Voski

The stats are staggering:

By 2028, 28,274 pilots will retire -- which doesn’t account for other U/LCCs (i.e. Spirit, Allegiant, Frontier and JetBlue) or regional lifers and the corporate world.

By 2032, a whopping 38,459 pilots will retire out of the 60,043 pilots on the seniority list today... that is 64%.

By 2032, 76% of current pilots at AA will retire and 80% of UPS will retire.

A lot can happen that can disrupt the growth or contraction of the industry -- consolidation, economic crisis or downturn, etc. -- but, even if the 'age 70' becomes a thing, the retirements will happen and there will be opportunities.

What historical evidence is there, if any, for how this may affect competitive minimums to get hired at a major carrier?

Retirements are just starting to pick up and it is still pretty competitive, especially among civilian applicants, but I wonder how long it will be before the applicant pool thins out enough that the competitive times and 'stats' drop significantly (if much at all).

BeechedJet

The airlines are going to run out of candidates that don’t have four letters of recommendations with one being from someone who doesn’t work in aviation but is a close personal friend of at least ten years.

captjns

Good news... based on retirement figures, airlines won’t have to furlough with the next recession.

Rahlifer

I’ve been on this miserable rock for close to fifty years and I’ve been hearing about the massive pilot shortage since the day I crawled outta my mommas crotch. 🙄🙄😃😃

rickair7777

I think it's going to happen this time, baring some global catastrophe.

galaxy flyer

The pilot population is anything but static. The military alone turns out 2,000-3,000 pilots a year, by all services. Starts are way up, granted pretty high attrition for various reasons between starts and ATP. There are, right now, loads of pilots outside that 60,000 number sitting on the sidelines in poor to great jobs that could be hireable—college, ATP, no black marks. I can name without much work a couple a dozen local non-airline hireable pilots—mostly corporate because that’s my background.

It’s getting tighter in some areas, but majors and legacies will have their pick for a long time.

GF

ZeroTT

By 2028, some boys still singing soprano will be unrestricted ATP's.

By 2032, some kids wearing pullups tonight will be CFI's.

Defininitely a lot of turnover, but 13 years is a long time also.

And no, I don't think there's any historical precedent.

Ni hao

67 or 70 it's coming

galaxy flyer

No historical precedent? 1964-67-ish was exactly like this—hiring was a vertical line—advertisements in Flying magazine, zero-hero paid by the carrier, retire as a millionaire as carriers wildly expanded with new jets. I knew guys from that era that were hired with 200 hours in a Luscombe, one who was hired at UAL on a cocktail hour bet.

It’s always gonna be different the “next time”, except it ain’t.

GF

baseball

Apparently the science is in. Too much cognitive decay. Would be insane for FAA testing on an individual level. Some guys can't make it to 65. Remember 60 was the benchmark forever. Heck, the ATC folks still retire at 55.