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View Full Version : Immediate future grave thinks Fed


VictorAW
03-15-2020, 02:27 PM
Fed releases Sunday afternoon emergency Quantitative Easing. They must see a freezing up of money like 2008. Hoping to set a floor for the market. However DJ futures showing over 1000 point loss for Monday. Economy has been extremely fragile for the last couple years,getting pushed over edge now. could be a long road back to normalcy. The industry is in for shock & awe.


forgot to bid
03-15-2020, 02:31 PM
Fed releases Sunday afternoon emergency Quantitative Easing. They must see a freezing up of money like 2008. Hoping to set a floor for the market. However DJ futures showing over 1000 point loss for Monday. Economy has been extremely fragile for the last couple years,getting pushed over edge now. could be a long road back to normalcy. The industry is in for shock & awe.

It's sometimes okay to do nothing. Wish we would just do nothing and let the markets sort it all out.

But since they're doing this. I may cash out of my toilet paper futures and refinance.

Mesabah
03-15-2020, 02:37 PM
I've never seen, or even studied a government screwing over small business this badly. The government is dumping all the pain of this on the middle class, in order to support the protected class of assets.


iahflyr
03-15-2020, 02:57 PM
However DJ futures showing over 1000 point loss for Monday.

It hit the down limit circuit breaker. Odds are it goes much lower than that on Monday

Bozo the pilot
03-15-2020, 03:00 PM
It hit the down limit circuit breaker. Odds are it goes much lower than that on Monday
Yup- start thinking 18K in the next 2 or 3 weeks. Dont buy yet. Wait for it Billy Ray...

BMEP100
03-15-2020, 03:08 PM
Yup- start thinking 18K in the next 2 or 3 weeks. Dont buy yet. Wait for it Billy Ray...

There is actually a technical forecast based on science that says we are headed much lower on the S&P. Shiller P/E A Better Measurement of Market ValuationDate: Sun, 15 Mar 2020 18:06:52 -0500 (Updated every 10 minutes) Shiller P/E: 26 (+ 9.287%)Shiller P/E is 52.8% higher than the historical mean of 17
Implied future annual return: 0.2%
Historical low: 4.8
Historical high: 44.2
S&P 500: 2711.02
Regular P/E: 20.4 (historical mean: 16.1)Prof. Robert Shiller of Yale University invented the Schiller P/E to measure the market's valuation. The Schiller P/E is a more reasonable market valuation indicator than the P/E ratio because it eliminates fluctuation of the ratio caused by the variation of profit margins during business cycles. This is similar to market valuation based on the ratio of total market cap over GDP (safari-reader://www.gurufocus.com/stock-market-valuations.php), where the variation of profit margins does not play a role either.

GuruFocus calculates the Shiller P/E ratio of individual stocks and different sectors. Here you can see the Sector Shiller PE (safari-reader://www.gurufocus.com/sector_shiller_pe.php), it shows you which sectors are the cheapest. Here you can see Shiller P/E of individual stocks (safari-reader://www.gurufocus.com/term/ShillerPE/WMT/Shiller%2BP%252FE%2BRatio/Wal-Mart%2BStores%2BInc).

Bozo the pilot
03-15-2020, 03:11 PM
There is actually a technical forecast based on science that says we are headed much lower on the S&P.Shiller P/E A Better Measurement of Market ValuationDate: Sun, 15 Mar 2020 18:06:52 -0500 (Updated every 10 minutes) Shiller P/E: 26 (+ 9.287%)Shiller P/E is 52.8% higher than the historical mean of 17
Implied future annual return: 0.2%
Historical low: 4.8
Historical high: 44.2
S&P 500: 2711.02
Regular P/E: 20.4 (historical mean: 16.1)Prof. Robert Shiller of Yale University invented the Schiller P/E to measure the market's valuation. The Schiller P/E is a more reasonable market valuation indicator than the P/E ratio because it eliminates fluctuation of the ratio caused by the variation of profit margins during business cycles. This is similar to market valuation based on the ratio of total market cap over GDP (safari-reader://www.gurufocus.com/stock-market-valuations.php), where the variation of profit margins does not play a role either.

GuruFocus calculates the Shiller P/E ratio of individual stocks and different sectors. Here you can see the Sector Shiller PE (safari-reader://www.gurufocus.com/sector_shiller_pe.php), it shows you which sectors are the cheapest. Here you can see Shiller P/E of individual stocks (safari-reader://www.gurufocus.com/term/ShillerPE/WMT/Shiller%2BP%252FE%2BRatio/Wal-Mart%2BStores%2BInc).
All you had to say was lower... Jeesh. ;)

Grumpyaviator
03-15-2020, 03:34 PM
Yup- start thinking 18K in the next 2 or 3 weeks. Dont buy yet. Wait for it Billy Ray...

what types of stocks will be good buys?

Bozo the pilot
03-15-2020, 03:47 PM
what types of stocks will be good buys?
TSLA
MA
SHOP
VEEV
AAPL
JPM
AMZN
Let me know if you need the whole ticker boss. :D

Name User
03-15-2020, 03:47 PM
what types of stocks will be good buys?
Electric utilities.

Let them get thrown out with the bath water. Then start buying. I bought solid electric co stocks in 2009 IIRC making 10% dividend. Electric demand dropped like 2% during that time period.

O is another good one but a little more volatile. Wait for it to fall. This is gonna get out of control fast...you'll know when everyone capitulates...the US gov screwed this up so badly...holy ____.

2StgTurbine
03-15-2020, 03:50 PM
what types of stocks will be good buys?

Any company that is likely to be around in the next 10 years. Microsoft, Intel, AMD,Amazon, Apple, companies in healthcare, etc. Those stocks are generally expensive and don't see massive gains. When there is a panic all stock prices drop. Large companies aren't going to disappear due to this so now is the time to get a good deal because when this hysteria ends these stock prices will jump back up.

Bozo the pilot
03-15-2020, 03:51 PM
Any company that is likely to be around in the next 10 years. Microsoft, Intel, AMD,Amazon, Apple, companies in healthcare, etc. Those stocks are generally expensive and don't see massive gains. When there is a panic all stock prices drop. Large companies aren't going to disappear due to this so now is the time to get a good deal because when this hysteria ends these stock prices will jump back up.
Yea- my list

Name User
03-15-2020, 03:51 PM
Article from 2007. Read it and transpose last month's date and numbers.


Dow, S&P break records
Blue-chip averages hit intraday and closing highs after minutes from last central bank meeting add to bets that the Fed can lower rates again this year.

NEW YORK (CNNMoney.com) -- Stocks rallied Tuesday, sending the Dow and S&P 500 to all-time highs as investors breathed a sigh of relief that the minutes from the last Fed meeting supported hopes for another interest rate cut by the end of the year.

The Dow Jones industrial average (Charts) jumped more than 120 points, ending at an all-time high of 14,164.53. The blue-chip barometer had hit an intraday high of 14,166.40 shortly before the close.

The broader S&P 500 (Charts) index hit a record intraday high of 1,565.26 right before the close, and ended the session just short of that at 1,565.15.

The tech-heavy Nasdaq composite (Charts) added 0.6 percent, ending at a fresh 6-1/2 year high.

Fed explains the big rate cut
Stocks drifted higher through the morning, flattened out in the early afternoon and then began to rise as investors digested the minutes from the Sept. 18 Fed meeting, released at around 2:00 p.m. ET.

"The market had a desire to keep going up and there was nothing in the minutes to prevent it," said Paul Mendelsohn, president and chief investment officer at Windham Financial Services.

Mendelsohn said that investors were a little cautious leading into the minutes but once they saw that there was nothing particularly surprising in the minutes, they redoubled their efforts to move stocks higher.

The Dow and S&P 500 carving out fresh all-time highs will give the stock market more ammunition in the short term, he said, provided that the earnings don't derail the momentum.

More
https://money.cnn.com/2007/10/09/markets/markets_0500/

jkjfm1
03-15-2020, 03:53 PM
Fed releases Sunday afternoon emergency Quantitative Easing. They must see a freezing up of money like 2008. Hoping to set a floor for the market. However DJ futures showing over 1000 point loss for Monday. Economy has been extremely fragile for the last couple years,getting pushed over edge now. could be a long road back to normalcy. The industry is in for shock & awe.
Fragile the last couple years? It’s been booming. Better to be in the position we’re at than if we were already in recession like so many other countries around the world.

Bozo the pilot
03-15-2020, 03:54 PM
Fragile the last couple years? Its been booming. Better to be in the position were at than if we were already in recession like so many other countries around the world.
Yes- 08 was worse in terms of liquidity. Also, no toxic assets.
Not an easy road back but think 18 months instead of 3 years.

Hank Kingsley
03-15-2020, 03:54 PM
Yea- my list
Don't take this the wrong way, Bozo the pilot investment advice? Strip bars, yeah!

Bozo the pilot
03-15-2020, 03:55 PM
Don't take this the wrong way, Bozo the pilot investment advice? Strip bars, yeah!
I know- Thus the false bravado. Duh..:)

D B Cooper
03-15-2020, 04:29 PM
Yup- start thinking 18K in the next 2 or 3 weeks. Dont buy yet. Wait for it Billy Ray...
Are we going all in on orange juice futures?

AirbusPTC
03-15-2020, 04:34 PM
Are we going all in on orange juice futures?

Looking good Billy Ray, feeling good Lewis!

TANSTAAFL
03-15-2020, 04:39 PM
what types of stocks will be good buys?

S&P 500 Index Fund and Fugetaboutit

forgot to bid
03-15-2020, 04:40 PM
S&P 500 Index Fund and Fugetaboutit

Im thinking Costco stock

WhiskeyDelta
03-15-2020, 05:04 PM
Looking good Billy Ray, feeling good Lewis!



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