RJ to U/LCC with no TPIC Theory
#11
While I agreen with your rosy outlook, it always helps to have a “red” team look.
Factors that could change the picture:
None are reasons for leaving or not entering aviation, but possibilities.
GF
Factors that could change the picture:
- Upgauging on many routes. Using less frequency and larger planes would be more efficient and use fewer pilots. We may have reached the end of frequency competition.
- JV deals like the many DL JVs could “out source” jobs.
- Reduction in RJ flying providing fewer paths to majors. That could lead to ab initio programs
Black swan event like another 9/11. Might not furlough but another decade of stagnation.
None are reasons for leaving or not entering aviation, but possibilities.
GF
Up-gauging is likely, and likely good. If it's in response to increasing pax numbers pushing airport/ATC capacity, that's good for everybody. More revenue, and better pay for up-gauged pilots.
If it's in response to pilot shortage, bad for pax (who lose frequency), but good for pilots who get better paying equipment.
But near-term up-gauging is also limited by how fast Boeing and Airbus can build planes, can't happen overnight, they're both already sold out for years to come.
#14
Gets Weekends Off
Joined APC: Dec 2007
Position: Window seat
Posts: 5,157
With no hiring and no furloughs figuring out the stagnation gets more involved. At AA, due to the number of retirements, if the airline shrank by 25% via attrition in the next five years, the junior CA today would drop by approx 1250 numbers for a net drop of the junior ÇA of approximately 250 per year. Similar changes will occur in all seats.
With retirements running approx 80/20 CA vs FO, and the airline manned at 46/64 CA/FO, the retirement bubble is generating new dynamics that will mitigate some or the stagnation or furlough impacts.
Each airline’s retirement numbers change the risk of stagnation or furloughs. Low retirements numbers are a higher risk and high retirement numbers mitigate some of the risk.
With retirements running approx 80/20 CA vs FO, and the airline manned at 46/64 CA/FO, the retirement bubble is generating new dynamics that will mitigate some or the stagnation or furlough impacts.
Each airline’s retirement numbers change the risk of stagnation or furloughs. Low retirements numbers are a higher risk and high retirement numbers mitigate some of the risk.
Last edited by Sliceback; 12-08-2017 at 04:55 AM. Reason: Added - each airline’s...
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