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JonnyKnoxville
07-02-2012, 08:12 AM
I just ran some quick numbers, so correct me if errors are found.

12 - Year Captain (737-800 or A-320, whichever fleet number is greater)

Delta $210 (New contract)
Continental $150 (Current contract)
United $137 (Current contract)
America West $138 (Current contract)
US Airways $125 (Current contract)

Total = $760 / 5 = $152

American $174.46 (New contract) resets to $152 or a 13% paycut.

That paycut then is applied across all categories of hourly pay.

I would, however, assume that United and Continental will have a new contract that would diminish the paycut. With that said, even if United matches Delta 737-800 12-year Captain pay, it would still result in a small paycut across the board for AA.


lolwut
07-02-2012, 08:21 AM
I have to plead ignorance on this one. Did AA have that as the calculation for their pay in their new TA? If you're just making a hypothetical calculation... I would argue that Southwest, Alaska, and jetBlue should also be included, as well as FedEx and UPS.

Additionally, there is potential for CO/UA and HP/US to have new contracts by the end of 2015, hopefully with significant pay raises.

JonnyKnoxville
07-02-2012, 08:28 AM
I have to plead ignorance on this one. Did AA have that as the calculation for their pay in their new TA? If you're just making a hypothetical calculation... I would argue that Southwest, Alaska, and jetBlue should also be included, as well as FedEx and UPS.

Additionally, there is potential for CO/UA and HP/US to have new contracts by the end of 2015, hopefully with significant pay raises.

AMR made this part of their "Last, Best and Final Offer to the Allied Pilots Association".

As the APA has explained, this agreement would limit their down-side risk exposure. I would tend to agree. At least AMR could not void their current contract through bankruptcy and it still leaves the door open for a US Airways, AMR tie-up which I think would be a better contract and most certainly, a stronger company.


80drvr
07-02-2012, 08:53 AM
I just ran some quick numbers, so correct me if errors are found.

12 - Year Captain (737-800 or A-320, whichever fleet number is greater)

Delta $210 (New contract)
Continental $150 (Current contract)
United $137 (Current contract)
America West $138 (Current contract)
US Airways $125 (Current contract)

Total = $760 / 5 = $152

American $174.46 (New contract) resets to $152 or a 13% paycut.

That paycut then is applied across all categories of hourly pay.

I would, however, assume that United and Continental will have a new contract that would diminish the paycut. With that said, even if United matches Delta 737-800 12-year Captain pay, it would still result in a small paycut across the board for AA.

It's the greater of 2% or the industry avg adjustment at dos + 36.

JonnyKnoxville
07-02-2012, 09:13 AM
It's the greater of 2% or the industry avg adjustment at dos + 36.

That was a major oversight on my part. Thanks for pointing that out.

eaglefly
07-02-2012, 10:12 AM
.......At least AMR could not void their current contract through bankruptcy.......

Not necessarily true. AMR CAN do this if, "there is a material deterioration in the company's financial condition or financial PROSPECTS, whether because of general economic conditions or OTHERWISE." This is a subjective standard determined SOLELY by the debtors (AMR). APA has no rights other then to object. AMR has stated they don't anticipate profits for several years, so any time during the remainder of the C11 period they can go back if they deem the competitive landscape less then desirable, AKA their "financial prospects".

Many of the so-called "improvements" in the TA have a "wiggle exit" for AMR, due to either ambiguous language or flat-out statements like the above.

Caveat Emptor.

JonnyKnoxville
07-02-2012, 10:34 AM
It should be no surprise that it is not a good contract. I can not think of any aviation labor group in recent history who has come out of bankruptcy with a status quo contract or made contractual gains. This situation is no different.

My feeling is that US Airways is your best option. If AMR manages to fight them off, you guys will have to live under this horrible contract, or worse, no contract at all.

If US Airways is successful, the NEW American will be stronger, more stable, and provide for more economic gains for the pilot group in the future.

I do not envy the postiion that the American pilot group is in and the tough choices that must be made.

Good Luck!

cactiboss
07-02-2012, 11:40 AM
America west is at $144

JonnyKnoxville
07-02-2012, 11:55 AM
America west is at $144



The 12-year Captain rate on the 737 / A-320 for America West is $138 according to this:

Airline Pilot Central - US Airways | Legacy (http://www.airlinepilotcentral.com/airlines/legacy/us_airways.html)

Maybe you need to make an update.

cactiboss
07-02-2012, 02:06 PM
The 12-year Captain rate on the 737 / A-320 for America West is $138 according to this:

Airline Pilot Central - US Airways | Legacy (http://www.airlinepilotcentral.com/airlines/legacy/us_airways.html)

Maybe you need to make an update.

That's wrong, $144 is correct

cactiboss
07-02-2012, 04:57 PM
Oh I see where you got $138, that was the original pay but we got a raise when the contract became amendable in 2006. Still stuck on that deal thanks to our east brothers.

Seaslap8
07-02-2012, 07:20 PM
My feeling is that US Airways is your best option. If AMR manages to fight them off, you guys will have to live under this horrible contract, or worse, no contract at all.


Good Luck!

I second that good luck....hate to say it, but if USAir is their best option, there is a lot more to worry about than a horrible contract. A contract has an expiration date, a marriage like that is forever....btw, not sure what time frame you were looking for but the DL 737-800 end rate (2015) I think is around $216...

JonnyKnoxville
07-02-2012, 08:15 PM
I second that good luck....hate to say it, but if USAir is their best option, there is a lot more to worry about than a horrible contract. A contract has an expiration date, a marriage like that is forever....btw, not sure what time frame you were looking for but the DL 737-800 end rate (2015) I think is around $216...

At a second glance, your right...my bad. Almost $217 an hour. Not too shabby.

Slammer
07-03-2012, 12:08 PM
I just ran some quick numbers, so correct me if errors are found.

12 - Year Captain (737-800 or A-320, whichever fleet number is greater)

Delta $210 (New contract)
Continental $150 (Current contract)
United $137 (Current contract)
America West $138 (Current contract)
US Airways $125 (Current contract)

Total = $760 / 5 = $152

American $174.46 (New contract) resets to $152 or a 13% paycut.

That paycut then is applied across all categories of hourly pay.

I would, however, assume that United and Continental will have a new contract that would diminish the paycut. With that said, even if United matches Delta 737-800 12-year Captain pay, it would still result in a small paycut across the board for AA.

FWIW...S-CAL 737 rates (NG)- 170.00 737-500 - 150.00 ( only 24 left, set to retire by EOY) and be replaced with NG

Columbia
07-03-2012, 06:50 PM
With the new PWA, DAL 737 12year CA is $188 not $204.

JonnyKnoxville
07-04-2012, 02:25 AM
FWIW...S-CAL 737 rates (NG)- 170.00 737-500 - 150.00 ( only 24 left, set to retire by EOY) and be replaced with NG

Looks like an APC update is needed.

JonnyKnoxville
07-04-2012, 02:26 AM
With the new PWA, DAL 737 12year CA is $188 not $204.

Alright...so what is it in 36 months?

JonnyKnoxville
07-04-2012, 02:33 AM
I just ran some quick numbers, so correct me if errors are found.

12 - Year Captain (737-800 or A-320, whichever fleet number is greater)

Delta $217 (New contract)
Continental $170 (Current contract)
United $137 (Current contract)
America West $144 (Current contract)
US Airways $125 (Current contract)

Total = $793 / 5 = $158 AVERAGE

American DOS + 36 months = $174.46 (New contract)

This average is still below where American will be at that time. Which, as I have discovered in this thread, will not trigger a paycut but it will result in a 2% payraise instead.

shiznit
07-04-2012, 07:21 AM
Updated to show a possible scenario.

12 - Year Captain (737-800 or A-320, whichever fleet number is greater)

Delta $217 (New contract)
United $223 (a pattern up of 3% over DAL, hopefully more!)
America West $144 (Current contract)
US Airways $125 (Current contract)

Total = $ 709 / 4 = $177 AVERAGE

American DOS + 36 months = $174.46 (New contract)

Here's to hoping that UCAL can ladder up the industry before 2016! I have to be honest, I don't see LCC fixing their issues ever without a merger. Thanks for NOTHING USAPA!

The more challenging part is the horrible band of the 319/737-700!!!

I think that is essentially AMR shoving a 3 year B-scale down your throat. I would hope that the "Industry Comparable Rate" would be the 320/737-800 rate like the rest of the comparable industry uses!

cactiboss
07-04-2012, 09:33 AM
You guys are missing the point of this contract, it's a temporary necessity to keep your claim alive and it gives 13.5% of the company. This deal is not designed to do anything else than to get amr ready for the merger.

JonnyKnoxville
07-04-2012, 09:38 AM
You guys are missing the point of this contract, it's a temporary necessity to keep your claim alive and it gives 13.5% of the company. This deal is not designed to do anything else than to get amr ready for the merger.

Designed by AMR to do a deal? Do you think AMR is just posturing in the media to get better terms on a US Airways deal?

For the American pilots and the industry as a whole, I hope you are right.

shiznit
07-04-2012, 09:45 AM
Designed by AMR to do a deal? Do you think AMR is just posturing in the media to get better terms on a US Airways deal?

For the American pilots and the industry as a whole, I hope you are right.

The CLA with DUI Dougie is for a 6 year deal also though, right?

That is the dangerous part, IMHO. Long term deals are bad ju-ju.

eaglefly
07-04-2012, 09:55 AM
You guys are missing the point of this contract, it's a temporary necessity to keep your claim alive and it gives 13.5% of the company. This deal is not designed to do anything else than to get amr ready for the merger.

These are assumptions.

First of all, the ratification of this TA arguably makes it MORE likely that AMR will remain in control and exit chapter 11 with their POR intact by giving them labor stability and thus calming the UCC. On the other hand, the best interests of the pilots is for a merger while still IN chapter 11 with Parker's POR. It's also the best bet to get a better deal down the road for all.

The 13.5% settlement claim can (and will) be watered down by multiple methods until it is paid, which will be after exiting bankruptcy. One of those methods will be current AMR management "skimming" it for bonuses or additional stock. The assumption is that rejecting the final offer will automatically remove the pilots from the UCC and this is not certain. Likewise, it's also not certain that exiting chapter 11 without a consensual deal will nullify the 13.5% settlement claim. The likely fact is, that any merger with U will be spearheaded by the non-union members of the UCC and/or the debtor and 3rd party with the unions having as little influence then as they have had so far.

So far, labor's participation on the UCC has not meant squat in moving the other necessary UCC members toward the merge. Thus, placing these two issues as of more importance then sinking the bottom half of the AA seniority list for eternity is misguided IMO.

Still voting NO.

eaglefly
07-04-2012, 09:57 AM
The CLA with DUI Dougie is for a 6 year deal also though, right?

That is the dangerous part, IMHO. Long term deals are bad ju-ju.

If the merge occurs under AMR control after exiting chapter 11, the U deal will look great to the U guys as opposed to being brought in under this TA. :eek:

Flyby1206
07-04-2012, 10:01 AM
I thought this was a good read, and answered a lot of questions I had about the process:

“Unknown Unknowns”

Based on the large number of SoundOff messages the APA leadership has received in recent days, it’s evident that our members have a variety of questions about the tentative agreement, the impact of“yes” vote on a potential American Airlines-US Airways merger, what happens in the event of a “no” vote, and other issues associated with the TA.

One common thread that has emerged from members’ messages: there is some resistance to the use of terms such as “could,” “might,” “likely” and other qualifiers by APA’s subject-matter experts. Many of you have expressed skepticism about this sort of noncommittal verbiage and have asked why the attorneys and other advisers representing our interests have been qualifying their statements in this manner. The fact is, we really don’t know what may happen in the event of a “no” vote. The legal process we are subject to in Chapter 11 restructuring doesn’t lend itself to predictability, and no pilot union has ever opted for potential contract abrogation versus ratifying a deal on the table. As former Secretary of Defense Donald Rumsfeld famously stated, “There are known knowns… There are known unknowns… But there are also unknown unknowns—there are things we do not know, we don’t know.”

The situation we find ourselves in contains a large number of unknowns, including those of the “unknown unknowns” variety. If our members vote to ratify the TA, we’ll never know for certain how the judge would have ruled in our case. (That noted, attorneys for APA, APFA and TWU employed similar legal theories in the bankruptcy hearing, so the rulings would likely be consistent for all three.) Conversely, if our members vote against ratification and the judge proceeds to rule in management’s favor, we won’t be able to predict how management will choose to proceed.

In an effort to shed some light on issues associated with the TA, the following questions and answers represent the beginning of a new series of Q&As specifically pertaining to the TA and potential contract abrogation that we’ll be publishing in the coming days in response to messages we’re receiving from members at large. We encourage you to continue sending the APA leadership your questions and views via SoundOff. By doing so, you’ll enable us to continue providing new Q&As that address your information needs. We will post TA Q&As in the “Rumor Control” section of alliedpilots.org and also in the “Tentative Agreement” section, both accessible via the members’ home page.

Q(1): If we vote no on the TA, I’ve heard that after the judge abrogates our contract, he will tell management that the “Last, best final offer” will supersede the original 1113 term sheet for future contract negotiations.

A: The judge doesn’t actually abrogate our current contract. Instead, if he were to rule in favor of management’s motion, he would be granting AMR management the legal authority to reject our collective bargaining agreement.Management would then decide what terms to implement, and they would probably implement their April 19 1113(c) term sheet. The terms of the “last, best final offer,” (LBFO) which represent a significant improvement over the term sheet, will not be taken into consideration by the court. Management’s LBFO is technically a section 408 “settlement offer” and separate from the 1113 process. The judge will not direct management as far as what specific changes to make to our current wages and working conditions once the contract is abrogated. That would be at management’s discretion.

Q(2): If we just vote no on the TA and take our chances with an abrogated contract, we should be able to get a shorter-term deal than the six-year deal duration in the TA, right?

A: In a post-abrogation scenario, management doesn’t create a new contract, they simply impose terms unilaterally. The “duration” of those terms would be until management decides to agree to a new contract with APA. Management would be free to impose pay, work rules and benefits that serve their needs. Once they have imposed below-market labor rates, it is unlikely that management would make significant improvements in pay and work rules that would increase their costs. They will have established a de-facto contract that solves their “cost” problem without having to bother with the collective bargaining process. In that environment, given the current state of the Railway Labor Act, it could be years before we could reach an agreement with management on another TA.

Q(3): Doesn’t management need a contract in place in order to get exit financing?

A: There is no statutory or administrative requirement in the bankruptcy process that states that management must have a contract in place in order to exit bankruptcy. AMR’s cash position has actually improved since their Nov. 29 filing and currently stands at more than $5 billion.As such, there is no need to obtain exit financing as most other carriers had to due to their poor cash position.

Q(4): If we vote yes on the TA, doesn’t that just empower the current management team and lessen the chances for a merger with US Airways?

A: Our advisers and experts have told us that the Unsecured Creditors’ Committee is focused on a resolution to the labor cost issue above all other issues, including merger offers. Until the issue of labor contracts has been settled, consideration given to an offer by US Airways or any other potential suitor is on the back-burner. While it may seem like reverse logic, our advisers believe that the shortest path to a merger with US Airways will be through a ratified agreement with AMR management. This will allow the focus to be shifted from the labor cost issue to the revenue and network issue, which the stand-alone plan fails to address.

Q(5): Isn’t it correct that we’ll be able to strike if our contract is abrogated or at least once we exit bankruptcy? Then we can force management to agree to an industry-leading contract on our terms.

A: In a 2007 decision by the court in Northwest’s bankruptcy, the Second Circuit made it clear that an order from the bankruptcy court authorizing a contract rejection does not in itself give the union the right to launch a strike in response to the carrier imposing new work rules and pay cuts. Upon exit from bankruptcy, with no contract in place, we will again fall under the auspices of the National Mediation Board and Railway Labor Act and begin a new round of negotiations.

Q(6): Isn’t this just a 2003 “bum’s rush” all over again? Why aren’t we following our normal requirements for a ratification vote?

A: Whatever your view of the events of 2003, the key difference is that a federal bankruptcy judge is determining our timetable in the current ratification process. Our members will be voting on the tentative agreement against the backdrop of a broader legal proceeding, which is AMR’s Chapter 11 restructuring. Federal judges have wide discretion and their direction takes precedence over our internal governance policies.

Q(7): Just a few weeks ago 7,500 AA pilots expressed “no confidence” in AMR management. How can we turn around and do a deal with them now?

A: A “yes” vote doesn’t represent an endorsement of AMR management or their stand-alone plan. Instead, a “yes” vote secures better terms of employment versus what we would end up with in a contract abrogation scenario. Despite what some may claim, the two choices we currently face are 1) the TA or 2) the unknowns associated with contract abrogation. The only certainty about contract abrogation is that we would be facing considerable uncertainty with respect to our terms of employment.

aquagreen73s
07-04-2012, 10:19 AM
eaglefly,

Can you enumerate what the top half of the seniority list gets out of Horton's TA? What's the selling point(s) over Parker's CLA?

eaglefly
07-04-2012, 10:36 AM
I thought this was a good read, and answered a lot of questions I had about the process:

My advice would be to take what you read with some healthy sketicism. First of all, it must be noted that the APA is REQUIRED by the TA to reccommend membership ratification of the TA, thus they will attempt to "sell" this to the pilots. This "Q & A" is a perfect example of that, if you ask me. It is loaded up itself with truths, untruths and contridictions. For example;

- "we really don't know what may happen in a "no" vote".

Probably the most truthful statement in this little ditty.

- "no pilot union has ever opted for potential contract abrogation vs. ratifying a deal on the table".

Untrue. Hawaiian Airlines pilots did.

- "probably implement the April 19 1113(c) term sheet".

In contridiction to their statement "they really don't know what will happen in a "no" vote", but an indication of bias slanting of the situation to produce the result they are contractually required to do.

- "once they have imposed below-market rates, it is unlikely that management would make significant improvements in pay and work rules that would increase their costs".

Again, implying certainty when none is there in the hope of influencing the vote in the direction they are contractually required to do. The fact is, no airline would likely operate in a satisfactory manner with that type of insability.

- "it could be years before we reach an agreement with management on another TA".

Then no merger could be expected to be completed and most likely their POR would collapse prior to the end of exclusivity. Again though, if one really wanted to instill fear so as to herd pilots into voting a particular way (yes), then this is a great "sales" statement.

- "our advisors and experts have told us that the Unsecured Creditors Committee is focused on a resolution to the labor cost issues above all the others, including merger efforts".

That being the apparent case, then having no collective bargaing agreement in place and only a highly volitile work order in effect would make any further movement of any kind unlikely. This statement contridicts the assumption that AMR would just go on in perpituity making business decisions for "years" as in the above and somehow would convince the creditors, court and investors that that environment would be suitably stable for a strong and viable competitor.

I don't know how you read this "Q & A", but I see things that make little sense and contridict each other and the likely facts of the chapter 11 process. As a result and the fact the APA must now become defacto salesmen for this bag of goods, leads me to place little credibilty in this communique and in fact, the motivations and trustworthiness of many of the APA reps.

You're free to draw your own conclusions, of course.

cactiboss
07-04-2012, 10:39 AM
These are assumptions.

First of all, the ratification of this TA arguably makes it MORE likely that AMR will remain in control and exit chapter 11 with their POR intact by giving them labor stability and thus calming the UCC. On the other hand, the best interests of the pilots is for a merger while still IN chapter 11 with Parker's POR. It's also the best bet to get a better deal down the road for all.

The 13.5% settlement claim can (and will) be watered down by multiple methods until it is paid, which will be after exiting bankruptcy. One of those methods will be current AMR management "skimming" it for bonuses or additional stock. The assumption is that rejecting the final offer will automatically remove the pilots from the UCC and this is not certain. Likewise, it's also not certain that exiting chapter 11 without a consensual deal will nullify the 13.5% settlement claim. The likely fact is, that any merger with U will be spearheaded by the non-union members of the UCC and/or the debtor and 3rd party with the unions having as little influence then as they have had so far.

So far, labor's participation on the UCC has not meant squat in moving the other necessary UCC members toward the merge. Thus, placing these two issues as of more importance then sinking the bottom half of the AA seniority list for eternity is misguided IMO.

Still voting NO.I don't think you are looking at this logically. AMR's plan didn't work with your gutted contract, you think it will work better with less concessions i.e more expensive labor? After this deal labor will be much more expensive than Horton had planned on, making the usair offer even more attractive. Don't get me wrong the 6 year term is bull and I hope the apa get's enough leverage to change that provision.

P.S. we haven't seen Parkers official offer yet butI guarantee you it will blow away Horton's plan by a wide margin

eaglefly
07-04-2012, 10:43 AM
eaglefly,

Can you enumerate what the top half of the seniority list gets out of Horton's TA? What's the selling point(s) over Parker's CLA?

Many of the very senior are just looking the milk out the next 5 years or so. Most of those above the 3000 seniority range will not be flying A319's for regional pay and working conditions, none will be furloughed and all will likely remain captains. Below that, most will likely either end up back to F/O, imprisoned at the Group I and II regional world or outright jobless as several hundred E-jets take over a large portion of the remaining domestic divison of AA as AA begins its big galcier melt under the global warming of One World.

The selling point for those at the top is avoidance of the unknown. The known they can handle as for them, it's not quite as painful. The majority of their pain has already been realized with the pension issue and that will change little whether this TA floats, the U TA bobs to the surface or there is or is not a merger.

The bottom half will be dog-paddling in shark infested waters for perhaps a decade.

eaglefly
07-04-2012, 11:04 AM
I don't think you are looking at this logically. AMR's plan didn't work with your gutted contract, you think it will work better with less concessions i.e more expensive labor? After this deal labor will be much more expensive than Horton had planned on, making the usair offer even more attractive. Don't get me wrong the 6 year term is bull and I hope the apa get's enough leverage to change that provision.

I think you've been suckered in by the best and seem to be taking a lot of line (Quint would be yelling at me to pour water on the reel). AMR is NOT in bankruptcy NOW because of neccesity, but by CHOICE and for one reason only; to GUT labor (and not just to competitive lavels, but the lowest in the industry). All of us are aware our old "gutted" contract was no longer competitive, but what the TA offers is threat of death at any time in the future to the junior half. What YOU don't understand (and it's not your fault), is this TA is littered with so much ambiguous language, many provisons mean little, aside from the virtual blank check on outsourcing abilities via code-sharing and "commuter flying" (79-seat Etops capable airliners).

P.S. we haven't seen Parkers official offer yet butI guarantee you it will blow away Horton's plan by a wide margin

Parkers plan won't matter as he'll never get to present it. If the TA is ratified, AMR will maintain control throughout the process and exit stand-alone. THEN, if there is a U merger, it will be a deal between Horton and Parker for THEIR mutual benefit, not mine or yours. IF it's in their best interests, you'll be working under this TA too........well, those of you still employed.

Do you have a no-furlough clause ?

They can whack 10% of us the minute they exit and Horton and Parker make an announcement. Partial mergers/fragmentation ?

Well, let's not go there......too scary. How about if Horton passes up U (or some of it) and goes toward Jet Blue ?

What's that do for you and the USAPA follies in perpituity ?

No, I think the best bet for PILOTS (ALL affected pilots) is Parker getting his foot in the door while AA is still in chapter 11 and us under the U/APA CLA (unfortunately, I think it's already a done deal between them and it will be palatable to both once AA exits stand-alone). Us on the other hand..........well, if the TA is ratified, it will be bad for all. :cool:

cactiboss
07-04-2012, 12:15 PM
I think you've been suckered in by the best and seem to be taking a lot of line (Quint would be yelling at me to pour water on the reel). AMR is NOT in bankruptcy NOW because of neccesity, but by CHOICE and for one reason only; to GUT labor (and not just to competitive lavels, but the lowest in the industry). All of us are aware our old "gutted" contract was no longer competitive, but what the TA offers is threat of death at any time in the future to the junior half. What YOU don't understand (and it's not your fault), is this TA is littered with so much ambiguous language, many provisons mean little, aside from the virtual blank check on outsourcing abilities via code-sharing and "commuter flying" (79-seat Etops capable airliners).



Parkers plan won't matter as he'll never get to present it. If the TA is ratified, AMR will maintain control throughout the process and exit stand-alone. THEN, if there is a U merger, it will be a deal between Horton and Parker for THEIR mutual benefit, not mine or yours. IF it's in their best interests, you'll be working under this TA too........well, those of you still employed.

Do you have a no-furlough clause ?

They can whack 10% of us the minute they exit and Horton and Parker make an announcement. Partial mergers/fragmentation ?

Well, let's not go there......too scary. How about if Horton passes up U (or some of it) and goes toward Jet Blue ?

What's that do for you and the USAPA follies in perpituity ?

No, I think the best bet for PILOTS (ALL affected pilots) is Parker getting his foot in the door while AA is still in chapter 11 and us under the U/APA CLA (unfortunately, I think it's already a done deal between them and it will be palatable to both once AA exits stand-alone). Us on the other hand..........well, if the TA is ratified, it will be bad for all. :cool:
I am going to have to strongly disagree with you. You seem to forget that you "are" in bankruptcy, regardless of why it was done you are in it now and have no illusions that an amr imposed contract will be better than this deal you are voting on. As far as the merger, well I just don't see what makes you so sure that this deal makes usair irrelevant since every expert says it will make it more likely that the merger happens. Common sense says Horton's bad plan is even worse with higher labor costs.

eaglefly
07-04-2012, 12:42 PM
I am going to have to strongly disagree with you. You seem to forget that you "are" in bankruptcy, regardless of why it was done you are in it now and have no illusions that an amr imposed contract will be better than this deal you are voting on. As far as the merger, well I just don't see what makes you so sure that this deal makes usair irrelevant since every expert says it will make it more likely that the merger happens. Common sense says Horton's bad plan is even worse with higher labor costs.

Forgotten we are in Bankruptcy ?

LOL ! One would have to be living on Venus for that to happen. Look cacti, it's obvious to me your primary concern is maximizing the chances of this merger to free yourself from USAPA, but that's not what's driving most of us at AA. Odd that Horton's "bad plan" would be worse with this TA and then would supposedly improve the chances of alienating the UCC. If that were true, why would the other UCC members be supporting both the ratification of this TA concurrently with supporting Horton ?

That hypothisis is illogical IMO.

Many here believe this TA will do far more good for Horton and his team, then it will hurt. Why do you think they agreed to it and want it so bad ?

I'm afraid merging with you isn't the goal of most AA pilots, it's just the least objectionable option. The FIRST priority is ensure we don't live to regret it and long-term existence under this TA isn't going down well with the majority I've spoken to. It didn't even go down well with almost half the BOD. I'm afraid you'll just have to watch from afar while AA pilots determine what AA pilots are and are not willing to do, FOR the interests of AA pilots instead of maximizing the desires of others. The fact is, we will have little chance of influencing what POR becomes reality inside bankruptcy. There are 9 creditors on the UCC and approval requires a 2/3 majority from what I understand. That means the pilots are 1 of 9 or even if the mechanics and F/A's get their CBA's abrogated, that's still 1 in 7. Any way you look at it, we're likely just observers anyway. The only thing we CAN control is ourselves.

I understand if you disagree.

JonnyKnoxville
07-04-2012, 07:03 PM
Passing this TA versus voting it down baffles me. Normally, I can sift through the information and make a logical decision. Not this time. I feel like a passed TA is just as bad as one that does not pass.

I do firmly believe that the US Airways deal in bankruptcy is clearly the best route for all pilot groups involved. I just don't know what effect this TA will truly have on that potential end result.

As I stated in the past, I am relieved that this is not my decision to make. Good luck guys.

aa73
07-05-2012, 04:06 AM
Voting NO!!

"My personal decision is that I will not let the legal system force my assent to a contract that is anything BUT consensual." <---- BEST quote ever from one of our own.

We have a gun pointed at us to sign one of the most concessionary contracts ever. 10+ years under AMR's thumb. Massive Scope concessions. Massive domestic code share. Ambiguous contract language. I could go on and on. For what, a possible deal with USAirways (that might fall through), 13.5% of the company and keeping our place on the UCC? and even THAT is ambiguously written!!

Fuhggedaboudit! Taking my chances with the judge. I could not even BEGIN to look myself in the mirror voting yes to this turd!

<Rant off>
73

tsquare
07-05-2012, 05:10 AM
Voting NO!!

"My personal decision is that I will not let the legal system force my assent to a contract that is anything BUT consensual." <---- BEST quote ever from one of our own.

We have a gun pointed at us to sign one of the most concessionary contracts ever. 10+ years under AMR's thumb. Massive Scope concessions. Massive domestic code share. Ambiguous contract language. I could go on and on. For what, a possible deal with USAirways (that might fall through), 13.5% of the company and keeping our place on the UCC? and even THAT is ambiguously written!!

Fuhggedaboudit! Taking my chances with the judge. I could not even BEGIN to look myself in the mirror voting yes to this turd!

<Rant off>
73

You gotta do what you gotta do.. but turning down anything in BK will not better your case. The judge is gonna allow the company to do what it needs to survive. Sucks, but it is the truth... been there done that

eaglefly
07-05-2012, 06:10 AM
You gotta do what you gotta do.. but turning down anything in BK will not better your case. The judge is gonna allow the company to do what it needs to survive. Sucks, but it is the truth... been there done that

Most realize that. In fact, many believe that it will definately get worse. The point is there will be no duration for an imposed work order, so the ability to live to fight another day (negotiate) remains. Another term for that is "hope" and hope is a good thing, maybe the best of things (Shawshank Redemption). Ratification of the TA is certain death and not a quick one either.

Most likely in reality, if AMR elects to then turn AA into a torture chamber for pilots, attrition will increase above desired rates and levels and this airline will become operationally and competitively crippled. How bad will they make it and for how long before certain parties become reasonable ?

Those are the $60,000 questions.

I consider myself a human being (although some here would disagree ;)) and see this TA with this language and provisions forced upon me in this way to be at odds with my own self-respect. I see it as literally selling my self worth out for nothing like it has no value. I simply can't do that, regardless of the consequences. The school bully would never force me to give up my lunch money no matter how painfully he twisted my arm and likewise, I wouldn't make a deal with the devil for my soul either. I guess there comes a time in most peoples lives when circumstances in this world force you to make that choice and once you make that choice in a certain direction, there's no going back. Rationalization and denial then become your friends for the remainder of your days to get by.

I, like most, understand the competitve situation for the future AA and am willing to bend over backward to compromise to assist in achieving that goal, but this isn't about compromise, it's about capitulation.........complete and total capitulation.

That I cannot and will not do.........at least willingly.

aa73
07-05-2012, 06:31 AM
BINGO Eaglefly!

TSquare, if I have to choose between voting yes to career suicide vs taking my chances with the judge, suffering for a year or two (if AA even survives the labor chaos) and getting a chance to renegotiate under the RLA once we exit, the choice is easy.

There is no respect associated with a Yes vote.

A No vote means I am willing to fight.

'Nuff said!

GW258
07-05-2012, 07:59 AM
Really tough choice for you AA folks. A judge who's duty is not for your wellfare but the creditors vs an airline management team who always has and will do all it can to further it's attack on the professional pilot.

Be carefull with Parker, he is no friend of a pilot, promotes the division in his company and there is a group in the pilot ranks at Airways that would never take a stand against Parker in a contract dispute, there is a history there.

Best of luck to you folks.

johnso29
07-05-2012, 08:22 AM
With the new PWA, DAL 737 12year CA is $188 not $204.

I think they're looking at the rates in 36 months. Not today's. That rate is just shy of $217 per hour.

cactiboss
07-05-2012, 11:55 AM
I understand if you disagree.
I do. Look this merger is going to happen, please don't think I want to influence your vote either way based on my desire to merge, I just happen to agree with your leaderships position. 13.5% can yield a lot of leverage for you guys.

lakehouse
07-05-2012, 01:22 PM
I do. Look this merger is going to happen, please don't think I want to influence your vote either way based on my desire to merge, I just happen to agree with your leaderships position. 13.5% can yield a lot of leverage for you guys.

I am not trolling, but what does that 13.5% really get, I know United got something like this in CH11 and I was told in the end it was nothing more than something that could be cashed in for about 80k.

tsquare
07-05-2012, 10:54 PM
BINGO Eaglefly!

TSquare, if I have to choose between voting yes to career suicide vs taking my chances with the judge, suffering for a year or two (if AA even survives the labor chaos) and getting a chance to renegotiate under the RLA once we exit, the choice is easy.

There is no respect associated with a Yes vote.

A No vote means I am willing to fight.

'Nuff said!

Good luck. seriously.

AA gear puller
07-06-2012, 02:43 AM
I am also a NO vote. If this thing passes it will be by the thinnest of margins. I personally think it will fail.
Regardless, I also think the LCC deal is D.O.A. There isn't enough support on the UCC to get it done. Horton will be aloud to take the ship out of BK. Then all bets are off.
No matter how you turn it around this whole thing is one doosy of a **** sandwich..

eaglefly
07-06-2012, 05:04 AM
I am not trolling, but what does that 13.5% really get, I know United got something like this in CH11 and I was told in the end it was nothing more than something that could be cashed in for about 80k.

Not going to be 13.5%. Watered down by 4 different methods. Then company gets to decide what's left is going to be cash or stock. The COMPANY decides. Prolly marginal stock that will take years to appreciate, if it does.

Divide that over at least 9 years of this agreement and it's peanuts.

cactiboss
07-06-2012, 10:10 AM
Regardless, I also think the LCC deal is D.O.A. There isn't enough support on the UCC to get it done.
What makes you think this is the case? I haven't seen any evidence that this is the case.

eaglefly
07-06-2012, 11:45 AM
What makes you think this is the case? I haven't seen any evidence that this is the case.

Parker's already all but admitted they'll do the deal after AA exits, so little point in APA having any influence in anything during BK. Horton and Parker will do the deal between them outside C11, when other parties don't have a judge or creditors to woo or drive up the price/cost.

Don't panic just yet cacti, your merger desires in the hope of driving a stake through the heart of USAPA are still very much the likelihood. The Airbus contract you may have to work under for the next decade may be horrifying though.

lolwut
07-06-2012, 01:24 PM
So whats the latest timeframe on an expected announcement of a merger, if it is going to happen? This summer? By the end of the year? 1-2 years away?

AA gear puller
07-06-2012, 02:19 PM
Just my opinion but I dissagree that Horton will persue a merger with LCC post BK. I think AA will merge but the first likely candidate is B6. It's an open secret that AA wants JetBlue and has been opined by both Horton and Hale in informal conversations at the puzzle palace.
As I have stated before AA has 5+billion dollars in cash and does not want to be baught. BK precedent strongly favors the desires of the debtor. AA has the support of every UCC member save the unions. If AA reaches agreement with APA then the PBGC claim becomes irrelevent. As Mr. Spock would say: "Simple logic will suffice".
The outcome of this is fairly self evident.

cactiboss
07-06-2012, 10:58 PM
Parker's already all but admitted they'll do the deal after AA exits, so little point in APA having any influence in anything during BK. Horton and Parker will do the deal between them outside C11, when other parties don't have a judge or creditors to woo or drive up the price/cost.

Don't panic just yet cacti, your merger desires in the hope of driving a stake through the heart of USAPA are still very much the likelihood. The Airbus contract you may have to work under for the next decade may be horrifying though.

When has Parker admitted that? Parker has always said the merger can only work while in bk. I have spoken to some of the highest placed execs and they seem to think very differently than you.

eaglefly
07-06-2012, 11:59 PM
When has Parker admitted that? Parker has always said the merger can only work while in bk. I have spoken to some of the highest placed execs and they seem to think very differently than you.

Sorry, but he let it slip in a letter to the employees. In fact, he had to release another one muddying up what he said in a feeble attempt at back peddling. AA may indeed be looking at JB to expand their C/S desires to an acquisition, but a U marriage is likely after BK exit.

Parker even blew Horton a kiss when he said U was pleased with AMR's exclusivity extension. I think they are on the same page behind the scenes with U agreeing not to upset the C11 apple cart in exchange for being given the apples later. As captain Jack Sparrow repeatedly plead, "wait for the opportune moment" and not to do anything stupid before then.

cactiboss
07-07-2012, 12:10 AM
Sorry, but he let it slip in a letter to the employees. In fact, he had to release another one muddying up what he said in a feeble attempt at back peddling. AA may indeed be looking at JB to expand their C/S desires to an acquisition, but a U marriage is likely after BK exit.

Parker even blew Horton a kiss when he said U was pleased with AMR's exclusivity extension. I think they are on the same page behind the scenes with U agreeing not to upset the C11 apple cart in exchange for being given the apples later. As captain Jack Sparrow repeatedly plead, "wait for the opportune moment" and not to do anything stupid before then.
You might very well be right eagle, I guess we will see.

Gallifrey
07-07-2012, 12:28 AM
AA buys B6 then U buys AA:D

aa73
07-07-2012, 02:20 AM
Just my opinion but I dissagree that Horton will persue a merger with LCC post BK. I think AA will merge but the first likely candidate is B6. It's an open secret that AA wants JetBlue and has been opined by both Horton and Hale in informal conversations at the puzzle palace.
As I have stated before AA has 5+billion dollars in cash and does not want to be baught. BK precedent strongly favors the desires of the debtor. AA has the support of every UCC member save the unions. If AA reaches agreement with APA then the PBGC claim becomes irrelevent. As Mr. Spock would say: "Simple logic will suffice".
The outcome of this is fairly self evident.

Agree 100% with the Jetblue deal.

Delta wants JB badly but the DOT would not approve due to the NYC monopoly DL would have. AA is currently a weak #3 in NY today - we would become a strong #3 in NYC with a JB deal, exactly where we want to be (we would still be behind DL and UA.)

However, I do believe that the USAir deal will happen, along with the JB deal - I have always maintained AA will do some kind of a 3-way deal at the same time.

tsquare
07-07-2012, 07:37 AM
deleted.............

tsquare
07-07-2012, 07:42 AM
Agree 100% with the Jetblue deal.

Delta wants JB badly but the DOT would not approve due to the NYC monopoly DL would have. AA is currently a weak #3 in NY today - we would become a strong #3 in NYC with a JB deal, exactly where we want to be (we would still be behind DL and UA.)

However, I do believe that the USAir deal will happen, along with the JB deal - I have always maintained AA will do some kind of a 3-way deal at the same time.

What makes you think that DAL wants JB? Not necessarily saying we don't, but you seem fairly certain of that as being pressing. There are other holes in our network that are way more important than that those JB would fill.

aa73
07-07-2012, 02:46 PM
DL wants to OWN New York, and eliminate the low-fare competition, while plugging the hole in the Caribbean that's missing from the DL route map. Getting JB would make DL the undisputed king of NY, leaping WAY past UAL.

This of course is just my opinion, and I would not be surprised to see DL put up a big fight in blocking AA from getting JB.

Flyby1206
07-07-2012, 03:06 PM
DL wants to OWN New York, and eliminate the low-fare competition, while plugging the hole in the Caribbean that's missing from the DL route map. Getting JB would make DL the undisputed king of NY, leaping WAY past UAL.

This of course is just my opinion, and I would not be surprised to see DL put up a big fight in blocking AA from getting JB.

CAL/UAL by far dominate the NYC region. They control just over 70% of the passenger traffic through EWR. When you take the total traffic numbers for the entire NYC region (EWR/LGA/JFK/SWF) the totals look like this:

(2011 data)
CAL/UAL 25.8%
DL 19.2%
AA 13.5%
JB 12.9%
US 5.7%

Next year DL will gain a few points from the LGA slot swap, putting them around 22% of total NYC traffic. You can add the numbers and see what would happen if DL/JB or AA/JB went through.

http://www.panynj.gov/airports/pdf-traffic/ATR2011.pdf (page 47)

Also some numbers for JFK/LGA passenger traffic

JFK
JB 23.9%
DL 23.9%
AA 17.2%

LGA
DL 29.6%
AA 20.8%
US 17.6%
JB 3.5%

Viewing NYC as a whole then DL+B6 would be 32% of total traffic, effectively eliminating AA+US to less than half the presence that the other major alliances have in the most important market in the USA. It would even put UAL drastically behind. I'm not saying AA+US wont be effective for capturing traffic in the NYC area, but they are putting all their eggs into the PHL basket. NYC will be destroyed for AA+US if/when DL+B6 happens.

My personal opinion is that there need to be three major competitiors (AA, UA, DL) in NYC with roughly equal shares of the market. AA cant afford to let DL take B6 away (nor do I think the DOT would allow that).

eaglefly
07-08-2012, 06:16 AM
DL wants to OWN New York, and eliminate the low-fare competition, while plugging the hole in the Caribbean that's missing from the DL route map. Getting JB would make DL the undisputed king of NY, leaping WAY past UAL.

This of course is just my opinion, and I would not be surprised to see DL put up a big fight in blocking AA from getting JB.

Let's not forget U has a large presence at LGA. The handshake deal between Horton and Parker post bankruptcy is likely to draw little response from others, but an overt pass at Jet Blue by AA will draw several others into a bidding war that will drive the price way up. JB may still be very much a desirable merger partner, but that may have to wait.

Can AA handle two mergers (a three-way) at once ?

Has anyone done a three-way merger at the same time ?

As to AA handling two others at once, I don't think so and they'll have to make a choice of one before the other. Should that be U (the likely first merger move) and then another goes after JB as a blocking move, if it's Delta, they'll have to relinquish some of that New York stuff to AA/U for compettive reasons. More likely, I think AA and U will announce a merger approximately 27 minutes after exiting Chapter 11 and concurrently a strong code-share deal with JB, Alaska and Hawaiian as they indicate in their TA.

Who knows........UAL could go after Jet Blue (their buses would be an easy fit) and after relinquishing a necessary percentage of NYC to AA/U, that could make the "big 3" fairly close trio in NYC. UAL/JB gives up the JB E-190's to AA/U (U already flies these) along with a specific number of NYC slots and you could have a very similar-sized and competitive NYC structure that would appease regulators.

Just my .02

eaglefly
07-08-2012, 06:20 AM
My personal opinion is that there need to be three major competitiors (AA, UA, DL) in NYC with roughly equal shares of the market. AA cant afford to let DL take B6 away (nor do I think the DOT would allow that).

My opinion and point above exactly, i.e., whatever occurs, the big 3 are fairly close in NYC market share and if one of the other two take B6, they'll have to divvy up some to AA/U. Agreed about PHL and U's International stake there.

Now if say, SWA makles a play for JB...........well, then it gets interesting. SWA at JFK would be an odd thing, of course, but they may have no choice about not running away from ANY airport or market.

tsquare
07-08-2012, 07:13 AM
CAL/UAL by far dominate the NYC region. They control just over 70% of the passenger traffic through EWR. When you take the total traffic numbers for the entire NYC region (EWR/LGA/JFK/SWF) the totals look like this:

(2011 data)
CAL/UAL 25.8%
DL 19.2%
AA 13.5%
JB 12.9%
US 5.7%

Next year DL will gain a few points from the LGA slot swap, putting them around 22% of total NYC traffic. You can add the numbers and see what would happen if DL/JB or AA/JB went through.

http://www.panynj.gov/airports/pdf-traffic/ATR2011.pdf (page 47)

Also some numbers for JFK/LGA passenger traffic

JFK
JB 23.9%
DL 23.9%
AA 17.2%

LGA
DL 29.6%
AA 20.8%
US 17.6%
JB 3.5%

Viewing NYC as a whole then DL+B6 would be 32% of total traffic, effectively eliminating AA+US to less than half the presence that the other major alliances have in the most important market in the USA. It would even put UAL drastically behind. I'm not saying AA+US wont be effective for capturing traffic in the NYC area, but they are putting all their eggs into the PHL basket. NYC will be destroyed for AA+US if/when DL+B6 happens.

My personal opinion is that there need to be three major competitiors (AA, UA, DL) in NYC with roughly equal shares of the market. AA cant afford to let DL take B6 away (nor do I think the DOT would allow that).


A recent presentation that I attended showed UAL with closer to 27% of the NY market, and DAL with 26%..

Numbers and statistics are only as good as their recency and accuracy though, so who knows what the current numbers are.

Regardless, I am not sure that DAL is really interested in JB. I don't KNOW that.. it is just a hunch. I would think we could grow the Caribbean organically if necessary, which is why I am not sure JB is in the sights. There are more slot controlled markets that DAL needs. JMHO.

cactiboss
07-08-2012, 11:22 AM
I hate to burst you guys bubble but it will be Usair taking over. I had the pleasure of speaking with a west guy that is a sme involved in the process, here is what he had to say. The UCC as is their fiduciary responsibility want a complete amr plan to compare against Parker's plan. Amr's plan will have to include finalized labor deals, whether abrogated by the courts or voted on by rank and file to be compared with Parker's (or anyone else's offer). As I assumed the more expensive the labor deal the worse Horton's plan will look. The UCC is in constant contact with Parker and has been told Parker's offer will be "substantial", no details have been shared for competitive reasons but the expectation is that once labor costs are locked in and horton's plans finalized, Parker will submit his competing plan to the UCC. Again the word "substantial" was used when describing Parker's expected offer to the UCC. As you guys speak of numbers don't forget Parker's plan would make AA the #1 airline in the entire east coast by a wide margin (not just the NYC area), #1 in the midwest, #3 in the west and the largest airline in the world.

Flyby1206
07-08-2012, 02:26 PM
My opinion and point above exactly, i.e., whatever occurs, the big 3 are fairly close in NYC market share and if one of the other two take B6, they'll have to divvy up some to AA/U. Agreed about PHL and U's International stake there.

Now if say, SWA makles a play for JB...........well, then it gets interesting. SWA at JFK would be an odd thing, of course, but they may have no choice about not running away from ANY airport or market.

If DL or UA take B6, then they would have to divest such a large % of the JFK slots that it might not make sense. What is the point of buying B6 if you dont get the JFK presence? The only ones who could buy B6 without having to divest too much would be AA or WN.

I think WN would love to have the NYC presence that B6 does, but it offers much more value to an international carrier like AA. The int'l connecting pax could fuel serious growth for someone with a global presence.

A recent presentation that I attended showed UAL with closer to 27% of the NY market, and DAL with 26%..

Numbers and statistics are only as good as their recency and accuracy though, so who knows what the current numbers are.

Regardless, I am not sure that DAL is really interested in JB. I don't KNOW that.. it is just a hunch. I would think we could grow the Caribbean organically if necessary, which is why I am not sure JB is in the sights. There are more slot controlled markets that DAL needs. JMHO.

My numbers were from 2011, and DL was just closing up the deal with U for the LGA slots, so I dont doubt your numbers as more current. I agree with you that DL wants to own NYC and the Caribbean as well, and they have plenty of slots/aircraft to do it themselves. Not to mention the DOT would require a massive divestiture of B6 slots in a takeover, which would almost certainly go to either AA or LCCs like WN/VX/F9/NK.

Flyby1206
07-08-2012, 02:30 PM
As you guys speak of numbers don't forget Parker's plan would make AA the #1 airline in the entire east coast by a wide margin (not just the NYC area), #1 in the midwest, #3 in the west and the largest airline in the world.

US+AA wouldnt be close to #1 in NYC unless you are counting PHL as part of that. You are also making the assumption that AA+US would mean every route currently operated by both would still be profitable after the massive payraises Parker is promising.

Look at NWA/DAL and the fallout in CVG/MEM...

cactiboss
07-08-2012, 02:55 PM
US+AA wouldnt be close to #1 in NYC unless you are counting PHL as part of that. You are also making the assumption that AA+US would mean every route currently operated by both would still be profitable after the massive payraises Parker is promising.

Look at NWA/DAL and the fallout in CVG/MEM...
I didn't mean #1 in NYC I meant #1 on the east coast as whole and by a wide margin. You are underestimating the value of all the other east coast centers where aa would be #1 besides NYC and the effect that would have on combined revenues.

Flyby1206
07-08-2012, 03:06 PM
I didn't mean #1 in NYC I meant #1 on the east coast as whole and by a wide margin. You are underestimating the value of all the other east coast centers where aa would be #1 besides NYC and the effect that would have on combined revenues.

I think DCA is a great business market, and the CLT hub is valuable to the AA network as a connection hub for the southeast, but both of those are limited to domestic service. I cant see any major international presence out of CLT beyond a few token flights to LHR and maybe MAD. 50/50 split between AA/US and BA/IB metal.

PHL serves as an international hub for US, but I dont think it will make the cut as a major part of the AA international network. Again, I could see token international flights to Europe hubs, and decent value in PHL as a domestic connect point for people in the northeast. PHL can support flights to places like PWM/MHT/ALB/etc, while JFK slots need to create more revenue. JFK will remain the international focus, with only domestic service to primary airports (LAX/MIA/etc).

I am not discounting the network that US brings to the table, but I dont think it can support the financial promises that Parker is making.

eaglefly
07-08-2012, 03:39 PM
I hate to burst you guys bubble but it will be Usair taking over. I had the pleasure of speaking with a west guy that is a sme involved in the process, here is what he had to say. The UCC as is their fiduciary responsibility want a complete amr plan to compare against Parker's plan. Amr's plan will have to include finalized labor deals, whether abrogated by the courts or voted on by rank and file to be compared with Parker's (or anyone else's offer). As I assumed the more expensive the labor deal the worse Horton's plan will look. The UCC is in constant contact with Parker and has been told Parker's offer will be "substantial", no details have been shared for competitive reasons but the expectation is that once labor costs are locked in and horton's plans finalized, Parker will submit his competing plan to the UCC. Again the word "substantial" was used when describing Parker's expected offer to the UCC. As you guys speak of numbers don't forget Parker's plan would make AA the #1 airline in the entire east coast by a wide margin (not just the NYC area), #1 in the midwest, #3 in the west and the largest airline in the world.

Not sure what "bubble" you think you're bursting, but regarding a U/AA merger, most here know Parker & Co. will be running the combined carrier. Horton will likely be his defacto boss as head of the entire One World network. You say the Parker and the UCC are in "constant contact" regarding a "substanttial offer", yet also note it requires "locked-in" labor costs. That means labor isn't part of that nexus and in fact, are NOT players but bystanders. His "labor" will be you and me and if the TA passes, you will then just join the rest of us bystanders under a CBA that will make your knees buckle with horror.

The combined carrier, if it were to stay its merged size would allow for 600 large 79-seat E-jets and another 450 or so code-share jets by other carriers with any size jet. More then likely the combined carrier will just melt at or faster then the rate of attrition and stabilize with 400-500 E-jets and 3-350 code-shares. Likewise, I hate to burst your bubble, but that's plenty enough for Jet Blue, Alaska and a host of others to expand and capitalize on and that stagnation when added with a decade under an agreement that Parker will make good use of, will make you yearn for the good old days of today, even under USAPA.

lakehouse
07-08-2012, 03:55 PM
I think USAIR needs AA, however long term AA does not need USAIR. AA can find partners and jump on chances.

USAIR will be nothing more than an odd puzzle pieces, looks like Southwest, but smells like Panam and TWA. They are mainly domestic with cheap labor is my point, with a few international routes.

cactiboss
07-08-2012, 04:46 PM
Not sure what "bubble" you think you're bursting, The "bubble" that you guys are in when you say amr will exit bankruptcy prior to the merger, the "bubble" where you guys are saying amr will buy b6.


but regarding a U/AA merger, most here know Parker & Co. will be running the combined carrier. So which is it? will Parker by amr or does this "deal" horton has with the pilot's torpedo the deal? Make up your minds You say the Parker and the UCC are in "constant contact" regarding a "substantial offer", yet also note it requires "locked-in" labor costs. That's absolutely correct, no one knows what Horton's plan will look like yet. Will it be the latest offer, will it be abrogated contracts? We don't know so we (and ucc) can't compare.
That means labor isn't part of that nexus and in fact, are NOT players but bystanders.
But labor costs definitely are, and until we know what those will be, Horton's plan cannot be compared against parkers

His "labor" will be you and me and if the TA passes, you will then just join the rest of us bystanders under a CBA that will make your knees buckle with horror. Of the merger happens, our contract will be the pre-negotiated term sheet, not the contract you are voting on now.

eaglefly
07-08-2012, 04:52 PM
If DL or UA take B6, then they would have to divest such a large % of the JFK slots that it might not make sense. What is the point of buying B6 if you dont get the JFK presence? The only ones who could buy B6 without having to divest too much would be AA or WN.

Generally agreed, that's another reason I put U at the top of the AA merger list.

I think WN would love to have the NYC presence that B6 does, but it offers much more value to an international carrier like AA. The int'l connecting pax could fuel serious growth for someone with a global presence.

Not at the top of the likelyhood list a SWA/B6 hookup is, but SWA has gone after some obscure carriers for their own interests.

eaglefly
07-08-2012, 05:24 PM
The "bubble" that you guys are in when you say amr will exit bankruptcy prior to the merger, the "bubble" where you guys are saying amr will buy b6.

You're convinced a U merger will happen prior to AA C11 emergence ?

OK, but I don't see that bubble myself as the most likely. Unless Parker was lying, he sees it after C11 emergence as well. As for B6 ? Possible, but less likely.....that's someone else's bubble.

So which is it? will Parker by amr or does this "deal" horton has with the pilot's torpedo the deal? Make up your minds

Horton has no deal with the pilots yet. 9 weak BOD members isn't the same. Other then that, I can't make up my mind as to what you're talking about here.

That's absolutely correct, no one knows what Horton's plan will look like yet. Will it be the latest offer, will it be abrogated contracts? We don't know so we (and ucc) can't compare.

If the TA fails, no one knows what will happen and my guess is no one will want to invest big $$$ putting hope on a so far weak/absent POR by AMR. Any imposed work orders cannot remain in perpituity and thus the future carrier cannot go forward with any certainties and without certainties, it really can't go forward very well. A bad place to be for any company clawing its way out of C11 or any management trying to convince others their POR is the best.

But labor costs definitely are, and until we know what those will be, Horton's plan cannot be compared against parkers

Exactly. A judges abrogation of our CBA results in a work order allowing AMR to make up its own work rules/pay, etc. Again, that cannot remain in perpituity and unless and until a CONSENSUAL labor agreement providing a stable determination of labor costs for a reasonable period of time exists, it's a rudderless quagmire that technically can be disregarded and AA can exit, but realistically cannot. All the players are then hamstrung as some of the players aren't sure what their cards are.


Of the merger happens, our contract will be the pre-negotiated term sheet, not the contract you are voting on now.

I'm sorry to be the bearer of bad tidings, but that's incorrect. If our TA is ratified it will give current management the exact stability they can make their "plan" with (POR) and since they get preference by the court, will easily exit BK in control. If that happens, the CLA that APA negotiated with Parker is null, void and of no further force and effect. In other words, it's deader then dog****. The APA and our TA/CBA will be the surviving aspects of the merge and you are screwed. Parker gets a better deal then he had with the APA and just like Beverly Goulet promised, AMR will get more favorable labor concessions then the APA/Parker deal. Good for everyone but us.

Welcome to our nightmare.

Then again, perhaps Parker out of the goodness of his heart and historical concern for pilots will give more money then he doesn't have to ?

Aren't you one of the chaps who says he's a swell guy and can be trusted to do the honorable thing ?

Uh, huh.........that's what I thought. :cool:

Do you find it odd that Parker is now perfectly happy with AMR's exclusivity extention and has said to his employees that the merger is still very much on track and will commence "upon AA's emergence from bankruptcy" (to which the then backpeddled his arse off) ?

I don't find those realities odd at all............not from a guy who might be getting a better deal then he thought he would. Could be, AA pilots are being played by those that they were playing. If only they can get this TA through, it all falls into place.

cactiboss
07-08-2012, 05:45 PM
You're convinced a U merger will happen prior to AA C11 emergence ? Without a doubt

OK, but I don't see that bubble myself as the most likely. Unless Parker was lying, he sees it after C11 emergence as well. As for B6 ? Possible, but less likely.....that's someone else's bubble. This is where you get the story wrong. Parker has told everyone that this deal only works if we merge during BK Period and it won't work after amr comes out.



Horton has no deal with the pilots yet. 9 weak BOD members isn't the same. Other then that, I can't make up my mind as to what you're talking about here. I am speaking chinese? Without agreements or abrogation in place no one can judge Horton's plan because the costs will be unknown, that is what this delay is about.



If the TA fails, no one knows what will happen and my guess is no one will want to invest big $$$ putting hope on a so far weak/absent POR by AMR. Any imposed work orders cannot remain in perpituity and thus the future carrier cannot go forward with any certainties and without certainties, it really can't go forward very well. A bad place to be for any company clawing its way out of C11 or any management trying to convince others their POR is the best. Hence why the ucc including the work groups are giving horton more time but retain the right to end hortons exclusivity



Exactly. A judges abrogation of our CBA results in a work order allowing AMR to make up its own work rules/pay, etc. Again, that cannot remain in perpituity and unless and until a CONSENSUAL labor agreement providing a stable determination of labor costs for a reasonable period of time exists, it's a rudderless quagmire that technically can be disregarded and AA can exit, but realistically cannot. All the players are then hamstrung as some of the players aren't sure what their cards are. Bingo, so which will it be? That is exactly why the ucc wanted more time.




I'm sorry to be the bearer of bad tidings, but that's incorrect. If our TA is ratified it will give current management the exact stability they can make their "plan" with (POR) and since they get preference by the court, will easily exit BK in control. I was told the exact opposite, Horton spends more money with this plan than with what he proposed originally, making labor more expensive and less competitive stand alone

If that happens, the CLA that APA negotiated with Parker is null, void and of no further force and effect. In other words, it's deader then dog****. Where do you come up with this? If Parker buys amr prior to bk exit, the term sheet negotiated will be your contract day 1, where do you get this becomes void stuff? The term sheet is only void if the merger doesn't happen.

The APA and our TA/CBA will be the surviving aspects of the merge and you are screwed. Parker gets a better deal then he had with the APA and just like Beverly Goulet promised, AMR will get more favorable labor concessions then the APA/Parker deal. Good for everyone but us.

Welcome to our nightmare. Again where do you get this stuff? The term sheet is a legal binding contract with Parker and can only go away if the merger does not happen.

Then again, perhaps Parker out of the goodness of his heart and concern for pilots will give more money then he doesn't have to ?

Aren't you one of the chaps who says he's a swell guy and can be trusted to do the honorable thing ?

Uh, huh.........that's what I thought. :cool:
I am the guy that told all back in November that Parker would come gunning for you with a vengeance. Not out of the goodness of his heart but for his desire of running the biggest airline on the planet. The key here is "his" desire, he could care less about his employees, but he is willing to pay to get his shot.

eaglefly
07-08-2012, 06:07 PM
Without a doubt
This is where you get the story wrong. Parker has told everyone that this deal only works if we merge during BK Period and it won't work after amr comes out.


I am speaking chinese? Without agreements or abrogation in place no one can judge Horton's plan because the costs will be unknown, that is what this delay is about.

Hence why the ucc including the work groups are giving horton more time but retain the right to end hortons exclusivity


Bingo, so which will it be? That is exactly why the ucc wanted more time.


I was told the exact opposite, Horton spends more money with this plan than with what he proposed originally, making labor more expensive and less competitive stand alone

Where do you come up with this? If Parker buys amr prior to bk exit, the term sheet negotiated will be your contract day 1, where do you get this becomes void stuff? The term sheet is only void if the merger doesn't happen.
Again where do you get this stuff? The term sheet is a legal binding contract with Parker and can only go away if the merger does not happen.


I am the guy that told all back in November that Parker would come gunning for you with a vengeance. Not out of the goodness of his heart but for his desire of running the biggest airline on the planet. The key here is "his" desire, he could care less about his employees, but he is willing to pay to get his shot.

Jesus. I feel like I'm talking to a USAPA BOD member. I'm simply not going to waste time trying to convince you of anything point-by-point anymore in these schizophrenic exchanges. We obviously see things differently. Let's watch the show and see where it goes. Still too many variables out there for ANYONE to say definatively what wil occur and when. I think you're getting a bit worked up, but perhaps that's a byproduct of the USAPA situation and the desperation to break that shackle.

The only thing I'll reiterate is that whomever told you the CLA the APA negotiated with Parker WILL be the contract in a merger scenario is incorrect. I guess I can see where you're getting it though as for that belief to be valid, Parker must submit and be awarded HIS POR to the court during C11. If AMR's POR is the one accepted by the court and UCC, then that agreement dies and if AMR's POR is accepted they retain control and exit BK stand alone to consider merger possibilities after that. Apparently you believe AMR getting an exclusivity extention is in Parker's best interest and somehow makes any POR he hopes to submit during BK the accepted one. Fine. Sure, down the road after merger, it's possible Parker could negotiate something different with pilots, but I see no reason he would HAVE to.

All this is semantics right now anyway. The only thing that should be of concern to AA pilots is the upcoming TA. We cannot directly control any merger decisions, but I realize guys like you are laser-focused on the only viable path to get you out of the USAPA Correctional Facility.

cactiboss
07-08-2012, 06:24 PM
Jesus. I feel like I'm talking to a USAPA BOD member. I'm simply not going to waste time trying to convince you of anything point-by-point anymore in these schizophrenic exchanges. We obviously see things differently. Let's watch the show and see where it goes. Still too many variables out there for ANYONE to say definatively what wil occur and when. I think you're getting a bit worked up, but perhaps that's a byproduct of the USAPA situation and the desperation to break that shackle.

The only thing I'll reiterate is that whomever told you the CLA the APA negotiated with Parker WILL be the contract in a merger scenario is incorrect. I guess I can see where you're getting it though as for that belief to be valid, Parker must submit and be awarded HIS POR to the court during C11. If AMR's POR is the one accepted by the court and UCC, then that agreement dies and if AMR's POR is accepted they retain control and exit BK stand alone to consider merger possibilities after that. Apparently you believe AMR getting an exclusivity extention is in Parker's best interest and somehow makes any POR he hopes to submit during BK the accepted one. Fine. Sure, down the road after merger, it's possible Parker could negotiate something different with pilots, but I see no reason he would HAVE to.

All this is semantics right now anyway. The only thing that should be of concern to AA pilots is the upcoming TA. We cannot directly control any merger decisions, but I realize guys like you are laser-focused on the only viable path to get you out of the USAPA Correctional Facility.
I'll make it simple for you. Regardless if you vote this deal or your contract is abrogated, we will merge while amr is in BK and when the POR is approved you will work under the term sheet negotiated with Parker. The merger will happen by the end of this year, guaranteed.

Senior Skipper
07-08-2012, 08:24 PM
What does the AA TA say about scope? How many RJ's will AA want now, and in the future?

AA gear puller
07-09-2012, 02:20 AM
I'll make it simple for you. Regardless if you vote this deal or your contract is abrogated, we will merge while amr is in BK and when the POR is approved you will work under the term sheet negotiated with Parker. The merger will happen by the end of this year, guaranteed.

Jesus Cactus! Who are you? Doug Parker? If I had a thousand bucks I'd bet you it won't happen pre exit. Parker is like one of those annoying little dogs that keeps biting your ankle to get your attention. But who knows? Every little dog has it's day!

What
07-09-2012, 03:12 AM
Jesus Cactus! Who are you? Doug Parker? If I had a thousand bucks I'd bet you it won't happen pre exit. Parker is like one of those annoying little dogs that keeps biting your ankle to get your attention. But who knows? Every little dog has it's day!

If Parker was so sure about this merger he wouldn't be stating how he hopes US Airways will be granted a fair chance to bid for AMR and following the exclusivity period extension saying that he is in no rush and now a merger might not happen until next year likely if at all. AMR has put a dog and pony show but they haven't put their plan up yet, we will see if after the union contracts are settled the word growth is utilized!

R57 relay
07-09-2012, 05:26 AM
The merger will happen by the end of this year, guaranteed.

Noted. Is that a twice your money back guarantee? :)

eaglefly
07-09-2012, 06:40 AM
I'll make it simple for you. Regardless if you vote this deal or your contract is abrogated, we will merge while amr is in BK and when the POR is approved you will work under the term sheet negotiated with Parker. The merger will happen by the end of this year, guaranteed.

Your claims don't sound so simple to me. Less then a week ago (July 4), you were all but begging us to ratify this TA. Now it seems you're saying it doesn't matter what we do in that regard as AA and U will merge by the end of the year still in Chapter 11 "guaranteed". Interesting considering that's still within AMR's newly extended exclusivity period for the most part (minus 2 business days). Also interesting in that it would seem to make all these TA shinnanigans unnecessary as ultimately the APA/U CLA will be the CBA "guaranteed". You'd think this would all be a waste of time and it would have been faster and more advantageous for all concerned for AMR to not offer anything more then the 1113. Lane's ruling on that should the TA fail is already sealed and waiting and all he can do is decide to abrogate or not, leaving AMR to impose the terms they choose.

If the outcome is now as guaranteed as you claim, why the previous aggressive sales job on our TA as the best move for us ?

Was it altruistic concern for a highly watered-down 13.5% stake whose method of compensation is determined at AMR's discretion and could be given as marginal stock in a stagnant or declining valued airline at least for the near term, or was it perhaps for the "influence" we'd have on a creditors commitee wherby even if all labor were aligned we couldn't override the non-labor creditors on the UCC and haven't made a damn so far ?

If all these claims of yours are guaranteed, why worry about any of this as the outcome has already been determined regardless of what we do and thus influence on the UCC would be pointless ?

Perhaps Horton was right and there IS something in the water down in Phoenix ? :rolleyes:

cactiboss
07-09-2012, 11:03 AM
Your claims don't sound so simple to me. Less then a week ago (July 4), you were all but begging us to ratify this TA. Now it seems you're saying it doesn't matter what we do in that regard as AA and U will merge by the end of the year still in Chapter 11 "guaranteed". Interesting considering that's still within AMR's newly extended exclusivity period for the most part (minus 2 business days). Also interesting in that it would seem to make all these TA shinnanigans unnecessary as ultimately the APA/U CLA will be the CBA "guaranteed". You'd think this would all be a waste of time and it would have been faster and more advantageous for all concerned for AMR to not offer anything more then the 1113. Lane's ruling on that should the TA fail is already sealed and waiting and all he can do is decide to abrogate or not, leaving AMR to impose the terms they choose.

If the outcome is now as guaranteed as you claim, why the previous aggressive sales job on our TA as the best move for us ?

Was it altruistic concern for a highly watered-down 13.5% stake whose method of compensation is determined at AMR's discretion and could be given as marginal stock in a stagnant or declining valued airline at least for the near term, or was it perhaps for the "influence" we'd have on a creditors commitee wherby even if all labor were aligned we couldn't override the non-labor creditors on the UCC and haven't made a damn so far ?

If all these claims of yours are guaranteed, why worry about any of this as the outcome has already been determined regardless of what we do and thus influence on the UCC would be pointless ?

Perhaps Horton was right and there IS something in the water down in Phoenix ? :rolleyes:
I never begged you to vote on anything, go back and look. All I said was that I agreed with your leadership. For some reason you can't understand that this new deal costs AMR more than their original last and best offer and probably more than an abrogated contract. Now this is simple math, if labor is more expensive than Horton planned is this good or bad for stand alone plan?.
You guys are taking a simplistic view of what is happening behind the scenes. I am here to share my opinion based on information I received, it's apparent to me that you have fallen for the false notion that this consensual deal kills Parker's chances to merge while under BK, but none of you can back up why that is so.

eaglefly
07-09-2012, 01:59 PM
I never begged you to vote on anything, go back and look. All I said was that I agreed with your leadership. For some reason you can't understand that this new deal costs AMR more than their original last and best offer and probably more than an abrogated contract. Now this is simple math, if labor is more expensive than Horton planned is this good or bad for stand alone plan?.

The relatively small increase in expenses of the TA vs. the 1113 for AMR isn't the driving force for getting them to the finish line of exiting C11 stand alone with the winning POR, it's the existence of a consensual CBA that provides for stable, predictable labor costs over an acceptable period of time. It's not so much a math issue as a confidence issue. No airline has emerged from Chapter 11 operating with a spastic, unpredicatable wildcard of expenses for its pilots that a court imposed work order would result in. The likelihood of uncontrolled rates of attrition alone is too destabilizing for creditors and investors.

You guys are taking a simplistic view of what is happening behind the scenes.

Yet, you come across as having little VALID information "behind the scenes", instead adding 2+2 and getting 43.6. For example......


I am here to share my opinion based on information I received, it's apparent to me that you have fallen for the false notion that this consensual deal kills Parker's chances to merge while under BK, but none of you can back up why that is so.

.......which of the two choices gives AMR the best chance to present a stable POR to the court and convince the creditors they are in control of the situation and have a handle on labor;

A. Consensual labor agreements, especially with the pilots that the court, creditors and investors can quantify to determine their future risk ? or;

B. Abrogated contracts with no definition on present or future costs or any duration to determine when that might occur ?

I say "A" gets AMR what they need. If they get that, they are more likely to submit the POR the court approves. Again, Parker can't even submit a POR during AMR's exclusivity period (which now goes to the end of the year) unless the the creditors petition the court and with consensual deals from labor (this TA), that's less likely. If AMR does succeed with the approved POR by the court, the April CLA (Conditional Labor Agreement) the APA inked with Parker is dead.

Back that up ?

Try rereading Paragraph V.H. of the CLA.

Don't have a copy of the CLA ?

Then why on god's green earth are you claiming all this "guaranteed" nonsense when you don't even have the relevant data to support your assertions, instead belching them from the upper bleachers apparently based on what the peanut vendor told you ?

Please tell me you're not breathing USAPA smoke on this.

aquagreen73s
07-09-2012, 03:36 PM
I say "A" gets AMR what they need. If they get that, they are more likely to submit the POR the court approves. Again, Parker can't even submit a POR during AMR's exclusivity period (which now goes to the end of the year) unless the the creditors petition the court and with consensual deals from labor (this TA), that's less likely. If AMR does succeed with the approved POR by the court, the April CLA (Conditional Labor Agreement) the APA inked with Parker is dead.

Exactly. What some are forgetting is that what's happening now is not an auction; Parker's highest bid (if in fact it actually is the "highest" bid) means nothing. It all comes down to the UCC members and what they think is best for those creditors specifically, and the other creditors represented by the UCC members. NOBODY knows what's happening inside the UCC save for the members themselves and their lawyers. Projected revenue streams and cost synergies sound compelling, but for one, those are not exclusive to Parker, and two, there are factors different from what Parker anchors his plan to which may or may not be more important to the UCC. I don't know. No one does. But since all any of us are doing here is just guessing, let me rhetorically ask what Boeing is thinking about merging AMR with Doug Parker, CEO of the only major airline going exclusive Airbus. Boeing has a tremendous amount of pull in Washington and among the banks because don't forget, banks and airplane manufacturers make a lot of business for each other. What do the Wall Street banks want? What's best for them? NOBODY knows.

cactiboss
07-09-2012, 05:04 PM
The relatively small increase in expenses of the TA vs. the 1113 for AMR isn't the driving force for getting them to the finish line of exiting C11 stand alone with the winning POR,
In a low margin business that small increase is huge. Every analyst says Horton's plan is bad and will bring amr back into bankruptcy but somehow the ucc will look favorably on a "small increase" to that plans costs.

it's the existence of a consensual CBA that provides for stable, predictable labor costs over an acceptable period of time. It's not so much a math issue as a confidence issue. So a bad plan will be more palatable to the ucc than the one Parker will offer?

No airline has emerged from Chapter 11 operating with a spastic, unpredicatable wildcard of expenses for its pilots that a court imposed work order would result in. The likelihood of uncontrolled rates of attrition alone is too destabilizing for creditors and investors. Dude you are dreaming if you think that matters.




Yet, you come across as having little VALID information "behind the scenes", instead adding 2+2 and getting 43.6. For example......
I have loads of valid info, I just choose to look at it.



.......which of the two choices gives AMR the best chance to present a stable POR to the court and convince the creditors they are in control of the situation and have a handle on labor;

A. Consensual labor agreements, especially with the pilots that the court, creditors and investors can quantify to determine their future risk ? or;

B. Abrogated contracts with no definition on present or future costs or any duration to determine when that might occur ?

I say "A" gets AMR what they need. If they get that, they are more likely to submit the POR the court approves. Again, Parker can't even submit a POR during AMR's exclusivity period (which now goes to the end of the year) unless the the creditors petition the court and with consensual deals from labor (this TA), that's less likely. If AMR does succeed with the approved POR by the court, the April CLA (Conditional Labor Agreement) the APA inked with Parker is dead.

Back that up ?

Because an imposed contract is less stable? Again you are fooling yourself, dollars and cents is all they care about.



Try rereading Paragraph V.H. of the CLA.

Don't have a copy of the CLA ?

Then why on god's green earth are you claiming all this "guaranteed" nonsense when you don't even have the relevant data to support your assertions, instead belching them from the upper bleachers apparently based on what the peanut vendor told you ?

Please tell me you're not breathing USAPA smoke on this.
Nope don't have a copy but I understand why your union wants you to vote yes, maybe you should put a little thought into why they are doing that. I told you how I see it playing out, why don't we make a little wager? One side starts a thread saying they were wrong by january 31st?

eaglefly
07-10-2012, 02:56 AM
In a low margin business that small increase is huge. Every analyst says Horton's plan is bad and will bring amr back into bankruptcy but somehow the ucc will look favorably on a "small increase" to that plans costs.
So a bad plan will be more palatable to the ucc than the one Parker will offer?

Dude you are dreaming if you think that matters.



I have loads of valid info, I just choose to look at it.



Because an imposed contract is less stable? Again you are fooling yourself, dollars and cents is all they care about.



Nope don't have a copy but I understand why your union wants you to vote yes, maybe you should put a little thought into why they are doing that. I told you how I see it playing out, why don't we make a little wager? One side starts a thread saying they were wrong by january 31st?

LMAO !!!!

First of all, you have NO IDEA what or why our union is advocating anything. AB-SO-****ING-LUTELY NONE. Internal issues are going on here you know nothing about. AFAIC, you can believe whatever you want. I've no further interest in bickering with you over our differences of opinion, which BTW, is ALL they are........opinion. To represent yourself on this forum as your opinions being absolute certainty and "guaranteed" about what will ultimately occur with AA, any mergers it may undertake, whose POR is accepted by the court, the motives of unions you do not belong to or any other uncertain variable in this situation is pure unadulterated horse**** IMO.

Please though, by all means continue to knock yourself out. ;)

I can only conclude your seething, white-hot hatred for USAPA is the driving force behind all of your certainty. When one possess that much anger and rage, it tends to muddy up judgement on related matters. Personally, I think it will be interesting to see how Parker can get his POR in (let alone accepted by the court) this year while AMR has exclusivity thru virtually the end of 2012. His only chance on that it would seem is if our TA fails ratification, AA starts to unravel and the UCC petitons the court to end exclusivity early. Otherwise if it passes, I really only see AMR calling the shots and in fact, it wouldn't surprise me to see them request and be awarded a third extention to exclusivity to tie up loose ends and exit unmolested 1Q13.

I don't do forum bets or wagers, but perhaps your cat may be interested ?

NERD
07-10-2012, 05:23 AM
And if you need a laugh, there are still delusional DAL pilots that think Delta is going to buy a piece of AA. I think that is about as likely as a July snowstorm at DFW though.

Elvis90
07-10-2012, 05:41 AM
And if you need a laugh, there are still delusional DAL pilots that think Delta is going to buy a piece of AA. I think that is about as likely as a July snowstorm at DFW though.

There's a delusional Delta CEO that would like to buy your Miami hub, so much so that they hired a firm to explore the purchase. But I agree that is unlikely.

eaglefly
07-10-2012, 05:46 AM
And if you need a laugh, there are still delusional DAL pilots that think Delta is going to buy a piece of AA. I think that is about as likely as a July snowstorm at DFW though.

I could always use a good laugh !

As for the above, I'd think it is at the bottom of the list of possibilities too. BK courts tend to heavily favor the debtors interests as opposed to outsiders and they get extra consideration regarding an approval for their POR, everything else being equal. As long as the creditors are onboard, I don't see AMR being knocked off track within the C11 period, but that's opinion as I'm not the forum clairvoyant - god of certainty and I certainly wouldn't "guarantee" that. :rolleyes:

tsquare
07-10-2012, 08:18 AM
de le ted............

Elvis90
07-10-2012, 12:28 PM
Potential merger partners are US Air, JetBlue and Delta, although Delta would face regulatory hurtles.

http://online.wsj.com/article/SB10001424052702303567704577518980624743426.html

newKnow
07-10-2012, 12:29 PM
There's a delusional Delta CEO that would like to buy your Miami hub, so much so that they hired a firm to explore the purchase. But I agree that is unlikely.

NERD is a Delta guy and no matter what he say's, he's "real." :D

Elvis90
07-10-2012, 12:33 PM
There's a delusional Delta CEO that would like to buy your Miami hub, so much so that they hired a firm to explore the purchase. But I agree that is unlikely.

NERD is a Delta guy and no matter what he say's, he's "real." :D

OK, sorry Nerd, disregard.

tsquare
07-10-2012, 12:46 PM
And if you need a laugh, there are still delusional DAL pilots that think Delta is going to buy a piece of AA. I think that is about as likely as a July snowstorm at DFW though.


Money talks. Not saying it is gonna happen, or even seriously being considered, but it is incredibly naive to think that whoever provides the cash will be discounted whether that be DAL or anybody else. And it is not the debtors that carry the most weight in BK.. it is the creditors.

Flyby1206
07-10-2012, 01:15 PM
Potential merger partners are US Air, JetBlue and Delta, although Delta would face regulatory hurtles.

AMR Will Explore Merger Options - WSJ.com (http://online.wsj.com/article/SB10001424052702303567704577518980624743426.html)

Im surprised Alaska isnt on that list anymore. I wonder if AA has already made a backroom deal with Delta not to go after AS.

Elvis90
07-10-2012, 01:40 PM
Potential merger partners are US Air, JetBlue and Delta, although Delta would face regulatory hurtles.

AMR Will Explore Merger Options - WSJ.com (http://online.wsj.com/article/SB10001424052702303567704577518980624743426.html)

Im surprised Alaska isnt on that list anymore. I wonder if AA has already made a backroom deal with Delta not to go after AS.

Some analysts have ruled out AS and B6 because of cultural differences and their niche markets.

cactiboss
07-10-2012, 01:49 PM
Wall street Journal? Eaglefly doesn't buy any of that.

eaglefly
07-10-2012, 02:04 PM
Wall street Journal? Eaglefly doesn't buy any of that.

I've heard people talking about this for at least a week. Weeks ago, Beverly Goulet assured bondholders they would get better deals with labor then Parker in an effort to trumpet the stand-alone plan which gets them more money then someone else's plan. That was just weeks ago and to the bondholders, yet. Horton met with certain creditors in the last few days and all concerned knew that AMR simply has to appease the UCC (non-labor) with exploring other options for best return for all principles concerned.

The floaters to be sent out to other merger/fragmentation considerations can be evaluated at AMR (and creditors) discretion without the sword of damocles hanging over their heads as AMR's exclusivity lasts another 6 months. Only the creditors can shoot Horton and they must be appeased that all financial considerations are under review. A merger inside BK and inside AMR exclusivity can occur and still be AMR's POR, controlled for the benefit of both the creditors and AMR management (and the 3rd party too, of course). If it's AMR's POR and this TA passes, they'll have the lowest labor costs in the industry bar none and by a significant margin. That's a powerful consideration, especially with a decade of spread-sheet cost stability behind it for the pilots and will be the far preferred outcome of the pilots TA vote..........well, not for pilots of course, but when have their interests mattered to anyone ?

Eaglefly didn't wander in from Bone Daddy's last week, but I'll give the court back to the US Airways pilot who is the forum expert on all things AMR, Chapter 11 and APA. :rolleyes:

What
07-10-2012, 03:45 PM
Im surprised Alaska isnt on that list anymore. I wonder if AA has already made a backroom deal with Delta not to go after AS.

I think AS is interestig due to having code shares with AMR and DAL. It will be interestig to see how all plays out!

R57 relay
07-10-2012, 03:45 PM
I'll give the court back to the US Airways pilot who is the forum expert on all things AMR, Chapter 11 and APA. :rolleyes:

And everything else about this industry, haven't you been listening? He has been trying to educate you guys for a while.;)

cactiboss
07-10-2012, 05:16 PM
I've heard people talking about this for at least a week. Weeks ago, Beverly Goulet assured bondholders they would get better deals with labor then Parker in an effort to trumpet the stand-alone plan which gets them more money then someone else's plan. That was just weeks ago and to the bondholders, yet. Horton met with certain creditors in the last few days and all concerned knew that AMR simply has to appease the UCC (non-labor) with exploring other options for best return for all principles concerned.

The floaters to be sent out to other merger/fragmentation considerations can be evaluated at AMR (and creditors) discretion without the sword of damocles hanging over their heads as AMR's exclusivity lasts another 6 months. Only the creditors can shoot Horton and they must be appeased that all financial considerations are under review. A merger inside BK and inside AMR exclusivity can occur and still be AMR's POR, controlled for the benefit of both the creditors and AMR management (and the 3rd party too, of course). If it's AMR's POR and this TA passes, they'll have the lowest labor costs in the industry bar none and by a significant margin. That's a powerful consideration, especially with a decade of spread-sheet cost stability behind it for the pilots and will be the far preferred outcome of the pilots TA vote..........well, not for pilots of course, but when have their interests mattered to anyone ?

Eaglefly didn't wander in from Bone Daddy's last week, but I'll give the court back to the US Airways pilot who is the forum expert on all things AMR, Chapter 11 and APA. :rolleyes:
Thanks, like I said fancy a wager?

cactiboss
07-10-2012, 05:19 PM
And everything else about this industry, haven't you been listening? He has been trying to educate you guys for a while.;)
You funny. You have to go no further than phx last crew news whre kirby is saying things will start accelerating behind the scenes, also had Kerr on my flight and he laid it out.

R57 relay
07-10-2012, 05:50 PM
You funny. You have to go no further than phx last crew news whre kirby is saying things will start accelerating behind the scenes, also had Kerr on my flight and he laid it out.

Which one, the Delta or American merger?

Sliceback
07-10-2012, 06:50 PM
If it's AMR's POR and this TA passes, they'll have the lowest labor costs in the industry bar none and by a significant margin.

What's the labor cost look like if the 1113 is imposed? Wouldn't that be even lower vs. the rest of the industry?

What
07-11-2012, 04:19 AM
What's the labor cost look like if the 1113 is imposed? Wouldn't that be even lower vs. the rest of the industry?

I think you missed understood his point, he was simply implaying that if AMR is to get the current TA and their Plan, AMR cost will be lower than the competition (bar none)... Meaning lower than everyone!

As far as the 1113, nobody but AMR managment knows what terms would be imposed in the event the process is carried out. The contract would be abroggeated and the company can/will impose workrules at their will, they could impose the initial 1113 term sheet, the updated 1113, the recent TA or somewhere in between! At this point that is the big unknown. AMR managment has been quoted saying that if the 1113 process is carried out they will impose the initial 1113 and not the gains made during barganing, this could be truth or this could be leverage but is an unknown, but if the initial 1113 is imposed the consequences with labor could be costly.

eaglefly
07-11-2012, 04:52 AM
Thanks, like I said fancy a wager?

Like I said, I don't do internet "wagers". Try Vegas. :rolleyes:

saabslime
07-11-2012, 07:19 AM
How can AA management sit there and tell the judge that they need to abrogate labor contracts when the company's cash position has IMPROVED while under the existing contracts? What am I missing??

cactiboss
07-11-2012, 01:04 PM
Like I said, I don't do internet "wagers". Try Vegas. :rolleyes:
Looks like Horton wants to look at Virgin, frontier and republic amongst others.:rolleyes:

cactusmike
07-11-2012, 02:17 PM
Alaska says no thanks. I don't have the link but they put out a statement today.

Elvis90
07-11-2012, 02:19 PM
Alaska says no thanks. I don't have the link but they put out a statement today.

Wow, that was quick.

cactiboss
07-11-2012, 02:58 PM
Wow, that was quick.
It is embarrassing that Horton would even put that crap out.

buddies8
07-12-2012, 08:56 PM
Looks like Horton wants to look at Virgin, frontier and republic amongst others.:rolleyes:

that leaves no one else to mention. everyone is on the list except Southwest.

Mesabah
07-23-2012, 07:54 AM
Getting your contract rejected by the judge is almost always the better option, and in the long run, it has gotten a better contract than the initial TA offering. Also, APA will win the current 1113(c) process motion since the current one from AA does not meet the requirements of fair and equitable bargaining. You will have a much better leg to stand on after the judge rejects AA's motion, trust me, voting yes on that TA is a mistake.

eaglefly
07-23-2012, 12:24 PM
Getting your contract rejected by the judge is almost always the better option, and in the long run, it has gotten a better contract than the initial TA offering. Also, APA will win the current 1113(c) process motion since the current one from AA does not meet the requirements of fair and equitable bargaining. You will have a much better leg to stand on after the judge rejects AA's motion, trust me, voting yes on that TA is a mistake.

If the TA fails, the judge will rule in AMR's favor and abrogate the current CBA. It's then up to AMR what they want to impose. The judge won't decide that, AMR will. That being said, I think the TA has a very good chance of faliure as aside from being obscenely deficient relative to the competitive landscape, it has very little final contractual language and therefore has no real meaning.

I'd rather wander around in a contractual abyss r an indeterminate period of time then chain myself to a decade of that garbage any day of the week and twice on August 8th.

Mesabah
07-23-2012, 02:47 PM
If the TA fails, the judge will rule in AMR's favor and abrogate the current CBA. It's then up to AMR what they want to impose. The judge won't decide that, AMR will. That being said, I think the TA has a very good chance of faliure as aside from being obscenely deficient relative to the competitive landscape, it has very little final contractual language and therefore has no real meaning.

AA has not met the requirements of the 1113(c) process to have the judge reject the contract.

I'm an expert in labor law and bankruptcy. I've been through 5 of them personally. Going on number 6 right now.

eaglefly
07-23-2012, 07:17 PM
AA has not met the requirements of the 1113(c) process to have the judge reject the contract.

I'm an expert in labor law and bankruptcy. I've been through 5 of them personally. Going on number 6 right now.

I'd love for you to be right. But to find that out, it will require a rejection of the TA. Based on what I know from other sources vs. a regional airline captain who claims to be an expert on labor law and bankruptcy on a pilots forum, I hope you'll not be offended if I place my bets on what other sources say.

Mesabah
07-24-2012, 04:45 PM
I'd love for you to be right. But to find that out, it will require a rejection of the TA. Based on what I know from other sources vs. a regional airline captain who claims to be an expert on labor law and bankruptcy on a pilots forum, I hope you'll not be offended if I place my bets on what other sources say.No, I'm not offended you've got to do what you've got to do.

I've had my contract rejected, and every time it was a non-event. Management can only impose certain terms that are in the 1113(c) filing and you must eventually work towards a new CBA. Also, management must remove all the scope relief proposals from an imposed contract as this violates the right of free union association(violation of labor law). For scope relief to take effect, management must have a consensual agreement with the pilot group.

But I will tell you that even if you do vote this TA down, AA management will not allow the 1113(c) judgement to be released as it would weaken their position. Go back in my post history around the time when the judge said he was ready to rule, I posted that AA management with the union would stall the judge to not render his decision. They will do it again if this TA is shot down.

eaglefly
07-25-2012, 05:22 PM
No, I'm not offended you've got to do what you've got to do.

I've had my contract rejected, and every time it was a non-event. Management can only impose certain terms that are in the 1113(c) filing and you must eventually work towards a new CBA. Also, management must remove all the scope relief proposals from an imposed contract as this violates the right of free union association(violation of labor law). For scope relief to take effect, management must have a consensual agreement with the pilot group.

But I will tell you that even if you do vote this TA down, AA management will not allow the 1113(c) judgement to be released as it would weaken their position. Go back in my post history around the time when the judge said he was ready to rule, I posted that AA management with the union would stall the judge to not render his decision. They will do it again if this TA is shot down.

As far as abrogation, you need to read the court transcripts, especially the judges closing statements. Every airline BK is different and this BK and this judge (his first BK proceeding) aren't the same as the ones you experienced. I still stand by my belief the judge will abrogate. Again, what happens then is up to AMR as is the timing.

I'm voting no and what will happen, will happen.

Mesabah
07-26-2012, 10:40 AM
As far as abrogation, you need to read the court transcripts, especially the judges closing statements. Every airline BK is different and this BK and this judge (his first BK proceeding) aren't the same as the ones you experienced. I still stand by my belief the judge will abrogate. Again, what happens then is up to AMR as is the timing.

I'm voting no and what will happen, will happen.I've read them. What will happen is the judge will deny the company's 1113(c) in its current form, ask AA management to remove the scope relief, and then refile the motion. The Judge will then rule with the company for contract rejection. The cuts will be deeper, but scope will be preserved.

eaglefly
07-26-2012, 12:50 PM
I've read them. What will happen is the judge will deny the company's 1113(c) in its current form, ask AA management to remove the scope relief, and then refile the motion. The Judge will then rule with the company for contract rejection. The cuts will be deeper, but scope will be preserved.

You should be the next "Miss Cleo". ;-)

alfaromeo
07-27-2012, 12:35 PM
I've read them. What will happen is the judge will deny the company's 1113(c) in its current form, ask AA management to remove the scope relief, and then refile the motion. The Judge will then rule with the company for contract rejection. The cuts will be deeper, but scope will be preserved.

Please, no one make any decision based on this guy's advice. He thinks he is an expert but he is not. His ideas are just internet trash talk. American pilots should listen to what their union and the lawyers are saying and make their decision based on that. Almost everything this guy says is wrong.

eaglefly
07-27-2012, 12:51 PM
Please, no one make any decision based on this guy's advice. He thinks he is an expert but he is not. His ideas are just internet trash talk. American pilots should listen to what their union and the lawyers are saying and make their decision based on that. Almost everything this guy says is wrong.

Well, in this case it appears MANY are NOT listening to the union or their advisors and for compelling reasons. This TA has a very real chance of failure. As for Miss Cleo, she's definitely convinced herself that she's the guru of all airline chapter 11's. :cool:

If judge Lane stands by his verbal implications, he'll grant the debtors motion to abrogate, albeit it sounds reluctantly. AMR has little chance of rebuilding AA without defined, stable labor costs going forward. They couldn't even do it WITH that in the past.

alfaromeo
07-27-2012, 04:47 PM
Well, in this case it appears MANY are NOT listening to the union or their advisors and for compelling reasons. This TA has a very real chance of failure. As for Miss Cleo, she's definitely convinced herself that she's the guru of all airline chapter 11's. :cool:

If judge Lane stands by his verbal implications, he'll grant the debtors motion to abrogate, albeit it sounds reluctantly. AMR has little chance of rebuilding AA without defined, stable labor costs going forward. They couldn't even do it WITH that in the past.

Look, the American pilots will decide their fate and whatever they decide is the right choice. My only concern is that anyone who listens to this internet pseudo intellectual legal crap is doing themselves a disservice. Seek advice from the bankruptcy lawyers and not from webboard warriors.

carlwag
07-28-2012, 06:39 AM
Getting your contract rejected by the judge is almost always the better option, and in the long run, it has gotten a better contract than the initial TA offering. Also, APA will win the current 1113(c) process motion since the current one from AA does not meet the requirements of fair and equitable bargaining. You will have a much better leg to stand on after the judge rejects AA's motion.


This is just about the most ridiculous statement I have seen written on Airline Pilot Central. Not one airline has ever won the 1113 process. Yet, incredibly, APA will! Hahaha. Getting your contract rejected is almost always the better option? It has never been done. How could anyone know that it is a better option?

Mesabah
07-28-2012, 07:39 AM
Please, no one make any decision based on this guy's advice. He thinks he is an expert but he is not. His ideas are just internet trash talk. American pilots should listen to what their union and the lawyers are saying and make their decision based on that. Almost everything this guy says is wrong.
Yes you're right, they should make their own decision, however they should also hear other peoples advice who have been through it before to assist in making the most informed decision. This is what a pilot rumor webboard is all about; Speculation. I'm simply using my past history to suggest there is a better way, since obviously the past way isn't working very well.

We won our first 1113(c) motion at Mesaba, and we were way better off after we won it.

eaglefly
07-28-2012, 08:53 AM
Look, the American pilots will decide their fate and whatever they decide is the right choice. My only concern is that anyone who listens to this internet pseudo intellectual legal crap is doing themselves a disservice. Seek advice from the bankruptcy lawyers and not from webboard warriors.

What gives you the impression the few AA pilots aboard are basing anything on any statements here ?

eaglefly
07-28-2012, 08:56 AM
Yes you're right, they should make their own decision, however they should also hear other peoples advice who have been through it before to assist in making the most informed decision. This is what a pilot rumor webboard is all about; Speculation. I'm simply using my past history to suggest there is a better way, since obviously the past way isn't working very well.

We won our first 1113(c) motion at Mesaba, and we were way better off after we won it.

Having been through the process hardly qualifies you as an "expert" on bankruptcy law. By that token, most surgical patients are qualified physicians.

Mesabah
07-28-2012, 09:15 AM
Having been through the process hardly qualifies you as an "expert" on bankruptcy law. By that token, most surgical patients are qualified physicians.
I'm not presenting myself as a lawyer here. There's a difference between knowing the law and practicing law. Just as there is a difference between knowing what goes on during surgery and practicing medicine. If I was having surgery and wanted to know everything about the procedure, I could research it, but that doesn't make me qualified to operate. I'm not asking to represent the APA in court here, I'm simply stating that the law is not completely against labor as it is made out to be. The fear being put out there is completely ridiculous, and it's hurting the profession dearly.

eaglefly
07-28-2012, 12:20 PM
I'm not presenting myself as a lawyer here. There's a difference between knowing the law and practicing law. Just as there is a difference between knowing what goes on during surgery and practicing medicine. If I was having surgery and wanted to know everything about the procedure, I could research it, but that doesn't make me qualified to operate. I'm not asking to represent the APA in court here, I'm simply stating that the law is not completely against labor as it is made out to be. The fear being put out there is completely ridiculous, and it's hurting the profession dearly.

Well, in a previous post you stated you are an expert in labor law and bankruptcy and repeatedly stated what will occur with absolute certainty should our contract be subject to abrogation by Lane. Not much grey are with that. At any rate, if this TA tragically passes, we'll never find out.

Gallifrey
07-28-2012, 12:38 PM
When will we know? Then I don't have to keep checking!

Mesabah
07-28-2012, 02:24 PM
Well, in a previous post you stated you are an expert in labor law and bankruptcy and repeatedly stated what will occur with absolute certainty should our contract be subject to abrogation by Lane. Not much grey are with that. At any rate, if this TA tragically passes, we'll never find out.
Well, it's quite easy to explain my position. Could AA impose a 200hr monthly block requirement of its pilot group? The answer is no, because 100 hrs max for the month is a federal regulation. Could the judge allow AA to impose a contract, which provisions violate OSHA law? Certainly not! So my question is, how can a bankruptcy judge abrogate a contract and allow labor laws to be null and avoid? That's what is contained in the AA 1113(C) motion. It is federal law that works have the right to organize and monopolize their labor at their respective companies. Only a consensual agreement between its workers can allow a company to outsource its labor.

eaglefly
07-28-2012, 05:29 PM
When will we know? Then I don't have to keep checking!

August 8th.

eaglefly
07-28-2012, 05:34 PM
Well, it's quite easy to explain my position. Could AA impose a 200hr monthly block requirement of its pilot group? The answer is no, because 100 hrs max for the month is a federal regulation. Could the judge allow AA to impose a contract, which provisions violate OSHA law? Certainly not! So my question is, how can a bankruptcy judge abrogate a contract and allow labor laws to be null and avoid? That's what is contained in the AA 1113(C) motion. It is federal law that works have the right to organize and monopolize their labor at their respective companies. Only a consensual agreement between its workers can allow a company to outsource its labor.

By your argument all airline labor would have to be unionized and operating under negotiated CBA's. We know that's not the case. You're arguing certainties again and I cannot validate your conclusions.