American, Delta, UAL Retirement Graph
#1
Gets Weekends Off
Thread Starter
Joined APC: Dec 2017
Position: Retired NJA & AA
Posts: 1,907
American, Delta, UAL Retirement Graph
This graph shows why you want to get competitive quals for the majors before the retirements slow down:
Big 3 Retirements by Robert Harris, on Flickr
OK, that worked. Made a fake name account on Flickr for posting photos to public message boards. Had to edit this post a number of times to get it right.
Big 3 Retirements by Robert Harris, on Flickr
OK, that worked. Made a fake name account on Flickr for posting photos to public message boards. Had to edit this post a number of times to get it right.
#2
2018 is a good year for retirements. 2037 will also be a good year.
The next 15 years will be great.
The next five years fantastic.
No bad news in sight, although there has to be a slowdown due to an economic downturn in there somewhere. Also always the possibility of something out of left field like a 9/11, although if Junior really swears off nukes and reconciles with RoK, that probably removes the most obvious Black Swan.
The next 15 years will be great.
The next five years fantastic.
No bad news in sight, although there has to be a slowdown due to an economic downturn in there somewhere. Also always the possibility of something out of left field like a 9/11, although if Junior really swears off nukes and reconciles with RoK, that probably removes the most obvious Black Swan.
#3
Gets Weekends Off
Thread Starter
Joined APC: Dec 2017
Position: Retired NJA & AA
Posts: 1,907
At NetJets we just had an 18 year Captain in his mid-40's post his farewell message. He was tight lipped about where he was going, but wherever it was the numbers and lifestyle worked better for him.
#4
Stand to be corrected, but it looks like post-2025 becomes a stagnation period until the present hiring boom retires. DL has probably already hired their top paying captains thru 2037. I know 5 DL guys in their 30s already flying as captain. Yes, still a good career after 2025, but stagnation always follows booms.
GF
GF
#5
In a land of unicorns
Joined APC: Apr 2014
Position: Whale FO
Posts: 6,406
Stand to be corrected, but it looks like post-2025 becomes a stagnation period until the present hiring boom retires. DL has probably already hired their top paying captains thru 2037. I know 5 DL guys in their 30s already flying as captain. Yes, still a good career after 2025, but stagnation always follows booms.
GF
GF
#7
Gets Weekends Off
Thread Starter
Joined APC: Dec 2017
Position: Retired NJA & AA
Posts: 1,907
It's 2000+ a year just from the big 3 airlines. The problem is not just warm bodies to fill those seats, but the training pipeline, sim availability, etc. And many of those warm bodies will come from Regional and Corporate, making staffing even harder than it is now.
#8
In a land of unicorns
Joined APC: Apr 2014
Position: Whale FO
Posts: 6,406
#9
Looking at AirBear’s chart, 20 years out at 2037; the three legacies are retiring about a 1,000 that year. That’s about 2.5%. In any case, 20 years is a long time; there can be loads of changes in staffing. Retirements don’t have to equal hiring.
Look at the area under the years of 2018 thru 2026, those hires are the captains for the 2027-2037 hires.
GF
Look at the area under the years of 2018 thru 2026, those hires are the captains for the 2027-2037 hires.
GF
#10
In a land of unicorns
Joined APC: Apr 2014
Position: Whale FO
Posts: 6,406
Looking at AirBear’s chart, 20 years out at 2037; the three legacies are retiring about a 1,000 that year. That’s about 2.5%. In any case, 20 years is a long time; there can be loads of changes in staffing. Retirements don’t have to equal hiring.
Look at the area under the years of 2018 thru 2026, those hires are the captains for the 2027-2037 hires.
GF
Look at the area under the years of 2018 thru 2026, those hires are the captains for the 2027-2037 hires.
GF
This assumes no growth, but also no 9/11 v2.
Thread
Thread Starter
Forum
Replies
Last Post