I thought that was Terminator

That too, but Dune was 19 years earlier. The human/machine conflict theme goes back to Asimov’s I, Robot, and even before that.

Blazing - I disagree. This is nothing new, humanity has kept evolving and, as always, we’ll adapt to changes. No basic income or other nonsensical leftist, zuckerberg-tainted wetdream is necessary.

To go back to the original subject, my prediction:
~15 years from now IROs at some (not all but some) airlines are ground based. So a third, ground-based pilot is monitoring along with one of the cockpit-based pilots while one of them is in the bunk. ~10 years later the FO position becomes ground-based too. Not sure when and if it’ll ever go totally “pilot-less” but in all likelihood one day it’ll happen.
Who knows how it’ll all work out, BUT there will be other jobs and people will adapt.

Only because of the sick mindset of our government which taxes work instead of consumption.

I work in industrial automation, building and selling robots of all shapes and flavors. We build the very newest and latest technology there is in automation, and it is changing so fast now I can't keep up, it is a blur of new things doing new things. Jobs we couldn't possibly automate a year ago we are automating, perfectly. Machine vision and sensing is the area that is advancing the fastest, and that is what is making a robot pilot rapidly more likely.

DARPA has spent tens of millions having aerospace and automation companies develop robots for older cockpits, in their ALIAS program. These robots visually watch the instruments, all of them, all the time. If the flap display starts to show a flap asymmetry, it will be noticed and dealt with immediately, without missing a level off or turn. Flat panel or round "steam" dials, it doesn't matter, the robot vision systems can watch and interpret them with perfection and consistency. They can read instructions off CPDLC displays, and even type out responses with their robot grippers. They don't need a connection to the airplane other than power, or to a pilot in a trailer in the desert. They can't be hacked. They can be sent instructions by the captain or ATC, and they can be set up to respond to encrypted instructions from pilots on the ground.

There are stunning videos on YouTube of these robots flying, they are very good. But those robots are obsolete, improvements are happening quickly. These ALIAS robots used to be pretty bad, lots of hand-made parts prone to fail and expensive. The newer ones are mostly off-the-shelf industrial robots, extremely reliable and precise, and relatively cheap. And they can be purchased in huge numbers rapidly, when the industry starts using them.

You guys have no idea how ready these robots are. They do a lot of things better than a human pilot possibly can. And they are improving rapidly. They are getting more powerful vision systems that can watch for ground and air traffic, weather, terrain. They can use that to navigate visually if needed, looking through clouds in spectrums we can't see in, setting up a glidepath visually by looking at the runway.

This is all waiting for the right moment now, it is ready. That right moment will be when the aviation industry convinces Congress and the FAA to approve it. Congress is quick to approve things that the economy needs and voters/contributors want. This pilot shortage is going to be huge and rapid, I predict Congress will make the necessary changes within three years, and robots in cargo right seats will be soon after. We won't need them in passenger airlines for a while after if that puts enough cargo pilots on the streets to keep pilot costs down.

After reading more into the ALIAS program and understanding the exponential nature of technological growth, no way we make it 20 years as cargo pilots like I've been thinking. The leap ALIAS has made in the past 2 years is unbelievable. Just imagine 10 more years of exponential advancement...we're toast!

I disagree. I may have a somewhat rare perspective on this in that I came from the ISR aviation world initially, and also flew unmanned aircraft in the Military. I then went on to IARPA where I worked on unmanned programs. I was lucky to get back in the cockpit, and go to law school. Anyway, with that being said... I am of the opinion that our children may face the threat of pilots being replaced in the 121 world. We will not, for liability reasons above all others.

We won't need them in passenger airlines for a while after if that puts enough cargo pilots on the streets to keep pilot costs down.


Hahahahahahahahahahahahahahahahaha....There's always a future as a,comedian.

You flew drones. Unmanned aircraft. That isn't what ALIAS is about. ALIAS keeps at least one live pilot, as another level of protection and for liability reasons. ALIAS and automation is advancing rapidly in capability, most people have no idea how capable robot systems have gotten in just the last year, even the past few months. Unless you are working in the industry, you have no idea. I work in the industry, and I'm blown away by advances, constantly. People bring in new inventions, vastly improved versions of what we have been using, and even my automation engineers are shocked at what these new products are capable of.

Pilots almost universally think they know what automation can and can't do in an airplane. Based on what? The skills and knowledge to fly airplanes? Or primitive drones?

The only people who have any incentive to protect the careers of pilots, are pilots. Pretty much everyone else will benefit from your pay going down or your hours going up, or you getting displaced by automation. If you stick your heads in the sand, nobody will be watching or resisting this change. If you are a senior captain, I guess no worries. You will probably make it to retirement without much loss.

I think we will all agree that the limitation isn't really the technology but what the public allows. Public perception in how safe the automation is has a lot more to do with how other automation projects progress. Until cars, trains and buses make significant moves I can't see large aircraft going that way. Only time will tell... keep this thread going for the next 20 years.