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Airway
06-20-2012, 06:03 AM
So AMR is claiming a shortage of pilots "due to sick calls and retirements" resulting in the reduction of flight schedules. What is the prospect of hiring? Are furloughees actively returning or even being called back?

Not much AMR news among all the DL and UA stuff.


aa73
06-20-2012, 06:08 AM
Everything is on hold now pending the judge's decision on Friday along with the company's "best and final" offer being considered by the APA BOD.

Yes the company is extremely short on pilots on most fleets and 100+ retirements on 7/1 won't help matters. If anything it will reduce or maybe even nullify any possible furloughs planned for the inevitable increase in hours we'll be working under the new contract.

What
06-20-2012, 06:58 AM
So AMR is claiming a shortage of pilots "due to sick calls and retirements" resulting in the reduction of flight schedules. What is the prospect of hiring? Are furloughees actively returning or even being called back?

Not much AMR news among all the DL and UA stuff.

Before AA hires, there are still 250 pilots at Eagle who have seniority numbers, we don't know what the flow rate will be for these pilots but like the post above said much depends on the AA 1113 process and the Eagle contract. After that there is also the remanding AA pilots on the list and whoever has bypassed because of uncertainty at AA might also accept a recall.


GAPILOT36
06-20-2012, 09:11 AM
Good chance those "seniority numbers" won't hold with the US/APA Term sheet. It mentions that in there. Don't hold your breath...

What
06-20-2012, 09:18 AM
Good chance those "seniority numbers" won't hold with the US/APA Term sheet. It mentions that in there. Don't hold your breath...

No one is holding their breath, I am not talking about the 824 ruling or the new so called flow agreement, I am talking about Pilots who have had numbers at AA for over a decade and are ahead of some of the guys on furlough! Even if US Airways is to acquire AMR, AA will need to recall pilots with the retirements they are seeing, around 60 bailed out in June, word is that more are looking to go out the door July 1st not to mention what will others decide to do with whatever happens latter this week. AMR as in AA & Eagle are short of airframes and Pilot currently. We will know more of the "master" plan over the next few days.

block30
06-20-2012, 09:27 AM
Everything is on hold now pending the judge's decision on Friday along with the company's "best and final" offer being considered by the APA BOD.

Yes the company is extremely short on pilots on most fleets and 100+ retirements on 7/1 won't help matters. If anything it will reduce or maybe even nullify any possible furloughs planned for the inevitable increase in hours we'll be working under the new contract.

Where did you get that info from, or is that just a hunch? Thanks.

aa73
06-20-2012, 11:39 AM
It's a reasonable guess based on the # of lock-ins for 7/1, along with the fact that the B fund look-back will go away with the judge's ruling (if he rules this Friday.) We do have a pilot who runs an investment business on the side who has accurately predicted every retirement month so far, according to him we should be between 100 and 200 possible retirements on 7/1.

Sliceback
06-20-2012, 11:55 AM
He said "closer to 100" recently.

Stock market recovering from it's recent lows might be the change?

jacjetlag
06-20-2012, 12:08 PM
APA board about to vote whether to send "last/best" offer to membership, within the hour....

aa73
06-20-2012, 03:40 PM
APA BOD rejected the final offer by 11-5. Apparently it was a turd (shocker.) So it will not be presented to the membership, and Judge Lane will rule this Friday.

Game On!

cactusmike
06-20-2012, 03:55 PM
Would imagine there will be a few empty flight decks on Friday. The term FUPM comes to mind.

Sliceback
06-20-2012, 05:03 PM
Official statement commented about lack of details in specific areas and concerns about contract langauge.

Judges have granted additional time in the past. We'll know by Happy Hour on Friday.

Wingtips
06-20-2012, 07:10 PM
APA BOD rejected the final offer by 11-5. Apparently it was a turd (shocker.) So it will not be presented to the membership, and Judge Lane will rule this Friday.

Game On!

I project an 11th hour deal, will Horton really gamble on it, if he gambles wrong a USAIR deal might become an instant deal. A. pilot go out to lunch and 40% of all flight cx for weeks. B. this enters another 4+ months of talks because the judge tells them to get a new 1113, which means nothing new happens at AA, or Eagle.

eaglefly
06-20-2012, 07:47 PM
I project an 11th hour deal, will Horton really gamble on it, if he gambles wrong a USAIR deal might become an instant deal. A. pilot go out to lunch and 40% of all flight cx for weeks. B. this enters another 4+ months of talks because the judge tells them to get a new 1113, which means nothing new happens at AA, or Eagle.

Not outside the realm of possibility. But it matters little if any changes are simply tailored to get past the BOD. The pilot group is a harder sell, especially on scope. Extremely unlikely anything would get a pass unless scope had VERY specific and defendable language. The '97 RJ agreement and the 7300 floor created too much collateral damage.

What's the point of sugaring it up now, only to have it fail once again in a month ?

Truly a poorly played, ugly mess this is. The irony is that if Horton hadn't put Brundage out front, hired Lorenzo's old player and didn't go for the jugular, we may have been in a completely different place now. Almost certainly, CLA's with Parker wouldn't be in place and that would be a totally different equation.

eaglefly
06-20-2012, 08:28 PM
He said "closer to 100" recently.

Stock market recovering from it's recent lows might be the change?

On Friday that guesstimate of about 100, might go back up a bit. I think some guys were on the fence depending on the outcome of negotiations.

swaayze
06-21-2012, 12:07 PM
New pension regulation yesterday would allow AA to freeze the plan and end the lump sum provision in certain cases. 60 day comment period prior to implementation, so I'd expect many retirements in the next 2 mos.

Tomahawk58
06-21-2012, 02:29 PM
New pension regulation yesterday would allow AA to freeze the plan and end the lump sum provision in certain cases. 60 day comment period prior to implementation, so I'd expect many retirements in the next 2 mos.

I don't know where you guys come up with this stuff!

Look the A-fund will be frozen versus terminated. Why would anyone rush to the exit?

The B-fund still has a lump sum feature and even if we move to the new DC plan, it's in the 401K plan and you can take it all upon retirement. Why would anyone rush to the exit?

Both the company and US have proposed pay raises plus the company (AA) has up the ante with a 13.5 percent equity stake in the emerged AA. Why would anyone rush to the exit?

The senior guys will remain senior no matter who eventually lead the company.

This is all wishful thinking to believe we'll see a mad rush for the exits.

I do believe the senior captains over 60 will make an informed decision about whether they keep working or have decided its time to relax. But there won't be any sudden run on the bank here.

eaglefly
06-21-2012, 03:20 PM
I don't know where you guys come up with this stuff!

Look the A-fund will be frozen versus terminated. Why would anyone rush to the exit?

The B-fund still has a lump sum feature and even if we move to the new DC plan, it's in the 401K plan and you can take it all upon retirement. Why would anyone rush to the exit?

Both the company and US have proposed pay raises plus the company (AA) has up the ante with a 13.5 percent equity stake in the emerged AA. Why would anyone rush to the exit?

The senior guys will remain senior no matter who eventually lead the company.

This is all wishful thinking to believe we'll see a mad rush for the exits.

I do believe the senior captains over 60 will make an informed decision about whether they keep working or have decided its time to relax. But there won't be any sudden run on the bank here.

58 left 6/1, all of them early retirements and that's a lot (that would be 700/year in one where only a handful turn 65). The estimate a few weeks ago for 7/1 was 100-200. I thought it would be closer to 100. Recently a source who has been consistantly accurate forcasted that downward to just under 100 (still approaching double that of June). The primary reason for this is the look back lock-in provisions for the B-fund and taking advantage of the 90-day March value which was the peak (April being slightly lower).

However, a forced 1113 will likely raise that to the 120-150 range due to exhaustion, disgust and uncertainty for more senior. Your claims COMPLETELY leave out the truth, which tell me either you're clueless about this issue and its associated factors (as a paid shill who nodded off during the pension briefing might be) or you're locked in "spin mode".

"Mad rush" ?

No.

"Significant retirements", especially considering tsummer schedule, staffing issues and those actually turning 65 ?

Yes.

BTW, why do you think Lane granted only 1 week for futher negotiations and not 2 ?

Is one reason perhaps because AMR is hoping for an APA supported TA by the middle of next week that might calm more who are on the fence from bailing 7/1 ?

I do. ;)

They may still have a day or two to decide not to pull the ripcord. The 767/777 schedule could be a real mess in July/August if a lot bail from those seats by all those combined factors and any imposed 1113 benefits take time to kick in. A bat to the head of 767/777 crews won't be that productive, if you ask me.

Tomahawk58
06-21-2012, 03:30 PM
58 left 6/1, all of them early retirements and that's a lot (that would be 700/year in one where only a handful turn 65). The estimate a few weeks ago for 7/1 was 100-200. I thought it would be closer to 100. Recently a source who has been consistantly accurate forcasted that downward to just under 100 (still approaching double that of June). The primary reason for this is the look back lock-in provisions for the B-fund and taking advantage of the 90-day March value which was the peak (April being slightly lower).

However, a forced 1113 will likely raise that to the 120-150 range due to exhaustion, disgust and uncertainty for more senior. Your claims COMPLETELY leave out the truth, which tell me either you're clueless about this issue and its associated factors (as a paid shill who nodded off during the pension briefing might be) or you're locked in "spin mode".

"Mad rush" ?

No.

"Significant retirements", especially considering tsummer schedule, staffing issues and those actually turning 65 ?

Yes.

BTW, why do you think Lane granted only 1 week for futher negotiations and not 2 ?

Is one reason perhaps because AMR is hoping for an APA supported TA by the middle of next week that might calm more who are on the fence from bailing 7/1 ?

I do. ;)

They may still have a day or two to decide not to pull the ripcord. The 767/777 schedule could be a real mess in July/August if a lot bail from those seats by all those combined factors and any imposed 1113 benefits take time to kick in. A bat to the head of 767/777 crews won't be that productive, if you ask me.

No shortage of conspiracy thinking here. I believe it was actually a mutually agreed to decision with AA, the APA leadership and Judge Lane.

Thinking is a choice! You tend toward the negative and I lean toward the positive. Both are needed at times. The trick, I'm sure you'll agree, is getting the balance right.

Best :)

eaglefly
06-21-2012, 04:02 PM
No shortage of conspiracy thinking here. I believe it was actually a mutually agreed to decision with AA, the APA leadership and Judge Lane.

Thinking is a choice! You tend toward the negative and I lean toward the positive. Both are needed at times. The trick, I'm sure you'll agree, is getting the balance right.

Best :)

I'm considering one motive, not overall actions. Yes, I do love your positive thoughts on organized labor, the APA and U/Parker.

A warm and fuzzy kitten, you are !

swaayze
06-23-2012, 06:57 AM
I don't know where you guys come up with this stuff!

Look the A-fund will be frozen versus terminated. Why would anyone rush to the exit?

Feds offer AMR relief on pilots' pension standoff - Businessweek (http://www.businessweek.com/ap/2012-06-21/feds-offer-amr-relief-on-pilots-pension-standoff)

Maybe you're right, as my thoughts were based only on initial impulse after scanning the article quickly, but I'd bet there are many who thought about going out in Nov who'd like a do-over and don't intend to miss a better deal again. Fool me once.....

Edit: Ah I see what I forgot, no lump sum available right now anyway. I still think some on the fence will "just be done with it" and pull the plug if/when negative details come to light.

Ball Breaker
06-23-2012, 09:00 AM
I'm sure guys will stick around to see what's available (equity $$) upon emergence. Once the $$ is in the bank, they'll bail due to the $hitty contract.

AceOnTheRiver
06-28-2012, 12:25 PM
I'm sure guys will stick around to see what's available (equity $$) upon emergence. Once the $$ is in the bank, they'll bail due to the $hitty contract.

Sure that makes a lot of sense. Hang around and loose the look back while the market is down. That would cost a bunch of guys a lot of dough.