newpilot45

Hello everyone,

last month or so I've been pretty curious about learning to become a pilot. I'm currently 31, about to turn 32, and i'm thinking about dropping everything to possibly start training to become a pilot. But I have some questions and concerns.

The Automation and future of pilot jobs is a real concern to me say 10-20 years down the road. Seeing how fast the Automobile industry is coming along as well as articles about airplane automation and possibly getting rid of the co-pilot and maybe even the pilot one day. How safe are these jobs in the future? I put in all this time and money to train and be one day replaced by robots, well its hard pill to swallow to get into the industry. What do you all think about the reality of automation and how it will affect pilots lives? I've read pilots could one day just sit in an office and remotely control the planes, sometimes several at a time, and personally I'm not interested in this at all.

Also when I was 19-21 I got into some trouble with the law over 10 years ago. I got a dui, and a criminal trespass charge. I'm in the process of expunging these cases right now so that they will not show on my record or criminal databases. Do I need to worry about anything once this has taken place?

Thanks

EMAW

As far as automation goes, I’d be willing to bet we will not see wide spread use of fully automated commercial aircraft in our lifetime. As far as the history, better to consult AOPA, or an aviation knowledgeable lawyer.

VegasChris

I am your age. I have a full time career in another field, but I also have the time off to go full speed ahead with pilot training and should have my PPL next month. Automation is out there, but as my training progresses I have found that there are too many variables each time I fly for a robot or for any piece of technology to handle. Like the post above said- probably not in our lifetime. Also ask yourself if you would pay money to get on a giant metal tube with wings and engines and be transported at a very rapid speed all controlled by a machine. I don't think I would ($100k teslas have crashed on autopilot a few times)

Your history- do a search or look a few threads down about the DUI from 10 years ago. Also even if you get it expunged the federal government including the FAA can see it. Check with the AME when you get your medical done

rickair7777

You will not likely live long enough to see less than two pilots in airliners. I've written numerous explanations of all the factors involved, if you search for it. Keep in mind that airline managers are perfectly happy to have academics and manufacturers talk about and "explore" unmanned airliners, because it makes labor worried.

Bottom line... could it be done today? Probably. But only if the government spent trillions on a manhattan project which would serve no purpose other than to put a few thousand pilots out of work, and make airline managers richer.

You'll see unmanned trucks first... much simpler technical problem, much lower safety ramifications, and there are many millions of truck drivers in the US. If you can put millions of drivers out of work, that saves a LOT of money for managers and shareholders. Also existing trucks can be retrofitted for unmanned ops, airliners can not, they would have to be custom-designed from scratch due to very tight design tolerances and the need for additional redundant systems (airliners can't just pull over by the side of the road if a system malfunctions).

Regarding the DUI. Yes get it expunged, but DO NOT assume that it will be expunged from the FBI database. Most employers do not have access to that, but airlines do because they have to comply with TSA SIDA background check requirements. Conventional wisdom is do not ever lie to an airline... they often do detailed background checks AFTER you show up for class, and if you get caught lying you'll be fired from a 121 operator. Since all 121 employment has mandatory federal reporting requirements (PRIA), you'll be effectively blacklisted from airline employment (except mesa).

Since you were young when you had the issues, there's a good chance that by the time you apply to majors in your late 30's that those issues will be a minor speedbump. You'll likely get called later than another pilot with equal qualifications but a clean record, and you'll want to get some pre-interview counselling so you know how to address those issues. Also... keep a clean record, absolutely no legal issues, and try real hard to avoid any training problems.

tomgoodman

Do not drop everything, but do take a “discovery flight”. If you like it, take a lesson or two, but don’t sign up for an expensive training program just yet.

https://www.thebalance.com/taking-a-...-expect-282903

sourdough44

I'm not worried about automation or pilotless cockpits replacing me anytime soon, 20+ years out. How are those driverless cars doing?

The rest is up to you.

galaxy flyer

Then again, driverless cars are all the rage. “Maximum” Bob Lutz of GM, BMW, Ford, Chrysler and USMC pilot says cars are much harder problem for automation. I’d believe him, as planes have other means of separation, no unpredictable pedestrians, cyclists, trains, idiot drivers and failing objects to contend with.

That’s not to gainsay the issues of UAV (single pilot plus ground back-up guidance) certification and acceptance.

GF

rickair7777

Cars have some environmental complexities which airplanes don't. But airplanes have unique environmental complexities... TS for example, reading a radar is art as well as science. If you get trapped in a low fuel state do you try to top it, fly through it, or risk a flame out and off-field landing? Those are VERY hard problems for automation, much harder than discriminating between road hazards and optical illusions.

Also cars can fail-passive, as long as they pull off to the side, or even just stop on the road, activate the hazard lights, and phone for a tow. Airplanes have to fail operational in ALL cases, and a great deal of that redundancy today is provided by pilots. Buffering automation redundancy without pilots will cost $$$ and and weight, which costs even more $$$ and fuel, which costs still more $$$. I also don't believe that artificial intelligence is sophisticated enough to replace pilot judgement at this point. I have relevant education and experience in this area, and I doubt you could find anyone with equivalent or better credentials who would disagree with me. If anyone who knew what they were talking about could do it, they would have already done it.

Drones are irrelevant, they're expendable. The DoD lost a huge number of preds to accidents, and they were still more than cost effective. That won't work for airliners, the public has developed an expectation that they'll survive each flight.

Fundamentally it's not about technology, it's about the cost of technology vs. the cost of risk. Way too expensive at this point. There's a hard lateral limit in that the FAA mandate is to accept no reduction in safety, so safety trends generally only move in direction... and certifying the precise level of safety of an AI is a real problem. The FAA will not take any risks with that, so they'll need some pretty darn good tech... or a directive from congress to just do it anyway.

galaxy flyer

I agree with all your points, Rickair777, especially the cost vs. reward calculation is weighted toward keeping the pilots. However, I remember navs in the overseas airlines and I was a F/E and remember the three-man committed deciding the issue of two-pilot cockpits. Look at where UAVs have gone in ten years—AR, shipboard traps. Technology has a habit of winning out on the cost argument. It’ll happen unless it doesn’t.

To the OP, I wouldn’t worry about simply because it’s unforeseeable and you can’t change it anyway. Flying is journey, NOT a destination.

GF

rickair7777

I think it will happen, but from an economic and regulatory perspective it's not happening in the next 40+ years.

The next big changes coming in airline aviation will be highly optimized flight routes and paths (enabled by GNSS and algorithm-driven flight management) and extreme efficiency gains enabled by radical changes to airliner structural designs. Engines will keep improving incrementally. I know this because there's a government road-map and timeline to develop these things to practical maturity, and money being spent today. Saving 60% fuel burn and big noise reductions is achievable and will provide clear environmental (as well as cost) benefits.

The government has no project to modify aircraft and the NAS to get rid of pilots, which would provide no benefit to the government. And the government will be in no hurry to encourage or authorize any regulatory changes to support that. There's no upside for them, just plenty of risk... political, financial, and safety.

Airline managers would of course love it, but their pee brains don't think beyond their next earnings call and bonuses. They're not in business to ensure their successors reap windfalls decades down the road.