Airline Pilot Forums

Airline Pilot Forums was designed to be a community where working airline pilots can share ideas and information about the aviation field. In the forum you will find information about major and regional airline carriers, career training, interview and job seeker help, finance, and living the airline pilot lifestyle.




SexyJeny
08-16-2007, 04:47 AM
We need to watch the market closely...!:confused:

Stock, S&P 500 is plunging ....what about the sensitive Airline stocks...?

It is something that we all need to watch.

Can someone... come forward..... on the field ? I am interesting in your Respectfully opinions.

Thanks

SexyJeny:)


NGINEWHOISWHAT
08-16-2007, 05:07 AM
Can someone... come forward..... on the field ? I am interesting in your Respectfully opinions.

Thanks

SexyJeny:)

Blame it on the sub-prime fiasco. I don't know ...

Tom

Eric Stratton
08-16-2007, 05:43 AM
what can really be done except get worked up a little.


Bucking Bar
08-16-2007, 05:48 AM
There are a couple of named storms. Erin hit Corpus without much effect, but the market may sense hurricane season causing fuel supply issues.

Also, Wal Mart's reported that US consumers are simply tapped out due to increased energy costs and taxes. Their report was interesting because they illustrated a link between payday and shopping activity and many customers said they do not have any cash to shop until payday - folks are living paycheck to paycheck and just not making it.

I see this effecting the discretionary travel market more than the network carriers. With oil above $70 a barrell there isn't such a thing as a "low cost" or "discount" carrier - it is all flippin high cost with AirTran costing $600+ to fly cross continent, just like Delta. Fuel levels the playing field to some extent resulting in network carriers having an advantage. It is interesting also to watch AirTran's effort to become more of a network carrier with NWA trying to keep them out of their back yard. The effort is getting expensive either way.

So there is more to this than Countrywide mortgage. Like you, I found it odd that Countrywide threatened bankruptcy and Continental's stock fell off more sharply than the mortgage lenders - but Continental had a heck of a run and folks may have decided to take profits.

We have two highly inflationary factors upsetting the market - Energy and Taxes. The housing and liquidity bubble acted as a spring but now that has run its' course and is rebounding. This could cause energy prices to decline and help stabilize the market. The tax situation has to get worse. Congress and the Bush administration have been profligate spenders. Nothing really works to fix this problem, if they lower interest rates inflation will increase, if they continue dumping cash from the central bank, devaluation will occur causing more inflation and more of a transfer to a Euro-centric economy.

SexyJeny
08-16-2007, 06:05 AM
There are a couple of named storms. Erin hit Corpus without much effect, but the market may sense hurricane season causing fuel supply issues.

Also, Wal Mart's reported that US consumers are simply tapped out due to increased energy costs and taxes. Their report was interesting because they illustrated a link between payday and shopping activity and many customers said they do not have any cash to shop until payday - folks are living paycheck to paycheck and just not making it.

I see this effecting the discretionary travel market more than the network carriers. With oil above $70 a barrell there isn't such a thing as a "low cost" or "discount" carrier - it is all flippin high cost with AirTran costing $600+ to fly cross continent, just like Delta. Fuel levels the playing field to some extent resulting in network carriers having an advantage. It is interesting also to watch AirTran's effort to become more of a network carrier with NWA trying to keep them out of their back yard. The effort is getting expensive either way.

So there is more to this than Countrywide mortgage. Like you, I found it odd that Countrywide threatened bankruptcy and Continental's stock fell off more sharply than the mortgage lenders - but Continental had a heck of a run and folks may have decided to take profits.

We have two highly inflationary factors upsetting the market - Energy and Taxes. The housing and liquidity bubble acted as a spring but now that has run its' course and is rebounding. This could cause energy prices to decline and help stabilize the market. The tax situation has to get worse. Congress and the Bush administration have been profligate spenders. Nothing really works to fix this problem, if they lower interest rates inflation will increase, if they continue dumping cash from the central bank, devaluation will occur causing more inflation and more of a transfer to a Euro-centric economy.


Thanks for your info....... I need to add though The Yen is the problem right now ...also call liquidity..
Traders said the yen was inversely tracking the fortunes of stock prices, which fell after mortgage lender American Home Mortgage Investment Corp. said it could not fund home loans and may have to liquidate assets. "The forex market ( Currency Exchange) is tracking the stock market step by step, Every time stocks turn lower, it's a sign for investors to buy yen."
I have some money invested on the Japanese Yen..and I am really happy this morning ..... but I have to tell you I am little worry about this market these days. The travel Market in my opinion, is extremely susceptible with NY stocks Exchange.

Just a thought.

Thanks

SexyJeny:rolleyes:

satchip
08-16-2007, 06:29 AM
Thanks for your info....... I need to add though The Yen is the problem right now ...also call liquidity..
Traders said the yen was inversely tracking the fortunes of stock prices, which fell after mortgage lender American Home Mortgage Investment Corp. said it could not fund home loans and may have to liquidate assets. "The forex market ( Currency Exchange) is tracking the stock market step by step, Every time stocks turn lower, it's a sign for investors to buy yen."
I have some money invested on the Japanese Yen..and I am really happy this morning ..... but I have to tell you I am little worry about this market these days. The travel Market in my opinion, is extremely susceptible with NY stocks Exchange.

Just a thought.

Thanks

SexyJeny:rolleyes:

Wow, and Avatar picture like that and brains too. I think I am in love...

ewrbasedpilot
08-16-2007, 08:02 AM
I've taken a massive beating in the market lately (last two weeks) and I've got nothing closely remote to the housing market...........a battery manufacturer, a purse manufacturer, etc. I think these jerks running these markets need to be looked into. If someone THINKS there's a tropical storm brewing off the coast of Africa, the oil markets soar...........for NO justifiable reason other than "well, there MIGHT be a storm". Unfortunately, the airlines are getting killed by it, and with this inept administration "holding down the oil fort" for their friends, it's been devastating to everyone BUT them. Halliburton is moving its headquarters to the middle east and nary a word is said. Bush is complaining that the democrats are ruining everything and raising taxes, but he's yet to say how we're paying for this botched up war that he continues to throw our hard earned money into (with no end in sight). CAL took a massive beating yesterday for no reason. There was NO news other than a tropical depression that MIGHT cancel a few flights in IAH. Wow, good reason to lose 20% in one day, huh? Something is wrong with the markets, but there seems to be no urgent hurry for anyone to find out what the problem is. The little guys are getting killed, meanwhile all the experts continue putting their sights on killing more of us off. Pathetic, isn't it? I'm so sick of how this country is being run. 90% of our products are made in CHINA. No wonder we're turning into one of the largest debtor nations in the world. Sorry for the political rant, but I'm P*SSED............ And the markets CONTINUE their beautiful plunge today.............:(

rickair7777
08-16-2007, 08:52 AM
I'm in mostly offshore stuff...it seems to be weathering the storm somewhat.

Bucking Bar
08-16-2007, 09:22 AM
This really is not a storm unless you are a hedge fund which was playing in the mortgage market.

Various analysts are already calling the airlines over sold with a lot of upside potential over the next six months - particularly CAL.

I wish I had my check back from my sale of all my airline holdings last week. I would jump back in at these prices.

Rick, you are smart. I'm thinking about moving more and more assets to something not in USD.

MEMFO4Ever
08-16-2007, 09:34 AM
Buy, buy, buy

HSLD
08-16-2007, 09:48 AM
Buy, buy, buy

Agreed, wait a week until the dust settles - then everything is on sale.

Aviatormar
08-16-2007, 10:57 AM
Ok, well this is going to sound dumb, but this is one of the best threads I have ever read on APC. I'm 22 and am dying to learn how the stock markets work and the forces behind them. Please keep this stuff coming.

Bucking Bar
08-16-2007, 12:06 PM
Aviator Mar -

Stock market is just like buying & selling anything else, with a much more transparent and easy process. Stocks ride up and down based on the motivation of buyers and sellers and the inherent value of a little bit of whatever Company is being traded.

Big swings like we have had in the last few days are the result of everyone reacting out of fear. Inversely - big run ups in price are motivated by greed - the result of everyone wanting a part of the action. When you see either extreme it is time to be very pragmatic and try to adjust your view to the end of the runway - makes for a better landing.

Short selling is borrowing a stock. Lets say I can't stand SKYW so I arrange to borrow some shares at $25 for a period of time. Those get sold off and I hope the stock goes down so when I have to replace the shares it only costs me $20 each. The $5 spread is my profit.

The airlines are great for day traders who can't get enough of the casino action. You can bet with and bet against the house by buying, or selling short.

For any serious investing - average your money month to month into a regular old index fund and just watch the result. I lost more than $10,000 in the most recent market swing. If I had invested a week ago I would be upset, but with 25 years of investing it is more of a curiousity. After all, some accounts I put $7,000 in 20 years ago are now over $35,000.

I am starting to shift more money offshore, but the lack of an effective legal system and political instability make some foreign investment REAL risky. For example you can buy a beachfront lot in the Philippines for $4,500. The down side is squatters might take it, or the Muslims might kill you for it. But if the Country ever pulls itself together you have a little bit of land headed towards stratospheric prices.

SexyJeny
08-16-2007, 12:07 PM
There are a couple of named storms. Erin hit Corpus without much effect, but the market may sense hurricane season causing fuel supply issues.

Also, Wal Mart's reported that US consumers are simply tapped out due to increased energy costs and taxes. Their report was interesting because they illustrated a link between payday and shopping activity and many customers said they do not have any cash to shop until payday - folks are living paycheck to paycheck and just not making it.

I see this effecting the discretionary travel market more than the network carriers. With oil above $70 a barrell there isn't such a thing as a "low cost" or "discount" carrier - it is all flippin high cost with AirTran costing $600+ to fly cross continent, just like Delta. Fuel levels the playing field to some extent resulting in network carriers having an advantage. It is interesting also to watch AirTran's effort to become more of a network carrier with NWA trying to keep them out of their back yard. The effort is getting expensive either way.

So there is more to this than Countrywide mortgage. Like you, I found it odd that Countrywide threatened bankruptcy and Continental's stock fell off more sharply than the mortgage lenders - but Continental had a heck of a run and folks may have decided to take profits.

We have two highly inflationary factors upsetting the market - Energy and Taxes. The housing and liquidity bubble acted as a spring but now that has run its' course and is rebounding. This could cause energy prices to decline and help stabilize the market. The tax situation has to get worse. Congress and the Bush administration have been profligate spenders. Nothing really works to fix this problem, if they lower interest rates inflation will increase, if they continue dumping cash from the central bank, devaluation will occur causing more inflation and more of a transfer to a Euro-centric economy.




I am agree with you Bucking Bar ,....and about this Administration....hopefully this is going to be a "Costly " Lesson for all of us. for the next future. ;)

"SatChip" thank you for the Compliment ..!:rolleyes:

SexyJeny:)

OscartheGrouch
08-16-2007, 01:16 PM
I am agree with you Bucking Bar ,....and about this Administration....hopefully this is going to be a "Costly " Lesson for all of us. for the next future. ;)

"SatChip" thank you for the Compliment ..!:rolleyes:

SexyJeny:)

Okay, I will bite. What is this "costly" lesson we must all learn? For the next future that is.

Please chime in Mike734

edznaz
08-16-2007, 02:02 PM
Market is simple: be nice. 1. Sell when folks want to buy 2. Buy when folks want to sell. 3. Always try to end up with more than you had.

Led Zep
08-16-2007, 03:04 PM
Okay, I will bite. What is this "costly" lesson we must all learn? For the next future that is.

Please chime in Mike734

The lesson: don't spend (or borrow) money you do not or will not have.

Led Zep
08-16-2007, 03:07 PM
Ok, well this is going to sound dumb, but this is one of the best threads I have ever read on APC. I'm 22 and am dying to learn how the stock markets work and the forces behind them. Please keep this stuff coming.

Invest with a long-term attitude. In other words, don't check your 401k balance every day and panic if it is lower than the day before. Invest, keep investing and plan on looking at it 30 years down the road when you're ready to retire.

The market and your investments are going to have gains and losses. Over the long-term you will come out ahead.

JMT21
08-16-2007, 03:18 PM
Market is simple: be nice. 1. Sell when folks want to buy 2. Buy when folks want to sell. 3. Always try to end up with more than you had.

That's pretty much as scientific as it gets. When Business Week (and the like) is running cover stories about the housing meltdown as they did several weeks ago, its time to buy. I'm going with IAI, a broker-dealer index.

JMT21
08-16-2007, 03:25 PM
The lesson: don't spend (or borrow) money you do not or will not have.

Exactly. It's not a partisan issue, neither party seems capable of spending less.

Polarfr8dog
08-16-2007, 03:30 PM
If you're not ready to retire you shouldn't worry too much about the market. I'm not an analyst but I see these as mere corrections. If you're a day trader -- yes. Hedge funds are in trouble and some of the mortgage companies that overloaded on subprime (bad credit) loans are in trouble as well.

I am not worried about the market 'cause I'm not ready to retire and don't care about age 65. I want to retire when there's enough cash in the bank. My timeline is 60 at the latest. 401K is in aggressive stocks and mutual funds are at dollar cost averaging (putting in the same amount of money per month regardless of price). For those of you in your twenties, this is highly suggested. Sure, you may have student loans, credit card debt due to the wonderful salary at the commuters but make yourself one of your bills and put your name in front of everyone else. It looks like it's impossible early on but when that little nest egg starts acumulating that compounding interest you'll be amazed. Don't touch it and let it grow. I only share with you some of the things I am doing to give you ideas. Trust me, they work. At the ripe old age of 18 it was burned into my mind to do this. Twenty years later it's starting to show some nice numbers.

Good Luck!

SharkyBN584
08-16-2007, 04:00 PM
Dollar-Cost Averaging my friends. This dip could end up making some people a lot of money. If you're not already in index funds...now's a good time to start...

P.S. - This seems more like a market correction to the explosion from just a few weeks ago. It's happened before, it'll happen again.

7576United
08-16-2007, 05:25 PM
FWIW, I do a little day trading on the side, and happened to have my eye on CAL yesterday when it started selling off a little after 2pm.

Things started out bad in the morning for the entire airline industry because of the overall direction of the market, and because of rising oil prices with the hurricane fears. But in the afternoon, what it looked like to me was, someone with a lot of shares (we're talking millions) appeared to be liquidating their position. More than likely, it wasn't by choice. It was possibly a collapsing hedge fund who was having their position liquidated for them. The reason I say this is, whomever was doing the selling had no regard for the price. They were dumping thousand of shares at a time for whatever price was being asked. Some shorts may have seen this and piled on, making things even worse. And that's also why CAL bounced so sharply back today, the smart money new it was an anomaly.

shaggieshapiro
08-16-2007, 05:33 PM
Buy, buy, buy
exactly,

the market is nothing more than glamourized gambling. 2 things you look for when you want to buy a stock is the PE ratio and the 52 week high. The market is in a selloff right now, because most of the stocks out there are all at their highs. It makes perfect business sense to sell, sell, sell. That is how you make money in the market.

So, if you are a venture capitalist you will use this downturn in the market to buy,buy,buy.

As far as all this talk about volitility and liquidity that is just Squawk on the street talk. Will it affect the airlines? Probably not.

beechbum
08-16-2007, 05:41 PM
We have been waiting for this for a while now. Thankfully it finally happened. We were in the second longest bull market in the history of markets without a 10% correction. On average, there is a 10% correction about every year or two. When the dow hit 14,000, along with the sub-prime mortgate mess, a sell-off began. Investors started to take some profit from the last 4-5 years. Today, the market hit the support level and immediately picked up about 250 points (market was down more that 250 points for the day, and closed down only 15). That is a very bullish signal. Is there more to come? Who knows, but the market is priced very well (even at 14000), and earnings continue to support the price level. The market is having a blue light special now...stocks are on sale!

Bucking Bar
08-16-2007, 05:43 PM
the smart money new it was an anomaly.....apparently they just couldn't spell it.:rolleyes:

Just pulling your chain. :)

7576United
08-16-2007, 06:22 PM
....apparently they just couldn't spell it.:rolleyes:

Just pulling your chain. :)


Hey, I didn't say I was the smart money!

Good catch!

Ellen
08-16-2007, 08:15 PM
The simple reason why the market is going down is that there is no DEMAND. If there is no DEMAND for something (stock in any company) then the prices will fall to levels where people, investors, funds, etc., think it is a bargain.

Right now the market is skittery. Much of the gains made over the past 7 months have been wiped out to initial purchase levels. Technically the market looks for an even deeper correction, especially in the tech sector. The retrace could quite possibly be another year 2000 disaster. If unsure what to do, I would liquidate and remain CASH at this point (or wait for small bounce then bail). Stay in CASH until the market stabilizes (read into it several months).

As far as the airline sector, to me it still looks lower. If you are an options player I would probably short CALLS (short term) or go long PUTS for longer term gains, especially with UAUA, LCC, CAL. Some of the regionals look dead, MESA especially. I wouldn't be surprised if MESA falls to a price under $1.00 which would force a delisting from NASDAQ.

For sectors to buy I would scout around in the Natural Gas Market, Alternative Energy sectors, and quite possibly GOLD, BUT only IF the sectors begins an up swing.

Pilotpip
08-16-2007, 08:44 PM
Ok, well this is going to sound dumb, but this is one of the best threads I have ever read on APC. I'm 22 and am dying to learn how the stock markets work and the forces behind them. Please keep this stuff coming.

Much of it is pure speculation, nothing more. Ultimately, companies are going to try and put out as much info as they can to boost their stock. It's not a really good bearing on how a company is really doing as numbers can be heavily manipulated and depending on the board's agenda, can greatly mask a long-term problem.

You want to see screwed up, take a look at petroleum futures. Somebody sneezes wrong and prices skyrocket. The Katrina aftermath was nothing more than the excuse they were looking for to make more money. Gas prices have gone up, and so have big oil's profits. Coincidence?

I really don't know the ins and outs of it all, however it's cyclical, like aviation. It also relies heavily on the economy. I have a hard time believing that with the prices of commodities increasing that it hasn't had an effect on the average American's spending and I think the smoke and mirrors are finally starting to clear out. People who bought homes on Adjustable Rate Mortgages, new cars, and all the neat stuff that goes with our consumer culture are having it catch up to them. All of a sudden your mortgage goes up a few hundred bucks, it now costs $70 to fill the tank of your SUV when it only cost $35 a couple years ago and you have a long commute to work from your home in the suburbs. Bubble is bursting. Foreclosures are up, and sub-prime lenders are taking it on the chin.

Ellen
08-16-2007, 08:58 PM
1) USA is leveraged to the hilt. 2) Foreign investors are nervous that the USA (and USA companies et el) cannot repay so they shut off investment funds into the country. 3) Massive amounts of money spent on a war that they cannot win, 4) a president making all sorts of incredulous foreign policy blunders, 5) lost jobs overseas (China) as well as over the border (Mexico) due to NAFTA agreement.

I would not expect a lot out of the market anytime soon. In fact, I would bet on a slight recovery (signal get out of investments) before another MAJOR move downwards through the end of September (at minimum). Not quite sure I would bet on the October rally either. (I guess only time will tell)

shaggieshapiro
08-17-2007, 03:02 AM
All it takes is for China to pull out of the U.S. market then we're screwed

SexyJeny
08-17-2007, 04:27 AM
FEDS CUT 1/2 POINT INTEREST RATE...!!!!!!!!!!!:)

Now let see what will happen..



BUY BUY BUY

SexyJeny:)

tomgoodman
08-17-2007, 05:13 AM
FEDS CUT 1/2 POINT INTEREST RATE...!!!!!!!!!!!:)

Now let see what will happen..


I hope this doesn't just enable more of the foolish borrowing that caused the liquidity crunch in the first place! :rolleyes:

Pilotpip
08-17-2007, 06:09 PM
FEDS CUT 1/2 POINT INTEREST RATE...!!!!!!!!!!!:)

Now let see what will happen..



BUY BUY BUY

SexyJeny:)

Ahhhh, if this doesn't prove who owns the government, I don't know what does. Nothing better than a nicely timed "gift" to stop the bleeding. I think Mr. Goodman put it best. Is this going to allow cooler heads to prevail or is it just allowing for the status quo?

beechbum
08-17-2007, 08:40 PM
[QUOTE=Ellen;216474]The simple reason why the market is going down is that there is no DEMAND. If there is no DEMAND for something (stock in any company) then the prices will fall to levels where people, investors, funds, etc., think it is a bargain.

Right now the market is skittery. Much of the gains made over the past 7 months have been wiped out to initial purchase levels. Technically the market looks for an even deeper correction, especially in the tech sector. The retrace could quite possibly be another year 2000 disaster. If unsure what to do, I would liquidate and remain CASH at this point (or wait for small bounce then bail). Stay in CASH until the market stabilizes (read into it several months).[QUOTE]

What in the world are you talking about and where do you get your info??? You said technically the market will go lower. We have been looking for a 10% correction for four years now. We finally got it. The market corrected to 10% off its high, hit the resistance level, and immediately bounced back, BIG TIME! You mentioned technology overpriced...it is at its historical average. I think you are reading a publication from 2001. You would be stupid to get out of the market and sit on cash. Even if the market does go lower, when would you get back in? After the market skyrockets? You are preaching buy high and sell low. That is the complete wrong thing to do. If you want to make money in this market, buy long term and buy quality. Can't think of any airline stocks that would fit into that category, but to each his own.

beechbum
08-17-2007, 08:52 PM
FEDS CUT 1/2 POINT INTEREST RATE...!!!!!!!!!!!:)

Now let see what will happen..



BUY BUY BUY

SexyJeny:)

That is true, but the intereste rate that was lowered was the fed overnight rate, which banks borrow from the fed. That is an indication that a bank is in trouble when thay have to borrow from the Fed. The Fed rate, the rate which banks charge each other remained the same, 5.25%. When you hear about the fed raising or lowering rates, they are talking about the fed rate, which remained unchanged. This rate change will not have a big impact on the market. This change is indicating that there may be a future fed rate decrease. Some are thinking by the end of the year, and some are thinking that it will hold steady, but a rate increase is not expected for now. We will just wait and see the numbers to see what inflation is doing.

I agree with you though, BUY BUY BUY (good stocks though)

Ellen
08-20-2007, 11:20 AM
[QUOTE=Ellen;216474]
You would be stupid to get out of the market and sit on cash. Even if the market does go lower, when would you get back in? After the market skyrockets? You are preaching buy high and sell low. That is the complete wrong thing to do. If you want to make money in this market, buy long term and buy quality. Can't think of any airline stocks that would fit into that category, but to each his own.

I am NOT preaching Buy High and Sell Low. (Unless it's Buying or Selling PUTS-in that case you are correct)

(If you want to make money in the market buy Long Term and Buy Quality) Why not buy OR sell short term Volatility?

beechbum
08-22-2007, 09:39 AM
[QUOTE=beechbum;217014]

I am NOT preaching Buy High and Sell Low. (Unless it's Buying or Selling PUTS-in that case you are correct)

(If you want to make money in the market buy Long Term and Buy Quality) Why not buy OR sell short term Volatility?

I agree with your first statement, my point came across wrong that you were preaching that. What I meant was that if following that advice you mentioned earlier, buying high and selling low would be the outcome...I agree with your options statement.

As for short term trading...the odds are in the house's favor because short term trends can not be predicted...hindsight 20/20. Sure, occasionaly you may hit a homerun, but when it is all said and done, you will be in the red. Trading on short term trends are very similar to playing the inside in roulette.

RightSeatDude
08-22-2007, 04:02 PM
What we really need to watch for is people posing as airline professionals who really aren't. Know what I mean, Jeny?????
We need to watch the market closely...!:confused:

Stock, S&P 500 is plunging ....what about the sensitive Airline stocks...?

It is something that we all need to watch.

Can someone... come forward..... on the field ? I am interesting in your Respectfully opinions.

Thanks

SexyJeny:)