sky jet

No airline is recession proof. Period. None. The question alone is either an incredible act of hubris or naivety. ACMI airlines, no matter how diversified, are especially vulnerable as they don't control their own lift. As soon as the customers start having financial problems you can bet your bottom dollar that the price of freight per pound/kilo will fall, Eventually it may fall below the cost to operate a flight. Soon pilots are out walking the street. These days, many that read these boards, have only know an aviation industry on the rise. A little research will show that history is littered with airlines that were, "riding high in April, shot down in May". That's life.

mart83648

To put it in perspective, Atlas pilots were the only ones flying during the lockdown, meanwhile getting paid less than Delta pilots sitting at home.

Anderson

FedEx and UPS were flying like crazy during the lockdowns.


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mart83648

Yes, I tried to edit my comment to include, but it wouldn't let me.

SealingStemBolt

And in January 2020 FedEx was talking about parking airplanes and furlough mitigation because of Amazon. Point is that any airline is vulnerable. 5-10 years from now we could all be talking about FedEx and/or UPS like we do about the good old days of Pan Am. At least Atlas is as diversified as an airline can be.

Twin Wasp

When the prior job shut down (mainly domestic) one of the things I said when asked “Why Atlas?” was that their diverse international operations would make them more resistant to economic hiccups. Eighteen months later got the email “If you are reading this email you will be furloughed per the CBA …”

dera

Not sure about other fleets, but 747/777 pilots were making more money through the lockdown than Delta pilots actively flying.

zerozero

Controversial take: Yes, Atlas is virtually recession proof.

Why? Atlas hardly ever has any exposure to fuel expenses. The only time Atlas pays for fuel is on an ad hoc charter. Otherwise, the biggest customers, DHL, Amazon and U.S. Military (among others) all pick up the fuel tab. And you know how sensitive the military is to fuel cost? They aren't.

Second controversial take: Atlas has never (never) furloughed for economic reasons. They have always furloughed as an intimidation tactic during contract negotiations.

Atlas does well in good times (strong consumer, freight markets).
Atlas does well in bad times (war, disease, downsizing providing cheaper outsource alternative).

The biggest threat to the career of an Atlas pilot is not some random exogenous threat. The biggest threat to a career at Atlas is an internal executive tactic, deliberately made to keep your services cheap and your negotiating position unstable.

#HistoricFacts

sky jet

Yes, controversial. I will respectfully disagree. A global recession while having a fuel cost component would if it happens have many other factors that will effect the airfreight industry. Slowing or shuttered industries. Lost consumer confidence. Shrinking military budgets due to lowered tax collections from unemployed or underemployed taxpayers. Soaring interest rates. Mortgage foreclosures and buisness bankruptcies. These are just a few of the unpleasant things that will happen in a recession. We are not talking about an economic downturn, we are discussing a declared national or world wide recession. Just like a rising tide raises all boats a receding tide brings everyone down. Let's hope we don't have to find out whose theory is correct.

SealingStemBolt

I sure wouldn't want to be working anywhere else in that scenario. Worst that can happen to Atlas is a competitor eats their lunch and they go the way of World. If China creates an Atlas clone with cheap Chinese pilots and cheap Chinese airplanes and bullies their way into right-of-ways around the world, that could be the worst thing to happen to Atlas.

The stuff you're talking about would be a comparative inconvenience to Atlas (or other ACMI) vs what it would do to basically any other US air carrier.