they were still there in 2011. This is worse then 9/11, plus AA just shrunk their retirement numbers by offering the early outs. Add that to them parking 3 fleets and possible furloughs you can start to add the dots that AA won't be hiring for some time, a long time. Welcome to the the new generation of the loss decade.

This is not worse than 9/11, I don't know why people keep parroting that. This is looking like a V shaped recovery more and more every day. The retirement numbers were reduced by about 5%. With the time lost not hiring it is a non factor. It'll be a year delay or so.

THKooj
04-17-2020, 10:59 AM
This is not worse than 9/11, I don't know why people keep parroting that. This is looking like a V shaped recovery more and more every day. The retirement numbers were reduced by about 5%. With the time lost not hiring it is a non factor. It'll be a year delay or so.

^^^^This guy gets it. Except I think it will be quite a bit quicker than what you described.

But seriously
04-17-2020, 11:04 AM
This is not worse than 9/11, I don't know why people keep parroting that. This is looking like a V shaped recovery more and more every day. The retirement numbers were reduced by about 5%. With the time lost not hiring it is a non factor. It'll be a year delay or so.

Umm... because every airline analyst and CEO are saying it. Not to mention anyone who has walked through an airport in the last month.

For the airline industry it is clearly and objectively WAY worse. Will it be worse for pilot careers than 9/11 followed by the 2008 recession with a retirement age change thrown in? THATís still TBD.

buddies8
04-17-2020, 12:00 PM
You need money to buy a ticket. No job, no money ergo no airline ticket.

pitchattitude
04-17-2020, 12:38 PM
This is not worse than 9/11, I don't know why people keep parroting that. This is looking like a V shaped recovery more and more every day. The retirement numbers were reduced by about 5%. With the time lost not hiring it is a non factor. It'll be a year delay or so.
Uh... And how can you say that when there is NO indication things have even hit bottom to see a recovery?

The US is at historical high 15% unemployment which is on par with the Great Depression. 9/11 followed by the 2008 RECESSION didnít have those kind of numbers.

dera
04-17-2020, 01:11 PM
Uh... And how can you say that when there is NO indication things have even hit bottom to see a recovery?

The US is at historical high 15% unemployment which is on par with the Great Depression. 9/11 followed by the 2008 RECESSION didnít have those kind of numbers.

Let's get our facts right.
"The highest rate of U.S. unemployment was 24.9% in 1933, during the Great Depression".

It's bad, but no-one predicts these numbers to stay that high after they start reopening the economy.

WiFly
04-17-2020, 01:20 PM
The silver lining could be that unlike the Great Depression or 2008, this was not an obvious failure of our system. This has not resulted from a bank run or negligent credit rating agencies. It was an intentional shutdown for public health concerns, the likes of which has never been seen before. We are in uncharted territory and nobody truly knows what is going to happen.

pitchattitude
04-17-2020, 01:51 PM
Let's get our facts right.
"The highest rate of U.S. unemployment was 24.9% in 1933, during the Great Depression".

It's bad, but no-one predicts these numbers to stay that high after they start reopening the economy.
OK. So my source was incorrect. I guess all sources should be suspect. Maybe we havenít reached those levels, yet. This still hasnít hit bottom, so how can anyone accurately predict how bad it will get or how long it will take to recover?

The other reality is when it does recover, what it recovers to will be different. Iím not saying there will be a paradigm shift, but there WILL be social changes that undoubtedly affect much of life, including travel, permanently.

Tomhawker
04-17-2020, 02:07 PM
The other reality is when it does recover, what it recovers to will be different. Iím not saying there will be a paradigm shift, but there WILL be social changes that undoubtedly affect much of life, including travel, permanently.
No one knows at this point. What we can see is that a paradigm shift has at least been introduced thatís opened the door to a host of potential lifestyle changes. I think weíve been too eager to accept them without considering the consequences. I also think the response to this has missed the mark for preserving the lifestyles weíve enjoyed. Air travel seems to be one of the most dispensable options when considering the potential casualties of a knee-jerk overreaction.

rld1k
04-17-2020, 03:25 PM
Uh... And how can you say that when there is NO indication things have even hit bottom to see a recovery?

The US is at historical high 15% unemployment which is on par with the Great Depression. 9/11 followed by the 2008 RECESSION didnít have those kind of numbers.

No indication we've hit the bottom? We're trading at january 2020 levels right now. It's about as V shaped as you can get. Unemployment is high but when everything opens it will go right back down.

By not being worse than 9/11 I'm talking about career progression.

dera
04-17-2020, 03:53 PM
Economy is still spring loaded to bounce back. If they keep it shut down longer, it might diminish.
The moment everything opens up, I am going to drink a ton at bars and eat at restaurants. I miss normal life. And I think a lot of others feel the same way. And that takes care of a large chunk of those 15% who are unfortunately unemployed at this time.

But seriously
04-17-2020, 03:58 PM
No indication we've hit the bottom? We're trading at january 2020 levels right now. It's about as V shaped as you can get. Unemployment is high but when everything opens it will go right back down.

By not being worse than 9/11 I'm talking about career progression.

This is just blatantly false. The DJIA is down more than 5000 points from Jan and the airlines are all down more than 50%.
AAG just took a government bailout for more than the entire market cap of the company.

Yeah, the economy is just roaring along.

dera
04-17-2020, 03:59 PM
This is just blatantly false. The DJIA is down more than 5000 points from Jan and the airlines are all down more than 50%.
AAG just took a government bailout for more than the entire market cap of the company.

Yeah, the economy is just roaring along.

Their market cap is way lower than their liquidity, so who cares about that number right now?

rld1k
04-17-2020, 04:11 PM
This is just blatantly false. The DJIA is down more than 5000 points from Jan and the airlines are all down more than 50%.
AAG just took a government bailout for more than the entire market cap of the company.

Yeah, the economy is just roaring along.

Sorry I was thinking of my option positions. We're two weeks away from Jan 2020 levels.

FetaCheese
04-17-2020, 05:28 PM
To every FO that laughed at me when I said don't count on the flow, it will go away....I told you so.

Flow didn't go away, Einstein. AA stopped hiring. Major difference..and if you can't understand that then you shouldn't be allowed anywhere near an airplane unless you're restocking the toilet paper.

TransWorld
04-17-2020, 06:54 PM
Uh... And how can you say that when there is NO indication things have even hit bottom to see a recovery?

The US is at historical high 15% unemployment which is on par with the Great Depression. 9/11 followed by the 2008 RECESSION didnít have those kind of numbers.

Remember the stock market increases are a leading economic indicator. Unemployment is lagging. What that means is the stock market looks ahead 6 to 12 months, anticipating what is going to happen. After business starts picking up, then hiring takes place. If you are waiting for an all clear signal before getting in the stock market, you are too late. This is not me saying this, it is my investment management firm (and many others) who say this; loud and clear.

The unemployment rate in the Great Depression did hit 24.9%. And underemployment was probably another 50%. My grandfather lost his job as a teller at the bank when it failed. Went to work at the gas company doing door to door collections of overdue bills. (Think about how hard a job that was.) He was hired, then the guy whoís place he took got fired. He had to take two 10% pay cuts to keep his job. My grandfather had a 5th grade education. My parents lived through it, told me plenty. Men were riding the rails (hobos) and would go to the back door begging for a sandwich to eat.

pitchattitude
04-17-2020, 07:56 PM
Remember the stock market increases are a leading economic indicator. Unemployment is lagging. What that means is the stock market looks ahead 6 to 12 months, anticipating what is going to happen. After business starts picking up, then hiring takes place. If you are waiting for an all clear signal before getting in the stock market, you are too late. This is not me saying this, it is my investment management firm (and many others) who say this; loud and clear.

The unemployment rate in the Great Depression did hit 24.9%. And underemployment was probably another 50%. My grandfather lost his job as a teller at the bank when it failed. Went to work at the gas company doing door to door collections of overdue bills. (Think about how hard a job that was.) He was hired, then the guy whoís place he took got fired. He had to take two 10% pay cuts to keep his job. My grandfather had a 5th grade education. My parents lived through it, told me plenty. Men were riding the rails (hobos) and would go to the back door begging for a sandwich to eat.
The stock market is down and up and down and up but significantly down. Itís all over the place. How is that an indicator of six to twelve months from now??

The unemployment rate may ďonlyĒ be 15% right now, but that is still much higher than after 9/11 and the 2008 recession.

The 15% unemployment is in a lot of areas that are small businesses. If those small business owners lose everything then those businesses wonít be here to reemploy them.

There are a lot of factors. I donít want to be right. I want to be so wrong. But there is just so much working against a speedy recovery.

And again, no indication that things have bottomed out. Air travel may have, but it literally canít get much lower. The curve may be ďflatteringĒ but the level of testing to really determine where we are and a lot of other things are a long way from being where they need to be to recover. And the inertia of declining economy is a pretty hard thing to overcome.

Shiner
04-17-2020, 11:15 PM
https://www.statnews.com/2020/04/16/early-peek-at-data-on-gilead-coronavirus-drug-suggests-patients-are-responding-to-treatment/



A big reason for the rally today was positive news on this anti viral treatment. Itís too early to tell, but if it works we could see a recovery much sooner than expected.


Sent from my iPhone using Tapatalk

ninerdriver
04-21-2020, 04:31 AM
The silver lining could be that unlike the Great Depression or 2008, this was not an obvious failure of our system. This has not resulted from a bank run or negligent credit rating agencies. It was an intentional shutdown for public health concerns, the likes of which has never been seen before. We are in uncharted territory and nobody truly knows what is going to happen.
How is this not a failure of our system? We've proven that we don't have the supporting infrastructure to sustain such a robust economy when things go badly.

Otterbox
04-21-2020, 04:52 AM
How is this not a failure of our system? We've proven that we don't have the supporting infrastructure to sustain such a robust economy when things go badly.

You canít sustain an economy when government makes it illegal to do business.

chrisreedrules
04-21-2020, 05:20 AM
AAís conundrum is that if they shrink to meet demand and therefore have reduced revenue, they wonít be able to service their debt. Unless there is a snap back to at least 75-80% in Q4 2020 I would imagine a Chapter 11 filing is a foregone conclusion.

Just so you all understand their financial situation, AA profited $1.7B in 2019. Just the terms of these new grants and bailouts would have them owing the federal government about $650M for the next 10 years. So half of the profit they made in one of their most profitable years ever... Do you think 2020 or 2021 is even going to be half as profitable as 2019? They wonít be able to pay their debt payments.

Five-year credit default swaps protecting against non-payment of American Airlines Group Inc.ís debt have soared to 2,883 basis points. For comparison Lehman Brothers Holdings Inc.ís swaps peaked at 707 basis points on the eve of its 2008 collapse. Think about that. Theyíre likely already preparing for Chapter 11 in Q3/Q4...

ninerdriver
04-21-2020, 06:17 AM
You canít sustain an economy when government makes it illegal to do business.
Government made it illegal to do business because we don't have the supporting infrastructure to sustain a robust economy when things go badly.

pitchattitude
04-21-2020, 07:21 AM
Government made it illegal to do business because we don't have the supporting infrastructure to sustain a robust economy when things go badly.
People talk with their wallets. The majority wants things to be less expensive. Retailers responded by looking for a source of products that was cheaper so they went with off shore productions.

Much like other things, when the majority has ruled the rest have few choices. It means the locally sourced products become even more expensive because there are fewer outlets and fewer units sold to spread the fixed costs. Eventually it just isnít practical anymore.

There are government interventions that can affect these positively or negatively through taxes and tariffs and it depends which school of thought you are as to your opinions on which is which.

Cyio
04-21-2020, 07:36 AM
AAís conundrum is that if they shrink to meet demand and therefore have reduced revenue, they wonít be able to service their debt. Unless there is a snap back to at least 75-80% in Q4 2020 I would imagine a Chapter 11 filing is a foregone conclusion.

Just so you all understand their financial situation, AA profited $1.7B in 2019. Just the terms of these new grants and bailouts would have them owing the federal government about $650M for the next 10 years. So half of the profit they made in one of their most profitable years ever... Do you think 2020 or 2021 is even going to be half as profitable as 2019? They wonít be able to pay their debt payments.

Five-year credit default swaps protecting against non-payment of American Airlines Group Inc.ís debt have soared to 2,883 basis points. For comparison Lehman Brothers Holdings Inc.ís swaps peaked at 707 basis points on the eve of its 2008 collapse. Think about that. Theyíre likely already preparing for Chapter 11 in Q3/Q4...
Exactly, but good thing we have ThKooj here to tell us it will all be OK! AA is screwed and unless there is some super secret financial loophole, they will have to file Chapter 11. I just cant see them being able to not do that.

Cujo665
04-21-2020, 07:39 AM
AA’s conundrum is that if they shrink to meet demand and therefore have reduced revenue, they won’t be able to service their debt. Unless there is a snap back to at least 75-80% in Q4 2020 I would imagine a Chapter 11 filing is a foregone conclusion.

Just so you all understand their financial situation, AA profited $1.7B in 2019. Just the terms of these new grants and bailouts would have them owing the federal government about $650M for the next 10 years. So half of the profit they made in one of their most profitable years ever... Do you think 2020 or 2021 is even going to be half as profitable as 2019? They won’t be able to pay their debt payments.

Five-year credit default swaps protecting against non-payment of American Airlines Group Inc.’s debt have soared to 2,883 basis points. For comparison Lehman Brothers Holdings Inc.’s swaps peaked at 707 basis points on the eve of its 2008 collapse. Think about that. They’re likely already preparing for Chapter 11 in Q3/Q4...

They've already retained the same firm as last time. Guess what will likely happen. October a bunch of furloughs, November another BK. In between will be lots of "good faith" concessionary negotiations to keep everybody thinking there isn't going to be a BK.... pretty much the same play book as last time, with the addition of furloughs to stem the bleeding.

ClappedOut145
04-21-2020, 07:50 AM
They've already retained the same firm as last time. Guess what will likely happen. October a bunch of furloughs, November another BK. In between will be lots of "good faith" concessionary negotiations to keep everybody thinking there isn't going to be a BK.... pretty much the same play book as last time, with the addition of furloughs to stem the bleeding.

By the same firm do you mean F&H Solutions? If so, the younger pilots should do some asking around about him.

Cujo665
04-21-2020, 08:23 AM
By the same firm do you mean F&H Solutions? If so, the younger pilots should do some asking around about him.

I was referring to the law firm that specializes in bankruptcy proceedings.

however, since you brought that toolbag up... the company has recently stopped negotiating directly with the union and is running everything through Jerry Glass of F&H solutions. Exactly as last time.

Varsity
04-21-2020, 08:40 AM
I was referring to the law firm that specializes in bankruptcy proceedings.

however, since you brought that toolbag up... the company has recently stopped negotiating directly with the union and is running everything through Jerry Glass of F&H solutions. Exactly as last time.

The company as in Envoy or AA?

Cicada
04-21-2020, 08:53 AM
By the same firm do you mean F&H Solutions? If so, the younger pilots should do some asking around about him.

The Legacy AA people really need to get familiar with F&H. Anyone with an A fund plan should hope APA is working on a freeze plan or plan to fight a termination. Parker would love to can that obligation. F&H are the go to pros. They have a plan right now.


By
Michael Kranish
August 8, 2019 at 6:00 a.m. EDT
President Trump remembers coming home in the mid-1960s to read reports on the cost of mops and paint as he prepared to work in the family real estate business. He was astonished to find his older brother, Fred Jr., reading aviation books in hopes of fulfilling his dream of being a TWA pilot.
“Come on, Freddy, what are you doing?” Trump has recalled saying to his brother. “You’re wasting your time.” Their father berated Fred Jr., saying he wanted to be nothing more than “a chauffeur in the sky,” a friend said, instead of running the Trump company.


They laid two bankruptcies on USAir. The first one the " light" serving. The second was a S$&t sandwich of pension termination.
Pretty sad when the Gov t goes along and dumps the pension on the US taxpayer, when many could have been frozen and re started.
Parker just wants it gone, and with a Repub. Admin, you are toast. Sorry, but that is reality.