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View Full Version : Retirements


SkyHigh
11-22-2009, 11:05 AM
Pilots like to debate future retirements and their effect on aviation but few seem to consider what a wave of boomer retirements means to the rest of the working world.

Industries and professions that have been locked up since the 1970's will begin to see a flood of openings. Once the economy turns around and the boomers feel comfortable letting their jobs go there will be a surge in hiring.

Police, fire, linemen jobs will all start to pop up. Something to consider.

Skyhigh


hindsight2020
11-22-2009, 04:22 PM
Agreed, that retirements on other fields will yield a marginal increase in the aggregate wealth accumulation potential for the younger generations. The effect on 121 ops will however not be as dramatic as most people HOPE it will be.

That said, my beef with the boomers is that by delaying their own retirements they are forcing me to start capitalizing at an older age, therefore sliding my income producing years to the right in ways that all but cement the need for the younger generation to work past 60. The only alternative I would have is accepting a lower quality of life and attempting to retire before 60 regardless of what my economic condition is at the time. Most people will unfortunately default to feeling "forced" to continue working past 60 as they set out their economic expectations on benchmarks of 20th century bubble economics, which will all but disappear from the American landscape circa 2040 (when Gen Y starts reaching the classical definition of retirement age).

It's not looking good for the home team (and I'm not talking about the boomers....), but if you're able to lower your expectations in wealth and retirement, a decent living could still be had in 2040 America. As it stands however, nobody got into the "borrow for education", six figure debt between a degree and a mortgage racket, to end up having to downgrade their life expectations. That is the biggest wildcard in the future deconstruction of our society. I see a lot of bitterness and lashing against boomers once Gen X fully ages and Gen Y starts retiring. Grandma boomer is going to have a rough last decade once she breaks the budget on her medicare and SS while the kids do without mcmansions and toys...and retirements too. That said, I do welcome the departure of the boomers from the workforce, good freggin' riddance and wishes of a Merry early Xmas...

Superpilot92
11-22-2009, 05:14 PM
Agreed, that retirements on other fields will yield a marginal increase in the aggregate wealth accumulation potential for the younger generations. The effect on 121 ops will however not be as dramatic as most people HOPE it will be.
That said, my beef with the boomers is that by delaying their own retirements they are forcing me to start capitalizing at an older age, therefore sliding my income producing years to the right in ways that all but cement the need for the younger generation to work past 60. The only alternative I would have is accepting a lower quality of life and attempting to retire before 60 regardless of what my economic condition is at the time. Most people will unfortunately default to feeling "forced" to continue working past 60 as they set out their economic expectations on benchmarks of 20th century bubble economics, which will all but disappear from the American landscape circa 2040 (when Gen Y starts reaching the classical definition of retirement age).

It's not looking good for the home team (and I'm not talking about the boomers....), but if you're able to lower your expectations in wealth and retirement, a decent living could still be had in 2040 America. As it stands however, nobody got into the "borrow for education", six figure debt between a degree and a mortgage racket, to end up having to downgrade their life expectations. That is the biggest wildcard in the future deconstruction of our society. I see a lot of bitterness and lashing against boomers once Gen X fully ages and Gen Y starts retiring. Grandma boomer is going to have a rough last decade once she breaks the budget on her medicare and SS while the kids do without mcmansions and toys...and retirements too. That said, I do welcome the departure of the boomers from the workforce, good freggin' riddance and wishes of a Merry early Xmas...

Have you seen the upcoming retirement numbers in the next 10 years for the majors? It is a known FACT that the numbers WILL be dramatic. Look for yourself, there's even a thread on this site that breaks them down per company and total.


Rascal
11-23-2009, 07:45 PM
Have you seen the upcoming retirement numbers in the next 10 years for the majors? It is a known FACT that the numbers WILL be dramatic. Look for yourself, there's even a thread on this site that breaks them down per company and total.

This sounds nice and dandy but it still does not give anyone better pay or job security. The shortage will be counteracted with regional replacing the majors. 10 years from now there won't be any "majors". What Republic is doing is just the beginning and something tells me that Delta management is watching very closely. The secret is out: pilots will fly 100 people for 30K a year! 10 years from now your Major job will be replaced by another regional...

Superpilot92
11-23-2009, 08:03 PM
This sounds nice and dandy but it still does not give anyone better pay or job security. The shortage will be counteracted with regional replacing the majors. 10 years from now there won't be any "majors". What Republic is doing is just the beginning and something tells me that Delta management is watching very closely. The secret is out: pilots will fly 100 people for 30K a year! 10 years from now your Major job will be replaced by another regional...

yeah and the worlds going to end in 2012.....:rolleyes:

hindsight2020
11-24-2009, 11:34 AM
This sounds nice and dandy but it still does not give anyone better pay or job security. The shortage will be counteracted with regional replacing the majors. 10 years from now there won't be any "majors". What Republic is doing is just the beginning and something tells me that Delta management is watching very closely. The secret is out: pilots will fly 100 people for 30K a year! 10 years from now your Major job will be replaced by another regional...

Bingo. What the "retirements are coming" crowd needs to get through their thick skull is the less than one-for-one job replacement at the majors. People need to understand that just looking at numbers and ASSUMING replacements are one-for-one is no less wishful thinking than the kid dropping six figure debt for a zero to hero "4 year adventure" program at Purdue. Retirement numbers will be gobbled up by capacity constriction and scope relaxation. Meaning that steady-state, there will be a bunch of people driving 100+ seaters for 70K top-out on the left seat, 30K on the right, and hardly any representation on the market of the 150K+ 20 days off mythical unicorn all these fools got into aviation for in the first place. So in that respect, the number of retirements don't matter one iota.

Just like boomers in other professions, theirs is an economic "up and fold the ladder" dynamic. It is present not just in aviation.

dozer
11-24-2009, 10:10 PM
[quote=hindsight2020;716512]Bingo. What the "retirements are coming" crowd needs to get through their thick skull is the less than one-for-one job replacement at the majors. People need to understand that just looking at numbers and ASSUMING replacements are one-for-one is no less wishful thinking than the kid dropping six figure debt for a zero to hero "4 year adventure" program at Purdue. Retirement numbers will be gobbled up by capacity constriction and scope relaxation. Meaning that steady-state, there will be a bunch of people driving 100+ seaters for 70K top-out on the left seat, 30K on the right, and hardly any representation on the market of the 150K+ 20 days off mythical unicorn all these fools got into aviation for in the first place. So in that respect, the number of retirements don't matter one iota.

Just like boomers in other professions, theirs is an economic "up and fold the ladder" dynamic. It is present not just in aviation.


Most intelligent thing I have read in a while hindsight, well put.

SkyHigh
11-27-2009, 02:26 PM
Yea the world is changing and that is for sure. Job security and future expectations should not be based on past performance.

Skyhigh

Hacker15e
11-27-2009, 03:03 PM
my beef with the boomers is that by delaying their own retirements they are forcing me to start capitalizing at an older age,

Uh, what?

Life is not a seniority system. It's not a closed shop. You have every opportunity to make as much money as you can whenever you want -- none of it hinges on when people older than you retire.

jonnyjetprop
11-30-2009, 08:14 AM
What he is saying is that the boomer generation is the driver for more air transportation. If they delay spending their retirements, that delays growth at the airlines. It's the growth at the airlines that caused the rapid expansion of pilot positions and captain upgrades.

Uh, what?

Life is not a seniority system. It's not a closed shop. You have every opportunity to make as much money as you can whenever you want -- none of it hinges on when people older than you retire.

hindsight2020
12-01-2009, 07:03 AM
Uh, what?

Life is not a seniority system. It's not a closed shop. You have every opportunity to make as much money as you can whenever you want -- none of it hinges on when people older than you retire.

From a self-employment perspective, aka the cotton-candy happy land of CNN talking heads telling every unemployed manual laborer the key to all their problems is a simple choice of "start your own business, presto!", then yeah, you're right. Personally I blame it on my father really, if he hadn't been so freggin' low middle class I would have been able to charge at life going full AB, gambling my rent check at every corner, getting my money in every ponzi scheme and reinventing the business model 10 times a day, selling people pet rocks and slappin' an iPod logo on it, chase every hot tail without abandon just because she's hot THAT day, all this KNOWING at the end of the day I can fail miserably and not remove a single crumb of bread from my mouth. Alas, I wasn't born with a safety net of capital to enact the garbage mantra that seeks to minimize the time-sensitive nature of a lifespan and the finite number of opportunities that exist in a median person's life, absent a safety net. I guess my father wasn't so ill-providing after all.:rolleyes:

Ergo, for the rest of the working stiffs working in the real world of scarcity of resources and life inequities, you dang right it's a seniority system; it's worse than that, it's an outright Visa "line of people" commercial , waiting for the dope ahead of ya to break a hip going down the stairs. People who challenge this notion are just uncomfortable with the idea of being disposable. Pilots of all people should be intimately cued in to the disposable nature of our labor value. We train and strive to become carbon copies of each other.

Can I depart the proverbial fix early and gamble my rent check for the sake of my wealth accumulation not hinging on the scarcity imposed by another human being competing for the same job I need? Sure. But when I fail at it there's no amount of "pep talk" that's going to save me from my inability to take care of my basic needs. Even in social safety net europe I would be averse to taking such a liberal approach to my livelihood. In "the heck with you, I got mine" America? Forget it, that's asking to get made an example out of.

This is not just aviation. Goverment jobs are this way, private jobs have similar dynamics. This is not to say the notion of self-employed financial independence is strictly mythical, it is just that it is largely placed in improper context, by highlighting the outlandish outcomes without giving proper weight and attention to the initial conditions and backings that are usually in place for the median successfully self-employed person to get to that condition. As such, it reads like a brochure with none of the disclaimers.

As always YMMV, for the majority, we agree to disagree, from a labor standpoint, life is quite indeed a line at the walmart......



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