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Quote:

Originally Posted by galaxy flyer (Post 2479183)

While I agreen with your rosy outlook, it always helps to have a “red” team look.

Factors that could change the picture:

Upgauging on many routes. Using less frequency and larger planes would be more efficient and use fewer pilots. We may have reached the end of frequency competition.
JV deals like the many DL JVs could “out source” jobs.
Reduction in RJ flying providing fewer paths to majors. That could lead to ab initio programs
Black swan event like another 9/11. Might not furlough but another decade of stagnation.

None are reasons for leaving or not entering aviation, but possibilities.

GF

Always possible.

Up-gauging is likely, and likely good. If it's in response to increasing pax numbers pushing airport/ATC capacity, that's good for everybody. More revenue, and better pay for up-gauged pilots.

If it's in response to pilot shortage, bad for pax (who lose frequency), but good for pilots who get better paying equipment.

But near-term up-gauging is also limited by how fast Boeing and Airbus can build planes, can't happen overnight, they're both already sold out for years to come.

Black swan event? 20-25% furlough? AA’s retirements are 20% in the next 4 yrs and 25% in the next five years. That risk, while not zero, is perhaps the lowest it’s ever been.

Didn’t say furlough, but a black swan could lead to no hiring and stagnation.

GF

With no hiring and no furloughs figuring out the stagnation gets more involved. At AA, due to the number of retirements, if the airline shrank by 25% via attrition in the next five years, the junior CA today would drop by approx 1250 numbers for a net drop of the junior ÇA of approximately 250 per year. Similar changes will occur in all seats.

With retirements running approx 80/20 CA vs FO, and the airline manned at 46/64 CA/FO, the retirement bubble is generating new dynamics that will mitigate some or the stagnation or furlough impacts.

Each airline’s retirement numbers change the risk of stagnation or furloughs. Low retirements numbers are a higher risk and high retirement numbers mitigate some of the risk.