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American, Delta, UAL Retirement Graph

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American, Delta, UAL Retirement Graph

Old 05-03-2018, 09:27 AM
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Default American, Delta, UAL Retirement Graph

This graph shows why you want to get competitive quals for the majors before the retirements slow down:


Big 3 Retirements by Robert Harris, on Flickr

OK, that worked. Made a fake name account on Flickr for posting photos to public message boards. Had to edit this post a number of times to get it right.
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Old 05-03-2018, 09:46 AM
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2018 is a good year for retirements. 2037 will also be a good year.

The next 15 years will be great.

The next five years fantastic.

No bad news in sight, although there has to be a slowdown due to an economic downturn in there somewhere. Also always the possibility of something out of left field like a 9/11, although if Junior really swears off nukes and reconciles with RoK, that probably removes the most obvious Black Swan.
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Old 05-03-2018, 09:52 AM
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At NetJets we just had an 18 year Captain in his mid-40's post his farewell message. He was tight lipped about where he was going, but wherever it was the numbers and lifestyle worked better for him.
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Old 05-03-2018, 12:51 PM
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Stand to be corrected, but it looks like post-2025 becomes a stagnation period until the present hiring boom retires. DL has probably already hired their top paying captains thru 2037. I know 5 DL guys in their 30s already flying as captain. Yes, still a good career after 2025, but stagnation always follows booms.

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Old 05-03-2018, 03:54 PM
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Originally Posted by galaxy flyer View Post
Stand to be corrected, but it looks like post-2025 becomes a stagnation period until the present hiring boom retires. DL has probably already hired their top paying captains thru 2037. I know 5 DL guys in their 30s already flying as captain. Yes, still a good career after 2025, but stagnation always follows booms.

GF
600-700 pilots per year is hardly stagnation.
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Old 05-07-2018, 07:23 AM
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600-700, even a thousand a year across the three legacies 40,000 total pilot population is not stagnation, but pretty close. Only 2% per year and that’s a 20 year projection.

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Old 05-07-2018, 10:14 AM
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Originally Posted by galaxy flyer View Post
600-700, even a thousand a year across the three legacies 40,000 total pilot population is not stagnation, but pretty close. Only 2% per year and that’s a 20 year projection.

Gf
It's 2000+ a year just from the big 3 airlines. The problem is not just warm bodies to fill those seats, but the training pipeline, sim availability, etc. And many of those warm bodies will come from Regional and Corporate, making staffing even harder than it is now.
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Old 05-07-2018, 11:34 PM
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Originally Posted by galaxy flyer View Post
600-700, even a thousand a year across the three legacies 40,000 total pilot population is not stagnation, but pretty close. Only 2% per year and that’s a 20 year projection.

Gf
3000 a year is just under 10%, you call that "stagnation"?
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Old 05-08-2018, 06:01 AM
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Looking at AirBear’s chart, 20 years out at 2037; the three legacies are retiring about a 1,000 that year. That’s about 2.5%. In any case, 20 years is a long time; there can be loads of changes in staffing. Retirements don’t have to equal hiring.

Look at the area under the years of 2018 thru 2026, those hires are the captains for the 2027-2037 hires.

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Old 05-08-2018, 07:57 AM
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Originally Posted by galaxy flyer View Post
Looking at AirBear’s chart, 20 years out at 2037; the three legacies are retiring about a 1,000 that year. That’s about 2.5%. In any case, 20 years is a long time; there can be loads of changes in staffing. Retirements don’t have to equal hiring.

Look at the area under the years of 2018 thru 2026, those hires are the captains for the 2027-2037 hires.

GF
Yes, so around 10% a year moving up from FO to CA. That's awesome. You'll gain seniority very quickly, for the next 20 years or so.
This assumes no growth, but also no 9/11 v2.
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