How to Convince the Fiancé?
#11
Odds of getting there for a noob today (college degree and clean record to start with)?
I'd SWAG 70%
Normally it might be 30% without all the retirements.
#13
They have some episodes that discuss this very thing:
Aviation Careers Podcast ? A Podcast about Achieving Your Aviation Career Goals
Aviation Careers Podcast ? A Podcast about Achieving Your Aviation Career Goals
#14
Gets Weekends Off
Joined APC: Sep 2017
Posts: 617
I'd say 90-95% chance actually IF you cast a wider net to include the low/mid tier majors and LCCs like NK and F9, in addition to the legacies.
#15
#16
Layover Master
Joined APC: Jan 2013
Position: Seated
Posts: 4,309
Second, of course the chance is high IF you have a clean record, and IF this or that. That's my point. Most pilots will have a hiccup (or seven)...
The chances of someone starting pilot training today ending up as even a Spirit captain aren't that high. A lot of people wash out of training, or give up to begin with. More run out of money and stop altogether. Others have failures that don't look so pretty. Some get DUI's or in other infractions along the way. Some may have an egregious FAA infraction, or 11 speeding tickets. Some have a fiancee who doesn't support their dream and ends up causing all sorts of troubles... We all know these people, and they aren't becoming United captains anytime soon (or are a LOT less likely).
To anyone starting out right now, day one, I'm saying you have to be committed. In all areas of your life. 9/10 people starting out right now aren't going to become airline captains.
#17
I think you guys were missing my point. I wrote "legacy" pilot for a reason. That's what most new, aspiring aviators think of when picturing themselves jet setting around in their mind's eye. I don't think many set out to become an Allegiant captain, and by no means is that an offense to Allegiant.
Second, of course the chance is high IF you have a clean record, and IF this or that. That's my point. Most pilots will have a hiccup (or seven)...
The chances of someone starting pilot training today ending up as even a Spirit captain aren't that high. A lot of people wash out of training, or give up to begin with. More run out of money and stop altogether. Others have failures that don't look so pretty. Some get DUI's or in other infractions along the way. Some may have an egregious FAA infraction, or 11 speeding tickets. Some have a fiancee who doesn't support their dream and ends up causing all sorts of troubles... We all know these people, and they aren't becoming United captains anytime soon (or are a LOT less likely).
To anyone starting out right now, day one, I'm saying you have to be committed. In all areas of your life. 9/10 people starting out right now aren't going to become airline captains.
The chances of someone starting pilot training today ending up as even a Spirit captain aren't that high. A lot of people wash out of training, or give up to begin with. More run out of money and stop altogether. Others have failures that don't look so pretty. Some get DUI's or in other infractions along the way. Some may have an egregious FAA infraction, or 11 speeding tickets. Some have a fiancee who doesn't support their dream and ends up causing all sorts of troubles... We all know these people, and they aren't becoming United captains anytime soon (or are a LOT less likely).
To anyone starting out right now, day one, I'm saying you have to be committed. In all areas of your life. 9/10 people starting out right now aren't going to become airline captains.
College degree, clean record, normal kind of motivated person with no flight experience: 70% to LCC CA or better (if you catch the wave).
College degree, clean record, completed IOE at a regional: 90% to LCC CA or better. The fallouts will be DUI, medical, multiple training failures down the road, etc.
This assumes that YOU put in the max effort until off probation at the major.. If you don't do that, al bets are off.
I know there are qualified guys at the regionals who can't get a call but I'm pretty sure they will ALL have the opportunity over the next few years (but you HAVE to put in the effort, I know many who don't and they're all enjoying that special experience of seeing their FO's off to the majors).
BTW, the military is tapped out... they simply CANNOT increase training bandwidth without an act of congress and long-term funding for new bases, planes, and IP's. Next step for them will be increased initial obligations and/or STOPLOSS. The military pipeline is actually likely to dwindle down at some point over the next five years.
Last edited by rickair7777; 01-13-2020 at 07:25 AM.
#18
BTW, the military is tapped out... they simply CANNOT increase training bandwidth without an act of congress and long-term funding for new bases, planes, and IP's. Next step for them will be increased initial obligations and/or STOPLOSS. The military pipeline is actually likely to dwindle down at some point over the next five years.
I realize for those who haven’t been in the military or haven’t otherwise studied it it may be difficult to understand. Both the Navy and the Air Force are SHORT pilots. They reduced their historical numbers of authorizations to fund buys of incredibly expensive aircraft (an F-22 cost over $300 million, a B-2 just short of a billion) and they are STILL under authorized strength due to sequestration caused cutbacks and poor retention. Because I’d previous base closures under BRAC, they lack infrastructure and airspace to quickly expand their training. It isn’t just UPT bases, it’s follow on training and seasoning, and not having enough qualified instructors but even if Congress opened up the checkbook right now it woukd take them a few years to START to get well. And all the newbies they might pump in (reservists excepted), you’d still be looking at a ten year lag period for them to serve their ADSC before they would be eligible to separate. AND THAT TIMEFRAME CAN’T be improved much. It isn’t amenable to just throwing money at the problem
It’s sort of like a determined couple who can produce a child in nine months. But nine determined couples can NOT produce a child in one month.
#19
Regarding military production woes, you guys are working with dated info. We're in the process of diluting the training pipeline in order to increase military production without reopening UPT locations (Moody et al). And I say 'we' not because I advocate for the kind of dilutions presently occurring, but merely because pilot production is my wheel house in the USAF and has been for the last 9 years. I have another decade of that to go believe it or not...my "CAF" career was too a casualty of the Lost Decade.
At any rate, to the point of this thread, yes, even that inflection in production won't yield majors-competitive exiting pilots for another decade. But Stop loss won't happen though. AF plays "run the clock offense" very well. The airline hiring pace will trip up with the recession in the 2020s, and that will cover the DOD's bluff, just like it did post vietnam and post Desert Storm I. Mil guys will boomerang like they did in the early 00s.
I still don't think 90% of people out there will make 300K in for 10 years. You can't cherry pick, you gotta include the lost decade folks in with the 26 yo 2014-2020 DL hire outcomes. When you normalize for the sine wave, it's nowhere near 90% on a generational basis. More like 50 or less. ATP shadow inventory stats bear this out clearly.
At any rate, to the point of this thread, yes, even that inflection in production won't yield majors-competitive exiting pilots for another decade. But Stop loss won't happen though. AF plays "run the clock offense" very well. The airline hiring pace will trip up with the recession in the 2020s, and that will cover the DOD's bluff, just like it did post vietnam and post Desert Storm I. Mil guys will boomerang like they did in the early 00s.
I still don't think 90% of people out there will make 300K in for 10 years. You can't cherry pick, you gotta include the lost decade folks in with the 26 yo 2014-2020 DL hire outcomes. When you normalize for the sine wave, it's nowhere near 90% on a generational basis. More like 50 or less. ATP shadow inventory stats bear this out clearly.
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