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Old 01-13-2020, 02:35 PM   #21  
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Originally Posted by hindsight2020 View Post
Regarding military production woes, you guys are working with dated info. We're in the process of diluting the training pipeline in order to increase military production without reopening UPT locations (Moody et al). And I say 'we' not because I advocate for the kind of dilutions presently occurring, but merely because pilot production is my wheel house in the USAF and has been for the last 9 years. I have another decade of that to go believe it or not...my "CAF" career was too a casualty of the Lost Decade.

At any rate, to the point of this thread, yes, even that inflection in production won't yield majors-competitive exiting pilots for another decade. But Stop loss won't happen though. AF plays "run the clock offense" very well. The airline hiring pace will trip up with the recession in the 2020s, and that will cover the DOD's bluff, just like it did post vietnam and post Desert Storm I. Mil guys will boomerang like they did in the early 00s.

I still don't think 90% of people out there will make 300K in for 10 years. You can't cherry pick, you gotta include the lost decade folks in with the 26 yo 2014-2020 DL hire outcomes. When you normalize for the sine wave, it's nowhere near 90% on a generational basis. More like 50 or less. ATP shadow inventory stats bear this out clearly.
Exactly, take up flying if you really want to fly more than anything else. Take it up because you want to work 12 days a month for 350k and you will likely be disappointed.
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Old 01-13-2020, 02:57 PM   #22  
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I feel like I now want to apply to a legacy just to see if I’m 1 in 1000. Those kind of odds could make a man feel special.
Well, just talk to a Delta pilot and you’ll see that they do...
I kid, I kid. Sort of.
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Old 01-13-2020, 03:58 PM   #23  
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Quote:
Originally Posted by hindsight2020 View Post
Regarding military production woes, you guys are working with dated info. We're in the process of diluting the training pipeline in order to increase military production without reopening UPT locations (Moody et al). And I say 'we' not because I advocate for the kind of dilutions presently occurring, but merely because pilot production is my wheel house in the USAF and has been for the last 9 years. I have another decade of that to go believe it or not...my "CAF" career was too a casualty of the Lost Decade.

At any rate, to the point of this thread, yes, even that inflection in production won't yield majors-competitive exiting pilots for another decade. But Stop loss won't happen though. AF plays "run the clock offense" very well. The airline hiring pace will trip up with the recession in the 2020s, and that will cover the DOD's bluff, just like it did post vietnam and post Desert Storm I. Mil guys will boomerang like they did in the early 00s.

I still don't think 90% of people out there will make 300K in for 10 years. You can't cherry pick, you gotta include the lost decade folks in with the 26 yo 2014-2020 DL hire outcomes. When you normalize for the sine wave, it's nowhere near 90% on a generational basis. More like 50 or less. ATP shadow inventory stats bear this out clearly.
My statistical guestimate was for new entrants today, all of whom should have better opportunities than those of is from previous eras.

That's assuming no economic or industry catastrophe, those can happen but are impossible to predict so you kind of have to take your chances, or not (Nuclear war, asteroid impact, Greta elected president of the EU, etc). Retirements will dilute the routine mild recession that everybody said should have started several years ago.
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Old 01-13-2020, 04:01 PM   #24  
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Exactly, take up flying if you really want to fly more than anything else. Take it up because you want to work 12 days a month for 350k and you will likely be disappointed.
That's always been the case, you should definitely like to fly. I always wanted to.

But my decision to fly professionally (vs other careers) was based on economic and lifestyle factors, and I had to do some math to help quantify and visualize the road ahead. You gotta use head as well as your heart.

Despite all the ups and downs my original math ultimately worked out pretty well, except for five years for age 65 and a few more for the 08 recession.
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Old 01-15-2020, 12:09 PM   #25  
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Keep your IT sales job and start flight training part time. Get your Private Pilot's License. Maybe even start instrument training. Then decide if you want to do it for a career. It's gonna be expensive, and pay is lousy for 2-3 years after getting your commercial pilot's license. But once you hit the magic 1500 hour mark and get the ATP rating things will start looking up.

Your going to have to either go into deep debt for flight training or use a lot of savings if you have that. It's a very long term payback thing. That's something you need to discuss with your fiance. You might even want to slow down and keep the sales job until obtaining your commercial pilot's license. Depends on your financial situation. Also, does your fiance have a decent paying job? See if she's OK with being the primary breadwinner until you get your time in. Show her that in the long run you'll make enough money that she could choose to be a stay-at-home Mom if you guys want kids.
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Old 01-24-2020, 12:06 PM   #26  
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I would disagree. The best time to start training is BEFORE the hiring wave. We are 1/3 of the way into it. By the time the OP realistically finishes training and gets 1500 hours, we will be half way through it. Then the OP still has to gain experience at a regional and by the time they are competitive, the bulk of the retirements will have already happened.

Also, the first 10 years of the career can be rough. You will spend a lot of hours away from home building 1500 hours as an instructor for little pay, then you will spend a couple months away training at a regional, then you will be gone 18 days out of the month (or more), you will most likely be commuting, you will have junior schedule meaning you two will rarely have time off together. And then just as you start to move up in seniority, you can upgrade which will require the entire cycle to start all over again.

This is incorrect. We are not 1/3 of the way into hiring. Most of the hiring just started 2 years ago and the big 3 are hiring 1K pilots a year for the next 10 years. 2/3's of the industry will turn over in the next 10 years. The hiring wave just started.
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