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FlyByCable
09-26-2007, 10:56 AM
Analyst Jamie Baker of JP Morgan suggests that contract talks at American Airlines aren't likely to produce a steep increase in employee wages, and could even result in a pay cut. Here's what he said in a report:We ascribe a 50% probability to a wage increase no larger than 10%, 30% probability to wage-neutral contracts, and 20% probability to lower wages. Yes, we just said 'lower wages'. Management and pilot rhetoric likely to deteriorate next year, but pilots know they're walking a tightrope. Any involvement of an NMB-appointed mediator down the road would likely focus on the fact that AMR wage rates are meaningfully higher than market to begin with. Sure, pilots may ask for hefty increases, but the facts remain: AMR wage rates are already uncompetitive, and negotiations are taking place against a backdrop of economic uncertainty. Not too shabby of a position for management, or stakeholders, to be in, in our view.


ewrbasedpilot
09-26-2007, 11:44 AM
As long as we continue to have an "oil friendly" administration who cares less about the workers, and more about making their "black gold" friends richer, it is you and I who will continue to pay for the majority of the fuel increases. Kind of interesting how oil continues to go higher and higher and the only people getting blamed for it is US!!! Sad, isn't it? Going to be really interesting to see how much profit the oil companies come out with especially when oil is $20 a bbl higher than last quarter! :rolleyes:

aa73
09-26-2007, 12:18 PM
Jamie Baker... probably paid off by AMR press to spout such rosy outlooks.


7576FO
09-26-2007, 12:28 PM
Analyst Jamie Baker of JP Morgan suggests that contract talks at American Airlines aren't likely to produce a steep increase in employee wages, and could even result in a pay cut. Here's what he said in a report:We ascribe a 50% probability to a wage increase no larger than 10%, 30% probability to wage-neutral contracts, and 20% probability to lower wages. Yes, we just said 'lower wages'. Management and pilot rhetoric likely to deteriorate next year, but pilots know they're walking a tightrope. Any involvement of an NMB-appointed mediator down the road would likely focus on the fact that AMR wage rates are meaningfully higher than market to begin with. Sure, pilots may ask for hefty increases, but the facts remain: AMR wage rates are already uncompetitive, and negotiations are taking place against a backdrop of economic uncertainty. Not too shabby of a position for management, or stakeholders, to be in, in our view.


Dear Jamie Baker of JP Morgan you probably might want to rethink those percentages. Because 95,000 American employees dispense 10% of their wages each month to an Investment firm for retirement called um uh, uh i think it's oh, say, JP Morgan!
I bet your Supervisor Kicks 100% of your ass tomorrow.

Good news to all/any comm mulit instr rated pilots.
If my Union APA cannot arrange a pay raise and instead I take another pay cut, then there will be a job opening at American Airlines (Mine)

This is all management 101. And this is another analyst pulling numbers out of his arse.

Futureman
09-26-2007, 02:17 PM
As long as we continue to have an "oil friendly" administration who cares less about the workers, and more about making their "black gold" friends richer, it is you and I who will continue to pay for the majority of the fuel increases. Kind of interesting how oil continues to go higher and higher and the only people getting blamed for it is US!!! Sad, isn't it? Going to be really interesting to see how much profit the oil companies come out with especially when oil is $20 a bbl higher than last quarter! :rolleyes:
It's called supply and demand. Have you been reading the Daily Worker?

Futureman
09-26-2007, 05:30 PM
As long as we continue to have an "oil friendly" administration who cares less about the workers, and more about making their "black gold" friends richer, it is you and I who will continue to pay for the majority of the fuel increases. Kind of interesting how oil continues to go higher and higher and the only people getting blamed for it is US!!! Sad, isn't it? Going to be really interesting to see how much profit the oil companies come out with especially when oil is $20 a bbl higher than last quarter! :rolleyes:
Here is a proposal from your Dem buds:

"WASHINGTON -- Dealing with global warming will be painful, says one of the most powerful Democrats in Congress. To back up his claim he is proposing a recipe many people won't like _ a 50-cent gasoline tax, a carbon tax and scaling back tax breaks for some home owners. _A 50-cent-a-gallon tax on gasoline and jet fuel, phased in over five years, on top of existing taxes."

That should help the airline industry. This is being sponsored by Rep. Dingell (Chairman of the House Energy and Commerce Committee). Have fun watching your Dems wreck the economy because they think the government can control the weather.

Eric Stratton
09-27-2007, 04:52 AM
Here is a proposal from your Dem buds:

"WASHINGTON -- Dealing with global warming will be painful, says one of the most powerful Democrats in Congress. To back up his claim he is proposing a recipe many people won't like _ a 50-cent gasoline tax, a carbon tax and scaling back tax breaks for some home owners. _A 50-cent-a-gallon tax on gasoline and jet fuel, phased in over five years, on top of existing taxes."

That should help the airline industry. This is being sponsored by Rep. Dingell (Chairman of the House Energy and Commerce Committee). Have fun watching your Dems wreck the economy because they think the government can control the weather.

because the Repubs have done such a good job. I sure hope we don't get back to the times of 92-00 because those were bad times. especially with all of those trials...:)

ewrbasedpilot
09-27-2007, 05:18 AM
Here is a proposal from your Dem buds:

"WASHINGTON -- Dealing with global warming will be painful, says one of the most powerful Democrats in Congress. To back up his claim he is proposing a recipe many people won't like _ a 50-cent gasoline tax, a carbon tax and scaling back tax breaks for some home owners. _A 50-cent-a-gallon tax on gasoline and jet fuel, phased in over five years, on top of existing taxes."

That should help the airline industry. This is being sponsored by Rep. Dingell (Chairman of the House Energy and Commerce Committee). Have fun watching your Dems wreck the economy because they think the government can control the weather.

Ha Ha!! I watched Bush take a SURPLUS and throw it all away. I've watched oil go through the roof, and I've watched the airlines get decimated......all under his highness Georgia boy. Yet CEO's and oil companies are making so much money they don't make banks big enough to store it all, and Bush blames US for this big problem. But then again, we have this really popular war that George got us into, that's cost us over 3800 lives and almost a half trillion dollars with NO END IN SIGHT (the so-called "war" plan that he won the election on is still unkown to everyone, including himself), but hey, I don't mind taking paycuts so guys like him and Cheney can make money in the oil industry, do you? I've also watched his administration whack the contollers salaries and benefits (we paid for that one dearly over the summer too!!! YAHOO!!! ). Yep, the republicans have been wonderful for this industry, haven't they? :rolleyes:

ewrbasedpilot
09-27-2007, 05:21 AM
It's called supply and demand. Have you been reading the Daily Worker?

Gee, has the demand quadrupled in the last couple of years? I don't hardly think so. How many refineries have been built with all these oil profits? Where is Halliburtons new headquarters going to be? How convenient. HMMMMM.........:eek::rolleyes:

av8r4aa
09-27-2007, 06:38 AM
I can assure Jamie, with a 20 % paycut ,100% of the metal
WILL NOT MOVE!!!!!!!

HalinTexas
09-27-2007, 06:48 AM
The top 7 oil companies control less than 10% of the crude in the world.

The Age of Oil: The Mythology......
Leonardo Maugeri.

http://www.amazon.com/Age-Oil-Mythology-Controversial-Resource/dp/0275990087/ref=pd_bbs_sr_1/002-6526009-2826419?ie=UTF8&s=books&qid=1190904174&sr=8-1

Go blame your governments of the world, including the US no matter witch party is in power.

Pilot7576
09-27-2007, 07:32 AM
Folks....

Being that the contract is amendable and doesn't expire, I would say that the chance of a paycut is exactly equal to the chance that AA declares bankruptcy and voids the pilot contract. I don't see any circumstances where the APA would vote to cut pay in any way, shape or form.

JMO

Pilot7576

atpcliff
09-27-2007, 08:46 AM
Hi!

A couple of misconceptions:

The Iraq war has so far cost at least $2Trillion.

The demand for oil has basically equalled or exceeded the supply for about the last 6 months. If demand had quadrupled, God only knows what the price would be-at least $1000/barrel.

cliff
GRB

swaayze
09-28-2007, 07:19 AM
100% chance the analyst doesn't really have a clue.

My headline: APA likely to agree to temporary 100% paycut if management doesn't agree to pay raises.

Can you say strike?

Mink
09-28-2007, 08:25 PM
including the US no matter witch party is in power.

What if the Warlock party is in power?

BoilerUP
09-29-2007, 03:47 AM
How many refineries have been built with all these oil profits?

None, because nobody wants to have one in their backyard....yet they'll whine to the high heavens that gasoline and heating oil "costs too much".

HercDriver130
09-29-2007, 04:12 AM
You speak the truth Boiler...its rampant in our society.... the "not in my backyard syndrome".....

Years ago I lived in NC for 10 years...the entire 10 years the govt of NC and the people argued over where to put a nuclear waste facility for the spent fuel rods from two LARGE nuclear plants in eastern NC.... 10 freaking years... they wanted cheap power ...but they wanted to ship the crap elsewhere.....unbelievable....

China and India are the demand hogs right now...... not the small demand growth in this country.

Hacker15e
09-29-2007, 04:32 AM
I can assure Jamie, with a 20 % paycut ,100% of the metal
WILL NOT MOVE!!!!!!!

Uhhh, it's not a 20% pay cut...it is a 20% chance of a pay cut.

XJPILOT1
09-29-2007, 06:37 AM
I sure hope we don't get back to the times of 92-00 because those were bad times. especially with all of those trials...:)[/quote]

I hope your're not serious here. I want someone who things the Prez back then was the reason the economy was good, to post your 2 cents. I gotta tell ya, he did nothing to help or hurt the economy back then. Unless government passes crazy legislation (like income tax give backs Bush 2002-present) it's status quo. The Dens are Socialists by definition. They rob from the rich and give to the useless.

B757200ER
09-29-2007, 08:52 AM
AA management really shouldn't **** off the APA in advance of Section 6 negotiations. Really breeds bad faith, don't you agree?

Eric Stratton
09-29-2007, 10:38 AM
I sure hope we don't get back to the times of 92-00 because those were bad times. especially with all of those trials...:)

I hope your're not serious here. I want someone who things the Prez back then was the reason the economy was good, to post your 2 cents. I gotta tell ya, he did nothing to help or hurt the economy back then. Unless government passes crazy legislation (like income tax give backs Bush 2002-present) it's status quo. The Dens are Socialists by definition. They rob from the rich and give to the useless.[/QUOTE]

and the republicans rob from the poor and give to the rich...

I thought the republicans were suppose to be conservative, you know spend less and have a smaller government so we can have less taxes.

so what has bush done in the help vs. hurt us category...

REAL Pilot
09-29-2007, 02:16 PM
Under the circumstances of 9/11, war and recession; the economy has been pretty good.
-inflation is low
-unemployment is low
-the stock market has made gains
-corporations are making money
-interest rates are low
-oil is still priced lower than 25 years ago- corrected for inflation of course

Those generalizations are fact but didn't want to spend a hour getting the stats. Do you really think Hillary and Obama are going to help a free-market/capitalistic economy? Bill gave us NAFTA-real friend of labor.

Sparky
09-29-2007, 02:40 PM
--------------------------------------------------------------------------Just wanted to add a few comments!------

Under the circumstances of 9/11, war and recession; the economy has been pretty good.
-inflation is low (except for health care, housing, energy, and bread)
-unemployment is low (a lot of low wage service jobs for everybody)
-the stock market has made gains (great for the top 1% of the country)
-corporations are making money (CEOs richer, workers poorer, makes since)
-interest rates are low (already in debt, lets borrow more)
-oil is still priced lower than 25 years ago- corrected for inflation of course (Yah, didn't we learn our lesson about foreign oil 25 yrs ago?)

XJPILOT1
09-29-2007, 02:54 PM
--------------------------------------------------------------------------Just wanted to add a few comments! (me too) ------

Under the circumstances of 9/11, war and recession; the economy has been pretty good.
-inflation is low (except for health care [too many rediculuos lawsuits], housing [good if you're selling], energy, and bread [I shop at outlets])
-unemployment is low (a lot of low wage service jobs for everybody [keeps 'em off welfare until they retrain like I did])
-the stock market has made gains (great for the top 1% of the country[actually most pensions and 401k's are investments in the stock market])
-corporations are making money (CEOs richer, workers poorer, makes since[sorry no money no jobs!])
-interest rates are low (already in debt, lets borrow more [free will here, ya make you own bed])
-oil is still priced lower than 25 years ago- corrected for inflation of course (Yah, didn't we learn our lesson about foreign oil 25 yrs ago? [no one wants to use US oil!???])

Economic policies are not the domain of incumbent presidents. Ask Greenspan or Bernanke. When they speak the world stops moving.

FliFast
09-29-2007, 03:43 PM
Would the APA really strike over this ??? Would they rally themselves to their union leaders and say..."Hey APA, tell those hoot-doodles in Fort Worth to shove it ?"

I'm hoping the dummy at JP Morgan is also predicting that Spring comes after Summer..we'll see.

7576FO
09-30-2007, 06:02 AM
Ok, let's just for grins say Mr. Analyst dead-on.

And say the AA pilots take another pay cut. I currently make over 120K yr.
Say a 20% pay cut and basically keep the same work rules. Maybe a little more productivity of 3-5 extra hours a month.

Everybody chime in. Would it still be worth it? To you?
Would you come back form recall?
Would you interview for the job?
If you were a Regional guy would you flow thruogh?
If you were a regional guy/girl would you apply?

It matters more what you think then some Analyst.
Analysts are like weathermen, sometimes wrong.

CVG767A
09-30-2007, 07:34 AM
This has become a pretty long thread, considering that it's in response to an analyst's comment. We've all seen them wrong and ill-informed far too frequently. It's a wonder that anyone actually pays them for their opinions.

I'll bet against the analyst this time, too.

FlyByCable
09-30-2007, 01:28 PM
This has become a pretty long thread, considering that it's in response to an analyst's comment. We've all seen them to be wrong and ill-informed far too frequently. It's a wonder that anyone actually pays them for their opinions.

I'll bet against the analyst this time, too.


It seems that the general consensus amongst the economists is that we are headed into a recession of some sort. The degree of which they don't know. The problem for those airlines whose contracts are coming up on the amendable date is that they are going to have to negotiate in a declining economic climate and management will take full advantage of any bad economic news. It will be to management's advantage to drag out any negotiations until the economy starts to go south.

tomgoodman
09-30-2007, 03:33 PM
Analysts have to write something, or they don't get paid. :rolleyes:


Reuters
AMR shares could rise 50 pct: Barron's
Sunday September 30, 3:54 pm ET


NEW YORK (Reuters) - American Airlines' (NYSE:AMR - News) shares could rise 50 percent or more in the next year according to a Barron's report that cited factors such as a potential unit spin-off and an improving balance sheet.

The October 1 edition cited a call last week from Iceland's FL Group, a 9-percent owner of AMR, for the airline to spin off its frequent-flier business.

It said FL valued the AAdvantage program at $6 billion and estimated that a spin-off could raise value by $4 billion for shareholders of AMR, which has a market value of $6.6 billion.

The report said Wall Street appeared to be betting that AMR would reject FL's suggestion, but cited a $2.1 billion reduction in debt at AMR in the last year to $17.3 billion at the end of the second quarter and said AMR, which closed up 27 cents at $22.29 on Friday, was well below its January peak of $41.

Even if it decides against a spin-off, AMR is "an attractive stock" Barron's said. "Hostage now to fuel and economic concerns, AMR could see its shares rise 50 percent or more in the next year," according to Barron's report.

FliFast
09-30-2007, 05:50 PM
Ok, let's just for grins say Mr. Analyst dead-on.

And say the AA pilots take another pay cut. I currently make over 120K yr.
.

Hmmm, that's about how much I'll make when I get recalled to American. Cant wait to be back...I just hope it doesnt get to be paycuts vs. furloughes like it was in 2003.

flybynuts
09-30-2007, 06:09 PM
I actually have a friend who is an analyist for a big firm; Merril somebody? Anyhow, it is scary when you realize that these guys are just like your everyday guy who just gathers data about one particular subject and then does his best forecasting (rolling bones, educated guess and etc..) to make their REQUIRED reports. We laugh everytime we get together and talk over beers. Ne is a very smart guy but not a God. Most here on this post would qualify for his position.

⌐ AV8OR WANNABE
09-30-2007, 07:50 PM
As long as we continue to have an "oil friendly" administration who cares less about the workers...
I was wondering just how long before this would turn into a Bush bashing?

Maybe because of where you’re based your brain has been severely Sewark polluted? Not sure, however you’re based close enough to Canada – you can always go over there and surrender, it’s never too late for a leftie to surrender…;)

⌐ AV8OR WANNABE
09-30-2007, 07:53 PM
... How many refineries have been built with all these oil profits? ... You mean the tree huggers allow for the refineries to be built again? Really? Heck, the democrats will tell you how much they are for the environment, the solar and the wind energy, etc. Until they realize those wind turbines might become visible from their coastline mansions’ - then they just "cancel" some of those projects without any explanation whatsoever. Same with refineries, oil exploration, etc. etc. Talk, talk, *****, whine, lie and then blame the high oil prices on “oil-friendly” administration. Oh, don’t forget to blame every terrorist attack in the world on America – because we are the reason to all evil on Earth.

"...I sure hope we don't get back to the times of 92-00 because those were bad times..."

I miss those times too - which is why I miss the person behind the great economy of the late 90s - Ronald Reagan...

⌐ AV8OR WANNABE
09-30-2007, 08:17 PM
Hmmm, that's about how much I'll make when I get recalled to American. Cant wait to be back...I just hope it doesnt get to be paycuts vs. furloughes like it was in 2003.
Are you serious?...

Oldfreightdawg
10-01-2007, 12:26 AM
I actually have a friend who is an analyist for a big firm; Merril somebody? Anyhow, it is scary when you realize that these guys are just like your everyday guy who just gathers data about one particular subject and then does his best forecasting (rolling bones, educated guess and etc..) to make their REQUIRED reports. We laugh everytime we get together and talk over beers. Ne is a very smart guy but not a God. Most here on this post would qualify for his position.

I'm sure your friend is a great guy and works hard at what he does, but your right. Most analysts tow the company line because they depend on management for inside information-for their REQUIRED reports. Mr Baker has made at least a dozen wrong calls on AMR stock in the past 5 years. The fact that he states APA has higher wage rates than competitors is only correct in 2 or 3 cases: UAL and DAL most notably. SWA's wage rate is higher than AAL's total compensation (pay and pension). Funny he doesn't mention that. BTW, JP Morgan, of whom Mr. Baker is employed by, also happens to manage AMR's retirement services (401k) and AMR's employee stock option plan.

Eric Stratton
10-01-2007, 02:27 PM
You mean the tree huggers allow for the refineries to be built again? Really? Heck, the democrats will tell you how much they are for the environment, the solar and the wind energy, etc. Until they realize those wind turbines might become visible from their coastline mansions’ - then they just "cancel" some of those projects without any explanation whatsoever. Same with refineries, oil exploration, etc. etc. Talk, talk, *****, whine, lie and then blame the high oil prices on “oil-friendly” administration. Oh, don’t forget to blame every terrorist attack in the world on America – because we are the reason to all evil on Earth.

"...I sure hope we don't get back to the times of 92-00 because those were bad times..."

I miss those times too - which is why I miss the person behind the great economy of the late 90s - Ronald Reagan...


that always makes me laugh when reagan is given credit for things that happened 4-12 years after the fact. can you verify/answer this for me. How much debt did reagan accumulate during his trickle down economics vs. the 39 previous presidents. last I heard it was more than all 39 combined.

Slice
10-01-2007, 02:43 PM
Are you serious?...

Hope so, moves me up a number! :D

7576FO
10-01-2007, 02:48 PM
Reagan was the first to borrow (using term very loosely) from Social Security. Bush Sr the 2nd and he put an "IOU" in the 500 millions place. Bush W the 3rd to take money (800 million) if I remember correctly.

AV8OR think B4 you transmit. Please.
I'm not a leftie, and I do fondly remember Reagan, but not the way you apparently do.
Now go listen to Rush Limbaugh.

Slice
10-01-2007, 02:51 PM
that always makes me laugh when reagan is given credit for things that happened 4-12 years after the fact. can you verify/answer this for me. How much debt did reagan accumulate during his trickle down economics vs. the 39 previous presidents. last I heard it was more than all 39 combined.

He also ended the Cold War and brought democracy to Eastern Europe. It's an economic fact that policy changes don't show results overnight. The dot-com bubble that burst was formed on Clinton's watch. Bush was in the white house about 60 days when that began so you probably blame it on him.

Oldfreightdawg
10-02-2007, 04:59 AM
How do we manage to get so far from the orginal point in these theads? No wonder we can't negotiate respectable contracts. FOCUS

7576FO
10-02-2007, 05:08 AM
How do we manage to get so far from the orginal point in these theads? No wonder we can't negotiate respectable contracts. FOCUS


I know what you're say "Look a bird" oops my attention deficit disorder sorry.

Hey, i'm guilty of the occasional [email protected]#*Jack a thread disorder.
I'll try to be better in the future.

It happens on all message boards.

pilotss
10-02-2007, 06:50 AM
Analyst Jamie Baker of JP Morgan suggests that contract talks at American Airlines aren't likely to produce a steep increase in employee wages, and could even result in a pay cut. Here's what he said in a report:We ascribe a 50% probability to a wage increase no larger than 10%, 30% probability to wage-neutral contracts, and 20% probability to lower wages. Yes, we just said 'lower wages'. Management and pilot rhetoric likely to deteriorate next year, but pilots know they're walking a tightrope. Any involvement of an NMB-appointed mediator down the road would likely focus on the fact that AMR wage rates are meaningfully higher than market to begin with. Sure, pilots may ask for hefty increases, but the facts remain: AMR wage rates are already uncompetitive, and negotiations are taking place against a backdrop of economic uncertainty. Not too shabby of a position for management, or stakeholders, to be in, in our view.


How about these estimates:
50% chance AA pilots won't ever press their uniforms, shine their shoes, call for fuel,
30% chance AA pilots don't add extra fuel causing diverts, play it safe and taxi SLOOOOOW, use all available sick time on all holidays, don't budge on any contractual items, do not pick up any open time.
20% chance AA pilots WALK.

7576FO
10-02-2007, 10:01 AM
How about these estimates:
50% chance AA pilots won't ever press their uniforms, shine their shoes, call for fuel,
30% chance AA pilots don't add extra fuel causing diverts, play it safe and taxi SLOOOOOW, use all available sick time on all holidays, don't budge on any contractual items, do not pick up any open time.
20% chance AA pilots WALK.

Entertaining!

Not all of us are against JetBlue. So what's your story?

My wife takes all my stuff to the cleaners.
I don't get shoe shines that often.
I think the 80 has the most diverts for fuel.
I've never called in sick for a Holiday. Yes, i'm part chicken.
I'll walk, It won't be a long one, we'll get ordered back.

skywatch
10-03-2007, 02:16 PM
Ok, let's just for grins say Mr. Analyst dead-on.

And say the AA pilots take another pay cut. I currently make over 120K yr.
Say a 20% pay cut and basically keep the same work rules. Maybe a little more productivity of 3-5 extra hours a month.

Everybody chime in. Would it still be worth it? To you?
Would you come back form recall?
Would you interview for the job?
If you were a Regional guy would you flow thruogh?
If you were a regional guy/girl would you apply?

It matters more what you think then some Analyst.
Analysts are like weathermen, sometimes wrong.

OK, that's twice in this thread. The analyst said a 20% chance of a paycut, NOT a 20% chance of a 20% paycut...I hope people are better at deciphering the QRH or the MEL than they are on these boards...:D

7576FO
10-03-2007, 06:20 PM
By saying "say a 20% pay cut" it meant hypothetically.

I was aware the Analyst wrote 20% chance of a pay cut.

Not being defensive here Skywatch, but you should take a look at Boeing QRH's I make mistakes on them. Flap malfunction and hydraulic malfuntions are difficult to figure out in the sim.

And don't get me started on the MEL's

You should hear me read Dr Seuss to my kid!