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View Full Version : FDX-- Bid is finally out!


FXDX
04-01-2010, 12:46 PM
Vacancy, 24 crews for the 75.

Its something.





Oh yeah,

discuss.........!


fdxShark
04-01-2010, 12:52 PM
Posting 10-01
Official Posting of Crewmembers
Vacancy (V) or Excess (E)
Current
No. of Crew Position Vac. Type/ Training Seniority
Positions V/E Dom. Equip. Seat Length Start Date High / Low
24 V MEM 757 CAP P/INDEF May 2010 139 2429
24 V MEM 757 F/O P/INDEF May 2010 1479 4194

fdxShark
04-01-2010, 12:56 PM
Sorry for the jumbled format of the previous post. Looked good on the preview. Best I could do on a "cut-n-paste" on an iPhone from Teipei! :D


gcsass
04-01-2010, 12:57 PM
What I thought was most interesting was the estimated operating airframes. Look at the numbers for May of '10, '11 and 12. That seems fairly positive:).

Huck
04-01-2010, 12:59 PM
fleet plan

..........nb: wb:

5/10: 66 205
5/11: 81 205
5/12: 81 208

FDXLAG
04-01-2010, 01:00 PM
Must mean 4A2b is about over. They dont want to overpay the 75 anymore if they have to buy up the others.

Jumbo Pilot
04-01-2010, 01:01 PM
The part about the fleet plan that is interesting to me is that the Bus seems fairly stable. As much rumor as we had heard about a Bus excess....

hmm.. interesting for sure.

KnightFlyer
04-01-2010, 01:22 PM
Still awaiting business plan and lift forecast completion ... standby

Daniel Larusso
04-01-2010, 01:23 PM
The part about the fleet plan that is interesting to me is that the Bus seems fairly stable. As much rumor as we had heard about a Bus excess....

hmm.. interesting for sure.

The numbers on the -11 and the Bus have always been weird and hard to truly pin down since they started this 'operating fleet' stuff. They don't include spares, mx, etc, and that seems to be more of a floating number than they let on. From what I can tell between 09-02 and 10-01, the projection for May 10 has us losing 17 total Airbii hulls, but operating 11 more a/c than envisioned roughly a year ago.

Daniel Larusso
04-01-2010, 01:46 PM
Must mean 4A2b is about over. They dont want to overpay the 75 anymore if they have to buy up the others.

It could be as simple that as that, but knowing them it probably isn't. 24 crews only represents 2-3 months training max with 12 a/c coming between May 10-11. Perhaps this is a fishing expedition to see if they can entice the senior people off the front seats of the 727? I don't know why they would move if they haven't by now, but I'm betting they prefer to move those guys over versus excessing the 727. It looks like they've basically posted the excess number for the 727, which is pretty much in line with what they did before I believe. It looks like they're planning on running the BLG's in the front seats way up by leaning things out even further than they are now and whatever surplus is left they hope to force to HKG or simply pay min-guarantee or BUV for those people in the back seat until they are absorbed into the front. Looks like that will occur starting next year because while the 727 operating fleet increases slightly this year, it's looking at a big drop in 2011-2012. I wonder how many people will get roped into going to HKG this year without thinking about that?

Cujo
04-01-2010, 01:48 PM
... 15 days doesn't give a lot of time to "call their bluff" and expect something better to come along down the road. Tough game this "poker."

The Walrus
04-01-2010, 01:50 PM
I think that the small number of vacancies is because they still don't know what they want to do, but they definitely do not want the 757 training letter to run out. They are just buying themselves a few more months to pull the trigger on whatever it is that they are planning.

JethroFDX
04-01-2010, 01:57 PM
... 15 days doesn't give a lot of time to "call their bluff" and expect something better to come along down the road. Tough game this "poker."

This maybe something similar to the 40 or so vacancies they had for the Bus about 3 years ago.

But then again a smaller bid is smart in my opinion. I'm no expert but I think smaller bids in the past would have saved folks some major heartburn.

pipe
04-01-2010, 02:15 PM
This maybe something similar to the 40 or so vacancies they had for the Bus about 3 years ago.

But then again a smaller bid is smart in my opinion. I'm no expert but I think smaller bids in the past would have saved folks some major heartburn.

Truer words were never said. Bids should not be any bigger than needed to keep the training pipelines full for 3-4 months. Anything longer includes a massive drop-off in accuracy - for no good reason.

PIPE

fdxShark
04-01-2010, 02:19 PM
The only thing that makes sense right now is a vacancy bid. Their hopes are to get some "junior" folks into the 757 seats. An excess in 727 s/o seat would be futile right now. The majority couldn't be excessed any where.

Jumbo Pilot
04-01-2010, 02:22 PM
I think that the small number of vacancies is because they still don't know what they want to do, but they definitely do not want the 757 training letter to run out. They are just buying themselves a few more months to pull the trigger on whatever it is that they are planning.


I'm with you. More to follow.

FDXLAG
04-01-2010, 02:34 PM
It could be as simple that as that, but knowing them it probably isn't. 24 crews only represents 2-3 months training max with 12 a/c coming between May 10-11. Perhaps this is a fishing expedition to see if they can entice the senior people off the front seats of the 727? I don't know why they would move if they haven't by now, but I'm betting they prefer to move those guys over versus excessing the 727. It looks like they've basically posted the excess number for the 727, which is pretty much in line with what they did before I believe. It looks like they're planning on running the BLG's in the front seats way up by leaning things out even further than they are now and whatever surplus is left they hope to force to HKG or simply pay min-guarantee or BUV for those people in the back seat until they are absorbed into the front. Looks like that will occur starting next year because while the 727 operating fleet increases slightly this year, it's looking at a big drop in 2011-2012. I wonder how many people will get roped into going to HKG this year without thinking about that?

Maybe but if the senior guys are at all like me they aren't going to bid this and spend summer in Memphis. While I agree smaller bids are great they need to be regular if you want any commuters to participate.

Burgenflyer
04-01-2010, 04:04 PM
I was looking on the pilot web site and the number of operational jets forecast for May 2011 as of 9-3-09 was 266. The latest vacancy has us with 286 as of May 2011. A net gain of 20 airplanes for next year should help with the over manning.

JethroFDX
04-01-2010, 04:11 PM
Maybe but if the senior guys are at all like me they aren't going to bid this and spend summer in Memphis. While I agree smaller bids are great they need to be regular if you want any commuters to participate.


Yeah, the summer equation will play a considerable factor. Thus smaller bids would allow a more controlled training date by the pilot. Plus it would avoid all those crazy e-mails on trading training dates and such.

Looking for a cheap crystal ball to gaze into......

Daniel Larusso
04-01-2010, 04:48 PM
Maybe but if the senior guys are at all like me they aren't going to bid this and spend summer in Memphis. While I agree smaller bids are great they need to be regular if you want any commuters to participate.

I agree with you that the senior guys aren't going anywhere on this thing. Besides the training issue you've mentioned, those that haven't left have had several opportunities to do so and haven't, what's different now? From what I can see online, the 757 bid pack doesn't look all that exciting to me, and now with the BUV deal those guys can get more pay for less work than they'd be doing on the 757. I don't see the carrot, but that doesn't change the companies wants and I think they'd prefer it go down that way vs. excesses in the 727 front seats.

I think the smaller bids would be a great idea as others have said, but I see no indication that they've changed their views on this. In fact it looks like biz as usual as they stall and stall trying to figure out the 'perfect' plan for the whole year like such a thing is possible. Just like the aforementioned Airbus bid was the result of one of those Waiting for Godot periods, so is this one imo. I think they'd advertise if they had a change in philosophy, acting like they'd found the Lost Dutchman's gold after 'considering industry practice'. From their point of view, I can't blame them this time though. We've shown a great deal of impatience and naivete as a group when it comes to bidding(I've never seen pilots at other airlines asking their union how to bid). With HKG MD looking like a go, their one big bid philosophy with an overreaching excess could be just the thing that fills the HKG seats as people probably lack the patience to wait a year for more domestic seats to open up. People go nuts waiting a week or a month for a new bid, a year will be too much. Each round of excesses go further and further up the list, hitting people who are generally more comfortable and have more money to lose which naturally clouds decisions.

Gunter
04-01-2010, 08:06 PM
fleet plan

..........nb: wb:

5/10: 66 205
5/11: 81 205
5/12: 81 208

This is set in jello. Wait 6 months and it'll change again. Wouldn't count on it myself.

Read PC's comments again. He said they're still working on the business plan. That includes the fleet plan. I personally think the Airbus plan is particularly vulnerable to changes.

Also, what happens when they open up the MD11 HKG domicile? The need for MEM MD crews goes way down. The rumor the schoolhouse will all but close up shop may come to be if they only have to give a few requals to former nuggets and to CAs that were recently downgraded.

I predict no secondaries into the MD 11 unless the HKG domicile goes away. (That would be on the bid to follow this one.) So 757 is looking better all the time.

ANCFRTDG
04-01-2010, 08:22 PM
Standby for the excess bid on the Bus and the 727 which is supposed to be out soon?? Why they would post a vaccancy bid before an excess bid??? Oh may have something to do woth the upcomming MD-11 base in HKG. It's going to be interesting!!!

Gunter
04-01-2010, 08:44 PM
They wanted to wait until a tentative decision was made on HKG MD11 but couldn't. The 757 training letter has run out!

BTW, I'll be calling HKG MD11 tentative until we see a bidpack. Just like Paris was called a "done deal" but was in reality just tentative.

AFW_MD11
04-01-2010, 10:33 PM
They wanted to wait until a tentative decision was made on HKG MD11 but couldn't. The 757 training letter has run out!

BTW, I'll be calling HKG MD11 tentative until we see a bidpack. Just like Paris was called a "done deal" but was in reality just tentative.

Rumor of a re-do on the HKG/CDG FDA LOA?

possible sweetening of the deal to entice filling of the HKG MD11 slots?

possible also to cover/include different Euro domicile since only CDG is covered now?

company now "realizes" you can't live in Euro (or HKG for that matter) under the current LOA...may not get enough/anyone to bid HKG MD11 unless improvements offered?

discuss..... ;)

skypine27
04-02-2010, 04:15 AM
company now "realizes" you can't live in Euro (or HKG for that matter) under the current LOA.

Ohh, come on bro. Didn't you see pics of my sweet *** apartment in HKG??

FedExBusBoy
04-02-2010, 04:38 AM
Rumor of a re-do on the HKG/CDG FDA LOA?

possible sweetening of the deal to entice filling of the HKG MD11 slots?

possible also to cover/include different Euro domicile since only CDG is covered now?

company now "realizes" you can't live in Euro (or HKG for that matter) under the current LOA...may not get enough/anyone to bid HKG MD11 unless improvements offered?

discuss..... ;)

LOL.....Not gonna happen

End of discussion

Jumbo Pilot
04-02-2010, 05:11 AM
We are all adults here.. they bid it with their eyes open... and if the company can't fill it... that's not our problem.

Maybe it's wishful thinking but I believe that we as a group learned something from the last round of excess/FDA postings.... And if nothing else, they can't excess forever. Sooner or later the math has to take over.

FR8Hauler
04-02-2010, 05:16 AM
Rumor of a re-do on the HKG/CDG FDA LOA?

possible sweetening of the deal to entice filling of the HKG MD11 slots?

possible also to cover/include different Euro domicile since only CDG is covered now?

company now "realizes" you can't live in Euro (or HKG for that matter) under the current LOA...may not get enough/anyone to bid HKG MD11 unless improvements offered?

discuss..... ;)

I heard this too. Don't count your chickens before they hatch though, if they can wiggle around it they will.

Kooky
04-02-2010, 05:36 AM
Rumor of a re-do on the HKG/CDG FDA LOA?

possible sweetening of the deal to entice filling of the HKG MD11 slots?

possible also to cover/include different Euro domicile since only CDG is covered now?

company now "realizes" you can't live in Euro (or HKG for that matter) under the current LOA...may not get enough/anyone to bid HKG MD11 unless improvements offered?

discuss..... ;)
Hearing some German airports may get an FDA nod.

Gunter
04-02-2010, 06:30 AM
Rumor of a re-do on the HKG/CDG FDA LOA?



Rumor? I guess you could call it that. PC started it -


Attached, please find Posting 10-01 dated April 1, 2010.

The company is still in the process of completing the FY11 Business Plan and the related system form. As a part of the business planning process, we are evaluating plans for an MD11 FDA in Hong Kong largely driven by the Company’s desire to enhance our connectivity within the Asian theatre.


edit - Now I understand what I didn't before. The debate is on changing the LOA and not whether or not a HKG MD11 domicile is being considered. Silly me :p:confused:

FDXLAG
04-02-2010, 06:41 AM
No need to get grumpy. Changing the LOA is different than opening a base.

DaRaiders
04-02-2010, 07:03 AM
Rumor? I guess you could call it that. PC started it -


Attached, please find Posting 10-01 dated April 1, 2010.

The company is still in the process of completing the FY11 Business Plan and the related system form. As a part of the business planning process, we are evaluating plans for an MD11 FDA in Hong Kong largely driven by the Company’s desire to enhance our connectivity within the Asian theatre.


Do you guys read the postings?

I do read the postings. But I know the difference between adding another airframe to an existing base and renegotiaing the FDA LOA.

Gunter
04-02-2010, 07:36 AM
I think I've caught up to you guys.


They may say a HKG MD11 domicile is going to be all MD10s for "local" Asian destinations but we all know they'll use'em for plenty of long haul MD11 flying. Lots of DH money will be saved.



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